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Agenda 06-03-2025; 8-j - Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance – Approval and Certification of 2025 Report
1 ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: June 3, 2025 Action Agenda Item No. 8-j SUBJECT: Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance —Approval and Certification of 2025 Report DEPARTMENT: Planning and Inspections ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: 1. 2025 SAPFOTAC Annual Report Perdita Holtz, Deputy Director, 919-245- 2. Student Projection Charts 2578 Cy Stober, Director, 919-245-2592 PURPOSE: To approve and certify the 2025 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) Report. BACKGROUND: At the February 4, 2025 Board of County Commissioners' Business meeting, the Board approved the November 15, 2024 actual membership and capacity numbers for both Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS) and Orange County Schools (OCS). Additional approvals/certifications, as outlined in the table below, are required by the SAPFO partners' MOUs (Memoranda of Understanding). At the April 15, 2025 BOCC Business meeting, the Board received for transmittal the draft 2025 SAPFOTAC Report. A letter and the Executive Summary of the Report were sent to all SAPFO partners advising them of the availability of the draft Report and inviting comments. Comments were requested for submission by May 16, 2025. No comments were provided to Orange County by the partners. The exact pages of the 2025 SAPFOTAC Report the BOCC will be acknowledging and certifying are listed below. The context (i.e. definitions and standards) of the various SAPFO elements precedes the data to be certified and is within the full report. In future years, the statistical modeling that informs the growth projections and capacity needs of the schools within Annual SAPFOTAC Report is going to be replaced by the methodology used by Carolina Demography, reflected in the authorization to change the student projection methodology approved by the BOCC at its April 15, 2025 Business Meeting. 2 Page in Element SAPFOTAC Certification to be made by BOCC Report Building Capacity with Capital Building capacity and current year Investment Plan (CIP) changes 12 through 17 membership for OCS and CHCCS were approved at the December 4, 2023 (Change from previous ear meeting. Student Membership Projection Methodology (No change from previous year; in Certification that the average of 5 models the future, the methodology 20 employed by Carolina will be used, as noted in #3 on page 20 Demography will be used, as approved at the April 15, 2025 BOCC meeting) Student Membership Projections ■ Orange County Elementary, Middle, and High Schools Student Projections (row that notes average only) (p. 36) 36 and 37 ■ Chapel Hill - Carrboro Elementary, Middle, and High Schools Student Projections (row that notes average (Change from previous ear only) p. 37 Student Membership Growth Rate ■ Orange County Elementary, Middle, and 38 High Schools ■ Chapel Hill - Carrboro Elementary, (Change from previous ear Middle, and High Schools Student/Housing Generation Rate ■ Orange County Elementary, Middle, and 42High Schools ■ Chapel Hill - Carrboro Elementary, No change from previous ear Middle, and High Schools FINANCIAL IMPACT: Current 10-year student growth projections show no future capacity needs for additional schools in the CHCCS District and OCS District. ALIGNMENT WITH STRATEGIC PLAN: This item supports: • GOAL 5: PUBLIC EDUCATION/LEARNING COMMUNITY OBJECTIVE 5. Invest in and implement a plan that supports schools operational and facility funding needs. RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends the Board approve the 2025 SAPFOTAC Annual Report and certify those aspects of the Report detailed in the summary table above. Attachment 1 3 ORANGE COUNTY, NC SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE PREPARED BY A STAFF COMMITTEE: PLANNING DIRECTORS, SCHOOL REPRESENTATIVES, TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE (SAPFOTAC) (PURSUANT TO PROVISIONS OF A MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING ADOPTED IN 2002 & 2003) (ORDINANCES ADOPTED IN JULY 2003) Annual Report 2025 BASED ON NOVEMBER 2024 DATA) CERTIFIED BY THE BOCC ON XXX, 2025 4 Table of Contents 2025 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary.................................................................................................................i Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................x Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners......................................................................................xi Planning Directors/School Representatives Technical Advisory Committee......................................................xii I. Base Memorandum of Understanding..............................................................................................................1 A. Level of Service........................................................................................................................................1 B. Building Capacity and Membership........................................................................................................2 Attachment LB.10range County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2022-23).........................................................5 Attachment LB.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24)........................................................6 Attachment LB.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24)........................................................7 Attachment LB.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24)........................................................8 Attachment LB.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&H igh)(2023-24).....................................9 Attachment LB.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24)...................................10 Attachment LB.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24)...................................11 Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2024-25)......................................................12 Attachment LB.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2024-25)......................................................13 Attachment LB.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2024-25)......................................................14 Attachment LB.4 ChapelHill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2024-25)...................................15 Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2024-25)...................................16 Attachment LB.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2024-25)...................................17 C. Membership Date..................................................................................................................................18 II.Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System......................................................19 A. Capital Investment Plan(CIP)...............................................................................................................19 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology.......................................................................................20 Attachment I1.13.I—Student Membership Projection Descriptions......................................................................................................22 Attachment I1.13.2 —Student Membership Projection Models Perfonnance Analysis (2023-24)..................................................23 C. Student Membership Projections...........................................................................................................31 Attachment II.C.1 —Orange County Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2023-24)............................................34 Attachment II.C.2—Chapel Hill-Carrboro Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2023-24).................................35 Attachment II.C.3 —Orange County Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2024-25)............................................36 Attachment II.C.4—Chapel Hill-Carrboro Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2024-25).................................37 D. Student Membership Growth Rate........................................................................................................38 Attachment II.D.1 —Orange County and ChapelHill-Carrboro City Student Growth Rates(Chart dates from 2024-2034 based on 11/15/23 membership numbers)(2023-24)..............................................................................................................................40 Attachment II.D.2—Orange County and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Student Growth Rates(Chart dates from 2025-2035 based on 11/15/24 membership numbers)(2024-25)..............................................................................................................................41 E. Student/Housing Generation Rate........................................................................................................42 Attachment II.E.1 -Current Student Generation Rates(2015)............................................................................................................44 III. Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process....................................................45 A. Capital Investment Plan(CIP) (Process 1).............................................................................................45 Attachment III.A.1 —Process 1 Capital Improvement Plan...................................................................................................................46 B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS)�pdate (Process 2)..............................................................................................................................................47 Attachment IILB.1 —Process 2 Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS)Allocation.........................................................49 6 2025 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service.....................................................................(No Change)........Pg. I Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Elementary 105% 105% Middle 107% 107% High 110% 110% B. Building Capacity and Membership...................................(Change)..............Pg. 2 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Capacity* Membership Change from Capacity** Membership Change from Prior Year Prior Year Elementary 5315 4518 - 57 3453 2994 - 61 Middle 2993 2656 - 60 2396 1582 +3 High 1 3701 3958 - 16 1 2678 2369 -13 * Capacity has been updated to reflect the results of the Woolpert,Inc.study. ** Capacity has been updated to reflect use of NCDPI's capacity formulas. C. Membership Date—November 15.......................................(No Change)........Pg. 18 H. Annual Update to SAPFO System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP)............................................(No Change)........Pg. 19 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology.................(No Change*)......Pg. 20 The average of 3,5,and 10 year history/cohort survival,linear and arithmetic projection models. *See additional information in Executive Summary and Report C. Student Membership Projections.......................................