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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda 04-16-24; 8-d - Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance – Approval and Certification of 2024 Report 1 ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: April 16, 2024 Action Agenda Item No. 8-d SUBJECT: Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance —Approval and Certification of 2024 Report DEPARTMENT: Planning and Inspections ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: 1. 2024 SAPFOTAC Annual Report Perdita Holtz, Deputy Director, 919-245- 2. Copies of Student Projection Charts 2578 Cy Stober, Director, 919-245-2592 PURPOSE: To approve and certify the 2024 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) Report. BACKGROUND: At the December 4, 2023 Board of County Commissioners' Business meeting, the Board approved the November 15, 2023 actual membership and capacity numbers for both Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS) and Orange County Schools (OCS). Additional approvals/certifications, as outlined in the table below, are required by the SAPFO partners' MOUs (Memoranda of Understanding). At the February 20, 2024 BOCC meeting, the Board received for transmittal the draft 2024 SAPFOTAC Report. A letter and the Executive Summary of the Report were sent to all SAPFO partners advising them of the availability of the draft Report and inviting comments. Comments were requested for submission by March 29, 2024. To date, no comments have been received. OREd/Woolpert Alternative Projection and Capacity Assessments As was noted in the February 20, 2024 abstract, over the past year, the County and school districts have researched alternative student enrollment projection and capacity assessments through the Operational Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) and Woolpert Inc. consultants respectively. These alternative assessments were presented to the Board for review at the January 16, 2024 Board Business meeting. These assessments are not currently utilized through the SAPFO processes, but also recognize no projected new school system capacity needs in the next 10 years. The County will run these alternative assessments in parallel to the current SAPFO projections and capacity figures for the next year. The possibility of amending the SAPFO program to utilize the alternative student enrollment projection methodology and capacity assessments is expected to be reviewed this calendar year, with possible implementation before the next cycle of SAPFO analysis. The exact pages of the 2024 SAPFOTAC Report that the BOCC will be acknowledging and certifying are listed below. The context (i.e. definitions and standards) of the various SAPFO elements precedes the data to be certified and is within the full report. 2 Page in Element SAPFOTAC Certification to be made by BOCC Report Building Capacity with Capital Building capacity and current year Investment Plan (CIP) changes 12 through 17 membership for OCS and CHCCS were approved at the December 4, 2023 (Change from previous ear meeting. Student Membership Projection Methodology 20 Certification that the average of 5 models will be used, as noted in #3 on page 20 No change from previous ear Student Membership Projections ■ Orange County Elementary, Middle, and High Schools Student Projections (row that notes average only) (p. 35) 35 and 36 ■ Chapel Hill - Carrboro Elementary, Middle, and High Schools Student Projections (row that notes average (Change from previous ear only) . 36 Student Membership Growth Rate ■ Orange County Elementary, Middle, and 37High Schools ■ Chapel Hill - Carrboro Elementary, (Change from previous ear Middle, and High Schools Student/Housing Generation Rate ■ Orange County Elementary, Middle, and 42High Schools ■ Chapel Hill - Carrboro Elementary, No change from previous ear Middle, and High Schools FINANCIAL IMPACT: Current 10-year student growth projections show no future capacity needs for additional schools in the CHCCS District and OCS District. SOCIAL JUSTICE IMPACT: The following Orange County Social Justice Goal is applicable to this item: • GOAL: ENSURE ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY The creation and preservation of infrastructure, policies, programs and funding necessary for residents to provide shelter, food, clothing and medical care for themselves and their dependents. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT: There is no Orange County Environmental Responsibility Goal impact applicable to this item. RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends the Board approve the 2024 SAPFOTAC Annual Report and certify those aspects of the Report detailed in the summary table above. 3 Attachment 1 ORANGE COUNTY, NC SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE PREPARED BY A STAFF COMMITTEE: PLANNING DIRECTORS, SCHOOL REPRESENTATIVES, TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE (SAPFOTAC) (PURSUANT TO PROVISIONS OF A MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING ADOPTED IN 2002 & 2003) (ORDINANCES ADOPTED IN JULY 2003) Annual Report 2024 (BASED ON NOVEMBER 2023 DATA) CERTIFIED BY THE BOCC ON XXX, 2024 4 Table of Contents 2024 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary..........................................................................................................................i Introduction...................................................................................................................................................................viii Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners.............................................................................................ix Planning Directors/School Representatives Technical Advisory Committee..............................................................x I. Base Memorandum of Understanding........................................................................................................................1 A. Level of Service....................................................................................................................................................1 B. Building Capacity and Membership..................................................................................................................2 Attachment I.B.IOrange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2022-23)...................................................6 Attachment LB.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2022-23) ................................9 Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24)................................................ 12 Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24) .............................. 15 C. Membership Date...............................................................................................................................................18 II. Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System...........................................................19 A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP).........................................................................................................................19 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology...............................................................................................20 Attachment II.B.I—Student Membership Projection Descriptions...........................................................................................21 Attachment II.13.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2022-23).............................................22 Attachment II.13.3 —Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2023-24)............................................26 C. Student Membership Projections.....................................................................................................................30 Attachment ILC.1—Orange County Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2022-23).......................................33 Attachment II.C.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2022-23).............................34 Attachment II.C.3—Orange County Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24).......................................35 Attachment II.C.4—Chapel Hill-Carrboro Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2023-24).............................36 D. Student Membership Growth Rate..................................................................................................................37 Attachment II.D.1 —Orange County and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Student Growth Rates(Chart dates from 2023-2033 based on 11/15/22 membership numbers)(2022-23)................................................................................................................38 Attachment II.D.2—Orange County and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Student Growth Rates(Chart dates from 2024-2034 based on 11/15/23 membership numbers)(2023-24)................................................................................................................39 E. Student/Housing Generation Rate.................................................................................................................40 Attachment II.E.1 —Current Student Generation Rates(2015)................................................................................................42 III. Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process.........................................................43 A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (Process 1)......................................................................................................43 Attachment III.A.I —Process 1 Capital Improvement Plan......................................................................................................44 B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Update (Process 2)...........................................................................................................................................................45 Attachment III.B.1 —Process 2 Certificate of Adequate Public Schools(CAPS)Allocation...................................................47 5 2024 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service ....................................................................(No Change)........Pg. 1 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Elementary 105% 105% Middle 107% 107% High 110% 110% B. Building Capacity and Membership..................................(Change)..............Pg. 2 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Change from Change from Capacity Membership Prior Year Capacity Membership Prior Year Elementary 5664 4575 -82 3361 3055 -4 Middle 2944 2716 -82 2166 1579 -19 High 3975 3974 +24 2939 2382 -105 C. Membership Date—November 15.......................................