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Agenda 05-24-22; 8-g - Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance – Approval and Certification of 2022 Report
1 ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: May 24, 2022 Action Agenda Item No. 8-g SUBJECT: Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance — Approval and Certification of 2022 Report DEPARTMENT: Planning and Inspections ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: 1. Town of Carrboro Resolution Ashley Moncado, Planner II, 919-245-2589 2. 2022 SAPFOTAC Annual Report 3. 11 x17 Copies of Student Projection Charts PURPOSE: To approve and certify the 2022 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) Report. BACKGROUND: At the December 14, 2021 Board of County Commissioners' Business meeting, the Board approved the November 15, 2021 actual membership and capacity numbers for both Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS) and Orange County Schools (OCS). Additional approvals/certifications, as outlined in the table below, are required by the SAPFO partners MOUs (Memoranda of Understanding). At the March 15, 2022 BOCC Business meeting, the Board received for transmittal the draft 2022 SAPFOTAC Report. A letter and the Executive Summary of the Report were sent to all SAPFO partners advising them of the availability of the draft Report and inviting comments. Comments were requested for submission by April 18, 2022. The Carrboro Town Council received the draft 2022 SAPFOTAC Report at its April 12 meeting and approved the Resolution contained in Attachment 1. The Chapel Hill Town Council received the draft report on April 27, and the Town of Hillsborough Board of Commissioners received the report at its April 11 meeting. No comments were transmitted to the County. The exact pages of the 2022 SAPFOTAC Report that the BOCC will be acknowledging and certifying are listed below. The context (i.e. definitions and standards) of the various SAPFO elements precedes the data to be certified and is within the full report. Page in Element SAPFOTAC Certification to be made by BOCC Report Building Capacity with Capital Building capacity and current year Investment Plan (CIP) changes 12 through 17 membership for OCS and CHCCS were approved at the December 15, 2020 (Change from previous ear meeting. Student Membership Projection Certification that the average of 5 models Methodology 21 will be used, as noted in #3 on page 20 2 No change from previous ear Student Membership Projections ■ Orange County Elementary, Middle, and High Schools Student Projections (row that notes average only) (p. 36) 36 and 37 ■ Chapel Hill - Carrboro Elementary, Middle, and High Schools Student Projections (row that notes average (Change from previous ear only) p. 37 Student Membership Growth Rate ■ Orange County Elementary, Middle, and 38 High Schools ■ Chapel Hill - Carrboro Elementary, (Change from previous ear Middle, and High Schools Student/Housing Generation Rate ■ Orange County Elementary, Middle, and 41High Schools ■ Chapel Hill - Carrboro Elementary, No change from previous ear Middle, and High Schools COVID Impacts Both school districts are still experiencing impacts from COVID due to a decrease in student membership as a result of students being withdrawn and enrolled in private schools with in- person learning or homeschooled. At this time, staff believes these are temporary impacts and a majority of these students will return when in-person learning commences on a stable basis. However, the loss of students has impacted the SAPFO 10-year projections by decreasing future student growth rates and service levels and pushing building capacity needs beyond the 10-year projection period. Recognizing concerns with these projections not being constructive in planning for the future or when students return to the classroom, Orange County Planning staff drafted hypothetical 2021-22 student membership and grade level numbers in order to generate alternative 10-year student projections. Additional information can be found on page iii of the Executive Summary. FINANCIAL IMPACT: Current 10-year student growth projections show no future capacity needs for additional schools in the CHCCS District and OCS District. SOCIAL JUSTICE IMPACT: The following Orange County Social Justice Goal is applicable to this item: • GOAL: ENSURE ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY The creation and preservation of infrastructure, policies, programs and funding necessary for residents to provide shelter, food, clothing and medical care for themselves and their dependents. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT: There are no Orange County Environmental Responsibility Goal impacts applicable to this item. RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends the Board approve the 2022 SAPFOTAC Annual Report and certify those aspects of the Report detailed in the summary table above. Attachment 1 3 A motion was made by Council Member Haven-O'Donnell,seconded by Council Member Nowell that the following resolution be approved. A RESOLUTION ACCEPTING THE SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE (SAPFOTAC)2022 REPORT WHEREAS,the Town has had a longstanding interest in the success and excellence of the Chapel Hill—Carrboro City Schools; and WHEREAS,the Town has participated in the development and implementation of the schools adequate public facilities ordinance provisions since 2003; and WHEREAS,the annual technical advisory committee report has been prepared and distributed for review. NOW,THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED that the Town Council of the Town of Carrboro accepts the report. NOW,THEREFORE BE IT ALSO RESOLVED that the Town Council of the Town of Carrboro wishes to add the following comments given at the April 12,2022 Town Council meeting. These comments include: 1) The need for reserving elementary school site at the Greene Tract because projected demand for facilities is longer than 10 years out,2) School system awareness of the Town of Carrboro's Climate Action Plans,how they relate to transportation choices, and which might encourage re-districting so families could be within school walk zones, and 3)The Pre-K program and whether students should be included in the S APFO membership and what discussions have occurred in the past. This the 12th day of April in the year 2022. The motion passed by the following vote: Ayes: Mayor Pro Tem Susan Romaine, Council Member Barbara Foushee, Council Member Randee Haven-O'Donnell, Council Member Danny Nowell, Council Member Sammy Slade Attachment 2 4 ORANGE COUNTY, NC SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE PREPARED BY A STAFF COMMITTEE: PLANNING DIRECTORS, SCHOOL REPRESENTATIVES, TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE (SAPFOTAC) (PURSUANT TO PROVISIONS OF A MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING ADOPTED IN 2002 & 2003) (ORDINANCES ADOPTED IN JULY 2003) Annual Report 2022 (BASED ON NOVEMBER 2021 DATA) CERTIFIED BY THE BOCC ON MAY 249 2022 5 Table of Contents 2022 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary..........................................................................................................................i Introduction...................................................................................................................................................................viii Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners.............................................................................................ix Planning Directors/School Representatives Technical Advisory Committee..............................................................x I. Base Memorandum of Understanding........................................................................................................................1 A. Level of Service....................................................................................................................................................1 B. Building Capacity and Membership..................................................................................................................2 Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2020-21)..................................................6 Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2020-21) ................................9 Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2021-22)................................................ 12 Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2021-22) .............................. 15 C. Membership Date...............................................................................................................................................18 II. Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System...........................................................19 A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP).........................................................................................................................19 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology...............................................................................................20 Attachment II.B.I—Student Membership Projection Descriptions...........................................................................................21 Attachment II.13.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2020-21).............................................22 Attachment II.13.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2021-22).............................................26 C. Student Membership Projections.....................................................................................................................30 Attachment II.C.1 —Orange County Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2020-21).......................................34 Attachment ILC.2—Chapel Hill-Carrboro Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2020-21).............................35 Attachment ILC.3—Orange County Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2021-22).......................................36 Attachment II.C.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2021-22).............................37 D. Student Membership Growth Rate..................................................................................................................38 Attachment ILD.1 —Orange County and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Student Growth Rates (Chart dates from 2021-2031 based on 11/13/20 membership numbers)(2020-21) ................................................................39 Attachment II.D.2 Orange County and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Student Growth Rates (Chart dates from 2022-2032 based on 11/15/21 membership numbers)(2021-22) ................................................................40 E. Student/Housing Generation Rate.................................................................................................................41 Attachment II.E.1 —Current Student Generation Rates(2015)................................................................................................43 III. Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process...........................................................44 A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (Process 1)......................................................................................................44 Attachment III.A.1 —Process 1 Capital Improvement Plan......................................................................................................45 B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Update (Process 2).............................................................................................................................................46 Attachment III.B.1 Process 2 Certificate of Adequate Public Schools(CAPS)Allocation...................................................47 6 2022 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service ....................................................................