Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda - 09-22-2008 - 5Durham - Chapel Hill- Carrlboro Metropolitan Planning Organization Member Governments: Town of Carrboro Town of Chapel Hill County of Chatham City of Durham County of Durham Town of Hillsborough N.C. Department of Transportation County of Orange 2035 Long Range Transportation PrIa Report Alternatives August II Direct Questions and Comments to: Andy Henry City of Durham - Transportation Division 101 City Hall Plaza Durham, NC 27701 (919) 560 -4366 awn drew @durhamnc.gov [This page left blank intentionally] Table of Contents Section page 1. Introduction a. What is 2035 LRTP? 1-1 b. What is CTP? 1-1 c. What are Alternatives? 1-1 d. How can citizens Participate? 1-2 e. What is the Next Step in 2035 LRTP Process 1-3 f. Development of Alternatives? 1-3 g. Summary Description of Alternatives 1-3 2. Alternatives — Model Data a. Performance Measures i. Purpose of Performance Measures 2-1 !I. Performance Measures Tables 2-3 b. Evaluation Measures i. Purpose of Evaluation Measures 2-9 ii. Evaluation Measures Tables 2-10 c. Congestion Maps (V/C) L Use of Congestion Maps 2-23 ii. Congestion Maps of Alternatives 2-25 3. Financial Information a. Preliminary Costs and Revenues 3-1 b. Local Options Revenue Estimates 3-3 4. Alternatives — Detailed Description a. Purpose of Alternatives 4-1 b. Development of Alternatives 4-1 c. Description of Alternatives 4-2 d. Summary Charts of Alternatives 4-3 e. Alternatives Maps 4-5 f. Alternative Project Tables 4-19 S. Land Use Scenarios a. Land Use Scenarios Proposed 5-1 b. Summary Chart of Land Use Scenarios 5-2 c. Scenario Review 5-3 d. Scenario Maps 5-7 e. Policy Directions for Land Use Scenarios 5-21 [This page left blank intentionally] 1 - introduction 2035 LRTP and CTP Alternatives — Introduction What is the 2035 LRTP? The 2035 Long -Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) is the guide for major transportation investments in the Durham - Chapel Hill- Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization (DCHC -MPO) area. The DCHC -MPO area covers the entire Durham County and the urbanized portions of Orange and Chatham Counties. The 2035 LRTP recommends major transportation projects, policies and strategies designed to maintain existing transportation systems and serve the region's future travel needs. The 2035 LRTP is also designed to support land use and air quality goals for the urban area, and must be prepared in accordance with Federal transportation and environmental requirements.. Projects must be in the 2035 LRTP in order to receive state and federal transportation funding through the North Carolina Transportation Improvement Program (TIP). What is the CTP? North Carolina General Statute 136 -66.2 requires each municipality or Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO), with the cooperation of the NCDOT, to develop a Comprehensive Transportation Plan (CTP) serving present and anticipated travel demand in and around the MPO. The CTP is a series of 5 sheets that include: Adoption Sheet, Highway Map, Public Transportation and Rail Map, Bicycle Map, and Pedestrian Map. These sheets show current and future transportation facilities. The principal differences between the -LRTP and CTP include: • LRTP lists only proposed highway improvements and transit services, whereas the CTP maps out both the current and proposed projects; • LRTP must be fiscally- constrained, i.e., the anticipated revenues must cover the anticipated costs, but the CTP has no fiscal element. The development process for these two documents, which includes the use of a travel demand model and extensive public involvement, are very similar. As a result, the DCHC MPO will complete the development process for both documents at the same time. What are Alternatives? The DCHC MPO plans to develop and evaluate several Alternatives in the process to create the 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan. Each Alternative will be a combination of a Transportation System, which includes a set of highway, transit and other transportation improvements, and a Land Use Scenario that distributes the forecasted 1 -1 1- Introduction population and employment for the year 2035. These Alternatives will be run in the Triangle Regional Model (TRM) to produce a set of transportation performance measures that describe how the transportation system will handle the travel demand generated by a particular population and employment distribution in the year 2035. These performance measures, such as the level of roadway congestion, average travel time, and transit ridership, will be used to evaluate and compare the various Alves. It should be noted that it is very unlikely that one of the Alternatives in its entirety would be advanced as the Preferred Option. These Alternatives have been designed to ' emphasize a particular mode in meeting the future travel demands so that the public and technical staff can understand how well the designated mode works. How can Citizens Participate? There are many opportunities for citizens to review and comment on the Alternatives and Preferred Option at a series of public workshops and public hearings that will take place from August through December 2009. The public involvement calendar for the Alternatives is displayed below. The DCHC MVO Website will continue to post a detailed list of these public involvement opportunities in the 2035 LRTP section of the Website - www.dchcmpo.ora. For more information, citizens can also contact Andy Henry, (919) 560 -4366, andrew henryna durhamncAov. AU- d.vw»t U9xC AnAVAS - Public Involvement Calendar *One workshop will be rocusea iar Guvuviuuv1uw =rte - =w -b -- - -- 1 -2 1- introduction Note: Check DCHC WO Web site for any meeting date and time updates — www dchcmno.or:s What is the Next Step in the 2035 LRTP Process? In the next major step in the 2035 LRTP development process, the public, elected officials and technical staff will use the evaluation and comparison of the Alternatives to create a single Alternative that best meets the NIPO's Goals and Objectives and the fiscal constraint requirements. These requirements demand that the project costs do not exceed the expected funding revenues. This final Alternative is called the Preferred Option, and it will also go through an extensive public review process similar to that of the Alternatives. Development of Alternatives The table on page 4 shows the combinations of Transportation Systems and Land Use Scenarios that will be modeled for the 2035 LRTP development process. Each of these Transportation Systems will be combined with one, or more, Land Use Scenarios to create an Alternative. • The first two Transportation Systems ( #1 and #2), the 2030 LRTP and Comprehensive Transportation Plan, will be used as benchmarks to compare with the 2035 LRTP Alternatives, and therefore will not form Alternatives. • The next five Transportation Systems ( #3 through #7), are Alternatives for the 2035 LRTP. There is a unique set of Socioeconomic Data (SE Data) for each Land Use Scenario. The Baseline Land Use Scenario, for example, is the SE Data approved by the Transportation Advisory Committee (TAC) for use in developing the 2035 LRTP and is based on the current land use plans and policies of the local jurisdictions in the DCHC WO's planning area. The other Land Use Scenarios assume certain changes to current land use policies. Summary Description of Transportation Systems Each Transportation System is composed of many highway, transit and other transportation projects. A review of the long list of projects is a difficult task. The table on page 5 provides a summary of the major projects in each of the Transportation Systems to - highlight the level and type of investment in the three major modes — highway, bus transit and fixed- guideway. Section 4 of this report, called Alternatives — Detailed Description, presents maps and project tables for each of the transportation systems used in the Alternatives. 1 -3 0 ai •o �a0i o Z ci kn e �a., 2°� o rA 1 H o LA 0 b y in e r--. ® rA b N 'b Piz p. y a 0� as as M ti cl +�+ Q bA O O V � O eC .� r i tn a S ® ..,, v...t 0 all any A V1 � xn iol 0 O A 5 ;� vi m~ "'O 0 16. o o LLi��,i^ 0 la C > .... v. w w .. __ �� �. �.: �i_.�. e0 a �� s .O y i �• A y a0i 00 wl 7� zl to •�i ca {�. o °' .Q y o M bD a p ® �: ob E-4 ,y a°' r.O ry., o,w O O � aHWHaNW�UV�w ® Z cV N cr1 et v� tp n Y ca C,6 V .2 o 0 r. 0 0J., 4- b 0 UK 0 0 0 4 cd 96 16 t4 - -------------- --------------- --------------- ------------------ ----------------- --------------- - > ta .0 ' Cn V, 2 m C3 A q 0 1 -n I W2 tin 0 rn 1 PEW =fir vii $In C4 03 (4 V1 tn >p I "I t4 cd: & w -us >p 00. EA U ID Ei 0 u A N 41 :03 0 -n 0 'n 00 0 24-4 PL P-4 J14 .0 0 ------------- - o a ---------- -- ------ ---- ------------ ------------------------------------- -- 4-4 0 Nftwo 0 .l ono 0 CO >e s: - 31 1. 0. 0 0-1 in a 0 A z V. I 0 F- 'o S E, P4 0 0,- o aai 0 . 