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Home My WebLink AboutAgenda 04-07-2026; 7-a - Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast 1 ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: April 7, 2026 Action Agenda Item No. 7-a SUBJECT: Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast DEPARTMENT: County Manager ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: Attachment 1. School Membership Kirk Vaughn, (919) 245-2153 Forecast — Carolina Demography UNDER SEPARATE COVER Attachment 2. School Enrollment Presentation To Be Provided Prior to or in Conjunction with the Meeting PURPOSE: To receive a report and presentation from Carolina Demography on enrollment projections for both school districts. BACKGROUND: Over the past three (3) years the SAPFOTAC, a technical advisory committee representing the County, the Towns of Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS) and Orange County Schools (OCS), have discussed making improvements to the School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) enrollment projection, based on commonly identified limitations of the process. At the December 10, 2024 Business meeting, the Board of County Commissioners authorized staff to provide notice to the parties of the SAPFO memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that the student projection methodology will be changed to be one employed by OREd or Carolina Demography. On March 16, 2025, the SAPFOTAC held its annual meeting, and received presentations from both consultants. The six (6) entities voted unanimously to recommend Carolina Demography to provide the future enrollment projections. The technical advisory committee appreciated the variety of variables that were used in Carolina Demography's previous enrollment projections, including population estimates, births, approved developments, and charter school enrollment. Carolina Demography provides enrollment projections for Wake County and Brunswick County. The Board approved use of Carolina Demography at the April 15, 2025 Business meeting and approved the contract on at the December 1, 2025 Business meeting. The report from Carolina Demography breaks down the various local, statewide, and national demographic factors that impact enrollment for both districts — aging population, declining birthrate, school choice market share, loss of international migration, and new developments. The change in international migration has only begun to occur in the last year, and so presents 2 challenges for the long-term projection. The impact of federal policies on international migration and school enrollment will need to be followed in subsequent enrollment forecasts. The ten-year enrollment projection estimates that enrollment in the CHCCS district will decline by 1,070 students, or 10% and OCS will decline by 593 students, or 9%. The major challenges identified for CHCCS is declining birthrate in the district and declining in-migration post-Covid. The major challenges identified for OCS are declining market share and possible out-migration from birth to kindergarten, as well as a lack of new development to offset these decreases. FINANCIAL IMPACT: There is no immediate impact of the enrollment projections. Changes in school district enrollment will have long term impacts on the county's operating and capital budgets. ALIGNMENT WITH STRATEGIC PLAN: This item supports: • GOAL 5: PUBLIC EDUCATION/LEARNING COMMUNITY OBJECTIVE 4. Improve learning environments by investing in facilities over a 10- year period that address repair, renovation, and educational adequacy needs. OBJECTIVE 5. Invest in and implement a plan that supports schools operational and facility funding needs. RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends the Board receive the presentation and report from UNC Demography and provide any comments and questions. 3 Student Membership Forecast: 2025-26 through 2035-36 Orange County: Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools and Orange County Schools 0 Orange x County ° Schools JEst.1909 NORTH CAROLINA ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA Carolina Demography at UNC-Chapel Hill's Carolina Population Center And Demographic Analytics Advisors, LLC CAROLINA �. CAROLINA M Demographic �. JNC POPULATION CENTER '11111111W� Analytics Advisors DEMOGR I PHY �� Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 4 Table of Contents Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................................2 Statewide Changes in Population, Enrollment, and Average Daily Membership (ADM) .........................................2 PopulationChanges.......................................................................................................................................................................2 English Language Learners (ELLs) ............................................................................................................................5 Enrollmentand ADM......................................................................................................................................................................6 Birthsand Birth to Kindergarten Ratios..........................................................................................................................................8 MarketShare Trends .....................................................................................................................................................................9 Orange County Changes in Population, Enrollment, and ADM ...............................................................................10 PopulationChanges.....................................................................................................................................................................10 Enrollmentand ADM....................................................................................................................................................................13 Enrollmentversus ADM...............................................................................................................................................14 Howwe Forecast..........................................................................................................................................................15 ForecastingDevelopment............................................................................................................................................................16 Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS)............................................................................................................17 Population Estimates and Births for CHCCS...............................................................................................................................18 CurrentADM Trends....................................................................................................................................................................20 MarketShare Trends ...................................................................................................................................................................22 Developments ..............................................................................................................................................................................23 BaselineForecast ........................................................................................................................................................................27 Forecastwith Development Yield.................................................................................................................................................29 Forecast with Facilities Utilization................................................................................................................................................33 OrangeCounty Schools (OCS)....................................................................................................................................36 Population Estimates and Births for OCS....................................................................................................................................36 CurrentADM Trends....................................................................................................................................................................38 MarketShare Trends ...................................................................................................................................................................39 Developments ..............................................................................................................................................................................40 BaselineForecast ........................................................................................................................................................................43 Forecast with Development Yield.................................................................................................................................................44 Conclusion....................................................................................................................................................................49 AppendixA....................................................................................................................................................................51 DataSources................................................................................................................................................................................51 AppendixB....................................................................................................................................................................53 Development Impact on CHCCS Schools: Elementary Schools.................................................................................................53 Development Impact on CHCCS Schools: Middle Schools.........................................................................................................57 Development Impact on CHCCS Schools: High Schools............................................................................................................61 AppendixC....................................................................................................................................................................63 Development Impact on OCS Schools: Elementary Schools......................................................................................................63 Development Impact on OCS Schools: Middle Schools..............................................................................................................65 Development Impact on OCS Schools: High Schools.................................................................................................................66 C A R O L I N A cAROLINA IT1 T WC Demographic 1 DEMOGR = HY tJPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 5 Introduction In November 2025, the Orange County Government's Budget Division invited our team to submit a proposal to develop a 10-year student membership forecast for Orange County Schools (OCS) and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS). The Budget Division and local district leadership emphasized two priorities in the selection process: deep familiarity with the local context and a comprehensive forecasting methodology that accounts for all components of student membership change. Following the submission of our proposal, we presented our approach to a staff working group and subsequently to the full Orange County Board of Commissioners. Upon selection, we entered into a formal partnership with Orange County, OCS, and CHCCS to develop the 2025-2026 10-Year Student Membership Forecast. This report presents the results of that forecast. Statewide Changes in Population, Enrollment, and Average Daily Membership (ADM) To understand the factors affecting ADM change at the local district level, it is helpful to discuss trends that are happening at the state level. These trends in population change, enrollment, and ADM change will help us to contextualize what is happening in CHCCS and OCS within the broader context of the state. Below, we begin by looking at population trends, and then move into a narrower discussion of what is happening with the school-aged population, enrollment, and ADM. Population Changes The state of North Carolina continues to be one of the fastest growing states in the country. However, like the rest of the country, the state's population is aging. Below is a chart of estimated and forecasted population growth (2010 2060) from the NC Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM). The state has grown from almost 9.6 million in 2010 to 11.2 million today (an increase of 16% over 15 years). With a forecast of 12.2 million in 2035, another increase of 9.0% over 10 years. C A R O L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 2 DEMOGR PHY JNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 6 North Carolina Estimates and Forecast 2000 to 2060 15,000,000 10,000,000 ' • ' • 5,000,000 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Source:OSBM Population Projections, 2025 While the population will likely continue to grow, the age distribution of this growth is very important for understanding the impacts on schools throughout the state. As we can see below, while the population is growing, the population aged 0-17 grows at a much slower rate than the population overall. In fact, from 2010 through 2025, the population aged 0-17 grew from 2.28 million to just 2.32 million, or just 1.6%. Forecast growth from 2025 to 2035 brings the 0-17 population up to 2.39 million, or just below 3% for those 10 years. That is substantially lower than population growth overall and helps us to understand the population dynamics occurring throughout the state that impact school enrollments. North Carolina Estimates and Forecast: Population by Age 2000 to 2060 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 PON 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 