(Change)..............Pg. 30 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2024-2025 School Year—Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2024-2025 in that given year. The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual whereas an"H" indicates the projection was high compared to the actual. Year Projection Made for 2024-2025 Membership Actual 2024 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 Membership Elementary 4518 5489 H971 4655 H137 4411 L107 4495 L23 4436 L82 Middle -2656 2917 H261 2671 H15 2581 L75 2631 L25 2669 H13 High 3958 4111 H153 3893 L65 3801 L157 3862 L96 3926 L32 i 7 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2024-2025 School Year—Orange County Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2024-2025 in that given year. The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual, whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) Year Projection Made for 2024-2025 Membership Actual 2024 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 Membership Elementary 2994 3378 H384 2962 L32 2948 L46 3044 H50 3011 H17 Middle 1582 1732 H150 1593 H11 1599 H17 1578 L4 1572 1-10 High 2369 2401 H32 2293 L76 2438 H164 2420 H51 2377 H8 D. Student Membership Growth Rate....................................(Change*)............Pg. 37 *See additional information in Executive Summary and Report Projected Average Annual Growth Rate Over Next 10 Years Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Year Projection 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2024- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2024- Made: 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Elementary -0.23% -0.88% -0.47% -1.14% -0.37% -0.02% -0.04% 0.26% -0.14% -0.10% Middle -1.50% -2.10% -1.77% -1.96% -1.24% -0.67% -0.72% -0.15% -0.44% -0.52% High -1.44% -2.15% -2.09% -1.83% -1.74% J -0.98% -1.06% 0.98% -0.91% -0.10% E. Student/ Housing Generation Rate ..................................(No Change*)......Pg. 40 *See additional information in Executive Summary and Report SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS (Based on future year Student Membership Projections) CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105%LOS standard (current LOS is 85.0%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase but remain negative over the next 10 years (average -0.37%% per year compared to an average of-1.99% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10- year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard (current LOS is 88.7%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease and remain negative over the next 10 years (average -1.24% compared to an average of-0.71%over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year projection period. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed the 110%LOS standard (current LOS is 106.9%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease and be negative over the next 10 years (average -1.74% compared to +0.61%over the past 10 years). ii 8 C. Projections are not showing a need to expand Carrboro High School from the initial capacity of 800 students to the ultimate capacity of 1,200 students in the 10-year projection period. ORANGE COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105%LOS standard (current LOS is 87.3%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase but remain negative over the next 10 years (average -0.10% compared to -0.82%over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10-year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard (current LOS is 68.9%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase but remain negative over the next 10 years (average -0.52% compared to -1.05% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year projection period. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed 110%LOS standard (current LOS is 87.7%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase but remain negative over the next 10 years (average -0.10% compared to -0.52% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for additional High School in the 10-year projection period. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION Pre-K Students With the 2023 Woolpert, Inc. study complete, the capacity numbers in both school districts have been updated to account for Pre-K students. The capacity numbers included in this report allocate space for Pre-K classrooms. Pre-K students for each district is as follows: Chapel HM-Carrboro County School Year Number of Students Number of Students 2019-20 267 144 2020-21 208 (-59) 86 (-58) 2021-22 222 (+14) 125 (+39) 2022-23 295 (+73) 101 (-24) 2023-24 250 (-45) 91 -10 2024-25 256 (+6) 87 (-4) iii 9 Charter and Private Schools Currently, there are two Charter Schools located in the Town of Hillsborough. Charter student membership for these two schools is as follows: 4MMM � I . I • I I I oil School Year Number of Students Number of Students 2017-18 542 326 2018-19 655 (+113) 355 (+29) 2019-20 715 (+60) 365 (+10) 2020-21 747 (+32) 2021-22 751 (+4) 365* 2022-23 777 (+26) 2023-24 805 (+28) 362 (-3) 2024-25 829 (+24) 381 +19 *The Expedition School reached full capacity of 365 students in 2019-20 ^Reallocated space to accommodate more students. Charter and private schools are not included as part of the SAPFO Annual Report and, as a result, their membership and capacity numbers are not included in future projections. SAPFO projections are used for projecting only public school capacity/construction needs. However, the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee does monitor charter and private schools and their effect on student enrollment in both school districts. If a charter or private school were to close and a spike were to be realized in school enrollment, the student projections would likely accelerate the need for additional capacity in future years,but likely still within an appropriate time for CIP planning. Charter Schools are also monitored by the Department of Public Instruction (DPI) which provides pupil information, based on data received from Charter Schools located in Orange County, to the County for funding purposes. The County budgeted for charter schools as follows: Chapel vIange County City Schools Fiscal Year Number of Students Number of Students 2017-18 162 617 2018-19 155 (-7) 769 (+152) 2019-20 169 (+14) 843 (+74) 2020-21 166 (-3) 885 (+42) 2021-22 156 (-10) 919 (+34) 2022-23 205 (+49) 951 (+32) 2023-24 210 (+5) 999 (+48) 2024-25 231 (+21) 1091 (+92) Although charter and private schools numbers are not collected for SAPFO purposes, impacts due to enrollment at these schools are accounted for in SAPFO process with the annual reporting of student membership and growth rates contained in the 10-year student projections. Future Residential Development iv 10 Proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. The Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) test is conducted during the approval process at a certain stage. Once students are enrolled in a school year, through annual reporting of student membership numbers, 10-year student projections can be updated to display future capacity needs in time to efficiently plan for future school capacity/construction requests. The SAPFOTAC continues to monitor and evaluate the demand and growth of residential development throughout Orange County as well as its affect on student membership rates. Below is a list of larger residential projects and the potential number of students from these projects which may have an impact in the short term. Please note, the City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO agreement and therefore does not require that CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools) be issued prior to development approvals. Proposed Expected Number ResidentialProject MiRemaining Elementary: 19 Jade Creek Carrboro 72 Middle: 13 High: 12 Elementary: 11 Newbury Carrboro 36 Middle: 7 High: 6 Elementary: 44 Weavers Grove Chapel Hill 243 Middle: 18 High: 20 Elementary: 28 Park Apartments Chapel Hill 259 Middle: 10 High: 13 Trinity Court Affordable Elementary: 7 Housing Chapel Hill 54 Middle: 3 High: 4 Elementary: 9 Columbia Street Annex Chapel Hill 59 Middle: 3 High: 3 Elementary: 21 101-111 Erwin Road Chapel Hill 52 Middle: 10 High: 9 Elementary: 21 710 N Estes Townhomes Chapel Hill 107 Middle: 10 High: 9 Elementary: 12 Stanat's Place Chapel Hill 47 Middle: 4 High: 4 Elementary: 21 Aura Blue Hill Chapel Hill 301 Middle: 8 High: 11 Elementary: 52 Aura Chapel Hill Chapel Hill 418 Middle: 18 High: 22 v 11 It,r Vsdiction oPr_VExpected Number Residential Projeapo •d lUn of Remainin Elementary: 35 Chapel Hill Crossing Chapel Hill 314 Middle: 13 Hi h: 16 Elementary: 35 Gateway Chapel Hill 316 Middle: 13 High: 16 Elementary: 5 Jay St Apartments Chapel Hill 48 Middle: 2 High: 2 Elementary: 51 Hillmont Chapel Hill 466 Middle: 19 High: 23 Elementary: 32 South Creek Chapel Hill 269 Middle: 12 High: 14 Elementary: 13 Homestead Gardens Chapel Hill 92 Middle: 5 High: 5 Elementary: 24 Tri-Point Chapel Hill 119 Middle: 8 High: 8 Elementary: 31 Tarheel Lodging Chapel Hill 283 Middle: 11 High: 14 Elementary: 30 Millennium Chapel Hill Chapel Hill 274 Middle: 11 High: 14 Elementary: 10 South Creek Phase I Chapel Hill 92 Middle: 4 High: 5 Elementary: 84 Middle: 45 High: 57 (exact count of unit types still to be built is Collins Ridge Phase 1 Hillsborough 631 unavailable,therefore calculating expected number of students still expected is not possible. These estimates are from last year's count of 672 units remaining) Elementary: 22 Persimmon at Cates Creek Hillsborough 346 Middle: 11 High: 15 Elementary: 5 East Village at Meadowlands Hillsborough 76 Middle: 3 High: 4 V1 12 —EWurisdiction Total Units Expected Number Proposed j le Residential Proj Remaining M of Elementary: 48 Waterstone South Hillsborough 655 Middle: 22 Hi h:33 Elementary: 8 Bowman Place Mebane 37 Middle: 4 High: 4 Tupelo Junction Mebane 123 Elementary: 27 Middle: 12Hi h: 15 Elementary: 56 Tupelo North Mebane 207 Middle: 27 High: 35 Elementary: 110 Oakwood Subdivision Mebane 409 Middle: 53 High: 70 Elementary: 3 Oak Grove Trails Mebane 51 Middle: 2 High: 2 Elementary: 2 Meadows Mebane 1 1 Middle: 1 High: 1 Elementary: 8 Meadowstone Mebane 147 Middle: 5 High: 6 Elementary: 24 Saddle Club Subdivision Mebane 110 Middle: 11 High: 13 Elementary: 4 Mebane Village Townes Mebane 69 Middle: 3 High: 3 Elementary: 5 Bowman Road Townhomes Mebane 89 Middle: 4 High: 4 Elementary: 23 NACC Subdivision Mebane 106 Middle: 11 High: 13 Orange County Elementary: 10 Edenview (OCS) '8 Middle: 5 High: 7 Orange County Elementary: 4 Stonewall (OCS) 18 Middle: 2 High: 2 Orange County Elementary: 4 Williams Glen (OCS) 17 Middle: 2 High: 2 Vii 13 The SAPFOTAC also monitors projects that have not reached the stage of the development process when CAPS are issued. Therefore, student estimates are not yet available. The following is a list of projects for which rezoning has been approved: Residential Project Jurisdiction Expected Number of Units St Paul Village Chapel Hill 350 Link Apartments at 101 E Rosemary Chapel Hill 150 Longleaf Trace Chapel Hill 42-60 South Creek(Phase 3) Chapel Hill 56-76 Single-Family 249-386 Multi-Family Gateway/Meridian (Phase 2 Chapel Hill 72 Barbee Chapel Apartments Chapel Hill 262-350 School Renovation and Expansion The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) student projections illustrate when the adopted level of service capacities are forecasted to be met and/or exceeded in anticipation of Capital Improvement Plan (CIP)planning and the construction of a new school. Both school districts continue planning efforts to renovate and expand existing facilities to address school capacity needs in a more feasible way. Additional capacity