0 > 7a 0, Cc' > 0 tw -A o .2 In 0 0 > 9.2 9 -� - .9.. zo > 0 Al W po M 40 cd C, ca rn M.0 Fa I? 1- Inirodudion [This page left blank intentionally] 1-6 Sedion 2 - AftemaWes - Model Data - Performance Measures 2035 LRTP and CTP Alternatives — Performance Measures Purpose of Performance Measures performance Measures provide a general indicator of the a transportation system from a variety of perspectives such as mobility, travel time, congestion, mode choice, air quality, financial, and environmental justice (i.e., perspective of minority and low- income populations). The measures are not specific to a particular travel corridor but instead cover the entire transportation system, and therefore are useful for comparing the efficiency and effectiveness of the different transportation Alternatives. Most of the data used for calculating the Performance Measures comes from the Triangle Regional Model, which is a travel demand model that forecasts future travel statistics based on a set of assumptions concerning the highway network, transit service and other transportation facilities. The tables in this section provide the Performance Measures for the fifteen different transportation Alternatives that are being analyzed. Each Alternative is a combination of one of the five transnorta on systems, including: • Comprehensive Transportation Plan; • Intensive Highway; • Intensive Fixed Guideway; • Intensive Bus Transit; and, • Moderate Multimodal, And, one of the five Land Use Scenarios, including: • Baseline; . • Constrained; • Buildout; • Travel Corridors; and, • Transit Node. (Note: For additional information on the development of the Alternatives, see Section 4, "Alternatives — Detailed Description" in this report.) Performance Measures Tables For comparison purposes, the Performance Measure tables are organized by transportation system type, plus the first table compares all the Alternatives that use the Baseline Land Use Scenario. The order of the tables on the following pages is: 2 -1 Section 2 - Aitematives - Mode! Data - Pertormance Measures 1. Alternatives using Baseline SE Data 2. Comprehensive Transportation Plan (CTP) Alternatives 3. Intensive Highway Alternatives 4. Intensive Fixed Guideway Alternatives 5. Intensive Bus Transit 6. Moderate Multimodal Alternatives Use of E+C The column in the table designated as E+C indicates Existing plus Committed. The E+C is composed of a transportation network of the existing and committed highway and transit facilities, and the 2035 socioeconomic data (i.e., population and employment in the year 2035). Thus, the E+C serves as a benchmark for comparing how much the performance measures improve with the transportation investments in the different Alternatives. Targets The ets WO set Targets — Good, Better and Best — for each Performance Measure. The Target values are shown in the right. side columns and serve as another benchmark for comparing the different Alternatives. 2 -2 m ID m m m m 0 c W `ot m a m 0 m v 0 m m E m ZE N coO V m Y N m p O ° \ t" O O a m et m N O N N O\ d' N o d' N O OD C •� PV � O -e 'Q' � �p "'� oO .0 ODD N L �i o \° o \� o ° o o\ \ o p bmD o � N M o o p p \ � � C 1n O� o O C o O N � N �' � O � p � C � O N N C7 CA �Ae��+�Nr"~ t7a�'� Y N m m w m m m v C m m a m 0 m �o 0 m E m a N O V m V1 O N D N o O G t' N p O n N et N 00 �! � O N N CP w N NI�I�I�I�N"rlr4 0010 hI ~INI� ODIC �IinIhI�IM S. G ypmp o p •�+ � o o a N u m ate+ N PC 1 m �' n �7 O 4•� y p C 00 V7 [� O 00 C O nl w �• � an o Q p N O V7 to O O P+ n. � o w V o o i in w N ate+ N 1 m �' n �7 O 4•� G y 'o O w �• � an o JO`° 0o U m U a o� P+ n. � o w V o o i w N ct3 ra 'S r 'Jn X 0 J Lf)` 0 N. m m cn m a3 m m v c mi 'C m Q m O 0 m E m N O V m n N m Ifs o h o O '0'- _ PC N O N N O N a � �Oj OO l." O p � � •p C N O v'' 4 1/) \ N h Ofl rl C ) V1 \\ p 0 pt N \ o tf) O\ It e e \ 0 b m\ y� p "C! o O O � O N p O M 0 \ o M \ 0 N O N O� M o O yg ",j Zp h 1/1 n N m m m m m v c 'C ro m ID 'a 0 m E R N 0 V m oo N tf) \\ o 1A e 0 c N o g o o NO, ' !t O N O O l7 p p 0 t H O V1 O N p "C3 O 'A h p 0 O CA O N L M P O \ CT O O \ o O N !! t O \ O O O \ to O O \ o O \ o O \ O \ "Ci d q "C7 O O M as � OD C� O \ � O \ O� N� t CA N H N O N e N O Cf? t 00 O O N CT L C N M o o p N iA Nv4 N V..4 .-q O p O C eV OC tOrf O CO O C^ us ~ t- ^i M T.1 �/i N t o \ .O N oo N Section 2 - Alternatives - Model Data - Evaluation Measures 2035 LRTP and CTP Alternatives — Evaluation Measures Purpose of Evaluation Measures Evaluation Measures are very similar to Performance Measures. Evaluation Measures indicate the general performance of a transportation system and therefore are useful for comparing the efficiency and effectiveness of the different transportation Alternatives. All of the data used for calculating the Evaluation Measures comes from the Triangle Regional Model. The Evaluation Measures provides a more detailed set of statistics than the Performance Measures. The tables in this section are presented in the same order as the Performance Measures in the preceding pages. The only significant difference in the format will be: The Performance Measures compares the Alternatives' values to a set of Targets, while the Evaluation Measures compares the Alternatives' values to the E+C values. The E+C is composed of a transportation network of the existing and committed highway and transit facilities, and the 2035 socioeconomic data (i.e., population and employment in the year 2035). Thus, the E+C serves as a benchmark for comparing how much the evaluation measures improve with the transportation investments in the different Alternatives. The Evaluation Measures table has columns are in the right -hand side that calculate the difference between the E+C and Alternatives values. Please note that there are two pages for each Evaluation Measure table. 2 -s 0 w N , >m am C N Q N OR CL w �m 0 o �a W Q w N� � m R m C N v .4+ m Q i N Om CL �m V o ctl m w + UJ Ui > > CL SO LU > E av OC Lb lop_ ve lop_ ZR * ale M Moe M CD *op- CD w to C4 It ON C� Cl M V) CD to C14 to MM C-A co co — — — — — -,o ve -oe — — — pp ve - - - -. - Ile - - -op_ - Cl .97 9 P. P. Wg M co coloco MMOWONMCD P- IR 0 A r- cm w r.. CO rz to co w Ct Vi —00 — — — — — — — — co 0; 'i 4, 11-0 co w r, co —OM OMWOMMWW WMV—N—W" CD 0-* to 0-0 loe co co M w CD co ,It co co-q-t q C'! C4 mm"N" q cq CR r- M C� ci to CD Cl w r- I-- to co to -T CD w w WNV Z9 4z CD "It 't co vo --t w M f.- Co Cp co to ui 6 6 O . M O M W rt OMM Of cq Iq co M Ull rrr www w Co Cl M co F' iri E! to 0 C? 0 0 cr, -as w to w I C D 0 .2 E 0 IM cz C r_ CD w M C 0 C 0 0 0 0 CL F- < = E I-- -K- 0 ; tM C tM .5 0 A A 0 CL V a LL E s r_ w J2 w CD = c a ID o-0 U. U. (D 0 E (D E —S 9 S CD L :3.2 0 IM M 0 EL 0) U M tv A *0 'o ra 23: w tM 7j-6 1 1 r: w 83 0 0 0 0 0 > > w C2 (D cm 0 0 a CD e (D e w A > E-L a rj e U. < E 0 0 0 U; I � 0) w W 08 CD w DOMz m°° IL 3: IL N M rc) C� Cp CD 0 . N -: . M . . 414 cq r q r cq r Co r r r r r r r r r r r r r r C4 cm r " r r4 r N -ZI-Z U + U) W °> > AW d w C V o� N �O m� m EV O ¢v Nu' _ c tC � W m N Om IL O LU O e, e. Ne CO CM — CD to rr C, C-A CD C* C, CM CR) r- CIP r- M w NX CD NX cr) VC r.. C=1 C4. T IT IT 7 - t R 6 Z zr X 6N< II CD CD o 'T a? w 'T 0q C4 o 'T m "T U, _ C CM r- 0) CD C, cp V 0) w CD M'T co R Ics! C4 cc co o-* 1.1Z CR CR '.e It Z C! to C) Ct c, V- C� co ID co rIt CYO C-4 Vt CM CM 0 M V) C4 CIJ M to a w go C* 0) r- = co C%I Ir IR 0) Ct co a cm G'.2,,�g'' ,_ V�kc� n r r fn CD CD u): I= Q co r% "t 01 CI co co Lo Ci U7 Ci m N 0, - N CZ 4ir ": cm Ci v to co to in 4= CD co I": CD V) O V co 0) U) w Cq co IT C4 CD CR IR " co w co co CD W q cn ca .4t CO r w t- (D 00 to — co CD C4 cq Iq rC4r cm Cq Iri 01i o) C,4 ; C3, �-1 — ,6 (M C6 OD co N - LO W V) in IT IT in IT M v C4 r, Cq Lq 90 M D o o Nt IR R "t 'Yh Q (a o W .0 co ui 0) C6 CD C6 C3 co 0 oc :3 0 E La iE OL w r cc tm C co A A CL C3 C7 C .Z- In w CD CL CD CL 0 0 tm .0 CL ca E E > 0 tm a 0 towo 0 CD M r_ C w 0 c S 12 w - 00 — cL' t6 ■ 3: w 5 LOL 0 0) - 10 WN WO !S 3: r- is E -� W o m it 0 U. cc 140 U; ID W > U; 0 U. CD w 5 A_ to- to- CL 0. 3: U 0- a. a 13 I 'I c; ciC;Icicic; '.7 C4 -I "t q: — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — rrr U W Ri C L Q m IL 2w m C W 0 0 e�Lo 0 0 o 0 000000 O O 0 opON� 0 0 0 O Z N (C1 40 0 r r 10 e!�- N m m N 3 'ate: 0 0 0 o Q 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 co o co 0 0 n' 0 c o W C? C? C? CP hxli. W In OZ O�NOrr in �N m V M M z tp � 0 m 0 1- 0 0 O 0 0 O �� 0 r 0 N o r N O Z 4 N 0 0 for Nm N ee Q W -W OOM r4 N mm W M M W V'mm 1[�Ot�(DO N 'O: W O MOSt M V: m O? In 0m OOMON. N N mam I() tD W ;M':•i .:?A .y.rap st r ti r.: m m�L9 W NlOrto OmQi co C) m V'�(f M M v mNr m rm N N N t o C 7 N r m r 4"/ In m M N W m M �• :. m� t' f C W N rmr co z z M r W O GON r m MM M(:O v v m In Ci to I= RR O OO 07 CUR to r Nr N N MNm V`(OP N 41 r�" VW'OOD' W W, 4:13 �C~'')`tOq NmCi N•t co NIn CO Nr (o 43;C6 43; C6 ti Op V' W 00 W W � �" �'Ml�mr N N p� sr r t`�' • ¢ Z v Cj vm W wC3,U) m w0Wmr 0 to MVm C'7 V: (`, NWto0to mvv_mm O m Mi['f M r �e�-m M Cl 00 01 nN to C V)NMrm U7 M W co M cl W m 1� ik co W 2 O N N M N `55 - ' W ON erNN Z V'Nm n ( l 9 N V CD Lo Ill C, Oh W m In W W rCO (7O NAmO .4t m U) L1(? to N CO l7N rWNNO W V'at hMM W W M O m 41 M 0606cco WC N y'N�C6 N V'NNr clv N M r to to M C.) O co m W) M m to O co M N Eli s.. �t. F 4a"'i'lvi� Q (fO� _j m � it IMP m m rt3" c jE m yf m I U m V m C 7 I_ s, m 0 m m m t cx F p wU m ao �=mro m U m oo�m m G Y C V mY 0 r 0 m m m� �v m 7 °o m t c $ c� o m o _ O �o o_ o o o • ?m o c ° c m E ao a m o m m c H` c�c)ozoU o E o La Ept�mmz EoummzQ1= QF�- a mDUJI12 a m o E o 0 0 - . - 'I MMC+�C�, �; rra=r rN (7r�o rrrrN t0NCO rN Cl it-4 - .A.y,.d K•tNNNNNNNNNNNNNMMMM('O NN NN NNMM M. MMMM V' �t L W m m > m � m ;p a) w v C9 `0 X Oi Rl m � � E _ m C O O U) W i�r •_ Ne O \ Z9 0 -0'e p o o e e t- O G_ 0 0 T [ir 0 tl� p\ CV I p\ �� 0 N .} s� CO CD 90 CO Imo/., er to NN t �C*t ,�, pY.�NM t o �°. �2 p a°. ve �p a op o p tl` o oe e� c+� p .p tl` 0 0 0 0 �NM 0 0�° e!'fD tD (O CO I'�Ci eN-�NN O�CY pYYM� µ. �.