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Agenda 05-16-2023; 8-e - Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance – Approval and Certification of 2023 Report
1 ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: May 16, 2023 Action Agenda Item No. 8-e SUBJECT: Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance —Approval and Certification of 2023 Report DEPARTMENT: Planning and Inspections ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: 1. Town of Carrboro Resolution Cy Stober, Planning and Inspections 2. 2023 SAPFOTAC Annual Report Director, 919-245-2592 3. 11 x17 Copies of Student Projection Charts Ashley Moncado, Planner 111, 919-245-2589 PURPOSE: To approve and certify the 2023 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) Report. BACKGROUND: At the December 13, 2022 Board of County Commissioners' Business meeting, the Board approved the November 15, 2022 actual membership and capacity numbers for both Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS) and Orange County Schools (OCS). Additional approvals/certifications, as outlined in the table below, are required by the SAPFO partners MOUs (Memoranda of Understanding). At the March 21, 2023 BOCC Business meeting, the Board received for transmittal the draft 2023 SAPFOTAC Report. A letter and the Executive Summary of the Report were sent to all SAPFO partners advising them of the availability of the draft Report and inviting comments. Comments were requested for submission by April 24, 2023. The Carrboro Town Council received the draft 2023 SAPFOTAC Report at its April 18, 2023 meeting and approved the Resolution contained in Attachment 1. The Chapel Hill Town Council received the draft report on April 19, 2023 and provided no comments. The exact pages of the 2023 SAPFOTAC Report that the BOCC will be acknowledging and certifying are listed below. The context (i.e. definitions and standards) of the various SAPFO elements precedes the data to be certified and is within the full report. Page in Element SAPFOTAC Certification to be made by BOCC Report Building Capacity with Capital Building capacity and current year Investment Plan (CIP) changes 12 through 17 membership for OCS and CHCCS were approved at the December 13, 2022 (Change from previous ear meeting. Student Membership Projection Methodology 20 Certification that the average of 5 models will be used, as noted in #3 on page 21 No change from previous year 2 Student Membership Projections ■ Orange County Elementary, Middle, and High Schools Student Projections (row that notes average only) (p. 35) 35 and 36 ■ Chapel Hill - Carrboro Elementary, Middle, and High Schools Student Projections (row that notes average (Change from previous ear only) p. 36 Student Membership Growth Rate ■ Orange County Elementary, Middle, and 37High Schools ■ Chapel Hill - Carrboro Elementary, (Change from previous ear Middle, and High Schools Student/Housing Generation Rate ■ Orange County Elementary, Middle, and 40High Schools ■ Chapel Hill - Carrboro Elementary, No change from previous ear Middle, and High Schools FINANCIAL IMPACT: Current 10-year student growth projections show no future capacity needs for additional schools in the CHCCS District and OCS District. SOCIAL JUSTICE IMPACT: The following Orange County Social Justice Goal is applicable to this item: • GOAL: ENSURE ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY The creation and preservation of infrastructure, policies, programs and funding necessary for residents to provide shelter, food, clothing and medical care for themselves and their dependents. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT: The are no Orange County Environmental Responsibility Goal impacts applicable to this item. RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends the Board approve the 2023 SAPFOTAC Annual Report and certify those aspects of the Report detailed in the summary table above. Attachment 3 3 Council Member Foushee made a motion, seconded by Council Member Romaine that the following resolution be approved: A RESOLUTION ACCEPTING AND COMMENTING ON THE SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE (SAPFOTAC) 2023 REPORT WHEREAS, the Town has had a longstanding interest in the success and excellence of the Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools; and WHEREAS, the Town has participated in the development and implementation of the schools adequate public facilities ordinance provisions since 2003; and WHEREAS, the annual technical advisory committee report has been prepared and distributed for review; and NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the Town Council has received the report. This the 18th day of April 2023. Ayes: Mayor Damon Seils, Council Member Susan Romaine, Council Member Barbara Foushee, Council Member Randee Haven-O'Donnell, Council Member Danny Nowell, Council Member Eliazar Posada, Council Member Sammy Slade. Attachment 1 4 ORANGE COUNTY, NC SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE PREPARED BY A STAFF COMMITTEE: PLANNING DIRECTORS, SCHOOL REPRESENTATIVES, TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE (SAPFOTAC) (PURSUANT TO PROVISIONS OF A MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING ADOPTED IN 2002 & 2003) (ORDINANCES ADOPTED IN JULY 2003) Annual Report 2023 (BASED ON NOVEMBER 2022 DATA CERTIFIED BY THE BOCC ON MAY 169 2023 5 Table of Contents 2023 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary...........................................................................................................................i Introduction......................................................................................................................................................................A Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners............................................................................................vii Planning Directors/School Representatives Technical Advisory Committee..........................................................viii I. Base Memorandum of Understanding........................................................................................................................1 A. Level of Service....................................................................................................................................................1 B. Building Capacity and Membership..................................................................................................................2 Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2021-22)..................................................6 Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2021-22)................................9 Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2022-23)................................................ 12 Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High)(2022-23) .............................. 15 C. Membership Date...............................................................................................................................................18 II. Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System...........................................................19 A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP).........................................................................................................................19 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology...............................................................................................20 Attachment 11.13.1—Student Membership Projection Descriptions...........................................................................................21 Attachment II.13.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2021-22).............................................22 Attachment II.13.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2022-23).............................................26 C. Student Membership Projections.....................................................................................................................30 Attachment II.C.1 —Orange County Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2021-22).......................................33 Attachment II.C.2—Chapel Hill-Carrboro Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2021-22).............................34 Attachment II.C.3—Orange County Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2022-23).......................................35 Attachment II.C.4—Chapel Hill-Carrboro Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2022-23).............................36 D. Student Membership Growth Rate..................................................................................................................37 Attachment II.D.1 —Orange County and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Student Growth Rates (Chart dates from 2022-2032 based on 11/13/21 membership numbers)(2021-22)................................................................38 Attachment II.D.2—Orange County and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Student Growth Rates (Chart dates from 2023-2033 based on 11/15/22 membership numbers)(2022-23)................................................................39 E. Student/Housing Generation Rate.................................................................................................................40 Attachment II.E.1 —Current Student Generation Rates(2015) ................................................................................................42 III. Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process...........................................................43 A. Capital Investment Plan(CIP) (Process 1)......................................................................................................43 Attachment III.A.1 —Process 1 Capital Improvement Plan......................................................................................................44 B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools(CAPS) Update(Process 2).............................................................................................................................................45 Attachment III.B.1 —Process 2 Certificate of Adequate Public Schools(CAPS)Allocation...................................................46 6 2023 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service ....................................................................(No Change)........Pg. 1 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Elementary 105% 105% Middle 107% 107% High 110% 110% B. Building Capacity and Membership ..................................