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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda 01-16-24; 7-a - Presentation of School Membership Projections and School Capacity Calculations 1 ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: January 16, 2024 Action Agenda Item No. 7-a SUBJECT: Presentation of School Membership Projections and School Capacity Calculations DEPARTMENT: County Manager ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: Attachment 1. OREd Out of Capacity Kirk Vaughn, (919) 245-2153 Tables Attachment 2. Woolpert School Capacity Calculations for Orange County PURPOSE: To receive presentations from the NC State Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) on its ten-year school membership projections and from County staff on utilizing the Woolpert capacity calculation. BACKGROUND: Over the past year, the School Capital Needs Workgroup and the SAPFOTEC, a technical advisory committee, have discussed making improvements to the School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) enrollment projection and capacity determination process, based on commonly identified limitations of the process. The County has worked with OREd and Woolpert to develop alternative enrollment projection and capacity calculations frameworks. OREd and County staff will present these updated frameworks. OREd Enrollment Projections The County currently projects future enrollment through a series of mathematical formulas based on historic enrollment. Through the Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) test, the County receives information from Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Hillsborough, and the County's planning departments regarding future residential development, but does not directly utilize that information in the future year projections. Through a review of peer counties, County planning staff identified that most nearby counties use OREd to provide student enrollment projections. Both districts also have worked with OREd in prior years, and Orange County Schools is currently working with OREd through its ongoing redistricting process. OREd utilizes land-use and future residential development projections directly in its ten-year enrollment projections. It determines the student generation rates of specific neighborhoods and makes estimates of generation rates of future developments based on similar existing 2 neighborhoods. OREd has worked with the districts and the planning departments of the County and all municipalities, including Mebane, to make its own enrollment projections for both districts. Woolpert Capacity Calculations The current SAPFO utilizes the building capacity estimates based on state and school district guidelines as established in 2002. The capacity estimates have been updated based on renovations, additions, and changes to state guidelines in the intervening decades, but the underlying base assumptions have not been reviewed in that time. The base assumptions also have not been updated to accommodate Pre-K and Exceptional Children (EC) classrooms. As a part of the Woolpert assessment and long-term capital planning contract, the consultants went through each school building and conducted a thorough review of the size, condition, and type of each room. After accounting for each type of room present in each building, Woolpert was able to make its own capacity estimates for the districts. These estimates can exclude the classrooms that the districts have identified as being reserved for Pre-K. EC classrooms are calculated as having a much smaller capacity than general classrooms. The estimates also have a formula to account for course diversity, like arts, band and languages classes that require different rooms. It prorates the capacity of each school to 95% at the Elementary level, 85% at the Middle School level and 75% at the High School level. Based on utilizing the Woolpert capacity framework, capacity in the districts increases by 78 students. If the Board of Commissioners changes capacity policy to exclude Pre-K classrooms, the capacity drops by 574 seats, resulting in a net decrease of 496. The table below illustrates the changes in calculation at both districts and at each level. CarrboroChapel Hill - City SchoolsMiddle SAPFO Capacity 5664 2944 3975 12583 Woolpert Capacity(/excluding Pre-K) 5704/5334 2993 3701 12398/ 12028 Difference (/excluding Pre-K) +40/-330 +49 -274 -185/-555 • 11;;'11 i 11 U111C7 MU&N MT. . . SAPFO Capacity 3361 2166 2939 8466 Woolpert Capacity(/excluding Pre-K) 3655/3451 2396 2678 8729/8525 Difference (/excluding Pre-K) +294/+90 +230 -261 +263/+S9 In reviewing the OREd projections against both capacity models, no district exceeds the CAPS threshold of 105%, 107% or 110% for Elementary, Middle and High School. That threshold represents the point at which CAPS could no longer be issued for new developments, and the County must plan for a school expansion. In both districts, the high school enrollment will exceed 100% capacity at different points in the 10-year horizon with the Woolpert Capacity calculation. FINANCIAL IMPACT: There is no financial impact associated with the presentations. SOCIAL JUSTICE IMPACT: There are no Orange County Social Justice Goal impacts associated with this item. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT: There are no Orange County Environmental Responsibility Goal impacts associated with this item. 3 RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends that the Board receive the presentations of the OREd Enrollment Projections and the Woolpert Capacity Calculations, provide comments and questions, and consider the impact of amending the SAPFO process to utilize these frameworks. 4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Out-of-Capacity Table 1.2023-24 November membership data provided by CHCCS 2.Capacities provided by SAPFO(1112023) 3.Pre-K enrollment not included. Capacities Enrollment I Forecasted Month-1 ADM 2023-24 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 Elementary Schools(K-5) Northside Elementary 568 373 370 364 345 352 355 360 364 372 375 379 Carrboro Elementary 518 488 489 484 489 493 492 507 513 523 529 534 Seawell Elementary 450 430 434 442 435 433 450 470 473 486 487 481 Ephesus Elementary 436 355 356 352 380 402 404 412 416 425 430 434 Estes Hills Elementary 516 339 334 327 334 342 346 347 350 358 361 365 FPG Elementary 522 509 493 492 484 491 489 491 497 507 512 517 Glenwood Elementary 412 411 412 421 428 423 414 428 439 444 457 463 McDougle Elementary 548 466 458 441 455 449 454 464 468 478 483 488 Scroggs Elementary 558 382 363 363 348 355 348 361 365 373 377 380 Morris Grove Elementary 568 397 380 351 354 364 357 372 376 384 388 392 Rashkis Elementary 568 425 413 405 396 400 405 404 403 412 417 419 Totals 5664 4575 4502 4442 4448 4505 4514 4616 4665 4762 4815 4852 Middle Schools(6-8) McDougle Middle 732 708 705 712 689 679 647 645 640 622 649 656 Culbreth Middle 774 674 667 661 652 628 630 623 626 599 632 592 Phillips Middle 706 583 563 604 604 575 570 590 625 619 630 635 Smith Middle 732 751 762 734 739 743 729 708 706 697 727 742 Totals 2944 2716 2697 2712 2684 2625 2576 2566 2597 2537 2639 2624 High Schools(9-12) Carrboro High 800 885 893 900 899 923 899 899 875 882 872 869 Chapel Hill High 1620 1642 1625 1658 1667 1647 1677 1637 1635 1620 1589 1607 East Chapel Hill High 1515 1412 1390 1359 1323 1322 1302 1281 1263 1279 1271 1292 Phoenix Academy High 40 35 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 Totals 3975 3974 3946 3955 3926 3930 3916 3856 3811 3818 3771 3806 System Total 12583 11265 11145 11108 11058 11060 11006 11038 11073 11117 11225 11282 Capacity Legend <95% 95%-100°/ 100%-105 >1056% Operations Research and Education Laboratory Institute for Transportation Research and Education October 26,2023 North Carolina State University 5 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Out-of-Capacity Table 1.2023-24 November membership data provided by CHCCS 2.Capacities provided by Woolpert(1112023) 3.Pre-K enrollment not included. Capacities Enrollment I Forecasted Month-1 ADM 2023-24 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 Elementary Schools(K-5) Northside Elementary 523 373 370 364 345 352 355 360 364 372 375 379 Carrboro Elementary 500 488 489 484 489 493 492 507 513 523 529 534 Seawell Elementary 333 430 434 442 435 433 450 470 473 486 487 481 Ephesus Elementary 493 355 356 352 380 402 404 412 416 425 430 434 Estes Hills Elementary 500 339 334 327 334 342 346 347 350 358 361 365 FPG Elementary 542 509 493 492 484 491 489 491 497 507 512 517 Glenwood Elementary 400 411 412 421 428 423 414 428 439 444 457 463 McDougle Elementary 537 466 458 441 455 449 454 464 468 478 483 488 Scroggs Elementary 482 382 363 363 348 355 348 361 365 373 377 380 Morris Grove Elementary 537 397 380 351 354 364 357 372 376 384 388 392 Rashkis Elementary 486 425 413 405 396 400 405 404 403 412 417 419 Totals 5333 4575 4502 4442 4448 4505 4514 4616 4665 4762 4815 4852 Middle Schools(6-8) McDougle Middle 772 708 705 712 689 679 647 645 640 622 649 656 Culbreth Middle 775 674 667 661 652 628 630 623 626 599 632 592 Phillips Middle 734 583 563 604 604 575 570 590 625 619 630 635 Smith Middle 712 751 762 734 739 743 729 708 706 697 727 742 Totals 2993 2716 2697 2712 2684 2625 2576 2566 2597 2537 2639 2624 High Schools(9-12) Carrboro High 851 885 893 900 899 923 899 899 875 882 872 869 Chapel Hill High 1535 1642 1625 1658 1667 1647 1677 1637 1635 1620 1589 1607 East Chapel Hill High 1275 1412 1390 1359 1323 1322 1302 1281 1263 1279 1271 1292 Phoenix Academy High 40 35 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 Totals 3701 3974 3946 3955 3926 3930 3916 3856 3811 3818 3771 3806 System Total 12027 11265 11145 11108 11058 11060 11006 11038 11073 11117 11225 11282 Capacity Legend <95% 95%-100°/ 100%-105% >105% Operations Research and Education Laboratory Institute for Transportation Research and Education October 26,2023 North Carolina State University 6 Orange County Schools Out-of-Capacity Table 1. 