Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda - 04-15-2025; 8-g - Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) – Receipt and Transmittal of 2025 Annual Technical Advisory Committee Report 1 ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: April 15, 2025 Action Agenda Item No. 8-g SUBJECT: Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) — Receipt and Transmittal of 2025 Annual Technical Advisory Committee Report DEPARTMENT: Planning and Inspections ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: 1. SAPFO Partners Transmittal Letter Perdita Holtz, Deputy Director, 919-245- 2. Draft 2025 SAPFOTAC Annual Report and 2578 Larger Scale Projection Worksheets Cy Stober, Director, 919-245-2575 PURPOSE: To receive the 2025 Annual Report of the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and transmit it to the SAPFO partners for comments before certification in June. NOTE: School Capacity Capital Investment Plan (CIP) Needs Analysis projects no new school system capacity needs in the next 10 years for elementary, middle, and high school levels for both Orange County Schools (OCS) and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS). BACKGROUND: 1. Updates This Year School capacities were updated this year, as discussed in #5 below. There is intention to update the projection methodology, beginning with next year's report. As was presented at the December 10, 2024 BOCC meeting, either Carolina Demography at UNC Chapel Hill or the Operational Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) at NC State University will be contracted with to provide projection services. A letter was sent to the SAPFO partners in January informing them of this intended change and inviting comment, as is required by the SAPFO Memoranda of Understanding. Comments were requested by mid-March with the BOCC expected to decide on which consultant group to use in April. 2. Annual Report Each year since 2004, the SAPFOTAC Report is updated to reflect changing conditions of student membership and school capacity. This information is analyzed and used to project future school construction needs based on adopted level of service standards. There are two steps to the full report to keep the SAPFO system calibrated: Student Membership and Capacity is normally certified in the fall; and then the full annual report is produced the following winter/spring. At the February 4, 2025 BOCC meeting, the Board approved the November 15, 2024 actual Student Membership and Capacity numbers (i.e. first part) for both OCS and CHCCS. A draft of the full annual SAPFOTAC Report (Attachment 2) is complete and has been reviewed by the SAPFOTAC members. 3. SAPFOTAC The SAPFOTAC is comprised of representatives of both school systems, the Planning Directors of the County and Towns, and County Budget staff. It is tasked to produce an 2 annual report for the governing boards of each SAPFO partner outlining changes in actual membership, capacity, student projections, and their collective impacts on the Capital Investment Plan (CIP) and the future issuance of Certificates of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS). The CAPS are a requirement for new residential developments and reflect the capacity of the applicable school system to absorb the new students generated by the development project. Orange County's Planning Staff compiles the report, holds a meeting discussing the various aspects with the SAPFOTAC, and then prepares a draft report that is reviewed by the SAPFOTAC (Attachment 2). 4. Membership Data CHCCS membership decreased in total by 133 students from the previous year: - 57 Elementary School - 60 Middle School -16 High School OCS membership decreased in total by 71 students from the previous year: - 61 Elementary School +3 Middle School -13 High School 5. Capacity Data School capacities were updated this year and take Pre-K classroom space into account (in other words, space used for Pre-K has been subtracted from capacity for K-5 classrooms). CHCCS updated its capacities using those calculated in the Woolpert, Inc. study. OCS calculated capacities using DPI (Department of Public Instruction) formulas. Updated capacities resulted in the following changes: CHCCS OCS Elements -349 +68 Middle +49 +129 -High -274 -237 6. Student Projection Analysis CHCCS Student membership projections show an overall decrease in membership at all levels within the 10-year planning period. Projections are shown on page 37 of the report. OCS Student membership projections show a flat membership projection at the Elementary level over the next 10 years, with decreases in the near-term followed by small increases in later years. At the Middle and High School levels, the projections show an overall decrease in membership within the 10-year planning period. Projections are shown on page 36 of the report. 7. School Capacity CIP Needs Analysis CHCCS Projected needs: Elementary School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years Middle School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years High School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years 3 OCS Projected needs: Elementary School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years Middle School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years High School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years 8. Student Generation Rates The student generation rates used for calculating the expected number of students from each new residential unit were approved on May 19, 2015 and are shown in Attachment II.E.1 of the report. Updated rates began to be used for CAPS issuances in the fall of 2015 and are based on an inventory of units built from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013. 9. Access to Full Report The draft SAPFOTAC report will be posted on the Orange County Planning Department's website. A letter (Attachment 1) and the Executive Summary of the report will be sent to all SAPFO partners after this BOCC meeting advising them of the availability of the draft report and inviting comment. 10.Additional Information Mebane The City of Mebane is not a SAPFO partner and does not utilize CAPS in its residential development review. However, County staff corresponds with Mebane annually in much the same way it does with SAPFO signatory communities and Mebane has continually provided its residential growth information, as represented by certificates of occupancy as well as projected residential growth estimates. These figures are reflected in the Annual Report, including the Executive Summary. Charter Schools Charter and private schools are not included as part of the SAPFO Annual Report and, as a result, their membership and capacity numbers are not formally monitored or included in future projections. However, the SAPFOTAC monitors charter and private schools and their effect on student enrollment upon both school districts. Additional information regarding charter school enrollment is contained in the Executive Summary. FINANCIAL IMPACT: Current student growth projections do not show capacity needs for additional schools in either the CHCCS District or OCS District during the 10-year projection period. ALIGNMENT WITH STRATEGIC PLAN: This item supports: • GOAL 5: PUBLIC EDUCATION/LEARNING COMMUNITY OBJECTIVE 5. Invest in and implement a plan that supports schools operational and facility funding needs. RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends the Board: 1. Receive the 2025 SAPFOTAC Annual Report; and 2. Authorize the Chair to sign the transmittal letter to SAPFO partners contained in Attachment 1. Attachment 1 4 BOCC Letterhead April 16, 2025 Jessica Anderson, Mayor Anne Purcell, Chair Town of Chapel Hill Orange County Board of Education 405 Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd. 200 E. King Street Chapel Hill,NC 27514 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Barbara Foushee, Mayor George Griffin, Chair Town of Carrboro Chapel Hill - Carrboro Board of Education 301 W. Main Street 750 Merritt Mill Road Carrboro,NC 27510 Chapel Hill,NC 27516 Mark Bell, Mayor Town of Hillsborough P.O. Box 429 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Subject: Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)Annual Report Dear Sir or Madam: This letter is to update you on the status of the 2025 Annual SAPFOTAC Report. In accordance with the SAPFO Memoranda of Understanding (MOU), the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) approved the November 15, 2024 actual membership and capacity numbers for Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools at its meeting on February 4, 2025. The SAPFOTAC, comprised of representatives of both school systems and the Planning Directors of the County and Towns, has produced the 2025 Annual Report. Per the SAPFO MOU, the annual technical report contains information on Levels of Service, Building Capacity, Membership Date, Capital Investment Plan, Student Membership Projection Methodology, Student Membership Projections, Student Membership Growth Rate, Student/Housing Generation Rate, and the SAPFO Process. Enclosed for your use are copies of the 2025 Executive Summary and the April 15, 2025 BOCC meeting agenda item abstract when the BOCC received the draft report. The full draft SAPFOTAC report is available on the Orange County Planning Department website in the Long- Range & Comprehensive Planning section at the following link: http://www.oran eg cogpl nc.gov/3031/Long= Ran-eg Comprehensive-Planning The 2025 Annual SAPFOTAC Report is scheduled to be certified by the BOCC at a regular meeting in June 2025. If you have any comments pertaining to the report,please forward them to Cy Stober, Orange County Planning and Inspections Director, 919-245-2575 or cstober(d),oran ec�ountync.gov, no later than 5:00 p.m. on May 16, 2025. Any comments received will be part of our agenda package in June. 5 Please share this information and the 2025 SAPFOTAC report with your respective boards. Sincerely, Jamezetta Bedford Chair Enclosures cc: Travis Myren, Orange County Manager Patrice Toney, Manager, Town of Carrboro Mary Jane Nirdlinger, Interim Manager, Town of Chapel Hill Eric Peterson, Manager, Town of Hillsborough Nyah Hamlett, Superintendent, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Al Ciarochi, Deputy Superintendent for Operations, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Andre Stewart, Chief Operations Officer, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Quamesha Whiffed-Miller, Director of Student Enrollment, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Danielle Jones, Superintendent, Orange County Schools Fredrick Davis, Chief Operations Officer, Orange County Schools Tina Moon, Interim Planning Director, Town of Carrboro Britany Waddell, Planning and Development Services Director, Town of Chapel Hill Shannan Campbell, Planning and Economic Development Manager, Town of Hillsborough Attachment 2 6 ORANGE COUNTY, NC SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE PREPARED BY A STAFF COMMITTEE: PLANNING DIRECTORS, SCHOOL REPRESENTATIVES, TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE (SAPFOTAC) (PURSUANT TO PROVISIONS OF A MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING ADOPTED IN 2002 & 2003) (ORDINANCES ADOPTED IN JULY 2003) Annual Report 2025 (BASED ON NOVEMBER 2024 DATA) CERTIFIED BY THE BOCC ON XXX, 2025 7 Table of Contents 2025 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary..........................................................................................................................i Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................................x Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners.............................................................................................xi Planning Directors/School Representatives Technical Advisory Committee...........................................................xii I. Base Memorandum of Understanding........................................................................................................................1 A. Level of Service....................................................................................................................................................1 B. Building Capacity and Membership..................................................................................................................2 Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2022-23)...................................................5 Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24)..................................................6 Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24)..................................................7 Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24)..................................................8 Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24) ................................9 Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24) .............................. 