(Change)..............Pg. 2 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Change from Change from Capacity Membership Prior Year Capacity Membership Prior Year Elementary 5664 4657 -81 3361 3059 +36 Middle 2944 2798 -4 2166 1598 -58 High 3975 J 3950 +10 2939 2487 +15 C. Membership Date—November 15.......................................(No Change)........Pg. 17 II. Annual Update to SAPFO System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) ...........................................(No Change)........Pg. 18 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology.................(No Change)........Pg. 19 The average of 3, 5,and 10 year history/cohort survival,linear and arithmetic projection models. C. Student Membership Projections.......................................(Change)..............Pg. 29 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2022-2023 School Year—Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2022-2023 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) Year Projection Made for 2022-2023 Membership Actual 2022 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 Membership Elementary 4657 5504 H847 5498 H841 5367 H710 4708 H51 4582 L75 Middle 2798 2881 H83 2943 H145 2992 H194 2830 H32 2742 L56 High 3950 4028 H78 4037 H87 4085 H135 3915 L35 3908 L42 1 7 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2022-2023 School Year-Orange County Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2022-2023 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual. Year Projection Made for 2022-2023 Membership Actual 2022 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 Membership Elementa 3059 3228 H169 3321 H262 3320 H261 2994 L65 3000 L59 Middle 1598 1682 H84 1710 H112 1713 H115 1611 H13 1622 H24 Hi h 2487 2517 H30 2426 H61 2433 L54 2367 L120 2508 H21 D. Student Membership Growth Rate....................................(Change)..............Pg. 37 Projected Average Annual Growth Rate Over Next 10 Years Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Year Projection 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- Made: 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Elementary 0.56% 0.65% -0.23% -0.88% -0.47% 0.91% 0.84% -0.02% -0.04% 0.26% Middle 0.19% -0.07% -1.50% -2.10% -1.77% 0.28% 0.37% -0.67% -0.72% -0.15% mo 0.16% 0.03% -1.44% -2.15% -2.09% 0.21% 0.21% -0.98% -1.06% 0.98% E. Student/Housing Generation Rate ..................................(No Change)........Pg. 40 SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS (Based on future year Student Membership Projections) CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 82.2%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase,but remain negative over the next 10 years (average--0.47%per year compared to -1.37% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10-year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard(current LOS is 95%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years (average- -1.77% compared to an average of 0.21% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year projection period. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 99.4%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years (average- -2.09% compared to 0.61% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need to expand Carrboro High School from the initial capacity of 800 students to the ultimate capacity of 1,200 students in the 10-year projection period. ii 8 ORANGE COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105%LOS standard(current LOS is 91%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase over the next 10 years (average— 0.26% compared to -0.98% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10-year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard(current LOS is 73.8%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase,but remain negative over the next 10 years (average— -0.15% compared to -0.25% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year projection period. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed 110%LOS standard(current LOS is 84.6%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase over the next 10 years (average— 0.98% compared to 0.83% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for additional High School in the 10-year projection period. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION Pre-K Students In recent years, Pre-K enrollment has been a topic of discussion with both school districts. At this time, SAPFO has not been amended to include Pre-K in the membership and capacity numbers. However, Pre-K numbers and impacts continue to be monitored by the SAPFOTAC. Pre-K students for each district is as follows: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Schools School Year Number of Students Number of Students 2019-20 267 144 2020-21 208 86 2021-22 222 125 2022-23 295 101 Charter and Private Schools Currently, there are two Charter Schools located in the Town of Hillsborough. Charter student membership for these two schools is as follows: School Year Number of Students Number of Students 2017-18 542 326 2018-19 655 (+113) 355 (+29) 2019-20 715 (+60) 365 (+10) 2020-21 747 (+32) 2021-22 751 (+4) 365* 2022-23 777 (+26) *The Expedition School reached full capacity of 365 students in 2019-20 111 9 Charter and private schools are not included as part of the SAPFO Annual Report and, as a result, their membership and capacity numbers are not included in future projections. SAPFO projections are used for projecting only public school capacity/construction needs. However, the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee does monitor charter and private schools and their effect on student enrollment in both school districts. If a charter or private school were to close and a spike were to be realized in school enrollment, the student projections would likely accelerate the need for additional capacity in future years, but likely still within an appropriate time for CIP planning. Charter Schools are also monitored by the Department of Public Instruction (DPI) which provides pupil information, based on data received from Charter Schools located in Orange County, to the County for funding purposes. The County budgeted for charter schools as follows: 100 NO= M11 7Fiscalr Number of Students Number of Students 162 617 2018-19 155 (-7) 769 (+152) 2019-20 169 (+14) 843 (+74) 2020-21 166 (-3) 885 (+42) 2021-22 156 (-10) 919 (+34) 2022-23 205 (+49) 951 +32) Although charter and private schools numbers are not collected for SAPFO purposes, impacts due to enrollment at these schools are accounted for in SAPFO process with the annual reporting of student membership and growth rates contained in the 10-year student projections. Future Residential Development Proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. The Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) test is conducted during the approval process at a certain stage. Once students are enrolled in a school year, through annual reporting of student membership numbers, 10-year student projections can be updated to display future capacity needs in time to efficiently plan for future school capacity/construction requests. The SAPFOTAC continue to monitor and evaluate the demand and growth of residential development throughout Orange County as well as its effect on student membership rates. Below is a list of larger residential projects and the potential number of students from these projects which may have an impact in the short term. Please note, the City of Mebane is not a parry to the SAPFO agreement and therefore does not require that CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools)be issued prior to development approvals. As a result, the expected number of students is based on unit type and bedroom count estimates. Proposed.,Expected Number Residential Project Jurisdiction Total Unit of Students Elementary: 84 Collins Ridge Phase 1 Hillsborough 672 Middle: 45 High: 57 Elementary: 44 Weavers Grove Chapel Hill 235 Middle: 18 High: 20 Elementary: 9 Stagecoach Corner Mebane 35 Middle: 5 High: 6 iv 10 Elementary: 48 Bowman Village/Bowman Place Mebane 177 Middle: 23 High: 30 Elementary: 5 The Townes of Oakwood Square Mebane 88 Middle: 4 High: 5 Elementary: 49 Tupelo Junction I Mebane 181 Middle: 24 High: 31 Elementary: 56 Tupelo Junction II Mebane 207 Middle: 27 High: 35 Elementary: 110 Oakwood Subdivision Mebane 409 Middle: 53 High: 70 School Renovation and Expansion The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) student projections illustrate when the adopted level of service capacities are forecasted to be met and/or exceeded in anticipation of Capital Improvement Plan(CIP)planning and the construction of a new school. Both school districts continue planning efforts to renovate and expand existing facilities to address school capacity needs in a more feasible way. Additional capacity resulting from school renovations and expansions will be added to the projection models in stages, once funding is approved,versus the addition of greater capacity when a new school is constructed and completed. The renovation and expansion to existing facilities may delay construction of new schools further into the future, depending on how and how much capacity is added to the system. Decisions on the timing of reconstruction(i.e. capacity additions) funding would be directly linked to the SAPFO model at the appropriate time. v 11 Orange County, NC School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Introduction The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) and its Memorandum of Understanding are ordinances and agreements, respectively. Supporting documents are anticipated to be dynamic to incorporate the annual changing conditions of membership, capacity and student projections that may affect School Capital Investment Plan(CIP) timing. This formal annual report will be forthcoming to all of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners each year as new information is available. This updated information is used in the schools capital needs process of the Capital Investment Plan(Process 1) and within elements of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) spreadsheet system (Process 2). This report and any comments from the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners will be considered in the first half of each year by the Board of County Commissioners at a regular or special meeting. The various elements of the report are then"certified" and formally considered in the process of the upcoming Capital Investment Plan. The Certificate of Adequate Public Schools