2023-24 November membership data provided by OCS 2. Capacities provided by SAPFO (11/2023) 3. Pre-K enrollment not included. Capacities Enrollment Forecasted Month-1 ADM 2023-24 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 Elementary Schools (K-5) Central Elementary 428 291 285 285 290 293 305 316 334 342 347 354 Efland Cheeks Elementary 455 526 534 528 549 563 564 571 561 558 569 570 Grady Brown Elementary 490 406 402 414 418 419 419 417 416 412 414 414 Hillsborough Elementary 420 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 New Hope Elementary 526 527 514 510 522 528 528 544 549 551 558 558 Pathways Elementary 540 312 315 307 305 308 301 292 284 286 281 284 River Park Elementary 502 556 554 558 552 560 563 579 584 587 595 595 Totals 3361 3055 3042 3039 3074 3108 3117 3157 3164 3173 3200 3211 Middle Schools (6-8) A L Stanback Middle 740 633 639 633 655 644 662 663 670 676 696 698 Gravelly Hill Middle 700 411 406 463 1 475 508 525 562 578 593 616 627 Orange Middle 726 535 530 547 553 541 544 ( 540 ( 542 536 534 538 Totals 2166 1579 1575 1643 1684 1694 1731 1765 1790 1806 1845 1863 High Schools (9-12) Cedar Ridge High 1500 1117 1138 1172 1143 1157 1174 1173 1220 1250 1266 1312 Orange High 1399 1222 1239 1180 1191 1253 1265 1295 1334 1365 1377 1425 Partnership Academy 40 43 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 Totals 2939 2382 2419 1 2394 2376 2452 2481 2510 2596 2657 2684 2779 System Total 8466 7016 7035 1 7076 7133 7253 7328 7432 7550 7636 7730 7854 Utilization Legend <95% 95%-100'/. 100%-10 >105% Operations Research and Education Laboratory Institute for Transportation Research and Education October 26,2023 North Carolina State University 7 Orange County Schools Out-of-Capacity Table 1. 2023-24 November membership data provided by OCS 2. Capacities provided by Woolpert(11/2023) 3. Pre-K enrollment not included. Capacities Enrollment Forecasted Month-1 ADM 2023-24 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 Elementary Schools (K-5) Central Elementary 408 291 285 285 290 293 305 316 334 342 347 354 Efland Cheeks Elementary 500 526 53j, 28 549 563 564 571 561 558 569 570 Grady Brown Elementary 412 406 402 _ 414 418 419 419 417 416 412 414 414 Hillsborough Elementary 556 437 437 i 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 New Hope Elementary 542 527 514 ( 510 522 528 528 544 549 551 558 558 Pathways Elementary 479 312 315 307 305 308 301 292 284 286 281 284 River Park Elementary 556 556 554 558 552 560 563 579 584 587 595 595 Totals 3453 3055 3042 3039 3074 3108 3117 3157 3164 3173 3200 3211 Middle Schools (6-8) A L Stanback Middle 877 633 639 633 655 644 662 663 670 676 696 698 Gravelly Hill Middle 695 411 406 463 1 475 508 525 562 578 593 616 627 Orange Middle 824 535 530 547 553 541 544 ( 540 ( 542 536 534 538 Totals 2396 1579 1575 1643 1684 1694 1731 1765 1790 1806 1845 1863 High Schools (9-12) Cedar Ridge High 1328 1117 1138 1172 1143 1157 1174 1173 1220 1250 1266 1312 Orange High 1310 1222 1239 1180 1191 1253 1265 1295 1334 1365 1377 1425 Partnership Academy 40 43 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 Totals 2678 2382 2419 1 2394 2376 2452 2481 2510 2596 2657 2684 2779 System Total 8527 7016 7035 1 7076 7133 7253 7328 7432 7550 7636 7730 7854 Utilization Legend <95% 95%-100'/. 100%-10 >105% Operations Research and Education Laboratory Institute for Transportation Research and Education October 26,2023 North Carolina State University 8 Woolpert Capacity Calculations for Orange County Level Level Capacity Class Type Students/ Total Total Rm Rooms Capacity Adjustment HS 75% Art Classroom 22 12 198.0 HS 75% Band Classrooms 38 6 171.0 HS 75% Orch./Strings Classrooms 42 2 63.0 HS 75% Drama Classroom/Black Box/Theater Arts 42 7 220.5 HS 75% Classroom - Core Academics 22 245 4,042.5 HS 75% CTE-GeneralHigh-Bay Space 21 8 126.0 HS 75% CTE General Lab 19 17 242.3 HS 75% Fitness Weight Room 19 11 156.8 HS 75% Gymnasium (Main) 38 7 199.5 HS 75% Science Classroom/Lab Combo 22 50 825.0 HS 75% EC Life Skills Classroom 8 3 18.0 HS 75% EC Self-Contained Classroom 8 6 36.0 HS 100% Alternative High School* 40 2 80.0 MS 85% Art Classroom 22 10 187.0 MS 85% Band/Orch./Strings Classrooms 38 8 258.4 MS 85% Classroom - Core Academics 22 193 3,609.1 MS 85% CTE General Lab 19 13 210.0 MS 85% Fitness Weight Room 19 3 48.5 MS 85% Gymnasium (Main) 38 7 226.1 MS 85% Science Classroom/Lab Combo 22 44 822.8 MS 85% EC Self-Contained Classroom 8 4 27.2 ES 95% Classroom - Core Academics 19.5 465 8,614.1 ES 95% Classroom Pre-K** 0 31 - ES 95% EC Self-Contained Classroom 12 15 171.0 Total 20,552.6 * The districts' two alternative high schools are calculated at their current capacity estimate, rather than estimated by number of classrooms. ** Pre-K reserved classrooms provided by districts.