resulting from school renovations and expansions will be added to the projection models in stages, once funding is approved, versus the addition of greater capacity when a new school is constructed and completed. The renovation and expansion to existing facilities may delay construction of new schools further into the future, depending on how and how much capacity is added to the system. Decisions on the timing of reconstruction (i.e. capacity additions)funding would be directly linked to the SAPFO model at the appropriate time. 2023 Woolpert Facilities Capital Needs Assessment, Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) Student Projections, Future Student Projection Methodology, and Student Generation Rates In 2023, Orange County contracted with Woolpert, Inc. to conduct a Facilities Capital Needs Assessment on all schools within both districts. Part of the assessment included calculating capacity at each school. At the Elementary level, two capacity calculations were completed: one that excluded space used by Pre-K programs and one that did not account for Pre-K usage. The capacity numbers reported and used in the 2025 SAPFOTAC Report take space allocations for Pre-K students into account. Also in 2023, each school district contracted with NC State's Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd)to complete a"Land Use Study" and student membership projections. OREd's projection model includes a forecasting component whereas the SAPFO model is mathematically based using historical data and accepted projection methodologies. In December 2024, the Board of County Commissioners authorized notification to the parties of the SAPFO MOU that the student projection methodology will be changed to either the one employed by (OREd) or Carolina Demography. The SAPFO partners were invited to comment on this update and the Board of Commissioners is expected to make a final decision in April 2025 on which methodology is used moving forward. Either projection methodology is expected to use a student generation rate determined by the projection professionals It is anticipated the SAPFOTAC will evaluate the student generation rates used by the selected professionals for inclusion into the CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools)process. viii 14 ix 15 Orange County, NC School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Introduction The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) and its Memorandum of Understanding are ordinances and agreements, respectively. Supporting documents are anticipated to be dynamic to incorporate the annual changing conditions of membership, capacity and student projections that may affect School Capital Investment Plan (CIP)timing. This formal annual report will be forthcoming to all of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners each year as new information is available. This updated information is used in the schools capital needs process of the Capital Investment Plan(Process 1) and within elements of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) spreadsheet system(Process 2). This report and any comments from the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners will be considered in the first half of each year by the Board of County Commissioners at a regular or special meeting. The various elements of the report are then "certified" and formally considered in the process of the upcoming Capital Investment Plan. The Certificate of Adequate Public Schools system is updated after November 15 when data is received from the school districts with actual membership and pre-certified capacity(i.e. CIP capacity or prior "joint action" capacity changes). The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance and Memorandum of Understanding have dynamic aspects. The derivation of the baseline and update to the variables will continue in the future as a variety of school related issues are fine-tuned by technical and policy groups. The primary facet of this report includes the creation of mathematical projections for student memberships by school levels (Elementary, Middle and High) and by School Districts (Chapel Hill/Carrboro and Orange County). This information is found in Section II, Subsections B, C, D, and E. In summary, this report serves as an update to the dynamic conditions of student membership and school capacity which affect future projected needs considered in Capital Investment Planning. Interested parties may make their comments known to the Board of County Commissioners prior to their review of the report and school CIP completion or ask questions of the SAPFOTAC members. x 16 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners Annual Report as Outlined in Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Memorandum of Understanding (SAPFO MOU) Section Id Respectfully Submitted to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District SAPFO SAPFO Board of County Commissioners Board of County Commissioners Carrboro Town Council Hillsborough Board of Commissioners Chapel Hill Town Council Chapel Hill-Carrboro School Board Orange County School Board xi 17 Planning Directors/School Representatives Technical Advisory Committee (aka SAPFOTAC) Town of Carrboro Tina Moon, Interim Planning Director 301 West Main Street Carrboro, NC 27510 Town of Chapel Hill Britany Waddell, Planning Director 405 Martin Luther King, Jr. Blvd. Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514 Town of Hillsborough Sharman Campbell, Planning and Economic Development Manager P.O. Box 429 Hillsborough, NC 27278 Orange County Cy Stober, Planning Director Perdita Holtz, Deputy Director, Long-Range Planning Kirk Vaughn, Budget Director 131 W. Margaret Lane P.O. Box 8181 Hillsborough, NC 27278 Orange County School District Danielle Jones, Superintendent 200 E. King Street Hillsborough, NC 27278 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Nyah Hamlett, Superintendent 750 Merritt Mill Road Chapel Hill, NC 2751 Xii 18 Section I I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—Change can only be effectuated by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)by all SAPFO partners. 2. Definition —Level of Service (LOS)means the amount (level) of students that can be accommodated (serviced) at a certain school system grade group [i.e., Elementary level (K-5), Middle Level(6-8), High School Level(9-12)]. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Elementary Middle High School Elementary Middle High School 105% 107% 110% 105% 107% 110% 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District These standards are acceptable at this time. These standards are acceptable at this time. 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District No change from above standard. No change from above standard. 1 19 Section II B. Building Capacity and Membership 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change— The Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)will receive requested changes that are CIP related and adopted in the prior year. CIP capacity changes will be updated along with actual membership received in November of each year. Other changes will be sent to a `Joint Action Committee' of the BOCC and Board of Education, as noted in the MOU, who will make recommendations and forward changes (on the specific forms with justification) to the full Board of County Commissioners for review and action. These non-CIP changes would be updated in the upcoming November CAPS system recalibration and included in the SAPFOTAC report. 2. Definition —For purposes of this Memorandum, "building capacity" will be determined by reference to State guidelines and the School District guidelines (consistent with CIP School Construction Guidelines/policies developed by the School District and the Board of County Commissioners) and will be determined by a joint action of the School Board and the Orange County Board of Commissioners. As used herein the term"building capacity" refers to permanent buildings. Mobile classrooms and other temporary student accommodating classroom spaces are not permanent buildings and may not be counted in determining the school districts building capacity. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The original certified capacity for each of the The original certified capacity for each of the schools was certified by the respective schools was certified by the respective superintendent and incorporated in the superintendent and incorporated in the initialization of the CAPS system(Chapel initialization of the CAPS system(Orange Hill- Carrboro School District April 29, 2002 County School District April 30, 2002 - Base) -Base) Capacity changes were made each year as Capacity changes were made each year as follows: follows: 2 20 Section II 2003: Increase of 619 at Rashkis Elementary. 2003: No net increase in capacity at 2004: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or Elementary level. No changes at Middle High School levels. School level. Increase of 1,000 at Cedar Ridge 2005: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School. High School levels. 2004: No net increase in capacity at 2006: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or Elementary level. No changes at Middle or High School levels. High School levels. 2007: An increase of 800 at the High School 2005: An increase in capacity of 100 at level with the opening of Carrboro High Hillsborough Elementary with the completion School. of renovations. 2008: An increase of 323 at the Elementary 2006: An increase in capacity of 700 at the School level due to the opening of Morris Middle School level with the completion of Grove Elementary School and the Gravelly Hill Middle School and an increase of implementation of the 1:21 class size ratio in 15 at the High School level with the temporary grades K-3 location of Partnership Academy Alternative 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or School. An increase of 2 at the Elementary High School levels. level due to a change in the capacity calculation 2010: An increase in capacity of 40 students for each grade at each school. at the High School level with Phoenix 2007: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or Academy High School becoming official high High School levels. school within the district 2008: A decrease of 228 at the Elementary 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or School level due to the implementation of the High School levels. 1:21 class size ratio in grades K-3 and an 2012: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or increase of 25 at the High School level with the High School levels. completion of the new Partnership Academy 2013: An increase in capacity of 585 students Alternative School. due to the opening of Northside Elementary 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or School. High School levels. 2014: An increase in capacity of 104 students 2010: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or due to the opening of the Culbreth Middle High School levels. School addition. 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 3 21 Section II 2015:No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2012: No changes at Elementary or Middle High School levels. School levels. A decrease of 119 at High 2016:No changes at Elementary, Middle, or School level as a result of a N.C.Department of High School levels. Public Instruction(DPI) study. 2017: A decrease in capacity of 165 students 2013: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or due to the implementation of the 1:20 class High School levels. size ratio in grades K-3. 