10 Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24) .............................. 11 Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2024-25)................................................ 12 Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2024-25)................................................ 13 Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2024-25)................................................ 14 Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2024-25).............................. 15 Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2024-25).............................. 16 Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2024-25) .............................. 17 C. Membership Date...............................................................................................................................................18 II.Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System...........................................................19 A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP).........................................................................................................................19 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology...............................................................................................20 Attachment II.B.1—Student Membership Projection Descriptions...........................................................................................22 Attachment II.B.2 —Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2023-24)............................................23 C. Student Membership Projections.....................................................................................................................31 Attachment II.C.1 —Orange County Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24).......................................34 Attachment II.C.2—Chapel Hill-Carrboro Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24).............................35 Attachment II.C.3—Orange County Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2024-25).......................................36 Attachment II.C.4—Chapel Hill-Carrboro Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2024-25).............................37 D. Student Membership Growth Rate..................................................................................................................38 Attachment II.D.1—Orange County and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Student Growth Rates(Chart dates from 2024-2034 based on 11/15/23 membership numbers)(2023-24)................................................................................................................40 Attachment II.D.2—Orange County and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Student Growth Rates(Chart dates from 2025-2035 based on 11/15/24 membership numbers)(2024-25)................................................................................................................41 E. Student/Housing Generation Rate.................................................................................................................42 Attachment II.E.1 —Current Student Generation Rates(2015)................................................................................................44 III. Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process.........................................................45 A. Capital Investment Plan(CIP) (Process 1)......................................................................................................45 Attachment III.A.1 —Process 1 Capital Improvement Plan............................................................................................8........46 B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS)Update (Process 2)...........................................................................................................................................................47 Attachment IILB.1 —Process 2 Certificate of Adequate Public Schools(CAPS)Allocation...................................................49 9 2025 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service ....................................................................(No Change)........Pg. I Chapel HilllCarrboro Orange County School District School District Elementary 105% 105% Middle 107% 107% High 110% 110% B. Building Capacity and Membership..................................(Change)..............Pg. 2 Chapel HilUCarrboro Orange County School District School District Capacity* Membership Change from Capacity** Membership Change from Prior Year Prior Year Elementary 5315 4518 -57 3453 2994 -61 Middle 2993 2656 -60 2396 1582 +3 High 3701 3958 - 16 2678 2369 -13 * Capacity has been updated to reflect the results of the Woolpert,Inc. study. ** Capacity has been updated to reflect use of NCDPI's capacity formulas. C. Membership Date—November 15.......................................(No Change)........Pg. 18 II. Annual Update to SAPFO System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) ...........................................(No Change)........Pg. 19 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology.................(No Change*)......Pg. 20 The average of 3, 5,and 10 year history/cohort survival,linear and arithmetic projection models. *See additional information in Executive Summary and Report C. Student Membership Projections.......................................(Change)..............Pg. 30 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2024-2025 School Year—Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2024-2025 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual. Year Projection Made for 2024-2025 Membership Actual2024 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 Membership Elementary 4518 5489 H971 4655 H137 4411 L107 4495 L23 4436 L82 Middle -2656 2917 H261 2671 H15 2581 L75 2631 L25 2669 H13 High 3958 1 4111 H153 3893 L65 3801 L157 3862 L96 3926 L32 i 10 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2024-2025 School Year-Orange County Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2024-2025 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual. Year Projection Made for 2024-2025 Membership Actual 2024 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 Membership Elementary 2994 3378 H384 2962 L32 2948 L46 3044 H50 3011 H17 Middle 1582 1732 H150 1593 Hll 1599 H17 1578 L4 1572 L10 High 2369 2401 H32 2293 L76 2438 H164 2420 H51 2377 H8 D. Student Membership Growth Rate....................................(Change*)............Pg. 37 *See additional information in Executive Summary and Report Projected Average Annual Growth Rate Over Next 10 Years Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Year Projection 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2024- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2024- Made: 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Elementary -0.23% -0.88% -0.47% -1.14% -0.37% -0.02% -0.04% 0.26% -0.14% 0.10% Middle -1.50% -2.10% -1.77% -1.96% -1.24% -0.67% -0.72% -0.15% -0.44% E-�O.E52-%;.High -1.44% -2.15% -2.09% -1.83% -1.74% -0.98% -1.06% 0.98% -0.91% E. Student/Housing Generation Rate ..................................(No Change*)......Pg. 40 *See additional information in Executive Summary and Report SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS (Based on future year Student Membership Projections) CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 85.0%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase but remain negative over the next 10 years (average -0.37%%per year compared to an average of-1.99% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10- year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard(current LOS is 88.7%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease and remain negative over the next 10 years (average -1.24% compared to an average of-0.71% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year projection period. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 106.9%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease and be negative over the next 10 years (average -1.74% compared to +0.61% over the past 10 years). ii 11 C. Projections are not showing a need to expand Carrboro High School from the initial capacity of 800 students to the ultimate capacity of 1,200 students in the 10-year projection period. ORANGE COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard (current LOS is 87.3%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase but remain negative over the next 10 years (average -0.10% compared to -0.82% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10-year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard (current LOS is 68.9%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase but remain negative over the next 10 years (average -0.52% compared to -1.05% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year projection period. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed 110%LOS standard(current LOS is 87.7%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase but remain negative over the next 10 years (average -0.10% compared to -0.52% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for additional High School in the 10-year projection period. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION Pre-K Students With the 2023 Woolpert, Inc. study complete, the capacity numbers in both school districts have been updated to account for Pre-K students. The capacity numbers included in this report allocate space for Pre-K classrooms. Pre-K students for each district is as follows: WSJ � • � i i i School Year Number of Students Number of Students 2019-20 267 144 2020-21 208 -59 86 -58 2021-22 222 +14 125 +39 2022-23 295 +73 101 -24 2023-24 250 -45 91 -10 2024-25 256 +6 87 -4 iii 12 Charter and Private Schools Currently, there are two Charter Schools located in the Town of Hillsborough. Charter student membership for these two schools is as follows: i River Academy The ExpeditionSchool School Year Number of Students Number of Students 2017-18 542 326 2018-19 655 +113 355 +29 2019-20 715 +60 365 +10 2020-21 747 +32 2021-22 751 +4 365* 2022-23 777 +26 2023-24 805 +28 362 -3 2024-25 829 +24 381 +19 *The Expedition School reached full capacity of 365 students in 2019-20 ^Reallocated space to accommodate more students. Charter and private schools are not included as part of the SAPFO Annual Report and, as a result, their membership and capacity numbers are not included in future projections. SAPFO projections are used for projecting only public school capacity/construction needs. However, the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee does monitor charter and private schools and their effect on student enrollment in both school districts. If a charter or private school were to close and a spike were to be realized in school enrollment, the student projections would likely accelerate the need for additional capacity in future years, but likely still within an appropriate time for CIP planning. Charter Schools are also monitored by the Department of Public Instruction(DPI) which provides pupil information,based