(No Change)........Pg. 18 II. Annual Update to SAPFO System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) ...........................................(No Change)........Pg. 19 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology.................(No Change)........Pg. 20 The average of 3, 5,and 10 year history/cohort survival,linear and arithmetic projection models. C. Student Membership Projections.......................................(Change)..............Pg. 30 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 202-2024 School Year—Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2023-2024 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) Year Projection Made for 2023-2024 Membership Actual2023 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 Membership Elementary 4575 5498 H923 5367 H792 4708 H133 4582 L7 4581 H6 Middle 2716 2943 H227 2992 H276 2830 H114 2742 H26 2710 L6 High 3974 4037 H63 4085 H111 3915 L59 3908 L66 3914 H60 1 6 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2023-2024 School Year-Orange County Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2023-2024 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual. Year Projection Made for 2023-2024 Membership Actual 202 3Membershi 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 Elementar 3055 3321 H266 3320 H265 2994 L61 3000 L55 3063 H8 Middle 1579 1710 H131 1713 H134 1611 H32 1622 H43 1588 H9 Hi h 2382 2426 H44 2433 H51 2367 L15 2508 H126 2446 H64 D. Student Membership Growth Rate....................................(Change)..............Pg. 37 Projected Average Annual Growth Rate Over Next 10 Years Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Year Projection 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- Made: 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Elementary 0.65% -0.23% -0.88% -0.47% -1.14% 0.84% -0.02% -0.04% 0.26% -0.14% Middle -0.07% -1.50% -2.10% -1.77% -1.96% 0.37% -0.67% -0.72% -0.15% -0.44% High 0.03% -1.44% -2.15% -2.09% -1.83% 0.21% -0.98% -1.06% 0.98% -0.91% E. Student/Housing Generation Rate ..................................(No Change)........Pg. 40 SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS (Based on future year Student Membership Projections) CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 80.8%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase but remain negative over the next 10 years (average -1.14%%per year compared to an average of-1.89% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10- year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard(current LOS is 92.3%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease and remain negative over the next 10 years (average -1.96% compared to an average of-0.48% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year projection period. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 100.0%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease and be negative over the next 10 years (average -1.83% compared to +0.56% over the past 10 years). ii 7 C. Projections are not showing a need to expand Carrboro High School from the initial capacity of 800 students to the ultimate capacity of 1,200 students in the 10-year projection period. ORANGE COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105%LOS standard (current LOS is 90.9%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase but remain negative over the next 10 years (average -0.14% compared to -1.13% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10-year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard (current LOS is 72.9%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase but remain negative over the next 10 years (average -0.44% compared to -0.98% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year projection period. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed 110%LOS standard(current LOS is 81.0%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease and remain negative over the next 10 years (average -0.91% compared to -0.13% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for additional High School in the 10-year projection period. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION Pre-K Students In recent years, Pre-K enrollment has been a topic of discussion with both school districts. At this time, SAPFO has not been amended to include Pre-K in the membership and capacity numbers. However, Pre-K numbers and impacts continue to be monitored by the SAPFOTAC. Pre-K students for each district is as follows: via E Ii i School Year Number of Students Number of Students 2019-20 267 144 2020-21 208 (-59) 86 (-58) 2021-22 222 (+14) 125 (+39) 2022-23 295 (+73) 101 (-24) 2023-24 250 (-45) 91 -10 iii 8 Charter and Private Schools Currently, there are two Charter Schools located in the Town of Hillsborough. Charter student membership for these two schools is as follows: School Year Number of Students Number of Students 2017-18 542 326 2018-19 655 (+113) 355 (+29) 2019-20 715 (+60) 365 (+10) 2020-21 747 (+32) 2021-22 751 (+4) 365* 2022-23 777 (+26) 2023-24 805 (+28) 362 (-3) *The Expedition School reachedfull capacity of 365 students in 2019-20 Charter and private schools are not included as part of the SAPFO Annual Report and, as a result, their membership and capacity numbers are not included in future projections. SAPFO projections are used for projecting only public school capacity/construction needs. However, the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee does monitor charter and private schools and their effect on student enrollment in both school districts. If a charter or private school were to close and a spike were to be realized in school enrollment, the student projections would likely accelerate the need for additional capacity in future years, but likely still within an appropriate time for CIP planning. Charter Schools are also monitored by the Department of Public Instruction(DPI) which provides pupil information, based on data received from Charter Schools located in Orange County, to the County for funding purposes. The County budgeted for charter schools as follows: Chapel Hill-Carrboro Orange County City Schools ii Fiscal Year Number of Students Number of Students 2017-18 162 617 2018-19 155 (-7) 769 (+152) 2019-20 169 (+14) 843 (+74) 2020-21 166 (-3) 885 (+42) 2021-22 156 (-10) 919 (+34) 2022-23 205 (+49) 951 +32 2023-24 210 (+5) 999 (+48) Although charter and private schools numbers are not collected for SAPFO purposes, impacts due to enrollment at these schools are accounted for in SAPFO process with the annual reporting of student membership and growth rates contained in the 10-year student projections. Future Residential Development Proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. The Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) test is conducted during the approval process at a certain stage. Once students are enrolled in a school year, through annual reporting of student membership numbers, 10-year student projections can be updated to display iv 9 future capacity needs in time to efficiently plan for future school capacity/construction requests. The SAPFOTAC continue to monitor and evaluate the demand and growth of residential development throughout Orange County as well as its effect on student membership rates. Below is a list of larger residential projects and the potential number of students from these projects which may have an impact in the short term. Please note, the City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO agreement and therefore does not require that CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools)be issued prior to development approvals. As a result, the expected number of students is based on unit type and bedroom count estimates. Proposed d•ResiExpected LIm , . Remaining Elementary: 19 Jade Creek Carrboro 72 Middle: 13 High: 12 Elementary: 44 Weavers Grove Chapel Hill 235 Middle: 18 High: 20 Elementary: 19 Park Apartments Chapel Hill 283 Middle: 7 High: 9 Trinity Court Affordable Elementary: 7 Housing Chapel Hill 54 Middle: 3 High: 4 Elementary: 9 Columbia Street Annex Chapel Hill 59 Middle: 3 Hi h: 3 Elementary: 21 101-111 Erwin Road Chapel Hill 52 Middle: 10 High: 9 Elementary: 21 710 N Estes Townhomes Chapel Hill 107 Middle: 10 High: 9 Elementary: 12 Stanat's Place Chapel Hill 47 Middle: 4 High: 4 Elementary: 21 Aura Blue Hill Chapel Hill 301 Middle: 8 High: 11 Elementary: 18 Calyx (Glen Lennox) Chapel Hill 291 Middle: 6 High: 9 Elementary: 84 Collins Ridge Phase 1 Hillsborough 672 Middle: 45 High: 57 V 10 Proposed pectedNuImber Residential iJU iTotal Remaining Iki of Elementary: 22 Persimmon at Cates Creek Hillsborough 346 Middle: 11 High: 15 Elementary: 9 Stagecoach Corner Mebane 35 Middle: 5 High: 6 Elementary: 15 Bowman Place Mebane 67 Middle: 7 High: 8 Elementary: 3 The Townes of Oakwood Square Mebane 58 Middle: 2 High: 3 Elementary: 38 Tupelo Junction I Mebane 157 Middle: 19 High: 20 Elementary: 56 Tupelo Junction II Mebane 207 Middle: 27 High: 35 Elementary: 110 Oakwood Subdivision Mebane 409 Middle: 53 High: 70 Elementary: 10 11th Street Apartments Mebane 48 Middle: 4 High: 5 Elementary: 3 Oak Grove Trails Mebane 51 Middle: 2 High: 2 Elementary: 3 Meadows Mebane 17 Middle: 2 High: 2 Elementary: 8 Meadowstone Mebane 147 Middle: 5 High: 6 Orange County Elementary: 10 Edenview (OCS) 38 Middle: 5 High: 7 The SAPFOTAC also monitors projects that have not reached the stage of the development process when CAPS are issued. Therefore, student estimates are not yet available. The following is a list of projects for which rezoning has been approved: vi 11 Residential Project Jurisdiction Expected Number Newbury Carrboro 38-44 South Green Carrboro 63 Hillmont Chapel Hill 500 Gateway Chapel Hill 388 St Paul Village Chapel Hill 350 Chapel Hill Crossing Chapel Hill 290-344 101 E Rosemary St Chapel Hill 150 South Creek Chapel Hill 688-815 Jay St Affordable Housing Chapel Hill 48 Homestead Road Tri-Point Chapel Hill 119 School Renovation and Expansion The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) student projections illustrate when the adopted level of service capacities are forecasted to be met and/or exceeded in anticipation of Capital Improvement Plan(CIP)planning and the construction of a new school. Both school districts continue planning efforts to renovate and expand existing facilities to address school capacity needs in a more feasible way. Additional capacity resulting from school renovations and expansions will be added to the projection models in stages, once funding is approved, versus the addition of greater capacity when a new school is constructed and completed. The renovation and