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HomeMy WebLinkAboutMinutes 02-17-2022 Virtual Business Meeting 1 APPROVED 3/15/22 MINUTES ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS VIRTUAL BUSINESS MEETING February 17, 2022 7:00 p.m. The Orange County Board of Commissioners met for a Virtual Business Meeting on Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 7:00 p.m. COUNTY COMMISSIONERS PRESENT: Chair Renee Price, Vice Chair Jamezetta Bedford, and Commissioners Amy Fowler, Jean Hamilton, Sally Greene, and Anna Richards COUNTY COMMISSIONERS ABSENT: Commissioner Earl McKee COUNTY ATTORNEYS PRESENT: John Roberts COUNTY STAFF PRESENT: County Manager Bonnie Hammersley, Deputy County Manager Travis Myren, and Clerk to the Board Laura Jensen. (All other staff members will be identified appropriately below) Chair Price called the meeting to order at 7:00 p.m. A roll call was called; all members were present except for Commissioner McKee. Due to current public health concerns, the Board of Commissioners is conducting a Virtual Business Meeting on Thursday, February 17, 2022. Members of the Board of Commissioners participated in the meeting remotely. As in prior meetings, members of the public were able to view and listen to the meeting via live streaming video at http://www.orangecountync.gov/967/Meeting-Videos and on Orange County Gov-TV on channels 1301 or 97.6 (Spectrum Cable). In this new virtual process, there are two methods for public comment. • Written submittals by email • Speaking during the virtual meeting Detailed public comment instructions for each method are provided at the bottom of this agenda. (Pre-registration is required.) 1. Additions or Changes to the Agenda None. Chair Price dispensed with reading the public charge. 2. Public Comments (Limited to One Hour) a. Matters not on the Printed Agenda Candace Alley introduced herself to the Board and indicated she is a certified alcohol and drug counselor in Orange County. She said she is starting a program here and runs a non- profit on January 4, 2022 that will hopefully become a 501(c)(3) by mid-April. She said she has created a trauma-healing ecosystem that is patent pending. She wanted to introduce herself to the Board and looks forward to working with Orange County through her program. She has lived in Orange County since 2010 and has been a business owner here since 2016. She said she has never been comfortable to ask for support of the community, but as part of her own 2 trauma-recovery, she is leaving here to start a peer-support supervision pilot program for the State. She said she hopes to be the first trauma-healing center in Orange County. She will be doing all she can to give back to the community and gain the Board's support during the budget process in her business. Chair Price thanked Candace Alley for coming to speak to them and verified that she has is in touch with the Outside Agency Funding Program through the county. b. Matters on the Printed Agenda (These matters will be considered when the Board addresses that item on the agenda below.) 3. Announcements, Petitions and Comments by Board Members Commissioner Fowler said that she attended the Triangle Area Rural Planning Organization (TARPO) meeting last week, but not much happened with funding on hold. She said the Agricultural Summit was Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week, and she did the welcome this morning. She encouraged people to use the Visit NC Farm App, which she learned about through the summit, and said she downloaded the app herself today. She said she attended the Climate Council meeting this afternoon where they discussed their yearly progress report that they will send to the Board of Commissioners. She said they also talked about future which may include education for other cities, as well as a regional summit. Commissioner Hamilton said the Capital Needs Work Group met on Wednesday morning and is making progress. She said they are getting a sense of the scope of the work and making timelines for information they want to receive. She said the next meeting will be March 16, 2022 at 8:30 AM and will focus on how the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) impacts the capital needs of the schools. Commissioner Bedford said