° 0 0 0 �°. 0 0 cT° 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o CV p tl P tl r- �e o o off` at, /DOt+q'Qi f; NCNN 10 �,Y 0q, q, C? I? •_- �'• Spa (4. O1A N r C Go tom N-CO OM O'd; ID r V;G C-) CAON N T p CO 0 co 00 00CDOfA CV t6 �`�°. CO O -per°. V' "p°.o trl 1, CO to CO 0 to to o NN Cl) Napo 17 V' C~N r co CD CD p 5 1 SIZES NM VN' �M COO CD Cl N 52 t• T CD C p0r 10M t, co tl�Nt-1%0 V' 1DMv 6N 0f+1`- N 0 0 0109 0 OO�NlO O�!'1-- 0 0 00 COT o r to CM C�DW VO• %: rN TOiC� (v iCi tnOtc) V T to T tD .�eirayx ^�}y CO r T co CO lvai CD O p N 1C! r o 0 0 0 0 0 0 CD co CO N co .i }.'s ±" ' COD CAT TO 01 co kaco t` tD CO CC) er ' tOMd•COMCIIN rNrCAm p r 147 OfN1D "wm O�YM whmOd• COM "It tW ci Oit')e tC>r =tD C N r 0 M m C p r N U � � r OO nOto N CD vi n, Lo O rNNaOtC') 0 Cl Co 0 'p`e CON U7CA0 . V; 00000 'R Oc+iOCDO tiMa' W m N iD �+ 0) to �T- mO N ?. Mme' rr co SO to EG 0 O pOp co " E a C m v :r ex•' 4 m C1 m m rp CD ca . C E CL o 0 0 u0,. 0 .0 9 to H `o cm 3 o n n CL — u. _ m E ¢.... — cm m ... ... U U a.�_o 00 .. Y w 3 p li �. o mmm CD E E W -:S i0 (D X C X C. oo�t m C ` m —� W a C ti m 'O 'O (6 CD m `�' O m m > > C) W O O L O O E » i W m C1 m u Q p 0 C O m O SD m ,a ` O > W mO = C O O mLLQQ wLL Q = I LQ LL � o EpUmWx O O Z i =i a �o Orz rNC''f TNC? C'r'i C')�7'C' V. tC')l'DraD tD r CA CA C7>Qlrrr 00N000 e -a-e� Nlql h �s rNMt!9 rN «» U W � tri w m m � a+ w C 0 c0 X v 0 IL m = � N Q C Q .r m y 3 TI U L° W 3 � G 111 L y v WC 1 m O m IL 4 � m v m v � o N ;y O 0 Q{ W W T W 3 m (� U) .F+ m Wr. L to O � � O m ? r � E V � a V o O m �{ W W N w to 0 .DEC W to m O .L m a m Q N O N cc .V o. W W [6 O N N O N t3 m c O W D ' o OR O� O� G O^ O'er e� Cis CT O� o O_ O� O" Cis o_ 0 0 0 z w,- O_ NO �1'toh O� Oe tOt�aO�'Ot. 1 �ON 1 eWtl+f eNt GGD�d!•IeAteN�fO Sur 0 o 0 0 o a` o o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o o a- o o\° Ile 0 0 CD •tO1+ to CDtdTr WI c�N ' TYv �• r D a.\ O O \ O \o oa. O \a•3•a•o 0 0 0 0 0 vP 0 �P 0 \` 0 _C 0 \ 0 0 ° 0\ o :G. -0 CDCDCO OO N QUeN!•0 1 r 0400)OtC7 U 1 ui CD LO N O t a� N �l' O t- co CD h tOCM t0 CO V'rNrrW tD Ch W O W \ ° o NNC-- \\ 0 0 `ems 0 to(-r.01r 0 �° 0 °�° o W CYROr1CD O [� 1 O O N h O N C';N O r�i' nN mC3,f tD r O N ;3.. �,♦ �_ N O 0 LO co CO pp IT tA CD co Cp Cp rN— CO O) V �tr*� 00) d; �l;h•000O0 N co o O mO co 1 0 v F tA0 N t'>etco Otiui d'd' Or O CO tt co co to to m Ch aD V' n to CO CO O- V'r Ch Nr - CO o OC71O 0 0 0 OInMOr 0 0 0 o OcoCm' O IO 1 C9 w co ' Nio N ci CD W (h (*i (•i t(i h ui7 (O CA ti CD N v mco OOCO r N i —: eF , N I•. tO (D co to v vITNNt7DY7N0 to M rf I; CC/ O to CO 00 Cp N 0 d' 0 to 0 aD 0 �t 0o d; t� t�(oet r W m N ' O h•• O O rNNt0 to itl co co O � O co O ci t6 C6 O 1O O ,�, r CODS O N qtr .+ xt, aT wE co ' O m r m y 0 m U V i ;rah 5 t O .r E to H m 0 mO 0 c 0 w c o m> m � m m U U c E m c�Q F- c AA X16 - a >>O E U U C�i C� � Q 1 Cc, 0 .m m 0 . m 'O '- -e ' Cp 'O m to m_ m m 0 0 O m s _: v `U"a -_ 0 m m m w E ID o E> m H m m m p !- F- c c a m c` m a N CL tnO�pUm ��nF- i-m0�c oma00m�oof� -..w. �o c 0 � ,_.. 1 v! �7 �K i >> 3: a) (fl o >3 m m omm i�. >00..�m OVR c m � 3cW (fl V. (fl m20OQv000cO (�i U) 'm m _ 1 -f O mC - Y ¢¢¢n°'. Q-M¢ -.VLL+ tm xrm o o >�; >r 4`tau- =�a1LQ¢a1LQ¢ m m 1 1 1 1 1 T n T. 92 cio�z Sw ��'@7M rNt*> rNCO r' CA CA rNMvU, 6161 hl ld� vi CY t'Y"It �1 CO I�000001 N N tV N U W 0 m v m O o y } C m G1 t6 O � � v Q O CL m � N a m m v o = N N C C O Q N W Section 2 - Alternatives - Model Data - Evaluation Measures [This page left blank intentionally] 2-22 2 -23 Section 2 - Alternatives - Model Data - Congestion Maps 2035 LRTP and CTP Alternatives — Congestion Maps (V /C maps) Use of Congestion Maps The performance Measures provide a meral indicator of the overall transportation system. On the other hand, the Congestion Maps show the forecasted level of service on s§g cific road segments and corridors based on the afternoon peak hour. These maps are sometimes called "V /C" maps (V over C maps) because the level of service, or existence of congestion, is derived by dividing the traffic volume by the traffic capacity of the road segment. For example, a volume of 9,000 vehicles on a road that is capable of carrying 10,000 vehicles will produce a V/C of 0.9. A V/C of 1.0 is equal to a Level of Service (LOS) of "E ", which can be described as: Limit of acceptable delay, unstable flow, poor signal progression, traffic near roadway capacity, frequent cycle failures. Although the term traffic congestion is subjective in that it means different levels of delay to different people, it can be said that any road segment approaching a V/C of 1.0, which is indicated on the maps with a yellow color, experiences some delays. A V/C greater than 1.0, which is indicated on the maps by the purple color, means frequent delays for the motorist, and a V/C greater than 1. 1, which is indicated by the red color on the maps, translates into unacceptable travel delays. The Triangle Regional Model (the travel demand model for the Triangle Region) uses travel behavior data for the Triangle Region, future transportation system networks, and future population and employment data, to forecast the volume and capacity values needed to produce these maps. The forecasts are for the year 2035. Each Congestion Map represents one of the Alternatives, which are comprised of a specific transportation system (Intensive Highway, Fixed Guideway, etc.) and Socioeconomic Data (Baseline, Buildout, etc.). Review and comparison of the Congestion Maps for the various Alternatives will show how well a particular Alternative addresses travel demand on the key roadway segments and corridors in the WO planning area. Of particular importance is the comparison ns any � a benchmark. The E+C map uses a (Existing plus Committed), which can be transportation network with the current roadways and transit services plus any others that have been committed to being implemented, and the Socioeconomic Data (i.e., population and employment) for the year 2035. This map shows the level of service to be experienced if no additional roadways improvements or transit services are implemented, and thus helps to answer the question, "When we make our next transportation investment decision, where do we need to focus our investment ?" Furthermore, by Section 2 - Attematives - Model Data - Congestion Maps comparing the E+C Congestion Map with the other Alternatives, you can see how well the transportation investments in that Alternative address the congestion in the E+C. Congestion Maps for Alternatives On the following pages, the Congestion Maps are presented in the order shown on the table below. 2 -24 Alternative: ID : IEM22rtation Sy stem : Land Use Scenario N/A Existin Plus Committed ; Baseline 2–A ; Com rehensive Transportation Plan: Baseline 2-B ; Comprehensive Transportwon Plan ; Buildout 3–A ; Intensive High wa : Baseline 3- ; Intensive ITighwa :Constrained 3-C Intensive ffighway Travel Corridor 4A Intensive Fixed Guideway Baseline 4B Intensive Fixed Guideway Travel Corridor 4-C ; Intensive Fixed Guideway ;Transit Node 5 -A ; Intensive Bus Transit ; Baseline 5 -B ; Intensive Bus Transit : Travel Corridor 5-C ; Intensive Bus Transit : Transit Node 6-A ; Moderate Multimodal : Baseline 6-B Moderate Multimodal : Travel Corridor 6-C Moderate Multimodal Transit Node 2 -24 M 2035 Afternoon Peak Hour Volume over Capacity Ratio (VoC) Alternative 2a Thic map upnseum the ratio bamem cnmpnchmsive tnnapomlim plaa rot the baserne land use $=-&. .Ug at 2M VA Comprehensive Transportation Plan Baseline Land Use Scenario DCHC MPO Area 2-ai 2035 Afternoon Peak Hour Volume over Capacity Ratio (VoC) Alternative 2b I'm. anp mpw== the ratio bdt Pr6im�a,wdmafvoh mwdopxft7. usnmmy anpleaxantioa ofdm compabmniae mnspomtion pha foc dm buU= Lad vx ccrntrio. Ed Comprehensive Transportation Plan Buildout Land Use Scenario DCHC MPO Area ® DMC WO so� M-& ilnl B —A2d -' O Cmfy so,mdu es Rm&my Voles Ov= Cq='ey R-o (vbQ O.W <= VoC < 0.80 ®0.80 <= VoC <1.00 1.00 <= VoC <1.10 1.10 — VoC A Peak Hour Volume 10000 5000 2500 1� 0 15 3 45 Miles Seef m 2- arema®ves- Wde! Dam- Conoesfmt NhV5 2-25 6? tM14,. ��. A� � � a,� c.�y. :`1i 4. 'r+' � ��� .yV�.� a r Z�"r {� � 4 " v . �+^ �' ` "�•. ,eT �r ,:�KH h >• ,iY4al 3� �# 51 }� � . i� e�i��.. Ftt�.' iJC'f+riia'", i r. c I�1 n• t� 7n § O'gANG Q;p'IFIAM DMC MPO Botmdacy ON Mtttridpal Boundaries 7035 Afternoon Peak Hour Hyd -bgi -I Bo ndaries Hi hwa Intensive o County Burn sties Volume over Capacity Ratio (VoG) y Roadway votttme Dots Capacity Ratio (VoC) Cop ® 0.00 <c VoC < 0.80 Alternative 3a ® 0.80 <_ voC < 1.00 Baseline Land Use Scenario 1.00 <= VoC < 1.10 1.10 <= voc Afternoon Peak Hoar Vohtme twr 1Lis map septesmts the ratio between ,..W— P�madma<y= and °P'°q, DCHC MPO Area r� N nsmmingahowlymteasive 10000 5000 7500 •ra imspo- 6— s) msaCot the btseyme 0 1.5 3 4.5 laod trse amo io. U% =2006 Miles HEJ 2-30 2-31 2035 Afternoon Peak Hour Volume over Capacity Ratio (VOC) Alternative 4a M,js map wp�ts the atio baween ptnj,=d ..Iwq —Iwm and api6q, auwmaga Cued gukL -q uU SrAC tmspoaatiou q. fm the buaw land use urn Augurt 2003 Fixed Guideway Tall STAC Baseline Land Use Scenario ® DMC MPO B-un&q MbicipgBoun&fm County Bounbties Rm&M Vohme a— C-Va* Ratio (VOQ 0.00 <= voc <0.80 oso <= VoC < LOD MW LOD <= VOC < 1.10 1.10 <= voc Afu=Doa Peak HourVobww IOODD 5000 2500 0 1.5 3 4.5 Milrs r,mqlm 2. Almmtivrs- model Orbs- Comestion YaPS 2-32 ;'lat3u ;y, 4 i� -U: 4' l N i ,04y.