(No Change)........Pg. 1 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Elementary 105% 105% Middle 107% 107% High 110% 110% B. Building Capacity and Membership..................................(Change)..............Pg. 2 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Change from Change from Capacity Membership Prior Year Capacity Membership Prior Year Elementary 5664 4738 155) 3361 3023 24 Middle 2944 2802 (115) 2166 1656 2 High 3975 3940 8 2939 2472 91 C. Membership Date—November 15.......................................(No Change)........Pg. 17 II. Annual Update to SAPFO System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) ...........................................(No Change)........Pg. 18 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology.................(No Change)........Pg. 19 The average of 3, 5,and 10 year history/cohort survival,linear and arithmetic projection models. C. Student Membership Projections.......................................(Change)..............Pg. 29 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2021-2022 School Year—Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2021-2022 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) Year Projection Made for 2021-2022 Membership Actual 2021 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 Membership Elementary 4738 5795 H1057 5488 H750 5474 H736 5357 H619 4808 H70 Middle 2802 2999 H197 2924 H122 2961 H159 3016 H214 2847 H45 High 3940 3897 L43 3934 L6 3981 H41 4021 H81 3904 L36 1 7 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2021-2022 School Year-Orange County Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2021-2022 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) Year Projection Made for 2021-2022 Membership Actual 2021 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 Membership Elementary 3023 3283 H260 3198 H175 3278 H239 3281 H258 3011 L12 Middle 1656 1748 H92 1709 H53 1731 H75 1719 H63 1634 L22 High 2472 2559 H87 2474 H2 2388 L84 2415 L57 2365 L107 D. Student Membership Growth Rate....................................(Change)..............Pg. 37 Projected Average Annual Growth Rate Over Next 10 Years Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Year Projection 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- Made: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Elementary 0.36% 0.56% 0.65% -0.23% -0.88% 0.58% 0.91% 0.84% -0.02% -0.04% Middle 0.21% 0.19% -0.07% -1.50% -2.10% 0.13% 0.28% 0.37% -0.67% -0.72% High 1 0% 0.16% 0.03% -1.44% -2.15% j -0.10% 0.21% 0.21% -0.98% -1.06% E. Student/Housing Generation Rate ..................................(No Change)........Pg. 40 SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS (Based on future year Student Membership Projections) CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 83.7%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years (average - -.88%per year compared to -0.74% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10-year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard(current LOS is 95.2%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years (average - -2.10% compared to an average of 0.72% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year projection period. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 99.1%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years (average - -2.15% compared to 0.79% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need to expand Carrboro High School from the initial capacity of 800 students to the ultimate capacity of 1,200 students in the 10-year projection period. ii 8 ORANGE COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105%LOS standard (current LOS is 89.9%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase,but remain negative over the next 10 years (average—-0.04% compared to -0.71% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the I0-year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard (current LOS is 76.5%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years (average — -0.72% compared to -0.23% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year projection period. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 84.1%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years (average— -1.06% compared to 0.72% over the past 10 years). C. Capacity has increased by 500 seats due to the Cedar Ridge High School addition. Projections are not showing a need for additional High School in the 10-year projection period. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION COVID Impacts Both school districts are still experiencing impacts from COVID due to a decrease in student membership as a result of students being withdrawn and enrolled in private schools with in- person learning or homeschooled. At this time, staff believes these are temporary impacts and a majority of these students will return when in-person learning commences on a stable basis. However, the loss of students has impacted the SAPFO 10-year projections by decreasing future student growth rates and service levels and pushing building capacity needs far beyond the 10- year projection period. Recognizing concerns with these projections not being constructive in planning for the future or when students return to the classroom, Orange County Planning staff drafted hypothetical 2021-2022 student membership and grade level numbers in order to generate alternative 10-year student projections. Hypothetical student membership and grade level numbers were drafted based on SAPFO data from previous reports. Similar to last year's report, student membership and growth rates were based on the certified 2020 SAPFO Report. The purpose of this was to draft informal projections which may depict future student growth rates and service levels without the impacts from COVID. Staff believes the 10-year projections will correct themselves when students return to the classroom and student membership numbers increase to regular levels. Due to the requirements in the SAPFO MOUs, these projections cannot be certified, but may be documented in the annual report. Similar to the 2021-2022 SAPFO projections, the alternative projections utilize the same methodology contained in the SAPFO MOUs. The four alternative projections were based on the following scenarios and data: ■ Scenario 1: Draft 10-year projections using 2019 SAPFO student membership and grade level numbers for this school year. ■ Scenario 2: Draft 10-year projections using the average student membership and grade level numbers from 2015-2019 iii 9 ■ Scenario 3: Draft 10-year projections using the average Student Growth Rates from 2010- 2020, as certified in the 2020 SAPFO Report. ■ Scenario 4: Draft 10-year projections using the average Student Growth Rates for 2021- 2031, as certified in the 2020 SAPFO Report Based on the four alternative projections, no capacity needs were identified in the 10-year projection period for both districts. Outcomes (i.e. projected student membership, service levels, and student growth rates) of the alternative projections are similar to 10-year projections contained in previous SAPFO reports. The following tables provide a summary of the alternative projections for the 2031-32 school year including average student membership numbers and service levels. In addition, average student membership numbers and service levels from the 2021-22 SAPFO projections are provided for comparison purposes. The 2021-22 SAPFO projection sheets, contained on pages 36 and 37 of this report, are certified annually by the Orange County Board of Commissioners. Spreadsheets of the alternative projections can be provided upon request. • -_ . • • • eau• .,. SAPFO Level AT OS) and Building Capacity Elerne tary Middle High Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at 100% LOS 105% LOS 100% LOS 107% LOS 100% LOS 110% LOS 5,664 5,947 2,944 3,150 3,975 4,373 2031-32 School Year Elerne tary Middle High Average Level of Average Level of Average Level of Membership Service Membership Service Membership Service Scenario 1 5,655 99.8% 3,038 103.2% 3,932 98.9% Scenario 2 5,453 96.3% 2,904 98.6% 3,868 97.3% Scenario 3 5,678 100.2% 3,108 105.6% 4,097 103.1% Scenario 4 5,718 1 101.0% 1 3,103 1 105.4% 1 4,061 1 102.2% 2021-22 4,333 76.5% 2,264 76.9% 3,169 79.7% Projections* 'T SAPFO Level of Service (LOS) and Building Capacity Elerne tary Middle High Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at 100% LOS 105% LOS 100% LOS 107% LOS 100% LOS 110% LOS 3,361 3,529 2,166 2,318 2,939 3,233 2031-32 School Year Elerne tary Middle High Average Level of Average Level of Average Level of Membership Service Membership Service Membership Service Scenario 1 3,454 102.8% 1,812 83.7% 2,440 83.0% Scenario 2 3,165 94.2% 1,665 76.9% 2,313 78.7% Scenario 3 3,453 102.7% 1,837 84.8% 2,532 86.2% Scenario 4 3,516 1 104.6% 1,860 1 85.9% 1 2,556 87.0% 2021-22 3,011 89.6% 1,539 71.1% 2,222 75.6% Projections* iv 10 Pre-K Students In recent years, Pre-K enrollment has been a topic of discussion with both school districts. At this time, SAPFO has not been amended to include Pre-K in the membership and capacity numbers. Pre-K enrollment has been included in discussions regarding changes in class size and school capacity. However, Pre-K numbers and impacts continue to be monitored by the SAPFOTAC. In addition,the annual report will begin to report Pre-K membership beginning with the 2019-20 school year, prior to COVID impacts. Pre-K students for each district is as follows: Chapel bo City Schools Schools School Year Number of Students Number of Students 2019-20 267 144 2020-21 208 86 2021-22 222 125 Charter and Private Schools Currently, there are two Charter Schools located in the Town of Hillsborough. Charter student membership for these two schools is as follows: School Year Number of Students Number of Students 2017-18 542 326 2018-19 655 (+113) 355 (+29) 2019-20 715 (+60) 365 (+10) 2020-21 747 (+32) 365* 2021-22 751 +4 365* *The Ex edition School reached,full capacity of 365 students last school year Charter and private schools are not included as part of the SAPFO Annual Report and, as a result, their membership and capacity numbers are not included in future projections. SAPFO projections are used for projecting only public school capacity/construction needs. However, the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee does monitor charter and private schools and their effect on student enrollment in both school districts. If a charter or private school were to close and a spike were to be realized in school enrollment, the student projections would likely accelerate the need for additional capacity in future years, but likely still within an appropriate time for CIP planning. Charter Schools are also monitored by the Department of Public Instruction(DPI) which provides pupil information,based on data received from Charter Schools located in Orange County,to the County for funding purposes. The County budgeted for charter schools as follows: Jkfhap• Hill-Carrboro Orange County Schools o 11 Fiscal Year Number of Students Number of Students 2017-18 162 617 2018-19 155 (-7) 769 (+152) 2019-20 169 (+14) 843 (+74) 2020-21 166 (-3) 885 (+42) 2021-22 156 (-10) 919 (+34) v 11 Although charter and private schools numbers are not collected for SAPFO purposes, impacts due to enrollment at these schools are accounted for in SAPFO process with the