the Burlington-Graham MPO met this week. She attended the REI Groundwater training again on Monday and noted that it is available to all commissioners. She also attended the climate session during the Ag Summit and learned a lot about the State Climate Office at NC State. Commissioner Richards attended the Chamber of Commerce board meeting this morning. She invited the commissioners to look at the chamber's calendar on their website and attend their upcoming events. She highlighted the Career Academy Kickoff scheduled for Tuesday morning at 8:30 AM, as well as the Chamber Annual Meeting. She said she attended one day of the Ag Summit and learned about the State Climate Office and the challenges with meat processing in the state. She said also attended and enjoyed the REI Groundwater training. Commissioner Greene said she attended the Ag Summit, and particularly enjoyed the conservation easement session and the agro-tourism discussion. She presented at the summit on the work of the Broadband Task Force and started a conversation with farmers on their broadband needs. Last week she attended an online session on the development of the Trinity Court public housing in Chapel Hill. She said this is relevant to the county because it is being redeveloped by a private partner and most units house those with project-based vouchers. Chair Price said she unfortunately did not get to listen to very much of the Ag Summit, as she attended the National Association of Counties (NACo) conference this week. She said there was discussion on plans to bolster assistance and support for rural areas, including broadband, and how to bring electric vehicles and tools into rural areas. She said there was also focus was on the American Recovery Plan and how to use those funds. She said that Governor Cooper held a press conference this afternoon and discussed local jurisdictions and school boards lifting mask mandates in certain low risk areas, and these areas includes schools. She said that she and the town mayors will meet with the Health Director tomorrow to 3 discuss. She said that Governor Cooper said more guidance will be determined by March 71h She said that she and the mayors are working in concert with each other. 4. Proclamations/ Resolutions/ Special Presentations a. OWASA Annual Update Presentation The Board received a presentation and information from the Orange Water and Sewer Authority (OWASA) on recent activities. BACKGROUND: At the beginning of each calendar year, OWASA representatives appear before the Board of Commissioners to make a presentation on recent OWASA activities. An update on OWASA's Long-Range Water Supply Plan will also be provided. OWASA Board Chair Jody Eimers and Board Member/Immediate Past Chair Ray DuBose, both Orange County appointees to the OWASA Board, will present the annual update. OWASA Planning and Development Manager Ruth Rouse will provide an update to OWASA's Long Range Water Supply Plan (LRWSP). Jody Eimers introduced Todd Taylor, executive director of OWASA, Ruth Rouse, and Ray DuBose. Jody Eimers provided a Strategic Plan update. OWASA is working on a new Strategic Plan to help guide investments and priorities over the next 5-6 years. The OWASA Board of Directors has held three work sessions with staff to work on the new strategic plan, which included discussing input received from the community, board, and staff, as well as revising mission and vision. Recently began working to narrow top six priorities for next 5-6 years. Jody Eimers discussed board membership. She thanked the Commissioners for appointing her and Ray DuBose to the OWASA Board of Directors. She described the board as a governing body rather than an advisory body. She explained the Board's responsibilities in detail. She said that Board members are compensated for their service on the board. She said that all interested candidates are encouraged to apply. OWASA works to recruit diverse members and the only interest needed is an interest to serve and be available. She said that they appreciate assistance in recruiting board members and assistance encouraging applications. She said that they have been sharing information with the NAACP and El Centro Hispano on board vacancies. She said that Chapel Hill appoints five OWASA Board