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Home My WebLink AboutAgenda - 12-10-2024; 6-a - Authorize Notification Regarding Potential Change in Student Projection Methodology Used by the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee 1 ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: December 10, 2024 Action Agenda Item No. 6-a SUBJECT: Authorize Notification Regarding Potential Change in Student Projection Methodology Used by the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee DEPARTMENT: County Manager ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: 1) SAPFO Student Project Formulas Travis Myren, County Manager, 919- 2) OREd Student Projection 245-2308 Presentation 3) Wake County Student Projection Excerpt from Wake County Report PURPOSE: To authorize staff to provide notice to the parties of the Student Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Memorandum of Understanding (SAPFO MOU) that the student projection methodology will be changed to either the one employed by the Operational Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) or Carolina Demography and invite comment from the parties. The Board of Commissioners will make a final decision on which methodology is used moving forward in April 2025. BACKGROUND: Each year, a staff committee comprised of representatives from the County, the Towns of Chapel Hill and Carborro, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools, and Orange County Schools prepares and transmits a report on student growth projections. This committee is known as the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC). The projections are compared to school capacity in an effort to predict when new school facilities might be needed. If the projections indicate a need for more school capacity, the County may plan to add capacity through the County's ten year Capital Investment Plan. The MOU contains a provision that authorizes the Board of Commissioners to change student projection methodology. The MOU requires the County to notifiy the other parties of a change to the methodology no later than February 1. The original SAPFO projection methodology relies on capacity calculations that do not take into consideration the existence of Pre-Kindergarten classrooms and the lower capacities for some specialized classroom functions such as exceptional children classrooms. When Woolpert, Inc. completed Long Range (School) Facilities Optimization Plan, those deficiencies were corrected. On the student projection part of the analysis, the current SAPFO projections use a series of five different mathematical formulas that all rely on history to predict future growth. Attachment 1 describes each of those formulas. While this methodology has accurately measured growth in 2 the past, it would not quickly reflect significant policy changes or development that is inconsistent with past growth trends. For example, the existing models would not pick up a very large development that generates a high quantity of students until those students start presenting in classrooms, and even then, a three, five, or ten year average would only begin reflecting those increases over time. Similarly, a significant policy change like growth in educational options outside of a traditional public school setting may reduce projected student growth and space needs in a single year rather than over time. Over the past year, the School Capital Needs Workgroup and the SAPFOTAC discussed making improvements to the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) enrollment projection and capacity determination process. The Committee is recommending a change to the projection methodology consistent with the terms of the MOU. The County has already worked with the Operational Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) from NC State University and Woolpert, Inc. consultants respectively to review a different projection methodology and to update school capacity. The OREd projection model, described in Attachment 2, utilizes land-use and future residential development projections directly in its ten-year enrollment projections. It