annual reporting of student membership and growth rates contained in the 10-year student projections. Future Residential Development Proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. The Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) test is conducted during the approval process at a certain stage. Once students are enrolled in a school year, through annual reporting of student membership numbers, 10-year student projections can be updated to display future capacity needs in time to efficiently plan for future school capacity/construction requests. The SAPFOTAC continue to monitor and evaluate the demand and growth of residential development throughout Orange County as well as its effect on student membership rates. Below is a list of larger residential projects and the potential number of students from these projects which may have an impact in the short term. Please note, the City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO agreement and therefore does not require that CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools)be issued prior to development approvals. As a result, the expected number of students is based on unit type and bedroom count estimates. Residential Total Units of Students Elementary: 84 Collins Ridge Phase 1 Hillsborough 672 Middle: 45 High: 57 Elementary: 44 Weavers Grove Chapel Hill 235 Middle: 18 High: 20 Elementary: 34 The Meadows Mebane 167 Middle: 18 High: 23 Elementary: 9 Stagecoach Corner Mebane 35 Middle: 5 High: 6 Elementary: 48 Bowman Village/Bowman Place Mebane 177 Middle: 23 High: 30 Elementary: 5 The Townes of Oakwood Square Mebane 88 Middle: 4 High: 5 Northeast Village (Havenstone Elementary: 46 Phase 1 & 2) Mebane 169 Middle: 22 High: 29 Elementary: 49 Tupelo Junction Mebane 181 Middle: 24 High: 31 vi 12 School Renovation and Expansion The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) student projections illustrate when the adopted level of service capacities are forecasted to be met and/or exceeded in anticipation of CIP planning and the construction of a new school. Both school districts continue planning efforts to renovate and expand existing facilities to address school capacity needs in a more feasible way. Additional capacity resulting from school renovations and expansions will be added to the projection models in stages, once funding is approved, versus the addition of greater capacity when a new school is constructed and completed. The renovation and expansion to existing facilities may delay construction of new schools further into the future, depending on how and how much capacity is added to the system. Decisions on the timing of reconstruction (i.e. capacity additions) funding would be directly linked to the SAPFO model at the appropriate time. vii 13 Orange County, NC School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Introduction The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) and its Memorandum of Understanding are ordinances and agreements, respectively. Supporting documents are anticipated to be dynamic to incorporate the annual changing conditions of membership, capacity and student projections that may affect School Capital Investment Plan (CIP)timing. This formal annual report will be forthcoming to all of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners each year as new information is available. This updated information is used in the schools capital needs process of the Capital Investment Plan (Process 1) and within elements of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) spreadsheet system (Process 2). This report and any comments from the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners will be considered in the first half of each year by the Board of County Commissioners at a regular or special meeting. The various elements of the report are then"certified" and formally considered in the process of the upcoming Capital Investment Plan. The Certificate of Adequate Public Schools system is updated after November 15 when data is received from the school districts with actual membership and pre-certified capacity(i.e. CIP capacity or prior "joint action" capacity changes). The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance and Memorandum of Understanding have dynamic aspects. The derivation of the baseline and update to the variables will continue in the future as a variety of school related issues are fine-tuned by technical and policy groups. The primary facet of this report includes the creation of mathematical projections for student memberships by school levels (Elementary, Middle and High) and by School Districts (Chapel Hill/Carrboro and Orange County). This information is found in Section 11, Subsections B, C, D, and E. In summary, this report serves as an update to the dynamic conditions of student membership and school capacity which affect future projected needs considered in Capital Investment Planning. Interested parties may make their comments known to the Board of County Commissioners prior to their review of the report and school CIP completion or ask questions of the SAPFOTAC members. viii 14 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners Annual Report as Outlined in Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Memorandum of Understanding (SAPFO MOU) Section ld Respectfully Submitted to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District SAPFO SAPFO Board of County Commissioners Board of County Commissioners Carrboro Town Council Hillsborough Board of Commissioners Chapel Hill Town Council Chapel Hill-Carrboro School Board Orange County School Board ix 15 Planning Directors/School Representatives Technical Advisory Committee (aka SAPFOTAC) Town of Carrboro Trish McGuire, Planning Director 301 West Main Street Carrboro,NC 27510 Town of Chapel Hill Colleen R. Willger, Planning and Development Services Director 405 Martin Luther King, Jr. Blvd. Chapel Hill,North Carolina 27514 Town of Hillsborough Margaret Hauth, Assistant Town Manager P.O. Box 429 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Orange County Craig Benedict, Planning Director Ashley Moncado, Special Projects Planner Gary Donaldson, Director of Finance and Administrative Services 131 W. Margaret Lane P.O. Box 8181 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Orange County School District Monique Felder, Superintendent 200 E. King Street Hillsborough,NC 27278 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Nyah Hamlett, Superintendent 750 Merritt Mill Road Chapel Hill,NC 2751 x 16 Section I I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—Change can only be effectuated by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) by all SAPFO partners. 2. Definition —Level of Service (LOS) means the amount (level) of students that can be accommodated (serviced) at a certain school system grade group [i.e., Elementary level (K-5), Middle Level (6-8), High School Level (9-12)]. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Elementary Middle High School Elementary Middle High School 105% 107% 110% 105% 107% 110% 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District These standards are acceptable at this time. These standards are acceptable at this time. 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District No change from above standard. No change from above standard. 1 17 Section I B. Building Capacity and Membership 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) will receive requested changes that are CIP related and adopted in the prior year. CIP capacity changes will be updated along with actual membership received in November of each year. Other changes will be sent to a `Joint Action Committee' of the BOCC and Board of Education, as noted in the MOU, who will make recommendations and forward changes (on the specific forms with justification) to the full Board of County Commissioners for review and action. These non- CIP changes would be updated in the upcoming November CAPS system recalibration and included in the SAPFOTAC report. 2. Definition —For purposes of this Memorandum, "building capacity" will be determined by reference to State guidelines and the School District guidelines (consistent with CIP School Construction Guidelines/policies developed by the School District and the Board of County Commissioners) and will be determined by a joint action of the School Board and the Orange County Board of Commissioners. As used herein the term "building capacity" refers to permanent buildings. Mobile classrooms and other temporary student accommodating classroom spaces are not permanent buildings and may not be counted in determining the school districts building capacity. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The original certified capacity for each of the The original certified capacity for each of the schools was certified by the respective schools was certified by the respective superintendent and incorporated in the superintendent and incorporated in the initialization of the CAPS system(Chapel Hill- initialization of the CAPS system(Orange County Carrboro School District April 29, 2002 - Base) School District April 30, 2002 - Base) Capacity changes were made each year as Capacity changes were made each year as follows: follows: 2003: Increase of 619 at Rashkis Elementary. 2003: No net increase in capacity at Elementary 2004: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or level. No changes at Middle School level. High School levels. Increase of 1,000 at Cedar Ridge High School. 2 18 Section I 2005: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2004: No net increase in capacity at Elementary High School levels. level. No changes at Middle or High School 2006: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or levels. High School levels. 2005: An increase incapacity of 100 at 2007: An increase of 800 at the High School Hillsborough Elementary with the completion of level with the opening of Carrboro High School. renovations. 2008: An increase of 323 at the Elementary 2006: An increase in capacity of 700 at the School level due to the opening of Morris Grove Middle School level with the completion of Elementary School and the implementation of Gravelly Hill Middle School and an increase of 15 the 1:21 class size ratio in grades K-3 at the High School level with the temporary 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or location of Partnership Academy Alternative High School levels. School. An increase of 2 at the Elementary level 2010: An increase in capacity of 40 students at due to a change in the capacity calculation for each the High School level with Phoenix Academy grade at each school. High School becoming official high school 2007: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High within the district School levels. 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2008: A decrease of 228 at the Elementary School High School levels. level due to the implementation of the 1:21 class 2012: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or size ratio in grades K-3 and an increase of 25 at High School levels. the High School level with the completion of the 2013: An increase in capacity of 585 students new Partnership Academy Alternative School. due to the opening of Northside Elementary 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School. School levels. 2014: An increase in capacity of 104 students 2010: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High due to the opening of the Culbreth Middle School levels. School addition. 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2015: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or School levels. High School levels. 2012: No changes at Elementary or Middle School 2016: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or levels. A decrease of 119 at High School level as High School levels. a result of a N.C. Department of Public Instruction (DPI) study. 3 19 Section I 2017: A decrease in capacity of 165 students due 2013: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High to the implementation of the 1:20 class size ratio School levels. in grades K-3. 2014: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2018: No changes at Elementary, Middle or School levels. High School levels. 2015: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2019: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or School levels. High School levels. 2016: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2020: Increase of 100 seats at the High School School levels. level due to renovations at Chapel Hill High 2017: A decrease in capacity of 333 students due School. No changes at Elementary or Middle to the implementation of the 1:20 class size ratio in School levels. grades K-3. 2021: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2018: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High High School levels. School levels. 2019: No changes at Elementary,Middle, or High School levels. 2020: No changes at the Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 2021: Increase of 500 seats at the High School level due to the Cedar Ridge High School addition. No changes at Elementary or Middle School levels. 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a system to calculate capacity. Any changes year system to calculate capacity. Any changes year to to year will be monitored, reviewed, and year will be monitored, reviewed, and recorded by recorded by the SAPFOTAC on approved forms the SAPFOTAC on approved forms distributed to distributed to SAPFO partners and certified upon SAPFO partners and certified upon approval by approval by the Board of County Commissioners the Board of County Commissioners each year. each year. The requested 2021-2022 capacity is The requested 2021-2022 capacity is noted on noted on Attachment I.B.4 Attachment I.B.3 4 20 Section I 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Accept school capacities at all levels, as reported Accept school capacities at all levels, as reported by CHCCS and shown in Attachment I.B.4. by OCS and shown in Attachment I.B.3. 5 21 Section I Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2020-21) (Page 1 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, MeChange Request Form mbership and District: Orange County Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 13 2020-November 14 2021 lCapacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 13,2020 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 i Elementary Square Requested Requested e .d Requested RequestedCapacity/Lev School Feet Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity F001110le school year) of Service Cameron Park 70,812 565 565 502 502 502 ,567 112.9% Central 52,492 455 455 428 428 428 268 62.6% Efland Cheeks 64,316 497 497 455 455 455 499 109.7% Grady Brown 74,016 544 544 490 490 490 405 82.7%A Hillsborough 51,106 471 471 420 420 420 427 1.01.7% New Hope 100,164 586 586 526 526 526 533 101.3% Pathways 85,282 576 575 540 540 540 348 64.4% Total 498,188 3,69 3,6941 3,3611 3,3611 3,3611 3,047 90.7% Special Note(s): 1.For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative'Pechnical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School C1P or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justifications; Capacity and Mennbe q' certification: c L �-°—1 Su erintenden Date BOCG Chair ' Date 6 22 Section I Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2020-21) (Page 2 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Orange County Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 13 2020-November 14 2021 lCapacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 13 2020 Middle Square 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 justirication Membership Percen(age ofSchool Feet Requested Requested Reques(ed Requested 1 Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity school year) oF Sen-ice A.L.Stanback 136,000 740 740 740 7411 740 627 84.7% C.W.Stanford 107,620 726 726 726 726 726 583 80.3% Gravelly Hill 123,000 700 700 700 700 7011 444 63.4% Total I 366,620i 2 166 2,1661 2,1661 2,1661 2,1661 1.6541 76.4°16 Special Note(s): 1.For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: Capaci!y and Membership Certification- 19i uperint den Date BOC Chaff Date 7 23 Section I Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2020-21) (Page 3 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities • (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: orange County Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 13 2020-November 14 2021 Icapacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 13 2020 Square 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 justification Iligh School Fect Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested r.'Ootnole 0 (referenced Capacity/Level Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity school year) of Service Cedar Ridge 206,900 1,000 1,00() 1,000 1,000 1,11110 1,035 103.5°L° Orange 213,509 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,317 94.1% Partnership 6,600 40 40 40 40 40 29 72.5% Total 427,0091 2,4391 2,4391 2,4391 2,4391 2,439 2 3&7 97.6% Special Note(s): 1.For the Novennber 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-certifted capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CW or(2)an amended version of this Form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: Capacity and Membership Certification: perinte ent Date BOCC Chair Date 8 24 Section I Attachment LB.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2020-21) (Page 1 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance tSAPFO) Capacity, Membership and L Change Request Form School District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year: November 13,2020-November 14,2021 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 13,2020 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 Niel]lberdlip Vermitage of School Fee Foolnoto 9 Carrboro 60,832 533 518 518 518 518* 478 92.37. Ephesus 66,952 448 436 436 436 436 342 78.4% Estes Hills 56,299, 527 516 516 516 516 380 73.6% FP Graham 66,689538 522 522 522 522 564 108.0% Glenwood 50,764 423 412 412 412 412 433 105.1% McDougle 98,000 564 548 548 548 548 488 89.1% Morris Grove 90,221 585 568 568 568 568 492 86.6% Northside 99,500 585 568 568 568 568 402 70.8% Rashkis 95,729 585 568 568 568 568 437 76.9% Scroggs 90,980 575 558 558 558 558 474 84.9% Scawell 52,896 466 450 450 450 450 1 403 89.6% Total 828,8621 5 829 5,664 5,6641 5,664 5=66=4 1 4.893 86.4% Special Note(s):I.For the November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification.Waiting for the Schools Joint Action Committee reductions for class size changes. Capacity and Membership Certification: 11/15/2020 Superintendent Date BOCC Chair Date 9 25 Section I Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2020-21) (Page 2 of 3) Schools Change Request Form School District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year.November 13,2020-November 14,2021 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 13,2020 2016-2017 2017-2018 2019-2019 2019-2020 2020-21121 Membership Percentage lit' Callacit), C:lpaeitl Capacity Capacity Capacit) em.) of Service Culbreth 122,467 774 774 774 774 774 737 95% McDougle 136,221 732 732 732 732 732 751 103% Phillips 109,498 706 706 706 706 706 694 98% Smith 128,764 732 732 732 732 732 735 100% Total I 496,950 2,9441 2i9A4L2,94412,9441 2,9441 2,9171 99.1% Special Note(s): 1. For the November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planmers and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: Capacity and Membership Certification: T - 1111512020 _ Superintendent pate BOCC Chair Date 10 26 Section I Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2020-21 (Page 3 of 3) Schools Change Request Form School is ric : Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Year:November 13,2020-November 14,2021 apact and Membership Submittal 5—are—Ilovember 13.2020 2016-2017 21117-20IN 2038-21119 2019-2020 2020-202 1 PercenIaLcol" Carrboro 148,023 800 800 Soo Soo 800 838 105% Chapel Hill 278,508 1,520 1,520 1,520 1,520 1,620 * 1,529 94% East Chapel Hill 259,869 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,515 11,516 100% Phoenix Acad. 5,207 40 40 40 40 40 49 123% Total 691 607 3,M! 3,8751 3,8751 3,8751 3,9751 3,9321 98.9% Special Note(s): 1. For the November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version orthis fomt that is certified by tate BOCC. Justification: 100 seats added to CHHS for the 2020-21 school year.Total square feet 278,508. Capacity and Membership Certification: 11/15/2020 �A, � j f Superintendent pate B CC Chair Date 11 27 Section I Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2021-22) (Page 1 of 3) Attachment 1 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Orange County Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 15,2021-November 14,2022 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 15,2021 2017-2018 20118-2019 2019-20211 21120-2021 2021-2022 Nienibership Percentage of Elementary Square Requested Requested Requested Requested Reques tcd Ju'Stirication (referenced Cnpacit- School Feet capacily Capacity Capacity Capacity C.paui ly Foolnole 4 school year) 411,Sul-vice River Park 70,812 565 565 502 502 502 557 199.0% Central 52,492 455 455 428 428 428 299 69.9%n Efland 64,316 497 497 455 455 455 482 105.9% Grady Drown 74,016 544 544 490 490 490 411 83.9% Hillsborough 51,106 471 471 420 420 420 422 100.5% New Hope 100,164 586 586 526 526 526 533 101.3% Pathways 85,282 576 576 540 540 540 319 59.1%u Total 498,188 3 G94 3,694 3,361 3,361 3,361 3 023 89.9% Special Note(s): 1.For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superinleudent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. 2.During the 2021-2022 school year,the Orange County Schools opened the OCS Online Academy as alternative learning option for students in grades K-12 as a result of the COVID-19 global pandemic. The membership counts for November 15,2021 include the online students who are still assigned a base physical school within the district as these students have file opportunity to return to their assigned school during the school year. Physical classroom capacities must be reserved in order to ensure these students are able to return to their assigned school without space limitations. The membership counts for these online students as of November 15,2021 are:Total 173 students in Elementary(68),Middle(48),and High(57). Justification: Capacity atkd_Mernhership Certification: uperinte eat Det BOCC Chair Date 12 28 Section I Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2021-22) (Page 2 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Orange County Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 15,2021-November 14,2022 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 15,2021 2017-2018 I2020-2*21 2021-N22 Membership Percentage 01, Middle Square justificati School Feet Requested Requested Requested Requvstvd Requested Footnote"" (referotecd Capiteltyll-evel Capacity capacl(y capaci(y Capacity Capacity Nchool year) ot'service A.L. 136,000 740 740 740 740 740 654 88.47 Orange 107,620 726 726 726 726 726 540 74.4% Gravelly Hill 123,000 700 700 700 700 700 462 66.0% Total 1366,6201 2,1661 2,1661 2,1661 2,1661 2,1661 1,6561 76.5% Special Note(s): 1.For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted(lie superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report, These capacities will remain effeetive until changed by(1)the School C1P or(2)an amended version of this form Ghat is certified by the BOCC. 2,During the 2021-2022 school year,the Orange County Schools opened the OCS Online Academy as alternative learning option for students in grades K-12 as a resuh of the COVID-19 global pandemic. The membership counts for November 15,2021 include the oolitic students who are still assigned a base physical school within the district as these students have the opportunity to return to their assigned school during Ore school year. Physical classroom capacities must be reserved in order to ensure these students are able to return to their assigned school without space limitations. The membership counts for these online students as of November 15,2021 are:Total 173 students in Elementary(68),Middle(48),and fligh(57). Justification: Capacity and Wlembership Certification: E J k S perintei t Qate BO"CChair ° IDate 13 29 Section I Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2021-22) (Page 3 of 3) Schools Change Request Form School District: Orange Count Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 15 2021-November 14,2022 Capacl!y and Membership Submittal hate: November 15,2021 Sq 2017-201S 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 Justification Membership Percentage of High School em"c Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested (referenced Capacity/Level Feet Footnote 4 Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity ,ehool year) of Service Cedar Ridge 256,900 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,500 3 1,065 71.0% Orange 213,509 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,373 98.1% Partnership 6,600 40 40 40 40 40 34 85;0% Total 1477,0091 2,4391 2,4391 2,4391 2,4391 2,9391 2,4721 84.1% Special Note(s):1.For the November 15,2002 baso year the board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of(lie School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School C1P or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. 2.During the 2021-2022 school year,the Orange County Schools opened the OCS Online Academy as alternative learning option for students in grades K-12 as a result of the COVID-19 global pandemic. The membership counts for November 15,2021 include the online students who are still assigned a base physical school within the district as these students have the opportunity to return to their assigned school during the school year. Physical classroom capacities must be reserved in order to ensure these students are able to return to their assigoed school without space limitations. The membership counts for these online students as of November 15,2021 are;Total 173 students in Elementary(68),Middle(48),and High(57). Justification:3.The capacity at Cedar Ridge High School has increased from 1,000 students to 1,500 students due to the opening of a new 50,000 square foot classroom addition.This increases the total square footage from 206,900 to 256,900 square feet. Cap ity and M shl Certification, Y u . t��. ersnie e t Dae 13OCC Chair Da e 14 30 Section 1 Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2021-22) (Page 1 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities • (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year: November 15 2021-November 14 2022 lCapacitV and Membership Submittal Date: November 15 2021 2017�2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020�2021 202 1�2022 Membership Percentage or Elenumtar,% Square Requ". ted Requested Requested Requested Requested .111.%"tification (referenced Capacityll-evel School Feet Footnote# Capacit) Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity schooll year) orservice Carrboro 60,832 533 518 518 518 518 494 96.4% Ephesus 66,952 448 436 436 436 436 341 78.2! Estes Hills 56,299 527 516 516 516 516 353 68.4% FP Graham 66,689 538 522 522 522 522 507 97.1% Glenwood 50,764 423 412 412 412 412 422 102.4% McDougle 98,000 564 548 548 548 548 462 84.3% Monis Crove 90,221. 585 568 568 568 568 461 81.2% Northside 99,500 585 568 568 568 568 380 66.9% Rashkis 95,729 585 568 568 568 568 419 73.8% Scroggs 90,980 575 558 558 558 558 395 70.8% Scawell 52 896 466 450 450 450 450 504 112.0% Total 828 862 5,8291 5,664 5 664 5,6641 5,664 1 4,738 83.7% Special Note(s):1.For the November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(l)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: Capacity and Mernh i ertification: r 11/15/2021 SG—perintendeN Date BOCC Chair I Date 15 31 Section I Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2021-22) (Page 2 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 15 2021-November 14 2022 lCapacity and MembershiR Submittal Date: November 15 2021 Square 20117-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-20211 2021-2022 Juslification Nicnibership Percentage of Middle School FM ReqUeNtNI Requested Requested ltequcqtcd Requested rootnole4 (referenced Capacity/Levd Capacity Capacity Capacity Capaciti Capacity school year) of Service Culbreth 122;467 774 774 774 774 774 668 86% McDougle 136,221 732 732 732 732 732 754 103% Phillips 109,498 706 706 706 746 706 661 94% Smith 128,764 732 732 732 732 732 719 981/6 Total 1 496.9501 2.9441 2,9441 2,9441 2,9441 2,9441 2,8021 95.2% Special Note(s): 1. For the November 15,2042 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2403 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: Capacity and Membembill Certification: 11/15/2021 S tntendev Date BOC Chair Date 16 32 Section I Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2021-22) (Page 3 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Chapel Hilf-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 15 2021-November 142022 iCapacity and Membershie Submittal Date: November 15 2021 2017-20IN 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-21121 21121-21122 INICRIbelship 1'ercentageof SqUAre I I igh School Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested AlSfifica(ion (referenced Capacityll-evel Capacity Capacity Capacily Capacity Capacity icltool year) of Service Carrboro 148,023 800 Soo 800 800 800 849 106% Chapel Hill 241,111 1,520 1,520 1,520 I,620 1,620 1,515 94% East Chapel Hill 259,869 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,484 98% Phoenix Acad. 5,207 40 40 40. 40 40 92 230% Total 1 654,2101 3,8751 3,8751 3,87,51 3,9751 3,9751 1 3,9401 99.1% Special Note(s). 1. For the November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(l)the School CLP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification:At Phoenix Academy,57 of the 90 students are in our Virtual Learning Academy;only 33 students attend in person;33140 is 82.5%. Capacity and embers4ip Certification:kxw / } 11/15/2021 S intende t Date 130iX,Chair Die 17 33 Section II C.Membership Date 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—Change can be effectuated only by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)by all SAPFO partners. The Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) may advise if a change in date would improve the reporting or timeliness of the report. 2. Definition —The date at which student membership is calculated. This date is updated each year and also serves as the basis for projections along with the history from previous years. "For purposes of this Memorandum, the term "school membership" means the actual number of students attending school as of November 15 of each year. The figure is determined by considering the number of students enrolled(i.e. registered, regardless of whether a student is no longer attending school) and making adjustments for withdrawals, dropouts, deaths, retentions and promotions. Students who are merely absent from class on the date membership is determined as a result of sickness or some other temporary reason are included in school membership figures. Each year the School District shall transmit its school membership to the parties to this agreement no later than five (5) school days after November 15. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District November 15 of each year November 15 of each year 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: This will be analyzed in the future years to determine if it is an exemplary date. 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District No change at this time. No change at this time. 18 34 Section II II. Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) after review of the CIP requests from the School Districts. Action regarding CIP programs usually occurs during the BOCC budget Public Hearing process in the winter and spring of each year. The development of the CIP considers the conditions noted in the SAPFOTAC report released in the same CIP development year including LOS (level of service), capacity, and membership projections. 2. Definition —The process and resultant program to determine school needs and provide funding for new school facilities through a variety of funding mechanisms. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Not Applicable Not Applicable 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: The MOU outlines a system of implementing the SAPFO, including issuing Certificates of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) to new development if capacity is available. The Requests for CAPS will be evaluated using the most recently adopted Capital Investment Plan. A new Capital Investment Plan is currently under development for approval prior to June 30, 2022. 5. Recommendation: Not subject to staff review 19 35 Section II B. Student Membership Projection Methodology 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—This section is reviewed and recommended by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)to the BOCC for change, if necessary. 2. Definition —The method(s)by which student memberships are calculated for future years to determine total membership at each combined school level (Elementary, Middle, and High School)which take into consideration historical membership totals at a specific time (November 15) in the school year. These methods are also known as 'models'. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Presently, the average of five models is being used: namely 3, 5, and 10-year history/cohort survival methods, Orange County Planning Department Linear Wave, and Tischler Linear methods. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Performance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model is in its prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity shortfalls so the annual Capital Investment Plan (CIP) updates can respond proactively with siting, design, and construction. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. Attachment II.B.3 shows the performance of the models for the 2021-22 school year from the prior year projection. 