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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2008-011 Manager - Hertzon Research LLC for Public Survey for Local Rev3 LJHERTZOG RESEARCH FULL SERV/CE RESEARCH CONTRACT/lVG 601 JONES FERRY ROAD, SUITE N7, CARRBORO, NC 2751 O (919) 960-3904 ' W W W. H ERTZOG RESEARCH. CO M 24 January 2008 Mr. Rod Visser Project Manager County of Orange rvisser(a,co.orange.nc.us RE: Proposal to Conduct Citizen Research on Possible Referendum Questions (Quotation 080124-1) Dear Rod: Thank you for giving Hertzog Research the opportunity to work with you on this project • for Orange County. .This letter outlines my understanding of the project specifications, based on our discussion of earlier today, and our proposed timeline and price based on a survey employing an 8-minute questionnaire, and one using a shorter, 5-minute questionnaire as well. Synopsis Our understanding is that Orange County considers it essential to have the results of this survey project available for the Board of County Commissioners' meeting on Tuesday, l9 February 2008. The Orange County government seeks to determine the level of citizen support for two possible tax increases to generate needed revenue, either of which must be authorized by the citizens at referendum: o Aland transfer tax of up to 0.4% on the price of real estate, payable by the seller at the time of sale; and/or o An increase in the sales tax rate of $0.0025, authorized by recent state legislation. • To. Mr. Rod Visser - 2 - County of Orange Referendum Survey Proposal 24 January 2008 In addition, the County wishes to assess: (a) What effect there would be on support for either tax proposal by placing both measures on the ballot at the same time; and (b) Which demographic or attitudinal groups of likely Orange County voters use which media outlets to obtain news and information about local affairs. Assumptions o The questionnaire will be between approximately 5 minutes and 8 minutes in length, with no more than one open-ended verbatim question. o We assume 400 completed interviews with registered Orange County voters who are at least somewhat likely to vote in the primary election currently scheduled for 6 May 2008. The overall margin of error is slightly below +/- 5%. Analysis within a subgroup of one- third of residents (roughly 133 persons) would have a margin of error of about +/- 9%. • o IMPORTANT: Owing to the limited time frame for interviewing, we will make our best effort to obtain 400 interviews; but if the deadline makes this impossible, we shall obtain as close to 400 interviews as is possible. The overall margin of error for 350 completed interviews would be +l- 5.5%. o A random sample of registered voters will be drawn from the master voter registration list provided by the Orange County Board of Elections, from all voter precincts in rough proportion to each precinct's share of registered voters in the county as a whole. We will match these sample names against telephone listings to determine current home phone numbers, to the extent current listed numbers are available. o Respondents reached will be screened to confurn whether they still live in Orange County, in which zip code area, and whether they are at least somewhat likely to vote in the May 2008 primary election. o We shall monitor and make adjustments in respondent selection to assure that those contacted roughly reflect the registered voters of the county with regard to gender, race, age group, residence in a given zip code area, and, if the County so desires, residence within a given municipality. To. Mr.' Rod Visser - 3 - • County of Orange Referendum Survey Proposal 24 January 2008 o Once interviewing is completed, preliminary top-line results will be delivered within 24 hours. o The other deliverables will require 4. to 5 business days to produce, to allow sufficient time for coding of verbatim responses, accurate output and tabulation of data, data analysis, complete and accurate reporting, and quality assurance at all of these steps. o Results will be delivered to you or your designee, for presentation to the Board of County Commissioners, in a presentation-quality MS PowerPoint_report in