expansion to existing facilities may delay construction of new schools further into the future, depending on how and how much capacity is added to the system. Decisions on the timing of reconstruction(i.e. capacity additions) funding would be directly linked to the SAPFO model at the appropriate time. 2023 Woolpert Facilities Capital Needs Assessment and Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) Student Projections In 2023, Orange County contracted with Woolpert, Inc. to conduct a Facilities Capital Needs Assessment on all schools within both districts. Part of the assessment included calculating capacity at each school. At the Elementary level, two capacity calculations were completed: one that excluded space used by Pre-K programs and one that did not account for Pre-K usage. Woolpert, Inc. has presented its findings and discussions regarding the results are on-going. Also in 2023, each school district contracted with NC State's Operations Research and Education Laboratory(OREd) to complete a"Land Use Study" and student membership projections. OREd's projection model includes a forecasting component whereas the SAPFO model is mathematically based using historical data and accepted projection methodologies. Discussions regarding the results of the study are on-going. vii 12 Orange County, NC School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Introduction The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) and its Memorandum of Understanding are ordinances and agreements, respectively. Supporting documents are anticipated to be dynamic to incorporate the annual changing conditions of membership, capacity and student projections that may affect School Capital Investment Plan(CIP)timing. This formal annual report will be forthcoming to all of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners each year as new information is available. This updated information is used in the schools capital needs process of the Capital Investment Plan (Process 1) and within elements of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) spreadsheet system (Process 2). This report and any comments from the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners will be considered in the first half of each year by the Board of County Commissioners at a regular or special meeting. The various elements of the report are then"certified" and formally considered in the process of the upcoming Capital Investment Plan. The Certificate of Adequate Public Schools system is updated after November 15 when data is received from the school districts with actual membership and pre-certified capacity (i.e. CIP capacity or prior "joint action" capacity changes). The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance and Memorandum of Understanding have dynamic aspects. The derivation of the baseline and update to the variables will continue in the future as a variety of school related issues are fine-tuned by technical and policy groups. The primary facet of this report includes the creation of mathematical projections for student memberships by school levels (Elementary, Middle and High) and by School Districts (Chapel Hill/Carrboro and Orange County). This information is found in Section II, Subsections B, C, D, and E. In summary, this report serves as an update to the dynamic conditions of student membership and school capacity which affect future projected needs considered in Capital Investment Planning. Interested parties may make their comments known to the Board of County Commissioners prior to their review of the report and school CIP completion or ask questions of the SAPFOTAC members. viii 13 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners Annual Report as Outlined in Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Memorandum of Understanding (SAPFO MOU) Section ld Respectfully Submitted to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District SAPFO SAPFO Board of County Commissioners Board of County Commissioners Carrboro Town Council Hillsborough Board of Commissioners Chapel Hill Town Council Chapel Hill-Carrboro School Board Orange County School Board ix 14 Planning Directors/School Representatives Technical Advisory Committee (aka SAPFOTAC) Town of Carrboro Trish McGuire, Planning Director 301 West Main Street Carrboro,NC 27510 Town of Chapel Hill Britany Waddell, Planning Director 405 Martin Luther King, Jr. Blvd. Chapel Hill,North Carolina 27514 Town of Hillsborough Shannan Campbell, Planning and Economic Development Manager P.O. Box 429 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Orange County Cy Stober, Planning Director Perdita Holtz, Deputy Planning Director, Long-Range Planning Kirk Vaughn, Budget Director 131 W. Margaret Lane P.O. Box 8181 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Orange County School District Jim Merrill, Interim Superintendent 200 E. King Street Hillsborough,NC 27278 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Nyah Hamlett, Superintendent 750 Merritt Mill Road Chapel Hill,NC 2751 x 15 Section I I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—Change can only be effectuated by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) by all SAPFO partners. 2. Definition —Level of Service (LOS) means the amount (level) of students that can be accommodated (serviced) at a certain school system grade group [i.e., Elementary level (K-5), Middle Level (6-8), High School Level (9-12)]. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Elementary Middle High School Elementary Middle High School 105% 107% 110% 105% 107% 110% 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District These standards are acceptable at this time. These standards are acceptable at this time. 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District No change from above standard. No change from above standard. 1 16 Section I B. Building Capacity and Membership 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) will receive requested changes that are CIP related and adopted in the prior year. CIP capacity changes will be updated along with actual membership received in November of each year. Other changes will be sent to a `Joint Action Committee' of the BOCC and Board of Education, as noted in the MOU, who will make recommendations and forward changes (on the specific forms with justification) to the full Board of County Commissioners for review and action. These non- CIP changes would be updated in the upcoming November CAPS system recalibration and included in the SAPFOTAC report. 2. Definition —For purposes of this Memorandum, "building capacity" will be determined by reference to State guidelines and the School District guidelines (consistent with CIP School Construction Guidelines/policies developed by the School District and the Board of County Commissioners) and will be determined by a joint action of the School Board and the Orange County Board of Commissioners. As used herein the term "building capacity" refers to permanent buildings. Mobile classrooms and other temporary student accommodating classroom spaces are not permanent buildings and may not be counted in determining the school districts building capacity. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The original certified capacity for each of the The original certified capacity for each of the schools was certified by the respective schools was certified by the respective superintendent and incorporated in the superintendent and incorporated in the initialization of the CAPS system(Chapel Hill- initialization of the CAPS system (Orange County Carrboro School District April 29, 2002 - Base) School District April 30, 2002 -Base) Capacity changes were made each year as Capacity changes were made each year as follows: follows: 2003: Increase of 619 at Rashkis Elementary. 2003: No net increase in capacity at Elementary 2004: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or level. No changes at Middle School level. High School levels. Increase of 1,000 at Cedar Ridge High School. 2 17 Section I 2005: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2004: No net increase in capacity at Elementary High School levels. level. No changes at Middle or High School 2006: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or levels. High School levels. 2005: An increase incapacity of 100 at 2007: An increase of 800 at the High School Hillsborough Elementary with the completion of level with the opening of Carrboro High School. renovations. 2008: An increase of 323 at the Elementary 2006: An increase in capacity of 700 at the School level due to the opening of Morris Grove Middle School level with the completion of Elementary School and the implementation of Gravelly Hill Middle School and an increase of 15 the 1:21 class size ratio in grades K-3 at the High School level with the temporary 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or location of Partnership Academy Alternative High School levels. School. An increase of 2 at the Elementary level 2010: An increase in capacity of 40 students at due to a change in the capacity calculation for each the High School level with Phoenix Academy grade at each school. High School becoming official high school 2007: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High within the district School levels. 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2008: A decrease of 228 at the Elementary School High School levels. level due to the implementation of the 1:21 class 2012: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or size ratio in grades K-3 and an increase of 25 at High School levels. the High School level with the completion of the 2013: An increase in capacity of 585 students new Partnership Academy Alternative School. due to the opening of Northside Elementary 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School. School levels. 2014: An increase in capacity of 104 students 2010: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High due to the opening of the Culbreth Middle School levels. School addition. 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2015: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or School levels. High School levels. 2012: No changes at Elementary or Middle School 2016: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or levels. A decrease of 119 at High School level as High School levels. a result of a N.C. Department of Public Instruction (DPI) study. 3 18 Section I 2017: A decrease in capacity of 165 students due 2013: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High to the implementation of the 1:20 class size ratio School levels. in grades K-3. 2014: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2018: No changes at Elementary, Middle or School levels. High School levels. 