members, Carrboro appoints two, and Orange County appoints two. She indicated that there are two openings on the Board of Directors. She said that she and Ray DuBose are both on their second terms and that she has been selected as chair. She highlighted the importance of filling vacancies as quickly as possible due to the important work that is ongoing. She said that appointments by Orange County will be made July 1 in 2023 and 2024. She invited Ray DuBose to make comments. Ray DuBose discussed the status of the OWASA standard collection practices and affordability. He said OWASA used the local indefinite state of emergency as guidance and chose to defer resuming standard bill collection practices for residential customers. He said there are about 580 customers that are 60 days or more passed due with an average of $460 passed due. He said that customers will be given 30 days' notice before collection practices begin. He said that customers that miss two billing cycles will be sent to collection. He said that upon resuming standard collection practices, OWASA will provide payment plan option for those who need it. He noted that utility bill assistance continues to be critical to ensuring long term access to OWASA's services. He said current delinquent customers are encouraged to pay what they can and to seek bill pay assistance, like the Care to Share donation program. He 4 said that he is grateful to the county for administering the emergency housing fund and the County's leadership in administering the temporary Federal Low Income Household Water Assistance Program (LIHWAP). He said that the emergency housing fund provided over $70,000 of billing assistance for 122 households. He said that the LIHWAP has pledged over $60,000 of billing assistance in last 2 months. He said that OWASA has been in touch with customers with overdue bills to educate them on these resources. Ruth Rouse made the following PowerPoint presentation: Slide #1 Long-Range Water SupplyPlan Information to Orange County Board of County Commissioners Ruth RDUSe, Planning and Development - r• � Slide #2 Key Messages • We have a low risk of running out of water. • our largest vulnerability is in extended drought. •After methodical and inclusive process,Jordan Lake is best option to augment our current supplies. • Partnership of local utilities is moving forward to design and build new treatment facilities on Jordan La ke. 5 Slide #3 Ensuring Long-flange Water Supply Resiliency EYALVhTl LONG-RAMC! WATES SUMV PURSUE ETRATF614S TO INCREASE WV EEL fU PLYM1-S-E%141--EyW4Y I ' ' 4 l"5'LBwZ-HANG! 2 [S BFIAW[YS_ - - Aoort LGNd_- A :L .� tIOCEL FUTURE WA;TR S_=UPPPk_�=PLAN �rl i i� 3 KISlki.�+�ti.wk— _ KEHTIFT �} tR%Lb CIrMG WAY COL I NS Ac.kY.If.1 `"� .I IPPLY RIS.Ki +b G-k We considered community SK"Cr RR[1NRAk6 BAWATE feedback in our tvaluatlon,>>> AL�w_r: -:RWATIVE # SLTRRNhrrrFi__ ...rcyJlti 7 V PLI9RRI2E k HCAL.LHENI ALTEEI NATPV21 Slide #4 Our Planned Water Supply Demands Under • Conditions 16 is E 12 Yield Y 10 E s ,, • ' . 6 ActualBaseline,Zst, *'Poo Demands 4 and 99th Percentile Projections 0 1960 19W 2000 2010 2020 20n 2040 X51) 20% 2070 Fiscal Year Ruth Rouse said that the blue line shows the yield of local water supply and the gray shaded area is the projected supply and that there are uncertainties with both. She said that the blue line would shift down if there is drought. She said that the actual demands are shown in black and that there has been a reduction in demand. She said that the drought in 2002 6 required the community to conserve and that those habits have not changed, and that the community has continued to conserve since that time. She said that there are also rates that incentivize conservation. She said that UNC's reclaimed water system uses highly treated wastewater for non-drinking water purposes and meets over 10% of the community's needs. Slide #5 Our Current Water SUPPlY Risk is the Long i Refill Time of Cane CreekReservoir Cane Creek Reservoir has Long Refill Times CCR&Expanded QR Cane Creek Pots Falls Lake Little River Pocs Jordan Lake Lake Benson Lake Michii& University Lake 4 2G 40 60 80 NO 120 140 1Fn Volume to Drainage Area 111V1G/sq ml) ---------------------------------------- Ruth Rouse said that the Cane Creek Reservoir has