65&Over ■ 35 to 44 18 to 24 ■ under 5 Years ■ 45 to 64 ■ 25 to 34 5 to 17 Source:OSBM Population Projections, 2025 C A R O L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 3 D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 7 These variations in the age structure of the NC population become even clearer when we look at the share of the population that is of school age (ages 5 through 17). The chart below shows how the share of the population by age group has changed over time and how it is forecasted to change in the future. In 2010, children aged 5 to 17 made up just over 17% of the population of North Carolina; by 2025, this number was just over 15% of the population, and by 2035, OSBM is forecasting that children of school age will make up just over 14% of the population of the state. North Carolina Estimates and Forecast: Population Percent by Age 2000 to 2060 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 ■ 65&Over ■ 35 to 44 18 to 24 ■ Under 5 Years ■ 45 to 64 25 to 34 ■ 5 to 17 Source:OSBM Population Projections, 2025 When evaluating the population estimates and current projections, it is important to recognize that we are currently experiencing demographic uncertainty, which may affect our forecasts moving forward, related to recent changes in net n international migration'. As noted by OSBM, recently, international migration has become a key driver of population growth in the state. Given changes in policy at the federal level, international migration numbers will be down for the foreseeable future. The question becomes, will additional domestic migration make up for the decline, or will this lead to slower growth for the state overall? The chart below shows the data for the state of North Carolina over the past several years. We can see in 2025 the large decline in net international migration. These data only cover the first 6 months of 2025, when changes in international migration were just starting to take place, and likely these numbers declined even more in the back half of 2025 and into 2026. ' https://www.osbm.nc.gov/blog/2026/03/17/immigration-become-sole-driver-us-population-growth C A R O L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 4 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 8 165,958 152.700 136.268 130.954 I ' 11=.55= I. I 2021 2023 1011 ■ Domestic 0 International Source:2025 Vintage Population Eshmates, U.S. Census Bureau Understanding how changes in international migration may be affecting student membership is challenging because we have no data on the nativity (i.e., US-Born/Foreign-Born) of students nor their parents. A potential proxy to look at changes in the foreign-born population, as well as impacts of international migration changes on student membership forecasts is to look at the change in the population of English Language Learners (ELL) in public schools. While this is clearly an imperfect proxy for change in the foreign-born population served by North Carolina public schools, it does have a key benefit: the data lag time is much less than other potential sources, such as the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. The chart below shows the yearly ELL enrollment for the state of North Carolina. English Language Learners (ELLs) The headcount of English Language Learners (ELL) serves as a key indicator for potential shifts in the foreign-born population. ELL headcount in North Carolina has followed an upward trajectory over the last decade, growing from roughly 96,000 students in 2016-17 to nearly 179,000 in 2024-25. While there was a minor dip in enrollment during the 2020-21 school year likely due to pandemic-related disruptions, the 2025-26 school year marked a decline in ELL headcount by 15,513 students from the previous year, representing the largest single-year decline in the last decade. This decline in ELL could be an impact of the recent changes in federal immigration policy. However, the nature and extent of the impact would be clearer as more data is made available. C A R O L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 5 D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 9 Headcount of English Language Learners in North Carolina:2016-17 through 2025-26 178,688 162,778 163,175 146,141 128,060 131,247 124,505 116,357 108,664 95,905 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Data Source Headcount of Limited English Proficient Students, Report to the North Carolina General Assembly,NC DPI Enrollment and ADM In North Carolina public schools, enrollment refers to the count of students registered at a given point in time, while Average Daily Membership (ADM) represents the average number of students enrolled over a defined period, accounting for entries and exits throughout the school year. The Best of Month 1 or 2 ADM is the metric used by the state for funding, budgeting, and planning purposes, and Month 2 ADM serves as the basis for all projections in this report. Statewide enrollment and ADM have been on a slow downward trend over the past decade. This decline sped up slightly over the last year as we can see in the chart below. ADM in month 2 at the state level went from 1,368,531 in School Year 2024-25 to 1,345,074 in School Year 2025-26. This is a decrease of over 23,000 students or just about 1.7%. CAROL I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA _ Demographic 6 DEMOGR _ PHYPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 10 Enrollment vs.ADM by Year: North Carolina 1,600.000 1,400,000 C 7 O U 1,200,000 1,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Year ADM Enrollment Source:NCDPI In fact, only 8 school districts saw increases in month 2 ADM at all, and only one of these (Brunswick County Public Schools) saw an increase of over 100 children — and Brunswick County is the 11th fastest growing county in the United States. The table below shows the top and bottom 5 school districts in terms of gain or loss of ADM as well as both CHCCS and OCS. As we can see, both CHCCS and OCS declined by around 3% year over year. The largest percentage increase in the state was in Washington County Schools with a 2.7% increase. However, that increase is still less than 100 students. The largest percentage declines were seen in Roanoke Rapids and Granville County both losing over 6% of their student population year-over-year. Month 2 ADM Changes,2025-26 vs.2024-25,Selected LEAS NUMERIC CHANGE FROM PERCENTAGE CHANGE RANK 2025-26 2024-25 FROM 2024-25 North Carolina 0 1,345,074 -23,457 -1.7% Washington County Schools 1 1,001 26 2.7% Asheville City Schools 2 3,797 78 2.1% Brunswick County Schools 3 13,669 194 1.4% Haywood County Schools 4 6,333 35 0.6% Alleghany County Schools 5 1,286 7 0.5% Orange County Schools 77 6,716 -192 -2.8% Chapel Hil I-Carrboro City Schools 85 10,758 -341 -3.1% Martin County Schools 111 2,416 -131 -5.1% Jones County Schools 112 903 -51 -5.3% Elkin City Schools 113 1,156 -70 -5.7% Roanoke Rapids City Schools 114 2,439 -159 -6.1% Granville County Schools 115 5,860 -413 -6.6% *Source:Month 2 ADM by LEA,North Carolina Public Schools Statistical Profile,NC DPI C A R O L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 7 D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 11 Births and Birth to Kindergarten Ratios Live births in North Carolina have recovered from the pandemic low and reached about 121,013 in 2024, up from 116,755 in 2020. Although this represents a modest rebound, births remain below the peak levels observed in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Historical Live Births in North Carolina 150,000 1204247.0 302 120 826 � 121.013 100,000 50,000 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Source;NC Birth Records;NC State Center(or Health Statistics;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast A comparison of kindergarten ADM (Month 2) with five-year lagged births for North Carolina shows a clear downward shift in the kindergarten-to-birth ratio over the period. Although births five years earlier remain relatively high through 2020, kindergarten enrollment is consistently lower and the ratio falls from about 0.90 in 2016 to roughly 0.78 by 2026, indicating fewer children entering kindergarten per birth cohort. The largest gap appears around 2021, when the ratio dips to about 0.75, reflecting pandemic-related disruptions to births and/or enrollment behavior. C A R O L I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA _ Demographic 8 DEMOGR _ PHYlPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 12 North Carolina:Kindergarten-to-Birth Ratio 150,000 .9 100,000 .86 .87 .83 .83 .81 .75 50,000 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 Babies born 5 years earlier Kindergarten Source:Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2016-2026;NC Birth Records,NC State Center for Health Statistics Market Share Trends Public Schools in North Carolina have experienced a consistent decline in market share, falling from 81% in 2017-18 to 74% in 2024-25. This shift coincides with the sustained increase in market share held by charter schools, which rose steadily from 6% to 9% over the same period. This significant growth in charter enrollment is strongly linked to state regulatory changes, particularly the lifting of the 100-school cap in 2011, which created an environment for their expansion and enhanced educational choice. Home Schools share saw a surge during the 2020-21 pandemic year, peaking at 10% before stabilizing around 9%. Private Schools also showed steady growth, from 6% in 2017-18 to reaching 8% by 2024-25, indicating a shifting market share trend. C A R O L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 9 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 13 North Carolina Market share by School Type: 2017-18 through 2024-25 100% 6� 6® 6 6N 0% 7.0% 7.0% 8.0% 75% 50% 77.0% I' I 25% 0% 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 Home Schools 0 Private Schools 0 Charter Schools 0 Public Schools Source:Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2018-2025;NC DPI;NC DOA Orange County Changes in Population, Enrollment, and ADM From those trends at the state level, we can start looking at county level trends. It is important to look at these trends because there are some datasets e.g. private school and home school student populations) that are not released at the school district level, but are released at the county level. Next, we turn to these trends before moving into a discussion of a few definitions as well as our general methodology for developing ADM forecasts. Population Changes The figure below shows the historic, as well as projected growth for Orange County from the 2025-vintage population projections released by the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM). As we can see, growth between 2025 (latest available estimates), and 2060 continues to be modest, moving from over 154,000 residents in 2025 to over 184,000 residents in 2060. At the end of the projection period for this study -- the 2035-36 school year-- the population is projected to be approximately 164,000 in Orange County. C A R 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 10 DEMOGR _ PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 14 Orange County Estimates and Forecast 2010 to 2060 200,000 184,202 150,000 ;� 100,000 50,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Source:NC OSBM Population Projections;vintage 2025 The 2025-vintage projections are lower than those released last year (the 2024-vintage projections), which estimated Orange County's population would reach approximately 205,000 residents by 2060—about 20,000 people, or 10 percent, higher than the current projections (see figure below). The downward revision in the 2025 vintage reflects the incorporation of recent federal immigration policy changes. Recent OSBM analysis reports that North Carolina is expected to begin natural decrease (i.e. more deaths than births) in 2033, and without a substantial increase in fertility or life expectancy, future population growth will be driven solely by domestic and international migration.2 Orange County Population Projections:Vintage Comparison 2020-2060 by Vintage Year 250,000 205,290 200,000 .a ` 184,202 150,000 134,010 100,000 50,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Vintage + 2024 2025 Source:NC OSBM Population Projections;vintage 2024 and 2025 2 North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management,"Immigration to Become Sole Driver of U.S.Population Growth,"March 12,2026. CAR 0 L I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA Demographic 11 DEMOGR PHY � lPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 15 OSBM also reported that between 2020 and 2024, net migration to Orange County increased by 4,168 people, while natural increase was 881. Although separate international and domestic migration estimates are not available at the county level, the U.S. Census Bureau's 2025 population estimates show a recent decline in net migration at both the state and national levels, driven largely by reduced international migration (see figure below). It is reasonable to expect these statewide migration trends to be reflected in Orange County's future migration patterns as well. While the overall population is still increasing, the age profile of that growth is changing. When we look at the age distribution of population growth, we see that much of it occurs in the retirement-age population. The figure below shows the age distribution of Orange County. According to OSBM projections, as the county grows, it is also getting older: the median age increases from 38 years in 2025 to 43 years in 2060. This aging pattern is driven in part by in- migration of older adults and slower growth in younger cohorts. However, the projected increase in median age in Orange County is smaller than in counties such as Wake, Brunswick, and Mecklenburg, where the median age is expected to rise by approximately six years between 2025 and 2060. Orange County Estimates and Forecast: Population by Age 2010 to 2060 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 ■ 65&Over ■ 35 to 44 ■ 18 to 24 ■ Under 5 years Age Group ■ 45 to 64 ■ 25 to 34 ■ 5 to 17 Source:NC OSBM Population Projections;vintage 2025 In the chart above, we