2015: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2019: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or School levels. High School levels. 2016: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2020: Increase of 100 seats at the High School School levels. level due to renovations at Chapel Hill High 2017: A decrease in capacity of 333 students due School. No changes at Elementary or Middle to the implementation of the 1:20 class size ratio in School levels. grades K-3. 2021: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2018: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High High School levels. School levels. 2022: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2019: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High High School levels. School levels. 2023: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2020: No changes at the Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. High School levels. 2021: Increase of 500 seats at the High School level due to the Cedar Ridge High School addition. No changes at Elementary or Middle School levels. 2022: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 2023: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a system to calculate capacity. Any changes year system to calculate capacity. Any changes year to to year will be monitored, reviewed, and year will be monitored, reviewed, and recorded by 4 19 Section I recorded by the SAPFOTAC on approved forms the SAPFOTAC on approved forms distributed to distributed to SAPFO partners and certified upon SA-PFO partners and certified upon approval by approval by the Board of County Commissioners the Board of County Commissioners each year. each year. The requested 2023-2024 capacity is The requested 2023-2024 capacity is noted on noted on Attachment I.B.4 Attachment I.B.3 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Accept school capacities at all levels, as reported Accept school capacities at all levels, as reported by CHCCS and shown in Attachment I.B.4. by OCS and shown in Attachment I.B.3. 5 20 Section I Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2022-23) (Page 1 of 3) Change Requwrit Form t -1- _ ['F'auk ta9,N1 564 %5 S02 ini 'IW2 I 111.8% and 52.02 455 4" 428 428 4.8 2% 89.2% .L:Ld Chnii 64,J 1 r, 497 497 455 455 445 122 114.7°! ly Ek W1 7 ii 016 544 544 490 494 4" 4 t 4 194.7% ebogv li 51.1q)6 471 471 424 420 42$ 42N' 101.W/6 ­ HUP IEN),i_i im W qd 526 Std 4241 100.4% I-w1w r 9!%292. 376 $76 440 Sett w }fi4 57.21% 117ra144dN 3,6941 3,644 3,361 Vol idol ' 3 459 9 110% Special N tw(*N 1 For dwMowc-mbar 44,: bwaym1!dbwd, tudtherupvnntvwu mvcimtdW 1gwwpttc(dw Schuh Fwz..inm To k Fmce inview mW'2003 E'9 unictt amd School R omentw4ve Tmhmoil rtdviimyt t.a Wn ilapMt 7tirw mp"Mo wilt tm4a +np m►til eb�lt mi by{1 the 5414x71 L:EF'er{ ] wa mid v�nxxi epi Ilius&u,4 tbrt it QW Divi by be l juvttw4cation: capacity and PAOnibrars.111p Ca Mfg catleo! Nov 21,2022 ' 'irita.iupccd f 6 21 Section I Attachment LB.1 Orange County School Capacity (Elementary, Middle, &High) (2022-23) (Page 2 of 3) Schools Ad-equate N 7 OCapacity, Y Fand RequestChange School pl¢i.rlic Ora".e r,0LJ1jjy$chOOIS SAPPO CAM Year;November 15. :102'x`-November K 2023 Capacity and Mernbarshlp SLibn,,Inal bate: November 15 ,2022 a.L ..1tainbade MOW) 740 740 714 74740 ra,1 87.0^;� Orznge Middle I D1.6I4 726 726 726 72.6 126 52-1. 72.7-?�) Cravrlly hill; 123mfjo "OD X10 704 7100 1411 i 430 e1.4% Total 366,fi211 211W101 X1661 2.1661166 1 S!1 I 73,8,x': Sp acial Ntste(a): L FOr the h avemhar 15,2002 base yew the board accepted the eupmauttmdenl-eemfl ed mpmtiee xa Irak of the S choor Fa+al trop T wk Fowe Pniew mid 2403 Flannery and School RgrewdatiwTedvdc*1 Advriaory Cwnmiltee Repan. These w,pacibew vain remain eff vo nnfi i Omnged by(1)the 5ehoc4 C71P or('�)on amended vr*on of dw farm tbid:ie cerged h4 the BOCC. Justification: - Capacity and MemberaMp hlricabon: A f4 4f&- .q Nov 23,2-027- Superiryfen&nt Date Ch ;' hate 7 22 Section I Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary, Middle, &High) (2022-23) (Page 3 of 3) Schools4R w4 Change Satical DIs1rIal 4,` an a County Schools SAPFO CAPS Year,Navomtor 15 2022-Niav+ernber 14 2023 Ca2aclty wind Wrnber-aMp Submittal 0ate No e+mbei 1.5 ?027 1wW2011) 1019,10210 1112(0011 1021-2022 2022-2023 INreckkifivar CHILr Ridge 11h.%W 1,0CKr 1,0011 til 0o 1,5047 11111 74 1'. chwige 2134}41Q M" 1,349, 1,399 1'Jqq 1.3.0.j 1,1.12 F�hlfri ��ltarr r�, olti 404 .44) 85 0''S. Turd 4 r7 rMl° 1439 3,4J91 2 42F JAPI 2,9341 1 2.4$7, $441 Special f4 a t4M°[rrP 1, Far thw F1.w43mbw 13,20Mbneyvu da baud 4ilu1rpled rdw supoi nru4idonr i:a4 h cwi;mpswit cp ea pon of 6v Sdw.1 FaiilitiarTeak Foma4rn+iw■Yd 2DO3 14cum wdSdwd Ropwx"vwTm9&rIiW Advisory Conar0two Raporr TI_taea eulaweitux will ��eiwr�cl'1'�tti4rrtr�Fii Thai,�d�Y�k��e$ahrral{�'ore►mard�+nadana#`Liue Cnrr�41s„4 r.LfisG�i�d by4hu 1jd91`d'. Jual1fj94#I*+r: 2021-22 srddithUh 16 Cadasr 14 dU s add ad 80,0011 square foot bnd 600 sorts. Capacity snd Membership Cw#ificmVen. .l a1Nov 23,202.2 } 8 OUpor1rocridc+►i1 0X0 3 ' x'{:"Pq a g 23 Section 1 Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2022-23) (Page 1 of 3) 5-ck"ls Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity. Mernberthip and Change Raqviviol Form k&4"0 CAIP$Yom Ii hewbw IS,A1,f•liifnvaow 1,; MW fsh swbfrrwm two ?14 ,,bM 1's, :077 0 1�111Y -- �1■ fly 4��1 444 434 1.14 434 4M b1.4% 3H11IN 31�' 5116 MA 1!i M 1A# 8413% Usharf, s�lw sal mu "i on 91.E 1If_3% I ikn,vW qpk? 4 411 413 411 R1 411 1" 1114,4% NkrAftitl+ wap" 5" w 5411 f111 940 411 46AK %k""lihmIF -90,!21 w !Ili %* !44 417 7&2% 1404U& 90ft w $a !ILII'' !411 "M ;17a. 114.74. 1RAl,1:Yo 4141,7;* 11 1 W w Ste' 411 14.1% ti,ems` NOW ! In %a ! f!# Y" 1<7 194 %,.vwtl I IL416 40 R14i' i11! 4"1 TN,#1 N.,.1iraa "1 T — 522% Spittl#1i (�gti+�'L�t 1 F 1w YMf?ti.+to°Pi+lk4 1 .$1/Y:l,.�. ,��alarm 1Y.,wd at."��Y1sc w1t,•einM�el��".xr.la-�§,tya„�r,�t�I+anY.Y!fr�.�.I F a.data. mad SARA 16rf-1—cte-kak-Yt1Agh"w?latowwwK114posl O �,sr11 111 NOW944MVWw(hfMKIN1Wr#9M*Wrel1h+1-41Yfa"fmLNFWN1IW�, *At MIKV �1sIM1�#Iletift Cop , 9 24 Section I Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2022-23) (Page 2 of 3) $4 ArIE-quale Public Facilities Ordinance Requesi Form st leood Div itic4 SAPFO CAP 5 Yelp.,i t W 3 14,M3 Ill.#r* 77177r 774 771 �1al�rmG�lc 1.14x11 7t2 7,511 M T31 T12 74+ 143% f [@*,A"191 ?bl M 7% T" 706 Ila 0% she" lu 731 731 M T31 7" 103'X. law #%17; 1�M i.7f11 @/i ft i�+st►.JI wtita,�rw l lar�F;an,,-ralxer 1 t„�VrMw kv�ti:3,lett 1wuo.1.4..+�+�.1�•�.�ruu� Ji�dClYc+a,. 1'.a„evs�a���hd:''�11A.�rw'w+,r.�!Gairrr+l�+7rr�s.rt++���Iw�Mrk�l�'4rk7�.�1,��"urtllx.p�'�IIiL T�'f +lrill�,"���I' M�'I�f:'11M4R'a•! t~,11 w�'wa hral l31'.+r 1'W F a�.�"wk�l w�+w�+Nl lfn.f.�.srti tl.�ir a aemltllc�t l�tl*e lot li�' Jus tIllcallenc 10 25 Section I Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2022-23) (Page 3 of 3) Sch9gle Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membar-ship ana Chnnq* Request F*wm Schaal DIMrlel: Coapol HIMCnirbom Ctiy Srh ah. SAAPPO CAPS_ Year Niowunki9tx1 15.200•NbLip 111.''Ij,?j I'm,,,9flly arrrl M 43 mbilitshIp Slbmlltol Dais Novnwbw 1- 211:? IL �LmTrT=�in Lo JT a 09 L'nRhitnr l�N.u,t skills Nlil] Iltul b99 111111 :tA 1101Y}L ['11u1w1'kllll I,4.t21l 11520 1,610 1,924 1167+] I,dl9r1 99% Fail C'hup t III II ?K.Jjthil IS I S 1.Kr 1.1`111 1.6111 I,!Il$ 1r1#6 95% 1'1u1IrW%Akad 5,;117 to 41, All ip 4117 34 95% 7iirtr�l ii�,21r9 y, �R.`7$' 1,N�1 }4'1+� 1 4�+1 3'f�±4 �oSll p�,4tiG i4p9}elnl 1�IClt9a{ail I 19�t t�lA n4�9,4+19111'rI ..14112I1.1'v$+dt 1lxl 119416I31.9v6JU19911199'.9Iipel 91914rldv 111'%C 111 HvJ 9:ill- iltl'9 Ill 11611101 OW SL 1,1111111.=.11111.. I . I 11.111 .,nti�,11911'twrol'I.�ulklr9nu9l'1�19111w1FlK.Cr9rw'nita114c°liechwl��u11191+tw+rk•l'r�19191NwkMlilvlr9111 'I'kreSeG�I,uINe�•nlllr¢�nw911rsIli°wy1111e1 11'.'l 421 l[9+1rPt9111SV1 VVI%1911 r9l blla h11111 AMI 9 4o91d1c9119y lite 11twi, Ju di If19r a I sons Cmpnalie gnd N 9rljnb erilAlcatTIC 1 ti1rI11r n�il+rrrrpntri - Dolt- l't;t'IIv r Clr1a 11 26 Section II Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2023-24) (Page 1 of 3) Change Request Form 10 mm= b .1 i'UM1111 N , 455 420 439 40 4221 171 NMud Chcam C,4,.1Lra 497 4 n0 455 SASS 455 524 11813% C1rndy,11rnavi 7.I,01G. 144 4911 499 4Rll 490 .11N 52.1!:1. IIIlNbu uEAi 5L,ID@ 471 42D Q* 1211 474 4," 1n-1.oY+ NvNv1..hipe IOLE,I" 586 412f, 334 AX $26 Sad' 1002% f nrhvacyN L¢K,2112 $76' 340 5411 SO 540 317 57.5'/: River l+lvk 74,612 355 3D3 102 SIR i42 Sul 5'10.5 . 'E'uEnl L098E611 369)4 361 dJl 3 fii 33ri] ;4#1,'K �0-��+ Special Note{a}E 1_For the Nnvcmbw L5,2OD2 hwuycnr 010 bawd accciftJ Elko-kvprtPinLvwJcnL-Coll IIL:d ctilWIILC'5 n pwl Cil 11is C%ucilirL+s'Ftivl�frevmo rrvvisws aoad 2dt)3 Plurinurs and 3e9wuL R.eyrua�,•niu%i+�wTcll�ui�al liclvCauiy L�aumii[L!v f�.iporl l?tt�hcau.wx;.11lcs 4x111 inn Wa cMeAvo oaWLl clmnt,A by(E)the Sclwol ClP ar(l)raiw nirxiKW veralan 4or Llda(brim Aw is milllcd by Ilw ROM, Jal ytlfle ntii n. plLtl'and h-rGorYrhEp�olgitiClstloftE s � ID`S L�+dcnE ale '�lielr RaiE: 12 27 Section II Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2023-24) (Page 2 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance JSAPFdE)) Capacity, Melubersillp and Change Request Forku S�honIIL9b5RrIrE' Orin. �nLlr61' yellgpls, _ 5�Ir+F1 CAQ31aar:NdVu 11113er 16 U23 Nimillbnr 14.2024 �a a(il �r1rJ 14letglnsruhl �ubmllial Laat : Noylan1beT 15 2023 &Junft J11 .111 A.1„4111011/ 1 111.,su111F' 7.111, 7111 711.11 71111. 7.111 4133 115,6 'i 7y lllljy.ldltldlr 141 t,71 72{, 7�{� 71.6 72...1' 721i 535 73-7% r kry 1[y I I.I I I F .N!it 7161 711(1 71311 7110 7H all 56.73% radw l ' .1fvri,fal 2.161 777 7,1771 Ito,( 3 1&C. 7.574, 729. Spaeial Noto(a): I.Var Ilse Nl1Yl'111i1L'619,20112 kim;L]lent'111E buirdl AL'L'LIlLed[lie l L7ix HiICL'11l1 nil eei Ii Hed LmpiwifiL'4 IIA 1111F1 Il r4he NiGllrmA 11�1l111ea'I'ne1:Force rewleaw luld 2km I'19a111Srg said 86�1 Rap komwIw-I'f-cNWc*l Adybxwy(aMIMI194 RvImml '11xIV+;nr+rs+'111cs'M11 I-onnial olTl' YI1+c palati V I+mgrcd by(I)tho%'AuYJ{{'1 P kir(3)AA n1nowictl w�rmi4in offills rami rlmd i5 c471 i Bold by 11W W- X' . ,Iraatldlwttls�a'p. -- — a.Ci[ -rn��erllllcatlon:Su (menden( holt f Dale 13 28 Section II Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2023-24) (Page 3 of 3) j;4mJ Suhools Adequate Public Facilities Ordiriance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Scilool District; Orange CouRly Sc4outs SAPFD GAPS Year.Novco"r 115,2023-November 14.2a,2-1 lClipacity and Marn4aroN 30lamIttal Data; November 1S ZY23 Calor 111111". 2 16.'1IlIF 1,t)IPI► 1.11410 '1..5eju 154111 7.111(1 1.117 74.r f 011MW M.-4119 1.30.) 1'."A) IJ91: 1.1911 1.794 1,222 87.31.4,'Aflinnoillp 610HI AR ,117 .411 all Iri I;i 107.6% U t'Lifni 4271wrv1 39 a.