a lot of water in it but that it is a small watershed. She said this impacts the refill time and that the quarry does not have a drainage area. She said that if those get drawn down at the same time, it leaves the community vulnerable. Slide #6 1995 2020 2045 UniversizyUke:4.50 million pl Ion s Cane Creek Re5,ervoir:3 billion gallons LM Quarry Reservoir Phase 2: 1.5 blllion gal Ion: Jordan Lake Allocation,750 mill Ion gallons Ruth Rouse said that OWASA has traditionally proactively planned. She said that the Cane Creek Reservoir was identified as a water supply before OWASA was formed and came online 20 years afterwards. She said the existing quarry was planned in the 1990's and will not come to fruition until 2030-2035. She said that they have had a Jordan Lake allocation since 1988 but there is no guaranteed way to get the water from the lake so if it is ever needed, there may be no way of accessing it. Slide #7 Jordan Labe later Quality • Hundreds of thousands of people drink treated water from Jordan Lake daily • Reviewed drinking water quality from Cary and Chatham County • Drinking water fromJordan Lake meets all State and federal criteria • Proposed WTP being designed - to remove contaminants of emerging concern 8 Ruth Rouse said that the community has a lot of concern regarding the quality of Jordan Lake. She reviewed the data and stated that it meets all drinking water standards. Slide #8 Process for Narrowing Alternatives • . . All supply and demand None management possibilities AlternativesCroun with F Storm aterr �tvrmwarer potential F SomedemanAtl&r managern-ent F Dt x mand side managennt Best alternatives Indirect potable reuse Qr fl Direct potable rtuse Deep Quarry alternatives M TB Duce-ou--c,_ch Ob Ruth Rouse stated that stakeholders were asked for ideas by a consultant. She said they then identified ideas with potential. She said that the Board directed them to use water quality as the highest priority. She said they looked at long term impact on rates and how flexible the option is to change in the future. She said they also weighed social and environmental analysis. She said that after all of the external review and internal considerations that Jordan Lake came out on top but there is no decision on how that will be accessed. She said that everything they have worked with the Board on is very public facing. 9 Slide #9 199� 2U}u =:�= University Lake:450 million gallons Cane Creek Re5ervoir;3 billion gallons Quirry Reservoir Phase 2: 1.5 btllionvllon; Jordan U ke Allocai on:750 million gallons Ruth Rouse stated that the question remains of how to best access the Jordan Lake Allocation. Slide #10 710MWestern Intake Partnership (WIP) • City of Durham, Chatham County, and Town of Pittsboro • Working since 2014 on regional Adak approach • Plans to build new Drinking Water Treatment Plant • Phase 1; 2031 ■ Phase 1 2050 • OWAS4 beginning discussions with WIP 10 Slide #11 Interests in Western Intake Partnership Discussions • OWASA has access to its Jordan Lake allocation. • We maintain our allocation of Jordan Lake water. • Intake and transmission infrastructure are built to meet OWASKs demands. • Impact on near-term water rates is minimized. • Our working relationships with our utility partners are important to OWASA, and we are committed to maintaining them. • We share with those partners a commitment to providing our customers high quality drinking water. Slide #12 Questions and DiSCUssion • Does the Council or community have any questions on our long-range water supply planning process? • Are there other interests we should include in our discussions with the wIP? • what feedback would you like shared with the OWASA Boa rd of Directors regarding our Long-Range water Supply Plan? • Other? Ruth Rouse rrouse@owasa.org Commissioner Bedford asked if OWASA owns the land where this intake might be built. Ruth Rouse said OWASA owns 125 acres, that was purchased in 1989, for a water treatment plant. Commissioner Bedford asked if it will be appraised at the value to see who will be contributing to the project and value of the land. Ruth Rouse said the board will meet next week and discuss the value of that land and providing direction on how to proceed. Commissioner Bedford said she and Chair Price meet quarterly with OWASA staff. She said that water quality is very important to her. She said if there is no water, the quality does not matter, but thinks water quality is very important. She said that after the water issues in Flint, Michigan and the issues in Pittsboro recently, the public is very concerned about water quality and chemical in the public drinking water. She said that it is important for staff to review the website and documents so they can be advisers to the Board. She said it is a critical decision and that she is glad consultants are being used in the process. 