see that most of the recent and projected growth is concentrated in the 65-and-over age group, followed by the 45-64 age group. In the 65-and-over category, OSBM estimates 27,885 people in 2025, increasing to 36,328 in 2036 and 42,833 by 2060. Similarly, the 45-64 age group is projected to add 8,389 people between 2025 and 2036. The important thing to note, however, is that the school age population (5-17 years age group) is projected CAR 0 L I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA _ Demographic 12 DEMOGR PHY � lPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 16 to decline till 2038 and then grow marginally till 2060. OSBM estimates that there were 18,369 people ages 5-17 in Orange county in 2025; by 2036, this is forecast to decline to 17,766, or about 603 fewer school-age residents. The figure below shows this change in proportion by age even more starkly. As we can see, by 2036 nearly 45% of the population and by 2060 nearly 50% of the population of Orange county will be over the age of 45 and school age population will comprise only 10% of the county population which is a decline of 1 percentage point from 2025. Orange County Estimates and Forecast: Population Percent by Age 2010 to 2060 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 ■ 65&Over ■ 35 to 44 ■ 18 to 24 ■ Under 5 years Age Group ■ 45 to 64 ■ 25 to 34 ■ 5 to 17 Source:NC OSBM Population Projections;vintage 2025 Enrollment and ADM Orange County's school age population (5-17 years), enrollment, and Month 2 ADM followed each other closely through 2019, but both declined after 2020. ADM and Enrollment shown here are the combined totals for OCS and CHCCS, and both follow the county under-18 population downward through 2025, converging in the post-pandemic period. CAR 0 L I N A II T CAROLINA Demographic 13 DEMOGR PHY JNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 17 Orange County:ADM (M2), Enrollment, and 5-17 yrs Population (2017-2025) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -a- ADM Enrollment -@- Pop:5-17 yrs Source:NC OSBM Population Projections Vintage 2025,NC DPI Note:ADM and Enrollment for CHCCS and OCS combined Enrollment versus ADM Throughout the rest of this report, we will be focused on forecasting ADM instead of enrollment. It is important that we revisit and understand the differences between these, and why we forecast ADM. First, let's start with some definitions: Enrollment: The number of students enrolled, including those who are in violation of the "I 0-day rule." Violations: The number of students who currently have at least 10 consecutive unexcused absences. Average Daily Membership (ADM): The number of membership days for all students not in attendance violation, divided by the number of days in the school month. This is the number used by NCDPI as the official budget number. We use ADM, as our forecast variable because it is the official measure used by NCDPI for budget purposes. NCDPI also argues that it is the most accurate way to account for the number of students in a school or district. As we can see below, the difference between enrollment and ADM has varied over time slightly, but they also trend in the same directions. CAR 0 L I N A II T CAROLINA Demographic 14 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 18 Enrollment vs. ADM by Year: North Carolina 1,600,000 1,400,000 O U 1,200,000 1,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Year ADM Enrollment Source: NCDPI How we Forecast Our goal is always to create the best membership (ADM) forecast possible given the evidence provided. This means merging several specific things to come to the best conclusion possible. As we always note, this does not mean that the forecast is going to tell us, to the exact student, what ADM is going to be in 2035. However, these are very useful tools if they are contextualized, tested, and used strategically in combination with other diagnostic and planning tools. Further, they become much more useful if they are updated on a regular cadence with new information. We always begin our forecasting process — after collecting information, data, and doing a lot of quality checking — by running a baseline model. This baseline model is always based on a Grade Progression Ratio or Cohort Survival Method (these are just two different names for the same thing). At its simplest, a Grade Progression Ratio (GPR) method simply looks at the number of kids who were in a grade last year and compares them to how many kids are in the next grade this year. So, if we had 100 first graders last year, and 103 second graders this year we would have a second grade GPR of 1.03. In our baseline model, we do this for each grade and for each school in a district, ensuring to build correct progressions between elementary, middle, and high schools. There is one special case when it comes to developing a GPR-based model, and that is Kindergarten. Traditionally, Kindergarten is forecast using a ratio of births 5 years prior to Kindergarteners in the current year. Here, the ratio also CAR 0 L I N A II T CAROLINA � Demographic 15 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 19 has a similar meaning: For all Kindergarten to birth ratios over 1.0 we know that more new people with children have moved in between having their kids and age 5 than those that have moved out. Put more simply, places with a Kindergarten to birth ratio over 1.0 are attracting new residents with young children who are then enrolled in the school system. A ratio under 1.0 is just the opposite: people are having children and then leaving before enrolling their children in public school (or are choosing other schooling options). When we have historical GPRs calculated we are able to forecast enrollment. We begin by creating a forecast of GPRs. Many simply either use the most recent year's GPR, or some form of weighted average of the last several years, and then hold each of these GPRs (by school and by grade) constant for the remainder of the forecast period. This works well when there isn't a trend to the GPRs—that is, when they are not increasing or decreasing. When they are, we are much more likely to use time series forecasting methods to allow these values to vary throughout the forecast period. What we choose is entirely dependent on which model best fits the local context. Once we have final GPRs we are able to apply these data to current births and enrollment creating a baseline enrollment forecast. However, while GPR models are great when we have historical trends that are very likely to continue into the future, they can break down when things change. In enrollment forecasting, one of the mostly likely ways that they will break down is through residential development that changes historical patterns. Forecasting Development Whenever we are building a forecast, we always collect data on developments to ensure that there will not be new pressures on areas that are not already experiencing it. These data are usually obtained from a mixture of county and municipal planning or GIS departments. Once we receive these data, we compare the developments to what we are seeing in the baseline forecast and GPR data. Are we seeing new growth that isn't similar to development or migration trends in the past? How different are they? Once we decide that we need to incorporate development information into our forecast, we go through a multi-step process to ensure that we are incorporating it in a way that does not double-count students. It is important to note the goal of our forecasting process here. We are not trying to forecast the total number of students who might live in a particular new development, we are trying to forecast the number of net new students within a particular attendance zone that the development might bring3. This requires us to go through multiple steps in incorporating developments into our model: 1. We begin by looking at GRPs and birth-to-kindergarten ratios for the attendance zone. Are we already seeing ratios over 1? If so, some in-migration is already occurring, so we need to adjust to make sure we don't double- count students. 3 This is different from the goals of reports such as those from SAPFOTAC where we are looking at the potential total impact of each development instead of the net impact as we are. (e.g., https://www.orangecountync.gov/DocumentCenterNiew/31319/20hat 25-SAPFOTAC-Annual-Report---Certified-060325). CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA � Demographic 16 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 20 2. We need to understand the likelihood a development actually gets built. This depends on the phase of development, and is based on local knowledge and our experience throughout the country doing this work. Once units are under construction we assume a 100% likelihood of delivery of units. 3. Next, we determine when units will be delivered, and over how many years. 4. Next, we know that not all units are occupied at all times, so we apply occupancy rates to each unit. 5. Next, we apply yield by age groups to each of the units to match elementary, middle, and high school ages. These yields are based on our understanding of the type of units being built and historical patterns of yield from decennial census and local development data. 6. Finally, we apply market share adjustments to these net new students, as we know not all of them will end up in public schools. Each of these steps requires both data and judgement. We work to actually go out to each development and understand what is happening on the ground (see the picture below as an examples), and also go through marketing materials and county or municipal documents to understand the likely target demographics and types of units being built— beyond just single-family, multi-family, and the like. An Example of Ground Truthing Development in Chapel Hill k —�" sue. = -k .a _..'�• r Source: Carolina Demography Once we have gone through each of these steps, we are able to model the impact of these developments in terms of net new students that should be added to the baseline forecast for each year. In the next section, we turn to the specific results for both Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS) and Orange County Schools (OCS) CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 17 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 21 Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools is among a growing number of North Carolina school districts confronting rapid and significant shifts in student membership. District administration and leadership are actively engaged in strategic planning efforts to chart the best path forward — balancing the needs of students and families against evolving budget realities. An accurate, comprehensive student membership forecast is one important tool in that process, providing the data foundation upon which sound planning and policy decisions can be built. Population Estimates and Births for CHCCS The school-age population (5-17 years)within the CHCCS district, as estimated by the Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE), has shown a decline following the COVID-19 pandemic. This demographic group was estimated at approximately 12,678 in 2021, and then declined to 12,309 by 2024 (the latest year for which data is available). Concurrently, the district's enrollment capture rate has also decreased. In 2024, approximately 91% of the 5-17-year- olds residing in the CHCCS district attend CHCCS schools. This is a reduction from the 94% observed during both the pandemic and pre-pandemic periods, suggesting either a smaller proportion of eligible resident students are enrolling in the district or an increase in families with school-age kids migrating to the district during this period. Population between 5-17 years for CHCCS district 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Source:US Census Bureau,Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates(SAIPE),2015-25 CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 18 DEMOGR PHY JNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 22 Births Lower birth rates during the COVID years (2020-2021) are expected to shrink incoming kindergarten cohorts beginning around 2025-26 and produce cascading declines through subsequent grades, because fewer births reduce the underlying pool of children reaching school age five years later. CHCCS Births: Actual and Projections (2016-2036) 1,000 750 661 547 5y6 F ♦ 520 500 250 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 Source:NC Birth Records;NC State Center for Health Statistics;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)tFrecast The birth-to-kindergarten ratio (see chart below) measures the number of students entering CHCCS kindergarten divided by the number of births in Chapel Hill and Carrboro five years earlier. In 2015-16 this ratio was 1.18, which means the kindergarten cohort was 118 percent of the births from 2010-11. A ratio above 1.0 indicates that additional children are coming into the district before kindergarten, which can reflect higher net in-migration of families with young children or greater propensity for resident families to enroll their children in CHCCS. CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 19 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 23 CHCCS:Kindergarten-to-Birth Ratio 1 ,000 1.18 1.24 1.31 1.24 1.21 750 1.06 1.18 1.02 1.21 1.02 1.08 500 250 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ■ Babies born 5 years earlier Kindergarten Source:Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2016-2026;NC Birth Records,NC State Center for Health Statistics Migration As depicted in the chart below, the ELL headcount reported by CHCCS saw a decline to 1,413 in the current school year, down from 1,621 in the previous school year. This marks the first observed post-pandemic decrease in ELL headcounts, a trend that may reflect anticipated impacts from changes in federal immigration policy. While international migration sharply decreased during the pandemic due to travel restrictions and limited job availability, it subsequently rebounded. Headcount of English Language Learners: 2016-17 through 2025-26 1,621 1,415 1,454 1,496 1,462 1,413 1,314 1,277 1,311 1,349 