-Wfl 2..9.3-91 1934 X939 2AM2 81-13% Spealgt Notois)t 1,I""141e d+11.weiril.wr 1:6,24112 IM§C Y041 t61 lulunJ u Cj%kd l714 ac1peri13141L1uu I• rl ified cupucir iL%um P1111 ol'Ll10 SLJIuDl FmdIillm;To 1k Voil L;`.icyl y micl 203 PIp11=4#IINI.rchuto 1N;rxvmuW1MIv Tcthnleal Adviniry CrenellllLL43 RLporl- Them LrtpnrJI iU Will #41hu'1r u11fLLi evu vn[il d1MLSCd by(l)17L3&+MW CP ur(2)ljn 1u11endcrtvcrsioo odlldsa form IIW In4wall7ed rry Ilse 11{.EN''- .FIiatlflcetiant Calpr+ct#y adlil birshl erdlicatlon- f svp rr ndent dad ce Ch.. � / p 14 29 Section II Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary, Middle, & High) (2023-24) (Page 1 of 3) ft-y- Az -01'6+ g ! 1 ,1+q Capacity, Change Request Foirm Sclla4l Eii51rlc1: r.t=.t;ri:l:1111-i7arrhlxra Gt1 9o�ror 3Ar'FD LAP'5 Year Fl-t,n=mhar 162022-Nnwombear14 2024 C aE aclland Memhsrsldj SubmiRtal da:La: :Nov rnber 15 2025 Canbu 60AS2 - 516 . ... 5171 ;IN 518 5113 471* 9d-_2'16 6.4ka"Is 66,95Z 436 dM 4111:1 aae •IYti 35:5 84,416 :rs[csIlill� 5d-,244 516 516 511+ itt� 514 354 65-7% F.RGmham uAln 527 527 +LZ 52Z SZ1 504' 97.516 Glenwood dlt.?dA 411 417 4L7 ilk 432 411 99-By6 h4ss] ompk +paAlDU 341E 342 518 5431 546 Abd B5-ole MorrIsgimvs. VI1,221 Milt Sidi 569 566 E44 399 11119.9% mslhifle 1g,5oll SAR .90 333 65.7'4 RiAk6 05„7119 56R 'rib145611 SiX qbR 425 74,8% Scrag�gs- 51},906 55K 51511 15511 KSX s p_ d. 451Y 450 4511 4Sir 43 $1 -915_ 7•irl W631 5 5b64 $664 5 64 6 f1t}. SpO IM NOWS)3 1.For t1w W4'gm heT 0,2002 bits yeitr 111E rl-iwd a czpt[Y1 c4pr itics a1 par1 mrlbc&fbl l FS611.1imToM C omt re4iew arkl 2MI pbfflnrizand Sehnnl RepresrnlalimTechnical 31d4+1ikihy[:7p1111i1we keparL Tibma enllablicq wiil nsaain effective UNIR rhnancd by(1)11W'a.tohoo CIF or(2)ars gwKIYled wi ims rsflhis form&16 0:0ifVill 11Y 11,C 11{;7t.:i:. ,lrl�tAR�sOfotas GAPAI:6I #fFdt herahipCmrtiflcrstIow -alp'rrinl lideliL 15 30 Section II Attachment i.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity (Elementary,Middle, &High) (2023-24) (Page 2 of 3) 13chael bilR�lc1: ell tlilll-�®rrhro��+[:�I :�r.F�e.i�l4 SAPFO CARS VOar.Nnanrrber 1 2023'RJowmrriber 14 2024 Cis �c91.e ritl P4lernlSesaRrl 9u4451YRtC6YP Clat$: NbvsmbleF 16 2+029 1'„IbIUII6 122,467 741 774 774 774 774 67a 871% h DIVIOU 13164221 7,12 73Z 712 7}7. 712. 708 97% 19cillih! 109;1419; Aid 7419 7ID6 70 7w, 5p3 93% Smith 128,764 732 731 713 7117 7.12 751 103% 'Polo! d9iS i5 79.141 3''P4-11 2"4dw 3!1I ap.cr.nl Nr9tol.a= I Fm lllerhiavelmlter 1%213132 ham+year rite Hoard mvc*"ill`e swpcsimlemlenu-rertifiW upuviiiss vn PmIr tlfll`c SclkwM h'a iii i i .'I'n.k h1n=.r re+'It+t e41171HF1 3'IauneFt and ScArwrt Ricl3nsehtaiit�'I'schnical hdvisnry i"nrnmlllr9u Rei x11 T1A clg nao llal xr411 mrirsin rfCae:le��e t�rlil chan�nl 6y(l}lh+C SCRrrt81 C1P 4F��a7M artuenda4 vtFalan of llris rrxn�Ihnl.is crrtifac�b'l the 1#6CC. JustRRl�ntlan8 Capacity nEkzL Meniber5hlp CUl"11Mca#0111: rr +ee-i�l= tsr.:=rl Galt DLI!e 16 31 Section II Attachment LB.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2023-24) (Page 3 of 3) �� -blabL>41) 00116- Scheals,-Adequate Public Facilities Or-dirlance 4sApm Capacity, r par' c�wairtrnr - avam ur 14,2024 pplle yan am erxill] rr - a a-&' .vD r 5,. U110-Nilli- 1OZ11,1031 NN-21111- 1071-101'1 Cnntrasa I4KO23 HOD IND NO 900. U'dIl Hai 1117. CbBPAILill 211,111 11510 Iu. o i,ii20 1.62-0 i.b20 1,4.12 101% Ram Chappl.HiR 2SRA 9 11515 1.15 151,413 1,51.41 1,315 1,412, UZI 1'harnix AcarL 4,107 40 40 Ora 411 40 15 6810 ■IaL 6S I'L 37751 3 97d 3 976 31173 -- - 9 al 1004'°}a Special l'/o'1e(v)7 l.. Rw r11e Mavemhcr 13,201322 bxeyr.arlErc r w�d mKvac'�c4pkx118i�anl„aeriH1rcnlenl eertifai5 rnparilic%as purl ortlir S�•Ik-M FKII:i4ca ad Form revlaw mid 2(103 Flannws DIb L-5L1�I R21 M1*Iulil++4 TOA 1111 Ad iiW Coimrsilbm Reploil. Fhv%l'ui mclrIC�i%wi II rcimaiii efk'C11veWl11c%vN%rl lsj{I}il10'3eko1 Opar(2)er■menrled verslon nrlflds form Ihtll tsemI loi bV4Ku 1lr,]l.V- .MWstNio�tlt4ls Capatf.y'ayiel-rW9 1f8i'a111p CgilrRlflaoltinlsc : u,piarrnlnnsi•ntDaLe C Clmi Dale17 32 Section II C. Membership Date 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—Change can be effectuated only by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)by all SAPFO partners. The Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)may advise if a change in date would improve the reporting or timeliness of the report. 2. Definition —The date at which student membership is calculated. This date is updated each year and also serves as the basis for projections along with the history from previous years. "For purposes of this Memorandum, the term "school membership" means the actual number of students attending school as of November 15 of each year. The figure is determined by considering the number of students enrolled(i.e. registered, regardless of whether a student is no longer attending school) and making adjustments for withdrawals, dropouts, deaths, retentions and promotions. Students who are merely absent from class on the date membership is determined as a result of sickness or some other temporary reason are included in school membership figures. Each year the School District shall transmit its school membership to the parties to this agreement no later than five (5) school days after November 15. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District November 15 of each year November 15 of each year 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: This can be analyzed in the future years to determine if it is an exemplary date. 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District No change at this time. No change at this time. 18 33 Section II II. Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) after review of the CIP requests from the School Districts. Action regarding CIP programs usually occurs during the BOCC budget Public Hearing process in the winter and spring of each year. The development of the CIP considers the conditions noted in the SAPFOTAC report released in the same CIP development year including LOS (level of service), capacity, and membership projections. 2. Definition —The process and resultant program to determine school needs and provide funding for new school facilities through a variety of funding mechanisms. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Not Applicable Not Applicable 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: The MOU outlines a system of implementing the SAPFO, including issuing Certificates of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) to new development if capacity is available. The Requests for CAPS will be evaluated using the most recently adopted Capital Investment Plan. A new Capital Investment Plan is currently under development for approval prior to June 30, 2024. 5. Recommendation: Not subject to staff review 19 34 Section II B. Student Membership Projection Methodology 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—This section is reviewed and recommended by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) to the BOCC for change, if necessary. 2. Definition —The method(s)by which student memberships are calculated for future years to determine total membership at each combined school level(Elementary, Middle, and High School)which take into consideration historical membership totals at a specific time (November 15) in the school year. These methods are also known as 'models'. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Presently, the average of five models is being used: namely 3, 5, and 10-year history/cohort survival methods, Orange County Planning Department Linear Wave, and Tischler Linear methods. Attachment ILB.1 includes a description of each model. 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Performance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model is in its prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity shortfalls so the annual Capital Investment Plan (CIP) updates can respond proactively with siting, design, and construction. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. Attachment II.B.3 shows the performance of the models for the 2023-24 school year from the prior year projection. 5. Recommendation: Analysis on the accuracy of the results is showing fairly accurate results, particularly for the average of all five models/ Orange County Schools has lower enrollment numbers than 10 years ago at all three school levels (Elementary, Middle, and High). Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools has lower enrollment numbers than 10 years ago at the Elementary and Middle levels while the High School level has experienced enrollment growth over the past 10 years. The historic growth rate is recorded by the models, but projected future growth is more difficult to accurately quantify. In all areas of the county, proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students are enrolled. The system is updated in November of each year,becoming part of the historical projection base. 20 35 STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION 1 CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS n O Tischler Linear(OCS& Mathematical formula;straight line projection y=((c"b)*x)+b Historical growth is reflected in projected growth ti CHCCS) y--projected population;c=historical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years BYM+(BYI+5(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o o increase in BYI of 5 every other year reflects (ACS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year; /oSL=/o of total increases in housing growth; reflects buildout membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year constraints member by school level BYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment OCP Linear Wavy Mathematical linear with percent variation among school decrease in BYI of 15 until school year 2010-2011 (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year,%SL=%of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year buildout constraints member by school level �r » K„=kn.t+(kn.,*0.01) Mathematical formula that computes the average nm1 advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(E G„I g�r)13 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=3 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same CHGGS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n_1(a) percentage of students in each grade level 0.4 kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year Cd andlor historical growth rates membershi other than kindergarten); revious rade's membershi a=avera e ~ P( 9=p g P� 9 l advancement rate;b=projected membership �-r C Kn=k�-t+(kmj*0.01) Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(E G„1 gn.t)!5 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g ,,,(a) percentage of students in each grade level kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average advancement rate;b=projected membership b Kn=knA+(k�r'0.01) A Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 