11 Todd Taylor said OWASA shares the same concern for water quality and the Western Intake Partners are the same. He said that water quality is before anything else. He said that the good news is this is a brand-new plant, so will be built with state-of-the-art technology. He said the harder thing is addressing a newly developed or previously unknown chemical. He said that they know about issues of emerging concerns in Jordan Lake, and they are aware of the use of technology that would address those issues. Commissioner Hamilton said that she wants a better understanding of the models that will determine demand. She asked how much growth can happen before more water is needed. She asked what demand-side management is. She asked how much the communities can grow before they need more water. Ruth Rouse said that demand is based on potential growth in Chapel Hill and Carrboro. She said that there was major regional transportation planning that was led by TJCOG that helped determine build out scenarios and the demand side management is based on those models. She said that demand side management helps reduce water those demands. She said models include expanding the reclaimed water system at the university. She said they also look at bundling conservation type approached such as requiring submetering in all multifamily residential developments and requiring EPA water savings as well. She said that some of those either did not cost out or save water. Commissioner Hamilton asked if models account for difference in conservation potential in new vs. old builds. Ruth Rouse said that the demand projections assume demand decreasing due to conservation. Commissioner Greene said the development community and UNC have an interest in expanding the water supply for growth purposes. She asked what OWASA did to reach out to individual consumers — especially those that remember that Cane Creek and the quarry were created so that they would not have to turn to Jordan Lake. She asked how they conduct community engagement because she has not heard many people talking about this. She said that she would like to stay within the current bounds of water use. She asked about viewing the community conversations and comments. She asked what the next steps for future engagement are to reach out to individual consumers before making decisions. She questioned how reliable the TJCOG build-out models are and suggested that OWASA rather work with the Towns of Chapel Hill and Carrboro for those plans. She said that it will be a while before the quarry is online but that 2030 is only 8 years from now. She said that she is skeptical of the next step for Jordan Lake. Ruth Rouse said OWASA did not reach out to broader community but worked with local government staff in Chapel Hill and Carrboro. She said that provided a ton of demand side management ideas. She said that they are doing much more in-depth outreach this time around. She said they will engage advisory boards, they will come to each elected board, they are also planning an event at the Chapel Hill Public Library. She said they will be engaging the Youth Water Academy because the youth will be around in the future. She said there will be a much more extensive community outreach this go around. Todd Taylor said OWASA will also utilize social media for outreach because they want to hear from the community and that a community engagement plan was approved during the last meeting. Commissioner Greene said the state environmental agency said that climate change concern in this area of the country is not draught but flooding. She asked where the data is coming from that shows draught as a major concern. Ruth Rouse said that the global climate change models agree that our area, rain fall will stay the same, but will come as intense storms. She said they are not in agreement on what future looks like for droughts. She said that they must prepare for drought. She said that 12 regarding the TJCOG data, TJCOG coordinated the outreach, but planners from local governments were all part of the model showing the growth that will come into communities. She said that Chapel Hill and Carrboro were very involved in this process. Chair Price said that over the years she has come to understand more of what TJCOG does and while it is hard to estimate, looking at census data and economic development here and surrounding counties, more and more people are coming to NC. She asked if heavy rains really replenish the water tables and aquifers. She suggested OWASA also engage the Chinese School and the Interfaith Food Council, in addition to El Centro and NAACP, regarding the open positions on the OWASA Board of Directors. Commissioner Hamilton asked what percentage of Chapel Hill/Carrboro residences have well water and septic. She asked what would happen if everyone had OWASA water and if that went into the models. Ruth Rouse said the model assumed that the service area would not change. She said that if service areas changed then it would change those models. Todd Taylor said the model is accounting for this as best it can based on zoning for future areas. He said that it is not a huge additional demand. Commissioner Hamilton said it came to mind thinking about potential future flooding and wells becoming unsafe. Chair Price said if there is a significant recharge then some people may need to join the OWASA system. Ruth Rouse said single residential units would not put a huge strain on the system, but larger developments would. Chair Price said they will work to get information out about the available payment plans and thanked OWASA staff for their presentation. 5. Public Hearings None. 6. Regular Agenda None. 7. Reports a. Development Fiscal Impact Study The Board received information on a study and hear a presentation from the consultant TischlerBise, Inc. BACKGROUND: Orange County has informally understood the fiscal impacts of new development and what general land uses provided a net positive or negative revenue and expenditure (cost of services). Studies from over ten years ago made some generalizations that the combined categories of residential (different densities), non-residential (combined office, industrial retail) and agricultural. Results of that generalized study showed residential development cost more in government services than monies received in Tax and other revenue sources, and contrastingly, non-residential and agricultural were net positive in the revenue/expenditure balance. However, this type of study had its limitations because it did not analyze the varied land use types with varying density or intensity, so a new study was commissioned through Tischler- Bise, a national firm with expertise in this research area. This new study provides a higher 13 resolution of analysis with more land use types and by different areas. It should be noted that both studies (past and present) only related to the County revenue/expenditure program and not the cost revenue benefit realized in municipalities. This study could also be modified to include the municipalities at additional expense. This study and its findings do not have a direct relationship in the Unified Development Ordinance (UDO). Whether a project has a net positive or negative is not the basis of an approval or denial but may be considered in some legislative decisions. Julie Herlands of TischlerBise, Inc. will provide a PowerPoint on the findings and address any comments and questions, and County staff will also assist with questions and answers. Craig Benedict, Planning and Inspections Director, reviewed the background information for the item. He said that he is hoping staff will refine this model on an annual basis. Julie Herlands of TischlerBise, Inc. gave the following PowerPoint presentation: Slide #1 Inc Slide #2 Fiscal Impact Analysis in General • Evaluating cash flow to the public sector o Do revenues that are generated from a development cover cost impacts? • Based on a jurisdiction's current