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Data Source:Headcount of Limited English Proficient Students, Report to the North Carolina General Assembly,NC DPI C A R O L I N A �I T CAROLINA i Demographic 20 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 24 Current ADM Trends Next, we review the historical Average Daily Membership (ADM) trends, which reveal that the district has experienced a substantial decline in student membership over the past decade. Beginning at 12,004 in 2015-16 (based on PMR M2)ADM saw a modest increase to a peak of 12,303 in 2020. However, a consistent decline has followed this peak, with ADM falling to 10,758 in the current school year. This represents a loss of approximately 1,500 students since 2020, indicating that CHCCS student membership has not yet rebounded to its pre-pandemic levels. CHCCS: K-12 ADM Historical Trend 12,500 12,004 12,303 10,158 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Source:CHCCS When examining ADM trends by grade level, a significant loss in student membership is observed in the Elementary Schools. Student membership in Elementary Schools declined from 5,501 students in 2015-16 to 4,294 students in the current school year, representing a loss of approximately 1,207 students over the decade. While Middle and High Schools have followed this downward trend, the magnitude of their declines has been less severe. Middle Schools reported a loss of 259 students, and High Schools saw a reduction of 220 students in their membership over the same ten-year period. CAR 0 L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 21 D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 25 CHCCS Historical ADM by Level: 2015-16 to 2025-26 Level 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Elementary Schools 5,501 5,555 5,508 5,472 5,349 4,926 4,716 4,641 4,552 4,510 4,294 Middle Schools 2,838 2,833 2,838 2,930 3,032 2,912 2,799 2,788 2,699 2,655 2,579 High Schools 3,665 3,738 3,910 3,903 3,922 3,926 3,896 3,923 3,949 3,934 3,885 Total 12,004 12,126 12,256 12,305 12,303 11,764 11,411 11,352 11,200 11,099 10,758 Source:CHCCS At the school level, most Elementary Schools experienced a decline in membership between 2015-16 and 2025-26. Morris Grove Elementary reported the most significant loss (-186 students). When compared to the 2024-25 ADM, Northside Elementary and Rashkis Elementary both experienced sharp year-over-year declines of nearly 15%. McDougle Middle and Phillips Middle saw the highest year-over-year increases in ADM among middle schools. For High Schools, all three reported a decline in ADM compared to the previous school year. However, when comparing current figures to 2015-16, all high schools showed an overall increase in membership with Chapel Hill High reporting an increase of 136 students during this period. C A R O L I N A �I T JNC CAROLINA Demographic 22 DEMOGR _ PHY POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 26 CHCCS ADM Trends by School:2015-16 to 2025-26 School Name 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Carrboro Elementary 502 498 488 489 513 476 493 483 488 483 462 Ephesus Elementary 435 401 396 442 387 346 340 354 354 357 343 Estes Hills Elementary 482 496 490 472 430 387 350 331 340 325 324 FPG Elementary 532 581 600 613 588 563 507 510 501 510 499 Glenwood Elementary 449 481 508 489 456 440 421 429 409 387 394 McDougle Elementary 504 512 526 543 551 496 459 474 465 481 469 Morris Grove Elementary 557 544 539 553 543 489 459 422 396 379 371 Northside Elementary 485 486 454 444 452 404 379 371 365 384 335 Rashkis Elementary 521 501 471 454 485 449 416 419 423 435 367 Scroggs Elementary 509 506 493 471 423 407 392 380 384 377 366 Seawell Elementary 525 549 543 502 521 469 500 468 427 392 364 Culbreth Middle 712 712 692 733 798 734 664 656 667 633 575 McDougle Middle 692 672 656 681 686 748 755 753 705 660 698 Phillips Middle 638 652 673 655 742 696 663 610 578 599 615 Smith Middle 796 797 817 861 806 734 717 769 749 763 691 Carrboro High 813 821 853 868 863 847 838 862 876 890 862 Chapel Hill High 1,458 1,516 1,560 1,521 1,517 1,525 1,503 1,593 1,637 1,601 1,594 East Chapel Hill High 1,361 1,372 1,464 1,487 1,516 1,537 1,479 1,443 1,411 1,418 1,404 Phoenix Academy High 33 29 33 27 26 17 76 25 25 25 25 Total 12,004 12,126 12,256 12,305 12,303 11,764 11,411 11,352 11,200 11,099 10,758 Source:CHCCS Market Share Trends Between 2020-21 and 2024-25 the CHCCS market share-the percentage of K-12 enrollments occurring at CHCCS- has increased by 7 percentage points, which is also a factor of post-COVID rebound. However, the new law expanding private school vouchers (Opportunity Scholarship Program) could put private school enrollments on a higher growth trajectory. If the increased utilization of private school options is accompanied by growth in charter schools, CHCCS market share may decline. The magnitude of private school enrollments will remain unknown till the CAR 0 L I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA _ Demographic 23 DEMOGR PHY � lPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 27 2025-26 data is released from the Division of Non-Public Education at the NC Department of Administration. Additionally, the full impact of the new law will be realized only after the largest increases in funding occur in the 2026- 27 School Year. Historical precedent suggests that private school enrollment shifts are supply-constrained. While early funding increases primarily subsidize the existing private school student population, enrollment growth is contingent upon the capacity of private schools in and around the County. Further, long-term private school enrollment growth will be contingent upon the expansion of private school capacity in and around the county. We are continuing to assess the incoming data on private school enrollment trends to determine if additional changes need to be made in the forecast in the future. Market share by School Type: 2021-22 through 2024-25 100% = = 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 Home Schools Private Schools 0 Charter Schools CHCCS Source.CHCCS;NC DPI;NC DOA Developments One of the key drivers of the growth in enrollments in any school district is the new housing developments that are being built throughout the region. Currently, there are 42 non-age restricted residential and mixed-use developments throughout the Chapel-Hill and Carrboro area. These developments have approximately 6,825 units that are either in the pipeline or are being constructed. Out of these 6,825 units, approximately 172 units are age restricted and the rest 6653 are non-age restricted. Below is a table of these 42 developments with their total units as of March 2026. CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 24 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 28 Number of Units by Development Total Units Complete Project Name Project Status Units (Estimate) 710 N Estes Townhomes Construction 107 0 Aura Blue Hill Construction 313 0 Aura Booth Park(f.k.a Aura Chapel Hill) Construction 418 309 Columbia St Annex Construction 59 59 Gateway-1 Construction 314 0 Homestead Gardens Construction 92 0 Homestead Road Tri-Point PH 1 Construction 63 63 Jade Creek Construction 72 0 Millennium Chapel Hill/University Inn Construction 274 274 Newbury-1 Construction 12 0 Newbury-2 Construction 24 0 Park Apartments Phase II Construction 259 259 PEACH Apartments Construction 10 0 South Creek Phase 1 Construction 92 92 South Creek Phase 2 Construction 266 0 Trinity Court Construction 14 14 Weaver's Grove-1 Construction 117 So 1701 North Uses Entitled 6 0 701 MILK Jr Blvd Residential Entitled 182 0 Aura South Elliott Entitled 335 0 Carraway Residential Phase III Entitled 169 0 Carraway Village Entitled 50 0 Gateway-2 Entitled 72 0 Glen Lennox Entitled 528 0 Hillside Trace(prey.MILK Affordable Entitled 181 0 Housing) Link Apartments Rosemary Entitled 150 0 South Creek Entitled 454 0 St Paul Village Entitled 347 0 University Place Entitled 247 0 Weaver's Grove-2 Entitled 35 0 623 MILK Cottages Final Plans Review 5 0 Grand Alexander Subdivision Final Plans Review 8 0 Homestead Road Tri-Point PH 2 Final Plans Review 55 0 Jay St Affordable Housing Final Plans Review 48 0 Residence Inn Hotel and Summit Place Final Plans Review 52 0 Townhomes 860 Weaver Dairy Road Formal Application Review 710 0 Holy Trinity Anglican Church Formal Application Review 6 0 Lightbridge Formal Application Review 5 0 Tarheel Lodging Phase II Formal Application Review 283 0 271 Erwin Concept Plan Complete 20 0 Flintrock Knoll Concept Plan Complete 159 0 The Reserve at Blue Hill Waiting for Formal Development Application 212 0 Submittal Source.Chapel Hill and Carrboro Municipalifies C A R O L I N A �I T �T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 25 D E M O G R _ P H Y lJl �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 29 The map below shows planned and in-progress developments across Orange County. For CHCCS forecasts we account for projects in Chapel Hill and Carrboro; for OCS forecasts we include developments in Hillsborough, Mebane, and other parts of the county. Developments in Orange County: March 2026 r b M U Off? r b lod i� Total Units 6 05-181 0 181-358 358-534 534-710 Source:Orange County;Chapel Hill-Carrboro;Hillsborough;Mebane municipalities Data received from the Chapel Hill and Carrboro municipalities shows that, of the 42 development projects included in the CHCCS ADM forecast, project statuses vary (Under-construction, Final Plans Review, Entitled, Formal Application Review, Concept Plan Complete, Waiting for Formal Development Application Submittal). However, when our staff ground-truthed these developments, we found some reported statuses differed from on-the-ground conditions: some CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 26 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 30 projects listed as under construction were nearly complete with only finishing work remaining, while others were still empty lots. We therefore modified project statuses based on survey inputs. To estimate student yield from these 42 developments, we first mapped them with Orange County parcel data. In case a development was spread across multiple parcels, the units from the development were allocated to the parcels based on the area. Those parcels were then joined to school attendance zones to determine which elementary, middle, and high schools would receive the new students from these developments. For developments that are not yet fully constructed, we assign a probability that units will be built and occupied during the forecast period based on project status and field verification. Projects under construction that appear essentially complete in the field receive the highest probabilities (typically 95-100%). Other status-based probabilities are applied as follows: Waiting for Formal Development Application Submittal — 30%; Concept Plan Complete — 40%; Formal Application Review — 60%; Entitled — 75%; Final Plans Review — 85%. Where site visits indicate units are already occupied, we remove those units from the forecast so they are not double-counted in the baseline ADM. After estimating the number of units likely to be completed for each development project, we estimate occupied units using tract-level occupancy rates from the 2020 Census. These occupancy rates account for the share of housing units that are typically occupied versus vacant or used for short-term rental in each tract. Since new developments do not reach full occupancy in a single year, we apply a project-specific occupancy ramp schedule to spread occupied units across forecast years. A table of this occupancy ramp-up schedule for CHCCS developments is provided below: Occupancy Timeline for Development Projects in CHCCS district Complete/Near- Under- Final Plans Formal Application Concept Plan Waiting for Formal Development Years Completion Contruction Review Entitled Review Complete Application Submittal 2026 80% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2027 100% 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2028 100% 50% 30% 20% 0% 0% 0% 2029 100% 80% 50% 50% 30% 0% 0% 2030 100% 100% 80% 80% 50% 20% 10% 2031 100% 100% 100% 100% 80% 50% 30% 2032 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 80% 90% 2033 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2034 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2035 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2036 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source:CHCCS;Chapel Hill-Carrboro Municipalities CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 27 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER � Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 31 Occupied units by forecast year are converted to student yield using tract-level age-group occupancy rates (the share of households with children in each age band). The percentage of households with children ages 5-10 years is applied to estimate elementary students from the new development units, ages 11-13 years for middle school, and ages 14-17 years for high school. Student estimates are assigned to schools by attendance zone and summed across projects to produce annual, school-level student yields. Since the GPR-based baseline model already incorporates some development-related enrollment increases, we adjust the student yields to ensure we are not double-counting student yields from new developments. A table showing the projected five-year and ten-year student yield from new developments for all CHCCS schools is provided below. CHCCS: 5-Yr and 10-Yr Student Yield from Developments by Schools 2030-31 and 2035-36 School Name 2031 2036 Carrboro Elementary 0 0 Carrboro High 17 28 Chapel Hill High 26 50 Culbreth Middle 13 25 East Chapel Hill High 67 114 Ephesus Elementary 32 49 Estes Hills Elementary 37 58 FPG Elementary 0 0 Glenwood Elementary 5 12 McDougle Elementary 0 0 McDougle Middle 5 7 Morris Grove Elementary 19 42 Northside Elementary 5 11 Phillips Middle 43 62 Phoenix Academy High 0 0 Rashkis Elementary 7 16 Scroggs Elementary 19 33 Seawell Elementary 12 18 Smith Middle 17 41 Total 324 566 Source:Chapel Hill-Corrboro municipalities;Demographic Anolytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast Baseline Forecast CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 28 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER � Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 32 Our baseline forecast projects a decline in CHCCS student membership over the coming decade. From 10,758 in the current school year, Average Daily Membership (ADM) is expected to fall to 9,759 within the next five years, followed by a further reduction to 9,122 by the end of the forecast period in 2035-26. This translates to an approximate loss of 1,000 students over the initial five-year period, with an additional decline of 637 students projected between 2030-31 and 2035-26. The forecast anticipates an overall reduction of 1,637 students in CHCCS ADM throughout the entire forecast period. CHCCS: K-12 ADM Baseline Forecast 12,500 12,004 758 10,000 + r -9a59 ~ .r A122 7,500 5,000 2,500 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 Source:CHCCS;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast The baseline model projects a significant decline in student membership across all grade levels by the end of the forecast period (2035-36). Elementary schools are expected to see a reduction of approximately 349 students, middle schools a decline of 414 students, and high schools the largest decrease, with about 870 students during our forecast period. In the next five years (between the current 2025-26 school year and 2030-31), ADM declines are anticipated to be 254 students for elementary schools, 286 students for middle schools, and 459 students for high schools. CHCCS ADM Baseline Forecast by Level:2015-16 to 2035-36 Level 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Elementary 5,501 5,555 5,508 5,472 5,349 4,926 4,716 4,641 4,552 4,510 4,294 4,210 4,172 4,077 4,082 4,040 4,025 4,007 3,984 3,959 3,944 Schools Middle Schools 2,838 2,833 2,838 2,930 3,032 2,912 2,799 2,788 2,699 2,655 2,579 2,542 2,462 2,423 2,323 2,293 2,187 2,204 2,185 2,182 2,164 High Schools 3,665 3,738 3,910 3,903 3,922 3,926 3,896 3,923 3,949 3,934 3,885 3,758 3,661 3,625 3,496 3,426 3,397 3,233 3,164 3,114 3,013 Total 12,004 12,126 12,256 12,305 12,303 11,764 11,411 11,352 11,200 11,099 10,758 10,510 10,296 10,125 9,901 9,759 9,608 9,443 9,333 9.256 9,122 Source.CHCCS;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast CAR 0 L I N A Il�T JNC CAROLINA A Demographic 29 DEMOGR PHY POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 33 Forecast with Development Yield In comparison to the baseline model, when adjusted for development yield we forecast ADM to decline over the forecast period from 10,758 students in the current school year to 9,688 by the end of the forecast period (2035-36). This translates to a decline of 1,070 students between the forecast period which is 566 fewer than the decline of 1,637 students projected by the baseline mode. In the next school year, development adjusted ADM expected to fall to 10,619 students. As we can see from the figure below, ADM started declining since COVID and will continue to decline throughout the forecast period. CHCCS: K-12 ADM Development Adjusted Forecast 12,500 12.004 758 10,000 10�' 084 7,500 5,000 2,500 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 Source:CHCCS;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast The table below gives an overview of grade level projections for the next 10 years. CHCCS Development Adjusted ADM Forecasts by Level:2015-16 to 2025-26 Level 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Elementary 5,501 5,555 5,508 5,472 5,349 4,926 4,716 4,641 4,552 4,510 4,294 4,255 4,232 4,161 4,191 4,176 4,188 4,190 4,190 4,181 4,183 Schools Middle Schools 2,838 2,833 2,838 2,930 3,032 2,912 2,799 2,788 2,699 2,655 2,579 2,569 2,496 2,472 2,386 2,371 2,280 2,309 2,302 2,308 2,299 High 3,665 3,738 3,910 3,903 3,922 3,926 3,896 3,923 3,949 3,934 3,885 3,795 3,710 3,693 3,584 3,536 3,529 3,382 3,331 3,294 3,206 Schools Total 12,004 12,126 12,256 12,305 12,303 11,764 11,411 11,352 11,200 11,099 10,758 10,619 10,438 10,326 10,161 10,084 9,997 9,882 9,823 9,783 9,688 Source:CHCCS;Demographic Ana[ytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast CAR 0 L I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA Demographic 30 DEMOGR PHY � lPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 34 The forecast projects Elementary School ADM to decline from 4,294 students in the current school year to 4,191 within the next five years, marking a decrease of approximately 100 students. A further reduction to 4,183 is projected by the end of the forecast period (2035-36), resulting in an overall projected decline of about 111 students in Elementary School ADM throughout the decade. CHCCS Elementary School ADM: 2015-16 to 2035-36 6,000 5,501 4,294 !176 4,183 4,000 2,000 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 Source:Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2016-2026,Demographic AnaV cs Advisors(DAA)Forecast For Middle Schools, ADM is expected to fall from 2,579 in the current school year (2025-26) to 2,371 over the next five years, marking a decrease of 208 students. This trend continues with a further reduction to 2,299 by the end of the forecast period (2035-36), resulting in a total projected decline of 280 students for middle schools throughout the decade. CHCCS Middle School ADM: 2015-16 to 2035-36 4,000 3,000 2,111 579 r �• 2,371 y 2,299 2,000 1,000 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 Source:Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2016-2026,Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast C A R O L I N A ��T �T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 31 D E M O G R _ P H Y l.Jl �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 35 Similarly, High Schools are projected to see their ADM decrease from 3,885 in the current school year to 3,536 over the next five years, a loss of 349 students. By the end of the forecast period in 2035-36, high school ADM is anticipated to reach 3,206, culminating in an overall projected decline of 679 students for high schools across the decade. CHCCS High School ADM: 2015-16 to 2035-36 4,000 3 sss 3,66 _�,536 �•r3,206 3,000 • 2,000 1,000 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 Source_Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2016-2026,Demographic AnaVics Advisors(DAA)Forecast Overall school district ADM is declining, however, some schools are declining more than others. The following table provides the enrollment for select years and the change in enrollment percentage between the current school year 2025-26 through 2035-36. CAR 0 L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 32 D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 36 ADM: 2025-26 Through 2035-36 by School, Colored by Year-Over-Year%Change School 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Carrboro Elementary 462 444 430 413 409 398 395 395 392 390 388 Ephesus Elementary 343 387 394 405 417 421 420 422 422 423 Estes Hills Elementary 324 362 376 375 389 397 398 400 401 403 FPG Elementary 499 491 505 503 499 498 496 495 492 489 487 Glenwood Elementary 394 387 385 384 396 = 421 420 419 418 418 McDougle Elementary 469 487 495 491 510 511 505 501 499 496 495 Morris Grove Elementary 371 364 357 346 362 356 359 362 366 368 371 Northside Elementary 313 306 298 291 290 289 289 288 289 Rashkis Elementary 321 253 253 254 255 256 Scroggs Elementary 366 = 333 = 311 307 309 312 315 314 314 Seawell Elementary 354 344 335 343 336 341 344 343 341 340 Culbreth Middle 586 587 596 = 548 531 540 538 536 534 McDougle Middle 668 652 = 606 603 = 577 571 572 568 Phillips Middle 615 619 = 568 570 573 550 555 555 560 558 Smith Middle 695 678 694 = 647 626 638 638 639 639 Carrboro High 862 = 775 758 733 738 726 694 682 674 656 Chapel Hill High 1,594 1,607 1,569 1,571 1,525 1,480 1,483 1,419 1,396 1,377 1,335 East Chapel Hill High 1,404 1,370 1,341 1,338 1,301 1,293 1,294 1,244 1,228 1,218 1,190 Phoenix Academy High 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Total 10,758 10,619 10,438 10,326 10,161 10,084 9,997 9,882 9,823 9,783 9,688 Month 2 ADM Principal's Monthly Report;OCS;NC DPI;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast Decline5%or Greater 2.5%-4.99%Decline 0%-2.49%Decline 0%-2.49%Growth 2.5%-4.99%Growth 5%or Greater Growth As the table above shows, most schools decline in the next school year, but the decline is the sharpest in Rashkis Elementary, Seawell Elementary, Northside Elementary, Culbreth Middle, and Smith Middle. All three high schools (Carrboro High, Chapel Hill High, and East Chapel Hill High)are on a declining trajectory after 2031-32. As stated above, these declines are despite taking into consideration the student yields from new developments around Chapel-Hill and Carrboro area. In the table below, we have shown the student yield coming from development projects that impact Ephesus Elementary. This school is projected to gain about 49 students throughout the forecast period from the various developments, with Weaver's Grove-1 contributing 12 students and Park Apartments Phase I adding 10 students. Detailed tables on development impact of various projects by Elementary, Middle, and High Schools is provided in Appendix B. CAR 0 L I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA _ Demographic 33 DEMOGR PHY � lPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 37 Development Impact: Ephesus Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Weaver's Grove-1 117 50 2027 12 Park Apartments Phase 11 259 259 2027 10 Aura Blue Hill 313 0 2027 8 Gateway-1 314 0 2028 6 Gateway-2 72 0 2029 4 Tarheel Lodging Phase 11 283 0 2029 4 Weaver's Grove-2 35 0 2029 2 The Reserve at Blue Hill 212 0 2030 1 Residence Inn Hotel and Summit Place Townhomes 52 0 2028 1 Millennium Chapel Hill/University Inn 274 274 2027 0 Total 1,931 583 — 49 Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. Forecast with Facilities Utilization In the maps below we see the yearly growth by schools from a capacity utilization perspective. The optimal percentage of capacity depends on the growth profile of the district. The heatmaps presented below allow us to indicate if a school might be reaching capacity issues or remain underutilized using the following stop-light warning system: • Orange= Schools above 100% capacity • Green Schools between 85%-100% capacity • Yellow = Schools with 75-85% capacity • Red = Schools below 75% capacity CAR 0 L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 34 D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 38 Percent Capacity by School Level 2025-2026 through 2035-2036 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2032- 2033- 2034- 2035- Level 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Elementary 76% 75% 75% Schools Middle Schools 84% 81% 81% 77% 78% 78% 78% 78% High Schools 90' 84% 83% 81% Source:CHCCS;NC DPI;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast The heatmap above presents the projected capacity utilization for each school level across the district, spanning the forecast period from the 2025-26 school year through 2035-36. In the current school year (2025-26), only High Schools are projected to be operating at over 95% capacity which declines significantly, dropping to approximately 80% by the end of the forecast period in 2035-36. Elementary Schools district-wide are currently only 75% utilized but this is projected to decline further to 74% from 2028-29 onwards, remaining at this level till the end of the forecast period. Middle Schools are currently at 88% capacity, but this is expected to decline drastically by about 10 percentage points, reaching 78% capacity utilization in 2032-33 and remaining at this level for the rest of the forecast period. Overall, the projections indicate a consistent trend of decreasing capacity utilization across all school levels over the next decade. However, considerable variability in capacity utilization exists among individual schools within the elementary, middle, and high school groups. The table below provides a more granular view of these individual school-level utilization patterns. CAR 0 L I N A II T CAROLINA Demographic 35 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER � Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 39 Percent Capacity by School:2025-2026 through 2035-2036 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2032- 2033- 2034- 2035- School Name 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Carrboro Elementary 83% 80% 79% 77% 76% 76% 76% 75% 75% Ephesus Elementary 79% 90' Estes Hills Elementary 0% 75% 77% 77% 78% 78% 78% FPG Elementary Glenwood Elementary 102% 102% 102% 102% 101% 101% McDougle Elementary •0' '0' •0' Morris Grove Elementary Northside Elementary Rashkis Elementary 0'. Scroggs Elementary .0' Seawell Elementary 81% 79% 76% ® 76% 75% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76% Culbreth Middle ® 76% 76% 77% 0•. 0 McDougle Middle 84% 83% 82% 78% 79% 78% 78% 78% Phillips Middle 82% 80% 81% 81% 78% 79% 79% 79% 79% Smith Middle Carrboro High 108% 84% 82% Chapel Hill High 82% East Chapel Hill High 90'. 