determines the student generation rates of specific neighborhoods and makes estimates of generation rates of future developments based on similar existing neighborhoods. This methodology increases the predictive nature of the projections as they are based on approved development and student generation rates rather than historic growth rates. Following the suggestion of Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools staff, the County has also conferred with Carolina Demography from UNC-Chapel Hill about its student projection methodology that was recently used in Wake County Schools. The methodology and assumptions are described in Attachment 3 which is an excerpt from the Wake County student projection analysis. The Carolina Demography methodology uses a variety of factors including birth rates, the number and type of building permits issued, migration, population structure and change, and losses to charter schools and private schools. Staff is recommending that the Board authorize staff to provide notice to the parties to the MOU that the existing student projection methodology will be replaced by either the OREd or Carolina Demography projection methodology and to invite comment from the parties. The Board of Commissioners would make a final decision on which methodology is used in April of 2025. FINANCIAL IMPACT: The County would be required to fund a contract with the third-party consultant. The cost of the OREd contract was $35,000 for both the land use study and student projections. The cost of a report from Carolina Demography would be approximately the same cost. ALIGNMENT WITH STRATEGIC PLAN: This item supports: • GOAL 5: PUBLIC EDUCATION/LEARNING COMMUNITY OBJECTIVE 4. Improve learning environments by investing in facilities over a 10-year period that address repair, renovation, and educational adequacy needs. OBJECTIVE 5. Invest in and implement a plan that supports schools operational and facility funding needs. 3 RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends that the Board authorize staff to provide notice to the parties of the Student Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Memorandum of Understanding (SAPFO MOU) that the student projection methodology will be changed to either the one employed by OREd or Carolina Demography and to invite comment from the parties. The Board of Commissioners will make a final decision on which methodology is used moving forward in April 2025. 30 STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION 1 CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS n O Tischler Linear(OCS& Mathematical formula;straight line projection �((c*t')*x)+b Historical growth is reflected in projected growth ti CHCCS) y=projected population;c=historical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years BYM+(BYI+5(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects t0-year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=yearstudent membership increment OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o u increase in BYI of 5 every other year reflects (OCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year; IDSL=/o of total increases in housing growth; reflects buildout membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year constraints member by school level SYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10•year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=yearstudent membership increment OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o c decrease in BY1 of 15 until school year 2010-2011 (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year; /DSL=/o of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year buildout constraints member by school level IZIZ Kn k n.,+(kn.,*0.01) Mathematical formula that computes the average nT1 advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(£ G„I g,j)13 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate forthe 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=3 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same "r CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n_,(a) percentage of students in