5. Recommendation: Analysis on the accuracy of the results is showing that some models have better results in one district while others have better results in the other district. The historic growth rate is recorded by the models, but projected future growth is more difficult to accurately quantify. In all areas of the county,proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. The system is updated in November of each year,becoming part of the historical projection base. 20 36 STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION 1 CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS n Q• Tischler Linear(OCS& Mathematical formula;straight line projection y=((c"b)*x)+b Historical growth is reflected in projected growth ti CHCCS) y--projected population;c=historical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years BYM+(BYI+5(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o o increase in BYI of 5 every other year reflects (ACS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year; /oSL=/o of total increases in housing growth; reflects buildout membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year constraints member by school level BYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment OCP Linear Wavy Mathematical linear with percent variation among school decrease in BYI of 15 until school year 2010-2011 (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year,%SL=%of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year buildout constraints member by school level >v K„=kn.t+(kn.,*0.01) Mathematical formula that computes the average nm1 advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(E G„I g�r)13 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=3 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same CHGGS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n_1(a) percentage of students in each grade level kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year andlor historical growth rates membershi other than kindergarten); revious rade's membershi a=avera e ~ P( 9=p g P� 9 l advancement rate;b=projected membership Kn=k�-t+(kmj*0.01) Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 M. advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(E G„1 gn.t)!5 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the 4 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g ,,,(a) percentage of students in each grade level kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average advancement rate;b=projected membership b Kn=knA+(k�r'0.01) A Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 advancement rate overthe previous 10 years for each a=(E Gn 19,1)1 10 Assumes a 1%v annual growth rate for the p 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=10 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same d CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level y kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average �{ advancement rate;b=projected membership C rn 37 Section II Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2020-21) (Page 1 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2020-2021 School Year November 13, 2020 11/15/19 2020 Report 11/13/20 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2019 - Nov 2020 2019-20 2020-21 2020-21 Elementary 3232 3047 - 185 Model Projection is T 3241 H194 OCP 3248 H2O1 10C 3275 H228 5C 3285 H238 3C 3286 H239 Avera a 3267 H220 11/15/19 11/13/20 Middle 1763 1654 - 109 Model Projection is T 1768 H114 OCP 1773 H119 10C 1709 H55 5C 1702 H48 3C 1686 H32 Avera a 1728 H74 11/15/19 11/13/20 High 2397 2381 -16 Model Projection is T 2404 H23 OCP 2412 H31 10C 2398 H17 5C 2389 H8 3C 2401 H2O Avera a 2401 H2O Totals 11/15/19 11/13/20 Elementary 3232 3047 Middle 1763 1654 High 2397 2381 Total 7392 7082 -310 Model Projection is T 7413 H331 OCP 7433 H351 10C 7382 H300 5C 7376 H294 3C 7373 H291 Average 7396 H314 H means High L means Low 22 38 Section II Attachment I1.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2020-21) (Page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2020-2021 School Year (November 13, 2020) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 194 students to 239 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 220 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 185 students between November 16, 2019 and November 13, 2020. Middle School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 32 students to 119 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 74 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 109 students between November 16, 2019 and November 13, 2020. High School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 8 students to 31 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 20 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 16 students between November 16, 2019 and November 13, 2020. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 291 students to 351 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 314 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 310 students, which is the sum of-185 at Elementary, -109 at Middle, and -16 at High. 23 Section II Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis9(2020-21) (Page 3 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membershi 2020-2021 School Year November 13, 2020 11/15/19 2020 Report 11/13/20 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2019 - Nov 2020 2019-20 2020-21 2020-21 Elementary 5363 4893 -470 Model Projection is T 5398 H505 OCP 5378 H485 10C 5349 H456 5C 5331 H438 3C 5322 H429 Avera a 5356 H463 11/15/19 11/13/20 Middle 3044 2917 - 127 Model Projection is T 3064 H147 OCP 3055 H138 10C 3031 H114 5C 3033 H116 3C 3042 H125 Avera a 3045 H128 11115119 11/13/20 High 3940 3932 -8 Model Projection is T 3966 H34 OCP 3959 H27 10C 3981 H49 5C 3998 H66 3C 4022 H90 Avera a 3985 H53 Totals 11/15/19 11/13/20 Elementary 5363 4893 Middle 3044 2917 High 3940 3932 Total 12,347 11,742 -605 Model Projection is T 12,428 H686 OCP 12,392 H650 10C 12,361 H619 5C 12,362 H620 3C 12,386 H644 Average 12,386 H644 H means High L means Low 24 40 Section II Attachment II.13.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2020-21) (Page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2020-2021 School Year (November 13, 2020) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT 3C Elementary School Level • Projections were all high ranging from 429 students to 505 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 463 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 470 students between November 16, 2019 and November 13, 2020. Middle School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 114 students to 147 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 128 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 127 students between November 16, 2019 and November 13, 2020. High School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 27 students to 90 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 53 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 8 students between November 16, 2019 and November 13, 2020. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 619 students to 686 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 644 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 605 students, which is the sum of-470 at Elementary, -127 at Middle, and -8 at High. 25 41 Section II Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2021-22) (Page 1 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2021-2022 School Year November 15, 2021 11/13/20 2021 Report 11/15/21 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2020 - Nov 2021 2020-21 2021-22 2021-22 Elementary 3047 3023 -24 Model Projection is T 3036 H13 OCP 3128 H105 10C 2968 L55 5C 2966 L57 3C 2960 L63 Avera a 3011 L12 11/13/20 11/15/21 Middle 1654 1656 +2 Model Projection is T 1648 L 8 OCP 1683 H27 10C 1630 L 26 5C 1613 L 43 3C 1598 L 58 Avera a 1634 L 22 11/13/20 11/15/21 High 2381 2472 +91 Model Projection is T 2372 L100 OCP 2306 L166 10C 2387 L85 5C 2372 L100 3C 2389 L83 Avera a 2365 L107 Totals 11/13/20 11/15/21 Elementary 3047 3023 Middle 1654 1656 High 2381 2472 Total 7082 7151 +69 Model Projection is T 7056 L95 OCP 7117 L34 10C 6985 L166 5C 6951 L200 3C 6947 L204 Average 7010 L141 H means High L means Low 26 42 Section II Attachment 1LB.3 —Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2021-22) (Page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2021-2022 School Year (November 15, 2021) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 63 students below to 105 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 12 students below actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 24 students between November 15, 2020 and November 14, 2021. Middle School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 58 students below to 27 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 22 students below actual membership. • The membership actually increase by 2 students between November 15, 2020 and November 14, 2021. High School Level • Projections were all low, ranging from 166 students to 83 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 107 students below actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 91 students between November 15, 2020 and November 14, 2021. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were all low, ranging from 34 to 204 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 141 students below actual membership. • The membership increased in total by 69 students, which is the sum of-24 at Elementary, +2 at Middle, and +91 at High. 27 43 Section II Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2021-22) (Page 3 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2021-2022 School Year November 15, 2021 11/13/20 2021 Report 11/15/21 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2020 - Nov 2021 2020-21 2021-22 2021-22 Elementary 4893 4738 - 155 Model Projection is T 4885 H147 OCP 5085 H347 10C 4732 L6 5C 4695 L43 3C 4644 L94 Avera a 4808 H70 11/13/20 11/15/21 Middle 2917 2802 -115 Model Projection is T 2912 H110 OCP 2890 H88 10C 2860 H58 5C 2859 H57 3C 2846 H44 Avera a 2874 H72 11/13/20 11/15/21 High 3932 3940 + 8 Model Projection is T 3926 L14 OCP 3796 L144 10C 3925 L15 5C 3939 L1 3C 3933 L7 Avera a 3904 L36 Totals 11/13/20 11/15/21 Elementary 4893 4738 Middle 2917 2802 High 3932 3940 Total 11,742 11,480 -262 Model Projection is T 11,723 H243 OCP 11,771 H291 10C 11,517 H37 5C 11,493 H13 3C 11,423 H57 Average 11,586 H106 H means High L means Low 28 44 Section II Attachment II.13.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2021-22) (Page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2021-2022 School Year (November 15, 2021) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT 3C Elementary School Level • Projections were all mixed ranging from 94 students below to 347 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 70 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 155 students between November 15, 2020and November 14, 2021. Middle School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 44 students to 110 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 72 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 115 students between November 15, 2020 and November 14, 2021. High School Level • Projections were all low, ranging from 1 students to 144 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 36 students below actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 8 students between November 15, 2020 and November 14, 2021. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 13 students to 291 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 106 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 262 students, which is the sum of-155 at Elementary, -115 at Middle, and +8 at High. 29 45 Section II C. Student Membership Projections 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report certifications. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition — The result of the average of the five student projection models represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level (Elementary, Middle, and High) for each school district(Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District and Orange County School District). 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The 5 model average discussed in Section II.B The 5 model average discussed in Section (Student Projection Methodology). See II.B (Student Projection Methodology). See Attachment II.C.4 Attachment II.C.3 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show a decrease and negative growth rate for all three school levels for both districts in the 10-year projection period. Attachment II.C.3 and Attachment II.C.4 show year-by-year percent growth and projected level of service (LOS). The projection models were updated using current(November 15, 202 1) memberships. Ten years of student membership were projected thereafter. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Elementary The previous year(2020-21)projections for November 2021 at this level were overestimated by 70 students. The actual membership decreased by 155 students. Over the previous ten years, this level has shown varying increases and decreases in growth rates. Following a significant increase (168 students) in 2011-12, this level has experienced a decrease in six out of the following nine school years. The level experienced a significant decrease in 2020-21 due to impacts from COVID. Growth rates during the past ten years have ranged from -8.76% to 30 46 Section II +3.17%. The district's eleventh elementary school,Northside Elementary School, opened in 2013. Capacity was decreased in 2017-18 due to changes in class size averages for kindergarten to third grade by the North Carolina State Legislature. The need for an additional elementary school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. This is similar to last year's projections. Although not included in SAPFO school capacity or membership numbers, Pre-K programs continue to impact operations at District elementary schools where Pre-K programs exist. CHCCS reported 222 Pre-K students for the 2021-22 school year. Specific impacts of Pre-K programs at the elementary school level continue to be reviewed and discussed . Middle The previous year(2020-21)projections for November 2021 for this level were overestimated by 72 students. The actual membership decreased by 115 students. Over the previous ten years, this level has shown varying increases before experiencing decreases in 2015-16 and 2016-17. Following these decreases, membership increased the last three school years before experiencing a decrease in 2020-21 due to impacts from COVID. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from-4.17% to+3.78%. Capacity was increased in 2014-15 with the opening of the Culbreth Middle School science wing. The need for an additional middle school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. This is similar to last year's projections. High School The previous year(2020-21)projections for November 2021 for this level were underestimated by 36 students. The actual membership increased by 8 students. Over the previous ten years, growth has been variable with decreases in membership in only four of the last ten years. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from -0.90 to +4.39%. The need for additional high school capacity at Carrboro High School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. This is similar to last year's projections. Additional Information for Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Following the economic downturn (2011-14), there has been an increase in residential projects, specifically multifamily development, in the Town of Chapel Hill. As previously stated, proposed growth is not directly and immediately included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. However,proposed student growth resulting from new 31 47 Section II development is directly accounted for through the CAPS test. The CAPS test is conducted during the approval process at a certain stage and this step does project development impacts against rated capacity. Once students are enrolled in a school year,through annual reporting of student membership numbers, 10-year student projections can be updated to display future capacity needs in time to efficiently plan for future school construction requests. SAPFOTAC will continue to monitor and evaluate the demand and growth of residential development in Chapel Hill and Carrboro as well as its effect on student membership rates. Orange County School District Elementary The previous year(2020-21) projections for November 2021 at this level were underestimated by 12 students. Actual membership decreased by 24 students. Over the previous ten years, this level experienced positive growth before experiencing decreases in 2014-15, 2016-17, and 2017-18. Following these decreases, this level experienced increases before experiencing a decrease in 2020-21 due to impacts from COVID. Growth rates during this period have ranged from -5.72% to +1.92%. Capacity was decreased in 2017-18 due to changes in class size averages for kindergarten to third grade by the North Carolina State Legislature. The need for an additional Elementary School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. This is similar to last year's projections. Although not included in SAPFO school capacity or membership numbers, Pre-K programs continue to impact operations at District elementary schools where Pre-K programs exist. OCS reported 125 Pre-K students for the 2021-22 school year. Specific impacts of Pre-K programs at the elementary school level continue to be reviewed and discussed. Middle The previous year(2020-21)projections for November 2021 for this level were underestimated by 22 students. The actual membership increased by 2 students. Over the previous ten years, growth has varied widely with decreases in student membership in five of the ten school years. Growth rates during this period have ranged from-6.18%to+3.74%. The need for an additional Middle School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. This is similar to last year's projections. 32 48 Section II High School The previous year(2020-21)projections for November 2021 for this level were underestimated by 107 students. The actual membership increased by 91 students. This school level has experienced decreases in five out of the ten previous school years. Growth rates during this period ranged from-3.93% to 4.58%. In 2012-13 student membership increased by 32 while capacity decreased by 119 at Orange County High School as a result of a N.C. Department of Public Instruction(DPI) study. Due to renovations at Cedar Ridge High School, this level experienced an increase in capacity of 500 seats. The need for an additional high school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. Additional Information for Orange County School District The City of Mebane lies partially within Orange County and students within the Orange County portion of Mebane attend Orange County Schools. However, the City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO agreement and therefore does not require that CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools)be issued prior to development approvals. Following the economic downturn (2011-14), there has been an increase in approved and undeveloped residential development in the City of Mebane and the Town of Hillsborough. However, the residential growth that has occurred in the recent past within Mebane's and Hillsborough's jurisdiction has yet to be seen with OCS student membership numbers and fully realized into the historically based projection methods due to the recession, charter schools, and possibly new family dynamics affecting family size. SAPFOTAC will continue monitoring and evaluating the demand and growth of residential development in Mebane and Hillsborough as well as its effect on student membership rates. Currently, there are two Charter Schools located in the Town of Hillsborough, which continue to have an effect on OCS membership numbers. Charter schools are not included as part of the SAPFO Annual Report and, as a result, their membership and capacity are not included in future projections. However, the SAPFOTAC does monitor charter schools and their effect on student enrollment at both school districts. 5. 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Student Membership Growth Rate 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) each year and referred to the BOCC for annual report certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition —The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections resulting from the average of the five models represented by 10-year numerical membership projections by school level for each school district. This does not represent the year-by- year growth rate that may be positive or negative,but rather the average of the annual anticipated growth rates over the next 10 years. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District See Attachment II.D.2 See Attachment II.D.2 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The membership figures and percentage growth The membership figures and percentage on the attachments show continued growth at growth on the attachments show each school level within the system. Projected continued growth at each school level Average Annual Growth Rate over next ten within the system. Projected Average years: Annual Growth Rate over next ten years: Year Projection Made Year Projection Made School 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- School 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- Level 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Level 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Elementary 0.36% 0.56% 0.65% -0.23% -0.88% Elementary 0.58% 0.91% 0.84% -0.02% -0.04% Middle 0.21% 0.19% -0.07% -1.50% -2.100/( Middle 0.13% 0.28% 0.37% -0.67% -0.72% High 0% 1 0.16% 1 0.03% -1.44% -2.15% Hi h -0.10% 0.21% 0.21% -0.98% -1.06% 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Use statistics as noted. Use statistics as noted. 38 54 2020-2021 Orange County Student Projections lementary School Year 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 actual Membership 3,047 3,011 2,994 2,982 2,962 2,949 2,966 2,984 3,002 3,019 3,039 Average%Increase -1.17% -0.56% -0.42% -0.68% -0.42% 0.59% 0.59% 0.59% 0.60% 0656/.— Middle 65%Middle n School Year 2(actual)1 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 20252026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 �r Membership 1,654 1,634 1,611 1,613 1,593 1,598 1,579 1,552 1,530 1,538 1,545 Average%Increase -1.18% -1.46% 0.13% -1.18% 0.31% -1.20% -1.71% -1.42% 0.50% 0.50% ^* rD Hi h School c I, School Year 2020-20212021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025 2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 actual N Membership 2 381 2 365 2 367 2 301 2 293 2 239 2 213 2 221 2 200 2,176 2,157 t� Average%Increase -0.66% 0.09% -2.80% -0.32% -2.36% -1.18% 0.37% -0.94% -1.10% -0.86% ~ CD N n O � Chapel Hill/Carrboro Student Projections f � Elementa ¢ ¢ 2020-2021 School Year actual 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 (� Membership 4 893 4 808 4 708 4 685 4 655 4 634 4 666 4 698 4 731 4,759 4,782 Average%Increase -1.73% -2.09% -0.48% -0.65% -0.45% 0.69% 0.69% 0.69% 0.59% 0.49% ~ w .• N x Middle 2020-2021 F n School Year actual 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 20252026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 Membership 2,917 2,874 2,830 2,747 2,671 2,601 2,558 2,511 2,473 2,489 2,505 A a. Average%Increase -1.49% -1.52% -2.94% -2.76% -2.61% -1.68% -1.83% -1.51% 0.65% 0.65% i �s Hi h School o 2020-2021 `C School Year actual 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 20252026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 Membership 3,932 3,904 3,915 3,906 3,893 3,844 3,721 3,641 3,557 3,438 3,401 A Average%Increase -0.72% 0.28% -0.21% -0.35% -1.27% -3.20% -2.15% -2.29% -3.35% -1.10% ft w 0 N � 55 2021-2022 M Orange County Student Projections lementary School Year 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 2031-2032 actual Membership 3,023 3,000 2,982 2,948 2,926 2,934 2,949 2,962 2,977 2,994 3,011 Average%Increase -0.74% -0.62% -1.14% -0.74% 0.26% 0.51% 0.45% 0.52% 0.57% 0.56% Middle School Year 2(actual) 2022-2023 20232024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 2031-2032 ^ Membership 1,656 1 1,622 1 1,610 1 1,599 1,592 1 1,575 1 1,541 1 1,522 1 1,526 1 1,533 1 1,539 Average%Increase -2.04% 1 -0.74% 1 -0.71% -0.39% 1 -1.11% 1 -2.12% 1 -1.23% 1 0.23% 1 0.47% 1 0.41% Hi h School ^� ~ � C School Year 2021-2022actual 2022-2023 20232024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026 2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 2031-2032 N O � Membership2 472 2 508 2 466 2 438 2 358 2 315 2 321 2 297 2 272 2,254 2,222 Average%Increase 1.46% -1.69% -1.14% -3.25% -1.85% 0.27% 1.05% 1.07% 0.80% 1.43% N o � N� N rp Chapel Hill/Carrboro Student Projections N lementary 2021-2022 School Year actual 2022-2023 20232024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-230 2030-2031 2031-2032 W Membership4 738 4 582 4 505 4 411 4 321 4 271 4,281 4 292 430 4 4 322 4 333 p ¢' Average%Increase -3.30% -1.66% -2.10% -2.03% -1.15% 0.24% 0.25% 0.29% 0.40% 0.27% O n Middle N School Year 2021-2022 actual 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 2031-2032 x Membership 2,802 1 2,742 1 2,654 1 2,581 1 2,516 1 2,484 1 2,385 1 2,296 1 2,246 1 2,256 1 2,264 CD Average%Increase -2.13% 1 -3.22% 1 -2.77% 1 -2.48% 1 -1.29% 1 -3.98% 1 -3.75% 1 -2.15% 1 0.42% 1 0.38% sv Hi h School I o 2021-2022 O School Year (actual) 2022-2023 20232024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 2031-2032 Membership 3,940 3,908 3,860 3,801 3,723 3,586 3,515 3,439 3,338 3,258 3,169 Average%Increase -0.82% -1.22% -1.53% -2.05% -3.69% -1.97% -2.17% -2.93% -2.40% -2.74% � C N � N N �' 56 Section II E. Student / Housing Generation Rate 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition — Student generation rate refers to the number of public school students per housing unit constructed in each school district, as defined in the Student Generation Rate Study completed by TisherBise on October 28, 2014. Housing units include single-family detached, single family attached/duplex, multifamily, and manufactured homes. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District See Attachment II.E.1 See Attachment II.E.1 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: At the January 2014 SAPFOTAC meeting, members discussed the increased number of students generated in both school districts from new development, particularly multifamily housing. The SAPFOTAC recommended further evaluation of the adopted Student Generation Rates and the impacts the number of bedrooms a particular housing type may have on student generation rates. As a result, Orange County entered into a contract with TischlerBise to update the student generation rate analysis. The new student generation rates were approved on May 19, 2015 and are shown in Attachment II.E.1. New rates from the 2014 Student Generation Rates for Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District Report are based on an inventory of recently built units from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013. It should be noted that students are generated from new housing as well as from existing housing where new families have moved in. The CAPS system estimates new development impacts and associated student generation,but it is important to understand that student increases are a composite of both of these factors. This effect can be dramatic and can vary greatly between areas and districts where either new 41 57 Section II housing is dominant or new families move into a large inventory of existing housing stock. 5. Recommendation: No change at this time. 42 58 M Q• TischlerBise Student Generation Rates — 2014 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Schools 0-3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5+ Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Detached 0.61 0.84 1.13 0.84 0-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Attached 0.27 0.42 0.38 Multifamily/Other 0.11 0.47 0.18 Manufactured Home 0.268 0.86 0.78 Weight Average for Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District 0.49 Orange County Schools 0-3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5+ Bedrooms Weighted Average .~ Single-Family Detached 0.35 0.57 0.57 0.44 0-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Attached 0.07 0.17 0.15 �? Multifamily/Other 0.08 0.67 0.17 a Manufactured Home 0.67 0.47 0.52 Weight Average for Orange County School District 0.37 Source:Student Generation Rates for Orange County School District and Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District,TischlerBise,October 28,2014 O Revised N1ay 7,2015 A� !r y W N O r+ 59 Section II III. Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process Abstract: The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance process has two distinct components: A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (Process 1) Timeframe: In November of each year, Student Membership and Building Capacity is transmitted from the school districts to the Orange County Board of Commissioners for consideration and approval and used in the following years CIP (e.g. November 15, 2021 membership numbers used to develop a CIP to be considered for adoption in June 2022). Process Framework 1. SAPFOTAC projects future student membership from historical data, current membership and hypothetical growth rates from established methodologies. 2. School Districts and BOCC compare projections to existing capacity and proposed Capital Investment Plan. 3. SAPFOTAC forwards data and projections to all SAPFO partners. 4. School Districts develop Capital Investment Plan Needs Assessment during this process 5. The Capital Investment Plan work sessions and Public Hearings are conducted by the BOCC in the spring of each year. 6. The adoption of CIP that sets forth monies and timeframe for school construction (future capacity)by BOCC. 44 60 Section III School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process 1 - Capital Investment Planning (CIPS Projection Method1 CIP Approval CAPS System (Historical Membership �\ (Proposed new construction (Certificate of Adequate plus Hypothetical Growth �® i.e. school capacity added by Public Schools) Rate) number of seats and year) Actual Adjustments (Current year actual replaces y past year membership *=J projections) 'Historical Membership is a product of students generated from: (1) pre-existing/approved undeveloped lots where new housing is c built, (2) existing housing stock with new families/children, and(3) newly approved housing development (in the future this component will be known as CAPS approved development). n 'The only part of the CAPS System (i.e., computer spreadsheet subdivision tracking) that receives data from the Process 1 CIP o includes the actual membership (November 15 of preceding CIP year) and new school capacity amount(seats) in a specific year :r pursuant to the CIP. c 0 45 61 Section III B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Update (Process 2) Timeframe: The CAPS system is updated approximately November 15 of each year when the school districts report actual membership and `pre-certified' capacity, whether it is CIP associated or prior `joint action' agreement. `Joint action' determinations of changes in capacity due to State rules or other non-construction related items are anticipated to be done prior to the November 15 capacity and membership reporting date. This update may reflect the Board of County Commissioners action on the earlier year Capital Investment Plan (CIP) as it affects capacity and addition of new actual fall membership. The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) stays in effect until the following year —(e.g.: November 15, 2005 to November 14, 2006). New development is originally logged for a certain year. As the CAPS system is updated, each CAPS projection year is `absorbed' by the actual estimate of a given year. Later year CAPS projections of the same development remain in the future year CAPS system accordingly. For example, if a 50-lot subdivision is issued a CAPS, 15 lots may be assigned to "Year 1," 10 lots to "Year 2," 10 lots to "Year 3," 10 lots to "Year 4," and 5 lots to "Year 5." When"Year 1" is updated, the students generated from the 15 lots are absorbed by the actual estimate. The students generated in "Years 2, 3, 4, and 5" are held in the CAPS system and added to the appropriate year when the CAPS system is updated. As previously noted in Section II.C, The City of Mebane is not a parry to the SAPFO and does not require that CAPS be issued prior to approving development activities. Increasing development within this area of the county has the potential to encumber a significant portion of the available capacity within the Orange County School District. Although the SAPFO system is not formally regulated in Mebane, staff monitors development activity and when students enter the school system their enrollment is calculated and used in future school projection needs. Please note that the two processes (CIP and CAPS) are on separate, but parallel tracks. However, the CIP does create a crossover of capacity information between the two processes. For example, the SAPFO system for both school districts that will be established/initiated/ 46 62 Section III certified each year in November and is based on prior year created and/or planned CIP capacity and current school year membership. The SAPFOTAC report including new current year membership and projections are to be used for upcoming CIP development as noted in Process 1. CIP Process 1 (for CIP 2022 - 2032) November 2020—June 2021 (using 2021 SAPFOTAC Report) SAPFO CAPS Process 2 (for SAPFO System 2022—2023) November 2021 -November 2022 47 63 School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process 2 - Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Allocation 2022 CAPS system is effective November 15, 2021 through November 14, 2022. The system is updated with new membership, CIP capacity changes, and any other BOCC/School District joint action approved capacity prior to November 15, 2021. This information is received within 5 days of November 15 and posted within the next 15 days. This CAPS system recalibration is retroactive to November 15, 2021. CAPS Allocation System CAPS System' to 1. Certified Capacity AC = SC — (ADM+ND 1+ND2+. . .) b 2 LOS Capacity o 3. Actual Membership 4. Year Start Available Capacity i 5. Ongoing Current Available Capacity (includes available n capacity decreases from approved CAPS development by year) 6. CAPS approved development AC>O - Issue CAPS a. Total units b. single Family' AC<O - Defer CAPS to later date C. Other Housing' b 'Student Generation Rates from CAPS housing type create future membership estimate. Please note that this CAPS membership future estimate is c different than the projection based on historical data and projection models used in the CIP process 1. This estimate only captures new development impact,which is the component that the SAPFO can regulate. 0 z AC—Available Capacity- Starts at Annual Update Capacity and reduces as CAPS approved development is entered into the system. SC—Certified School Level Capacity n ADM—Average Daily Membership Y ND—New Development;ND means first approved CAPS approved development 48 �������� �������� ��ml��®�������® . . . . ���� �E�f®���E�fI����f�EI�I��ll�f��1�®f��l��f��l�®f��l��f��l�®f��f��f�®f �����1����1�������������� . . .. �f�l�I�l4f���11�1�1�11�E�I��I�f��l��f���f��f��f��l�R�f��l��l��f�l�f .. ®�®�®� ����©o����m� �������������������m���m�����������������m����� .. . .. .. . ��mf�m���f�m���f��fi�af��mf��f�f��f��f��a�m���mf��f��f�m���f�m����m�� ���®rte®��®®� � ������� �mf����m��mf�mf��®��m��m��m���n�m���n��m��a���m�� �����¢��m���������®���m�i���m���������n�������� ��i����m�����������®���������� ����i���������m����������m�������������an������� ����f��f��mf���f�f�f�mf�f�mf���f�Rmf�mf�mf�f�mf�mf�mf�Emf�Emf��f