82% 81% 80% 79% Phoenix Academy High Source:CHCCS;NC DPI;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast The heatmap shows that in the current school year five schools exceed 95 percent of reported capacity utilization but by 2029-30 only three schools remain in the red threshold at over 95 percent occupancy: Frank Porter Graham Elementary, Glenwood Elementary, and Ephesus Elementary, driven largely by new students from recent developments. Northside Elementary, Rashkis Elementary, and Scroggs Elementary, which are well below capacity and fall under 70 percent utilization, declining further to about 51 percent, 45 percent, and 56 percent respectively by the end of the forecast period. At the middle school level, no schools are in the red in the current year but Smith Middle jumps above 95 percent in the next year and then declines to roughly 87 percent by 2035-36. McDougle Middle begins above 95 percent this year and then falls steadily to about 78 percent by 2035-36. High schools show a similar pattern: Carrboro High and Chapel Hill High remain more than 95 percent utilized through 2028-29, then their CAR 0 L I N A II T CAROLINA � Demographic 36 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 40 utilization declines and reaches about 82 percent by 2035-36, while other high schools move into and out of the red over the forecast as enrollment shifts. Orange County Schools (OCS) Like Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools, Orange County Schools is experiencing notable shifts in student membership. While the magnitude of decline has been somewhat less pronounced than that of CHCCS, understanding the components driving membership change —and how those dynamics are likely to evolve — positions OCS leadership to plan strategically and confidently for the next five to ten years. This forecast provides the data foundation to support that work. Population Estimates and Births for OCS SAIPE data of 5-17 year olds in Orange County School district shows a stable school-age population over the past decade. The numbers have consistently hovered just below 9,500 students from 2014 through 2024, with only minor fluctuations. While there was a slight increase around 2020-2021, school-aged residents within the OCS district have remained largely constant. This stability in the resident school-age population implies that any significant changes in OCS enrollments are more likely attributable to factors like shifts in birth rates, migration patterns, or changes in educational market share rather than a shrinking demographic base. Population between 5-17 years for OCS district 15,000 to L 10,000 LO C O n. 5,000 O a 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Year Source:US Census Bureau,Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates(SAIPE),2015-25 Births From an estimated 622 annual births in 2022, births in the rest of OCS district (Orange County births excluding Chapel Hill and Carrboro births) are projected to fall to about 598 by 2030 (a roughly 4% decline) and to about 580 by 2036 (about a 6% decline from 2024). These declines in births result in smaller kindergarten cohorts five years later and will C A R O L I N A �I T CAROLINA _ Demographic 37 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 41 exert downward pressure on future elementary enrollment. Kindergarten to births ratio is considered an indicator of not just enrollment but migration patterns. OCS Births: Actual and Projections (2016-2036) 1,000 750 y 610�� 598 580 U) 500 505 m 250 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 Year Source:NC Birth Records,NC State Center for Health Statistics,Demographic Analystics Advisors(DAA)Forecast The OCS Kindergarten-to-Birth Ratio chart reveals significant fluctuations, with ratios initially exceeding 1.0 (indicating more kindergarteners than local births five years prior) but trending downward in recent years. Specifically, the ratio peaked at 1.20 in 2016 and remained above 1.0 through 2020. However, after 2020, the ratio drops considerably, falling to 0.80 in 2025. This sharp post-2020 decline signals a weakening in-migration pattern or increased out-migration or shifting market share trends. OCS:Kindergarten-to-Birth Ratio 800 600 1.13 1.04 1.2 1.13 .99 .91 W.88 89 � .79 •8 .68 400 200 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 Babies born 5 years earlier Kindergarten Source:Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2016-2025,NC Birth Records,NC State Center for Health Statistics C A R O L I N A �I T CAROLINA ADemographic 38 DEMOGR _ PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 42 Migration The English Language Learner (ELL) headcount in the OCS district declined in the current school year falling to 976 from 1,043 in the previous school year. This marks the first year-over-year decline since 2015-16, following a decade- high enrollment of 1,043 just one year prior. Since Orange County is not insulated from federal immigration policies that influence in-migration, these shifts directly impact district enrollment and a declining ELL headcount could be interpreted as a proxy for that. However, the extent of the impact of changing immigration policy on enrollment will be clearer in the coming school year as more recent data becomes available. Headcount of English Language Learners:2016-17 through 2025-26 1,043 975 976 907 771 769 802 722 671 592 11 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Data Source-Headcount of Limited English Proficient Students, Report to the North Carolina General Assembly,NC DPI Current ADM Trends The historical trend for K-12 Average Daily Membership (ADM) in Orange County Schools reveals a steady, long-term decline over the past decade. In the 2015-16 school year, OCS student membership was reported at 7,513 students. This number dipped to 7,365 in 2020 before continuing a downward trajectory to 6,722 in the current school year (2025- 26). This represents a total loss of nearly 800 students over the ten-year period. The decline has accelerated in the five years since the pandemic, suggesting a structural shift in student membership rather than a temporary dip. C A R 0 L I N A �I lJJNCT CAROLINA Demographic 39 DEMOGR _ PHY POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 43 OCS: K-12 ADM Historical Trend 7,513 7,365 6 722 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Source:OCS;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast Next, we analyze market share trends within the OCS district to determine whether the decline in ADM membership is driven by a shift toward non-public options or primarily reflects a shrinking school-age population. Market Share Trends Analysis of market share distribution within the OCS district over the last four school years shows that market share has remained relatively stable over the past four school years, with OCS consistently capturing the majority of students (65% -67%). However, there has been a gradual shift among non-public options. While Home School enrollment has declined from 15% in 2021-22 to 10% in 2024-25, Charter Schools have gradually increased their share from 9% to 11% over the same period. This trend is similar to market share trends in the CHCCS district. Private School enrollment has held steady at approximately 11-12%. Overall, nearly one-third of the district's school-age population continues to opt for alternatives to traditional public education. CAR 0 L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 40 D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 44 Market share by School Type: 2021-22 through 2024-25 12% 12" 12% 0 75 0 100 50% 25% 0% 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 Home Schools Private Schools 0 Charter Schools OCS Source:Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2018-2025,NC DPI;NC DOA ADM memberships (or their forecasts ) in any district are directly impacted by any ongoing or upcoming residential development. The section below examines the student yield potential from these new housing projects. Developments Approximately 3,092 non-age-restricted units are currently planned across 16 under-construction, approved, and preliminary-plan-approved developments in Hillsborough, Mebane, and other parts of the county. The table below lists these developments, showing their total proposed units from municipal and county data, along with our estimated number of units already built based on research and ground surveys. C A R O L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 41 DEMOGR _ PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 45 Number of Units by Development Total Units Complete Occupancy Project Name Project Status Units (Estimate) Start Total-Display Meadowstone Under 147 0 2027 147 Construction Oakwood Division Under 409 150 2026 409 Construction Tupelo Junction Under 123 123 2025 123 Construction Auman Village (Formerly East Village at Approved 76 0 2028 76 Meadowlands) Collins Ridge Phase 1** Approved 631 0 2026 631 Edenview Acres Approved 38 0 2028 38 Stonewall Approved 18 0 2027 18 Tupelo North Approved 207 0 2027 207 Waterstone South Approved 655 0 2029 655 Williams Glen Approved 17 15 2026 17 Bowman Road Townhomes Prelim Plan 89 0 2028 89 Approved Mebane Village Townes Prelim Plan 69 0 2027 69 Approved NACC Subdivision Prelim Plan 106 0 2027 106 Approved Oak Grove Trails Prelim Plan 51 51 2026 51 Approved Saddle Club Subdivision Prelim Plan 110 0 2028 110 Approved Persimmon at Cates Creek/Moren Tract Under Review 346 0 2028 346 Source. OCS;Orange County, Hillsborough and Mebane Municipalities Note:Units complete for Collins Ridge Phase 1 is 0 as reliable estimates of completed units were unavailable. To derive student yield from proposed projects, we first locate each development on Orange County parcel data and allocate the development's units to individual parcels when projects span multiple parcels. We then map those parcels to school attendance zones to determine how many units would potentially contribute students to each elementary, middle, and high school. CAR 0 L I N A ---T CAROLINA � Demographic 42 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 46 Next, we assign a probability that units will be built and occupied within the forecast period based on project status and ground survey conducted by our staff. Projects that are approved or under construction but appear essentially complete on the side (for example, units built but siding or finishing on-going) are assigned a 95-100% probability of completion. Other under-construction projects are assigned an 85% probability. Approved projects receive a 60% probability, preliminary-plan approvals receive 40%, and projects under review are assigned 20%. These probabilities are assumptions about the share of units likely to be built and occupied during the forecast window and are adjusted when ground surveys or permitting updates indicate a different status. For example, where a ground survey found some units already completed and partially occupied in 2025, we removed those units from the forecast because their students are expected to be captured in the 2025-26 ADM baseline. After estimating the probability that units will be built during our forecast duration, we apply an occupancy rate to account for vacancy, short-term rentals, and other non-occupancy factors. We use 2020 Census tract—level occupancy rates to convert probable completed units into expected occupied units. Since developments do not reach full occupancy immediately, we then apply an occupancy timeline (ramp-up) based on each project's estimated start-of-occupancy year and its construction status; the development table above lists each project's estimated occupancy start year, and the occupancy ramp schedule is shown in the table below. Occupancy Timeline for Development Projects in OCS district Year Occupancy Start:2025 Occupancy Start: 2026 Occupancy Start: 2027 Occupancy Start:2028 Occupancy Start: 2029 2026 0% 60% 0% 0% 0% 2027 100% 100% 30% 0% 0% 2028 100% 100% 50% 30% 0% 2029 100% 100% 80% 50% 30% 2030 100% 100% 100% 80% 50% 2031 100% 100% 100% 100% 80% 2032 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2033 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2034 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2035 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2036 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source:Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA) Calculations;Orange County,'Mebane and Hillsborough Municipalities Next, for each development project we estimate how many units will be occupied in each forecast year by applying the occupancy timeline (percent occupied by year) to the project's total units. For example, a 50-unit project with 30% occupancy in its first year and 50% in the second year yields roughly 15 occupied units in year one and 25 in year two. CAR 0 L I N A II T CAROLINA � Demographic 43 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 47 We then convert occupied units into student yield by grade band, multiplying the year-specific occupied units by tract-level age-group occupancy rates for 5-10 year olds (elementary), 11-13 year olds (middle), and 14-17 year olds (high). Those annual student yields are assigned to schools based on attendance boundaries and summed across projects to produce school- and year-level additions. Finally, because the GPR baseline model already captures some development-driven enrollment implicitly, we remove the portion already reflected in the baseline to avoid double counting, and add the net development yield to the baseline to produce the development-adjusted ADM forecast. Baseline Forecast Similar to the methodology applied to CHCCS, we first developed a forecast for the OCS K-12 ADM membership using a baseline model based on grade progression ratios (GPRs). This baseline forecast projects a continuous decline over the coming decade. Starting from 7,513 students in 2015-16, ADM is expected to fall to 6,716 by 2025-26, and then further to 6,449 by 2030-31, ultimately reaching 6,099 by the end of the forecast period in 2035-36. This trajectory indicates a loss of over 1,400 students across the entire period or 617 students between 2025-26 and 2035-36). OCS: K-12 ADM Baseline Forecast 7,513 716 6,449 4,000 2,000 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 Source.OCS,Demographic AnaVics Advisors(DAA)Forecast At the grade level, the baseline forecast projects a consistent decline in ADM across all levels between 2025-26 through 2035-36, with the most pronounced reductions in high schools. Elementary School ADM, starting at 2,832 students in 2025-26, is forecasted to decrease by 127 students to 2,705 by 2030-31, and further to 2,651 by 2035-36, a total 10- year decline of 181 students. Middle School ADM, at 1,596 students in 2025-26, is projected to decline to 1,401 by 2035-36, a total loss of 195 students. High Schools, with 2,288 students in 2025-26, show the largest overall projected decrease, dropping by 241 students to 2,047 by 2035-36. C A R 0 L I N A ��T �T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 44 D E M O G R _ P H Y lJl �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 48 OCS ADM Baseline Forecast by Level:2015-16 to 2035-36 Level 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Elementary Schools 3,309 3,269 3,178 3,176 3,219 3,040 2,927 3,044 3,034 2,975 2,832 2,808 2,795 2,751 2,722 2,705 2,712 2,693 2,677 2,660 2,651 High School 2,471 2,444 2,439 2,351 