each grade level kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year lz andfor historical growth rates membershi (other than kindergarten);9=previousgrade's membershiP:a=avera e ~ 1 advancement rate;b=projected membership C Kn=kn-,+(km,*0.01) Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(£ Gn!gn.1)15 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n,,(a) percentage of students in each grade level kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year y and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average advancement rate;b=projected membership b Kn=kn.1+(kn,, 0.01) A Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each a=(E G n gro, ! )110 Assumes a I%annual growth rate for the 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n_10 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed bldg n-,(a) percentage of students in each grade level kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year andlar historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average ► advancement rate;b=projected membership 5 Attachment 2 School Enrollment Projections OREd Land Use Study OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND EDUCATION LABORATORY ITRE INSTITUTE FOR TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND EDUCATION Institute for Transportation Research and Education CENTENNIAL CAMPUS @ NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY JANUARY 16, 2024 6 Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd ) County Commissioner Meeting: January 16th, 2024 Outline • About ITRE and OREd ■ Land Use Study: Process and Results ■ Out-of-Capacity Tables ■ Discussion / Questions & Answers 7 About ITRE and OREd a i011111, -f ITRE The Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRE) Institute for Transportation Research and Education conducts transportation research and provides professional NC STATE UNIVERSITY training, education, and technical services. 8 About ITRE and OREd OREd is an unbiased, third-party, evaluation research group that helps to depoliticize the school planning process. OREd guides districts through data-driven solutions and policies using stakeholder interviews.. GIS analysis, mathematical modeling, and applied decision science. [Mj] - www.itre.ncsu.edu/OREd LTJ ■ n 9 About ITRE and OREd : The Role of OREd Integrated Planning for Schools and Communities (IPSAC) • Reflect on Historic Enrollment Data (Enrollment Forecasting) • Account for Current and Future Growth (Land Use Studies) • Compare Projected Needs with School Capacities (Out-of-Capacity Table) 1 About ITRE and OREd : Client Map ( 1990-2023 ) Stakes Rpckingflam Warren �urrit Vance Granvll le � FYirsVtlE 6WiFord �7range Franklin ._ y� -a Alamance C>wrham CdiCCS Wash E+i�ombe _ h Wake �Q �Cl�atham W3}s,�n Pftt �� 3ohnsivn Beaufort Harnett Wayne r Lenolr Craven P]mlKa . lEn Carteret Onslow n PendeE N2W Flai}p - BELtn5wlCk 11 Land Use Study : Interview Roster— County Leadership and Planning Cy Stober Planning& Inspections Director Orange County Nish Trivedi Transportation Director Steve Brantley Economic Development Director Municipal Leadership City of Mebane Chris Rollins City Manager Ashley Ownbey Development Director Town of Chapel Hill Corey Liles Planning Manager Dwight Bassett Economic Development Director Town of Carrboro Marry Roupe Development Review Administrator Town of Hillsborough Shannan Campbell Planning and Economic Development Manager Community Stakeholders OWASA Vishnu Gangadharan Director of Engineering and Planning 12 Land use study: Enrollment Factors ■ Transportation Accessibility ■ 1-40 Widening Project— Improved access to Durham, RTP, and Triad ■ S. Churton Street Widening— Improved access to Chapel Hill and Hillsborough ■ Hillsborough Train Station — Establish passenger rail service ■ Chapel Hill Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)— Establish dedicated bus lanes ■ Industrial Development ■ Buckhorn Economic Development District ■ Demand for Life Sciences &Advanced Manufacturing: Thermo Fisher Scientific ■ Proximity to the Megasites: VinFast, Wolfspeed, Greensboro Randolph Toyota ■ Residential Growth ■ Widespread growth in multiple regions of the district ■ "Vertical" high-density infill growth in southern Orange ■ "Horizontal" growth into vacant sites in central and western Orange ■ Water & Sewer ■ Overall robust infrastructure, though wastewater capacity limitations in some areas 13 Land Use Study : Development Inventory Development Name Units Municipality Developmenthlame Units Municipality Glen Lennox 1000 Chapel Hill Bridgepoint 54 Chapel Hill ° Collins Ridge 950 Hillsborough Summit PlaceTownhomes 52 Chapel Hill CarrawayVillage 657 Chapel Hill Oak Grove Trails 51 Mebane Aura Chapel Hill 418 Chapel Hill Perry Place(CASA Affordable Housing) 48 Carrboro Oakwood 409 Mebane Jay St Housing 48 Chapel Hill Meadows 369 Mebane 11th Street Apartments 48 Mebane Persimmon at Cates Creek(Moren)Phase 1 346 Hillsborough Stanat's Place 47 Chapel Hill Lloyd Farm 308 Carrboro Snipes 38 Orange County Aura Blue Hill 301 Chapel Hill Stagecoach Corner 35 Mebane "`b'` wnktnnn Millennium Chapel Hill 274 Chapel Hill Kentfield 20 Carrbaro Ef-d U Place Multifamily 253 Chapel Hill Sanderway AIS 18 Carrboro Weaver's Grove 243 Chapel Hill P Murray Hill 15 Chapel Hill r Winmore VMU 242 Carrboro Trinity Court 14 Chapel Hill Park Apartments/Hartley 216 Chapel Hill Lodges at Chapel Hill 12 Orange County Tupelo North 207 Mebane Jones Avenue Subdivision 31 Hillsborough Tupelo Junction 177 Mebane PEACHApartments 10 Chapel Hill Link Apartments Rosemary 151 Chapel Hill post 10 Orange County Meadowstone 147 Mebane Fox Hills Farm 10 Orange County Bowman Place 128 Mebane Joyner 9 Orange County Homestead Road Tri-Point 119 Chapel Hill Jones 7 Orange County a•�9ewow Homestead Gardens 115 Chapel Hill Childress 6 Orange County p=•na>; 710 N Estes Townhomes 107 Chapel Hill Willie 5 Orange County Claremont South 96 Carrboro uamn Feather 5 Orange County Ballentine 96 Carrboro - Javier 2 Orange County Townes at Oakwood Square 88 Mebane Hampton 2 Orange County Legend East Village at Meadowlands 76 Hillsborough Degraffenreidt 2 Orange County Jade Creek 72 Carrboro Planned Residential Developments Columbia St Annex 60 Chapel Hill Amity-Rosemary St 58 Chapel Hill 14 Membership Forecast : Out-of-Capacity Tables Orange County Schools- SAPFO Capacities Capacities Enrollment I Forecasted Month-1 ADM 1.2023-24 enrollment data 202344 2023.24 2024-25 1 2025-26 1 2026-27 1 2027-28 1 2028-29 1 2029-30 2030-31 1 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 provided by OCS. Elementary Schools(I{-5) 2.SAPFO Capacities Central Elementary 428 291 285 285 290 293 305 316 334 _ 342 ji7 354 11 3.Pre-Knot included Efland Cheeks Elementary 455 526 534 528 549 563 564 571 56MV 558 4M 570 Grady Brown Elementary 490 406 402 414 418 419 419 417 416 412 414 414 Hillsborough Elementary 420 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 New Hope Elementary 526 527 514 510 522 528 528 544 549 551 558 Pathways Elementary 540 312 315 307 305 308 301 292 284 286 281 284 Capacity.legend River Park Elementary 502 Totals 3361 3055 j 3042 1 3039 1 3074 1 3108 1 3117 1 3157 1 3164 1 3173 3200 3211 [ 95% Middle Schools(6-8) 95% - 1000/0 A L Stanback Muddle 740 633 639 633 655 644 662 663 670 676 696 698 100% - 105% Gravelly Hill Middle 700 411 406 463 475 508 525 562 578 593 616 627 Orange Middle 726 535 530 547 553 541 544 540 542 536 534 538 > 105% Totals 2166 1579 1575 1643 1684 1694 1731 1765 1790 1806 1845 1863 High Schools(9-12) Cedar Ridge High 1500 1117 1138 1172 1143 1157 1174 1173 1220 1250 1266 1312 Orange High 1399 1222 1239 1180 1191 1253 1265 1295 1334 1365 1377 1425 Partnership Academy 40 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 Operations Research and Totals 2939 2382 2419 2394 2376 2452 2481 2510 2596 2657 2684 2779 Education Laboratory Institute for Transportation Research and Education System Total 8466 7016 7035 7076 7133 7253 7328 7432 7550 7636 7730 7854 worth Carolina State university Date:10/26/2023 15 Membership Forecast : Out-of-Capacity Tables Orange County Schools- Woolpert Capacities Capacities Enrotknem I Forecasted Month-1 ADM 2023-24 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 1.provided 4 eOCS. ent data provided by OCS. Elementary Schools(K-5) 2.Woolpert Capacities Central Elementary 408 291 285 285 290 293 305 316 334 342 347 3.Pre-K not included Efland Cheeks Elementary 500 534 528 549 563 564 571 561 558 569 Grady Brown Elementary 412 406 402 414 418 419 419 417 416 412 414 414 Hillsborough Elementary 556 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 New Hope Elementary 542 527 514 510 522 526 528 544 549 551 558 558 Pathways Elementary 479 312 315 307 305 308 301 292 284 286 281 284 Capacity.Legend River Park Elementary 556 556 554 558 552 560 563 579 595 Totals 3453 3055 3042 3039 3074 1 3108 3117 1 3157 3164 1 3173 1 3200 13211 [ 95% Middle Schools(6-8) 95% - 1000/0 A L Stanback Middle 877 633 639 633 655 644 662 663 670 676 696 698 100% - 105% Gravelly Hill Middle 695 411 406 463 475 508 525 562 578 593 616 627 Orange Middle 824 535 530 547 553 541 544 540 542 536 534 538 > 105% Ad Totals 2396 1579 1575 1643 1684 1694 1731 1765 1790 1806 1845 1863 High Schools(9-12) Cedar Ridge High 13281117 1136 1172 1143 1157 1174 1173 1220 1250 1265 1312 Orange High 1310 1222 1239 1160 1191 1253 12.65 1295 1334 1365 1377 1425 Partnership Academy 40 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 Operations Research and Totals 2678 2382 2419 2394 2376 2452 2481 2510 2596 2657 2684 2779 Education Laboratory Institute for Transportation System Total 8527 7016 7035 7076 7133 7253 7328 7432 7550 7636 7730 7854 Research and Education North Carolina State University Date:10/26/2023 16 Membership Forecast : Out-of-Capacity Tables CHCCS- SAPFC) Capacities Capacities Enrolinw nt Forecasted Month-1 ADM 2023-24 2023.24 2624-25 2023-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 Elementary Schools(K-5) 1.2023-24 enrollment data Northside Elementary 568 373 370 364 345 352 355 360 364 372 375 379 provided by CHCCS. Carrboro Elementary 518 488 489 484 489 493 492 507 513 523 529 534 2.SAPFO Capacities Seawell Elementary 450 430 434 442 435 433 450 470 3.Pre-K not included Ephesus Elementary 436 355 356 352 380 402 404 412 416 425 430 434 Estes Hills Elementary 516 339 334 327 334 342 346 347 350 358 361 365 FPG Elementary 522 509 493 492 484 491 489 491 497 507 512 517 Glenwood Elementary 412 4'11 412 421 428 423 414 428 McDougle Elementary 548 466 458 441 455 449 454 464 468 478 483 488 Scroggs Elementary 558 382 363 363 348 355 348 361 365 373 377 380 Capacity .Legend Morris.Grove Elementary 568 397 380 351 354 364 357 372 375 384 388 392 Rashkis Elementary 568 425 413 405 396 400 405 404 403 4'12 4'17 419 C 95% Totals 5664 4575 4502 4442 4448 4505 4514 4616 4665 4762 4815 4852 95% - 1000/0 Middle Schools(6-8) McDougle Middle 132 708 705 712 689 679 647 645 640 622 649 656 100% - 105% Culbreth Middle 774 674 667 661 652 628 630 623 625 599 632 592 Phillips Middle 706 583 563 604 604 575 570 590 625 619 630 635 1Q�v% Smith Middle 732 751 762 734 739 743 729 708 705 697 727 742 Totals 2944 2716 2697 2712 2684 2625 2576 2566 2597 2537 2639 2624 High Schools(9-12) Carrboro High 800 885 893 Chapel Hill High 1620 1642 '1625 1658 1667 1647 1677 1637 1635 1620 =1� 1 East Chapel Hill High 1515 1412 1390 1359 1323 '1322 1302 1281 1263 '1279 Operations Research and Phoenix Academy High 40 35 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 Education Laboratory Totals 3975 3974 3946 3955 3926 3930 3916 3856 3811 3818 3771 3806 Institute for Transportation Research and Education System Total 12583 11265 11145 11108 11058 11060 11006 11038 11073 11117 11225 11282 North Carolina State University Date:10/26/2023 17 Membership Forecast : Out-of-Capacity Tables C H CCS- Woolpert Capacities capacities Enrollment I Forecasted Month-1 ADM 2023-24 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 Elementary Schools[K 5) 1.2023-24 enrollment data Northside Elementary 523 373 370 364 345 352 355 360 364 372 375 379 provided by CHCCS. Carrboro Elementary 500 488 489 484 489 493 492 507 513 523 534 2.Woolpert Capacities Seawell Elementary 333 470 3.Pre-K not included Ephesus Elementary 493 355 356 =2 380 402 404 412 4'I3, 425 430 434 Estes Hills Elementary 500 339 334 327 334 342 346 347 350 358 361 