on data received from Charter Schools located in Orange County, to the County for funding purposes. The County budgeted for charter schools as follows: Chapel bi i Orange County F City Schools Schools Fiscal Year Number of Students Number of Students 2017-18 162 617 2018-19 155 -7 769 +152 2019-20 169 +14 843 +74 2020-21 166 -3 885 +42 2021-22 156 -10 919 +34 2022-23 205 +49 951 +32 2023-24 210 +5 999 +48 2024-25 231 +21 1091 +92 Although charter and private schools numbers are not collected for SAPFO purposes, impacts due to enrollment at these schools are accounted for in SAPFO process with the annual reporting of student membership and growth rates contained in the 10-year student projections. iv 13 Future Residential Development Proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. The Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) test is conducted during the approval process at a certain stage. Once students are enrolled in a school year, through annual reporting of student membership numbers, 10-year student projections can be updated to display future capacity needs in time to efficiently plan for future school capacity/construction requests. The SAPFOTAC continues to monitor and evaluate the demand and growth of residential development throughout Orange County as well as its affect on student membership rates. Below is a list of larger residential projects and the potential number of students from these projects which may have an impact in the short term. Please note, the City of Mebane is not a parry to the SAPFO agreement and therefore does not require that CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools)be issued prior to development approvals. of Elementary: 19 Jade Creek Carrboro 72 Middle: 13 High: 12 Elementary: 11 Newbury Carrboro 36 Middle: 7 High: 6 Elementary: 44 Weavers Grove Chapel Hill 243 Middle: 18 High: 20 Elementary: 28 Park Apartments Chapel Hill 259 Middle: 10 High: 13 Trinity Court Affordable Elementary: 7 Housing Chapel Hill 54 Middle: 3 High: 4 Elementary: 9 Columbia Street Annex Chapel Hill 59 Middle: 3 High: 3 Elementary: 21 101-111 Erwin Road Chapel Hill 52 Middle: 10 High: 9 Elementary: 21 710 N Estes Townhomes Chapel Hill 107 Middle: 10 High: 9 Elementary: 12 Stanat's Place Chapel Hill 47 Middle: 4 High: 4 Elementary: 21 Aura Blue Hill Chapel Hill 301 Middle: 8 High: 11 v 14 Proposed Residential iTotal of IlRemainingli Elementary: 52 Aura Chapel Hill Chapel Hill 418 Middle: 18 High: 22 Elementary: 35 Chapel Hill Crossing Chapel Hill 314 Middle: 13 High: 16 Elementary: 35 Gateway Chapel Hill 316 Middle: 13 High: 16 Elementary: 5 Jay St Apartments Chapel Hill 48 Middle: 2 High: 2 Elementary: 51 Hillmont Chapel Hill 466 Middle: 19 Hi h: 23 Elementary: 32 South Creek Chapel Hill 269 Middle: 12 High: 14 Elementary: 13 Homestead Gardens Chapel Hill 92 Middle: 5 High: 5 Elementary: 24 Tri-Point Chapel Hill 119 Middle: 8 High: 8 Elementary: 31 Tarheel Lodging Chapel Hill 283 Middle: 11 High: 14 Elementary: 30 Millennium Chapel Hill Chapel Hill 274 Middle: 11 High: 14 Elementary: 10 South Creek Phase I Chapel Hill 92 Middle: 4 High: 5 Elementary: 84 Middle: 45 High: 57 (exact count of unit types still to be built is Collins Ridge Phase 1 Hillsborough 631 unavailable,therefore calculating expected number of students still expected is not possible. These estimates are from last year's count of 672 units remaining) vi 15 Proposed Residential iTotal of IlRemainingli Elementary: 22 Persimmon at Cates Creek Hillsborough 346 Middle: 11 High: 15 Elementary: 5 East Village at Meadowlands Hillsborough 76 Middle: 3 High: 4 Elementary: 48 Waterstone South Hillsborough 655 Middle: 22 Hi h:33 Elementary: 8 Bowman Place Mebane 37 Middle: 4 High: 4 Tupelo Junction Mebane 123 Elementary: 27 Middle: 12Hi h: 15 Elementary: 56 Tupelo North Mebane 207 Middle: 27 Hi h: 35 Elementary: 110 Oakwood Subdivision Mebane 409 Middle: 53 High: 70 Elementary: 3 Oak Grove Trails Mebane 51 Middle: 2 High: 2 Elementary: 2 Meadows Mebane 11 Middle: 1 Hi h: 1 Elementary: 8 Meadowstone Mebane 147 Middle: 5 High: 6 Elementary: 24 Saddle Club Subdivision Mebane 110 Middle: 11 High: 13 Elementary: 4 Mebane Village Townes Mebane 69 Middle: 3 High: 3 Elementary: 5 Bowman Road Townhomes Mebane 89 Middle: 4 High: 4 Elementary: 23 NACC Subdivision Mebane 106 Middle: 11 High: 13 Orange County Elementary: 10 Edenview (OCS) 38 Middle: 5 High: 7 vii 16 Proposed Residential IF iTotal of IlRemainingl Orange County Elementary: 4 Stonewall (OCS) 18 Middle: 2 High: 2 Orange County Elementary: 4 Williams Glen (OCS) 17 Middle: 2 High: 2 The SAPFOTAC also monitors projects that have not reached the stage of the development process when CAPS are issued. Therefore, student estimates are not yet available. The following is a list of projects for which rezoning has been approved: ExpectedResidential Project �Mrisdiction St Paul Village Chapel Hill 350 Link Apartments at 101 E Rosemary Chapel Hill 150 Longleaf Trace Chapel Hill 42-60 South Creek(Phase 3) Chapel Hill 56-76 Single-Family 249-386 Multi-Family Gateway/Meridian Phase 2 Chapel Hill 72 Barbee Chapel Apartments Chapel Hill 262-350 School Renovation and Expansion The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) student projections illustrate when the adopted level of service capacities are forecasted to be met and/or exceeded in anticipation of Capital Improvement Plan(CIP)planning and the construction of a new school. Both school districts continue planning efforts to renovate and expand existing facilities to address school capacity needs in a more feasible way. Additional capacity resulting from school renovations and expansions will be added to the projection models in stages, once funding is approved, versus the addition of greater capacity when a new school is constructed and completed. The renovation and expansion to existing facilities may delay construction of new schools further into the future, depending on how and how much capacity is added to the system. Decisions on the timing of reconstruction(i.e. capacity additions) funding would be directly linked to the SAPFO model at the appropriate time. 2023 Woolpert Facilities Capital Needs Assessment, Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) Student Projections,Future Student Projection Methodology, and Student Generation Rates In 2023, Orange County contracted with Woolpert, Inc. to conduct a Facilities Capital Needs Assessment on all schools within both districts. Part of the assessment included calculating capacity at each school. At the Elementary level,two capacity calculations were completed: one that excluded space used by Pre-K programs and one that did not account for Pre-K usage. The capacity numbers reported and used in the 2025 SAPFOTAC Report take space allocations for Pre-K students into account. viii 17 Also in 2023, each school district contracted with NC State's Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd)to complete a"Land Use Study" and student membership projections. OREd's projection model includes a forecasting component whereas the SAPFO model is mathematically based using historical data and accepted projection methodologies. In December 2024, the Board of County Commissioners authorized notification to the parties of the SAPFO MOU that the student projection methodology will be changed to either the one employed by (OREd) or Carolina Demography. The SAPFO partners were invited to comment on this update and the Board of Commissioners is expected to make a final decision in April 2025 on which methodology is used moving forward. Either projection methodology is expected to use a student generation rate determined by the projection professionals It is anticipated the SAPFOTAC will evaluate the student generation rates used by the selected professionals for inclusion into the CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools)process. ix 18 Orange County, NC School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Introduction The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) and its Memorandum of Understanding are ordinances and agreements, respectively. Supporting documents are anticipated to be dynamic to incorporate the annual changing conditions of membership, capacity and student projections that may affect School Capital Investment Plan(CIP)timing. This formal annual report will be forthcoming to all of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners each year as new information is available. This updated information is used in the schools capital needs process of the Capital Investment Plan(Process 1) and within elements of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) spreadsheet system (Process 2). This report and any comments from the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners will be considered in the first half of each year by the Board of County Commissioners at a regular or special meeting. The various elements of the report are then"certified" and formally considered in the process of the upcoming Capital Investment Plan. The Certificate of Adequate Public Schools system is updated after November 15 when data is received from the school districts with actual membership and pre-certified capacity(i.e. CIP capacity or prior "joint action" capacity changes). The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance and Memorandum of Understanding have dynamic aspects. The derivation of the baseline and update to the variables will continue in the future as a variety of school related issues are fine-tuned by technical and policy groups. The primary facet of this report includes the creation of mathematical projections for student memberships by school levels (Elementary, Middle and High) and by School Districts (Chapel Hill/Carrboro and Orange County). This information is found in Section II, Subsections B, C, D, and E. In summary, this report serves as an update to the dynamic conditions of student membership and school capacity which affect future projected needs considered in Capital Investment Planning. Interested parties may make their comments known to the Board of County Commissioners prior to their review of the report and school CIP completion or ask questions of the SAPFOTAC members. x 19 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners Annual Report as Outlined in Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Memorandum of Understanding (SAPFO MOU) Section Id Respectfully Submitted to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District SAPFO SAPFO Board of County Commissioners Board of County Commissioners Carrboro Town Council Hillsborough Board of Commissioners Chapel Hill Town Council Chapel Hill-Carrboro School Board Orange County School Board xi 20 Planning Directors/School Representatives Technical Advisory Committee (aka SAPFOTAC) Town of Carrboro Tina Moon, Interim Planning Director 301 West Main Street Carrboro,NC 27510 Town of Chapel Hill Britany Waddell, Planning Director 405 Martin Luther King, Jr. Blvd. Chapel Hill,North Carolina 27514 Town of Hillsborough Shannan Campbell, Planning and Economic Development Manager P.O. Box 429 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Orange County Cy Stober, Planning Director Perdita Holtz, Deputy Director, Long-Range Planning Kirk Vaughn, Budget Director 131 W. Margaret Lane P.O. Box 8181 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Orange County School District Danielle Jones, Superintendent 200 E. King Street Hillsborough,NC 27278 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Nyah Hamlett, Superintendent 750 Merritt Mill Road Chapel Hill,NC 2751 xii 21 Section I L Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—Change can only be effectuated by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)by all SAPFO partners. 2. Definition —Level of Service (LOS) means the amount(level) of students that can be accommodated(serviced) at a certain school system grade group [i.e., Elementary level (K-5), Middle Level (6-8), High School Level (9-12)]. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Elementary Middle High School Elementary Middle High School 105% 107% 110% 105% 107% 110% 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District These standards are acceptable at this time. These standards are acceptable at this time. 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District No change from above standard. No change from above standard. 1 22 Section II B. Building Capacity and Membership 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) will receive requested changes that are CIP related and adopted in the prior year. CIP capacity changes will be updated along with actual membership received in November of each year. Other changes will be sent to a `Joint Action Committee' of the BOCC and Board of Education, as noted in the MOU,who will make recommendations and forward changes (on the specific forms with justification) to the full Board of County Commissioners for review and action. These non-CIP changes would be updated in the upcoming November CAPS system recalibration and included in the SAPFOTAC report. 2. Definition —For purposes of this Memorandum, "building capacity" will be determined by reference to State guidelines and the School District guidelines (consistent with CIP School Construction Guidelines/policies developed by the School District and the Board of County Commissioners) and will be determined by a joint action of the School Board and the Orange County Board of Commissioners. As used herein the term "building capacity" refers to permanent buildings. Mobile classrooms and other temporary student accommodating classroom spaces are not permanent buildings and may not be counted in determining the school districts building capacity. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The original certified capacity for each of the The original certified capacity for each of the schools was certified by the respective schools was certified by the respective superintendent and incorporated in the superintendent and incorporated in the initialization of the CAPS system(Chapel initialization of the CAPS system (Orange Hill- Carrboro School District April 29, 2002 County School District April 30, 2002 - Base) - Base) Capacity changes were made each year as Capacity changes were made each year as follows: follows: 2 23 Section II 2003: Increase of 619 at Rashkis Elementary. 2003: No net increase in capacity at 2004: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or Elementary level. No changes at Middle High School levels. School level. Increase of 1,000 at Cedar Ridge 2005: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School. High School levels. 2004: No net increase in capacity at 2006: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or Elementary level. No changes at Middle or High School levels. High School levels. 2007: An increase of 800 at the High School 2005: An increase incapacity of 100 at level with the opening of Carrboro High Hillsborough Elementary with the completion School. of renovations. 2008: An increase of 323 at the Elementary 2006: An increase in capacity of 700 at the School level due to the opening of Morris Middle School level with the completion of Grove Elementary School and the Gravelly Hill Middle School and an increase of implementation of the 1:21 class size ratio in 15 at the High School level with the temporary grades K-3 location of Partnership Academy Alternative 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or School. An increase of 2 at the Elementary High School levels. level due to a change in the capacity calculation 2010: An increase in capacity of 40 students for each grade at each school. at the High School level with Phoenix 2007: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or Academy High School becoming official high High School levels. school within the district 2008: A decrease of 228 at the Elementary 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or School level due to the implementation of the High School levels. 1:21 class size ratio in grades K-3 and an 2012: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or increase of 25 at the High School level with the High School levels. completion of the new Partnership Academy 2013: An increase in capacity of 585 students Alternative School. due to the opening of Northside Elementary 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or School. High School levels. 2014: An increase in capacity of 104 students 2010: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or due to the opening of the Culbreth Middle High School levels. School addition. 3 24 Section II 2015: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. High School levels. 2016: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2012: No changes at Elementary or Middle High School levels. School levels. A decrease of 119 at High 2017: A decrease in capacity of 165 students School level as a result of a N.C. Department of due to the implementation of the 1:20 class Public Instruction(DPI) study. size ratio in grades K-3. 2013: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2018: No changes at Elementary, Middle or High School levels. High School levels. 2014: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2019: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. High School levels. 2015: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2020: Increase of 100 seats at the High High School levels. School level due to renovations at Chapel Hill 2016: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School. No changes at Elementary or High School levels. Middle School levels. 2017: A decrease in capacity of 333 students 2021: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or due to the implementation of the 1:20 class size High School levels. ratio in grades K-3. 2022: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2018: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. High School levels. 2023: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2019: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. High School levels. 2024: The Woolpert, Inc. Facility Condition 2020: No changes at the Elementary, Middle, Assessment, which included updated capacity or High School levels. calculations,was accepted. Additionally, 2021: Increase of 500 seats at the High School space allocated to Pre-K classrooms has been level due to the Cedar Ridge High School accounted for. The updates resulted in the addition. No changes at Elementary or Middle following capacity changes: School levels. • Elementary: -349 2022: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or • Middle: +49 High School levels. • High: -274 2023: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 4 25 Section II Attachment I.B.10range County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2022-23) (P1 CDPI 3)2024: Capacity was calculated using capacity formulas. Additionally, space allocated to Pre-K classrooms has been accounted for. The updates resulted in the following capacity changes: • Elementary: +68 • Middle: +129 • High: -237 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a system to calculate capacity. Any changes system to calculate capacity. Any changes year year to year will be monitored, reviewed, and to year will be monitored, reviewed, and recorded by the SAPFOTAC on approved recorded by the SAPFOTAC on approved forms distributed to SAPFO partners and forms distributed to SAPFO partners and certified upon approval by the Board of certified upon approval by the Board of County County Commissioners each year. The Commissioners each year. The requested 2024- requested 2024-2025 capacity is noted on 2025 capacity is noted on Attachment I.B.3 Attachment I.B.4 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Accept school capacities at all levels, as Accept school capacities at all levels, as reported by CHCCS and shown in Attachment reported by OCS and shown in Attachment I.B.4. I.B.3. 5 26 Section II Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2023-24) (Page 1 of 3) lAttachment {'cnrrnl 57-.4" a$i a2k 42K 42H 42H 29L Big-a% EEFIwel C_hq4LYH N41$if. !197 J 4 aiS 4SS 455 524 11 B.6% Gindy Rrnwa 7d101G 1dd LOU 441E 4911 490 Iifm 6z.89i IIllkbL ugil 5E,I06 471 .1111 d;L* 4241 42d 41" 104.0 d Now k 1i1pe I UO,I(W $80 K9 �Ifi *X 00-3RG Porhtroys 1146,20 i7d S4* i'411 5116 No 3L3 67-9'YC RiYuPiui, ".612 565 5n3 502 5n2 502 5.q' 190.99i Tuint aDq,t Ul 3415wl30611 d lfil bE .3,3611 Twi SpONOF Hoteja)t I-Fnr Clue Mirro bbew 15.20n3 hm-ycul Lllo bound LY. -MLA 11u0 SuperinLrlulcnL-Ctr1I11td cayrw1lics as Mr1 ul 41W Scl'�'UI PwiliCI+s Thek Ricca rMew wLi1 2003 Flunnus Wld ScIviul RLFIILmiL4u[i%L JcL'IllhiLTII AdVi Wly Crimmia-u RkWor1 PTPnf:e-?q 1r194%YL11 I 9hIL1111 effikAf40 Lhald u15Llll�vd by(1)dw Sclwol CHI Uf{Z)tm wrigiNW vml01101'l llls(brim INA is ccrtl11W by 11re 00M. Jai ytHiG mllarr: P14y1 and b■r*h1p Co Icillonl :5Uv Gender¢ ale ' Chair I Llaic 6 27 Section II Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2023-24) (Page 2 of 3) Schoolis Adequate Public Facilities Ordi-nance fSAPFC) Capacity, Membership and Shoal DIzc lrk- brt n (,QIJM Schools SP,FF CA1Q5 Ylaar: N[IvenSBer 1 2U23•Neuamher 14 2424 oq ari arLtl Merr1lrerLlhi 5uhmillei dale: Novemhe 15 2h023 +�.���wI,Il11,II,;h I�f,,Slfill T III, 7111 7,LIr 7.111 TW 6M rkaIlltv=Maldlo 1117,6bU 724 721, Urr 72 72{ 535 73 755 r eAv-,Uy Fli11 123.00D 710 p{In 70U 74 711dI U .ALL 56.71S laruL 1fi,.r,7- 2,31561 7,366 R 1{,4 2 16f. 2 1&G ],474 72-ON $pBClil NOttl�d�: 1.1+SIr IIIC Nuvenl!'Ic��I S,2DIF2 knlsc}+eur Ilm hoelyd nucullleL!IIIc n11�crintclwLcnl�iel lil icd L:nlx,cill:cf IIx Llutl nfaLlc!idlrxrl I'aCI1i11ea'rnsk k'orec r¢wlc!5v Iu,d 2WF3 1'Iwlners mid Nch,,,}I rt47,I-4x¢IKIu IW7'--cNwC*i AArbxwy(NKvnrill"Rvjtwi 'nwSc iipo.,'11k v%III romild1 fiII'�- e miczl chnihsKU by(l)tiLe,4'crl,*F('11'or{2y su nwk:ihdW vcrxion ofilft Rlnn Lhad i9 coal I Icd by Ilia B(K1 U. .Jwatliltwllan: not rnWere�fflca Su InLmlydenl olr Dais 7 28 Section II Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2023-24) (Page 3 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinanan (SAPFO� Capacity, Membership and Schaal Dl*irlet. Orenso Cutirily Sctmum SAPP o CAPS Year;Noverftr 1,_2023-November 1 2024 C8 arie and DAomhanhl SubmiklPll0a%: "Owember 1s 21723 f:eelnrRlilp! 2u6LIMB r,n44 1,IHI[I 1,5eu1 1.5011 J_511(1 I,1I7 74.5% f.1nu,�e 31 s,iD'� f,.69n I..;*1'� 1.7v'1 1.7w1r 1 i•a 11 1.212 87,3 6 IwIncishlp 614.11I0 -III .111 40 -111 .1.1 -1.1 �Pf,4°la 'I'11CIIIi 427 iMl7 7:;19 2.4W11 2 9S7 ;L.9391 2 939 2 lA2 81-0% Synalwl NOW1119 I.I Apr IIIIC f%� 0Ih1wr I�,241.112 lmA -,YcIIr Llre lwlu d o IAcd Ilre aclpcliulalJcnl�rlif"cupwcilicx ua P111S of H1r Lkhl-DI Fndhillfn 114sk Ir{,14 IcwlL w ne111�13113 I'Ip111KIa a lwi 1134hWl ItcyFldolalrMivr TcCllnlcal Advleury Canm111u!a Reparl_ 7F1e5e cuporh ies Will a0lhuiuoffeL416041n1ilchmll;oJbar(II Lim khua1 CI Pur(2)anunwm&dvmionof11usform*MlownlPedbylh1 W)EN'.., JILMlfltellbbr CPPPCfIY wet berate C rtlflcall4n: Sup n ndenl Dee VCG C;h - p 8 29 Section II Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2023-24) (Page 1 of 3) tJ-1 ft Y 0f 0Z -01'6 Ig14 P.3 Sc1ioo117kehr]6t: SAPFO CAPS Vbar:Noye1'rlhnr l!'s 20;�:1 Nowt labw 1d 2024 IC o ac 11Y and rWCmb`IL1 SLIbmWal D7 La. �,%ovt rober 15.2073 CIRFFII a 6D.11S2 51B 518 SLH 51H 51.0 91.2% FgAmis 66.952 436 aN, a3b ayd 41b ,l$rj 84-4% Rsr=DOM 30.fm 516 Sib 544 $ki. 514. 30 5&7% MGMIlmn 66.86E Su 522 ix? i2Z aza 56R 27.5% Crlcnwood K OO 412 4112 412 41Z 411 411 21913% Ml;lD"Bir Oa 11ha 549 543 518 5411 54s 466 SSA% Morrla drove 4pr2#1 AIIA SIR 568 5611 ro-R 397 C9_4j% uwkekde 99.560 56F '� 568 :"I ii.% 355.754 ltbd*4 95.1M 560 SBH K69 6A SbR A29 7A%S% Scr w 46.960 SS If 558 NSA SM ffm idle 88-5% tl ! 9d ASU A R51k St1 434 9.5-i 6M1 $ 6# $ Sa d 61I 6edak 4575 d21-B Upe W H4R#(4)i 1.Vol di&NO-nd is i 1 t 2002 br Veer due rwiard acccpwd II� eqp iWsae Mort ur'b_&01 1 1.401HkrhTaRFOrsereUwrlkl2WIPLlu.