2,389 2,338 2,394 2,470 2,376 2,356 2,288 2,245 2,279 2,280 2,274 2,266 2,226 2,168 2,132 2,078 2,047 Middle Schools 1,733 1,722 1,722 1,773 1,757 1,653 1,593 1,594 1,568 1,577 1,596 1,606 1,560 1,523 1,508 1,479 1,421 1,409 1,403 1,419 1,401 Total 7,513 7,435 7,339 7,300 7,365 7,031 6,914 7,108 6,978 6,908 6,716 6,659 6,634 6,554 6,504 6,449 6,360 6,270 6,213 6,157 6,099 Source:OCS;Demographic Antics Advisors(DAA)Forecast In the section below, we analyze the ADM forecasts developed after incorporating development information into our baseline forecasts and adjusting for market share. Forecast with Development Yield Similar to the baseline model, the development-adjusted forecast for OCS K-12 ADM projects a continuous decline through the forecast period, but the drop is slightly smaller after accounting for student yield from new developments. The baseline model forecasts a loss of 617 ADM between the current year and the end of the forecast, while the development-adjusted forecast reduces that loss to 593 students. Historically, OCS has already observed a decline in ADM between 2015-16 and 2025-26 of about 791 students. OCS: K-12 ADM Development Adjusted Forecast 7,513 4,477 722 6,000 Z129 4,000 2,000 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 Source:OCS;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast CAR 0 L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 45 D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 49 By grade level, the development-adjusted forecasts show declines across all segments between the current 2025-26 baseline and 2035-36, with high schools projected to lose the most students. Elementary ADM falls from about 2,838 in 2025-26 to 2,681 in 2035-36, a decline of 157 fewer students. Middle school ADM declines from roughly 1,596 to 1,401 during this period. High school ADM drops from about 2,288 to 2,047 between 2025-26 and 2035-36 (or 241 fewer students). OCS Development Adjusted ADM Forecasts by Level:2015-16 to 2025-26 Level 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Elementary Schools 3,309 3,269 3,178 3,176 3,219 3,040 2,927 3,044 3,034 2,975 2,838 2,821 2,811 2,772 2,748 2,733 2,742 2,723 2,707 2,690 2,681 Middle Schools 1,733 1,722 1,722 1,773 1,757 1,653 1,593 1,594 1,568 1,577 1,596 1,606 1,560 1,523 1,508 1,479 1,421 1,409 1,403 1,419 1,401 High School 2,471 2,444 2,439 2,351 2,389 2,338 2,394 2,470 2,376 2,356 2,288 2,245 2,279 2,280 2,274 2,266 2,226 2,168 2,132 2,078 2,047 Total 7,513 7,435 7,339 7,300 7,365 7,031 6,914 7,108 6,978 6,908 6,722 6,672 6,649 6,575 6,529 6,477 6,390 6,300 6,243 6,187 6,129 Source:OCS;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast Elementary School ADM trend shows a steady decline from 3,309 in 2015-16 to 2,838 in 2025-26, with projections continuing downward to about 2,681 by 2035-36. A small uptick around 2021-22 through 2023-24 school years is visible but that does not offset the overall loss in ADM in the coming years despite accounting for expected student yield from new development. OCS: District Elementary School ADM: 2015-16 to 2035-36 a,000 3,309 3,000 2,838 0_. .0. r r 3,7 3 2,681 2,000 1,000 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 Source,Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2016-2026:Demographic Analyfics Advisors(DAA)Forecast Middle school ADM shows a gradual but steady decline over the forecast period. After an uptick around 2019-20, enrollment falls to about 1,596 in 2025-26 and is projected to decline further to roughly 1,401 by 2035-36. However, the extent of decline is projected to be more moderate than at the elementary and high school levels. C A R O L I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA _ Demographic 46 DEMOGR _ PHYlPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 50 OCS: District Middle School ADM: 2015-16 to 2035-36 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,733 1,596 1,479 1,401 1,000 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 Source:Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2016-2026;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast Similar to the baseline forecast, high school ADM in OCS district shows a steady downward trend even after adjusting for student yields . Although a brief uptick in ADM is observed in 2022-23 (-2500), it falls to about 2,288 in 2025-26 and is projected to decline further to roughly 2,047 by 2035-36. This represents a loss of about 241 students from 2025-26 to 2035-36 which is the highest among all grade levels. CAR 0 L I N A - T I C CAROLINA _ Demographic 47 D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 51 OCS: District High School ADM: 2015-16 to 2035-36 4,000 3,000 2,471 288 2,266 -+ 047 2,000 1,000 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 Source:Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2016-2026,Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast Although overall district ADM is declining, the magnitude of that decline varies by school. The table below shows ADM for selected years and the percent change from the current 2025-26 school year through 2035-36. The school-level heatmap (below) indicates that ADM declines are uneven across the district. A few schools—for example, New Hope Elementary and Pathways Elementary— show periods of growth or in the early forecast years, but some elementary and high schools exhibit persistent declines (for example, Central Elementary, River Park Elementary, and Orange High). None of the Elementary or High schools are projected to experience ADM increases after 2031-32. Some middle schools show short-term increases (e.g., A L Stanback), but overall middle-level ADM is also projected to trend downward by the end of the forecast period. CAR 0 L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 48 D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 52 OCS ADM: 2025-26 Through 2035-36 by School, Colored by Year-Over-Year%Change School 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Central Elementary 230 177 175 174 173 172 Efland Cheeks Elementary 484 467 456 437 427 408 409 406 404 402 401 Grady Brown Elementary 390 383 383 379 373 376 376 373 372 369 368 Hillsborough Elementary 433 434 440 442 442 445 445 442 439 437 435 New Hope Elementary 514 539 543 552 576 601 605 601 598 595 592 Pathways Elementary 359 354 355 360 358 355 351 350 River Park Elementary 434 390 371 371 367 365 363 362 A L Stanback Middle 631 631 629 604 569 571 569 566 570 563 Gravelly Hill Middle 452 430 417 413 409 393 388 386 391 387 Orange Middle 499 477 490 481 456 452 451 458 451 Cedar Ridge High 1,172 1,178 1,186 1,196 1,189 1,182 1,163 1,132 1,114 1,085 1,067 Orange High 1,028 1,054 1,045 1,047 1,045 1,024 997 979 955 941 Partnership Academy 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 Total 6,722 6,672 6,649 6,575 6,529 6,477 6,390 6,300 6,243 6,187 6,129 Source:Month 2 ADM Principal's Monthly Report;NC DPI and Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast ADM across OCS schools are projected to decline despite taking into consideration the student yields from new developments around Hillsborough, Mebane, and parts of the County. In the table below, we have shown the student yield coming from development projects that impact Efland Cheeks Elementary. This school is projected to gain about 16 students throughout the forecast period from the various developments, with Oakwood Division contributing 6 students and Tupelo North and Meadowstone contributing 3 students each. Oak Grove Trails is already built and occupied, so its students are reflected in current ADM and no additional yield is counted to avoid double-counting. Detailed project-level development impacts for elementary, middle, and high schools are provided in Appendix C. CAR 0 L I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA _ Demographic 49 DEMOGR PHY � lPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 53 Development Impact: Efland Cheeks Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Oakwood Division 409 150 2026 6 Tupelo North 207 0 2027 3 Meadowstone 147 0 2027 3 NACC Subdivision 106 0 2027 1 Saddle Club Subdivision 110 0 2028 1 Bowman Road Townhomes 89 0 2028 1 Mebane Village Townes 69 0 2027 1 Oak Grove Trails 51 51 2026 0 Tupelo Junction 123 123 2025 0 Tota 1 1,311 324 — 16 Source: Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA), OCS,Orange County, Hillsborough and Mebane municipalities Next we consider the 5-year and 10-year student yield from residential and mixed-use developments in the pipeline. Planned projects are estimated to add about 67 students by 2030-31 and 71 students by 2035-36. The largest gains are at Cedar Ridge High (18-19 students), Efland Cheeks Elementary (15 students), and New Hope Elementary (8-9 students),with smaller additions at A L Stanback Middle and Gravelly Hill Middle. While these developments do generate additional student yield and adjust the baseline ADM forecast upwards, their cumulative impact is small relative to districtwide ADM and insufficient to reverse the overall projected declines in ADM. CAR 0 L I N A ---T CAROLINA � Demographic 50 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 54 5-Yr and 10-Yr Student Yield from Developments by Schools: 2030-31 and 2035-36 School Name 2031 2036 A L Stanback Middle 6 7 Cedar Ridge High 18 19 Central Elementary 4 4 Efland Cheeks Elementary 15 15 Grady Brown Elementary 0 0 Gravelly Hill Middle 8 8 Hillsborough Elementary 0 0 New Hope Elementary 8 9 Orange High 7 7 Orange Middle 0 0 Partnership Academy 0 0 Pathways Elementary 0 0 River Park Elementary 1 1 Total 67 71 Source:Demographic Analytics Advisors (DAA) Calculations;Orange County, Mebane and Hillsborough Municipalities Conclusion Even after incorporating expected student yield from under-construction and proposed developments, the baseline and development-adjusted forecasts for CHCCS and OCS project a gradual, sustained decline in ADM over the 2025-26 through 2035-36 period. Most of the decline is concentrated in the next five years, and we attribute it primarily to two factors: First, a shrinking demographic dividend — fewer births and the smaller cohorts born around and after the COVID years — means fewer children entering kindergarten and smaller cohorts advancing through the system. This, in addition to the anticipated decline in international migration at the county level, further slows down population growth overall, particularly among school-age children. Second, ongoing shifts in education market-share options will reduce public school enrollment. Increases in charter school capacity and expansion of private-school options driven by the implementation of the private school voucher law (which triples the budget of the Opportunity Scholarship Program removes income and prior public school enrollment restrictions) are expected to draw students away from CHCCS and OCS. Together, these forces disproportionately CAR 0 L I N A II T CAROLINA Demographic 51 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 55 affect elementary and middle grades (where cohort loss is concentrated) and create downside risk to enrollment even if housing-driven population gains occur in higher-density, low-yield unit types. C A R O L I N A AT �T� CAROLINA maDemographic 52 D E M O G R _ P H Y lJl �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 56 Appendix A Data Sources CHCCS: Datasets Used in the Development of the ADM Forecasts Dataset Description Source Years Covered Average Daily Average daily membership by grade and by CHCCS, NCDPI 2015-16 Membership school for month 2 of the school year. Data through 2025- Month 2 were delivered by grade by school for the past 26 10 school years, student/ address level data were provided for the current school year only Attendance Zone Current geographic boundaries for each of the CHCCS 2026-26 Boundaries current schools Decennial Census Data on population by age, housing occupancy, US Census Bureau 2000, 2010, Data persons per household from the decennial 2020 census Population Estimates and projections of the population by NC OSBM 2010 through Estimates and age for Orange County 2060 Forecasts Births Births to resident mothers in Orange County NC DPH 2O11 through 2022 Approved Approved developments throughout the county Chapel Hill & Carrboro Current Developments by number of units and parcel municipalities Proposed Proposed developments throughout the county Chapel Hill & Carrboro Current Developments by number of units and parcel municipalities C A R 0 L I N A II T JNC CAROLINA Demographic 53 DEMOGR _ PHY lJPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 57 OCS: Datasets Used in the Development of the ADM Forecasts Dataset Description Source Years Covered Average Daily Average daily membership by grade and by OCS, NCDPI 2015-16 Membership school for month 2 of the school year. Data through 2025- Month 2 were delivered by grade by school for the past 26 10 school years, student/ address level data were provided for the current school year only Attendance Zone Current geographic boundaries for each of the OCS 2026-26 Boundaries current schools Decennial Census Data on population by age, housing occupancy, US Census Bureau 2000, 2010, Data persons per household from the decennial 2020 census Population Estimates and projections of the population by NC OSBM 2010 through Estimates and age for Orange County 2060 Forecasts Births Births to resident mothers in Orange County NC DPH 2O11 through 2022 Approved Approved developments throughout the county Orange County, Current Developments by number of units and parcel Hillsborough, and Mebane Proposed Proposed developments throughout the county Orange County, Current Developments by number of units and parcel Hillsborough, and Mebane C A R 0 L I N A II T JNC CAROLINA Demographic 54 DEMOGR _ PHY POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 58 Appendix B Development Impact on CHCCS Schools: Elementary Schools Development Impact: Carrboro Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Columbia St Annex 59 59 2027 0 Total 59 59 — 0 Source: Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. Development Impact: Ephesus Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Weaver's Grove-1 117 50 2027 12 Park Apartments Phase II 259 259 2027 10 Aura Blue