� FS O tr `Fl Xa � ']3'"1 L Wit 'k -`5 Bqz f9+ } % f i rs rlk•„^i' ie % ,.x�;r k " (p�." �'+'L'1 ! ct aT� 5 �I � A� C�t � �� . 1'�•'��,"'rr. - - ... ttv/ ikkii' 1 °`ic��u`' 1 fir, n tYc, a3": 3• yyam�;; 44' a> ry r 1 ��M1P slw "�yn': m � �% •i�Pf Y Vin,.. ORAN (�iA'rl�M t �i ly"• ® DCEIC MPO Botmdny Muvicipamuwoaries 2035 Afternoon Peak Hour Hyd -bgi d Botmdaties Volume over Ca p acity Ratio (VoC) Fixed Guideway Tall STAC t= -m Roadway vo hue octx Capacity Ratio Nq 0.00 <= voc < 0.80 Alternative 4b ® 0.80 <= voc < 1.00 Corridor Land Use Scenario ME Loo <= voc < 1.10 1.10 <= voc Afurnoou Pnk Hmm volume r I MV MP the ndn>>e:� e �nl m =d�Yy. DCHC MPO Area nj msuming•famdgaidemgtaBSrAC 10000 5000 2500 • • tnaspomtion sp i= fnt the maid= 0 L5 3 45 hmd use acenado. An=2008 Mks 2-n 2-34 "S z-W z-V j i R 0 J J �' —"5,a I � �t'e ¢Y sski �"i .ID• e r s ac e1^ . �" � ��' c �r�� '• • � • Viz' , Nii�`' a'aai� ytx14;r`�1 w OR �f s P �c �,�T 2035 Afternoon Peak Hour Volume over Capacity Ratio (VOC) Alternative 6b m,js cup p=�=d, md. exs>em fac ehe rnmdoc I=d nse s<ma� Ang=2M Moderate Multimodal Corridor Land Use Scenario DCHC MPO Area 2-36 r39 2-40 Section 2 - Altemalives - Model Data - Congestion Maps [This page left blank intentionally] Section 3 - Financial Plan 2035 LRTP and CTP Alternatives — Financial Information Preliminary Costs and Revenues The 2035 LRTP must be fiscally- constrained- This requirements means that the cost of the various highway, transit and other transportation facilities must be covered by the reasonably- expected state, federal, local and private transportation revenues. The . Alternatives presented at this stage of the 2035 LRTP development process do not have to be fiscally- constrained because these are draft proposals that are used to analyze the performance of the various transportation facility types. Nonetheless, knowing the costs and revenues related to an Alternative will help inform us to where that particular Alternative stands in relation to being fiscally- constrained. Therefore, preliminary costs and revenue estimates have been developed. It must be stressed that these figures are preliminary, and therefore could change significantly as.the project details of the Preferred Option (i.e., final Alternative) are decided. Certainty in cost and revenue estimates for Alternatives is difficult because so many project details are unknown. For example, moving the implementation year of several fixed -route transit services, say five years, can change the system life cost by millions of dollars. Therefore, the costs and revenue presented at this point are to be used to get an idea of an order of magnitude presented for each Alternative.- The table on the next page presents the total costs and revenues for each Alternative, including a breakdown by highway and transit facilities, and shows the difference between the total cost and revenue. Local Options Revenue Estimates There are several options for raising revenue on a local basis, e.g., by county, that could be targeted to finance transportation projects. The tables on pages 3 and 4 present the estimated annual and 25 -year total revenues for each option. The 25 -year total assumes that the option would be implemented in the year 2011, and therefore produces 25 years of revenue from 2011 through 2035 (horizon year for the 2035 LRTP). These figures are illustrative and not intended to be final estimates for use in the 2035 LRTP. One of more of these options could be selected for further refinement and inclusion in the 2035 LRTP. It is important to note that many of these revenue options would require enabling legislation from the North Carolina General Assembly, and those in which enabling legislation exists, i.e., Sales and Use Tax., and Real Estate Transfer Tax, require a local referendum for approval. Page 5 shows the 25 -year totals for the local options in a chart format. 3-1 Section 3 - Financial Pion 3-2 Section 3 - Financial Plan Local Options Revenue Estimates Transportation and Infrastructure (values in $millions) (Sonrw Regional Transportation Alliance; apdxted January 10, 20081 It is important to note that many of these revenue options would require enabling legislation from the North Carolina General Assembly, and those in which nabling legislation exists, i.e., Sales and Use Tax, and Real Estate Transfer Tax, require referendum for approval. The RTA (Regional Transportation Alliance) is composed of businesses and chambers of commerce that promote solutions to transportation issues in the Triangle Region. The RTA compiles the data for these revenue estimates. ➢ Sales and Use Tax* 11.9 / al '/4% sales tax ** '/ :% -sales s_ ales tax 10/. sales tax Durham: $9.3 m $185 m $53 m $37.0 m $10.5 m Orange: $2.6 m $1 1 m $2 1 m $4.2 m Chatham: . $130 m $25.9 m $51.7 m Revenue per year. $325.0 in $6475 to $1,2925 in Revenue over 25 years: . (2011 through 2035) * The statewide Sales and Use Tax rate is currently 4.25 %, with the addition of the local rate of 2.5 %, there is an overall 6.75% Sales and Use Tax for Durham, Wake and Orange Counties. ** In 2007, the State Legislature authorized an additional Article 39 (point -of- sale - based) local option sales and use tax of '/4/o. ➢ Motor Fuels Tax 11.9 / al 1 / $142 m Durham: $12 m $5.9 m $3.1 m $7.4 m Orange: $0.6 m 0 4 m $2 n m $4.8 m Chatham: Revenue per year. $2.2 m $11.0 m $275 m $26.4 m $660.0 m Revenue over 25 years: $55.0 m ➢ Vehicle Registration Fee* (additional) $20 Durham: $3.8 m Orange: $2.0 in Chatham: 1.3 m Revenue per year. $7.1 m Revenue over 25 years: $177.5 m The current cost of vehicle registration renewal is $20 plus a $5 Triangle Transit Authority tax. Refer to GS 160A -613, 623 -624. 3-3 ➢ Rental Car Tag* 3 County: Revenue over 25 years: Section 3 - Financial Plan odditional) 5% (additional) 10% $8.7 in $175 m $2175 m $4375 in * Revenue for future Triangle Transit fixed - guideway project(a) are based on a 5% car rental tax levied. ➢ Real Estate Property Tag Durham: Orange: Revenue per year. Revenue over 25 years: > Real Estate Transfer Tax Durham: Orange: Revenue per year: Revenue over 25 years: $OA5 / $100 (0.05 %) $010 / $100 (0.1 %) $8.7 in $173 m $55m $10.9m $14.2 m $28.2 m $355 m $705 in $0.20 / $100 (0.2 0/,,)* $0.40 / $100 (0.4 0/o) ** $5.1 in $10.2 in $20m $4.1m $7.1 m $143 m $1775 in $3575 m * The State of North Carolina currently levies a 0.2% tax on any real estate transfer. ** In 2007, the State Lekislature authorized an additional 0.4% local option real estate transfer tax. ➢ Vehicle Property Tax $0.05 / $100 (.05 %) A-10 / $100 (0.1 0%) Durham: $0.8 m $1.7 in Orange: $0.4 m $0.9 m .Revenue per year. $1.2 in $2.6 in Revenue over 25 years: $30 m $65 in * PersonalNehicle property tax must be congruent with Real (Estate) property tax rates per Art. 5 of the NC Constitution 9 Income Tax 0.10% 0.25% 0.50% Durham: $3.6 in $7.4 in $14.8 in Orange: $2.6 in .$5-.2 in $10:4 m Revenue per year. $6.2 in $12.6 m $25.2 m Revenue over 25 years: $155 m $315 m $630 m 3-4 a IL U; Cl) c 0 U) 16 (D le C2 IV ul m LU CL of w w /PIP %% 0 C2 0 0 0 M 0 en 0 0 r, W Ln m co CD sjLwajL SZ jaAo anUBAaH Section 3 - Financial Plan [This page left blank intentionally] 3-6 Section 4 - Altematives - Detaned Description 2035 LRTP and CTP Alternatives — Detailed Description Purpose of Alternatives The DCHC WO plans to develop and evaluate several Alternatives in the process to create the 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan. Each Alternative will be a combination of a Transportation System, which includes a set of highway, transit and other transportation improvements, and a Land Use Scenario that distributes the forecasted population and employment for the year 2035. These Alternatives will be run in the Triangle Regional Model (TRM) to produce a set of transportation performance measures that describe how the transportation system will handle the travel demand generated by a particular population and employment distribution in the year 2035. These performance measures, such as the level of roadway congestion, average travel time, and transit ridership, will be used to evaluate and compare the various Alternatives. In the next major step in the 2035 LRTP development process, the public, elected officials and technical staff will use this evaluation and comparison information to create a single Alternative that best meets the MPO's Goals and Objectives and the fiscal constrain requirement that demands that the project costs do not exceed the expected funding revenues. This final Alternative is called the Preferred Option, and it will also go through an extensive public review process similar to that of the Alternatives. It should be noted that it is very unlikely that one of the Alternatives in its entirety would be advanced as the Preferred Option. These Alternatives have been designed to emphasize a particular mode in meeting the future travel demands so that the public and technical staff can understand how well the designated mode works. For example, the Intensive Highway Alternative has a high level of High- Occupancy Vehicle/Toll (HOV/HOT), road widenings and new roads, a relatively low level of bus transit and no fixed- guideway (e.g., light rail) to meet the future demands. The Alternative is helpful in understanding the effect of increased roadway capacity on specific corridor congestion, travel time, mode share and other performance measures. This knowledge will be used to develop the Preferred option, which is likely to have a lower level of roadway expansion than the Intensive Highway Alternative and a more balanced modal approach. Development of Alternatives The table on the page 3 shows the combinations of Transportation Systems and Land Use Scenarios that will be modeled for the 2035 LRTP development process. Each of these Transportation Systems will be combined with one, or more, Land Use Scenarios to create an Alternative. 