time for the Board's meeting on Tuesday, 19 February. Project Timeline s • Hertzog Research will work with Orange County on questionnaire drafting, and will obtain the most recent list of registered voters from the Board of Elections. o IMPORTANT: In order to meet Orange County's deadline for report delivery, anal questionnaire approval must be obtained no later than I2: 00 neon on Wednesday, 30 January 2008. No further substantive changes to the questionnaire, other than simple text corrections, can be made after that time without slippage in the deadline and an increase in cosh • Assuming the above deadline is kept, interviewing will begin Wednesday, 6 February, and will continue through Tuesday evening, 12 February, unless the quota of 400 interviews is met before that time. • Hertzog Research will deliver to Orange County a brief "top-line" report of preliminary results no later than end-of--day Wednesday, 13 February. • Hertzog Research will deliver the draft PowerPoint report, and a set of clean, complete, and correct data tables, to Orange County on Tuesday, 19 February, in time for the Board of County Commissioners' meeting. • I will also be happy to meet with your senior management team to discuss the findings, work with your team on desired revisions, and to present or assist in presenting the findings (if you so desire) to your Board of County Commissioners. C~ To. Mr. Rod Visser _ 4 _ (p County of Orange Referendum Survey Proposal 24 January 2008 Price and Terms Based on the assumptions above, our all-inclusive price for this project would be: OPTION 1: For a questionnaire of roughly 8 minutes in length, $11,675.00. OPTION 2: For a questionnaire of roughly 5 minutes in length, $9,985.00. These prices include all quesiionnaaire development, project management, programming, purchase of the voter registration list, sample selection and telephone number matching, interviewer training on the project, telephone interviewing, coding and full reporting of verbatim responses, data management and data deliverables, statistical analysis, reporting of results, and quality assurance at all stages of the project. One-half of the agreed amount (either Option 1 or Option 2) will be due and payable upon acceptance of this proposal, and the remaining one-half will be due and payable upon delivery of the draft PowerPoint report. Teams are 30-day net. NOTE: These prices Assume 400 completed interviews In the event we cannot obtain 400 completed interviews because of the abbreviated deadline, the prices above will be reduced by X11.27 per interview not completed (assuming an 8-minute questionnaire), or $9.75 per interview not completed (assuming a S-minute questionnaire). Such deductions will be made fmm the, final invoice amount Please let me lrnow when you've had a chance to review this proposal in detail and advise me as soon as possible of any needed changes in assumptions, deliverables, or schedule. You may contact me by phone at 919-960-3904, or by reply email at marknahertzogresearch.com. Thanks very. much again for considering us, and I look forward to (hopefully) working with you on this _ project. Yours sincerely, Accepted for Orange County: ./~~ _ ~~'~~-~ Mark Wm. Hertzog, Ph.D., Principal Laura M. Blackmon Hertzog Research, LLC County Mana er Date: a - ,~ 9 :7 • HERTZOG RESEARCH, LLC PROJECT N0.8005 ORANGE COUNTY GOVERNMENT CITIZEN SURVEY ON TAX MEASURES FGI #163-1007 February 2008 Final Questionnaires Wednesday, 30 January 2008 METHODOLOGICAL NOTES Required: 400 completed interviews total (or as close thereto as possible within the time frame available for interviewing) from registered and likely voters in Orange County. Screeners below are to verify that we have the right respondent (the registered voter, not for example a teenage child of the same name), that s/he lives in and is registered to vote in Orange County, and will or may vote in the May 2008 primary election. uotas: Completed interviews should closely approximate Orange County's actual voter turnout in the November 2006 general election, with regard to age categories, race, and gender. It should also approximate the Orange County voter registration list with regard to geographic dispersion. Sample Source: A random sample of several thousand registered voters, roughly proportional • to each precinct's, share of the total county voter registration base, will be drawn by FGI Research from the registered voters' database provided by the Orange County Board of . Elections. Phone numbers will be appended to the sample by FGI Research. Fields Needed in Sample File: "NAME: FIRST," "NAME: LAST," "ZIP," "PRECINCT," "AGE," "RACE CODE," "GENDER CODE," "MUNICIPALITY." QUESTIONNAIRE SCRIPT INTROl: Hello, may I please speak with [RESTORE "NAME: FIRST" AND "NAME: LAST" FROM SAMPLE]? [IF ASKED WHY CALLING:] I'm calling on behalf of the Orange County government. We're conducting a brief survey of Orange County residents. This will only take about five minutes. 1. Yes, speaking [CONTINUE WITH 1NTR02.] 2. Yes, available [CONTINUE WITH 1NTR02 WHEN RESPONDENT COMES TO PHONE.] 3. No, not available [DETERMINE CALLBACK AVAILABILITY] • Orange County Sales Tax Survey, 2008 Final Questionnaire 30 January 2008 4. Don't live in Orange County [T'HANI~ AND TERMINATE][CODE AS INELIGIBLE] 5. Respondent named does not live here .[THANK AND TERM CODE AS NQ? - NO NAMED RESPONDENT] 6. DK/NA/Refused [THANK AND TERMINATE] [CODE AS REFUSAL] INTR02: Hello, my name is ,and I'm calling on behalf of the Orange County government. We're conducting a brief survey of Orange County residents concerning tax proposals that may go before the voters this May. This survey will only take about five minutes of your time, and your individual answers will be kept strictly confidential. Would you have a few minutes to help us out? 1. Conduct interview now [CONTINUE WITH S 1 ] 2. Schedule interview for another time [SCHEDULE CALLBACK] 3. [DK/NA/REF] [THANK AND TERMINATE] [CODE AS REFUSAL] ScreeninE Questions S 1. First, do you currently live in Orange County? 1: Yes 2. No [SKIP TO TERMINATE SCRIPT] 3. DKJNA S2. What is your home zip code? 1. 27231 10. 27541 - 2. 27243 11. 27572_ _ 3. 27278 12. 27583 4. 27302 13. 27599 5. 27340 14. 27705 6. 27510 15. 27707 '7. 27514 16. 27712 8. 27516 17. Other [SKIP TO TERMINATE SCRIPT] 9. 27517 S3. And are you at least 18 years of age? 1. Yes 2. No [SKIP TO TERMINATE SCRIPT] 3. DK/NA • Drafted by Hertzog Research, LLC - 2 - Orange County Sales Tax Survey, 2008 . Final Questionnaire 30 January 2008 S4. Are you currently registered to vote in Orange County? 1. Yes 2. No [SKIP TO TERMINATE SCRIPT] 3. DK/NA/Refused [SKIP TO TERMINATE SCRIPT] 55.. As you may know, there is a primary election scheduled for Tuesday, May 6~'. How likely are you to vote in the May 6th primary? Would you say that you... (READ LIST; SELECT ONE. D.O NOT READ SII~P INSTRUCTIONS.) 1. Defmitely will vote [SKIP TO Ql INTRO] 2. Probably will vote [SKIP TO Q 1 INTRO] 3. ~ Might or might not vote [SKIP TO Ql INTRO] 4. Probably will not vote, or [GO TO TERMINATE SCRII'T] 5. Definitely will not vote [GO TO TERMINATE SCRIPT] TERMINATE SCRIPT:. Unfortunately, we're only interviewing likely voters who live in Orange County. Thank you very much for your time; that's all the questions I have. Have a nice day/evening. • Tau Pro osals Q1 INTRO. I'd like to ask you about a couple of tax proposals that maybe placed on the May 6th primary election ballot. Neither would take effect unless they are approved by Orange County voters at the May primary. Q1. One proposal is to increase the sales tax on NON-food items by one-quarter of 1%. That is, you would pay an extra 25 cents on a $100 purchase of NON-food items. There would be NO sales tax increase on food. It's estimated that this tax would raise $3 million in the first full year, and COULD keep properly taxes below what they would be otherwise. If this were placed on the ballot, how would you vote on aone-quarter of 1% increase in the sales tax on NON-food items? (PROMPT IF NEEDED:) Would you vote "yes" or "no"? 