2014: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2018: No changes at Elementary, Middle or High School levels. High School levels. 2015:No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2019:No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. High School levels. 2016:No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2020: Increase of 100 seats at the High High School levels. School level due to renovations at Chapel Hill 2017: A decrease in capacity of 333 students High School. No changes at Elementary or due to the implementation of the 1:20 class size Middle School levels. ratio in grades K-3. 2021:No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2018: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. High School levels. 2022:No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2019: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. High School levels. 2023: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2020: No changes at the Elementary, Middle, High School levels. or High School levels. 2024: The Woolpert, Inc. Facility Condition 2021: Increase of 500 seats at the High School Assessment, which included updated capacity level due to the Cedar Ridge High School calculations, was accepted. Additionally, addition. No changes at Elementary or Middle space allocated to Pre-K classrooms has been School levels. accounted for. The updates resulted in the 2022:No changes at Elementary, Middle, or following capacity changes: High School levels. • Elementary: -349 2023:No changes at Elementary, Middle, or • Middle: +49 High School levels. • High: -274 2024: Capacity was calculated using NCDPI capacity formulas. Additionally, space allocated to Pre-K classrooms has been 4 22 Section II Attachment I.B.10range County School Capacity (Elementary, Middle, & High) (2022-23) (Page 1 of 3) accounted for. The updates resulted in the following capacity changes: • Elementary: +68 • Middle: +129 • High: -237 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a system to calculate capacity. Any changes system to calculate capacity. Any changes year year to year will be monitored, reviewed, and to year will be monitored, reviewed, and recorded by the SAPFOTAC on approved recorded by the SAPFOTAC on approved forms distributed to SAPFO partners and forms distributed to SAPFO partners and certified upon approval by the Board of certified upon approval by the Board of County County Commissioners each year. The Commissioners each year. The requested 2024- requested 2024-2025 capacity is noted on 2025 capacity is noted on Attachment I.B.3 Attachment I.B.4 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Accept school capacities at all levels, as Accept school capacities at all levels, as reported by CHCCS and shown in Attachment reported by OCS and shown in Attachment I.B.4. I.B.3. 5 23 Section II Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity (Elementary, Middle, & High) (2023-24) (Page 1 of 3) v rtcu.-auj D-U 1 1 r{6-9)' )9)1) pd 3 Attachment 1 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form IScRool District: Orange uountyScnools 13APFU CAPS Year: t), apace y anu IvIerriDersnipm a ov er-15,21313 I i 2021-2022 2022-2023 I Elcusentairy Square Justification (referenced Cnpacity/Level School Fcot Capacity Capacity Capacity Cnpacity Capacity school yen I-) ofse"Ice Central 52,492 455 428 428 428 428 291 08.07 l;llond Checks 64,316 497 455 455 455 455 526 115.6% Grndy Brown 74,016 544 490 490 490 490 406 02.9 Ilillsborough 51,106 471 420 420 420 420 437 104.0% New Hope 100,164 586 526 526 526 526 527 100.2% Pathways 85,282 576 540 540 540 540 312 57.0% Rivcrl'm'k 70,812 565 502 502 502 502 556 110.8°/ '1'otol 498 188 3,6941 3,3611 3,3611 3,361 3,361 3'U"51 90•9 Speclal Note(s): 1.Car the November 15,2002 base year tete board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part ol'the School Facilities Tusk Farce review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capneilies will remain erfcclive until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is cortified by the BOCC. ,tustificati0n: City anti mherstrip ce Itieatlon: r le Su ri tendent PUCC Chair Dale 6 24 Section II Attachment LB.1 Orange County School Capacity (Elementary, Middle, & High) (2023-24) (Page 2 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School Dlstrlct: Orange County Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 15 2023-November 14 2024 CapacIty and Membership Submittal Dale: November 15 2023 2019-20202020-2021 .II 2023-2024 Jus Requested RLquested Requested Requested Requested r lifivAlion Capneity/Level ree Capacity Capacity caluicily Capacity Capacity 1.0 SUItUtIl YCIIL') 01'service A.L.Slanback 136,11011 7417 7,10 710 740 740 633 66.6% Orange Middle 1117,62U 726. 726 726 726 726 535 73.7% ti'llwIlyHill 123,0110 700 7110 700 700 700 411 58.7% Total 1 366,(,2()l 2,1661 2,16(.1 2.16(,j 2,16(,l 2.1661 1579 72 9% Special Note(s): I.For the November 1 S,2002 Base yeasr 111e bolonl nccepited Itic superintendent-ccrtifcd capacilics as pzio orihe Schnol Fncili6es Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Represetriative.'I'eehnicul Advisory Committee Itcpurt. These capacities will rcmnin cfleclivc until changed by(1)the School CII'or(2)an muendcd version oFthis.Form thnl is certified by the 13OCC. Justification- sett f mbershi Certification: Sup intendant D le BOG hair Date 7 25 Section II Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity (Elementary, Middle, & High) (2023-24) (Page 3 of 3) C1l1rlr�(c 3-Q I 1 '6'9 ) lalLl P3 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Orange County Schools SARFO CARS Year:November 15 2023-November 14 2024 lCapacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 15,2023 fligiLSV.11001 S11111111C 2019-202(1 2020-2021 I I 2023-2024 Feet CUPOCity CUPOCity CUP86ty Cap;lCity CRVIRCRY pie N '4010111 yell r) of Service Cednrltidge 206,900 1,000 1,01111 1,5011 1,5011 1,5110 1,117 74.57. Omnnge 213,509 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399 1„99 1,222 87.3% Partnership 6,600 40 40 40 40 4U 43 107.5% Total 427,009 2,4391 2,439 2,939 2,9391 2,9391 2,3821 81.0% Special Note(s): 1.Far the November 15,2002 base year Ilse board accepted[lie superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facililies'l-ask Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain enee[ive until changed by(1)the School CII'or(2)an amended version orchis form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: Capacity anti-MaInbership Certification: rc zj Z Sup nt ndent Dae CC Chaff D g 26 Section II Attachment LB.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2023-24) (Page 1 of 3) U i ttL� IAIIII'a3 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, membership and Change Request Form School District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 15,2023-November 14 2024 Capacity and Mernbershle Submltial Date: November 15 2023 Carrboro 60,832 518 518 518 518 518 488 94.2%a Ephesus 66,952 436 436 436 436 476 355 81.4% Estes hills 56,299 516 516 516 516 516 339 65.7% FP Graham 66,689 522 522 522 522 522 509 97.5% Glenwood 50,764 412 412 412 412 412 411 99.8% McDougle 98,000 548 548 54B 548 548 466 85.0% Morris Grove 90,221 568 568 568 568 568 397 69.9% Northside 99,500 568 568 568 568 568 373 65.7% Rashkis 95,729 568. 568 568 568 568 425 74.8% Scroggs 90,980 558 558 558 558 558 382 68.5% Seawell 52 896 450 450 450 450 450 430 95.6% Total 1 828,862 5,6641 5,6641 5,6641 5,6641 5,6641 4,5751 80.8% Special Nate(s):I.For the November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as pan of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Pinnners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: Capacity d Ihership Certification: `\ r i Lp 'L- / Z uorinl ndent v Rale B,VCC Chale,,/ Da e 9 27 Section II Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2023-24) (Page 2 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form Sahoal District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro Gity Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 35,2023-November 14,2024 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 15,2023 Culbrelh 122,467 774 774 774 774 774 674 87 McDouglc 136,221 732 732 732 732 732 708 97 Phillips 109,498 706 706 706 706 706 383 83 Smith 128,764 732 732 732 732 732 751 103 Total 1 496,9501 2,9441 2,9441 2,9441 2,9441 2,9441 2,7161 92.3 Spectal Note(n)r 1. For Ilre November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part or the School Facilities Task Farce review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the©OCC. Justification: Capacity aj34Membership Certification: IU'I23 S�rr erinke. cleat Datta C Chyt. Bate 10 28 Section II Attachment LB.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2023-24) (Page 3 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form ISchool,Districl: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schoo s Year;November15, -2=776vember 14,2024 apac ty ancl Membership u m a a e: November 15,2023 Feet Carrboro 148,023 800 800 800 800 800 885 919° Chapel Hill 241,111 1,520 1,520 1,620 1,620 1,620 1,642 901% Past Chapel hill 259,869 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,412 93% Phoenix Acad, 5,207 40 40 40 40 40 35 88% Total 54,2101 3,9751 3,8751 1,9751 3,9751 3,9751 3.9741 100.0% Special Note(s)- 1. For the November 15,2002 base year Iho Board accepted the superiotendenbccrlilied capacities as part of the School Facilities"task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Coamiltee Report. These capacities wilt remain effective until clanged by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amearled version of this fomi that is certified by the BUM Justification: Ca a]h�c y a u-M nbershi Certification: 12 Superintend n# Date WGC Cham Date 11 29 Section II Attachment LB.3 Orange County School Capacity (Elementary, Middle, & High) (2024-25) (Page 1 of 3) aILA las Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance(SAPFO)Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District ran a ou Schools ]ZAP FO CAPS Year:November 15 2024-Novemberl4 2025 a as an em rs u m a s e: November 15,2024 1 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 Meinhership Percentage or Sellool red Capacity Capacity capacky Capac'Ity Calincily 11.01"alen School vear) OFS01--vice Central 52,492 428 428 428 428 438 267 61.0% (land Cheeks 64,316 455 455 455 455 476 514 108.0% Grady Brown 74,01(i 490 490 490 490 496 403 81.31/1 Hillsborough 51,106 420 420 420 420 463 437 94.4%, New Elope 100,164 526 526 526 526 553 527 94.6% Pathways S5,282 540 540 540 540 452 329 72.8% River Park 70,512 502 502 502 502 551 521 94.6% Tu 1498.1081 3 611 3.3611 33611 3.4291 2.9941 87.3% Special Hotels): 1.For the November 15,2002 base year the heard accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form thatis certified by the BOCC. Justification:Capacity update resulting from use of NCDPI Capacity Formulas Capacity and Membership Certification,- Jan ertification,Jan 17,2025 Superintendent Date B Chair ate 12 30 Section II Attachment LB.3 Orange County School Capacity (Elementary, Middle, & High) (2024-25) (Page 2 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance(SAPFO) Capacity,Membership and Change Request Form School District' Orange CountySchools SAPFOCAPSYear: o embert5 202 - ove Ca acit and'Membershi Submittal Date: November 15 2024 Middle School squill't. 21120-24121 2021-2022 2022-2(123 2023-2024 2024-2025 j"lificatlon Membership Per-rit.ge f Feet Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested 10.otnoleoo (referemed Capacity/Level A.L.Stanbook 136,000 740 740 740 740 544 649 76.9% Orange Middle 107,620 726 726 726 726 676 519 76.8% Gravelly Hill 123,000 700 700 700 700 775 414 63.4 retAl 3K6201 2.1661 2,1661 2,1661 2.1661 2.2951 813. Speelal Note(s): 1.For the November 15,2002 base year the beard accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as pan of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report, These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended versionof this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification:Capacity update resulting from use of MCPPI Capacity Formulas Capacity and Membership Certification: o.r�ai.r„ ,rr,aossreosrs>3 Jan 17,2025 Superintendent ItWC Cha' ate 13 31 Section II Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity (Elementary, Middle, & High) (2024-25) (Page 3 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance(SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: OranneCountv Schools SAPFU CAPS Year:November 15 2024-November 14 2025 CapacKV and MernbershID Submittal Date. November 15 2024 Square 2020-2021 i2024-2025 Justification 'MCMIXI-8111P 1'C1'M1tagC Of Iligh School F eet Reques(ed Requested Retlucsted Requesled Requested leoatnote# (referenced Capici0y/Level Copaci(y (,'It pacity capaci(y capacity Capacity school year) Df Service Cedar Ridge 206,900 1,000 1,500 1500 1,500 1,318 1,150 86.6% Orange 213,509 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,310 1,173 8915% Partnership 6,600 40 40 40 40 64 46 71.9% Total 427,0091 2.4391 2.9391 2.9391 2.9391 2.7021 80.8° Special Note(s):1,For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technicei Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended versionof this form that is certified by the BOCC. Change to Partnership Academy to reflect updated capacity for new facility(moved In SY23.24). Capacity and Membership Certification: Jan 17,2025 Superintendent Date "GC Chair D to 14 32 Section II Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2024-25) (Page 1 of 3) Attachment 1 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance .. Capacity,Membership and Change Request Form School Dlstrlct: Chapel el HIII-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 15 2024-November 14.2025 Capacity and MembershipSubmittal Date: November 15.2024 Carrboro 60,X32 518 518 518 518 500 482 96.4% Ephesus 61, 52 436 436 436 436 493 359 W1. I?sles Hills 56,299 516 516 516 516 508 323 64.6% F1'Graham 66,689 522 522 522 522 542 510 94.1 01—md. 50,764 412 412 412 412 400 385 96.3% McDougle 98,0110 548 548 548 548 537 477 88.8% Morris Grove 90,221 568 568 568 568 519 377 72.6% .Northside 99,5011 568 568 568 568 523 395 76.5% Raskkis 95,729 568 568 568 568 486 433 89.1% Scroggs 90,980 558 558 558 558 482 383 79,7% Seawall 52,896 450 450 45. 450. 333 393 118.0% Tata1 828.862 5.664 5.664 5.664 5.664 5,3151 4,5181 85.0% Special Note(s):I.For the November 15,2002 base year die Board accepted the superietendcnt-certified capacities as part ofthe School Facilities 'task Forec review and 2003 Planners and Sclsool Itepresenlative Technical Advisory Conrmiuce Report. These cap:rcilies will remain effective moil rhangcd by(1)the School C1P or(2)an amended version of this tome that is certified by the RC1CC. Justification:Capacity update resulting from Woolpert study. C p 'Y. d em ship tificetio+ '} f l q Qr �Sw erinlan t Dale PCC Q�gidir I T Dale 15 33 Section II Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2024-25) (Page 2 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance(SAPFO)Capacity,Membership and Change Request Form School District: Chapel Hill-Garrboro QtV Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 15 2024-November 14,2025 Capacity and Membership Submittal Data: November 15.2024 .1liddleSchool Square 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022 2023 2(123-21124 21124-202., Me Nlemberstifft 11c"culage of Feet capavill, Capacity C.Paefty cApadi) Capacity "Clatmi 1-1-i nfSer%ice Culbreth 122,4617 774 774 773 774 775 635 82% McAougle 136,221 732 732 732 732 772 658 05% Phillips 109.498 706 706 706 706 734 60) 82 Smith 128.764 732 TM 732 732 712 763 167 TnIa1 _ 4969511 2.944 2M4 2.944 L944 2.9931 2,656 88.7% sp.�r.t Not:e(s): I. For the November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted-the superintendent-certified capacities as pan of the School Facilities'I'M.It Force review and 2003 Planners and Sch0111 Representative Teclmieal Advisory Committee RcpOrt.Thrsc capacities will remain effective until changed by(U the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification:Capacity update resulting from Woolpert study, C p city Mbip Cer ificatian: uperinlen nt Date C Char Dale 16 34 Section II Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2024-25) (Page 3 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance(SAPFO)Capacity,Membership and Change Request Form School District: Cha el Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 15.2024-November 14.2025 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 15,2024 14".1,Sri.....I Square Z020-2021. 2011-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 21124-203, 'Akulh—,hils Fer-Mage of Feet Retiriested Requested Requested Requested Requesled Capacit.i Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity school� .'0 of SvrOuk Carrboro 148,021 800 800 800 800 851 893 105% Chapel Hill 241,111 1,520 1,620 1,620 1,620 1,535 1,606 105% East Chapel Hill 259,867 11515 1,515 1,515 1,.515 1,275 1,419 1111/4 Phoenix Acnd. 5,207 40 40 40 40 40 40 100% Total I 6-4,210 3,8751 3,975 3 975 3.9751 3.7011 i 3S581 106.9% Speelal Note(s): 1. Far the November 15,2002 hnsc year doe Board accsptsJ Drs superinrendent•ecrli GeJ capacisics as pan of the Schnal Facildics Tab Force re,im and 2003 Planners and School Represenmlive Technical Advisory Co nu atec.Reporl.Tlie a capaciks hill ronain C1TCcrias unril chnngcd by(1)rhe Sshanl C1P ar(2)un nmendsd cerstinn of this fnrrn Thai is terrified by the BOUC. Justification:Capacity update resulting from Woolpert study, hip Cartifi atlon: ����" a city MembersSuperinl n ent Date C Chaff€ Date 17 35 Section II C. Membership Date 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change— Change can be effectuated only by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)by all SAPFO partners. The Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)may advise if a change in date would improve the reporting or timeliness of the report. 2. Definition —The date at which student membership is calculated. This date is updated each year and also serves as the basis for projections along with the history from previous years. "For purposes of this Memorandum, the term "school membership" means the actual number of students attending school as of November 15 of each year. The figure is determined by considering the number of students enrolled (i.e. registered, regardless of whether a student is no longer attending school) and making adjustments for withdrawals, dropouts, deaths, retentions and promotions. Students who are merely absent from class on the date membership is determined as a result of sickness or some other temporary reason are included in school membership figures. Each year the School District shall transmit its school membership to the parties to this agreement no later than five (5) school days after November 15. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District November 15 of each year November 15 of each year 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: This can be analyzed in the future years to determine if it is an exemplary date. 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District No change at this time. No change at this time. 18 36 Section II II. Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change— The updating of this section will be conducted by the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) after review of the CIP requests from the School Districts. Action regarding CIP programs usually occurs during the BOCC budget Public Hearing process in the winter and spring of each year. The development of the CIP considers the conditions noted in the SAPFOTAC report released in the same CIP development year including LOS (level of service), capacity, and membership projections. 2. Definition — The process and resultant program to determine school needs and provide funding for new school facilities through a variety of funding mechanisms. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Not Applicable Not Applicable 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: The MOU outlines a system of implementing the SAPFO, including issuing Certificates of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS)to new development if capacity is available. The Requests for CAPS will be evaluated using the most recently adopted Capital Investment Plan. A new Capital Investment Plan is currently under development for approval prior to June 30, 2025. 5. Recommendation: Not subject to staff review 19 37 Section II B. Student Membership Projection Methodology 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change— This section is reviewed and recommended by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)to the BOCC for change, if necessary. 2. Definition —The method(s)by which student memberships are calculated for future years to determine total membership at each combined school level (Elementary, Middle, and High School)which take into consideration historical membership totals at a specific time (November 15) in the school year. These methods are also known as `models'. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Presently, the average of five models is being used: namely 3, 5, and 10-year history/cohort survival methods, Orange County Planning Department Linear Wave, and Tischler Linear methods. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Performance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model is in its prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity shortfalls so the annual Capital Investment Plan(CIP)updates can respond proactively with siting, design, and construction. Attachment ILB.1 includes a description of each model. Attachment II.B.3 shows the performance of the models for the 2024-25 school year from the prior year projection. Analysis on the accuracy of the results is showing fairly accurate results, particularly for the average of all five models. Orange County Schools has lower enrollment numbers than 10 years ago at all three school levels (Elementary, Middle, and High). Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools has lower enrollment numbers than 10 years ago at the Elementary and Middle levels while the High School level has experienced enrollment growth over the past 10 years. The historic growth rate is recorded by the models, but projected future growth is more difficult to accurately quantify. In all areas of the county, proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students are enrolled. The system is updated in November of each year, becoming part of the historical projection base. 20 38 Section II 5. Recommendation: In 2023, each school district contracted with NC State's Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd)to complete a"Land Use Study" and student membership projections. OREd's projection model includes a forecasting component whereas the SAPFO model is mathematically based using historical data and accepted projection methodologies. In December 2024, the Board of County Commissioners authorized notification to the parties of the SAPFO MOU that the student projection methodology will be changed to either the one employed by (OREd)or Carolina Demography. The SAPFO partners were invited to comment on this update and the Board of Commissioners is expected to make a final decision in April 2025 on which methodology is used moving forward. 21 39 STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION I CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS n O Tischler Linear(OCS& Mathematical formula;straight tine projection �((c*b)*x)+b Historical growth is reflected in projected growth ti CHCCS) y--projected population;c=histofical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years BYM+(BY€+5(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o a increase in BYt of 5 every other year reflects (OCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n /oSL=/o =projection year; of total increases in housing growth; reflects buildout membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year constraints member by school level BYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYM/SL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school decrease in BY1 of 15 until school year 2010-2011 (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year;%SL=%of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year bu[Idout constraints member by school level A� n Kn=k n.t+(kn.,"0.01) Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 CD C advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(F G„I g,j)13 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the ^r 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=3 kindergarten grade leve€; assumes the same ~i CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year i--i andlor historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average advancement rate;b=projected membership .fir C CD Cy Kn=k n.;+(kn-, 0,01) Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(E Gn!gn.T)f 5 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the CD 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade levet and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same a. CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the neat level each year v� and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average , advancement rate;b=projected membership ro _O Kn=k n-1+(k,1*0.01) n• Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 C advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each a=(Z Gn 19,1)110 Assumes a I%annual growth rate for the C 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=10 kindergarten grade levet; assumes the same d CHCCS) projected membership by school levet;an assumed b=g n-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level y kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year n and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average "C advancement rate;b=projected membership C C rn Attachment II.B.2 —Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysi4g023-24) Section H (Page 1 of 4) Orange County School District School Membershi 2023-2024 School Year November 15, 2023 11/15/22 2023 Report 11/15/23 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2021 - Nov 2022 2022-23 2023-24 2023-24 Elementary 3059 3055 -4 Model Projection is T 3038 L17 OCP 3040 L15 10C 3083 H28 5C 3088 H33 3C 3066 H11 Average 3063 H8 11/15/22 11/15/23 Middle 1598 1579 -19 Model Projection is T 1587 H8 OCP 1648 H69 10C 1576 L3 5C 1563 L16 3C 1568 L11 Average 1588 H9 11/15/22 11/15/23 High 2487 2382 -105 Model Projection is T 2470 H88 OCP 2415 H33 10C 2445 H63 5C 2452 H70 3C 2451 H69 Average 1 2446 H64 Totals 11/15/22 11/15/23 Elementary 3059 3055 Middle 1598 1579 High 2487 2382 Total 7144 7016 -128 Model Projection is T 7095 H79 OCP 7103 H87 10C 7104 H88 5C 7103 H87 3C 7085 H69 Average 7097 H81 H means High L means Low 23 41 Section H Attachment I1.13.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2023-24) (Page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2023-2024 School Year(November 15, 2023) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 17 students below to 33 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 9 students above actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 4 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. Middle School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 3 students below to 69 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 9 students above actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 19 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. High School Level • Projections were high, ranging from 33 students to 88 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 64 students above actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 105 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 69 to 88 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 81 students above actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 128 students, which is the sum of -4 at Elementary, -19 at Middle, and -105 at High. 24 Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2023-24) 4(�Iage 3 of 4) Section H Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2023-2024 School Year (November 15, 2023) 11/15/22 2023 Report 11/15/23 Actual Projection for Actual Change between actual 2022-23 2023-24 2023-24 Nov 2022 - Nov 2023 Elementary 4657 4575 -82 Model Projection is T 4624 H49 OCP 4588 H13 10C 4582 H7 5C 4561 L14 3C 4550 L25 Average 4581 H6 11/15/22 11/15/23 Middle 2798 2716 -82 Model Projection is T 2778 H62 OCP 2742 H26 10C 2685 L31 5C 2683 L33 3C 2660 L56 Average 2710 1 1-6 11/15/22 11/15/23 High 3950 3974 + 24 Model Projection is T 3922 L52 OCP 3860 L114 10C 3923 L51 5C 3938 L36 3C 3925 L49 Average 3914 L60 Totals 11/15/22 11/15/23 Elementary 4657 4575 Middle 2798 2716 High 3950 3974 Total 11,405 11,265 - 140 Model Projection is T 11,324 H59 OCP 11,190 L75 10C 11,190 L75 5C 11,182 L83 3C 11,135 L130 Average 11,205 L60 H means High L means Low 25 43 Section II Attachment ILB.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2023-24) (Page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2023-2024 School Year (November 15, 2023) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were mixed ranging from 25 students below to 49 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 6 students above the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 82 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. Middle School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 56 students below to 62 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 6 students below the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 82 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. High School Level • Projections were low, ranging from 36 students to 114 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 60 students below actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 24 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were mixed, ranging from 130 students below to 59 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 60 students below the actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 140 students, which is the sum of -82 at Elementary, -82 at Middle, and +24 at High. 26 Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analyw12024-25) Section H (Page 1 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2024-2025 School Year (November 15, 2024) 11/15/23 2024 Report 11/15/24 Actual Projection for Actual Change between actual 2023-24 2024-25 2024-25 Nov 2023 - Nov 2024 Elementary 3055 2994 -61 Model Projection is T 3032 H38 OCP 3025 H31 10C 2987 L7 5C 2990 L4 3C 3020 H26 Avera a 3011 H17 11/15/23 11/15/24 Middle 1579 1582 +3 Model Projection is T 1567 L15 OCP 1564 L18 10C 1577 L5 5C 1569 L13 3C 1585 H3 Average 1 1572 L10 11/15/23 11/15/24 High 2382 2369 -13 Model Projection is T 2364 L5 OCP 2359 L10 10C 2383 H13 5C 2392 H23 3C 2386 H17 Average 2377 H8 Totals 11/15/23 11/15/24 Elementary 3055 2994 Middle 1579 1582 High 2382 2369 Total 7016 6945 -71 Model Projection is T 6963 H18 OCP 6948 H3 10C 6947 H2 5C 6951 H6 3C 6991 H46 Average 6960 H15 H means High L means Low 27 45 Section H Attachment I1.13.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2024-25) (Page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2024-2025 School Year (November 15, 2024) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 7 students below to 38 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 17 students above actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 61 students between November 15, 2023 and November 15, 2024. Middle School Level • Projections were mostly low, ranging from 18 students below to 3 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 10 students below actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 3 students between November 15, 2023 and November 15, 2024. High School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 10 students below to 23 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 8 students above actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 13 students between November 15, 2023 and November 15, 2024. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 2 to 46 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 15 students above actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 71 students, which is the sum of -61 at Elementary, +3 at Middle, and -13 at High. 28 Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2024-25) 4fPage 3 of 4) Section H Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2024-2025 School Year (November 15, 2024) 11/15/23 2024 Report 11/15/24 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2023 - Nov 2024 23-24 2024-25 2024-25 Elementary 4575 4518 - 57 Model Projection is T 4538 H2O OCP 4454 L64 10C 4375 L143 5C 4374 L144 3C 4440 L78 Average 1 4436 L82 11/15/23 11/15/24 Middle 2716 2656 -60 Model Projection is T 2694 H38 OCP 2644 L12 10C 2659 H3 5C 2652 L4 3C 2697 H41 Average 2669 H13 11/15/23 11/15/24 High 3974 3958 -16 Model Projection is T 3942 L16 OCP 3869 L89 10C 3933 L25 5C 3933 L25 3C 3953 L5 Average 3926 L32 Totals 11/15/23 11/15/24 Elementary 4575 4518 Middle 2716 2656 High 3974 3958 Total 11,265 11,132 - 133 Model Projection is T 11,174 H42 OCP 10,967 L165 10C 10,967 L165 5C 10,959 L173 3C 11,090 L42 Average 11,031 L101 H means High L means Low 29 47 Section H Attachment IL13.3 — Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2024-25) (Page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2024-2025 School Year (November 15, 2024) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were mostly low, ranging from 144 students below to 20 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 82 students below the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 57 students between November 15, 2023 and November 15, 2024. Middle School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 12 students below to 41 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 13 students above the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 60 students between November 15, 2023 and November 15, 2024. High School Level • Projections were low, ranging from 5 students to 89 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 32 students below actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 16 students between November 15, 2023 and November 15, 2024. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were mostly low, ranging from 173 students below to 42 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 101 students below the actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 133 students, which is the sum of -57 at Elementary, -60 at Middle, and -16 at High. 30 48 Section II C. Student Membership Projections 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)and referred to the BOCC for annual report certifications. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition — The result of the average of the five student projection models represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level (Elementary, Middle, and High) for each school district (Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District and Orange County School District). 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The 5 model average discussed in Section II.B The 5 model average discussed in Section (Student Projection Methodology). See II.B (Student Projection Methodology). See Attachment II.C.4 Attachment II.C.3 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show a decrease and negative growth rate for all three school levels in Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools in the 10-year projection period. Orange County Schools (OCS)projections show a relatively flat rate of growth at Elementary level, with an overall increase of only 19 students in the 10-year projection period. At the Middle and High School levels, OCS projections show a negative growth rate. Attachment II.C.3 and Attachment II.C.4 show year-by-year percent growth and projected level of service (LOS). The projection models were updated using current (November 15, 2024) memberships. Ten years of student membership were projected thereafter. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Elementary The previous year (2023-24) projections for November 2024 at this level were overestimated by 82 students. The actual membership decreased by 57 students. Over the past ten years, this level has experienced a decrease in nine out of ten school years, including this year. Growth rates during the past ten years have ranged from-8.76%to +1.20%. Capacity was decreased by 349 31 49 Section II students in 24-25 as a result of accepting the capacities calculated by the Woolpert, Inc. study. The need for an additional elementary school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. Middle The previous year (2023-24) projections for November 2024 for this level were overestimated by 13 students. The actual membership decreased by 60 students. Over the past ten years, this level has shown varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from-4.17% to +3.53%. Capacity was increased by 49 students in 24-25 as a result of accepting the capacities calculated by the Woolpert, Inc. study. The need for an additional middle school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. High School The previous year (2023-24) projections for November 2024 for this level were underestimated by 32 students. The actual membership decreased by 16 students. Over the past ten years, this level has shown varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from-0.90 to +4.39%. Capacity was decreased by 274 students in 24-25 as a result of accepting the capacities calculated by the Woolpert, Inc. study. The need for additional high school capacity at Carrboro High School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. Orange County School District Elementary The previous year (2023-2)4 projections for November 2024 at this level were overestimated by 17 students. Actual membership decreased by 61 students. Over the past ten years, this level experienced varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this period have ranged from -5.72% to+1.81%. Capacity was increased by 68 students in 24-25 as a result of recalculating capacities to reflect NCDPI capacity formulas. The need for an additional Elementary School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. Middle The previous year (2023-24) projections for November 2024 for this level were underestimated by 10 students. The actual membership increased by 3 students. Over the past ten years, this level has experienced varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this period have ranged from-6.18%to +2.83%. The need for an additional Middle School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. High School The previous year (2023-24) projections for November 2024 for this level were overestimated by 8 students. The actual membership decreased by 13 students. Over the past ten years, this level 32 50 Section II has experienced varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this period ranged from - 4.22%to +3.35%. Capacity was decreased by 237 students in 24-25 as a result of recalculating capacities to reflect NCDPI capacity formulas. The need for an additional high school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. 5. Recommendation: Use statistics as noted in 3 above 33 �®■®s®o®yes® e��e�e�eEeem�er�eEae�mertrt�e�e�e�e�em®��� ewe®®® ®v®®®®®®®® e®®e®e®ee®ee® ® ®e®®®®eeeese®ee®® ®e®®®eeele®ee®® ®®®®®®®®®® y. ®®®®®®®®®® ®®®®®®®®®®®®®® ®®®®®®®®®® ®®®®®®®®®® ®®®®®®®®®® ��m1�1�1��,�!71�Em1�111E�71��11lEmll�,7fl��IlG�71t�1��:�■d�1� ®®®®®®®®®® Mq"M. er_sisr,sir�e�r�e�er�sr��■-��■+�sr��e�r�rr��e^+�e*r�r��e�r�er� i y-r^Ii�u}„mLrr.-msr�g�'�p�7i,l�'QY iYiC'l�NlliiVl�v1'.illsffiiYY i:7�•]iali:liil i4l iiliili it 54 CHCCS Student Pmjestlons 111141 II-- �� 12. Middh itC.�it�aiC,;�iL'7�7ikT1�ikk7iT7ik7 a77�1.f.��i!°•!�iTf1�RIh11 9 f7111111 .1 �M _ _ —r,r>_IJ�IIASU]:SliilJifL illfrliW:�i'lill iiLiW3�Cul�_IStJ:setdill i;'a tislitl a. Un Tm 3M � m am ao 391Q2E� a0E0 3- 3113 �Efl A. x- I- Xfl 3N.1 .I X. X- A. X-1 ...I M. A AD E- ax M. A. A CD CD 55 Section II D. Student Membership Growth Rate 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) each year and referred to the BOCC for annual report certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition —The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections resulting from the average of the five models represented by 10-year numerical membership projections by school level for each school district. This does not represent the year-by- year growth rate that may be positive or negative, but rather the average of the annual anticipated growth rates over the next 10 years. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District See Attachment II.D.2 See Attachment II.D.2 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The membership figures and percentage growth The membership figures and percentage on the attachments show a decline in student growth on the attachments show a decline membership at each school level within the in student membership at each school system. Projected Average Annual Growth Rate level within the system. Projected over next ten years: Average Annual Growth Rate over next ten years: School Year Projection Made Year Projection Made Level 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2024- School 2020- 1 2021- 2022- 2023- 2024- 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Level 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Elementary -0.23% -0.88% -0.47% -1.14% -0.37% Middle -1.50% -2.10% -1.77% -1.96% -1.2400 Elementary -0.02% -0.04% 0.26% -0.14% -0.10% High -1.44% -2.15% -2.09% -1.83% -1.740o Middle -0.67% -0.72% -0.15% -0.44% -0.52% High -0.98% -1.06% 0.98% -0.91% -0.10% 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Use statistics as noted for this year. In Use statistics as noted for this year. In December 2024, the Board of County December 2024, the Board of County Commissioners authorized notification to the Commissioners authorized notification to parties of the SAPFO MOU that the student the parties of the SAPFO MOU that the projection methodology will be changed to either student projection methodology will be the one employed by (OREd) or Carolina changed to either the one employed by Demography. The SAPFO partners were invited (OREd)or Carolina Demography. The 38 56 Section II to comment on this update and the Board of SAPFO partners were invited to comment Commissioners is expected to make a final on this update and the Board of decision in April 2025 on which methodology is Commissioners is expected to make a used moving forward. final decision in April 2025 on which methodology is used moving forward. 39 57 n 2023-20124 Orange County Student Projections Elementary School Year 2023-2024 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2032- 2033- (actual) 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Ivlembershi 3,055 3,011 2,985 2,970 2,964 2,950 2,961 2 9752 985 2,99E 3,012 Average%Increase -0.13% -1.441/o -C-85% C-49 O/D 0.21°/a -0.5D%o 0.38°0 0.509'. 0.341'. 0.360% 0520/. Middle 2023-2024 2024- 2026- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030 2031- 2032- 2033- CD - iv School Year (actual) 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Membership 1,579 1,572 1,586 1,593 11562 1,539 1,524 1,516 1,497 1,502 1,509 C� Average%.Increase -1.19% -0.42% D.88% 0.43%. -1.92% -1.47°/0 -0.98% -0.56% -1.25% 0.34% 0.51% CD High School ¢ 2023-2024 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029 2030- 2031- 2032- 2033- CJ SchoalYear (actual) 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 y Membership2,382 2 377 293 0E 2,259 2,270 2,268 2 250 2 251 2,229 2 184 2 1 72 I Average%.Increase -422% -023% -2. 5% -2.04% 0.48°x4 -0.11% -0.77% 0.06% -1.00% -2.01%. -0.554. 0 0 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Student Projections Nam Elementary fD School Year 2023-2D24 2024- L412 25- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2D32- 2D33- (actual) 202526 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Membership 4 575 4 43691 4191 4 134 4,049 4,048 4053 4,057 4 064 4 07Avera e%.Increase -1.76% -3.03% 8% -2.32% -1.38% -2.05% -0.02% 0.13% 0.10% 0.16% 0.25% �`� y ft Middle �" ¢ School Year 2023-2024 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2032- 2033- O n (actual) 2026 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Membership 2,716 2,669 2,619 2,590 2,504 2,459 2,359 2,305 2,220 2,222 2,226 X10 Average%.Increase -2.93%. -1.72% -1.88% -1.10% -3.34%. -1.79% -404%0 -2.29% -3.69% 007%. 0.18% U1 CD N x High School w School Year 2023-2024 2024- 2025- 2.026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2032- 2033- rDn (actual) 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Membership 3,974 3,92E 3;904 3,805 3,741 3,681 3,602 3,531 3,47E 3,347 3,249 CD Average%Increase 061% -120% -0.55%0 -2.54% -1.69%. -1.61%. -2.15% -1.98% -1.55% -3.72% -2.90% y p O C �! C A eD O ^ p N � O W O � "rS' 58 n Orange County 'Student Projections Elementary Set► I Year 2024-20.25 2025- 2028- 2027- 20213- 2029 2080- 2031- 2032- 2033- 2034- actual 2026 2027 2020 2020 2030 3031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Mk3 rnbershp 2,9134 2 _ul5 2,723 2,915 2,898 2,M,2 2,1815 2,924 2,934 2,948 2,964 Aver eek Increase -2-Xr-;O -1Er, -3.'3;: -32-1:0 -0.569 .x,11:+: 0A6% 0.31%, 0.3 K4.48°x6 0.5376 �p A� [A f� Middle n $cttcrol Year 2424-2035 2025- 2036- 2037- 2028- 2029- 2010- 2031- 2033- 2033- gZD35 p acts I 2026 2027 2028 2029 2"030 2931 2432 2433 2034 Lk—, nn,1l 1.502 1.S1�, nJ1 1.Sri� 1.534 1,521 1 510 1,449 1.486 1,493 AvF,a e'b Ins".reg�,. 01�b i)84 w 36—:?a :?�s�v -1 '=>b -088% -0,7.%6 -1 15% -0239 1046% e d � N Hi h S ChooI choalYear M,55 2025- 2026- ,2027• 2028• 7029- 2039- 2031• 20332• 2033- 2034- 0 2026 2027 ,20.28 .2029 2030 2081 .2032 .2433 2434 2436 2317 2267 2274 227°? 226^3 2254 2.221 .2,131 21612152AAF,"- ' Ii r{el i -2.19%6 -2.474 1.114=� JJ.19`A -0,43'4 -Q..23'A 1.4v 1,-'A -'7.JTr:-3 -,3.4'5'/-3 r1i CD to n o O Chapel HilliCarrboro Student Projections Elementa School Year 2034-242.5 2[125- 3426- 2027- 2028- 2028- 2030- 2031- 21132- 2033- 2034- 8C#Ual 2026 2027 2028 O029 2030 2031 2032 2933 2034 2035 ¢ ¢ hiPrnlrer rN 4.!-,1h 4,424 4.$60 4U6 4,265 4281 4.292 4.302 4313 4.329 4.3 5 Aywage.=:o, Inti.reas,, 1 1 -209% 1 -144% 1 X1,7896 1 -163996 1 0216'36 1 0 26`'� 1 024% 1 0,25%6 1 03M 1 0 4-B'-;, Middle School Year 202x1.2025 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2034- 2031- 2032` 2433- 2434- A tactualtactuall 2026 2027 2028 2029 2090 2031 2032 2438 20344 2035 4em er 2,656 2.603 1 2,576 2,505 2,474 :2,398 2 369 2.309 2,325 2.133 2,343 t� n Avw a% Inoreaxe 1 -2.2196 1 -1.98% 1 -1.44%6 1 -2.66%, -1.3596 1 -3.06% 1 -1.2496 1 -2.5396 1 0.7396 1 0.3296 1 0.43% v' � Hi h School c �choal Year .2024.2025 2026- 202171- 2027• 2028• 2028- 2030- 2031- 2032- 3703'3• 2034- 0 � C� actual 2028 2427 2028 s1029 2039 2081 2092 238 2034 2436 O ... 3,955 3.-m 5 3,816 3,741 3680 3595 3.541 3.508 3400 S343 5,522 C Avo, o�6 IsICrea -0.40196 -1.08% -2.5316 -1.98% -1.64% -2.30% -1.4996 -0.93% -3.48% -1.6796 1 -016896 � C CD N `"r o � � o N �' 59 Section II E. Student / Housing Generation Rate 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition — Student generation rate refers to the number of public school students per housing unit constructed in each school district, as defined in the Student Generation Rate Study completed by TisherBise on October 28, 2014. Housing units include single-family detached, single family attached/duplex, multifamily, and manufactured homes. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District See Attachment II.E.1 See Attachment II.E.1 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: At the January 2014 SAPFOTAC meeting, members discussed the increased number of students generated in both school districts from new development,particularly multifamily housing. The SAPFOTAC recommended further evaluation of the adopted Student Generation Rates and the impacts the number of bedrooms a particular housing type may have on student generation rates. As a result, Orange County entered into a contract with TischlerBise to update the student generation rate analysis. The new student generation rates were approved on May 19, 2015 and are shown in Attachment II.E.1. New rates from the 2014 Student Generation Rates for Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District Report are based on an inventory of recently built units from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013. It should be noted that students are generated from new housing as well as from existing housing where new families have moved in. The CAPS system estimates new development impacts and associated student generation, but it is important to understand that student increases are a composite of both of these factors. This effect can be dramatic and can vary greatly between areas and districts where either new housing is dominant or new families move into a large inventory of existing housing stock. 42 60 Section II 5. Recommendation: In December 2024, the Board of County Commissioners authorized notification to the parties of the SAPFO MOU that the student projection methodology will be changed to either the one employed by(OREd) or Carolina Demography. The SAPFO partners were invited to comment on this update and the Board of Commissioners is expected to make a final decision in April 2025 on which methodology is used moving forward. Either projection methodology is expected to use a student generation rate determined by the projection professionals It is anticipated the SAPFOTAC will evaluate the student generation rates used by the selected professionals for inclusion into the CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools) process. 43 61 n 0 ti TischlerBise Student Generation Rates — 2014 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Schools 0-3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5+ Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Detached 0.61 0.84 1.13 0.84 0-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Attached 0.27 0.42 0.38 Multifamily/Other 0.11 0.47 0.18 y Manufactured Home 0.268 0.86 0.78 a A Weight Average for Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District 0.49 Orange County Schools 0-3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5+ Bedrooms Weighted Average n Single-Family Detached 0.35 0.57 0.57 0.44 �s CD 0-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms Weighted Average "+ Single-Family Attached 0.07 0.17 0.15 CL Multifamily/Other 0.08 0.67 0.17 Manufactured Home 0.67 0.47 0.52 Weight Average for Orange County School District 0.37 Source:Student Generation Rates for Orange County School District and Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District,TischlerBise,October 28,2014 Revised May 7,2015 A� � N O 62 Section II III. Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process Abstract: The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance process has two distinct components: A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (Process 1) Timeframe: In November of each year, Student Membership and Building Capacity is transmitted from the school districts to the Orange County Board of Commissioners for consideration and approval and used in the following years CIP (e.g. November 15, 2023 membership numbers used to develop a CIP to be considered for adoption in June 2024). Process Framework 1. SAPFOTAC projects future student membership from historical data, current membership and hypothetical growth rates from established methodologies. 2. School Districts and BOCC compare projections to existing capacity and proposed Capital Investment Plan. 3. SAPFOTAC forwards data and projections to all SAPFO partners. 4. School Districts develop Capital Investment Plan Needs Assessment during this process 5. The Capital Investment Plan work sessions and Public Hearings are conducted by the BOCC in the spring of each year. 6. The adoption of CIP that sets forth monies and timeframe for school construction (future capacity)by BOCC. 45 63 Section III School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process 1 - Capital Investment Planning (CIP) Projection Method1 CIP Approval CAPS System (Historical Membership (Proposed new construction (Certificate of Adequate plus Hypothetical Growth i.e. school capacity addedby Public Schools) Rate) number of seats and year) Actual Adjustments (Current year actual replaces past year membership projections) 'Historical Membership is a product of students generated from: (1)pre-existing/approved undeveloped lots where new housing is c built, (2) existing housing stock with new families/children, and (3)newly approved housing development (in the future this component will be known as CAPS approved development). n 2The only part of the CAPS System(i.e., computer spreadsheet subdivision tracking)that receives data from the Process 1 CIP c includes the actual membership (November 15 of preceding CIP year) and new school capacity amount (seats)in a specific year pursuant to the CIP. 0 c 0 46 64 Section III B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Update (Process 2) Timeframe: The CAPS system is updated approximately November 15 of each year when the school districts report actual membership and `pre-certified' capacity, whether it is CIP associated or prior `joint action' agreement. `Joint action' determinations of changes in capacity due to State rules or other non-construction related items are anticipated to be done prior to the November 15 capacity and membership reporting date. This update may reflect the Board of County Commissioners action on the earlier year Capital Investment Plan(CIP) as it affects capacity and addition of new actual fall membership. The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) stays in effect until the following year —(e.g.: November 15, 2005 to November 14, 2006). New development is originally logged for a certain year. As the CAPS system is updated, each CAPS projection year is `absorbed' by the actual estimate of a given year. Later year CAPS projections of the same development remain in the future year CAPS system accordingly. For example, if a 50-lot subdivision is issued a CAPS, 15 lots may be assigned to "Year 1," 10 lots to "Year 2," 10 lots to "Year 3," 10 lots to "Year 4," and 5 lots to "Year 5." When"Year 1" is updated, the students generated from the 15 lots are absorbed by the actual estimate. The students generated in"Years 2, 3, 4, and 5" are held in the CAPS system and added to the appropriate year when the CAPS system is updated. The City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO and does not require that CAPS be issued prior to approving development activities. Increasing development within this area of the county has the potential to encumber a significant portion of the available capacity within the Orange County School District. Although the SAPFO system is not formally regulated in Mebane, staff monitors development activity and when students enter the school system, their enrollment is calculated and used in future school projection needs. Please note that the two processes (CIP and CAPS) are on separate, but parallel tracks. However, the CIP does create a crossover of capacity information between the two processes. For example, the SAPFO system for both school districts that will be established /initiated / certified each year in November and is based on prior year created and/or planned CIP capacity 47 65 Section III and current school year membership. The SAPFOTAC report including new current year membership and projections are to be used for upcoming CIP development as noted in Process 1. CIP Process 1 (for CIP 2024 -2034) November 2022—June 2023 (using 2023 SAPFOTAC Report) SAPFO CAPS Process 2 (for SAPFO System 2024—2025) November 2023 -November 2024 48 66 School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process 2 - Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Allocation 2024 CAPS system is effective November 15, 2023 through November 14, 2024. The system isupdatedwithnew membership, CIP capacity changes, and any other BOCC/School District joint action approved capacity prior to November 15, 2023. This information is received within 5 days of November 15 and posted within the next 15 days. This CAPS system recalibration is retroactive to November 15, 2023. CAPS Allocation System CAPS Systeme ~ 1. Certified Capacity AC = SC — (ADM+ND 1+ND2+. . .) o 2 LOS Capacity 3. Actual Membership 4. Year Start Available Capacity N 5. Ongoing Current Available Capacity (includes available capacity decreases from approved CAPS development by year) 6. CAPS approved development AC>_0 - Issue CAPS a. Total units AC<O - Defer CAPS to later date b. Single Family C. Other Housing' a c 1 Student Generation Rates from CAPS housing type create future membership estimate.Please note that this CAPS membership future estimate is c different than the projection based on historical data and projection models used in the CIP process 1. This estimate only captures new a development impact, which is the component that the SAPFO can regulate. a AC—Available Capacity - Starts at Annual Update Capacity and reduces as CAPS approved development is entered into the system. o SC— Certified School Level Capacity ADM—Average Daily Membership n ND —New Development;ND means first approved CAPS approved development b 49 Annual Change-Increase(Decrease)in Actual&Projected Membership) Numlmr,fStud,nts,Actual and Projected,Ov,r(Und,r)105%LOS ��I • !Capacity-100%Level f S-1 N mber of Students,Actual and Projected, . Number f Students,Actual and Prjectd,• ��1�1�11� ���E�1�3311��1�iF31f1�FFFEII�FF11�®�®®��Fd71� 1� 1�Fm1����71 Annual Change-increase(Dmmse)in Actual&Projected Membership) �rof Student,,Actual and Projected,Over(Under)100%LOS �����m1�m1�m1�L671\�EID1�®1�6�I��1�6�f1��1� 11��1� 31�Fm11�FFF�1�Fra11��1 Em,MEN ��11�F4i1��1�®1��11��1�E1�a1�Ef�fl +lf�mf�m1����1�3a11�rm1����1��1� i1� 31 �I • . • .- -• • LOS