The URL can be used to link to this page

Home My WebLink AboutAgenda - 04-15-2025; 6-a - Change in Student Projection Methodology to be Used in Future Annual SAPFOTAC Reports 1 ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: April 15, 2025 Action Agenda Item No. 6-a SUBJECT: Change in Student Projection Methodology to be Used in Future Annual SAPFOTAC Reports DEPARTMENT: County Manager ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: Attachment 1 . Carolina Demography Kirk Vaughn, (919) 245-2153 Presentation PURPOSE: To receive a presentation from staff from Carolina Demography and authorize staff to change the student projection methodology of future annual School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) reports to a methodology employed by Carolina Demography. BACKGROUND: Over the past two (2) years, the SAPFOTAC, a technical advisory committee representing the County, the Towns of Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and Orange County Schools, have discussed making improvements to the School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) enrollment projection, based on commonly identified limitations of the process. The County currently projects future enrollment through a series of mathematical formulas based primarily on historic enrollment. While this methodology has accurately measured growth in the past, it would not quickly reflect significant policy changes or development that is inconsistent with past growth trends. For example, the existing models would not pick up a very large development that generates a high quantity of students until those students start presenting in classrooms, and even then, a three-, five-, or ten-year average would only begin reflecting those increases over time. Similarly, a significant policy change like growth in educational options outside of a traditional public school setting may reduce projected student growth and space needs in a single year rather than over time. At the December 10, 2024 Business meeting, the Board of Commissioners authorized staff to provide notice to the parties of the SAPFO Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) that the student projection methodology will be changed to be one employed by the Operational Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) or Carolina Demography. In accordance with the SAPFO Memoranda of Understanding, a letter was sent to the SAPFO partners in January inviting comment on the proposed change. No comments were received. On March 16, 2025, the SAPFOTAC held its annual meeting, and received presentations from both consultants. The six (6) entities voted unanimously to recommend Carolina Demography to 2 provide future enrollment projections. The technical advisory committee appreciated the variety of variables that were used in Carolina Demography's previous enrollment projections, including population estimates, births, approved developments, and charter school enrollment. Carolina Demography provides enrollment projections for Wake County and Brunswick County. FINANCIAL IMPACT: There is no immediate financial impact associated with the presentation and decision item. Funds to contract with Carolina Demography would be included in the FY 2025- 26 annual operating budget. ALIGNMENT WITH STRATEGIC PLAN: This item supports: • GOAL 5: PUBLIC EDUCATION/LEARNING COMMUNITY OBJECTIVE 4. Improve learning environments by investing in facilities over a 10-year period that address repair, renovation, and educational adequacy needs. OBJECTIVE 5. Invest in and implement a plan that supports schools operational and facility funding needs. RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends that the Board receive a presentation from Carolina Demography and authorize staff to change the student projection methodology of future annual School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) reports. Student Enrollment Forecasting Process r C3 Orange County Board of Commissioners ►,,� Chapel Hill, NC Dr. Nathan Dollar, PhD Data for the People Executive Director 2UNC CARaLiNA C A R a L 1 N A carolinademography.cpc.unc.edu D E M G G R ==P H Y POPULATION CENTER About Carolina Demography Who we are Carolina Demography is the applied demography unit of the Carolina Population Center (CPC) at UNC-Chapel Hill. We are a non-partisan team of population scientists working for the people of North Carolina. Our Mission We help people understand a changing North Carolina to make informed decisions. CAROLINA carol inademography.cpc.unc.edu C A R a L 1 N A_- 21- UNCPOPULATION CENTER D E M G R _=P H Y About Carolina Demography : What We Do k • - - - - wIX Find and Collect Clean, Analyze, & Communicate data and Data Interpret Data engage stakeholders We work with you to determine We use rigorous methods to We strengthen the capacity the data you need, and where translate the data and provide of your organization to and how to access that data. meaningful context. communicate data-driven ideas. CAROLINA carol inademography.cpc.unc.edu C A R a L 1 N A__ 2- UNCPOPULATION CENTER D E M o G R _=P H Y 6 What is an enrollment forecast? What is it nof? What is it? • A scientific most likely" scenario based on all inputs. • Avery useful planning tool, if used correctly and questioned. What is it not? • A crystal ball that will tell us, with complete accuracy, what enrollment will be in 10 years. • A random and wild guess at what enrollment will be in 10 years. cARoLiNa C A R Q � I N A IfsUNCcarol inademography.cpc.unc.edu p E M O G R H Y .. POPULATION CENTER __ 7 What is the goal of the enrollment forecast process? To develop reasonable enrollment forecasts that take into account: a) Demographic processes (i.e. , births, migration) b) Historical enrollment patterns c) Potential changes in charter and private school expansions (i.e. , market share) d) Local Development e) COVID-19 effects cARoLiNa C A R Q � I N A IfsUNCcarol inademography.cpc.unc.edu p E M O G R H Y .. POPULATION CENTER __ 8 Enrollment Forecasts : A Collaborative Effort CAROLINA DEMOGRtPHY Orange Demographic county Analytics Advisors schools NO0.lN G0.0 LIMA o� a ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA CAROLINA carol CAROLINA IfsUNCD E M o G LP H Y .. RD�I•II,ATION CENTER What We Take Into Consideration 1 Key Considerations - Forecasts In other words, what data do we use? General : North Carolina or Orange 1 . Historical Enrollment Patterns County/CHCCS Specific: 2. School Capacity & Attendance Zones 1 . The impact of S406/H823 - The Opportunity Scholarship 3. Demographic Processes Program expansion a) Births 2. Charter school proliferation. b) Migration c) Age, sex, race, Hispanic Origin trends 4. Built Environment a) Building Permits b) Known development areas (especially residential) and timing 5. Economics 6. COVID-19 CAROLINA carol inademography.cpc.unc.edu C A R a L 1 N A_- 2-11"UNC POPULATION CENTER D E M G G R _=P H Y 11 Forecasts are adjusted annually to The Forecast Process Step 1. reflect changes in Compilation of enrollment, birth School Data Step 2. rates, school-age POPULATION CENTER Incorporate residents, and Receive Demographic & Step 3. enrollment data, Planning Data Create Forecasts market share. charter billing The forecast team from OCS & Combine school data, CHCCS historic membership develops new data, demographic projections data, and planning data Questions Work With Us • • • • - What questions do you have Li about your community? r - What data do you need to make better decisions? ❑ °. r 0 ° two 21- UNC CAROLINA POPULATION CENTER