%ra and SLhorbiRcpru*m1alimTechllicali1d44wt'CM7116MD5ekepolt T1c3ero2l2Iciiiclmill remain ef&cl ire usHiL rhoWd by(1)51101w1wa UIP or f 2)zif omewled sr iais of this foam duL is CcrllfWJ Uy 111C 110CU. du A4RCeliou: Capaekl d heruh1p Ceitkficatton: i �L& - parlr5l Rdelit f7nla B �hBY i�B 9 30 Section II Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity (Elementary,Middle,&High) (2023-24) (Page 2 of 3) 8ohoal CretrlcL nl NIII-CRrrbO/e c 11X Schoch SMFO CAPS Voar Nnmmr ie 1 2023'Nh e1'oher 14 2" CA5 NC I ty 91,d 1418NOW6111)511ga11rt Elir p4te: Nbvemhe.16.2va3 r,nlbLUIIL i22,467 774 774 774 774 774 h71 "IlDMFle I36,ZJk1 732 73Z 732 7J7. 732 1xN L'lhiklirm 109d,11411 7106 7N 746 794 700 Sx s ov9', Smith 126 & 732 731 7.11 7?3 732 i51 703'l: Tulia1 I 4N dJ511 2 9-k1 Z 4-Id 2 4## R 1d x"l 'z 7161 V2 3% ap.=tnl wot.I.P: I l-sx q1d rJecenl Isar L-%213112 hwc yctr rllre klewd ar a7l tdl I lmsapatiol elsdea i-rrrClfi Ed COPUV lii 0 µl p e1141 I'm lte:xllmol F—i1.1 i—Tv,k.F'ui—-ei4a'nr1J 2M Jrinrxery and 5a6onl krysrcsentainve Tenhnirtl hdvis gCmmlLhw Jtapwl. Thtx Wfw-:110€WON ro aio tJfxln^a until.chmrpcd by(L}the Sellrrol{;LP 4f(3)are amel.rlc.L Yemlon of CILLs Cntm ihnl is=Lifiad 4y Ilia WCC .!nitlllsa;Innr Cupac11 a frleYnhereFhlp CUFMIontIOM W r n14 tlnnL ❑aLe .,C.C=rXi MEL, 10 31 Section II Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2023-24) (Page 3 of 3) G aO 3 G- IApO - 9rl r0 )' Aar-NcyVmriN�r"L2021- DYDT ar •apac lY ant n ci rrs p tfu zkla iY r CRFFtw IbIt02; 8011 N14 "13 906 9a;o lktlS 111°f ChapelIall 23kjII 11511] 5aS36 1,626 1.62-11 JAN IM7 101°l Rim ChWi.Ilill 2",FAS 11515 1,1�15 1,415 1,51i 1,i15 y412 03% Pkerdx ACE& TOO 46 40 40 44 J4 35 08% ut 63 31 .3 751 —MV741 100.0% $pec1111 OSPto ■ i 1- F4w the r+tm ubh I3r 2062 bx 1'L'9r iEM Bawd wL'4'4ldvtk Iliv R%lr till,Lemd euiI rertlfwd Ca p3ci Lies nS p�r1 or e11C sk1 nl 1'ap�Hkl+C#'i'A�k}amp raelew and 2003 PlaruK"and SohLrtl RVtrk-�Melw YSCb Burl!^Lhilrxy O—Trilbm ReW. TFL'Rr rvaliw 1l Its will remain t lyrreirv1n11LcMWdby(1)111e ye1Lr.3L CIPar(2)all rmclrW verslon of Ilds fnTn Ihae n call f�o by4lx W)C - Junliiivatl6na; Capa�dM el'PI11p OorTlflaullnnc Sup1lr,nlond nt C1aLe C Cl1al Ciilc 11 32 Section II Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2024-25) (Page 1 of 3) Changg Request Form o ilr d: Unty.CTI"Is CupaciRVorsel rdffmbwnP1Irp SubmiMal DmIs rv3v&M0W :enind 52#9Q 43V aft 429 410 433 try} SI.07� 00and C MAt $4336 4M A" -kSs 45 474 914 1in.0 97adyPro" 74M45 IM 49: L911 d" 4e} W.3' HJLLborw4b 51,06 4.W 42 "o 42n 163 437 04-CA Nm Haft lG HA 62Ai 926 M $26 M 693 .AI pl*—w a K211s Ssu 946 Ra Slrl 42M 329 72VA Riva P%* 7b,9if -41 sm AN io-2 soil 521 INA Bpec[al Natels�s I rnr*h by ember 15,2042 br ye lke bard mcgsediheeuperinlendonboe tifi5dupodios of purl of" -C—k F.ute em Iwo wd 20M Pluuuep•rsd& ul d&efrrt2uuAthv Technieol kbiwry llbm iHl Repw. '1 hem mpoitir willlcm4rptMebwwilleF+IIrlL4dhp(L)IAeNd#wlOPor(4insmundej2rmimoft7iitImmdwoeerlrGedbydw6fr'— JUFilrleffit"!GdWelty upelsl A raxu ltlmg from Lrea of NG6P1 Captio tty FOrin ul as Ce maNy■wd W&E benhlp CirHlFeatlwll _ Jan]7,225 1 S far Irdew]r rA Dele r 12 33 Section II Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity (Elementary,Middle, &High) (2024-25) (Page 2 of 3) r Change Request FUFM Scnoal District, C.m-me Courd;jr. APFQ GALF4 Year: .1 tk L15i- lCgjpfir.ltV n nrf rdli-mbafship Submittrd 13ate Nwenlwf 1 J, swn,,Lk lsfouu 74u r+u 14E TiU 8b� aix 7rs erW Middle 10A.07201 `Ln 726 TY6 676 570 7 rnvell�Hill M1130 7nb Tnll wo 704 77.1 LI.I s3. i Spe,cld Hute(m)L I I-n the Krnxmter I S-2M bm ycnr IFu towd m;cp:d ft wPa rrr.rIezti-cdrlVrW 1LA citiW-I ra lmn ai tho-5choul I var a JeYlaw"Ld W11 Nlnnnera ud School RepreserRelire TedeiMI/ulriv q CUMM n Reprnt. TheW C.A C era v+Lll remain :.n5xi . i I.&"hJ l.p rl7 the sch.x l C_If'a 0)m imerded rersicm o[this&=IIxL is cwb6ed b7r du DOCC. Justlticatlan:'Capaclty update reeslltleq From UM olf MCDOO cap4t wly r4RmLillaut C;&p*ICkiW MOMh*rahlp ChrtJfleatlCWI Jan 17.2615 fiulx11.:IclrJerA ME 'r ha .0 13 34 Section II Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity (Elementary,Middle, &High) (2024-25) (Page 3 of 3) ChanI " 9J:h&0I04SIrrck "r'a - rr S a 9AP FO CAPS LYfC�.'Year_Nav 15 2J A 16,2024 e,IpfHlt. rlk 91111 l,mlr, 1,e10 I'Mil1 I,Suu k'qN 1.1411 MAY, .,rrgr. xl.7,f0� I,.k44 1,39� 1,�94 r,se9 r,Nu i,173 89.5}; NrInusLp r,,f,1111 4%r 9D aU 4Q nj do 71,93; 8peeulriete[ell1.Fur dwNvremL-:r15%X*2 tam)ur1hobcmrJarsopleddmm4nriaLavdrrw,ar%ferrlcapnrdreaanpertadw:K I Fr Rxi� TszLFar:c3cwwwwu1WPleonmrrcdkh,LdRgxmn fLYtTdmiwlA%b-iroey&nrt ibrcRW. Th-wogmciLicsME JCMRilCjr&CLivekmb7rha}grdby(1)ih>csrhoalCWLsr(2)FnMDr -f=iMofplisGerm9k.IaaCFUFLCrbythrDOM rMe to F4rtKWxhlj)-AC%d""to r4VEN't 111doW aapAalty inr"W ftallity IMOYS4 ILI ST23174}. Ce�eeliy eno hTem4erslllp GertFtica[Icn: r Jan 17,202S Irbtirdh-A ,e 6e 14 35 Section II Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity (Elementary,Middle, &High) (2024-25) (Page 1 of 3) OWLTZ Allauhmuni 1 5sllool HII-Crrrrher CI 5tl-a alc SAPPDCAPS WOOF.Havem4er 16.2 td 2025 _ and Ndmbaaship SUMMMal UWE: Nv ber i6.2 71-Url. 460 3%n 51H 531' 51A 516 SRf +S2i M.4' 4X"Mt 436 �3b #3d a-4 YA.` 44o-1 72.12 ab_44 5Ld 516 510 516 }45i Y'13 �.15 a a,9V 522 512. 522 522 54 .FLU ".1 Rk7ii7 ill a1: 412 412 ♦66 I"1"11l 54H 538 Sid 57F '�T 477 6R.:% Maros Om+n *%!- I SO 569 5{d 565 519 -"Y 72. V. 114anhsLit "F Nmi lei@ ift {a SIM 5*3 Ms 75,5% kashli. 95,724 5152 560 5ScturetawJsll t¢lsl R96,#9H 5b.% :A 4T} L9.19. 55A 551I 5 59 4tl3 3H 72.7% 458 S 4.% !A? 393 11BL2 W 56" icil I 4 3R MISA . 3PerrlillN4N�i}1.V nKW—,hmLi,DDMhd year Medarta cpr&dRicsWuNindo -aNlfirSrafxil its ao-pan vfghaSr7srtiF�ilair< 1askI'sK6r:XL4�r.4ann3PIS.WSrhRRIRr tmfflrlvvTec oLCAAdvNury-Lt�in"Vgr-W. ihane+Wu+itL will Llwipcd hy(1)iM Scbxg CIF oe12).maranileJsrrsinnoflhasfanndaiisandinl4y Ili;llfl C. 3tiki"O Ue cepeal11Y rPdabe rerwllfnR drum WDglpnrI study, C b F d fie` sk tlllaella +I+I i 1 tlr�alyri 11 Uilu r UaIP 15 36 Section II Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity (Elementary,Middle, &High) (2024-25) (Page 2 of 3) 3Chm31UYi : ChapalNil-CarMOM CRY Sohoo's 1 1 2aN-Hev9uraer r,1.2026 G I rid hlam6rr■ I ub 1 N U rt r � ... _ J'.=.ah. 174 ..a w4 7711 aSt P.2' edrUouLIM IjealI 732 73T_ TJLI 73Z 771 64K 95% Phm:r. IWAIR Tod 'AG 1106 706 734 ono 62% 6akh 31N.764 73: .. 7.11 IAA 712 165 1M% T-W tM1 $ L Rar.141 NaNl4]1 I Fw the Naoimher 11.20P21ncr year 0,Roard Beup lod&rt r u poftwn1kw-�Lnilldd*Wt.rkt T.*m oFd*SahW FZw64 l'trd farcrrnirwaml'dCr Lan[ wdSchualkqdc inwlwtVaL.*k.lAJrld.ayl'ii min Rqk .7lytppleilka -illml in4M-oiciiniIYdwµ-d 115 (I)tar SihmdOF Q{2l r anitm"Lrrai,,a ur 1a1.62111 Ur I I.WISMinl Ily 1111 JUSIHleailoenr Capuolly ujIdnle r Ldtleg trmn Waalpmet iludy, C Ity CI l ahlrp CEP ipliwiie.l_ F� Qri1f4 1'2 ddlt W CI L:.:: 16 37 Section II Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity (Elementary,Middle, &High) (2024-25) (Page 3 of 3) Rqquvrn Form +jeel.n 5""sowAlp ISAIPF0 r F Yelr Llawnlber i is "a Id-NwwMar 14,2Wb Lzy2aY and ilamkiamyp SVEmiNdl Da{i: i4chmmodw 15,2024 {�i1llxou I AO M11 U11 HI.I. F11 NO II}',Y, t cl lldl 1+1_311 LS3u ] III I,I.lP 1 G.n i,t�c. 1,6Or, 145% ape Vw L'hl IL.n �S+xr+1 IS 45 I.t V; 1,511. 1.511, 1,11t� I,414 11 ic:IIllrr Eradc 5J1vud ail 0 41, 2U J.. 4¢ ■11 I4u'r-1 lilel 04.21U 3675 3,975 'J 1175 3 ?5 3 1 OE�54 SPE131e1 Platel K I. Fw ahr N11m111IKr 31,21o'hpr ymr Ur A-11 uxylldlhC WE%Ml o_iliI[IIL rulirin]L.�lla&!llwi impn dihe 51110-*Fuawiir IS&1'afiedeki!WiIWWU}YlaweiimdScbo.4Y,.t[tlCwim%e7LC11111idALL%N,r twmi;0LIkwil. 111C�CCjfuCIIuslIIi1T=iIIPfIEwLe11miI thmpd fy[7 L the S.�ool 4'1P or q2]o n aminled t roin o of 1iri1(r-rm tlu 1 1s ren�fin14 r 1he Il11CY' J441�147�LR�r f.41 r.IC WfdnR1r"mgAIIm!j hvm Yfa41pwF iSw u cll i Nrrl.hayshlp��ril aiian= 3-JIr+11n1 nM mu, 99C CClulr Itau 17 38 Section II C.Membership Date 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—Change can be effectuated only by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)by all SAPFO partners. The Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)may advise if a change in date would improve the reporting or timeliness of the report. 2. Definition —The date at which student membership is calculated. This date is updated each year and also serves as the basis for projections along with the history from previous years. "For purposes of this Memorandum, the term "school membership" means the actual number of students attending school as of November 15 of each year. The figure is determined by considering the number of students enrolled(i.e. registered, regardless of whether a student is no longer attending school) and making adjustments for withdrawals, dropouts, deaths, retentions and promotions. Students who are merely absent from class on the date membership is determined as a result of sickness or some other temporary reason are included in school membership figures. Each year the School District shall transmit its school membership to the parties to this agreement no later than five (5) school days after November 15. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District November 15 of each year November 15 of each year 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: This can be analyzed in the future years to determine if it is an exemplary date. 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District No change at this time. No change at this time. 18 39 Section II II. Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) after review of the CIP requests from the School Districts. Action regarding CIP programs usually occurs during the BOCC budget Public Hearing process in the winter and spring of each year. The development of the CIP considers the conditions noted in the SAPFOTAC report released in the same CIP development year including LOS (level of service), capacity, and membership projections. 2. Definition —The process and resultant program to determine school needs and provide funding for new school facilities through a variety of funding mechanisms. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Not Applicable Not Applicable 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: The MOU outlines a system of implementing the SAPFO, including issuing Certificates of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) to new development if capacity is available. The Requests for CAPS will be evaluated using the most recently adopted Capital Investment Plan. A new Capital Investment Plan is currently under development for approval prior to June 30, 2025. 5. Recommendation: Not subject to staff review 19 40 Section II B. Student Membership Projection Methodology 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—This section is reviewed and recommended by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)to the BOCC for change, if necessary. 2. Definition —The method(s)by which student memberships are calculated for future years to determine total membership at each combined school level (Elementary, Middle, and High School)which take into consideration historical membership totals at a specific time (November 15) in the school year. These methods are also known as 'models'. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Presently, the average of five models is being used: namely 3, 5, and 10-year history/cohort survival methods, Orange County Planning Department Linear Wave, and Tischler Linear methods. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Performance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model is in its prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity shortfalls so the annual Capital Investment Plan(CIP)updates can respond proactively with siting, design, and construction. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. Attachment II.B.3 shows the performance of the models for the 2024-25 school year from the prior year projection. Analysis on the accuracy of the results is showing fairly accurate results, particularly for the average of all five models. Orange County Schools has lower enrollment numbers than 10 years ago at all three school levels (Elementary, Middle, and High). Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools has lower enrollment numbers than 10 years ago at the Elementary and Middle levels while the High School level has experienced enrollment growth over the past 10 years. The historic growth rate is recorded by the models,but projected future growth is more difficult to accurately quantify. In all areas of the county,proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system 20 41 Section II until actual students are enrolled. The system is updated in November of each year, becoming part of the historical projection base. S. Recommendation: In 2023, each school district contracted with NC State's Operations Research and Education Laboratory(OREd)to complete a"Land Use Study" and student membership projections. OREd's projection model includes a forecasting component whereas the SAPFO model is mathematically based using historical data and accepted projection methodologies. In December 2024, the Board of County Commissioners authorized notification to the parties of the SAPFO MOU that the student projection methodology will be changed to either the one employed by(OREd) or Carolina Demography. The SAPFO partners were invited to comment on this update and the Board of Commissioners is expected to make a final decision in April 2025 on which methodology is used moving forward. 21 42 STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION 1 CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS � O Tischler Linear(OCS& Mathematical formula;straight line projection yW'((c"b)*x)+b Historical growth is reflected in projected growth ti CHCCS) y=projected population;c=historical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years BYM+(BYI+5(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o o increase in BYI of 5 every other year reflects (OCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year; /oSL=/o of total increases in housing growth; reflects buildout membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year constraints member by school level BYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment OCP Linear Wavy Mathematical linear with percent variation among school decrease in BYI of 15 until school year 2010-2011 (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year;%SL=%of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year bu€Idout constraints member by school level Kn=kn.t+(kn.,*0.01) Mathematical formula that computes the average nm1 advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(E G I g,r)13 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the rD 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=3 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same 'r CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n_1(a) percentage of students in each grade level ,~- kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year b7 andlor historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average ~ advancement rate;b=projected membership l i✓ Kn=k�-s+(kmj*0.01) Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(E Gn 1 gn.t)!5 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the A 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g,,,,(a) percentage of students in each grade level eD kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average Z' advancement rate;b=projected membership 'tz Kn=knA+(k�r'0.01) n Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 advancement rate overthe previous 10 years For each a=(E Gn 19,1)110 Assumes a I%annual growth rate for the 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=10 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed burg n-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year and/or histor€pl growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average ►�' advancement rate;b=projected membership Attachment II.B.2 —Student Membership Projection Models Performance AnalysiW023-24) Section II (Page t of 4) Orange County School District School Mem rship 2023-2024 School Year November 15, 2023 11/15/22 2023 Report 11/15/23 Actual Projection for Actual Change between actual 2022-23 2023-24 2023-24 Nov 2021 - Nov 2022 Elementary 3059 3055 -4 Model Projection is T 3038 L17 OCP 3040 L15 10C 3083 H28 5C 3088 H33 3C 3066 H11 Avera a 3063 H8 11/15/22 11/15/23 Middle 1598 1579 -19 Model Projection is T 1587 H8 OCP 1648 H69 10C 1576 L3 5C 1563 L16 3C 1568 L11 Avera a 1588 H9 11/15/22 11/15/23 High 2487 2382 -105 Model Projection is T 2470 H88 OCP 2415 H33 10C 2445 H63 5C 2452 H70 3C 2451 H69 Avera a 2446 H64 Totals 11/15/22 11/15/23 Elementary 3059 3055 Middle 1598 1579 High 2487 2382 Total 7144 7016 -128 Model Projection is T 7095 H79 OCP 7103 H87 10C 7104 H88 5C 7103 H87 3C 7085 H69 Average 7097 H81 H means High L means Low 23 44 Section II Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2023-24) (Page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2023-2024 School Year (November 15, 2023) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C)3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 17 students below to 33 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 9 students above actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 4 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. Middle School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 3 students below to 69 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 9 students above actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 19 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. High School Level • Projections were high, ranging from 33 students to 88 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 64 students above actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 105 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 69 to 88 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 81 students above actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 128 students, which is the sum of-4 at Elementary, -19 at Middle, and -105 at High. 24 Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analys) (2023-24) 4( age 3 of 4) Section II Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2023-2024 School Year (November 15, 2023) 11/15/22 2023 Report 11/15/23 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2022 - Nov 2023 2022-23 2023-24 2023-24 Elementary 4657 4575 -82 Model Projection is T 4624 H49 OCP 4588 H13 10C 4582 H7 5C 4561 L14 3C 4550 L25 Avera a 4581 H6 11/15/22 11/15/23 Middle 2798 2716 -82 Model Projection is T 2778 H62 OCP 2742 H26 10C 2685 L31 5C 2683 L33 3C 2660 L56 Avera a 2710 L6 11/15/22 11/15/23 Hi h 3950 3974 + 24 Model Projection is T 3922 L52 OCP 3860 L114 10C 3923 L51 5C 3938 L36 3C 1 3925 1 L49 Average 3914 L60 Totals 11/15/22 11/15/23 Elementary 4657 4575 Middle 2798 2716 High 3950 3974 Total 11,405 11,265 - 140 Model Projection is T 11,324 H59 OCP 11,190 L75 10C 11,190 L75 5C 11,182 L83 3C 11,135 L 130 Average 11,205 L60 H means High L means Low 25 46 Section II Attachment IL13.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2023-24) (Page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2023-2024 School Year (November 15, 2023) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT 3C Elementary School Level • Projections were mixed ranging from 25 students below to 49 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 6 students above the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 82 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. Middle School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 56 students below to 62 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 6 students below the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 82 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. High School Level • Projections were low, ranging from 36 students to 114 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 60 students below actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 24 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were mixed, ranging from 130 students below to 59 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 60 students below the actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 140 students, which is the sum of-82 at Elementary, -82 at Middle, and +24 at High. 26 Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analys47(2024-25) Section II (Page 1 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2024-2025 School Year (November 15, 2024) 11/15/23 2024 Report 11/15/24 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2023 - Nov 2024 2023-24 2024-25 2024-25 Elementary 3055 2994 -61 Model Projection is T 3032 H38 OCP 3025 H31 10C 2987 L7 5C 2990 L4 3C 3020 H26 Avera a 3011 H17 11/15/23 11/15/24 Middle 1579 1582 +3 Model Projection is T 1567 L15 OCP 1564 L18 10C 1577 L5 5C 1569 L13 3C 1585 H3 Avera a 1572 L10 11/15/23 11/15/24 High 2382 2369 -13 Model Projection is T 2364 L5 OCP 2359 L10 10C 2383 H13 5C 2392 H23 3C 2386 H17 Avera a 2377 H8 Totals 11/15/23 11/15/24 Elementary 3055 2994 Middle 1579 1582 High 2382 2369 Total 7016 6945 -71 Model Projection is T 6963 H18 OCP 6948 H3 10C 6947 H2 5C 6951 H6 3C 6991 H46 Average 6960 H15 H means High L means Low 27 48 Section II Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2024-25) (Page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2024-2025 School Year (November 15, 2024) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 7 students below to 38 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 17 students above actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 61 students between November 15, 2023 and November 15, 2024. Middle School Level • Projections were mostly low, ranging from 18 students below to 3 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 10 students below actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 3 students between November 15, 2023 and November 15, 2024. High School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 10 students below to 23 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 8 students above actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 13 students between November 15, 2023 and November 15, 2024. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 2 to 46 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 15 students above actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 71 students, which is the sum of-61 at Elementary, +3 at Middle, and -13 at High. 28 Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analyst (2024-25) 4QL Tage 3 of 4) Section II Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2024-2025 School Year (November 15, 2024) 11/15/23 2024 Report 11/15/24 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2023 - Nov 2024 23-24 2024-25 2024-25 Elementary 4575 4518 - 57 Model Projection is T 4538 H2O OCP 4454 L64 10C 4375 L143 5C 4374 L144 3C 4440 L78 Avera a 4436 L82 11/15/23 11/15/24 Middle 2716 2656 -60 Model Projection is T 2694 H38 OCP 2644 L12 10C 2659 H3 5C 2652 L4 3C 2697 H41 Avera a 2669 H13 11/15/23 11/15/24 High 3974 3958 -16 Model Projection is T 3942 L16 OCP 3869 L89 10C 3933 L25 5C 3933 L25 3C 3953 L5 Average 3926 L32 Totals 11/15/23 11/15/24 Elementary 4575 4518 Middle 2716 2656 High 3974 3958 Total 11,265 11,132 - 133 Model Projection is T 11,174 H42 OCP 10,967 L165 10C 10,967 L165 5C 10,959 L173 3C 11,090 L42 Average 11,031 L101 H means High L means Low 29 50 Section II Attachment II.13.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2024-25) (Page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2024-2025 School Year (November 15, 2024) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT 3C Elementary School Level • Projections were mostly low, ranging from 144 students below to 20 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 82 students below the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 57 students between November 15, 2023 and November 15, 2024. Middle School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 12 students below to 41 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 13 students above the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 60 students between November 15, 2023 and November 15, 2024. High School Level • Projections were low, ranging from 5 students to 89 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 32 students below actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 16 students between November 15, 2023 and November 15, 2024. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were mostly low, ranging from 173 students below to 42 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 101 students below the actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 133 students, which is the sum of-57 at Elementary, -60 at Middle, and -16 at High. 30 51 Section II C. Student Membership Projections 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report certifications. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition —The result of the average of the five student projection models represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level (Elementary, Middle, and High) for each school district(Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District and Orange County School District). 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The 5 model average discussed in Section II.B The 5 model average discussed in Section (Student Projection Methodology). See II.B (Student Projection Methodology). See Attachment II.C.4 Attachment II.C.3 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show a decrease and negative growth rate for all three school levels in Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools in the 10-year projection period. Orange County Schools (OCS)projections show a relatively flat rate of growth at Elementary level, with an overall increase of only 19 students in the 10-year projection period. At the Middle and High School levels, OCS projections show a negative growth rate. Attachment II.C.3 and Attachment II.C.4 show year-by-year percent growth and projected level of service (LOS). The projection models were updated using current(November 15, 2024) memberships. Ten years of student membership were projected thereafter. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Elementary The previous year(2023-24)projections for November 2024 at this level were overestimated by 82 students. The actual membership decreased by 57 students. Over the past ten years, this level 31 52 Section II has experienced a decrease in nine out of ten school years, including this year. Growth rates during the past ten years have ranged from -8.76%to+1.20%. Capacity was decreased by 349 students in 24-25 as a result of accepting the capacities calculated by the Woolpert, Inc. study. The need for an additional elementary school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. Middle The previous year(2023-24)projections for November 2024 for this level were overestimated by 13 students. The actual membership decreased by 60 students. Over the past ten years, this level has shown varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from-4.17%to +3.53%. Capacity was increased by 49 students in 24-25 as a result of accepting the capacities calculated by the Woolpert, Inc. study. The need for an additional middle school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. High School The previous year(2023-24)projections for November 2024 for this level were underestimated by 32 students. The actual membership decreased by 16 students. Over the past ten years, this level has shown varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from -0.90 to +4.39%. Capacity was decreased by 274 students in 24-25 as a result of accepting the capacities calculated by the Woolpert, Inc. study. The need for additional high school capacity at Carrboro High School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. Orange County School District Elementary The previous year(2023-2)4 projections for November 2024 at this level were overestimated by 17 students. Actual membership decreased by 61 students. Over the past ten years, this level experienced varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this period have ranged from -5.72%to+1.81%. Capacity was increased by 68 students in 24-25 as a result of recalculating capacities to reflect NCDPI capacity formulas. The need for an additional Elementary School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. Middle The previous year(2023-24) projections for November 2024 for this level were underestimated by 10 students. The actual membership increased by 3 students. Over the past ten years, this level has experienced varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this period have ranged from -6.18%to+2.83%. The need for an additional Middle School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. 32 53 Section II High School The previous year(2023-24)projections for November 2024 for this level were overestimated by 8 students. The actual membership decreased by 13 students. Over the past ten years, this level has experienced varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this period ranged from- 4.22% to+3.35%. Capacity was decreased by 237 students in 24-25 as a result of recalculating capacities to reflect NCDPI capacity formulas. The need for an additional high school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. 5. Recommendation: Use statistics as noted in 3 above 33 54 .1. ad 1, 16 IN 11 t 1 M41 W1 J ixi !AI J3L JA' NNI. J.I:. im . 3311. jm:. iM. J21 I 19t. I JIM .4�' W 111j 3! do* ithh! ±a I s d ..:j Wj oil �.j j f "I M4 iddIl d" I Lr4 'W -'W W --4 lZ -.-A-4 L-16 k M K X1;rk 3" M*X tn;' X�.:k WJJ 39 ZIA �31IAI ?"S FA�: &.1A �2" M"I AU-M =X1 XMIL a a I J.. I.. 3W ? 2,111 310 JIM �Idd. Jim 31M 3111111 ;-1W jIW L� L39� .:I IDII 331PI 41 d 3.1-P 2.11P UH- .1-4 3.41 33td. 3,31 im UP h—t—r.—F3.1 01 �srN aw4 KZN 3aW CV. 4:Wd 5M4 -L 4 vq: :3-r�.l CCC 04 fD W� awl Dld�. mr-I! 211� MI; xe� �44 X:� mia M� M­ ................ n r! �11 im! Ltpi mf �zq !'�-j 3W clm4 i m4 W21 4xrlt oxml nn LoL%j tw.4 55 ® M M Im. km jai�� � 4.m I os®o� �� � dQ -Al ..YiJ I i hk© 1.o A .,ij 3ft�� �0® rPiJ1 i b'd .4' Id J4 CD � T i ®��� 4JN 41-1 ® 1 W, Ip4 in-J� �� �� 56 Gr5 awolm I Vd.11�®W11149 mm ® ® Mix kw e.-P. ymi; �ml Zu Z= 10—"h M 2aM UQ Z911 � kn in MI. —V Im. -AT, .0 T0, OCV&UdIMPFQ*j�GnI4t I *dd. �0� wl�v M111.11 71&7 017-5 MIU, wlll� �I M� =Z '41 liml 1,�w I TAW i I �I I-MI ZIMI zlia 1 2.1m 2.1 1. z'" lit 11a —1 2"" ..... ...... xv. �L.. LA h WAI N�I I M� '-YA T) ti, EE— OCS Doom P(Ojfcwqs 111 1.115 ZI&19 �WIT �!T-m 01� wliM �x �11 �a Mix a 77m L 21� k 2� 2� IM ;mlm m MA rM t* im IA 1�11 e-mr"Mr,roWINE MITI r_r_ff"nff^" ®mom�mo�.m EFEMERM ®mm�.�momm �`TJ�.•TTr`T+*- r-^��pS�i���Y�i�i1l�[iJf iCl s.'�.S�11 i.1�1�1�J JJ�JJJ:C�JJJC�JJJC��F�JJR:J JRTiJJ��JF�i3 E97�fsl7�C1i iG�s7 f!'��S1fS'aik3 rTT�iJ�l1�!JJJJJiJ JJJJJILI�iJJJJJJC:JJi JJJJJJfCJJJJJJi!lJiW OfJJi JJJJJJL�JJJJIJJJJJJJ.1�] JJJJ�JJJJ[aJJLr�JJV.'i;C'i�.,��'JE��JLQ�J�� 58 Section H A Student Membership Growth Rate 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) each year and referred to the BOCC for annual report certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition —The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections resulting from the average of the five models represented by 10-year numerical membership projections by school level for each school district. This does not represent the year-by- year growth rate that may be positive or negative,but rather the average of the annual anticipated growth rates over the next 10 years. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District See Attachment II.D.2 See Attachment II.D.2 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The membership figures and percentage growth The membership figures and percentage on the attachments show a decline in student growth on the attachments show a decline membership at each school level within the in student membership at each school system. Projected Average Annual Growth Rate level within the system. Projected over next ten years: Average Annual Growth Rate over next ten years: School Year Projection Made School Year Projection Made 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2024- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2024- Level 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Level 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Elementary -0.23% -0.88% -0.47% -1.14% -0.37% Elementary -0.02% -0.04% 0.26% -0.14% -0.10% Middle -1.50% -2.10% -1.77% -1.96% -1.24% Middle -0.67% -0.72% -0.15% -0.44% -0.52% High -1.44% 1 -2.15% 1 -2.09% -1.83% -1.74% High -0.98% -1.06% 0.98% -0.91% -0.10% 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Use statistics as noted for this year. In Use statistics as noted for this year. In December 2024, the Board of County December 2024, the Board of County Commissioners authorized notification to the Commissioners authorized notification to parties of the SAPFO MOU that the student the parties of the SAPFO MOU that the projection methodology will be changed to either student projection methodology will be the one employed by (OREd) or Carolina changed to either the one employed by 38 59 Section II Demography. The SAPFO partners were invited (OREd) or Carolina Demography. The to comment on this update and the Board of SAPFO partners were invited to comment Commissioners is expected to make a final on this update and the Board of decision in April 2025 on which methodology is Commissioners is expected to make a used moving forward. final decision in April 2025 on which methodology is used moving forward. 39 60 �o 2023-2024 Orange Counter Student Projections �Iemkmtary SOW[Year 2023-2024 2024. 202& 2029. 2027. 2029, 2629- 2VO, Ml- 2032. :N actual l 2026 20 G 2G27 2028 2024 703G 2031 20C47 2Q33 2{u MernbffGh1 3.o� 3 o 1 k 2'65 2 9M 2.9t34 1 2.9�0 2 9e;I i 37:. 2 9d5 2 9% 3,012 Avers a 9b IncFeas9 -0.1311ra •1.4 4% -0.85% -0.49% .40.214. 415+090 0.M% 0.5+0% 0.34% 13.115% 1 0-52% Middle 7� ScHaad Ysi[ 24�-21y24 2024- 2026- 2021� 1 Z7- 2=8- 2M- 2080- 2031- 2032- � (#ckwi) 2026 2M 2027 20d9 2029 2.O30 2031 2092 2033 2964 y � hlam} rw�d , 1 7,1 i.1.72 I.5Af. 1.=,43 1 '411 Average°oIncrease -1 194, -0.42S 0.88% 0.43Q0 1.92�v 1.474u -0-98°� 4.5#i°o 1.25�aI 5.34Re 0.6N >v Hi h School 2023.2024 2024- 20215- 2026- 2027. 2029- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2032• 2033- actual m6 2026 2027 2M 2029 203[1 2031 2m 2m 2OU hlHffib9f9hl 2,362 2:fir 2,366 2 2S�r 2.2m 2' -8 2 250 51 2,229 104 172Av�ra 1e�grease ,7 27°0 03"0 2,9596 -2 Qd�o l}48 -0 k1 -0 77°vOP SQ4% �22� .p 196 -0 55°a �+ - O I Chapel dill; arrboro Student Projections o El�mentary D A 201-2021 2024- 2a25. 2028. 202T. 202B. 2029- 2650. 2431. 2032- 2o33- School Year N (� astuil 2026 2029 2027 2028 20292A30 2031 2032 2035 2434 o O Mewoersbl 575 4.136 4 I l 4.191 4,134 4.0$9 4.048 48 4.053 4,057 4.QkA 4,074 >r Avg 9�IncreBse 1 -1.7A% =3.034b 3.28 a -2.3v" •138% •205% •O021is 0.11% d_1095 0.it% o95% � Middle a+ � 2023-2024 2nd- 202&- 202& 2027- 202& 2029- 2WU-- 20 f- 2032- 2033- O ¢ School Y"F 1:1 uld} 2026 2026 202T 2= 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 20U F.1c�r7nc snl 2 7 2.t.6�1 1 2.61i.1 2,5'30 2,504 1 2,4&J 2.359 2_;�H 1 22N 2,2 2,226 � >v Avers °o Increase 2 9A -1 72% -1.8^ -1 10% -3.3 % -1.7M -4.04% -2�16 -3.89% 4.O22 {113% Hi h $Ghcc1 W x 2023-20214 2024- 2425- N26- 2027- 2029- 2029- 2030- 2as1- 2032- 20M � 8ck3oal YsiF sttuikl 2025 20a 2021 2028 2m 2030 2031 2US2 20.95 2�3# P.1em .El 7.1 4� 1; .yud 14 1 ' 1.741 3 m I_ ;m72 3.531 3.47C _3.34 r _3.2d'4 � "s! Average#a anewse UM, -1.20% 13.55% -2.54% 1.694b -1.r -2 15°"0 -i 90°b I W -9 72R$ 2.94� � C � O O C rr O � � N O W O N �' 61 �o 2024-2025 . Orange County Student Projections Elomentary SchwIYear F2.9 d2S 2026- 2d26- 2027- 2028- 2020- W30- 2031- 20 - 2023- 20 t 20 My 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 4 2035 Wmbersh 2.945 2.923 2.915 2,898 2,'002 2,915 2,924 2.934 2.64a 2.964 � Aver-age% Increase -2.00% -1.64% -0.73% -0.29% -0.