4-1 Sec Oon 4 - AttemaUves - DetaOed Description • The first two Transportation Systems ( #1 and #2), the 2030 LRTP and Comprehensive Transportation Plan, will be used to compare with the 2035 LRTP Alternatives, and therefore will not form Alternatives. • The next five Transportation Systems ( #3 through #'n, are Alternatives for the 2035 LRTP. There is a unique set of Socioeconomic Data (SE Data) for each Land Use Scenario. The Baseline Land Use Scenario, for example, is the SE Data approved by the Transportation Advisory Committee (TAC) for use in developing the 2035 LRTP and is based on the current land use plans and policies of the local jurisdictions in the DCHC MPO's planning area. The other Land Use Scenarios assume certain changes to current land use policies. The Transportation System and Land Use Scenarios have only been combined into logical matches. For example, the Intensive Highway Transportation System assumes many highway improvements, relatively few transit improvements and no fixed - guideway service. Thus, this System was not matched with the Transit Node Land Use Scenario, which is designed to support fixed-guideway a Use Scenarios to for the Alternatives. l combinations of Transportation Systems The System Preservation ( #7) will not require separate travel demand data because the TRM (model) is not designed to be sensitive to the levels of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), Travel Demand Management (TDM) and the other related programs and policies inherent in the System Preservation Alternative. The impact of these particular programs and polices will be accounted for after the model is run (these are sometimes called off -model credits). (Description of Transportation Systems Each Transportation System is composed of many highway, transit and other transportation projects. A review of the long list of projects is a difficult task. The table on page 4 provides a summary of the major projects in each of the Transportation Systems to highlight the level and type of investment in the three major modes — highway, bus transit and fixed- guideway. The detailed Highway and Transit project lists are presented at the end of this section. To compute the transportation system performance measures, the Triangle Regional Model (TRM) does not account for transportation facilities and services related to bicycles, pedestrians, Travel Demand Management (TDM), Transportation System Management (TSM), and Intelligent Transportation System (TSM). These facilities and services are accounted for after the model process occurs (called post processing adjustments), and therefore they are not listed in the Transportation System project lists. 4-2 0 a m 0 m m 0 E m 0 m ai N CD 42 P F z to b O of b� b Tr O wl ' � � H N M rn e� U o� NJ: N -d°o cl r:4 v i7 y °rb A5 r+ ® QI O O 0 .2-6 N a "Oo U2 mi °O 9+ '+''.... vQ � [e:a r C• d �° ° ° C. � � aO s N 4.4 rA in Wl 042 Cd p (�0m v cwo O a y g CD 0412 a a a eei o� o°E cc M �a o ' y°A� E�- aa O � 0 i.► 4 O ;Pb s .0 NU V��a�WNa�W U WF+rr� C� v v L—Lj I d/ c;s c 0 S `o D .6 m 0 m Q E c 0 ca n .--i MW PmmW SWOO W w� W 9 CIS O O 4.4 m CIS 3 0 0 3 v G U2 p. g79 ooi b q & aU� m G4 o, S�IQb off ❑ a�H O of N 0A mb c Od o II >g ?a.04 -0 �A�w° a• G. � •.. W G at '� G Owilm ocso� .o b 5 it • � •� y H 3 C7 : W + a 'C3 11 A .a q o a�i y '` � U2 v�a.nNq v v S. 0 ` n DO Cd �: •� d m �+ a> o 'O p C p �✓" O .G p 5 -- �.b ' �b a '•o aao at z • • ------ - - - - -- • • • --------- - - - - -- • ------------ - - - - -- . • • ------------------------------ O . , --------- - - - - -- -m' q q q q � � •� � N s N d•� O Ly b � •� � a tn b w M H 5 ti k S M .'� 2 V1 q ter r q 'r tai q� N r, q 6i q ati_ pp 0 bN A !p � •lR7S .0 3 a� as .. b bO p .5 d bAC 3 == 79 Qb 3 3 N y cb n b }, N ) q N O �# . a+ .Y oaaOpaS �p.oaao ,s c�aa0 aopg • • • • • • • • • • • --- — ------------ • • • • O - ---- --- --- ------- • • • ---- ---- - --- • -® -® - --- -- - -- --- ------ - --- -- -------- ---- ------ b z .�� 00 t0 b^ q 3 9 79 4 0 o • H w H a^" o.rs, aE,a New a y0 0�� '• A, ° �i, o 00 0°� vi o a�> a>^ o a>O a;� a>> as O on °• v� N. DO ti o M�vI O H ) z H I O oo p iv � z H t� e • e • • • e • • • • • e • • • • e • • • e s • • • • r •� 1� n pw �MII PCA w `I w' PIZ rte. m CIS 3 0 0 3 v G U2 p. g79 ooi b q & aU� m G4 o, S�IQb off ❑ a�H O of N 0A mb c Od o II >g ?a.04 -0 �A�w° a• G. � •.. W G at '� G Owilm ocso� .o b 5 it • � •� y H 3 C7 : W + a 'C3 11 A .a q o a�i y '` � U2 v�a.nNq v v Section 4 - Altematives - Maps Maps of Transportation Systems This section presents one hioLway and one tr ansit map for each of the five proposed transportation systems, including: o Comprehensive Transportation Plan (CTP); • Intensive Highway; • Intensive Fixed- Guideway; • Intensive Bus Transit; and, • Moderate Multimodal. In addition, there is a one bic cle facility and one off -road facility map. The various transportation systems have the same set of bicycle and off -road facility projects, and therefore, these maps don't vary from one system to another- 4-5 CHAPEL DURHAM .. METROPOLITAN PLANNING ORGANIZATIO Roadway Improvements Alternative DURHAM CHAPEL HILL • • METROPOLITAN PLANNI- • . Roadway Highway Intensive Alternative N �i WE n st , s pto.: MPOSoundary el HIH County Soundarin am corough r Munidpalbas m hTriangle Pork DURHAM - METROPOLITAN PLANNING ORGANIZATIOI Roadway Improvements -• Guideway ®. Naw/lmproved Intarsocitons ■ ■ s 4-5 Lane Divided New Location Canhoro MPC Boundary . 4.5 Lane Divided Improvement Chapel Hill - Calmly Boundaries HOV Projects �5 -Lane Divided Improvement Durham _"�'IrderstMes, -% US and NO Highways , Upgrade to Freeway Mlishorough Roadways in Fixed Guideway Alternative" - New Freeway/Expressway other Municipalities • 23 Lane Now Location Upgrade Etdsting Freeway Research Triangle Park �� �a r nne Yrtromvament ; _ _ _ Transportation 205 The Louis Berger Group, Inc. 8.62008 Milos 0 1.25 25 5 DURHAM CHAPEL HILL CARRBORO MF.TROPOLITAN Improvements DURHAM METROPOLITAN PLANNING ORGANIZATION Roadway Modified Alternative ®.. Naw4mproved Intersecllons' ■ 4-5 Lana Divided New Lncatlan ^ _.. Danboro _MPo Boundary >_iw 45 Lane Divided Improvement Chapel Hip County Boundaries HOV Projects �IMorststea- 6-Lane Divided Improvement Durham wand NO Highways = Upgrade to Freeway f Hillsborough Roadways in Modified Aiterttative - -= Nor FroewsylF.xpressway othor Municipa6ges -• 2-3 Lane Now Location: ", on= Upgrade F,dsgng Freeway Research Triangle Park �- 2 -3 Lane Improvement On -Road Bicycle Facilities Off -Road Bicycle Facilities [This page left blank intentionally] Section 4 - Attematives - Project Tables Tables of Transportation Systems This section presents one highway project and one transit project table that shows which project are in each of the five proposed transportation systems and in the benchmark systems such as the Existing plus Committed (E+C) and 2030 LRTP (the current long range plan that is to be updated by the 2035 LRTP). 4-19 w a) .0 cc 0 CD 0 (L 0 U N U) CL C M CL fi U) ce) 0 N yin E cu E z z E w U) L C> 1= 0 0 C> a, C) 0 o C, 0 C, U Cc A: en C� 0 0 — — C5 — CD 00 CD 0 0 C> O C) C:) 0 0 0 CD 0 OW -0 r= M 1:11) U M bE u a bE bt a a m t1c a tc u ot d -a -a C r. r r. a a 41 z Z- Z� -00 �r Z- z z ed z 'a -P Ja Ja -E Ja 4 -e -E -E ii ii -E -E -E -E U 1:� m Q m m n Q 1=1 n 0 Q m m Q Q 0 m m Q Q Q C� Q 0 000 Q m Z o C) cu m M CO UQ 00 P. s > :E 2 E Z ic� Iz It N 0 'o -- -- fo U 4 4 .-O.. r> cm — Zt, — -4 — - - - - en ao mi lz� I 1 W U w c-4 c-41 eq 4 z C14 N N Z Z C4 z - Z Z� c" I cq 't Z� �o 4 A A z A, A. u z u z d) 0 o t- r/l :I a U u v u ti In CD C) w E 7R U 0 :3 0 �o 0 Z r U 00 o u z C> In U 0 0 0 to va z u ct4 M .0 , u R. zo . z 9 .2 - jo 0 0 �1. u Z 0 D -,t In C, u r-) 0 fa u h -14 0 z zi .90 o Z 0, Z C', I 000 I P4 0 0 7. > 0 U CQ - = C 0 O x x A, 'A' ID 0; D It rn u PQ in u u u u u u C'I cn -,d- In In -I ld-1 I I 1 -11-111-121 =1 111411 1 11 FdL-U"o E z z E w U) ca W .f a) w E 2 0 C, Of cn IL ca CL ii LO Cl) 0 CM O O O O cn N S) .0 ca F- CD f EL cc E 0 U a) U) V C m IL is to M 0 04 N N 54 O n z E w z o. ca EL (D ca E 2 ZZ 0 IL C m CL O N U) CZ CD V k O O O ri) in CO 0 CD U) ca aNN LO O CM ;I O S n Z E w z E cn CD CD c:, CD C) CD CD C> C:) C) C� C:, Ls th 000 cD C) C) 0 0 C> C) — — — — — — — — — — c O z z U Q p Q z 0 -0 -00 '00 v Z .b bbbb 4 cq cq z z bN C A z A 0 g 0 In 0 q 0 z 00 > ca E 0 r U cn 0 oW mo bi td 2 R o .0 0 0 0 of a wo con ol -d CD CY, V4 m ,It al O S n Z E w z E cn N N n m ca U N O a E d �t c 0 3 (n IL V C IL J O co O N d w Q a CO O a R U) N T a J O N C O G V m O d 3 m z i E m z U O n V cn m v m L W O n. 2: li E 0 3 CD cn • O C4 u G 0 z CD co E 0 z 0 IWO, C�!) 