advancement rate overthe previous 10 years for each a=(E Gn 19,1)1 10 Assumes a 1%v annual growth rate for the 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=10 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level y kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average advancement rate;b=projected membership 36 Section II Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2022-23) (Page 1 of 4) Orange County School District School Mern rship 2022-2023 School Year November 15, 2022 11/15/21 2022 Report 11/15/22 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2021 - Nov 2022 2021-22 2022-23 2022-23 Elementary 3023 3059 + 36 Model Projection is T 3012 L47 OCP 3015 L44 10C 2997 L62 5C 2995 L64 3C 2983 L76 Avera a 3000 L59 11/15/21 11/15/22 Middle 1656 1598 -58 Model Projection is T 1650 H52 OCP 1652 H54 10C 1613 H15 5C 1598 0 3C 1597 L1 Avera a 1622 H24 11/15/21 11/15/22 High 2472 2487 +15 Model Projection is T 2436 L51 OCP 2469 L18 10C 2526 H39 5C 2527 H40 3C 2554 H67 Avera a 2508 H21 Totals 11/15/21 11/15/22 Elementary 3023 3059 Middle 1656 1598 High 2472 2487 Total 7151 7144 -7 Model Projection is T 7098 L46 OCP 7136 L8 10C 7136 L8 5C 7120 L24 3C 7134 L10 Average 7130 L14 H means High L means Low 22 37 Section II Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2022-23) (Page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2022-2023 School Year (November 15, 2022) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT 3C Elementary School Level • Projections were low, ranging from 44 students to 76 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 59 students below actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 36 students between November 15, 2021 and November 14, 2022. Middle School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 1 student below to 54 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 24 students above actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 58 students between November 15, 2021 and November 14, 2022. High School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 51 students below to 67 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 21 students above actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 15 students between November 15, 2021 and November 14, 2022. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were all low, ranging from 8 to 46 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 14 students below actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 7 students, which is the sum of+36 at Elementary, -58 at Middle, and +15 at High. 23 38 Section II Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2022-23) (Page 3 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membershi 2022-2023 School Year November 15, 2022 11/15/21 2022 Report 11/15/22 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2021 - Nov 2022 2021-22 2022-23 2022-23 Elementary 4738 4657 -81 Model Projection is T 4710 H53 OCP 4619 L38 10C 4557 L100 5C 4526 L131 3C 4496 L161 Avera a 4582 L75 11/15/21 11/15/22 Middle 2802 2798 -4 Model Projection is T 2786 L12 OCP 2753 L45 10C 2736 L62 5C 2729 L69 3C 2709 L89 Avera a 2742 L56 11/15/21 11/15/22 High 3940 3950 + 10 Model Projection is T 3917 L33 OCP 3840 L110 10C 3918 L32 5C 3940 L10 3C 3924 L26 Avera a 3908 L42 Totals 11/15/21 11/15/22 Elementary 4738 4657 Middle 2802 2798 High 3940 3950 Total 11,480 11,405 -75 Model Projection is T 11,413 H8 OCP 11,212 L193 10C 11,211 L194 5C 11,195 L210 3C 11,129 L276 Average 11,232 L173 H means High L means Low 24 39 Section II Attachment II.13.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2022-23) (Page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2022-2023 School Year (November 15, 2022) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT 3C Elementary School Level • Projections were mixed ranging from 161 students below to 53 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 75 students below the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 81 students between November 15, 2021 and November 14, 2022. Middle School Level • Projections were low, ranging from 12 students to 89 students above below membership. On average, the projections were 56 students below the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 4 students between November 15, 2021 and November 14, 2022. High School Level • Projections were low, ranging from 10 students to 110 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 42 students below actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 10 students between November 15, 2021 and November 14, 2022. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were mixed, ranging from 276 students below to 8 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 173 students below the actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 75 students, which is the sum of-81 at Elementary, -4 at Middle, and +10 at High. 25 Attachment II.B.3 —Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysi462023-24) Section II (Page 1 of 4) Orange County School District School Mern rship 2023-2024 School Year November 15, 2023 11/15/22 2023 Report 11/15/23 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2021 - Nov 2022 2022-23 2023-24 2023-24 Elementary 3059 3055 -4 Model Projection is T 3038 L17 OCP 3040 L15 10C 3083 H28 5C 3088 H33 3C 3066 H11 Avera a 3063 H8 11/15/22 11/15/23 Middle 1598 1579 -19 Model Projection is T 1587 H8 OCP 1648 H69 10C 1576 L3 5C 1563 L16 3C 1568 1-11 Avera a 1588 H9 11/15/22 11/15/23 High 2487 2382 -105 Model Projection is T 2470 H88 OCP 2415 H33 10C 2445 H63 5C 2452 H70 3C 2451 H69 Avera a 2446 H64 Totals 11/15/22 11/15/23 Elementary 3059 3055 Middle 1598 1579 High 2487 2382 Total 7144 7016 -128 Model Projection is T 7095 H79 OCP 7103 H87 10C 7104 H88 5C 7103 H87 3C 7085 H69 Average 7097 H81 H means High L means Low 26 41 Section II Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2023-24) (Page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2023-2024 School Year (November 15, 2023) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 17 students below to 33 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 9 students above actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 4 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. Middle School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 3 students below to 69 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 9 students above actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 19 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. High School Level • Projections were high, ranging from 33 students to 88 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 64 students above actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 105 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 69 to 88 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 81 students above actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 128 students, which is the sum of-4 at Elementary, -19 at Middle, and -105 at High. 27 Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2023-24) 44age 3 of 4) Section II Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2023-2024 School Year (November 15, 2023) 11/15/22 2023 Report 11/15/23 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2022 - Nov 2023 2022-23 2023-24 2023-24 Elementary 4657 4575 -82 Model Projection is T 4624 H49 OCP 4588 H13 10C 4582 H7 5C 4561 L14 3C 4550 L25 Avera a 4581 H6 11/15/22 11/15/23 Middle 2798 2716 -82 Model Projection is T 2778 H62 OCP 2742 H26 10C 2685 L31 5C 2683 L33 3C 2660 L56 Avera a 2710 L6 11/15/22 11/15/23 High 3950 3974 +24 Model Projection is T 3922 L52 OCP 3860 L114 10C 3923 L51 5C 3938 L36 3C 3925 L49 Avera a 3914 L60 Totals 11/15/22 11/15/23 Elementary 4657 4575 Middle 2798 2716 High 3950 3974 Total 11,405 11,265 - 140 Model Projection is T 11,324 H59 OCP 11,190 L75 10C 11,190 L75 5C 11,182 L83 3C 11,135 L130 Average 11,205 L60 H means High L means Low 28 43 Section H Attachment 11.6.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2023-24) (Page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2023-2024 School Year (November 15, 2023) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were mixed ranging from 25 students below to 49 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 6 students above the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 82 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. Middle School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 56 students below to 62 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 6 students below the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 82 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. High School Level • Projections were low, ranging from 36 students to 114 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 60 students below actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 24 students between November 15, 2022 and November 14, 2023. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were mixed, ranging from 130 students below to 59 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 60 students below the actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 140 students, which is the sum of-82 at Elementary, -82 at Middle, and +24 at High. 29 44 Section II C. Student Membership Projections 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report certifications. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition — The result of the average of the five student projection models represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level (Elementary, Middle, and High) for each school district(Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District and Orange County School District). 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The 5 model average discussed in Section II.B The 5 model average discussed in Section (Student Projection Methodology). See II.B (Student Projection Methodology). See Attachment II.C.4 Attachment II.C.3 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show a decrease and negative growth rate for all three school levels for both districts in the 10-year projection period. Attachment ILC.3 and Attachment II.C.4 show year-by-year percent growth and projected level of service (LOS). The projection models were updated using current(November 15, 2023) memberships. Ten years of student membership were projected thereafter. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Elementary The previous year(2022-23)projections for November 2023 at this level were overestimated by 6 students. The actual membership decreased by 82 students. Over the past ten years, this level has experienced a decrease in nine out of ten school years, including this year. Growth rates during the past ten years have ranged from -8.76%to+1.20%. The district's eleventh elementary school,Northside Elementary School, opened in 2013. Capacity was decreased in 2017-18 due to changes in class size averages for kindergarten to third grade by the North Carolina State Legislature. The need for an additional elementary school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. 