system is updated after November 15 when data is received from the school districts with actual membership and pre-certified capacity(i.e. CIP capacity or prior "joint action" capacity changes). The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance and Memorandum of Understanding have dynamic aspects. The derivation of the baseline and update to the variables will continue in the future as a variety of school related issues are fine-tuned by technical and policy groups. The primary facet of this report includes the creation of mathematical projections for student memberships by school levels (Elementary, Middle and High) and by School Districts (Chapel Hill/Carrboro and Orange County). This information is found in Section II, Subsections B, C, D, and E. In summary, this report serves as an update to the dynamic conditions of student membership and school capacity which affect future projected needs considered in Capital Investment Planning. Interested parties may make their comments known to the Board of County Commissioners prior to their review of the report and school CIP completion or ask questions of the SAPFOTAC members. vi 12 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners Annual Report as Outlined in Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Memorandum of Understanding (SAPFO MOU) Section Id Respectfully Submitted to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District SAPFO SAPFO Board of County Commissioners Board of County Commissioners Carrboro Town Council Hillsborough Board of Commissioners Chapel Hill Town Council Chapel Hill-Carrboro School Board Orange County School Board vii 13 Planning Directors/School Representatives Technical Advisory Committee (aka SAPFOTAC) Town of Carrboro Trish McGuire, Planning Director 301 West Main Street Carrboro,NC 27510 Town of Chapel Hill Britany Waddell, Planning and Development Services Director 405 Martin Luther King, Jr. Blvd. Chapel Hill,North Carolina 27514 Town of Hillsborough Margaret Hauth, Assistant Town Manager Shannan Campbell, Planning and Economic Development Manager P.O. Box 429 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Orange County Cy Stober, Planning Director Ashley Moncado, Special Projects Planner Kirk Vaughn, Budget Director 131 W. Margaret Lane P.O. Box 8181 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Orange County School District Monique Felder, Superintendent 200 E. King Street Hillsborough,NC 27278 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Nyah Hamlett, Superintendent 750 Merritt Mill Road Chapel Hill,NC 2751 viii 14 Section I I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—Change can only be effectuated by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) by all SAPFO partners. 2. Definition —Level of Service (LOS) means the amount (level) of students that can be accommodated(serviced) at a certain school system grade group [i.e., Elementary level(K-5), Middle Level (6-8), High School Level (9-12)]. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Elementary Middle High School Elementary Middle High School 105% 107% 110% 105% 107% 110% 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District These standards are acceptable at this time. These standards are acceptable at this time. 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District No change from above standard. No change from above standard. 1 15 Section I B. Building Capacity and Membership 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)will receive requested changes that are CIP related and adopted in the prior year. CIP capacity changes will be updated along with actual membership received in November of each year. Other changes will be sent to a `Joint Action Committee' of the BOCC and Board of Education, as noted in the MOU, who will make recommendations and forward changes (on the specific forms with justification) to the full Board of County Commissioners for review and action. These non- CIP changes would be updated in the upcoming November CAPS system recalibration and included in the SAPFOTAC report. 2. Definition —For purposes of this Memorandum, "building capacity" will be determined by reference to State guidelines and the School District guidelines (consistent with CIP School Construction Guidelines/policies developed by the School District and the Board of County Commissioners) and will be determined by a joint action of the School Board and the Orange County Board of Commissioners. As used herein the term "building capacity" refers to permanent buildings. Mobile classrooms and other temporary student accommodating classroom spaces are not permanent buildings and may not be counted in determining the school districts building capacity. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The original certified capacity for each of the The original certified capacity for each of the schools was certified by the respective schools was certified by the respective superintendent and incorporated in the superintendent and incorporated in the initialization of the CAPS system (Chapel Hill- initialization of the CAPS system (Orange County Carrboro School District April 29, 2002 - Base) School District April 30, 2002 -Base) Capacity changes were made each year as Capacity changes were made each year as follows: follows: 2003: Increase of 619 at Rashkis Elementary. 2003: No net increase in capacity at Elementary 2004: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or level. No changes at Middle School level. High School levels. Increase of 1,000 at Cedar Ridge High School. 2 16 Section I 2005: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2004: No net increase in capacity at Elementary High School levels. level. No changes at Middle or High School 2006: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or levels. High School levels. 2005: An increase incapacity of 100 at 2007: An increase of 800 at the High School Hillsborough Elementary with the completion of level with the opening of Carrboro High School. renovations. 2008: An increase of 323 at the Elementary 2006: An increase in capacity of 700 at the School level due to the opening of Morris Grove Middle School level with the completion of Elementary School and the implementation of Gravelly Hill Middle School and an increase of 15 the 1:21 class size ratio in grades K-3 at the High School level with the temporary 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or location of Partnership Academy Alternative High School levels. School. An increase of 2 at the Elementary level 2010: An increase in capacity of 40 students at due to a change in the capacity calculation for each the High School level with Phoenix Academy grade at each school. High School becoming official high school 2007: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High within the district School levels. 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2008: A decrease of 228 at the Elementary School High School levels. level due to the implementation of the 1:21 class 2012: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or size ratio in grades K-3 and an increase of 25 at High School levels. the High School level with the completion of the 2013: An increase in capacity of 585 students new Partnership Academy Alternative School. due to the opening of Northside Elementary 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School. School levels. 2014: An increase in capacity of 104 students 2010: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High due to the opening of the Culbreth Middle School levels. School addition. 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2015: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or School levels. High School levels. 2012: No changes at Elementary or Middle School 2016: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or levels. A decrease of 119 at High School level as High School levels. a result of a N.C. Department of Public Instruction (DPI) study. 3 17 Section I 2017: A decrease in capacity of 165 students due 2013: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High to the implementation of the 1:20 class size ratio School levels. in grades K-3. 2014: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2018: No changes at Elementary, Middle or School levels. High School levels. 2015: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2019: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or School levels. High School levels. 2016: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2020: Increase of 100 seats at the High School School levels. level due to renovations at Chapel Hill High 2017: A decrease in capacity of 333 students due School. No changes at Elementary or Middle to the implementation of the 1:20 class size ratio in School levels. grades K-3. 2021: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2018: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High High School levels. School levels. 2022: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2019: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High High School levels. School levels. 2020: No changes at the Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 2021: Increase of 500 seats at the High School level due to the Cedar Ridge High School addition. No changes at Elementary or Middle School levels. 2022: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a system to calculate capacity. Any changes year system to calculate capacity. Any changes year to to year will be monitored, reviewed, and year will be monitored, reviewed, and recorded by recorded by the SAPFOTAC on approved forms the SAPFOTAC on approved forms distributed to distributed to SAPFO partners and certified upon SAPFO partners and certified upon approval by approval by the Board of County Commissioners the Board of County Commissioners each year. 4 18 Section I each year. The requested 2022-2023 capacity is The requested 2022-2023 capacity is noted on noted on Attachment I.B.4 Attachment I.B.3 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Accept school capacities at all levels, as reported Accept school capacities at all levels, as reported by CHCCS and shown in Attachment I.B.4. by OCS and shown in Attachment I.B.3. 5 19 Section I Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2021-22) (Page 1 of 3) Schools Change Request Form School District: Orange County Schools SAPFO GAPS Year: November 15, 2021 -November 14,2022 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 15,2021 Eletuciftary Square 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020�2021 2021-2022 justification Mcnibershipr Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested (referenced CapacitylLevel School Fect Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity schoolyear) uf Service River Park 70,812 565 565 502 502 502 557 111.0% Central 52,492 455 455 428 428 428 299 69.9% Efiand 64,316 497 497 455 455 455 482 105.9% Grady Brown 74,016 544 544 490 490 490 411 83.9% Hillsborough 51,106 471 471 420 420 420 422 100.5%e New Mope 100,164 586 586 526 526 526 533 101.3% Pathways 85,282 576 576 540 540 540 319 59.1% Total j T98,1881 3,6941 3,694 3,3611 3,3611 3,361 i 3—,0 2 3 89.9% Special Note(s): 1.For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as Fart of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. 2.During the 2021-2022 school year,the Orange County Schools opened the OCS Online Academy as alternative learning option for students in grades K-12 as a result of the COV1D-19 global pandemic. The membership counts for November 15,2021 include the online students who are still assigned a base physical school within the district as these students have the opportunity to return to their assigned school during the school year. Physical classroom capacities must be reserved in order to ensure these students are able to return to their assigned school without space biritations. The membership counts for these online students as of November 15,2021 are:Total 173 students in Elementary(68),Middle(48),and High(57). Justification, Capacity aijd Me rship Certification: uperinte ent A�at � POCC Chair Date 6 20 Section I Attachment I.B.I. Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,& High) (2021-22) (Page 3 of 3) Schools , (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Oran a County Schools SAPFO GAPS Year.November 15,2021 -November 14,2022 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 15,20121 IN-liddle Square d I I ' 2020-2021 2021-2022 School Feel Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested (referenced Capicity/Leveli A.L. 136,000 740 7411 740 740 740 654 88.4% Orange 107,620 726 726 726 726 726 540 74.4% Gravelly Hill 123,000 700 7110 700 700 700 462 66.0 Total 1366,6201 2,1661 2,1661 2,1661 2,1661 2,166]_ 1,6M 76-5°Im Special Note(s): I.For lite November 15,2002 base year the board accepted lire superinlendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. Thcse capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School C1P or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by[lie BOCC. 2.During tine 2021-2422 school year,the Orange County Schools opened the CICS Online Academy as alternative learning option for students in grades Is`-12 as a result of[lie COV1D-19 global pandemic. The membership counts for Novenber l5,2021 include the online students who are still assigned a base physical school within the district as these students have the opportunity to return to their assigned school during the school year. Physical classroom capacities inust be reserved in order to ensure these students are able to return to their assigned school without space Ihuitations. The membership counts for these online students as of November l5,2021 are:Total 173 students in Elementary(68),Middle(48),and High(57). Justification: Capacity anc�!Vlemberslhip Certification; A�Aariintei d t Date BC] C Chair ate LI 7 21 Section I Attachment I.B.I Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2021-22) (Page 2 of 3) SchoolsAdequate . (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Orange County Schools SAPFO CAPS Year., November 15 2021 -Navember 14 2022 CapacityCapacily and Membershl Submittal date: November 15 2021 I 2021-2022 Illigh'school Feet 17001 Rule 9 Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity school Year) orService Cedar Ridge 256,900 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,500 3 1,065 71.0% Orange 213,509 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,373 98.1% Partnership 6,600 40 40 40 40 40 34 85.0% Total 477,009 2 439 2 439 2,439 2 439 2 939 2 472 84.1% Special Note(s): 1.For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of Elie School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative.Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. 2.During Elie 2021-2022 school year,[lie Orange County Schools opened the OCS Online Academy as alternative learning option for students in,grades K-12 as a result of the COVID-19 global pandemic, The rnenrbership counts for November 15,2021 include the online students who are still assigned a base physical school within the district as these students have the opportunity to return to their assigned school during the school year. Physical classroom capacities must be reserved in order to ensure these students are able to return to their assigned school without space limitations, The membership counts for°these online students as of November 15,2021 are;Total 173 students in Elementary(68),Middle(48),and High(57). Justification: 3.The capacity at Cedar Ridge High School has increased from 1,000 students to 1,500 students due to the opening of a new 50,000 square foot classroom addition.This increases the total square footage from 206,900 to 256,900 square feet. ?Cap�jtty end 1111 �shi Certification- r A/ / } f 5d,erinte e[k Dae i3DCC hair Da e 8 22 Section I Attachment i.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2021-22) (Page 1 of 3) AdequateSchools _ Ordinance Capacity, Membership _ nd Change Request School Dlstrict: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year: November 15 2021 -November 14 2022 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 15 2021 a ry Square 20117-2018 2019-2019 2019-2020 2020-20211 2021-2022 Membership Percentage of Elcincrit. Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested jumification (referenced Capacity/Level Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity school),car) of Service Carrboro 60,832 533 518 518 518 518 494 95.4% Ephesus 66,952 448 436 436 436 436341 78.2% Estes Mills 56,299 527 516 516 516 516 353 68.4% FP Graham 66,689 538 522 522 522 522 507 97.1% Glenwood 50,764 423 412 412 412 412 422 102.4% McDougle 98,000 564 548 548 548 548 462 84.3% Morris Grove 90,221 585 568 568 568 568 461 81.2% Northside 99,500 585 568 568 568 568 380 66.9% Rashkis 95,729 585 568 568 568 568 419 73.8% Scroggs 90,980 575 558 558 558' 558 395 70.8% seawell 52,896 466 450 450 450 450 504 112.0% Total 1 828,8621 5,829 S 664 5 664 5 664 5 664 4 738 83.7% Special Note(s): 1.For the November 15,2002 base year the.Board accepted the superuilendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CLP or(2)an arnended version of this form that is certified by the 13OCC. Justification: Capacity and Membe7�ertlficatllon: 41), 1,13512021 nde Date BOCC Chair 9 23 Section I Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2021-22) (Page 2 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Ordinance Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 15 2021 -November 14 2022 CapacitV and Membership Submittal Date: November 15 2021 I2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 Membership Percentage of Square Requested Requested Requested Requested justirleallon Werenced Capacily/Level Middle School Feet Requested FGolnote 0 (1 Capacity Capacily capacily Capacity Capacity sClIool year) of Sers ICU Culbreth 122,467 774 774 774 774 774 668 86% McDougle 136,221 732 732 732 732732 754 103% Phillips 109,498 706, 706 706 706 706 661 94% Smith 128,764 732 732 732 732 732 719 98% Total 1 496,9501 2,9441 2,9441 2,9441 2,9441 2,9441 2 802 95.2% Special Note(s): 1. For the November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School l-icilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will Icmain effective until changed by(l)the School C1P or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the ROCC. Justification: Capacity and Membe ip Certification: f 11 15 2021 a� S intende Date BOC Chair Date 24 Section I Attachment LB.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2021-22 (Page 3 of 3) Schools Capacity, Change Request Form School'District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 15, 2021 -November 14,2422 Capacity and Membership Submittal hate: November 15 2021 Square 2017-2018 2018-2019 20119-2020 2020-202 1 2021-2022 justification Nlernhership Percentage ofHigh School Fed Requested Requested Requested Requesled Requested Capacily Capacity Capacity Capadl% Capacity school year) orservice Carrboro 148,423 800 800 800 840 800 849 106%m Chapel Hill 241,111 1,520 1,520 1,520 1,620 1,624 1,�1�.-) 94% East Chapel Hill 259,869 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,484 98% Phoenix Acad. 5,207 40 40 40 40 40 92 230% Total - 654,2101 3,87,5! 3,8751 3,8751 3,9751 3,9751 3,940 99.1% Special Note(s): 1. For the November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-cerlilied capacities as part offhc School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School C1P or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: At Phoenix Academy, 57 of the 90 students are in our Virtual Learning Academy; only 33 students attend in person; 33140 is 82.5%. Capacity and Member ip Certification: < l I1 15 2021 '� 1 S tnlende t Date 707C Chair D to I1 25 Section I Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary, Middle, & High) (2022-23) (Page 1 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form SER351 is ric : Orange County,7533IN ear:Novemuer o em er apace y ana vilernDersnip SuOrnITINI Me NovemDer 13, 2022 EleinefiUll-v Square 2018-2019 2019-2020 i P2022-2023 J1151ification Membership Percentage of School Feet Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested Foofilote.1 (referenced Capacity/Level Capaci(y Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity scliool year) of Service River Park 70,8121 565 565 502 502 502 561 111.8% Central 52,492 455 455 428 428 428 296 88.2% Efland Cheeks 64,316 497 497 455 455 455 522 114.7% Cnady Brown 74,016 544 544 490 490 490 415 84.7% Hillsborough 51,106 471 471 420 420 420 428 101.9% New Hope 100,164 586 586 526 526 526 528 100.4% Pathways 85,282 576 576 540 540 540 309 57.2% Total 1 498,188 3,694 3,694 3,361 3,361 3,36t, 3 059 91.0% Special Note(s): 1.For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School C1P or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: CapacRy and Membership Certification: / QUI%9Gl � Nov 23 2022 Superintendent Date LCC Chai Date 12 26 Section I Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2022-23) (Page 2 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Orange County Schools SAPFO CAPS Year.November 15 2022-November 14 2023 CapacityCapacily and Membership Submittal Date: November 15 2022. -schoolSquare 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 justificafloll Membership Percelptagge of x1iddle School Feet Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested Foo(note (referenced CapacityfLevel Capacity Capacity calxIcity Capacity Capacity A.L.Stanback 136,000 740 740 740 740 740 644 87.0% Orange Middle 107,620 726 726 726 7226 726 524 72.2% Gravelly Bill 123,000 700 700 700 700 700 430 61.4% Total 1366,6201 2,1661 2,1661 2166 2,1661 2,1661 1 98 73.8% Special Nate(s): 1,For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Deport. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: Capacity and Membership Certification: gai -Fmpv Nau23,2(322 f'crslgie.eldakll_ 23.2r22n_:L I EST.) L Superintendent Date B C Ch . Date 13 27 Section I Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2022-23) (Page 3 of 3) Schools Adequate r • + • Capacity, Membership Change Request Form School District: orange County Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 15,2022- November 14, 2023 Capacity and Membership Submittal Data November 15, 2022 Square 2018-2019 i 020 i i2022-2023 Justification Nlembership Percentage of High School Feet Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested Footnote A (referenced CapacitylLevel Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity school Cedar Ridge 256,900 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,500 1,500 * 1,111 74.1% Orange 213,509 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,342 95.9% Partnership 6,600 40 40 40 40 40 34 85.0% Total 477,009 2,439 2,439' 2,439 2,939 2,939 2,487 84.6% Spa tial Note(s):1.For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the S chool CIP or(2)an amended version of this form thatis certified by the BOCC. Justification: 2021-22 addition to Cedar Ridge added 50,000 square feet and 500 seats. Capacity and Membership Certification: zgI &A ymez- Nov23,2022 M-TgV,r.lde,(N-23,=7 03:21 ESr) Superintendent Date EPCC Ch ' Date 14 28 Section 1 Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2022-23) (Page 1 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form -1 School District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 15,2022-November 14,2023 Capacity and Membership Submittal Rate: November 15,2022 Elenivitlari Sq re SCIT0111 Feel ('.mb.l a 60,812 $33 518 518 518 518 484 93.4% F1111cmis 66.9;2 44K 336 436 436 436 355 81,4% I?stcs IIslly 56,249 527 516 516 516 516 332 64,3% FP Grahrun 66.689 538 52.2 522 522 $22 513 98.3% Lilenwaod 511.764 423 412 412 412 412 4311 104.4% McDougle 'm,micl 564 548 548 548, 548 474 86,5% Morris Grove 911,221 985 568 568 56K', 568427 75.2% Northside 91,S0U 585 568 568 568 $68 373 65,7% ttashkis 94.729 984 968 568 56K 568 421 74.1% seroggs 91Y,980 575 550 558 "' K $58 379 6719fo 3eawell 5:.896 466 450 450 450 490 469 104.2°/ Total 1 82R.K62 5,929 5,6641 5,664 5,6641 5,664 4,657 821 Special Note(s): I Fm the Wnxcmhct I2002 haat prtkr the Huard acrchl.al the suprciii lander 1-ccauiied caluciIicas Pant W Ilie Srhnnl Facililtc, 1s,1.I'uace re+riew and SFIt1i Planners and Sahoid ReprewwoIive'l'eehnicalALIvisory L'oruotinee R.eparl. 'These caliacIIics aiIF Ieiiww effecti4c until ch.,n and 1,i 1 11 the Sciacol('I1't,r(2)im amcnd,ed versintt of this.form[Prat is certified by the 13(1UC, Justification: Capac t nd a er ertificat on: L2w'4!"n0 S63tevdent Date B'P6C Chair Date 15 29 Section I Attachment LB.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2022-23) (Page 2 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Chapel l i II-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:✓Wovowbur la.2022-Noveniber 14,2023 Capacity and Membership Submittal Data', November 15,2022 III I K-!0 19 21121-24122 2lQ2.20!3 PL'I-CVIIhNgt-01 C'ulbreth 122.467 774 774 774 774 774 658 86% McDaugic 136.221 732 732 732 732 732 756 103°! Phillips Iu9,4LrR 706 706 706 706 706 614 97% S1n1111 i2ii,764 732 732 732 732 732 770 105% Tolal 4-1(050 2,9441 L9441 2,944 2,9441 2,9441 2,7911 95.0% 5peciat Noteis): I fill the November 15.21102 base tear fu:lloarll auceptc11111L'ti11111'rllllcSi4lrlit-ecrrllleLl capaci le!ati pan Ill Ow Scholl 1'acrhtreti l:iA Pair,•rL inr I"Ilene capacilicx teAl renlaiil clfecMe wi it r1urIVv,1 I1v(I I the School C'11,or 121,111 anlcndrd vetswri of this Imm thai is certified b% the ltt 1C'C. Justification: Cap,ac,jty and M m sf'p Certification: 01 l< 1�� g ftperintend it Date BQOC Chair Dale 16 30 Section I Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2022-23) (Page 3 of 3) SchoolsM (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro Oily Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:NoYunlbef 15,2422-November 14,2023 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: Noventber t5,2022 Square 211IN-2019 2014J-211211 20211-211-11 21)11-11122 2022-2412.1 .11i'liliewflon ItIvININ't�hill Carboni 148,023 800 800 800 8[10 1100 864 1108% ('11apcl Hill 241,111 1,520 1,521) 1,620 1,620 1,520 1,601 99% Last chapel Hill 259,8611 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,444 96% Phomi.a Acad. 5,2117 40 411 40 40 40 39 98% 'total I tA4,210 3,878 3,8751 3,Y751 3,97A i 3,9751 3 9s 31 99,40 Special Nate(s): 1 For Ittc Novemhct I�,21102 Iris pest the BC:nd accepted the Nuperinterrdenbccnitied capacities as part o Circ School 1-acililic:, Task force rcthe,,N and'.0113 Planner.,utd SL 1111411 R+_prr,rnl.iux c Iceimical A&kory t l+rutiWee Report. Thcsc capaeilie.tvsll remain cll'crlive aniiI clianged by I I 1 the tiehuol UIP or I21 an amended t'rraciun 01'this 601 Ill that is certified ity lite 1317C-C Justification: Capaci d 11✓emb ertlfication: 1� I� ze 5uperintendent date OC Chair pale. 17 31 Section H C.Membership Date 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—Change can be effectuated only by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)by all SAPFO partners. The Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)may advise if a change in date would improve the reporting or timeliness of the report. 2. Definition —The date at which student membership is calculated. This date is updated each year and also serves as the basis for projections along with the history from previous years. "For purposes of this Memorandum, the term "school membership" means the actual number of students attending school as of November 15 of each year. The figure is determined by considering the number of students enrolled(i.e. registered, regardless of whether a student is no longer attending school) and making adjustments for withdrawals, dropouts, deaths, retentions and promotions. Students who are merely absent from class on the date membership is determined as a result of sickness or some other temporary reason are included in school membership figures. Each year the School District shall transmit its school membership to the parties to this agreement no later than five (5) school days after November 15. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District November 15 of each year November 15 of each year 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: This will be analyzed in the future years to determine if it is an exemplary date. 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District No change at this time. No change at this time. 18 32 Section II II. Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) after review of the CIP requests from the School Districts. Action regarding CIP programs usually occurs during the BOCC budget Public Hearing process in the winter and spring of each year. The development of the CIP considers the conditions noted in the SAPFOTAC report released in the same CIP development year including LOS (level of service), capacity, and membership projections. 2. Definition —The process and resultant program to determine school needs and provide funding for new school facilities through a variety of funding mechanisms. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Not Applicable Not Applicable 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: The MOU outlines a system of implementing the SAPFO, including issuing Certificates of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS)to new development if capacity is available. The Requests for CAPS will be evaluated using the most recently adopted Capital Investment Plan. A new Capital Investment Plan is currently under development for approval prior to June 30, 2023. 5. Recommendation: Not subject to staff review 19 33 Section II B. Student Membership Projection Methodology 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—This section is reviewed and recommended by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)to the BOCC for change, if necessary. 2. Definition —The method(s)by which student memberships are calculated for future years to determine total membership at each combined school level (Elementary, Middle, and High School)which take into consideration historical membership totals at a specific time (November 15) in the school year. These methods are also known as 'models'. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Presently, the average of five models is being used: namely 3, 5, and 10-year history/cohort survival methods, Orange County Planning Department Linear Wave, and Tischler Linear methods. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Performance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model is in its prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity shortfalls so the annual Capital Investment Plan(CIP)updates can respond proactively with siting, design, and construction. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. Attachment II.B.3 shows the performance of the models for the 2022-23 school year from the prior year projection. S. Recommendation: Analysis on the accuracy of the results is showing that some models have better results in one district while others have better results in the other district. The historic growth rate is recorded by the models, but projected future growth is more difficult to accurately quantify. In all areas of the county,proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. The system is updated in November of each year, becoming part of the historical projection base. 20 34 STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION 1 CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS � O Tischler Linear(OCS& Mathematical formula;straight line projection �((c*t')*x)+b Historical growth is reflected in projected growth ti CHCCS) y=projected population;c=historical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years BYM+(BYI+5(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects t0-year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=yearstudent membership increment OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o u increase in BYI of 5 every other year reflects (OCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year; IDSL=/o of total increases in housing growth; reflects buildout membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year constraints member by school level SYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10•year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=yearstudent membership increment OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o c decrease in BY1 of 15 until school year 2010-2011 (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year; /DSL=/o of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year buildout constraints member by school level Kn k n.,+(kn.,*0.01) �S Mathematical formula that computes the average nT1 advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(£ G„I g,j)13 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate forthe 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=3 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same r CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n_1(a) percentage of students in each grade level kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year Cd andfor historical growth rates membershi other than kindergarten); revious rade's membershi a=avera a ~' P( 9=p g P: 9 I advancement rate;b=projected membership C CD Kn=kn-i+(km,*0.01) Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 .r advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(£ Gn!gn.1)15 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the CD 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same 5 CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n,,(a) percentage of students in each grade level C kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year y and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average advancement rate;b=projected membership b K Kn=kn.1+(kmi*0.01) A Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each a=(E G n 19,1)110 Assumes a I%annual growth rate for the 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n_10 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same d CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed bldg n-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level y kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year andlar historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average advancement rate;b=projected membership 35 Section II Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2021-22) (Page 1 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2021-2022 School Year November 13, 2021 11/13/20 2021 Report 11/15/21 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2020 -Nov 2021 2020-21 2021-22 2021-22 Elementary 3047 3023 -24 Model Projection is T 3036 H13 OCP 3128 H105 10C 2968 L55 5C 2966 L57 3C 2960 L63 Avera a 3011 L12 11/13/20 11/15/21 Middle 1654 1656 +2 Model Projection is T 1648 L 8 OCP 1683 H27 10C 1630 L 26 5C 1613 L43 3C 1598 L 58 Avera a 1634 L 22 11/13/20 11/15/21 High 2381 2472 +91 Model Projection is T 2372 L100 OCP 2306 L166 10C 2387 L85 5C 2372 L100 3C 2389 L83 Average 2365 L107 Totals 11/13/20 11/15/21 Elementary 3047 3023 Middle 1654 1656 High 2381 2472 Total 7082 7151 +69 Model Projection is T 7056 L95 OCP 7117 L34 10C 6985 L166 5C 6951 L200 3C 6947 L204 Average 7010 L141 H means High L means Low 22 36 Section II Attachment 11.13.2 —Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2021-22) (Page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2021-2022 School Year (November 13, 2021) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 63 students below to 105 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 12 students below actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 24 students between November 15, 2020 and November 14, 2021. Middle School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 58 students below to 27 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 22 students below actual membership. • The membership actually increase by 2 students between November 15, 2020 and November 14, 2021. High School Level • Projections were all low, ranging from 166 students to 83 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 107 students below actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 91 students between November 15, 2020 and November 14, 2021. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were all low, ranging from 34 to 204 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 141 students below actual membership. • The membership increased in total by 69 students, which is the sum of-24 at Elementary, +2 at Middle, and +91 at High. 23 Section II Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2021-22) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District (Page 3 of 4) School Membership 2021-2022 School Year November 13, 2021 11/14/20 2021 Report 11/15/21 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2020 - Nov 2021 2020-21 2021-22 2021-22 Elementary 4893 4738 - 155 Model Projection is T 4885 H147 OCP 5085 H347 10C 4732 L6 5C 4695 L43 3C 4644 L94 Average 4808 H70 11/14/20 11/15/21 Middle 2917 2802 -115 Model Projection is T 2912 H110 OCP 2890 H88 10C 2860 H58 5C 2859 H57 3C 2846 H44 Avera a 2874 H72 11/14/20 11/15/21 High 3932 3940 + 8 Model Projection is T 3926 L14 OCP 3796 L144 10C 3925 L15 5C 3939 L1 3C 3933 L7 Avera a 3904 L36 Totals 11/13/20 11/15/21 Elementary 4893 4738 Middle 2917 2802 High 3932 3940 Total 11,742 11,480 -262 Model Projection is T 11,723 H243 OCP 11,771 H291 10C 11,517 H37 5C 11,493 H13 3C 11,423 H57 Average 11,586 H106 H means High L means Low 24 38 Section II Attachment II.13.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2021-22) (Page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2021-2022 School Year (November 13, 2021) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT 3C Elementary School Level • Projections were all mixed ranging from 94 students below to 347 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 70 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 155 students between November 15, 2020and November 14, 2021. Middle School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 44 students to 110 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 72 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 115 students between November 15, 2020 and November 14, 2021. High School Level • Projections were all low, ranging from 1 students to 144 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 36 students below actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 8 students between November 15, 2020 and November 14, 2021. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 13 students to 291 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 106 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 262 students, which is the sum of-155 at Elementary, -115 at Middle, and +8 at High. 25 39 Section II Attachment ILB.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2022-23) (Page 1 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2022-2023 School Year November 15, 2022 11/15/21 2022 Report 11/15/22 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2021 -Nov 2022 2021-22 2022-23 2022-23 Elementary 3023 3059 +36 Model Projection is T 3012 L47 OCP 3015 L44 10C 2997 L62 5C 2995 L64 3C 2983 L76 Avera a 3000 L59 11/15/21 11/15/22 Middle 1656 1598 -58 Model Projection is T 1650 H52 OCP 1652 H54 10C 1613 H15 5C 1598 0 3C 1597 L1 Avera a 1622 H24 11/15/21 11/15/22 High 2472 2487 +15 Model Projection is T 2436 L51 OCP 2469 L18 10C 2526 H39 5C 2527 H40 3C 2554 H67 Average 2508 H21 Totals 11/15121 11/15/22 Elementary 3023 3059 Middle 1656 1598 High 2472 2487 Total 7151 7144 -7 Model Projection is T 7098 L46 OCP 7136 L8 10C 7136 L8 5C 7120 L24 3C 7134 L10 Average 7130 L14 H means High L means Low 26 40 Section II Attachment 11.13.3 —Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2022-23) (Page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2022-2023 School Year (November 15, 2022) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were low, ranging from 44 students to 76 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 59 students below actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 36 students between November 15, 2021 and November 14, 2022. Middle School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 1 student below to 54 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 24 students above actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 58 students between November 15, 2021 and November 14, 2022. High School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 51 students below to 67 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 21 students above actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 15 students between November 15, 2021 and November 14, 2022. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were all low, ranging from 8 to 46 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 14 students below actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 7 students, which is the sum of +36 at Elementary, -58 at Middle, and +15 at High. 27 41 Section II Attachment ILB.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2022-23) (Page 3 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membershi 2022-2023 School Year November 15, 2022 11/15/21 2022 Report 11/15/22 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2021 - Nov 2022 2021-22 2022-23 2022-23 Elementary 4738 4657 -81 Model Projection is T 4710 H53 OCP 4619 L38 10C 4557 L100 5C 4526 L131 3C 4496 L161 Avera a 4582 L75 11115/21 11/15/22 Middle 2802 2798 -4 Model Projection is T 2786 L12 OCP 2753 L45 10C 2736 L62 5C 2729 L69 3C 2709 L89 Average 2742 L56 11/15/21 11/15/22 High 3940 3950 + 10 Model Projection is T 3917 L33 OCP 3840 L110 10C 3918 L32 5C 3940 L10 3C 3924 L26 Avera a 3908 L42 Totals 11/15/21 11/15/22 Elementary 4738 4657 Middle 2802 2798 High 3940 3950 Total 11,480 11,405 -75 Model Projection is T 11,413 H8 OCP 11,212 L193 10C 11,211 L194 5C 11,195 L210 3C 11,129 L276 Average 11,232 L173 H means High L means Low 28 42 Section II Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2022-23) (Page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2022-2023 School Year (November 15, 2022) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C Elementary School Level • Projections were mixed ranging from 161 students below to 53 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 75 students below the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 81 students between November 15, 2021 and November 14, 2022. Middle School Level • Projections were low, ranging from 12 students to 89 students above below membership. On average, the projections were 56 students below the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 4 students between November 15, 2021 and November 14, 2022. High School Level • Projections were low, ranging from 10 students to 110 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 42 students below actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 10 students between November 15, 2021 and November 14, 2022. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were mixed, ranging from 276 students below to 8 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 173 students below the actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 75 students, which is the sum of-81 at Elementary, -4 at Middle, and +10 at High. 29 43 Section II C. Student Membership Projections 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report certifications. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition —The result of the average of the five student projection models represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level (Elementary, Middle, and High) for each school district (Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District and Orange County School District). 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The 5 model average discussed in Section II.B The 5 model average discussed in Section (Student Projection Methodology). See II.B (Student Projection Methodology). See Attachment II.C.4 Attachment II.C.3 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show a decrease and negative growth rate for all three school levels for both districts in the 10-year projection period. Attachment II.C.3 and Attachment ILC.4 show year-by-year percent growth and projected level of service (LOS). The projection models were updated using current(November 15, 2022) memberships. Ten years of student membership were projected thereafter. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Elementary The previous year(2021-22)projections for November 2022 at this level were underestimated by 75 students. The actual membership decreased by 81 students. Over the previous ten years, this level has experienced a decrease in eight out of the following nine school years, including this year. Growth rates during the past ten years have ranged from -8.76%to+1.45%. The district's eleventh elementary school,Northside Elementary School, opened in 2013. Capacity was decreased in 2017-18 due to changes in class size averages for kindergarten to third grade by the 30 44 Section H North Carolina State Legislature. The need for an additional elementary school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. Middle The previous year(2021-22)projections for November 2022 for this level were underestimated by 56 students. The actual membership decreased by 4 students. Over the previous ten years, this level has shown varying increases and decreases. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from-4.17%to +3.78%. Capacity was increased in 2014-15 with the opening of the Culbreth Middle School science wing. The need for an additional middle school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. High School The previous year (2021-22) projections for November 2022 for this level were underestimated by 42 students. The actual membership increased by 10 students. Over the previous ten years, this level has experienced decreases in membership in only four of the last ten years. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from-0.90 to +4.39%. The need for additional high school capacity at Carrboro High School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. Orange County School District Elementary The previous year(2021-22)projections for November 2022 at this level were underestimated by 59 students. Actual membership increased by 36 students. Over the previous ten years, this level experienced varying increases and decreases. . Growth rates during this period have ranged from -5.72%to +1.81%. Capacity was decreased in 2017-18 due to changes in class size averages for kindergarten to third grade by the North Carolina State Legislature. The need for an additional Elementary School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. Middle The previous year(2021-22)projections for November 2022 for this level were overestimated by 24 students. The actual membership decreased by 58 students. Over the previous ten years, this level has experienced varying increases and decreases. . Growth rates during this period have ranged from-6.18%to +3.74%. The need for an additional Middle School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. High School The previous year(2021-22)projections for November 2022 for this level were overestimated by 21 students. The actual membership increased by 15 students. This school level has experienced 31 45 Section II decreases in five out of the ten previous school years. Growth rates during this period ranged from -3.93% to 4.58%. In 2012-13 student membership increased by 32 while capacity decreased by 119 at Orange County High School as a result of a N.C. Department of Public Instruction(DPI) study. The need for an additional high school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. 5. Recommendation: Use statistics as noted in 3 above 32 ®�®®�ksm��a���rre�.r�s■�� err®r��®®®a�r�rr�er�r�rories� oe�s�®ins®® OEM OEM aeseo�oa®® mmmmmlmm�®m®mom®MsmrTllq�mwTnqm=m= ®m®MM�Mt baa■�®�����s-r�sa:' MEMM No! Ild, -- �������Ommm��mQ'��mm�m • ®®�®®®�®®®tea®®®® ®®®�®® cu..—[.c. --��,.Z—��rr�r.:.=.—rrr-��r----�..��islif� ���SJ��'�']S:Itl�l��]ii�i9s3i1=�'O�l��:]I�t.�7�iil��l/amu�J . . _ . . . .. .. ., ��■R�f71�:11�f����11 ���f�f*f�71■■�*a��i�l0��*f ®�1�1�7��I�I��l����l���I�I���®�1I ,._. ���m���oommm000m000mm ���©o����©oma I�:7E�7E�1©�1���7E�1E�1�7���E��+7�7�7E�1�7 ®®®®s®®®®® _ ®®®—sm®® ®®®o®® ���.��-n��4m������m������e�nn���n������������� 50 Section II D. Student Membership Growth Rate 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) each year and referred to the BOCC for annual report certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition —The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections resulting from the average of the five models represented by 10-year numerical membership projections by school level for each school district. This does not represent the year-by- year growth rate that may be positive or negative, but rather the average of the annual anticipated growth rates over the next 10 years. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District See Attachment ILD.2 See Attachment ILD.2 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The membership figures and percentage growth The membership figures and percentage on the attachments show continued growth at growth on the attachments show each school level within the system. Projected continued growth at each school level Average Annual Growth Rate over next ten within the system. Projected Average years: Annual Growth Rate over next ten years: School Year Projection Made School Year Projection Made 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- Level 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Level 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Elementary 0.56% 0.65% -0.23% -0.88% -0.47% Elementary 0.91% 0.84% -0.02% -0.04% 0.26% Middle 0.19% -0.07% -1.50% -2.10% -1.77% Middle 0.28% 0.37% -0.67% -0.72% -0.15% High 1 0.16% 1 0.03% 1 -1.44% -2.15% -2.09% High 0.21% 0.21% 1 -0.98% 1 -1.06% 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Use statistics as noted. Use statistics as noted. 37 51 2021-2022 Orange County Student Projections Elementary School Year 2021-2022 2022- 2023- 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- actual 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Membership 3,023 3,000 2,982 2,948 2,926 2,934 2,949 2,962 2,977 2,994 3,011 �0 Average %Increase -0.74% -0.62% -1.14% -0.74% 0.26% 0.51% 0.45% 0.52% 0.57% 0.560/6 a Middle y 2021-2022 2022- 2023- 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- SchoolYear actual 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 01 Membership 1,656 1,622 1,610 1,599 1,592 1,575 1,541 1,522 1,526 1,533 1,539 Average %Increase -2.04% -0.74% -0.71% -0.39% -1.11% -2.12% -1.23% 0.23% 0.47% 0.41% p¢i fD High School 2021-2022 2022- 2023- 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- o School Year actual 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Membership 2,472 2,508 2 466 2,438 2,358 2,315 2 321 2297 2 272 2 254 2 222 c -Average %Increase 1.46% -1.69% -1.14% -3.25% -1.85% 0.27% -1.05% -1.07% -0.80% -1.439/. N 70Q Chapel Hill/Carrboro Student Projections w p J Elementary School Year 2021-2022 2022- 2023- 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- y `� actual 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 ¢, Membership 4 738 4,582 4,505 4 411 4 321 4 271 4 281 4 292 4 304 4 322 4 333 O Average %Increase -3.30% -1.66% -2.10% -2.03% -1.15% 0.24% 0.25% 0.29% 0.40% 0.27-- Middle .27%Middle w 2021-2022 2022- 2023- 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- N �+ School Year actual 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Membership 2,802 2,742 2,654 2,581 2,516 2,484 2,385 2,296 2,246 2,256 2,264ft A Average %Increase -2.13% -3.22% -2.77% -2.48% -1.29% -3.98% -3.75% -2.15% 0.42% 0.38% 5 Cr High School y o School Year 2021-2022 2022- 2023- 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- o actual 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Membership 3,940 3,908 3,860 3,801 3,723 3,586 3,515 3,439 3,338 3,258 3,169 � C Average %Increase -0.82% -1.22% -1.53% -2.05% -3.69% -1.97% -2.17% -2.93% -2.40% -2.740/. fDCDR O N � 52 2022-2023 Orange County Student Projections Elementary School Year 2022-2023 2023- 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2032- actual 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 -Membership 3,059 3,063 3,044 3,025 3,037 3,051 3,068 3,085 3,105 3,121 3,138 Average%Increase 0.13% -0.64% -0.60% 0.38% 0.48% 0.55% 0.57% 0.64% 0.52% 0.55% CD Middle School Year 2022-2023 2023- 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2032- actual 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Membership 1,598 1,588 1,578 1,584 1,584 1,565 1,544 1,551 1,556 1,564 1,574 1 p -Average%Increase -0.60% -0.65% 0.38% -0.02% -1.20% -1.33% 0.44% 0.31% 0.52% 0.64% p tv � High School C 2022-2023 2023- 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2032- "' N School Year actual 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 p I Membership 2,487 2,446 2 420 2,352 2,291 2,299 2,293 2,278 2,287 2,268 2,254 Average%Increase -1.63% -1.08% -2.79% -2.62% 0.33% -0.24% -0.64% 0.38% -0.84% 1 -0.62% p N� w � Chapel Hill/Carrboro Student Projections o n Elementarymow, School Year 2022-2023 2023- 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2032- actual 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 CDC Membership 4,657 4,581 4,495 4,410 4,370 4,374 4,384 4,394 4,411 4,426 4,439 G. ¢ Average%Increase -1.63% -1.87% -1.90% -0.89% 0.08% 0.24% 0.22% 0.39% 0.33% 0.30% p � n Middle AD 2022-2023 2023- 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2032- ""' co School Year actual 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 -Membership 2,798 2,710 2,631 2,577 2,538 2,452 2,360 2,319 2,322 2,331 2,338 N x -Average%Increase -3.16% -2.89% -2.06% -1.54% -3.37% -3.76% -1.74% 0.13% 0.39% 0.32% ►'�{ i to C� High School z7 School Year 2022-2023 2023- 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2032- actual 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 c -Membership 3,950 3,914 3,862 3,797 3,676 3,596 3,524 3,430 3,356 3,273 3,197 Average%Increase -0.92% -1.33% -1.66% -3.19% -2.19% -1.99% -2.68% -2.14% -2.48% -2.31 C f C K � N N- � N O N4 �r 53 Section II E. Student / Housing Generation Rate 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition — Student generation rate refers to the number of public school students per housing unit constructed in each school district, as defined in the Student Generation Rate Study completed by TisherBise on October 28, 2014. Housing units include single-family detached, single family attached/duplex, multifamily, and manufactured homes. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District See Attachment II.E.1 See Attachment II.E.1 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: At the January 2014 SAPFOTAC meeting, members discussed the increased number of students generated in both school districts from new development,particularly multifamily housing. The SAPFOTAC recommended further evaluation of the adopted Student Generation Rates and the impacts the number of bedrooms a particular housing type may have on student generation rates. As a result, Orange County entered into a contract with TischlerBise to update the student generation rate analysis. The new student generation rates were approved on May 19, 2015 and are shown in Attachment II.E.1. New rates from the 2014 Student Generation Rates for Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District Report are based on an inventory of recently built units from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013. It should be noted that students are generated from new housing as well as from existing housing where new families have moved in. The CAPS system estimates new development impacts and associated student generation, but it is important to understand that student increases are a composite of both of these factors. This effect can be dramatic and can vary greatly between areas and districts where either new 40 54 Section H housing is dominant or new families move into a large inventory of existing housing stock. 5. Recommendation: No change at this time. 41 55 o' ti TischlerBise Student Generation Rates — 2014 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Schools 0-3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5+ Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Detached 0.61 0.84 1.13 0.84 0-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Attached 0.27 0.42 0.38 Multifamily/Other 0.11 0.47 0.18 Manufactured Home 0.268 0.86 0.78 Weight Average for Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District 0.49 c� Orange County Schools 0-3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5+ Bedrooms Weighted Average .~ Single-Family Detached 0.35 0.57 0.57 0.44 CDK 0-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Attached 0.07 0.17 0.15 rA Multifamily/Other 0.08 0.67 0.17CD Manufactured Home 0.67 0.47 0.52 CD Weight Average for Orange County School District 0.37 CD w Source:Student Generation Rates for Orange County School District and Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District,TischlerBise,October 28,2014 O Revised N1ay 7,2015 A7 y N N O 56 Section II III. Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process Abstract: The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance process has two distinct components: A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (Process 1) Timeframe: In November of each year, Student Membership and Building Capacity is transmitted from the school districts to the Orange County Board of Commissioners for consideration and approval and used in the following years CIP (e.g. November 15, 2022 membership numbers used to develop a CIP to be considered for adoption in June 2023). Process Framework 1. SAPFOTAC projects future student membership from historical data, current membership and hypothetical growth rates from established methodologies. 2. School Districts and BOCC compare projections to existing capacity and proposed Capital Investment Plan. 3. SAPFOTAC forwards data and projections to all SAPFO partners. 4. School Districts develop Capital Investment Plan Needs Assessment during this process 5. The Capital Investment Plan work sessions and Public Hearings are conducted by the BOCC in the spring of each year. 6. The adoption of CIP that sets forth monies and timeframe for school construction (future capacity)by BOCC. 43 57 Section III School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process 1 - Capital Investment Plannin (CIP� Projection Method1 CIP Approval CAPS System (Historical Membership (Proposed new construction (Certificate of Adequate plus Hypothetical Growth i.e. school capacity added by Public Schools) Rate) number of seats and year) Actual Adjustments (Current year actual replaces y past year membership projections) 'Historical Membership is a product of students generated from: (1)pre-existing/approved undeveloped lots where new housing is c built, (2) existing housing stock with new families/children, and (3) newly approved housing development (in the future this component will be known as CAPS approved development). n The only part of the CAPS System (i.e., computer spreadsheet subdivision tracking) that receives data from the Process I CIP a includes the actual membership (November 15 of preceding CIP year) and new school capacity amount (seats) in a specific year pursuant to the CIP. 0 C 44 58 Section III B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Update (Process 2) Timeframe: The CAPS system is updated approximately November 15 of each year when the school districts report actual membership and `pre-certified' capacity, whether it is CIP associated or prior `joint action' agreement. `Joint action' determinations of changes in capacity due to State rules or other non-construction related items are anticipated to be done prior to the November 15 capacity and membership reporting date. This update may reflect the Board of County Commissioners action on the earlier year Capital Investment Plan (CIP) as it affects capacity and addition of new actual fall membership. The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) stays in effect until the following year —(e.g.: November 15, 2005 to November 14, 2006). New development is originally logged for a certain year. As the CAPS system is updated, each CAPS projection year is `absorbed' by the actual estimate of a given year. Later year CAPS projections of the same development remain in the future year CAPS system accordingly. For example, if a 50-lot subdivision is issued a CAPS, 15 lots may be assigned to "Year 1," 10 lots to "Year 2," 10 lots to "Year 3," 10 lots to "Year 4," and 5 lots to "Year 5." When"Year 1" is updated, the students generated from the 15 lots are absorbed by the actual estimate. The students generated in"Years 2, 3, 4, and 5" are held in the CAPS system and added to the appropriate year when the CAPS system is updated. The City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO and does not require that CAPS be issued prior to approving development activities. Increasing development within this area of the county has the potential to encumber a significant portion of the available capacity within the Orange County School District. Although the SAPFO system is not formally regulated in Mebane, staff monitors development activity and when students enter the school system, their enrollment is calculated and used in future school projection needs. Please note that the two processes (CIP and CAPS) are on separate, but parallel tracks. However,the CIP does create a crossover of capacity information between the two processes. For example, the SAPFO system for both school districts that will be established/initiated/ 45 59 Section III certified each year in November and is based on prior year created and/or planned CIP capacity and current school year membership. The SAPFOTAC report including new current year membership and projections are to be used for upcoming CIP development as noted in Process 1. CIP Process 1 (for CIP 2023 - 2033) November 2021 —June 2022 (using 2022 SAPFOTAC Report) SAPFO CAPS Process 2 (for SAPFO System 2023 —2024) November 2022 -November 2023 46 60 School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process 2 - Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Allocation 2023 CAPS system is effective November 15, 2022 through November 14, 2023. The system is updated with new membership, CIP capacity changes, and any other BOCC/School District joint action approved capacity prior to November 15, 2022. This information is received within 5 days of November 15 and posted within the next 15 days. This CAPS system recalibration is retroactive to November 15, 2022. CAPS Allocation System CAPS Systeme 1. Certified Capacity AC = SC — (ADM+ND 1+ND2+. . .) b 2 LOS Capacity o 3. Actual Membership y 4. Year Start Available Capacity N 5. Ongoing Current Available Capacity(includes available n capacity decreases from approved CAPS development by year) 6. CAPS approved development AC>_0 - Issue CAPS a. Total units b. Single Familyl AC<0 - Defer CAPS to later date C. Other Housings a 'Student Generation Rates from CAPS housing type create future membership estimate. Please note that this CAPS membership future estimate is different than the projection based on historical data and projection models used in the CIP process 1. This estimate only captures new development impact,which is the component that the SAPFO can regulate. 0 'AC—Available Capacity- Starts at Annual Update Capacity and reduces as CAPS approved development is entered into the system. 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