0 TT=:,(:, C, - I.. C) C) C) C) C) C) C) CD C) C) CD CD C) 0 O C) C) O O C) O Cl CD a r O C) O I 0 a C, 01 C, C) C) C) CD C) C) - - - - - - - - - - - C) C) C� CD a CD CD CD Cl CD C> Cl CD 0 oil r1 N C� C� CD Cl CD CD C) Cl CD L CD C) C) Cl C, a) a) Cc: C r :3 =1 E 0 .2 0 a D CL c 0 o r- 0 0— a 0 0 (D .2 a o 0 E E E 0 E a) x w (D w 0) cr- -j owom 0 a <L z z z z z aw N C, co C) to C) (D C> C14 C) C14 C) to co C) co C14 co O 4 Z Z C4 P4 in U') ce) M C� CN C) CN C) Ce) Cl C) C) 0 C) cr) 0 — NT U to 0 cd z Cd 0 0 0 o z co u C4 c 0 z u u 0 Cd C's 0 0 —0 t9 U En C) C* u cd 0 u 2 m 0 " '. g tn u 0 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cd 0 0 0 0 0 -0 df cz 0 u -0 o Uu < IC < < < < I— I in) I co— I-- (WO I (n — I rn W rn (D co 0 z CD co E 0 z 0 IL C.) CL o 0 d. CD U) CL IL O O CL '4. C; 1 116 75 E 2 O z 0 < < < o 'm 'm o o o 0 Or. IRRS -s 0 0 "Cl o 0 0 0 oc 00 Eq 0 a) a) rz. �Z- 44 05 -0 z Z z U z U z (D o < Tz. 0. C14 m cn < C;, �o c) I r- I r- N r- wt-. 100 00 go 00 00 LILL t— N wo CN4 en (7% N C� CM,) 75 E 2 O z 0 0 m IL 4; Cc > CL is E —J 0 Cc V) CL C4 cn (D cc 0 C Z 75 E 2 C: 16 Z 0 mum HIM a H Mill �i0m00o0aa maav0am0�0am0a'0aaaaaam0' �ieoeeeeeeeoeeoeomeoeeoeeeeoaa0amaamo �iaam0e0�am0aoaaa0oaa '0a00�0aa0mam0aoaa �eeeEe�eeeeeeee�eee ee°e�ee9 °a e ° °o eCCC 16�� H y 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 '� `� `� c° `� aaaaaaaaaxxxx�r���xr�xxxc�r���tiaatititiatia A.- „• ^„ r, ,_„ ,.. ._, .- .•+ N fV tV CV N hl CV N CV N tV fV fV (V fV (`l N 46S 46S En 46S IS E's Cc a LL l0^! .�1 V �[ to � to to .'n, rte., �, - - '� in � 'n, — �, .. .�- 'n. �— W) IV') ''�, '�. �- �-+ O C �. N y F t-��r���rr�tia`titi�h�ti�N� 1= � ddddddddd �UVUUUVUUUUUUC.�UUUC.�c.�UUU HHHHHE "HHHd`CddUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUVUUU �n A A A A A A A A A HIE- HH H A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A b b ' +=' Cd cd 000 VJ V7 VJ d' Ci' •=i •� V N Ci �,y .� Z U U iy ics D> y T p r. p C U H F � A 4 'o 0 Z', p p o u o Q A Bi w' U U. U 0 ° A A o o 5 o cc ca flan p o p o a n �. 0 0 c U U o ti o A A A d d A R' ce o co ca a s o b > o 0 0 �� o o �.o.c o c.c.c oxx3' cl o b °° U U U Ry . •� U U .0 CY MCI H H o 0 0 o d o o c� oUUtQ W o oAU U2ZU r L oo v� \� ad .n d v a6__,,hLU_AU8�L.L.h1 in r [- oD o0 O� N 00 N_ S2 cM v v U 0 m m 0 c m II Q z m E d c. 0 z n 0 E d c Ir (a a) .o CD .ff Q. ca E 2 0 :B CD (n CL CL Cl) Q C14 U) ILI I CE ct I., 1 14, 0 O II E C) E U UEU uuuu MMMmMUUUUUUUUUU uuuuuuuuuuuuuu M El -Re CL �D ga M-0 0 0 0 0 •0 cn cn cn 0 0 cn 0 9 r. 0 229991 Go 00 00 00 00 o o > > C,4 C'l 9-- cl 2 9 -09 "-o 0 m m C� E), 9 9 '0 8 8 -0 o o o 9 r, 0 0) 2 0 0 z u 6 Cd co 0 tn u u u uuuuuuuuuu u Z z �:z I'D I N cn UUUUUUUUUUUC-) "D Zo "D "D 00 Z a\ Cl — V- Cq t- m P �t t- u 0� 0 cn M[", 0 O II E C) E 1111111111 low UNION am00mm00�m0aa'a a HE aeeaaeeomm�meeeoe 'aeeeooemmoeee � oet eea0eoeeeeeoeeemeeeeeeemeeeoeeeo GIs' ee�e��eee�eese�e�e� me�eee�ele�C .0 30 3 ..O y .0 .0 vi vi ai vyi .0 .fl � � .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 � � .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 «3 CCi tCf lCi iii a1 CCi i�-� L 4Ui SUi CG a1 SU.� iU.r CCS RS a3 tCI CLS RS �"� �" U U U U U U c. a U Q� 0 0 0 0 >C 00 %'� >: i< k 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7C iG 0 a a a t— ~ w G y d 0 �.0 . a.0 . c0 . IWO i w w w w rw w w w w w w w w w w w o � Q a C a > CL Im 0 : �a' 0 o 0 0 o Z o o Z Z o 0 0 o z Z o 0 0 0 0 o Z Z o 0 0 0 0 o z z o 0 0 0 ' M o Cry., a � N H R U4�' tnknkn Zknv,ZZ In. kn-Ltn tn' ntn llintnv,'llnInZZtnkn -ntn F= x (MUUUUUUUUUUUUUVUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU 2 0 c 0 O oU o U z o > O� 0 0 07 .0 te a+ p d o W W p 0?� pa; � CL CL rn C o s C oo o ;>0o3 O 0 0 W 0 � m d Z > a i U 0 � c �° c P7 b o m 0 0 U U '� � a� .� ... a� C � .� � o NNww �rstd ZZMMUUaawwNN a��0��'g a n 0 M U y CN N °y' y p p O �i W d U U U U U U A A U U M� /� U W U U Pa W CG W W W w W CQ W W W w rl d 1 R; U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U v Q A � Q, ��� rn� CN 0 0 0 O Q O O Q O O° --� •N-' '� N �' `O° `N `N° 'M° e n N N N N N N N (V N N N N N N N N N N N `' a) ca U N O d N E cn a , c 0 N CL U G L� r 0 M 0 N d ea i Q a� �o a v., C L 'r. N N (6 O C f6 [0 0 it Q z 0 0 0 s~ , - - - - - - - - - - - 0 C. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 C ' In Qa y; O O — .-. .-. .-. .-, .-, .-� r-, .-. .-. O O O O Q '1 "T wI TIIHa; , d '� '� •O � � � '° •� y .� .Q y y y N f/1 V7 VI Vl fq fn N V1 p1 Vl U] N y N � ..O . .O -��.>> .° - .° _c � .° -9 � ..° .° � .fl a y N ti N . .n - .aw _CD S1 . _ctc N c y N ..� •� co y Itnn . � .° .fl ..° g .a .O m i s F F F ' o 0 0 0 0 o o o X X ww X ww 0 aw 0 aw 0 aw 0 aw 0 aw 0 aw aw aw aw a.0 0 ad aw aw PaO mO a PaO a aw a aw aw aw w ww aw ww ww aw fQO w w w w w I vx O O O ) CD CD O d d z z O O O O • 1 O i O ,(�W O n�s O .-•o 1 1 '(�W O 1 r(�W n0 H z .0 O O r0 1 H �-� I H CD . rVj�j�W 1 r��(�(�W �h H z �x eN 1 rN r, .-U r(�r�P,4 e� F U � � � VH 1 7 � 1 V(�(�W ) '0 !a. ��H ii,,0 rH � ii -° ' ��f(C(CW V V h in V in h �z M ((CCW .° � ..0 ��w..° ((CCW .. �� �� MM W yyyy ��.. ,, yy rrW �� yy ��.teU. (�(�W �� yy ���. .. �� rrW �� MM W U U U y U U U U U U �--s,•�y U U �°w U jCW U �co.y� U U W U U U U ,' U U U U U U U U U U ° ~ ` ° .C� .0 .Co`° y � ° � x .� ° A p d " ° b O kn U° ca d b 0 U W U Z o . c CIJ � , Vs v �y 45 , a) o d c a „ ! 0 o a v , ° U5 U W , v>r i U o ° ° U ` " 'ti U Q 0 ` � o � a ° n o x o o ° o Q ° c vo i prr , �1 U c ' - o Go > w yy . Uo . o W° U , c 0 En O .6 wO � � O � r U O U O O O OGz cn o< M w�v 7 xc`y 7" x •° - ti o x x x x 8 8 x m 4 0 0 0 U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U mlm t C \O ti oo N N O N .-, N N N m k d• V1 N N �° N [� N 00 N Q\ N O -+ N N N m N �t N N n 00 N o0 N N °i N M M U v v U N N (6 O C f6 [0 0 it Q z �9199169119019911e1�000000rooro�oo�� �0m�0mm�aoaa '�mm�amateeteemeoeeooeee �laoa0aa a000m �m a'aam0a��0a00aeaam0 �eeeeomea0eeeeeeeooeeoeeoeeomeooeeoe �100�00 10000am�0am0aoeeeeeoemeeeeemee �I�i ���� � =Ae�00eee�eee�em vv m 4v 1C �►�►�► �► �► �►�► �► �► ► ► ► o►w► ► v� U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A C) U U C) O a o z It 0 z u O Z O H Z W U U O R t5 cd b U U c o y o U U ✓ a-+ N W U :� 06 - .-. U •O U U W d raU O U -� U 5 O •N U i � W � �d Q tY1XCt�L a. � pa,� M f� a 00 0 6 C> U U U M U ,6 V 00 o o o ?✓�? W O�Om,OUCa`m�Pa�pPa+m� Y�O�OgO °' .��a� ON %+ M fn 0 M M O {� O 'o - {=7 1 , 00 00 — q q 2, N � GvJ V � � � '.i. .S4 N M d' C� N N N N N N .N-, n M M N N m 0 m m 0 I z ca EEi C O Z II 0 N .@ E d c n d t t� R R c� �4 R+' �4 �., C4 c4 a = o o o o o c � � � � ���������������aaracaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa N .. a°�i oai aoi °���o 'laoli av l 4 WE 41 44 a d > CL d 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O'' 4 O CO) v a ci 0 N a H `° (�.y1 (�y.1 (F�.1 (i�y.� (�.�.1 C) U U C) O a o z It 0 z u O Z O H Z W U U O R t5 cd b U U c o y o U U ✓ a-+ N W U :� 06 - .-. U •O U U W d raU O U -� U 5 O •N U i � W � �d Q tY1XCt�L a. � pa,� M f� a 00 0 6 C> U U U M U ,6 V 00 o o o ?✓�? W O�Om,OUCa`m�Pa�pPa+m� Y�O�OgO °' .��a� ON %+ M fn 0 M M O {� O 'o - {=7 1 , 00 00 — q q 2, N � GvJ V � � � '.i. .S4 N M d' C� N N N N N N .N-, n M M N N m 0 m m 0 I z ca EEi C O Z II 0 N .@ E d c n U) a) a cc F- 16 CD O C, 3 CD co G. cc CL O O W ca (D E 6 Z 0 Section 4 - Altematilves - Project Tables [This page left blank intentionally] 4-36 Section 5 - Land Use Scenarios 2035 LRTP and CTP Land Use Scenarios Land Use Scenarios Proposed Background The Durham- Chapel Hill- Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization (DCHC MPO) prepared Socioeconomic Data (SE Data) based on the current land use plans and policies of local jurisdictions for the year 2005 and 2035. The SE Data shows the location of population and employment throughout the planning area. The Transportation Advisory Committee (TAC — the DCHC MPO policy board) approved this SE Data for use with the Triangle Regional Model (TRM) at their meeting on September 12, 2007. The TRM uses the SE Data to generate trips and show how those trips will be accommodated on highways, transit and other transportation modes, and then produces transportation system performance data, such as the level of congestion and vehicle miles traveled, for the Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) and Comprehensive Transportation Plan (CTP). The question is often asked during the development process — How might changes in land use plans or policies affect the design and performance of future transportation system? And, how might local jurisdictions change their land use plans and policies to realize a desired outcome in the future transportation system? The DCHC MPO has created land use scenarios as part of the 2035 LRTP and CTP development process to evaluate the impacts that land use changes might have on the transportation system performance data of the TRM (travel demand model). That is, the MPO has developed alternative land use assumptions that change the SE Data that was approved in September 2007. The SE Data approved in September 2007 is often referred to as the Baseline SE data. Contents of this Document This presentation of the land use scenarios is detailed and lengthy. Therefore, therefore it will help the reader to know the principal contents of this document: • Summary of Land Use Scenarios -- The concept of the proposed land use scenarios are summarized in the table on page 2. Begins on page 22. • Scenario Review — Tables and maps show how the future population and employment would change to achieve each Scenario. Tables begin on pa-e3 and maps begin on page 7. a V 0 W � aPC M � N a N v N � cd N °0 v y tD O E p p i O i ° v ° O bA U bq U U rn o z �z�.4 O °' x z ° V U ed = A y ti 0 .0 U '+ O �O Y p� b49 O A 'C . �CCi v G,' v ii ' pU ❑ ' . v y O 'v U v �pcct 9 ° c� v p a�i H b o a�i b o Cd as co > oy� v—,, U 0 v , ell 3 ° o CZ b y O� U U N O N O v O O ;.j � O A °� y Q,1 U ray A, d c .Li O U � 0 , 4- O o U v O b cd cd O v ~ ° O O p 4-4 > p b o, U i avY�,N O y v � b CCS cz �.v. y aa�dAb -a �.