Hill 313 0 2027 8 Gateway-1 314 0 2028 6 Gateway-2 72 0 2029 4 Tarheel Lodging Phase II 283 0 2029 4 Weaver's Grove-2 35 0 2029 2 The Reserve at Blue Hill 212 0 2030 1 Residence Inn Hotel and Summit Place Townhomes 52 0 2028 1 Millennium Chapel Hill/University Inn 274 274 2027 0 Total 1,931 583 — 49 Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. CAR 0 L I N A II T CAROLINA Demographic 55 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 59 Development Impact: Glenwood Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Glen Lennox 528 0 2029 11 Residence Inn Hotel and Summit Place Townhomes 52 0 2028 1 Total 580 0 — 12 Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. Development Impact: Estes Hills Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Aura Booth Park(f.k.a Aura Chapel Hill) 418 309 2027 29 860 Weaver Dairy Road 710 0 2029 17 710 N Estes Townhomes 107 0 2027 5 Carraway Residential Phase III 169 0 2029 4 Carraway Village 50 0 2029 2 Residence Inn Hotel and Summit Place Townhomes 52 0 2028 1 Total 1,506 309 — 58 Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. Development Impact: Morris Grove Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add St Paul Village 347 0 2029 22 Jade Creek 72 0 2027 10 860 Weaver Dairy Road 710 0 2029 6 Carraway Residential Phase III 169 0 2029 4 Newbury-1 12 0 2028 0 Carraway Village 50 0 2029 0 Tota 1 1,360 0 — 42 Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. CAR 0 L I N A II T CAROLINA Demographic 56 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 60 Development Impact: Northside Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Hillside Trace(prev.MLK Affordable Housing) 181 0 2029 5 Jay St Affordable Housing 48 0 2029 2 701 MILK Jr Blvd Residential 182 0 2029 2 PEACH Apartments 10 0 2027 1 Trinity Court 14 14 2027 1 623 MILK Cottages 5 0 2029 0 1701 North Uses 6 0 2029 0 Link Apartments Rosemary 150 0 2029 0 Total 596 14 — 11 Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. Development Impact: Rashkis Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Aura South Elliott 335 0 2029 7 University Place 247 0 2029 4 Aura Blue Hill 313 0 2027 4 Grand Alexander Subdivision 8 0 2029 1 271 Erwin 20 0 2030 1 Millennium Chapel Hill/University Inn 274 274 2027 0 Total 1,197 274 — 16 Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. CAR 0 L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 57 D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 61 Development Impact: Scroggs Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add South Creek Phase 2 266 0 2027 19 South Creek 454 0 2029 7 Flintrock Knoll 159 0 2030 3 South Creek Phase 1 92 92 2027 3 Holy Trinity Anglican Church 6 0 2029 0 Total 977 92 — 33 Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. Development Impact: Seawell Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Homestead Gardens 92 0 2028 8 Homestead Road Tri-Point PH 1 63 63 2027 4 Newbury-2 24 0 2028 3 Homestead Road Tri-Point PH 2 55 0 2028 3 Newbury-1 12 0 2028 1 Ughtbridge 5 0 2029 0 Total 251 63 — 18 Source: Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 58 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER � Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 62 C A R O L I N A �I UNC CAROLINA ma Demographic 59 D E M O G R _ P H Y POPULATION CENTERMM Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 63 Development Impact on CHCCS Schools: Middle Schools Development Impact: Culbreth Middle Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add South Creek Phase 2 266 0 2027 11 Glen Lennox 528 0 2029 6 South Creek 454 0 2029 4 Flintrock Knoll 159 0 2030 2 South Creek Phase 1 92 92 2027 1 Grand Alexander Subdivision 8 0 2029 0 Holy Trinity Anglican Church 6 0 2029 0 Total 1,513 92 — 25 Source: Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. Development Impact: McDougle Middle Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Jade Creek 72 0 2027 7 PEACH Apartments 10 0 2027 0 Newbury-1 12 0 2028 0 Total 94 0 — 7 Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 60 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 64 Development Impact: Phillips Middle Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Aura Booth Park(f.k.a Aura Chapel Hill) 418 309 2027 18 Aura Blue Hill 313 0 2027 7 Weaver's Grove-1 117 50 2027 6 Park Apartments Phase II 259 259 2027 6 Aura South Elliott 335 0 2029 3 710 N Estes Townhomes 107 0 2027 3 Gateway-1 314 0 2028 3 University Place 247 0 2029 2 Gateway-2 72 0 2029 2 Tarheel Lodging Phase II 283 0 2029 2 Hillside Trace(prev. MLK Affordable Housing) 181 0 2029 2 Carraway Residential Phase III 169 0 2029 2 Residence Inn Hotel and Summit Place Townhomes 52 0 2028 2 Weaver's Grove-2 35 0 2029 1 Carraway Village 50 0 2029 1 701 MLK Jr Blvd Residential 182 0 2029 1 The Reserve at Blue Hill 212 0 2030 1 271 Erwin 20 0 2030 0 Trinity Court 14 14 2027 0 623 MLK Cottages 5 0 2029 0 Link Apartments Rosemary 150 0 2029 0 Millennium Chapel Hill/University Inn 274 274 2027 0 Total 3,809 906 — 62 Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 61 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 65 Development Impact: Phillips Middle Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Aura Booth Park(f.k.a Aura Chapel Hill) 418 309 2027 18 Aura Blue Hill 313 0 2027 7 Weaver's Grove-1 117 50 2027 6 Park Apartments Phase 11 259 259 2027 6 Aura South Elliott 335 0 2029 3 710 N Estes Townhomes 107 0 2027 3 Gateway-1 314 0 2028 3 University Place 247 0 2029 2 Gateway-2 72 0 2029 2 Tarheel Lodging Phase 11 283 0 2029 2 Hillside Trace(prev. MLK Affordable Housing) 181 0 2029 2 Carraway Residential Phase 111 169 0 2029 2 Residence Inn Hotel and Summit Place Townhomes 52 0 2028 2 Weaver's Grove-2 35 0 2029 1 Carraway Village 50 0 2029 1 701 MLKJr Blvd Residential 182 0 2029 1 The Reserve at Blue Hill 212 0 2030 1 271 Erwin 20 0 2030 0 Trinity Court 14 14 2027 0 623 MLK Cottages 5 0 2029 0 Link Apartments Rosemary 150 0 2029 0 Millennium Chapel Hill/University Inn 274 274 2027 0 Total 3,809 906 — 62 Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. CAR 0 L I N A ��UNC CAROLINA _ Demographic 62 D E M O G R P H Y POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 66 Development Impact: Smith Middle Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add St Paul Village 347 0 2029 14 860 Weaver Dairy Road 710 0 2029 13 Homestead Gardens 92 0 2028 4 Homestead Road Tri-Point PH 1 63 63 2027 2 Carraway Residential Phase III 169 0 2029 2 Newbury-2 24 0 2028 2 Homestead Road Tri-Point PH 2 55 0 2028 2 Jay St Affordable Housing 48 0 2029 1 Newbury-1 12 0 2028 1 Trinity Court 14 14 2027 0 Carraway Village 50 0 2029 0 Lightbridge 5 0 2029 0 1701 North Uses 6 0 2029 0 Columbia St Annex 59 59 2027 0 Link Apartments Rosemary 150 0 2029 0 Total 1,804 136 — 41 Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. CAR 0 L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 63 D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 67 C A R O L I N A �I UNC CAROLINA ma Demographic 64 D E M O G R _ P H Y POPULATION CENTERMM Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 68 Development Impact on CHCCS Schools: High Schools Development Impact:Carrboro HS Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add South Creek Phase 2 266 0 2027 17 South Creek 454 0 2029 6 Flintrock Knoll 159 0 2030 3 South Creek Phase 1 92 92 2027 2 Holy Trinity Anglican Church 6 0 2029 0 Total 977 92 — 28 Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. Development Impact:CHHS Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add St Paul Village 347 0 2029 20 Jade Creek 72 0 2027 9 Homestead Gardens 92 0 2028 7 Carraway Residential Phase III 169 0 2029 3 Homestead Road Tri-Point PH 1 63 63 2027 3 Newbury-2 24 0 2028 2 Homestead Road Tri-Point PH 2 55 0 2028 2 Jay St Affordable Housing 48 0 2029 2 Newbury-1 12 0 2028 1 PEACH Apartments 10 0 2027 0 Carraway Village 50 0 2029 0 Trinity Court 14 14 2027 0 1701 North Uses 6 0 2029 0 Total 962 77 — 50 Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. CAR 0 L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 65 D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 69 Development Impact:East CHHS Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Aura Booth Park(f.k.a Aura Chapel Hill) 418 309 2027 23 860 Weaver Dairy Road 710 0 2029 21 Aura Blue Hill 313 0 2027 10 Park Apartments Phase II 259 259 2027 9 Weaver's Grove-1 117 50 2027 9 Glen Lennox 528 0 2029 7 Aura South Elliott 335 0 2029 4 710 N Estes Townhomes 107 0 2027 4 Gateway-1 314 0 2028 4 Hillside Trace(prev.MILK Affordable Housing) 181 0 2029 3 Carraway Residential Phase III 169 0 2029 3 University Place 247 0 2029 3 Gateway-2 72 0 2029 2 Tarheel Lodging Phase II 283 0 2029 2 Residence Inn Hotel and Summit Place Townhomes 52 0 2028 2 Carraway Village 50 0 2029 2 Weaver's Grove-2 35 0 2029 2 701 MLK Jr Blvd Residential 182 0 2029 1 The Reserve at Blue Hill 212 0 2030 1 271 Erwin 20 0 2030 0 Grand Alexander Subdivision 8 0 2029 0 Trinity Court 14 14 2027 0 Lightbridge 5 0 2029 0 623 MILK Cottages 5 0 2029 0 Columbia St Annex 59 59 2027 0 Link Apartments Rosemary 150 0 2029 0 Millennium Chapel Hill/University Inn 274 274 2027 0 Total 5,119 965 — 114 Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. CAR 0 L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 66 D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 70 Appendix C Development Impact on OCS Schools: Elementary Schools Development Impact: Central Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Collins Ridge Phase 1 631 NA 2026 4 Total 631 0 — 4 Source: Demographic Analytics Advisors (DAA), OCS, Orange County, Hillsborough and Mebane municipalities Development Impact: Efland Cheeks Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Oakwood Division 409 150 2026 6 Tupelo North 207 0 2027 3 Meadowstone 147 0 2027 3 NACC Subdivision 106 0 2027 1 Saddle Club Subdivision 110 0 2028 1 Bowman Road Townhomes 89 0 2028 1 Mebane Village Townes 69 0 2027 1 Oak Grove Trails 51 51 2026 0 Tupelo Junction 123 123 2025 0 Total 1,311 324 — 16 Source: Demographic Analytics Advisors (DAA), OCS, Orange County, Hillsborough and Mebane municipalities CAR 0 L I N A �I T JNC CAROLINA � Demographic 67 DEMOGR PHY lJPOPULATION CENTER = Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 71 Development Impact: Grady Brown Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Edenview Acres 38 0 2028 0 Total 38 0 — 0 Source: Demographic Analytics Advisors (DAA), OCS, Orange County, Hillsborough and Mebane municipalities Development Impact: New Hope Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Waterstone South 655 0 2029 8 Persimmon at Cates Creek/Moren Tract 346 0 2028 1 Total 1,001 0 — 9 Source: Demographic Analytics Advisors (DAA), OCS, Orange County, Hillsborough and Mebane municipalities Development Impact: River Park Elementary Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Auman Village (Formerly East Village at Meadowlands) 76 0 2028 1 Stonewall 18 0 2027 0 Williams Glen 17 15 2026 0 Total 111 15 — 1 Source:Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA),OCS,Orange County,Hillsborough and Mebane municipalities CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 68 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 72 Development Impact on OCS Schools: Middle Schools Development Impact:A L Stanback Middle Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Waterstone South 655 0 2029 4 Collins Ridge Phase 1 631 NA 2026 1 Persimmon at Cates Creek/Moren Tract 346 0 2028 1 Auman Village (Formerly East Village at Meadowlands) 76 0 2028 0 Edenview Acres 38 0 2028 0 Williams Glen 17 15 2026 0 Total 1,763 15 — 7 Source:Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA),OCS,Orange County, Hillsborough and Mebane municipalities CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 69 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER � Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 73 Development Impact: Gravelly Hill Middle Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Oakwood Division 409 150 2026 3 Meadowstone 147 0 2027 2 Tupelo North 207 0 2027 1 NACC Subdivision 106 0 2027 1 Bowman Road Townhomes 89 0 2028 0 Saddle Club Subdivision 110 0 2028 0 Mebane Village Townes 69 0 2027 0 Oak Grove Trails 51 51 2026 0 Tupelo Junction 123 123 2025 0 Total 1,311 324 — 9 Source: Demographic Analytics Advisors (DAA), OCS,Orange County, Hillsborough and Mebane municipalities Development Impact: Orange Middle Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Stonewall 18 0 2027 0 Total 18 0 — 0 Source: Demographic Analytics Advisors (DAA), OCS, Orange County, Hillsborough and Mebane municipalities Development Impact on OCS Schools: High Schools CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA � Demographic 70 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 74 Development Impact: Cedar Ridge High Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Waterstone South 655 0 2029 6 Oakwood Division 409 150 2026 4 Meadowstone 147 0 2027 2 Collins Ridge Phase 1 631 NA 2026 2 Persimmon at Cates Creek/Moren Tract 346 0 2028 1 NACC Subdivision 106 0 2027 1 Bowman Road Townhomes 89 0 2028 1 Auman Village (Formerly East Village at Meadowlands) 76 0 2028 1 Saddle Club Subdivision 110 0 2028 0 Oak Grove Trails 51 51 2026 0 Edenview Acres 38 0 2028 0 Tupelo Junction 123 123 2025 0 Williams Glen 17 15 2026 0 Total 2,798 339 — 19 Source:Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA),OCS,Orange County, Hillsborough and Mebane municipalities CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA � Demographic 71 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER � Analytics Advisors Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 75 Development Impact: Orange High Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add Oakwood Division 409 150 2026 4 Tupelo North 207 0 2027 2 Saddle Club Subdivision 110 0 2028 0 Mebane Village Townes 69 0 2027 0 Oak Grove Trails 51 51 2026 0 Stonewall 18 0 2027 0 Tupelo Junction 123 123 2025 0 Tota 1 987 324 — 7 Source: Demographic Analytics Advisors (DAA), OCS, Orange County, Hillsborough and Mebane municipalities CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 72 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors