HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda 03-10-2026; 2 - Orange County Land Use Plan 2050 – Board Request for Additional Information 1
ORANGE COUNTY
BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS
ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT
Meeting Date: March 10, 2026
Action Agenda
Item No. 2
SUBJECT: Orange County Land Use Plan 2050 — Board Request for Additional Information
DEPARTMENT: Planning and Inspections
ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT:
A. PowerPoint Presentation, Updated Fact Book Tom Altieri, 919-245-2579
Excerpts Cy Stober, 919-245-2592
Perdita Holtz, 919-245-2578
PURPOSE: To receive a follow-up presentation in a series as response to the Board's request
for additional background information for the Land Use Plan 2050 process.
BACKGROUND: The original Fact Book (February 2024) was prepared by Clarion Associates
and posted to the project specific website it maintains as part of the contractual scope with Orange
County.
The original Fact book as well as the updated (February 2026) version can be found via the
"Resources" tab of the project website, listed under "Project Resources and Documents":
https://www.orangecountylanduseplan.com/resources
The Fact Book:
• Provides data on existing conditions and projected future trends to provide a common
understanding of Orange County at the start of this Land Use Plan 2050 process.
• Serves as a resource as the plan is being developed. New data continually becomes
available, such as new Census data and updated development features maintained by the
County's GIS staff. This Fact Book freezes the data at a moment in time and is a useful
snapshot of County conditions today to help inform development of the plan.
• Is not intended to be an encyclopedia of every data point about Orange County.
The Fact Book Update:
• 41 of the 137 total pages/slides have been updated by Planning staff.
• In late-January 2026, the US Census Bureau released five-year American Community
Survey (ACS) estimates, and where applicable, the Fact Book has been updated to reflect
the newly released data.
• The 2022 ACS data (derived from 2018 — 2022 sample data) included in the original Fact
Book has been replaced with 2024 ACS data (derived from 2020-2024 sample data).
• Data collected by the Planning Department, on annexation and building permit issuance,
have also been incorporated into the update.
The PowerPoint presentation (Attachment A) represents a sampling of information contained
in the updated Fact Book, as well as housing data that is not part of the Fact Book update.
2
The slides in the presentation have been selected by staff based on their understanding of
some of the Board's areas of interest, as conveyed during its previous work session
discussions. The following is a summary of some minor changes or differences between the
updated data contained in the presentation and that contained in the original Fact Book:
Slide 1 —Added date of update, February 2026.
Slide 2 — Included 2019 American Community Survey data for comparison to 2024 data.
Slide 3— Between 2022—2024, Orange County's total population increased by 5,049 persons.
The population of the unincorporated portion of the County increased by 1,207
people.
Slide 4 — No change.
Slide 5 — The Center for Disease Control Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) map was updated
with 2022 data.
Slide 6 —480 additional acres were annexed between 2023-2025; 112- acres by Hillsborough
and 368-acres by Mebane.
Slide 7 — 609 additional certificates of occupancy were issued by Orange County between
2024-2025; 568 for residential properties and 41 for commercial properties.
Slide 8— Between 2022 —2024, the County's total number of housing units increased by 2,544
units, from 60,314 total units to 62,858.
Slide 9 — The Housing Cost Burden for Orange County Homeowners was updated with 2024
data. There was no appreciable change.
Slide 10 —The Housing Cost Burden for Orange County Renters was updated with 2024 data.
There was no appreciable change.
Housing Data: Separate from the data updates to the Fact Book, but relevant to the discussions
regarding growth and land use patterns in the county, staff is providing data and analysis of
residential development activity in Orange County. In Fall 2025, the Board requested information
about residential construction activity throughout Orange County, particularly how many
residential units had been approved but were not yet built or occupied. The Board was interested
in how the county as a whole is responding to the housing needs established in three different
studies done on behalf of the Town of Chapel Hill in 2021 ("Projected Housing Needs 2020 —
2040"), the NC Chamber Foundation in 2024 ("Housing Supply Gap Analysis"), and the Triangle
Community Foundation in 2025 ("Orange County, North Carolina Affordable Housing Market
Data").
In response to this request, staff reviewed building activity in unincorporated Orange County and
informally surveyed the Planning departments of the municipalities in Orange County. This work
was done in January 2026, and captures the status of building activity throughout the entire county
for 2025. It was updated to include the Chapel Hill conditional zoning approvals at their February
25 meeting. Table 1 shows the results of the survey for Approved but Unbuilt Residential Units in
Carrboro, Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, Mebane, and Unincorporated Orange County, respectively,
by housing type.
3
Table 1
Approved Units Not Totals Carrboro Chapel Hillsborough Mebane Orange
Yet Built Hill County*
Multifamily 4,995 104 4,125 766 0 0
Townhome 1,213 409 361 443 0
Single-Family 1,307 108 9 79 1,000 111
Total 7,515 212 4,543 1,206 1,443 111
of Approved Units 2.7% 58.1% 15.4% 18.4% 1.4%
*Unincorporated
Table 2 shows the residential units that are under construction throughout the county that are not
yet occupied. These units should all have occupants within the calendar year. Nearly all of this
activity is occurring in Chapel Hill and Hillsborough.
Table 2
Approved Units Under Totals Carrboro Chapel Hillsborough Mebane Orange
Construction Hill County
Multifamily 3,189 2,863 326
Townhome 413 321 92
Single-Family 248 0 237 11
Sub-Total 3,850 0 3,184 655 0 11
Table 3 aggregates all of this data to summarize the status of approved residential activity
throughout Orange County, as of January 2026. The attached presentation provides an analysis
of how this residential activity is meeting the county's housing needs but, generally, Chapel Hill,
Hillsborough, and Mebane are approving residential projects and construction at larger volumes
than historic trends, and appear to meeting the market demand for market-rate multifamily
construction, as established by the studies. Single-family residential activity appears to not be
meeting the needs of Orange County, as established by the studies. Finally, Chapel Hill and
Hillsborough have reported that they have approved 1,062 and 75 affordable units, respectively,
that are restricted to eligible households meeting income requirements. As established by the
referenced studies, Orange County, as a whole, is not meeting the rental and for-sale housing
needs for lower-income households. The attached slides provide more data from the referenced
studies and compare the survey data to the studies and their respective conclusions.
Table 3
Approved Residential Totals Carrboro Chapel Hillsborough Mebane Orange
Units Hill County
Multifamily 8,184 104 6,988 1,092 0 0
Townhome 1,626 0 730 453 443 0
Single-Family 1,555 108 9 316 1,000 122
TOTAL 11,365 212 7,727 1,861 1,443 122
% of All Approved 1.9% 68.0% 16.4% 12.7% 1.1%
Total Units
% of 2024 County 14.0% 40.2% 6.7% 2.7% 36.3%
Population
4
Next Steps: A third BOCC retreat has been scheduled for Saturday, March 21 for the Board to
continue receiving background information. Following the conclusion of presentations, the BOCC
has been asked by Clarion Associates and Planning staff to identify any changes to the
preliminary draft Land Use Plan 2050 that may be needed prior to its release for public review
during Community Engagement Window (CEW) #3. CEW #3 was scheduled to occur between
May - July of 2025. The last public engagement meeting held for the LUP 2050 project occurred,
during CEW #2, on October 15, 2024.
Contract Amendment #4 will need to be prepared and approved by the BOCC prior to Clarion's
initiation of any work editing the preliminary draft LUP 2050, scheduling engagement meetings,
preparing engagement materials, and coordinating with County staff for public notice prior to the
launch of engagement.
Additional information about the project, including e-mail sign-up for project updates, are available
on the project website: https://www.orangecountylanduser)lan.com.
Completed project deliverables, including Fact Books; outreach summaries; and more, are also
available on the project website: https://www.orangecountylanduseplan.com/resources
Why does Orange County Need to Update its Land Use Plan? - In North Carolina, local
governments that apply "...zoning regulations... shall adopt and reasonably maintain a
comprehensive plan or land-use plan (G.S. 160D-501(a)). This statute requires that zoning
regulations are "in accordance with a comprehensive plan" and requires that local governments
make statements of consistency when making rezoning decisions on a development application.
The existing Orange County Comprehensive Plan was adopted in November 2008.
FINANCIAL IMPACT: There is no financial impact associated with this item.
ALIGNMENT WITH STRATEGIC PLAN: The Land Use Plan 2050 project supports:
• GOAL 1: ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE ACTION
OBJECTIVE 4. Incentivize and promote sustainable agriculture and local food systems
development through supportive policy, funding, farmland protection and educational
outreach.
OBJECTIVE 5. Review land use policies to promote and connect Town, County, and
private trails and open spaces.
OBJECTIVE 6. Protect water supply/watersheds.
OBJECTIVE 7. Conserve and protect high priority open space, including Natural Heritage
sites, nature preserves, watershed riparian buffers, and prime/threatened farmland.
OBJECTIVE 8. Include environmental stewardship objectives in the Comprehensive Land
Use Plan.
• GOAL 2: HEALTHY COMMUNITY
OBJECTIVE 7. Invest in services and programs that improve the health and quality of life
of the community (e.g., recreation and public open spaces, arts, etc.)
• GOAL 3: HOUSING FOR ALL
OBJECTIVE 5. Review County ordinances, policies, agreements, and the regulatory
processes to streamline practices, and increase opportunities and reduce barriers to
construct housing.
OBJECTIVE 7. Expand resources and invest in housing designed for our aging and
disabled residents.
5
OBJECTIVE 9. Increase representation of people with lived experience on housing related
matters.
• GOAL 4: MULTI-MODAL TRANSPORTATION
OBJECTIVE 1. Identify priorities and resources necessary to implement the Orange
County Transit Plan.
• GOAL 5: PUBLIC EDUCATION/LEARNING COMMUNITY
OBJECTIVE 1. Foster collaborative relationships with formal and informal educational
organizations and agencies to provide opportunities for community members to meet,
connect, and learn together.
• GOAL 6: DIVERSE AND VIBRANT ECONOMY
OBJECTIVE 2. Review and revise County policies and regulations to support business
investment in Orange County.
RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends that the Board receive the presentation
and provide any comments and questions.
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ORANGE COUNTY
Orange County
..
LAND USE PLAN Fact Book
Guiding Our Future 2050 February 2024
` y
February 2026 (updated)
Age of Orange County's Total Population
PercentageAge Estimated Estimated
L d& Population 2019 Population 2024 Change
Under 5 years 6,604 6,101 -7.62%
5 to 9 years 8,055 7,612 -5.50%
10 to 14 years 8,614 8,701 1.01%
15 to 19 years 13,943 15,847 13.66%
20 to 24 years 17,594 16,984 -3.47%
25 to 34 years 17,957 17,546 -2.29%
35 to 44 years 16,674 17,073 2.39%
45 to 54 years 18,481 18,231 -1 .35%
55 to 59 years 8,612 8,897 3.31%
60 to 64 years 8,899 8,589 -3.48%
65 to 74 years 12,411 14,848 19.64%
75 to 84 years 5,053 7,297 44.41%
85 years and over 1,939 1,952 0.67%
Total Population 144,836 149,678 3.34%
Data Source:American Community Survey 2019 (2015-2019 5-year) Estimates,American Community Survey 2024 (2020-2024 5-year) Estimates
P
Orange County's Po ulation Distribution '
• This table shows Orange e Population Percentage of Total Oran
P 9 9
Co u nty's population by (2024) County Population
jurisdiction and the Chapel Hill** 61,827 40.2%
percentage of Orange Unincorporated County* 55,786 36.3%
Count 's total o ulation. 21,494 14
y p p Carrboro .0/
Hillsborough 10,334 6.7%
• About 40% of Orange Mebane** 4,169 2.7%
County"s po ulation lives Durham** 146 0.1%
in Chapel Hill followed Total 153,756 100.0%
b poximatel 36%
Y approximately Y Unincorporated Orange County means the areas in Orange
who live in County but outside of municipalities, including Carrboro,
unincorporated Orange Chapel Hill, Durham, Hillsborough, and Mebane. This includes
County. the extraterritorial jurisdictions (ETJ) of the towns.
"Portion within Orange County geographic limits
Data Source:OSBM State Demographer, 2024 Certified Population Estimates
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
(CDC) Social Vulnerability Index
The CDC Social Vulnerability Racial Ethnic Minority
Index (CDC SVI) can be used Socioeconomic Status Status
to examine the social Below 150% Poverty Hispanic or Latino (of any race)
vulnerability of Orange County Housing Cost Burden Black or African American*
using 16 factors from No High School Diploma Asian*
4 key themes. No Health Insurance Native Hawaiian or Pacific
Unemployed Islander*
Two or more Races*
Housing Type and Other Races*
Census tracts are ranked by Transportation *Not Hispanic or Latino
percentile social vulnerability, Multi-Unit Structures
with 0% being the least Mobile Homes Household Characteristics
vulnerable and 100% beingthe Crowding (more people than
rooms in a home) Aged 65 & Older
most vulnerable. No Vehicle Aged 17 & Younger
Group Quarters (e.g., college Single-Parent Households
dormitories, nursing homes, English Language Proficiency
correctional institutions)
10
CDC SVI : Overall
:5.
McDade Caldwell
u
ceda,Grnve
• Across all factors, census Schley
tracts in the northwest
portion of the County
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• Other areas include = 6�ackwood
I
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cllnP> 1+��� Index,Overall(2022)
south of 1 -40. `a' ande
ca , Social Vulnerability Index,2022'
►I 1
wh,;e cross CARRRORO is' Overall
0-25%(bottom 41hy
26-50%
_ 51-75%
M 76-100%(mp 4th)
Municipal Planning
Junsdiclion w
Data Source:Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Social Vulnerability Index JiJ 1 2 "'
Annexations �=
M[6ad. Caldwell
• 3,551 acres have been da
annexed since 2004. •
• 421 acres have been annexed +
by Chapel Hill.
MN E
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209 acres have been annexed 5tatePa'" 1
• an� HILL SHORO L�GH
by Carrboro. o
1,039 acres have been annexed B°ckh°,n �iJ5Ity�R
by Hillsborough. IVa
- ® bI1NHAh[
• 1,858 acres have been annexed
by Mebane.
-. Tx �Eu6ank
• 24 acres have been annexed by Wy CHAPELIIILL Annexations
calv�nde ` r Orange County
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ue 501
Park Land and Open Space
Annexations
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-2010-2019
_2020-2025
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HousingUnits 13
Orange County Housing Unit Breakdown
Mebane Durham
Hillsborough 1,503 (27) 27 (0.04%)
• There are a total of 4,522 (7%)� 1
62,858 housing units
in Orange County. Carrboro
10,189 (16%)— Chapel Hill
The greatest number _22,171(35%)
of housing units are
located in
unincorporated
Orange County,
followed by Chapel
Hill.
Unincorporated*�
Orange County
24,446(39%)
Data Source:American Community Survey 2024 (2020-2024 5-year) Estimates
Housing Cost Burden
for Homeowners M°aP Old-l
� l. kn Schley
[I rrtiigr lii �,,ti
Based on Census data, Y 1
this map shows monthly
owner costs as a
� � r Illr.I.tili(]R01g
percentage of household f
Esc
Bic �� F:�i� I}1 II II 1\1
`' ;Housing Cost Burden for
income. ! Homeowners:selected
` m Monthly Owner Costs as
" o,..wa�" a Percentage of
Housing cost burden is Household Income—
__]orange county
C,Evh ks\ Railroad
defined as spending _�\I O Municipal Planning
c�`�`:r Jurisdiction
Peirce- FHAPL�LyHILL
more than 3 0% o f ae ';l Zecte of househcosts
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,* selected vests are>3090 of
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:., C�i°,°i-is
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2°.°1-25
>25
-----___--_ _ No Data Available
-a a
Data Source:American Community Survey 2024 (2020-2024 5-year) Estimates ( 4 ®
0 2 3 N
Housing Cost Burden - - - -- 15 --
for Renters
Caldwell
e
fi
Based on Census data, this J �1
map shows gross rent as a
M EBAN E
percentage of household
IIILLSRU RO CIGH
70
income• .ItY oURIIAA1
The darker orange areas r
Housing Cost Burden for
identify census tracts where g® RenPectentagerofsH ustas a
ehold
Income
more renters may be cost sEua k, DOrange County
O Municipal Planning
=.r Jurisdiction
burdened. CHAPEL HILL
e�i�a�de ra T Railroad
� 8 Percent of renters where rent is
_ >30%of household income
c ARR 130R0 is .�, 00-15
0 15.01-40
eoi 040,01-50
M 50.01-60
60.01-75
n 75
Data Available N 1
Data Source:American Community Survey 2024 (2020-2024 5-year) Estimates
° 1 2 3 N
16
The following slides are not included
in the Fact Book update.
Current Status of Orang
County Housing Supply �
& Attainability
17
Housingin January 2026 Survey of County & Municipal Planning Departments:
• 11,365 new residential units approved on plans in Orange County
• Does NOT include residences that have been approved and finalized in recent years
• 3,850 Units Under Construction, mostly in Chapel Hill and Hillsborough
• 3,189 Multifamily Units
• 413 Townhomes
• 248 Single-Family Homes
• 7,515 Approved but Unbuilt Residential Units
• 4,995 Multifamily Units
• 1,213 Townhomes
• 1,307 Single-Family Homes
• 37 units (11 %) are restricted as "affordable"
HousingAvailabilityin Orange County: 18
Town of Chapel Hill Study
Staff Compared Survey Results to Housing Analysis From
• Chapel Hill's 2021 "Projected Housing Needs 2020 - 2040" Study, as prepared
by Business Street
• Anticipates Growth of 2% in Town Chapel Hill
• Fact Book anticipates linear annual growth rate of 1 % throughout Orange
County, except for Mebane, based upon US Census data
Jurisdiction 2017 2040 2017 2024 2040 Annual
Population Population Households Households Households Growth Rate
Chapel Hill 65,529 83,235 20,869 N/A 31 ,074 2%
Chapel Hill —
Fact Book N/A 70,554 N/A 27,856 N/A 5%
HousingAvailabilityin Orange County: IBC
Chamber Foundation Study
Staff Compared Survey Results to Housing Analysis From
• NC Chamber Foundation's 2024 "Housing Supply Gap Analysis", as analyzed by Bowen
National Research
• The analysis is statewide but provides a Housing Supply Gap Analysis for each county. For
Orange County, the study identified a 2029 need for
• 7,557 new rental units, 4,467 of which need to be "affordable" (defined as <80% of the Area Median Income)
• 6,312 new for-sale home, 305 of which need to be "affordable"
• Assuming that all multifamily units and one-third of townhomes units will be rentals, the
recent survey identifies that Orange County is providing:
• 8,726 new rental units
• 2,639 new for-sale homes
752 units are restricted as "affordable"
HousingAvailabilityin Orange County: 20
Triangle Community Foundation Study
Staff Compared Survey Results to Housing Analysis From
• Triangle Community Foundation's 2025 "Orange County, North Carolina Affordable Housing Market Data",
as analyzed by Balance Community Advisors
• The analysis is derived from a regional "snapshot" of Housing Affordability focusing on cost burdened
households and availability of housing types and stock at all price points.
• For Orange County, the study identified a 2025 need for
• 9,555 units (new and existing) for"low-income" residents (defined as <50% of the Area Median Income)
• 17% of homeowners, and 64%of low-income homeowners, are "cost-burdened"
• 45% of renters, and 71% of low-income renters, are "cost-burdened"
• Assuming that all multifamily units and one-third of townhomes units will be rentals, the recent survey
identifies that Orange County is providing:
• 8,726 new rental units
2,639 new for-sale homes
752 units are restricted as "affordable"
Approved Residential Plans & Perm its, 21
Orange County, February2026
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Mebane Orange County
■Multifamily 104 6,988 1,092 0 0
kLTownhome 0 730 453 443 0
Single-Family 108 9 316 1,000 122
As reported on this graph,"Orange County" represents the planning jurisdiction of unincorporated Orange County
Approved Residential Units Not Yet Built2in
Orange County, February2026
Approved Residential Plans & Permits
122, 1% `212,2%
1,443, 13 0
1,861, 16% ,
7,727, 68%
■Carrboro ■ Chapel Hill ■ Hillsborough ■ Mebane ■ Orange County
As reported on these charts,"Orange County"represents the planning jurisdiction of unincorporated Orange County
Approved Residential Units Not Yet Built3in
Orange County, February2026
Approved Residential Units Not Yet Built Approved Residential Plans & Permits
111,2%. 212, 3% 122, 1%, `212, 2%
1,443, 13%
1,443, 19%
1 ,1,206, 16% ,861, 16%
4,543, 60%
-q�w
■ oro ■Chapel Hill ■ Hillsborough ■ Mebane ■ Orange County
■Carrboro ■ Chapel Hill ■ Hillsborough ■ Mebane ■ Orange County
As reported on these charts,"Orange County"represents the planning jurisdiction of unincorporated Orange County