� �.n�• �b v b v� En n U > O, rn v v v O cd bq.v v abi o ^b o~ Y A O O cc -cy ^O °t1. v 'cam .ry Ua O ti ^" U:, Q. t3 y d O O ti O L� as O Y� cn v := O y O O U N ^p U � a :;5 C a i�, � ~ �C �b � v -d a b v b n' ca d7 Hz z acl v� HU z N M tn N Section 5 - Land Use Scenarios • Recommended Policies — There is a discussion of the objectives of each scenario and a list of sample policy directions to realize the scenarios. Begins on page 21. Additional. Information There are a few additional points that are important to understanding the use of these scenarios: CAMPO Participation — The Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO) has developed SE Data for a set of land use scenarios that complement the four DCHC MPO land use scenarios. The SE Data for these scenarios has been combined and checked by the Triangle Regional Model Service Bureau. Scenario Implementation -- The TAC might be able to adopt the SE Data produced by a favorable land use scenario. The 2035 LRTP and Air Quality Conformity Determination would also be based on this newly adopted SE Data. Scenario Review This section presents several methods for reviewing the Scenarios. Total Comparison The two tables on page 4 compare the total employment and population for each Scenario with the Baseline SE Data (the data approved by the TAC for use in the 2035 LRTP development and that is based on the current land use plans and policies of the jurisdictions). The tables demonstrate that the overall totals for the Travel Corridor and Transit Nodes Scenarios remain equal to the Baseline SE Data, and that the Buildout and Constrained Scenarios show expected increases and decreases, respectively, compared to the Baseline SE Data. 5-3 ca ca CL o c U U E co �o L 0 0 � • f D N G U t0 C �s G = C O N N 4 U N. O m Ca 0 01 U U my E O 3 L C C U C m O 0. N F L OO L U Z O E O Un ca w o. L y fn fA O L O O > Section 5 - Land Use Scenarios Movement Comparison The total population and employment in the Travel Corridor and Transit Node Scenarios remains the same as that of the Baseline SE Data. However, the individual TAZ totals increase and decrease to depict a shift, or movement, of the population and employment from one TAZ to another. The two tables on page 6 show the amount of population and employment movement that occurs in these two Scenarios for the various jurisdictions, and indicates what percentage of the total this movement represents. TAZ Maps The remaining pages in this section present ten maps: A population and employment map showing the forecasted growth in each TAZ from the year 2005 through 2035 for the Baseline Scenario. There is one map for each county. A population and employment map for each of the four Scenarios. The map coloring depicts the level of increase or decrease of population and employment in each TAZ (Traffic Analysis Zone) for that Scenario. The reader can distinguish the expected patterns such as the increases around transit stations and along corridors for the Transit Node and Travel Corridor Scenarios, and decreases in areas of low transportation access for the Constrained Scenario. TAZ Tables The tables showing the detailed SE Data for each of the four scenarios are voluminous and therefore are not included in this document. The tables are available on the MPO's Web site — www dchhcmpo.or, or by contacting Andy Henry, (919) 560 -4366, andrew.heM@durhamnc.gov. @durhamnc.gov. 5-5 w 0 c N v U) 4) in v c m J LC) C O U CD U) C ^y E `W 5O G L O �L L O V d L W E `W 5O G d O Z L to L6 1 Pop. Increase i aa�o .L1�1 WA kTPj-'MM%,r-;O r... 4, ®�- x'11 Pop. Increase i aa�o .L1�1 WA kTPj-'MM%,r-;O r... 4, ®�- %tip 11*49, IL 1174 El 1-50 250 51 - 251-500 City of Duhom Transportation GIS S. Map p,,pwed.by. on July 11. poses 501-1,000 hi..u. aoan isbi.-gfee— Pe 5 hereon .-rees. > 1,000 MM Is �tmp'p-,t,-d only and he voluble The City ofDurimm/Dudlem G.uoty assumes no respon-l- bifity for am= wising from the misuse of this map 1 IL %tip 11*49, IL 1174 El • • ,' • r r- 1 1 • i r • • Rr �`.y t?- a.`�- ,° y x''i pssm..�.,. IS IF-, x t q �s���.,s,_� �t J ff�E,��-�s� � ��?'� � � ,• +s�'`fiJ' --r+ ^ ',t iu.s �'.� � r zs �t� e - i��� `a.. ui s-"' rF-- err, a f5s - Sall ��V-� - �.yr•, '"..�' �, `.�'"' s x S'ECt ?n �' , #t 1� or E� sx t J f t , t� ° t j;i s t it t y lst � i =i 5 1, �` �t r �i��.,u s.• a; z s f c 1 r t x� t' T r t x� �RfSv' P tiy�� •3 L >?i ry ti z xy' cl r S 'ter t. "�.>!h= ✓„ '� i `§-f- .a"".� x s"t't r�-�k� n1-. Ys-r f27 5� fx�� 3 Yr" 3 i f f tp ��"3`'R.,ka*�x -.'s t du 'W.§.�F-'*a .o. -� r {w`F< Map f .,-'v'ru�r f 5 1 -.J ;ill- a5. gg �adz7 ,:nt. °* `T-- `•.�{aai ,5"'�" `�n4 ¢ r iT'��`l��Ery {i"�ii Pop. Increase < 1 #' iL 1-50 EM 51-250 tidy 251-500 Map prepared by City of Durham Transportation GIS an July 11, 2007. n 501 - 1x000 information nly and Is depicted hereon Is eat reference purposes Doty and is compiled from the best avaiabie sources. The City of DurhamlDurham County assumes no responsi- 4,`, t i 1 r 000 btity for arras adsin0 from the misuse of this nap. See lon 5- land Use Scenados Buildout L.U. Scenario -- Population rr%w" , rari to Baseline 5.13 Section 5 - Land Use SCen2de5 Buildout L.U. Scenario -- Employment P^mnnrari to Baseline 5-14 Constrained L.U.nScenario -- Population Compared to Baseline Fixed Guideway Station c Addt9 Transit Nodes Population Change Increase > 500 3r _ Increase 101 to 500 Increase 1 to 100 No Change Decrease 1 to 100 r'- Decrease 101 to 500 Decrease > 500 Section 5 -Lend Use Smnados Constrained L.U. Scenario -- Employment t+_..o....,r•e.� fn Raca -line_ 5-15 Sedbn 5 -Land Use Sceneries Travel Corridor L.U. Scenario -- Population 5-17 Section 5 -Land Use Scenarios Travel Corridor L.U. Scenario -- Employment t-.,mnnrprI to Baseline 5.15 Section 5 -Land Use Scenarios Transit Node L.U. Scenario -- Population r-e%mnnrpd to Baseline 5-19 sedbn 5 -land Use Scenarios Transit Node L.U. Scenario -- Employment to Ra -qeline Section 5 - Land Use Scenarios Policy Direction for Land Use Scenarios Introduction In preparing the Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), the Durham- Chapel Hill- Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) has developed a series of alternative land use scenarios. The purpose of these scenarios is to explore how patterns of land use different from those reflected in adopted land use plans would affect travel demand. The MPO staff presented those scenarios to the Transportation Advisory Committee (TAC) in spring 2008. A reasonable question that follows is, "What objectives and policies would the MPO's jurisdictions have to put into place to begin moving the community in the direction outlined in the scenario ?" Below is a preliminary response to the question. This memo presents various sample policy directions that local governments could pursue to begin to implement the scenarios. The policy directions suggested below span a range of complexity and political acceptability. Some are relatively easy to implement, while others may require complex planning studies and revisions to land use codes. They may require significant research, legal advice, and potentially enabling legislation to implement. Some may be inexpensive, while others may require a significant shift in priorities for operating and capital budgets. Note that this list of policy directions is preliminary and not exhaustive. Other policy directions or variations of these might be the best fit for the implementing the changes that the scenarios envision. Clearly, broader discussion with a variety of stakeholders about long range community goals and objectives would be needed to reach agreement how best to proceed. Scenario 1 -- Baseline The baseline scenario represents the fundamental projection of the MPO's future for purposes of transportation modeling. Fundamentally, the scenario assumes that land is developed over the next few decades in a manner consistent with the adopted land use plans, policies, and official actions of MPO jurisdictions. Projections of employment and housing were developed by determining what amount of housing and employment could be expected from each of several hundred traffic analysis zones, based on the future land use anticipated. Assumptions are used to account for: a) land undevelopable for environmental reasons (floodplains, stream buffers, etc.); b) the density and intensity of future development; and c) the proportion of development that might be expected by the 2035 planning horizon of the LRTP. The Baseline Scenario forms the basis for the adopted LRTP and the Air Quality Conformity Determination. Scenario 2 -- Build -Out The Build -Out Scenario is similar to the Baseline Scenario in that it represents the amount of housing and employment that could be expected if the MVO area were to develop in a manner consistent with adopted land use plans, policies, and official actions of MPO jurisdictions. However, the Build -Out Scenario is not "time constrained." It does not focus on a future 5-21 Section 5 - Land Use Scenarios year, 2035, as the Baseline Scenarios does, but instead on an end state. It assumes that the entire scope of the MVO is developed. Scenario 3 -- Constrained Growth The Constrained Growth Scenario is the first of three that asks the question, "What might the future projections of employment and housing, and ultimately travel demand, be if the MPO was to alter its land use and development policies ?" This scenario assumes that long range land use plans and development regulations would be consciously changed to scale down the amount of new development allowed each year. It also assumes that mechanisms be established to prevent growth beyond a certain annual target level. Scenario Objective: Local governments planning and policy actions to constrain growth in housing and employment by 2035 of approximately Scenario, and up to 35 percent in Chatham County. m the MPO should employ conscious certain locations, resulting in forecast 10 percent less than for the Baseline A. Land Use Planning 1. Develop a systematic and defensible method for determining the maximum amount of development that the local jurisdiction wants to accommodate each year and the basis for that determination. 