30 45 Section II Middle The previous year(2022-23)projections for November 2023 for this level were underestimated by 6 students. The actual membership decreased by 82 students. Over the past ten years, this level has shown varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from-4.17%to+3.78%. Capacity was increased in 2014-15 with the opening of the Culbreth Middle School science wing. The need for an additional middle school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. High School The previous year(2022-23)projections for November 2023 for this level were underestimated by 60 students. The actual membership increased by 24 students. Over the past ten years, this level has shown varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from-0.90 to +4.39%. The need for additional high school capacity at Carrboro High School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. Orange County School District Elementary The previous year(2022-23)projections for November 2023 at this level were overestimated by 9 students. Actual membership decreased by 4 students. Over the past ten years, this level experienced varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this period have ranged from -5.72%to +1.81%. Capacity was decreased in 2017-18 due to changes in class size averages for kindergarten to third grade by the North Carolina State Legislature. The need for an additional Elementary School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. Middle The previous year(2022-23)projections for November 2023 for this level were overestimated by 9 students. The actual membership decreased by 19 students. Over the past ten years, this level has experienced varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this period have ranged from-6.18%to +2.83%. The need for an additional Middle School is not anticipated in the 10- year projection period. High School The previous year(2022-23) projections for November 2023 for this level were overestimated by 64 students. The actual membership decreased by 105 students. Over the past ten years, this level has experienced varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this period ranged from-4.22%to +3.35%. In 2012-13 capacity decreased by 119 at Orange High School as a 31 46 Section II result of a N.C. Department of Public Instruction(DPI) study. The need for an additional high school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. 5. Recommendation: Use statistics as noted in 3 above 32 - r, f�-',Imo! d��' 'e��ll: 1�1°!l��l,'lii#.i'!•4'e'i — ��,.. ..:�A"'-•?sa,.,s�.,.�� 1—.'I�dl....�1'."Af'1�__��,.-�.:-.I—.!'...�__�_�:I��•li""!'�"'�1i7�7 —_: �NEI=! � � — c I- 48 CHCG>iMtn 6tlJtlenl Prole4ox I i I���' n Iv ti ._I a Y..•.. I �.la n aII nr.a -a,w» •.ex IY.r.�,' =n..a� ,.r. Y,.r.r Y.id..,�. Yr. - aAu Ywa YIY.'. 4,1Y$e�. aI..•u1-•- 1YYa1tl1a1•' AYtiHd,l� �Yl+9.4 .Y — f I ,Y IND CHCC3 Mudonl dlrj3j 1 loMr I I I l l NUNN, __ 111 j-rrl LL JIJ a��r_I al:'• Y M..'Y .. L.L. - I I 1 NMI I iW�Y IJ_. iu. —16. "m Aq .. . _ –.. r .I.V r i � fah� �J' l. I nI =I, � b'S _ _.'.•.t1.r1 .1 1 O CFICI:i puEonl MnJYnc1*11] INDO nil .-r nmJ do+'i yl E mru �u11 ■u■ Ar 1. do OWN 11 s mJsu' b .Yr -- O CD Nil NN aj&L Uil IN ml ul mi INN] vNNI a[ al Al 11 I malr '1. JlY JAIY b1 9Yi.p lai J M1 AYII dY1'Y IIR J 11 _1b�IF_ — _ _ v1.1hI d" 15•. , 1 � A , � d. . J J. � AdIB d {^3 fill J.Y1 ..� , - ,� rl ,e,.��1-1 •:'J d l.i.Y eaaYY1A -td IIeY AY•'liSiY•Si N. i. Yi lbl I Ip _ l NLi .a....eYl.• wbrY..H«rtYd I.A—Y..�..'..�I-I.-.Y«.�. A� .a. G W �D O I Fa• N 7Q W C.T 49 o' L?C 51uRMFrgecb3m(1}I4I eJlrrn.Y �i r I I i r B _ [ dA k'• '1R 1 � 3XI rx:. 3]al dJ11 1°a1 Jx' %91 :711 ]JI" lx' Yx1 J3: JB]', 3x1 J.R: lx. IkE §,sc r Sxl ir.Y'r., sy rw u�'Br,S :Fb R 6` ,.-e •4S+ -.V Z. +.t 'Y. ,7u T 'M° .1;:. .i :Ifq :" p,. MH .—I1 r- w. WN L. {" A .09 eJ*'.± K /H� �. ♦;,.....+.s ,f. w„Ba. w-•a<-,���..,a rl�.�wl ., � u� L. .-+,:.. .a,.� 1 l 1 ,I.rF�,ir�rTu+rr.Mrr�i„�ya�.>sv rlla4s f W pi�,ri FBS-,o irrielrr..ene s�asoelr�IrMi>•ii e.i.l.a.er,evri�a.:.l -.n a,:�inla rier.rea.yrB. .SGS.SkJJ6elrtFrgecGarJs�1� >y ti I."-h ma �a.Y..n*m rAj- x-.-;u rleu !6'41 Imal Jxiao mil. xnad AMA aux• X&JI &i-.0 =a xmk n C O C -Brw.eilewwWlrAtiNL. W q 1 M INt Sel i +[ i7 W III' ]a `e lel 1 _ >•`r...i.x:!ix.:a :11i :u rr AIF: iQ 3.Yf .'Y f,u n,iB r14` :-Yi s,u .iia a ,r n,ll 3y1 J+r flu it B1RLrt,f'J1cna 1^I i]a 2391 3Y1 3111 33e J3M d}I 311E 2911 2t1 ]d`! JSB i31f: d.a 3111 3311 336Sill !J@ 41aSE klJ:IepiVJ! ,V8_ 'moi - F9 _ �1 _ -Mf fry ,•! (� t I I"r _pl*ec4nIRPSJ J a c d: lfa� f a a e -.71, a. L b "S Y„+r$S51YaRl�rujllrpofrs(ih O RF, `3 rrss rA®r xrw Jea;e x::-:1 1CJm I rna raver Jxen R;i3D ravel rm l,L :aa� xna. ^ B--a I � hr. 1'P' alY vfY A:v. eW ly l"t• : i .�rt.a as,.a..�,: ._..__I .:.;::: :-. _. � e �: I: ,.. ,- ,_ A3' 1F: e❑ n:. .:: ,;; ..I ..[ sC I„ Lr I•+4.+,• a1W i. i 1 EN 9!7 J,lai J.?r .'F7 d RfA aM, UM a'IM _ .. h+. 1BaxliArl a+'+s1+�PlI RZ11 J -0 {W4 3 M4 3CRA 0FF4 IU4 Lq i 10% W ` gr P'�!'�8�� r•ui rl x����.i,Y�}�, �I,..i.wi .� Q f`I Wx N�• 50 Y � I � _ I R �I .IY[31ule,A'i 111 1 EB_ kms` 1 IIF tw IIqu va _ W%".Wlh.Z _ Ilf 1. 1•YYf " Wf uP iif 1� 114 lid Uwa Wu fJQ Ie° dial Kul no 61@ Y.iT dte Nr �.. 1eaLL ai9 il. I!_ -.. Y IIN .LI I_� -:Y .rc -IH I A 1� .,._.� ,�.�a....r.....-�-�..a Yu�.:aps ,_..�r�ra �,•u .r._ ..:sir _ W wlw�a.w.tl•�r��s•.w,li�r..�a ww.ar��-- �rn„nwwwe,aw..�tl.ea...rx..lrx• �' i is e•P jw! iw �.Ix NP r�lt• 1114 Illll 1�1- a.l� l'? cctil.rwra. e arYe 11S f.l• rA l� [ 3 PmiKiiel�41p 1--' _ I _ CD I � - I �Iset. - ■ 1 IN% q 1 I Ill .sw^y�:LS ur ldlav ]AI In :iT 1fA' 1T1 ]il I:ii 1:IIL' lA - lil IY'1 ]CS %5 LRI ero•.:li'ar:aase wF tli'rr'un-Mia.=] dl i _�i i:i —.- I.. ham+•' !IT•lil,s/k+tl i10 !� ka0� 4L 4L 4]Si J]I9 i. tl]'l' - 11As 471 YZl 4'!!1 wry, md . N W ..�-�-.� •...�.:�-..���..stl�s '.�-Ferran r�.a:=a,i:�';Iw 1I N UQ• 51 Section II D. Student Membership Growth Rate 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) each year and referred to the BOCC for annual report certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition —The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections resulting from the average of the five models represented by 10-year numerical membership projections by school level for each school district. This does not represent the year-by- year growth rate that may be positive or negative,but rather the average of the annual anticipated growth rates over the next 10 years. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District See Attachment II.D.2 See Attachment ILD.2 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The membership figures and percentage growth The membership figures and percentage on the attachments show a decline in student growth on the attachments show a decline membership at each school level within the in student membership at each school system. Projected Average Annual Growth Rate level within the system. Projected over next ten years: Average Annual Growth Rate over next ten years: School Year Projection Made School Year Projection Made 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- Level 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Level 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Elementary 0.65% -0.23% -0.88% -0.47% -1.14 Elementary 0.84% -0.02% -0.04% 0.26% -0.14 Middle -0.07% -1.50% -2.10% -1.77% -1.96 Middle 0.37% -0.67% -0.72% -0.15% -0.44 High 0.03% -1.44% 1 -2.15% -2.09% -1.83 High 0.21% -0.98% -1.06% 0.98% -0.91 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Use statistics as noted. Use statistics as noted. 37 52 2022-2023 Orange County Student Projections Elementar School Year 2022-2023 7423- 2024- 2025- 202S. 2027- 2026- 2029 203*- 2731- 20 - acltuat 2074 2D25 2026 2027 2m 2029 2030 2CK31 21432 2033 h4erne�l SI lip .3 Dt5'x{ 3,063 3 D44 1!3:` 3 U61 3, 8 ?08b 3 1�� 3 1L;i 3 13Ms Average 0/. Increase 0.13,6 -O.fA -0.604,, L7.�E3�� 0z:�8% r755 D� +6 4.644a 0.52-;/. 0.55% Middle ,1 Sclr+a•nl Y 2022, 20x23- Z02�1- 2112& 20 202''+- 20 2x330= 1- CZ *il 2 2 202'7► 2 2 2750 2i I 2 -21W. w � Membership 1 5 1,589 1 5711 1,584 1 534 1.555 1,5A4 1.551 a 456 1,564 1.574 Average 1A Increae,e -�7 6Q% -0 r: °5%_ 0 39% -002% -1,20% 1 -1 33% 1 0.44% r1 31% I 0.0 75 4.64 4 Hi h School y t7 2[422-=3 202 2024- 2M. 2026- 2077- 2428 2m- 2030` 2441- 20M School Year lactuml 2024 2023 2VA 2027 20m 2428 2034 2431 2= 2m o I Membership '.4a7 2AA6 '4 _ is+' _299 2..2,a3 21,s_ �'�r� 2 254 E 0 Awerage°7(i Inrareaw 1 63°70 1 06146 -2-79 DA 0 a3% -0.24% -004% 035% -D:a4l,5 -0.152% o �' N � W CD [Lapel Hill/Carrboro Student Projections o � Element;8ry o w � Z22-21M Scha of Year 20 M— 21 4- Z02& =7- M& 4M- X131- "I- 2=32- Lwtmall 2024 2m 2{x27_ 2028 $ 2030 2=1 2 w Mharr}I r hl 46"57 1 L-,81 -1 tai S 4.4110 4 3_O 4 3A A-M4 4.3f34 4411 �426 $x139 Average% Increase 1 C.:, i 1 F,7% t gnr D K)% —rc,080A 0.24% 1 { 221A 0 39% 0.33% a30% o ow Middle School Year 2322-2023 2m 24x2,0- 5- 2029- 2b27- 2028 - 2mo-- 1- 2032- 1z1 2>Il2aS 2 2027 2428l}29 2€1401 �if#:i1 Zt3^t 2 Membership 27 #3 1 2, 710 .531 2,577 b'-'--w 7 ' 2.451 2,360 2,319 2.322 _331 1: :�, N .��. Avera %lncreare -3 16% -2%1 0A -1 54% -337% 3 76% -1,740A 0 J3S� ri 3.94 1,32';A High School a' � 2D22-2 3 2023- 2024- 2G- 20 2027- 2425- 2 2�3#- 201- School Yaw actual 2024 2025 2026 2{x27 2023 2429 2030 20[01 2431 2€18 � c Mernter5hl 3 904° 3, 4 .3 3x,2 s7)7- t,7G 1 nc•. 3.5e434 0 3 35F 3,273 3107 Aver a incream -G 92% -133% -1 w 3S -3 1'34 2 1 DDA -199% 58°x5 2 14% 48% 31% � C !r rD 0C ks4 N O N �' 53 .2023-2024 � Orange County Student Projections Elementary SChaol Yasr 2023- 024 2D24- 2029- 21128- 202F. 2429, 2029- 2030, 21131. 2032- 2033- achw 2028 2026 2027 2028 242 2034 2031 2032 2033 2034 t.ICngI0C36,d-+ 1 3.0155 3,011 1 I6:., 2 `+!;-. 1 2'058 i t Ll6 I 2 JU °ti. 2,c-196 3.01 Avera a lnmoso -0 13°b -1.4+4% -0.85% .0.4911c. J 2P. ' =n_56% 0.38% 0.550°x5 0.34% 1 0.36% 0-52°b ^ Middle School Year 2423-2024 2024- 2S- 20213- 2+027- 21128, 21'429- 2030- 2031-- 2032- 33- y lactuad} 242!x• 2028 2427 2426 2020 203# 2031 2032 2033 21 y � I,`+'4-1 1.571 1 ir,l', 1 ,! 3 1 I: ' 1 ',3'=1 a 1.511, 1447 15ii+? I ',fifl n� aw°"a lnere.,95e 1.19°4 -0.42% 0.43Pb -1.92% -1.4700 !.'„ 171 5 ,°o I c '` P.14°v. 4.51 qv >v � Hic1 School � - kQ5- 2027- 20^x.3- 2428- 2430- 2+1931- 203.2- 2033- A" 00 Schad Year ' 20260 2024 UX 2031 20 2 204 ?r ;.y CD C h1f�i37t 5p11 2.3B2 2 377 2306 22bg iJ 2M 2.2`x113 2 250 2,25 1 2 ! 