%% 0.11% 0AE% 0.319E 0.35% 0.48% 0.53% y e A Middle � M.a-2023 X;M- 20X- 21027- 2028- 202B- 2030- 2031- 2032- 3033- 2034- 18choo I Yu r (an"11 20129 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 m 32 2033 2034 435 M�-.m0EK M 1.5U 1,59 5 1.601 1.561 1 `L 4 1 521 1.510 1.99 1,466 1,493 1,500 Avgr i3ge , Increase 0 19% 0 84°b 4 -2 5$i. -1 69% -0 W% -0.7Z% -1.35% -0.23% 0 de% 0.51% e rfl Hi h S-chool �, i-4 Schoo I Year 2024-202 5 M25- 2026- 2027• 2028• 2029• 2030- 2031• 2032- 2033- 2094 0 1 actual 2026 2027 2029 2029 2030 2031 2032 2R33 2034 2M B O A19me, 2,369 2 317 2260 Z 274 2,270 2.Z60 2,254 2 221 2,151 2,152 N A e%Increase -0.5 •2.119% -2.41% 0.64Jh 719'A •0.43$h 4.299h -1.fi6°o =7.8L1$5 -4.80$u -0.40?5 rj aq Chapel HillICarrboro Student Projections w o Elements ffij4 025- 2026- 2027- 20128 2202B- 2030- 2031- 2032- 2033- 2034- SshaolYoar 026 2{�7 2020 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 hie mor K rrl d?d 4 300 4 326 4 265 4 281 4 292 4 302 4 31�' 4 329 4 350O� % -1.44% -0.7 -1.�9b 03M 0.26% 1 0.24% 0.2:6% 02Rk 1 0,4a% � C� H+ A� Middle 5chonIYear 2024•5024 202$• 2020- 2027- 202a- Mn- 2030- 2034- 2032- W33- 2034 N x wtmll 2026 2021 2028 2029 2030 20,91 2032 2031 20M 2035 Wa4basto 21556 Z603 2,576 Z 505 2,474 Z398 2,369 2 309 2 325 ZM3 Z349fD A Aver a% Inmam -2.21% -1.98% -1.04% -2.66% -1.35% -3.0!9% 1.24�6 -2.53% 1 0.73% 1 0.32% 0.45% S � Hi h Si,-hafll o 5chonlYear 24-2025 MZ- 3026- 2Q7• 2020- 2029- 3030- 203t- I 290U, 2"3- 2034- (actuall 1 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 20 8 1 2034 2031 mamhff 3,958 1 3 915 1 3,8103 1 3,741 1 3,650 13 5951 3,541 1 3 50.5 1 3 400 1 1.343 3 322 C � Avxr a% Inem wa -0.40% -U35% •2.53% -1.98% -1.64% -2.30% -1.49% -0 93% 1 -3.O % -1.67% -0196% 4A s?. N 'r N � O 62 Section II E. Student / Housing Generation Rate 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition — Student generation rate refers to the number of public school students per housing unit constructed in each school district, as defined in the Student Generation Rate Study completed by TisherBise on October 28, 2014. Housing units include single-family detached, single family attached/duplex, multifamily, and manufactured homes. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District See Attachment II.E.1 See Attachment II.E.1 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: At the January 2014 SAPFOTAC meeting, members discussed the increased number of students generated in both school districts from new development,particularly multifamily housing. The SAPFOTAC recommended further evaluation of the adopted Student Generation Rates and the impacts the number of bedrooms a particular housing type may have on student generation rates. As a result, Orange County entered into a contract with TischlerBise to update the student generation rate analysis. The new student generation rates were approved on May 19, 2015 and are shown in Attachment II.E.1. New rates from the 2014 Student Generation Rates for Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District Report are based on an inventory of recently built units from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013. It should be noted that students are generated from new housing as well as from existing housing where new families have moved in. The CAPS system estimates new development impacts and associated student generation,but it is important to understand that student increases are a composite of both of these factors. This effect can be dramatic and can vary greatly between areas and districts where either new 42 63 Section II housing is dominant or new families move into a large inventory of existing housing stock. 5. Recommendation: In December 2024, the Board of County Commissioners authorized notification to the parties of the SAPFO MOU that the student projection methodology will be changed to either the one employed by (OREd) or Carolina Demography. The SAPFO partners were invited to comment on this update and the Board of Commissioners is expected to make a final decision in April 2025 on which methodology is used moving forward. Either projection methodology is expected to use a student generation rate determined by the projection professionals It is anticipated the SAPFOTAC will evaluate the student generation rates used by the selected professionals for inclusion into the CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools) process. 43 64 o' ti TischlerBise Student Generation Fates — 2014 Chapel Hill/ arrboro Schools 0-3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5+Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Detached 0.61 0.84 1.13 0.64 4-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Attached 0.27 0.42 0.38 Multifamilyl0ther 0.11 0_47 0.18 Manur ctured Horne 0.265 0.78 Weight Average tar Chapel H irUGarrboro School district 0.49 � Orange County Schools 0-3 Bedrooms d Bedraaans 6+ Radrooms Weighted Average •~ Single-Family Detached 0.35 057 0.57 0.44n �s U-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms Weighted Average � Single-Family Attached 0.07 0.17 0.15 c Mulfifamilylother 0.00 0.67 0.17 ¢ Manufactured Home 0.67 0.47 0.52 � Weight Average for Orange County School District 0.37 Ssri,rsx.SLUJ=Gmffal im Rai fcrt{}rengc CAY=y Sehovl D'enrict and Cbepel I I ill rbvrc School N=ia.TL hkrBi*c.OL'-wbeEZ8,N 14 0 R.e++i4ed 1,+l�y 7,�f115 � Qn Qn � N O CI1 65 Section II III. Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process Abstract: The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance process has two distinct components: A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (Process 1) Timeframe: In November of each year, Student Membership and Building Capacity is transmitted from the school districts to the Orange County Board of Commissioners for consideration and approval and used in the following years CIP (e.g. November 15, 2023 membership numbers used to develop a CIP to be considered for adoption in June 2024). Process Framework I. SAPFOTAC projects future student membership from historical data, current membership and hypothetical growth rates from established methodologies. 2. School Districts and BOCC compare projections to existing capacity and proposed Capital Investment Plan. 3. SAPFOTAC forwards data and projections to all SAPFO partners. 4. School Districts develop Capital Investment Plan Needs Assessment during this process 5. The Capital Investment Plan work sessions and Public Hearings are conducted by the BOCC in the spring of each year. 6. The adoption of CIP that sets forth monies and timeframe for school construction (future capacity)by BOCC. 45 66 Section III School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process 1 - Capital Investment Planning (CIP) Projection Method 1 CIP Approval CAPS System (Historical Membership (Proposed new construction (Certificate of Adequate plus Hypothetical Growth i.e. school capacity added by Public Schools) Rate) number of seats and year) Actual Adjustments (Current year actual replaces y past year membership projections) a 'Historical Membership is a product of students generated from: (1)pre-existing/approved undeveloped lots where new housing is c built, (2) existing housing stock with new families/children, and(3)newly approved housing development(in the future this component will be known as CAPS approved development). n 2The only part of the CAPS System (i.e., computer spreadsheet subdivision tracking)that receives data from the Process 1 CIP a includes the actual membership (November 15 of preceding CIP year) and new school capacity amount (seats) in a specific year pursuant to the CIP. a -s 0 46 67 Section III B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Update (Process 2) Timeframe: The CAPS system is updated approximately November 15 of each year when the school districts report actual membership and `pre-certified' capacity, whether it is CIP associated or prior `joint action' agreement. `Joint action' determinations of changes in capacity due to State rules or other non-construction related items are anticipated to be done prior to the November 15 capacity and membership reporting date. This update may reflect the Board of County Commissioners action on the earlier year Capital Investment Plan(CIP) as it affects capacity and addition of new actual fall membership. The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) stays in effect until the following year —(e.g.: November 15, 2005 to November 14, 2006). New development is originally logged for a certain year. As the CAPS system is updated, each CAPS projection year is `absorbed' by the actual estimate of a given year. Later year CAPS projections of the same development remain in the future year CAPS system accordingly. For example, if a 50-lot subdivision is issued a CAPS, 15 lots may be assigned to "Year 1," 10 lots to "Year 2," 10 lots to "Year 3," 10 lots to "Year 4," and 5 lots to "Year 5." When"Year 1" is updated, the students generated from the 15 lots are absorbed by the actual estimate. The students generated in"Years 2, 3, 4, and 5" are held in the CAPS system and added to the appropriate year when the CAPS system is updated. The City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO and does not require that CAPS be issued prior to approving development activities. Increasing development within this area of the county has the potential to encumber a significant portion of the available capacity within the Orange County School District. Although the SAPFO system is not formally regulated in Mebane, staff monitors development activity and when students enter the school system, their enrollment is calculated and used in future school projection needs. Please note that the two processes (CIP and CAPS) are on separate, but parallel tracks. However, the CIP does create a crossover of capacity information between the two processes. For example, the SAPFO system for both school districts that will be established/initiated/ 47 68 Section III certified each year in November and is based on prior year created and/or planned CIP capacity and current school year membership. The SAPFOTAC report including new current year membership and projections are to be used for upcoming CIP development as noted in Process 1. CIP Process 1 (for CIP 2024 - 2034) November 2022—June 2023 (using 2023 SAPFOTAC Report) SAPFO CAPS Process 2 (for SAPFO System 2024—2025) November 2023 -November 2024 48 69 School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process 2 - Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Allocation 2024 CAPS system is effective November 15, 2023 through November 14, 2024. The system is updated with new membership, CIP capacity changes, and any other BOCC/School District joint action approved capacity prior to November 15, 2023. This information is received within 5 days of November 15 and posted within the next 15 days. This CAPS system recalibration is retroactive to November 15, 2023. CAPS Allocation System CAPS System2 1. Certified Capacity AC = SC — (ADM+NDI+ND2+. . .) b 2 LOS Capacity o 3. Actual Membership y 4. Year Start Available Capacity N 5. Ongoing Current Available Capacity(includes available n capacity decreases from approved CAPS development by year) 6. CAPS approved development AC>_0 - Issue CAPS a. Total units b. Single Family' AC<0 - Defer CAPS to later date C. Other Housing' c b 'Student Generation Rates from CAPS housing type create future membership estimate. Please note that this CAPS membership future estimate is c different than the projection based on historical data and projection models used in the CIP process 1. This estimate only captures new development impact,which is the component that the SAPFO can regulate. 0 a AC—Available Capacity- Starts at Annual Update Capacity and reduces as CAPS approved development is entered into the system. SC—Certified School Level Capacity n ADM—Average Daily Membership Y ND—New Development;ND means first approved CAPS approved development 49 1 • Annual Change-increase(Decrease)in Actual&Projected Membenhip) IMI N m r of Students,Actual and Projected,• ��1��I�mI��I�E�1�m1�E�11��1�QI��I�Q±l1�6flI�E3311��1��1�ml��l� 7r71� 1��1��1 ��1�6n1�m1� 1��1�®1��1��1�FFE�II�FFF111�Fm11�®1�rZF71�ra71�fm1�F�F711� 1� 1�FFfl1��1��1 Annual Change-increase(Decrease)in Actual&Projected Membemhip) Number of Student,,Aduad and Prj�,d,Over(Under)100%LOS �����m1�m1�m1��1\��1�®1��1��1�6�f1��1��1��1��1�fml�fml�FFa11�F1F111 ��1��1�®1��1�Ei±11��1�E�II�F�11��F131��1� 11��1��1� f1� f1�6fl11�QL1��1��1�dGfl1��1 �F5111��i1��1�EEf1�E�i1��1��1� 1��1� 11�m1�m1��1��1�GS1�Fm11�FF11��1��1� 11� i1 �I