1. Yes [SKIP TO Q3] 2. No [SKIl' TO Q2] 3..DK/Not Sure [GO TO Q1A] 4. NA/Refused [SKIP TO Q3] . Drafted by Hertzog Research, LLC - 3 - Orange County Sales Tax Survey, 2008 `~ • Final Questionnaire 30 January 2008 Q lA. Would you say you lean more toward voting "yes," or toward voting "no," on the sales tax, or are you really not sure? 1. Lean Yes [SKIP TO Q3] 2. Lean No [GO TO Q2] 3. Really not sure [SKIP TO Q3] 4. NA/Refused [SKIP TO Q3] Q2. What would your reasons be for voting "no" on the sales tax? (DO NOT -READ LIST; SELECT ALL THAT APPLY) • • 1. Cost to taxpayers /Taxes are too high akeady 2. Sales tax is regressive /Hits poorer families hardest 3. Don't believe the.. funds will be spent wisely 4. General uncertainty of the economy/recession 5. Other [SPECIFY]: Q3. Another proposal is for a land transfer tax, where sellers would pay four-tenths of 1 % on the price of real estate, at the time of sale. For instance, when selling a $200,000 home, the SELLER would pay a tax of $800 at the time of sale. It's estimated that this tax would raise $4 million in the first full year, and COULD keep property taxes below what they would be otherwise. If this were placed on the ballot, how would you vote on afour-tenths of 1% land transfer tax, paid by the seller? (PROMPT IF NEEDED:) Would you vote "yes" or "no"? 1. Yes [SKIP TO QS] 2. No [SKIP TO Q4] 3. DKlNot Sure [GO TO Q3A] 4. NA/Refused [SKIP TO QS] Q3A. Would you say you lean more toward voting "yes," or toward voting .."no," on the land transfer tax proposal, or are you really not sure? 1. Lean Yes [SKIP TO QS] 2. Lean No [GO TO Q4] 3. Really not sure [SKIP TO QS] 4. NA/Refused [SKIP TO QS] Drafted by Hertzog Research, LLC - 4 - Orange County Sales Tax Survey, 2008 • Final Questionnaire 30 January 2008 Q4. What.would your reasons be for voting "no" on the land transfer tax? (DO NOT READ LIST; SELECT ALL THAT APPLY) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Cost to taxpayers /Taxes are too high akeady Housing prices are already too high Housing market is bad Don't want to pay that much when I sell a home Don't believe the funds will be spent wisely General uncertainty of the economy/recession Other [SPECIFY]: Q5. Under North Carolina law, even if the voters pass both of these tax proposals, the County could levy only one: EITHER the sales tax increase, OR the land transfer tax, BUT NOT BOTH. Regardless of how you would vote on these proposals, if you HAD to choose between them, which one would you rather see enacted--the one-quarter of 1 % sales tax increase on non-food items, OR the four-tenths of 1 % land transfer tax paid by sellers of real estate? 1. Sales tax 2. Land transfer tax • 3. No real preference/DKlNot Sure 4. Refused to select either/NA Local Media Usage Q6. OTHER THAN talking with your friends and family, can you tell me any sources of LOCAL news and information you use REGULARLY? That includes newspapers, local TV or radio news, and web sites that cover local affairs. (RECORD VERBATIM. PROSE FOR ADDITIONAL SOURCES:) Anything else? Demographics Dl INTRO. Now I have a few final questions just for statistical purposes. Again, your answers will be kept strictly confidential D 1. First, do you own or rent your home? 1. Own 2. Rent 3. DK/NA/Refused • Drafted by Hertzog Research, LLC - 5 - Orange County Sales Tax Survey, 2008 Final Questionnaire 30 January 2008 D2. In what year were you born? [NA/REFUSED = 9999] D3. So that we can make sure all races are represented fairly in our interviews, would you describe yourself as...? (READ LIST; SELECT ONE) 1. White 2. Black or African-American 3. Hispanic or Latino 4. Asian or Pacific Islander 5. American Indian or Native American 6. Multiracial 7. Or some other. category? 8: [DO NOT READ] DK/NA/Refused • D4. Finally, do you live within the town limits of Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Hillsborough, or Mebane (PRONOUNCE "MEB-in"), or do you live outside the limits of any town? 1. Within a town's limits [GO TO D4A] 2. Outside any town's limits [SKIP TO DS] 3. DK/NA/Refused [SKIP TO DS] D4A. Which town is that: the Town of Chapel Hill, the Town of Carrboro, the Town of Hillsborough, or the Town of Mebane (PRONOUNCE "MEB-in")? 1. Town of Chapel Hill 2. Town of Carrboro 3. Town of Hillsborough 4. Town of Mebane 5. None /Outside any town's limits 6. DKJNA/Refused D5. GENDER (RECORD - DO NOT ASIA 1. Male 2. Female CLOSE: That's all of the questions I have. Thank you so much for your time! Have a great day/evening, ~a Drafted by Hertzog Research, LLC - 6 -