2. Change local urban growth area boundaries to limit the extent of urban and suburban development. 3. Restrict the extension of sewer and water utilities. B. Land Use Regulation 1. Develop a systematic and defensible method of evaluating and selecting highly desirable development projects that will be considered for legislative approval each year. Scenario 4 -- 'gavel Corridors The Travel Corridors Scenario speculates about what might be the effect on housing, employment, and travel demand from a conscious effort to achieve a different land use pattern in the MPO 'area. The focus in this scenario is on new development along major arterial roadways. This approach assumes the same amount of employment and housing growth, but assigns it to locations different than in the Baseline Scenario. Scenario Objective: Local governments in the MPO should employ conscious planning and policy actions to focus a significant portion of future growth into transit- oriented corridors, including Downtown Durham. Ensure that new development is located and designed in an appropriate manner and that appropriate regional and local transit service are available. Develop effective strategies to encourage new development in Corridor areas and discourage new development elsewhere. 5-22 Section 5 - Land Use Scenarios A. Land Use Planning 1. Through the Comprehensive Plan Future Land Use Map, identify transit oriented corridors as the land within a certain distance (perhaps i/4 mile) from major arterial streets. Examples in Durham include Roxboro Road, Main Street/Hillsborough Road, University Drive /Chapel Hill Road, Alston Avenue/NC 55, Holloway Street/NC 98, Miami Blvd, and NC 54. Other examples include: US 15 -501 (Gateway area) in Chapel Hill; I -85 in Orange County; NC 54 by -pass in Carrboro; and Old NC 86 in the southern part of Hillsborough. 2. Prepare detailed small area plans to identify locations in transit- oriented corridor areas for mixed use and high intensity development, transit stops /stations, structured parking, pedestrian/bicycle facilities, other infrastructure, etc. B. Land Use Regulation 1. Create a transit- oriented corridor zoning overlay district or base district. 2. Establish minimum land use intensity (residential density in dwelling units per acre and non - residential floor area ratios) for new development in the transit - oriented corridor district. 3. Require a high level of pedestrian and bicycle connections within the transit - oriented corridor district and between the district and surrounding neighborhoods. 4. Require accommodation for bus transit in specific locations identified in the small area plan for the transit- oriented corridor. 5. Prepare design guidelines and review new development against the guidelines to ensure that new development is transit, pedestrian, and bicycle friendly. 6. Prohibit auto - intensive land uses. 7. Significantly restrict surface parking and encourage /require structured parking. 8. Amend the development review and approval process to provide a higher priority and reduced application fees to new development in transit- oriented corridors and a lower priority and higher application fees for new development outside of transit- oriented corridors. C. Transportation System Management (TSM) 1. Systematically assess the designated transit- oriented corridors to identify opportunities for TSM and roadway improvements to better coordinate traffic flow, especially with increased bus traffic. 2. Incorporate a program of TSM and roadway improvements into the jurisdiction's CIP. D. Transportation Demand Management (TDM) 1. Prepare a TDM Plan for each transit- oriented corridor, including objectives and strategies to reduce traffic congestion; manage parking; and make the corridor area a desirable place to live, work, and visit. 2. Require that TDM improvements and programs be included in any new development in accordance with the TDM Plan. 5-23 Section 5 - Land Use Scenarios E. Transit Service ansit service along the arterials in the transit - 1. Provide a high level of bus tr oriented corridors. 2. Ensure that transit amenities are convenient and comfortable to encourage transit use. Amenities could include benches, shelters, lighting, landscaping, public art and graphics, ticket vending machines, rider information displays, bicycle facilities, etc. F. Parking 1. Prohibit commercial parking lots as a stand -alone use in transit- oriented corridors. 2. Reduce or eliminate required parking in transit- oriented corridors. 3. Establish a maximum parking requirement in transit- oriented corridors. Scenario 5 - Transit Compact Zone The Transit Compact Zone Scenario also speculates about what might be the affect on housing, employment, and travel demand from a conscious effort to achieve a different land use pattern. The focus in this scenario is on new development in transit- oriented compact neighborhoods in strategic location in the MPO. Likewise, this approach assumes the same amount of employment and housing growth as the Baseline Scenario, but assigns it to different locations. Scenario Objective: Focus a significant proportion of future growth in compact neighborhoods. Ensure that that new development is located and designed in an appropriate manner and that appropriate regional and local transit service are available. Develop effective strategies to encourage new development in Transit Compact Zones and discourage new development elsewhere. A. Land Use Planning 1. Through the Comprehensive Plan Future Land Use Map, identify transit - oriented compact neighborhoods as the land within a certain distance (perhaps '/Z mile) from regional transit stops or stations. Examples in Durham include Roxboro Road, Main Street/Hillsborough Road, University Drive /Chapel Hill Road, Alston Avenue/NC 55, Holloway Street/NC 98, Miami Blvd, and NC 54. Other examples include: US 15 -501 (Gateway area), Carolina North, and UNC Hospitals in Chapel Hill; I -85 in Orange County; NC 54 by -pass in Carrboro; and Old NC 86 in the southern part of Hillsborough 2. Prepare detailed small area plans to identify locations in transit- oriented compact neighborhoods for mixed use and high intensity development, transit stops /stations, structured parking, pedestrian/bicycle facilities, other infrastructure, etc. B. Land Use Regulations 1. Create a transit- oriented compact neighborhood zoning district. 5-24 Section 5 - Land Use Scenarios 2. Establish minimum land use intensity ratios(residential for ew development dwelling i he transit acre and non - residential floor a ) oriented compact neighborhood district. 3. Require a high level of pedestrian and bicycle cle cO between the within district oriented compact neighborhood surrounding neighborhoods. 4. Require accommodation for bus transit in specific locations identified in the small area plan for the transit- oriented compact neighborhood. 5. Prepare design guidelines and review new development against the guidelines to ensure that new development is transit -, pedestrian -, and bicycle - friendly. 6. Prohibit auto - intensive land uses. 7. Significantly restrict surface parking and encourage /require structured parking. 8. Amend the development review and approval in transit compact zones and and reduced application fees for new a lower priority and higher application fees for new development outside of transit compact zones. C. Transportation System Management (TSM) orhood 1. Systematically assess the designated compact unprovements to better districts to identify opportunities for T SM and roadway coordinate traffic fl, oowespecially of TSM t and increased TOadway traffic. p ovements into the 2. Incorporate a p gt' � jurisdiction's CIP. D. Transportation Demand Management (TDM) 1. Prepare a TDM Plan for each transit-oriented reduceo neighborhoo st on; rnianage including objectives and strategies to parking; and make the corridor area a desirable place to live, work, and visit. 2. Require that TDM improvements and programs be included in any new development in accordance with the TDM Plan. E. Transit Service 1. Provide a high level of regional transit b to the transit- oriented compact neig odsen and bus feeder transit services 2. Ensure that transit amenities are convenient and comfortable t land ca in e transit use. Amenities could include benches, shelters, lighting, ping public art and graphics, ticket vending machines, rider information displays, bicycle facilities, etc. F. Parking g lots as a stand -alone use in transit- oriented 1. Prohibit commercial parkin compact neighborhood districts. in transit- oriented compact neighborhood 2. Reduce or eliminate required parking districts. 5-25