1M ak� rnAw %la ta -•1 2Z% -0 23°0 -2 05'n -2 COD, G 4800 -0 1 las -077% O MO. -1 OQ% -2 n 1 Do ►�`'t N 0 1 0 Chapel Hila/Carrboro Student Projections o ElementaryN 2023-2112+4 2034- 202b- 21126- 2027_ 20213_ 2029- 2030- 2031- 2032- 2033- r tD School Year N n actual 2.026 2021 2027 20O 21129 2030 2031 2432 2033 2034 o O �.fe•+17,C�' Fil'} 4 575 436 4,291 4 I ^I �_ 1-"+ -1 ca'.1 4.[k4€f 4{15:1 �RJSr .UIQ �1,U74 .wp >✓. Avor9art _,Ina a5e._ 1 7 "0 303% -3.284a 1 ,�-.. I _I. : ; u a2% n.1345 0.10% L Ii5° 425"m Middle A. 211^5.2024 21]2x1- 202$ 2024 2427- 2021 2029 2050- 2113f- 2052- X33- � sch°cg r actual) 2425 2026 2427 2026 2029 2034 2031 2032 2033 2034 4.1cy-17K,whip 1 2.716 2,W, 2.61 r 2.,54.601 2G1.,�. 2:4.5{1 2,35rJ l 2_3(k5 2 SLI 2,°2`12 I 2 2 >v Avsra %lncreasa -9.9 -1.72% -188% -1.11 -J 79QF* 4.04- --29% 9 _°E, 6.07% 0-I ii%-- High School W x 2023,202+4 2424- 2025- 2026- 2427- 2026- 2025- 2430- 2+531- 2032- r School Year a +tual F1125 2026 2027 2420 2029 2030 2051 2032 215533 41ri75 T4i51Fi =11.4 i q lI 4CQ -:I ' Avera r�e'lncr+e`ese C.C714o 1.20°0 -01.55°n 1Fa' I ti a -1 1i1']p -218 0- -1.98 0 1.55 -37 -2'�o ►tetrA C � n w rA fD N W O �Ai ►"r' 54 Section II E. Student / Housing Generation Rate 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition — Student generation rate refers to the number of public school students per housing unit constructed in each school district, as defined in the Student Generation Rate Study completed by TisherBise on October 28, 2014. Housing units include single-family detached, single family attached/duplex, multifamily, and manufactured homes. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District See Attachment II.E.1 See Attachment II.E.1 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: At the January 2014 SAPFOTAC meeting, members discussed the increased number of students generated in both school districts from new development,particularly multifamily housing. The SAPFOTAC recommended further evaluation of the adopted Student Generation Rates and the impacts the number of bedrooms a particular housing type may have on student generation rates. As a result, Orange County entered into a contract with TischlerBise to update the student generation rate analysis. The new student generation rates were approved on May 19, 2015 and are shown in Attachment II.E.1. New rates from the 2014 Student Generation Rates for Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District Report are based on an inventory of recently built units from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013. It should be noted that students are generated from new housing as well as from existing housing where new families have moved in. The CAPS system estimates new development impacts and associated student generation,but it is important to understand that student increases are a composite of both of these factors. This effect can be dramatic and can vary greatly between areas and districts where either new 40 55 Section II housing is dominant or new families move into a large inventory of existing housing stock. 5. Recommendation: No change at this time. 41 56 o' ti TischlelrBise Student Generation Rates — 2014 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Schools 0-3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms S+Bedrooms. Weighted Average Single-Family Detached 0.61 -0.84 1.13 0.84 0-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Attached 0127 0.42 0.3a Multifalmllyl0ther 0.11 0.47 0.18 Manufactured Norma 0,268 U.86 0,78 Weight Overage for Chapel HjWOarrbora School Mstritt 0.0 � Orange County Schools 0-3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5+ Radrunms Weighted Average ~ I Single-Family Detached 0,35 057 0.57 0.44 n >r 0-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms Weighted Average � Bingle-Family Attached 0.07 0.17 0.15 mulblamilylother 0.108 0.67 0.17 � Manufactured Home 0.67 0..47 0.52 Weight Average for Orange County School Bistrict0.37 S urm Swdtm Genawivn Flaw*fcT mngc County Schuul DiAxic aml Clopel I till rrbum&hwl Nano.TLwhk-rB ,Oauber J.X,I A Rewipod Moy T.'_(1 15 N N O H+ Un 57 Section II III. Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process Abstract: The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance process has two distinct components: A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (Process 1) Timeframe: In November of each year, Student Membership and Building Capacity is transmitted from the school districts to the Orange County Board of Commissioners for consideration and approval and used in the following years CIP (e.g. November 15, 2023 membership numbers used to develop a CIP to be considered for adoption in June 2024). Process Framework 1. SAPFOTAC projects future student membership from historical data, current membership and hypothetical growth rates from established methodologies. 2. School Districts and BOCC compare projections to existing capacity and proposed Capital Investment Plan. 3. SAPFOTAC forwards data and projections to all SAPFO partners. 4. School Districts develop Capital Investment Plan Needs Assessment during this process 5. The Capital Investment Plan work sessions and Public Hearings are conducted by the BOCC in the spring of each year. 6. The adoption of CIP that sets forth monies and timeframe for school construction (future capacity)by BOCC. 43 58 Section III School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process 1 - Capital Investment Planning (CIPS Projection Method1 CIP Approval CAPS System (Historical Membership (Proposed new construction (Certificate of Adequate plus Hypothetical Growth i.e. school capacity added by Public Schools) Rate) number of seats and year) Actual Adjustments (Current year actual replaces y past year membership projections) a 'Historical Membership is a product of students generated from: (1)pre-existing/approved undeveloped lots where new housing is c built, (2) existing housing stock with new families/children, and(3) newly approved housing development(in the future this component will be known as CAPS approved development). n 2The only part of the CAPS System (i.e., computer spreadsheet subdivision tracking) that receives data from the Process 1 CIP a includes the actual membership (November 15 of preceding CIP year) and new school capacity amount (seats) in a specific year pursuant to the CIP. a z 0 P 44 59 Section III B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Update (Process 2) Timeframe: The CAPS system is updated approximately November 15 of each year when the school districts report actual membership and `pre-certified' capacity, whether it is CIP associated or prior `joint action' agreement. `Joint action' determinations of changes in capacity due to State rules or other non-construction related items are anticipated to be done prior to the November 15 capacity and membership reporting date. This update may reflect the Board of County Commissioners action on the earlier year Capital Investment Plan(CIP) as it affects capacity and addition of new actual fall membership. The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) stays in effect until the following year —(e.g.: November 15, 2005 to November 14, 2006). New development is originally logged for a certain year. As the CAPS system is updated, each CAPS projection year is `absorbed' by the actual estimate of a given year. Later year CAPS projections of the same development remain in the future year CAPS system accordingly. For example, if a 50-lot subdivision is issued a CAPS, 15 lots may be assigned to "Year 1," 10 lots to "Year 2," 10 lots to "Year 3," 10 lots to "Year 4," and 5 lots to "Year 5." When"Year 1" is updated, the students generated from the 15 lots are absorbed by the actual estimate. The students generated in"Years 2, 3, 4, and 5" are held in the CAPS system and added to the appropriate year when the CAPS system is updated. The City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO and does not require that CAPS be issued prior to approving development activities. Increasing development within this area of the county has the potential to encumber a significant portion of the available capacity within the Orange County School District. Although the SAPFO system is not formally regulated in Mebane, staff monitors development activity and when students enter the school system, their enrollment is calculated and used in future school projection needs. Please note that the two processes (CIP and CAPS) are on separate, but parallel tracks. However, the CIP does create a crossover of capacity information between the two processes. For example, the SAPFO system for both school districts that will be established/initiated/ 45 60 Section III certified each year in November and is based on prior year created and/or planned CIP capacity and current school year membership. The SAPFOTAC report including new current year membership and projections are to be used for upcoming CIP development as noted in Process 1. CIP Process 1 (for CIP 2024 - 2034) November 2022—June 2023 (using 2023 SAPFOTAC Report) SAPFO CAPS Process 2 (for SAPFO System 2024—2025) November 2023 -November 2024 46 61 School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process 2 - Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Allocation 2024 CAPS system is effective November 15, 2023 through November 14, 2024. The system is updated with new membership, CIP capacity changes, and any other BOCC/School District joint action approved capacity prior to November 15, 2023. This information is received within 5 days of November 15 and posted within the next 15 days. This CAPS system recalibration is retroactive to November 15, 2023. CAPS Allocation System CAPS System' to 1. Certified capacity AC = SC — (ADM+ND l+ND2+. . .) b 2 LOS Capacity o 3. Actual Membership 4. Year Start Available Capacity i 5. Ongoing Current Available Capacity (includes available n capacity decreases from approved CAPS development by year) 6. CAPS approved development AC>O - Issue CAPS a. Total units b. Single Familyl AC<0 - Defer CAPS to later date C. Other Housings b 'Student Generation Rates from CAPS housing type create future membership estimate. Please note that this CAPS membership future estimate is c different than the projection based on historical data and projection models used in the CIP process 1. This estimate only captures new development impact,which is the component that the SAPFO can regulate. 0 a AC—Available Capacity- Starts at Annual Update Capacity and reduces as CAPS approved development is entered into the system. SC—Certified School Level Capacity n ADM—Average Daily Membership Y ND—New Development;ND 1 means first approved CAPS approved development 47 .. MOW �m1�mf��©�r�.�m����m1�mf�mf�ml�ml�ml�ml�ml��f�m1 .: . .: •�.: • . .: �����m1�m1�m1��1��1�®1��1��1��f��1��1��1��1�Pm1f�F�1�FiID1 ��1��1�®1�F�1�E11�F1�km1�Em1�m1��1�tm1��f��411��1��1��1��f��lff��l��f � ����