365 FPG Elementary 542 509 493 492 484 491 489 4191 497 507 512 517 Glenwood Elementary 400 411 412 42'1 414 457 McDougle Elementary 537 460 458 441 455 449 454 464 468 478 483488 Scroggs Elementary 482 382 363 363 348 355 348 361 365 373 377 380 Capacity Legend Morris Grove Elementary 537 397 380 351 354 364 357 372 376 384 388 392 Reshkis Elementary 486 425 413 405 396 400 405 404 403 412 4'17 419 C 95% Totals 5333 4575 4502 4442 4448 4505 4514 4616 4665 4762 4815 4852 95%o - 1000/0 Middle Schools(6-8) McDougie Middle 772 708 705 712 689 679 647 645 640 622 649 656 100% - 105% Culbrelin Middle 775 6,74 667 661 652 628 630 623 625 599 632 592 Phillips Middle 734 511 563 604 604 575 570 590 525 619 630 6350 > 10slm Smilh Middle 712 751 762 734 739 743 729 708 706 697 727 742 Totals 2993 2716 2697 2712 2684 2625 2576 2566 2597 2537 2639 2624 High Schools(9-12) Carrboro High 851 893 900 899 923 899 875 8 .2 872 869 Chapel Hill High 1535 '1625 1658 1667 1647 '1677 r 1635 1620 1589 1607 East Chapel Hill High 1275 1390 1359 1323 1322 1302 1281 121- 1279 1271 1292 Operations Research and Phoenix Academy High 40 38 38 38 38 38 - - Education Laboratory Totals 3701 3974 3946 3955 3926 3930 3916 3856 3811 3818 3771 3806 Institute for Transportation Research and Education System Total 12027 11265 11145 11108 11058 11060 11006 11038 11073 11117 11225 11282 North Carolina State University Date:10/26/2023 18 Discussion / Questions & Answers 19 WAKE COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOL SYSTEM : 10 YEAR STUDENT MEMBERSHIP FORECAST 20 Table of contents Executive Summary 2 Statewide Trends 3 Long-Range Forecast: Assumptions&Threats to Model 4 Impacts of Market Share Changes on Enrollments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Market Share Trends,2013-14 to 2022-23 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Charter and Private School Growth and Implications for Future Market Share . . . . 7 Kindergarten Enrollments Remain Below Expectations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Grade-Level Enrollments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Attendance Violations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Impacts on Wake County Charter Enrollments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Impacts on Fertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Impacts of Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Impacts of Population Structure and Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 2022-23 Forecast Performance 16 2023-24 Ten-Year K-12 Forecast 17 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Projecting Fertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Accounting for Missing Kindergartners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Charter School Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Concerns/Unknowns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 1 21 Table 5. WCPSS Changes in Membership by Grade,2023-24 vs.2022-23 and Forecast Membership by Grade 2022-23(actual) 2023-24(forecast) 2023-24(actual) Net Gain(2023-24-2022-23) Percentage Change Variance(actual-forecast) K 10,963 11,728 11,053 90 0.8% -675 1 11,629 12,199 11,416 -213 -1.8% -783 2 11,264 11,776 12,008 744 6.6% 232 3 11,496 11,248 11,476 -20 -0.2% 228 4 11,360 11,543 11,792 432 3.8% 249 5 11,766 11,426 11,704 -62 -0.5% 278 6 11,776 11,624 11,707 -69 -0.6% 83 7 12,173 11,908 12,042 -131 -1.1% 134 8 12,617 12,276 12,499 -118 -0.9% 223 9 14,822 14,554 14,954 132 0.9% 400 10 13,835 13,588 13,576 -259 -1.9% -12 11 12,628 13,115 13,197 569 4.5% 82 12 12,083 12,066 12,571 488 4.0% 505 Total 158,412 159,051 159,995 1,583 1.0% 944 Source:Month 2 ADM.Principal's Monthly Report,NC DPI and WCPSS Technology Membership by Level 2022-23(actual) 2023-24(forecast) 2023-24(actual) Net Gain(2023-24-2022-23) Percentage Change Variance(actual-forecast) K-5 68,478 69,920 69,449 971 1.4% -471 6-8 36,566 35,808 36,248 -318 -0.9% 440 9-12 53,368 53,323 54,298 930 1.7% 975 Total 158,412 159,051 159,995 1,583 1.0%a 944 Source:Month 2 ADM.Principal's Monthly Report,NC DPI and WCPSS Technology 2023-24 Ten-Year K-12 Forecast The 2023-24 ten-year K-12 forecast is based on the Month 2 Average Daily Membership(ADM)as reported by Wake County Public Schools(WCPSS). Methodology Future enrollments in WCPSS were projected using the grade progression methodology described by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education(WICHE)8. More specifically,projections were calculated using a grade progression ratio(GPR),which uses data from kindergarten through twelfth grades to project enrollments in future years. A five-year smoothed average BBransberger,Peace and Demaree K.Michelau. 2016. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates. 9th ed.Boulder,CO:Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. 17 22 ratio was used to place greater weight on more recent years with changing demographics and was calculated as: Yp(t—z) � Ypt = wYp(t—i) + (1—w) Z=2 4 where Ypt is the grade progression ratio at a point p in year t,and w is the weight. This weight is 0.4 in the first year and 0.15 for each of the four prior years. Assumptions The ten-year forecast was made with the following assumptions: • Individuals who are currently enrolled in alternative schooling options (home school, charters, and privates)will stay in these options. • No new assumptions were made about increases in private school enrollment, beyond the current growth trends. • Births in Wake County will have small but steady increases,reflecting continued population growth. • Grade progression ratios(GPRs)ignore the impacts of COVID-19 in 2020 and are based on observed transitions between 2017-2019 and 2021-2023. • Two new charters will impact in 2024-25,and we continue to provide additional analysis of the impacts of potential charter openings. • While home sales and building permits are down again this year, we are not including any new as- sumptions about impacts on school enrollment based on these trends. Projecting Fertility While Wake County births decreased during 2020,they rebounded in 2021 to the highest level since 2016 and had a small decline in 2022 and 2023. We assumed births will continue to stabilize and then grow,reflecting overall strong population growth in Wake County. Births were projected based on a linear regression of the last 20 years of births in Wake County. Table 6. Wake County Resident Live Births 2023 estimated,2024-2028 projected 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 13,168 13,145 13,019 13,308 13,374 13,440 13,505 13,571 Accounting for Missing Kindergartners Month 2 kindergarten enrollment was nearly 750 students lower than expected based on the number of births in 2018 and historical kindergarten yields. These missing kindergartners could enroll directly in Grade 1 18 23 in 2024-25, or they could instead enroll in kindergarten. Based on the challenge in accurately forecasting kindergarten enrollments in 2024-25,and the continued challenges posed by COVID-19,we did not assume that these"missing"kindergartners would be enrolled in WCPSS in 2024-25. Charter School Impact The current model accounts for the continued growth of two charter schools,as well as the continued build out of three other charter schools,with a potential impact of 1,673 students from WCPSS when they are fully built out. The impact of currently open and fully filled charters is assumed to be captured in the existing data9. Table 7. Total Anticipated Charter Impact in Wake County 2024 through 2033 grade 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 K 106 116 127 134 137 137 137 137 137 137 1 110 120 132 138 141 141 141 141 141 141 2 50 120 132 138 140 140 140 140 140 140 3 0 50 132 138 140 140 140 140 140 140 4 0 0 50 138 140 140 140 140 140 140 5 0 0 0 50 140 140 140 140 140 140 6 0 0 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 50 7 100 100 100 100 100 150 150 150 150 150 8 0 100 100 100 100 100 150 150 150 150 9 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 10 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 11 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 12 155 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 Total 839 1,091 1,258 1,421 1,573 1,623 1,673 1,673 1,673 1,673 Results The forecast yields the following results for Month 2 ADM: • In 2024-25,a net gain of 450 students over the 2023-24 Month 2 ADM,an increase of 0.3%. • Small decrease in Month 2 ADM in 2025-26(below 0.1%) • Steady increases in Month 2 ADM through 2032-33 after that. • Overall gain of 12,362 students(7.7%)over the ten-year period. 9Most of the current charters are at capacity/buildout. Some of the existing charters are below their projected enrollments while others are above their approved/projected enrollments.Because these patterns are inconsistent,we assumed no changes going forward. 19 24 Table 8. Final WCPSS Enrollment Projections by Grade Month 2 ADM Grade 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Change,2023-2033 K 10,963 11,053 11,716 11,578 12,141 12,113 11,992 12,262 12,323 12,384 12,445 12,507 1,454 1 11,629 11,416 12,145 12,140 11,996 12,585 12,560 12,438 12,717 12,781 12,845 12,908 1,492 2 11,264 12,008 11,597 12,382 12,376 12,235 12,840 12,817 12,693 12,978 13,043 13,108 1,100 3 11,496 11,476 12,091 11,677 12,457 12,457 12,319 12,930 12,907 12,782 13,069 13,135 1,659 4 11,360 11,792 11,632 12,255 11,836 12,621 12,625 12,487 13,107 13,084 12,957 13,248 1,456 5 11,766 11,704 11,975 11,812 12,445 12,021 12,817 12,824 12,684 13,313 13,289 13,161 1,457 6 11,776 11,707 11,598 11,867 11,706 12,333 11,912 12,791 12,797 12,658 13,282 13,258 1,551 7 12,173 12,042 11,785 11,674 11,947 11,783 12,420 11,993 12,885 12,892 12,751 13,384 1,342 8 12,617 12,499 12,220 11,960 11,848 12,125 11,959 12,605 18,173 13,078 13,084 12,941 442 9 14,822 14,954 14,577 14,250 14,063 13,932 14,256 14,061 14,819 14,371 15,431 15,439 485 10 13,835 13,576 13,686 13,403 13,101 12,929 12,808 13,107 12,927 13,626 13,213 14,191 615 11 12,628 13,197 12,814 13,021 12,751 12,463 12,298 12,183 12,469 12,297 12,964 12,569 -628 12 12,083 12,571 12,609 12,363 12,563 12,302 12,024 11,864 11,753 12,029 11,863 12,508 -63 Total 158,412 159,995 160,445 160,382 161,230 161,899 162,830 164,362 166,254 168,273 170,236 172,357 #Change -654 1,583 450 -63 848 669 931 1,532 1,892 2,019 1,963 2,121 %Change -0.4% 1.0% 0.3% -0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% Starting in 2026, enrollments are forecast to rise steadily, largely due to the forecasted increase in birth cohorts, and because most of the charters projected to impact enrollment will largely be at full capacity by then. Figure 10. Comparison of Current and Past Forecast Series WCPSS Total Enrollment:Forecast 2023-24, 2022-23, 2021-22 180,000 170,000 0000 160,000 - 150,000 b�ti Off' ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti Forecast 2021 Forecast 2022 Forecast 2023 Source:Demographic Analytics Advisors and Carolina Demography The final set of projections has been included as an Excel file. 20 25 Concerns/Unknowns Lingering questions about future years include: • How will changes in decision making for charter schools,and new laws expanding vouchers for private schools impact enrollment? • How many missing students will return to school?io • How will inflation and decreases in home sales impact people's schooling decisions? • How much will school choices—e.g. home schooling—made during the pandemic persist into the future? And for how long? • How well will charter applications capture true build out? In any year, there are challenges in making projections, but the last few years have been particularly chal- lenging due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is very hard to predict the response coming out of the pandemic during a period of inflation at levels we have not seen for decades,and we may see continued flux well into the 2024-25 school year and beyond. 10"Missing"refers to the significantly reduced enrollments in WCPSS that are not fully accounted for by increases in home schools, charter schools,and private schools. In Wake County,as in statewide,the decrease in public school enrollments was not fully offset by increased enrollments in other school systems. While some of this was concentrated in the earliest grades(Kindergarten),these enrollment declines do not account for the entirety of the shift. 21