level of service—reflected In current budget • Intent is to help achieve planning and fiscal goals by understanding the connection between land use decisions and revenue generationloperating Impacts a Models are built to address specific questions • Fiscalimpact analysis differs from Economic lmpactAnafysis and Municipal Budgeting nkhsch erkise 14 Julie Herlands said that what they are looking at is the cost to serve. She said that not all costs are affected by growth. She said they engaged in a process to see what the pressure points are for the cost to serve. She said they look at this to achieve planning and fiscal goals, and a way to understand those relationships in a way to develop a model that will address questions at hand. She said that this is not an economic development model. Slide #3 Orange County Fiscal Impact Model • Evaluate fiscal impacts of land use changes • Multiple scenarios allow testing and comparing o Propertyvalues c. Timing o Type of land uses • Inform land use decisions and test „what if'alternatives • Plan for short-and long-term operational and capital improvement impacts Tssch� leer Ise Julie Herlands explained that this model has been developed specifically for Orange County and turned over to staff so that they can enter inputs and perform scenarios. Slide #4 Key Assumptions • Orange County Fiscal Year 201 9 Adapted Budget used to develop the initial model • Revenues and Costs to Orange County are modeled o General Fund,Special Revenue Funds,Fire Distriots,schools.(County- funded portion) o Capital expenditures for development's share of expanded facilities • Current dollars are used to get a snapshot result (no inflation assumed) • Model reflects location-specific features: Values, school district, fire district, park district TlschlerBlse Julie Herlands said that the TischlerBise model was based on the FY 2020 budget and was proportional to the project 15 Slide #5 Ivey Assumptions: Residential Default Prototypes Avg assessed JWL.TYw.4Je Perademper YNlliez TdpJLdl ghxpem 5,dnr ydir 4a1.r Per.Inle 1JrLre lJ] Lruraeam laem*xli] O..Irnd. 1111 rM1 "Iderlual land Use Pm+ n Per L`H r mld J MM bYFi Sn1jo Famly:unircbrWcww Drango1Wn[yllmprowiD 5495.3E2 5IL95.000 23fi 9410 507E 049015 SInpe Famer:Unlr*ara ved Drwge CaunLy QJnirnwmed l $1D.200 su.o00 13.00 ❑no 11110 1100 005 A r a 5429.758 5L30.DN 2v 04V 504 VM DESsirbmr:HSMsa Ompdl KOZ50C 51911.000 4PJ 090 090 000415 51r4a a Famer:Chm 114[VCvre,.]ra Omanaredl 556+,683 $581}800 2.62 11" 511x 1134ChUr. 51r4o eF]mhy:Chy 11­1 rVQrr*ao OJnmrrtndl 5.55.1DO 51EJ3.DW 11EU a00 a0a DOD CxCCS Cando-Unl4[arearamd Ckarge Caar[v nmo-rt y,edl 5 21fm7w SHIM L ED 590 5an 0 27 415 {onto-Ni166xira.WJ.Ilfnpro.cn} so 5a L i9 .3a 504 a L7 46 Condo-Chap W rli4'Carrho-o lrn Fl Wl i2fi401fi $170'am L.79 Sfi5 Sax 4L6 CnCCS M,Idri-ily ArAL uo:.corParamJ 4rJl11p Couoryllmprowrp 5.21'7i3 $130.0m L.fiG Sa0 W% 417 005 hAVIUlrmlk Al s 1I11W.yq.]jp llmvru eOi 56r;AEIS 570.0m LAS {30 Sax 11H 005 RAVOlemily!loss CNwH w"VCFnr4are Ilrrara+M 1 52a9.314 51W.Lga L 79 Sfi5 54sF a JB CxCCS haenL'L[arMudmrperr 1X11n[addrarrdOra rCaLnsy{YnMV1ld1 52t6.iiE 52efi.Rla 225 9a0 51J1 0524C5 MaodYrurW nom�VJrL.Nllshomr�h llffprW W} I 5::LRZZSI 5115MC 220 0401 1.11 0.5246 Mao.tYsurW NomePtk ChapgHil2Caohaopmprawal $0 2.39 @30 50%1 a76CnCC€ fJl Gvrge{ann J sse'loa'dFnd a oesJedo-JLre a r Ndsxry6r[n^'rF iW YokJ r.roq+hr1wn04�"rJ Je r!�'ar.7w le zb.sl!wMMmJ{5 heP7 r31 vS{era.a p y-,:0 6,re of mars oogom f.Prxx+s M1'JEL t01] +a)Tn.�,.M odllotra m..l.mr.t.h..m.rkr.h�ri.r.m4..a emr.u,rsn rn.�e�nmy rbl"pe -0ea u hdk rawWi5 Pd+rwxeAlrwWMmr20d9 Surt..6mpr i.1.2r(I[C'r M.M.. TTsch� leer ise Julie Herlands said that the model makes distinction between single family and multifamily developments. Slide #6 An.w—d J4.*lu.tl. ernp.mo KeyWI.W rnP T1lo hdl wdars.1y.� adFr r.d mP ITE G,Ode YW.P.r 3µ WW.P.r l4R Wr 3d=3µ P r],ma 5µ +l ,r IP . pI FWMes*m1U1 L]rd 4heArdlmod5 R.IU I.r."M lil FLVI FL C-9 FMV%(Mg Sq FL n.de:LrrRnrport4a CF.r�.mrq'dnpv..a1 JLap $L]a ] sT. s Laa. ]+n rID Assumptions. ANZA:rrr+OnxIgledCa r{a,r[,rlu no-n.rd' 5e6J 5e6 2 33. L Jt12 SaP nme:MEmr—jh lrmn­Il ILMM $La]M ]M V.n sw L ]+n Pm An]+:MFJgdrd, 14r.m[rd•ed1 526 521 2 33, L J112 BM Nonresidential e.L.e:9npr Ml C.rrmm ftp....0 $L57 %!7 ] 37. L 7+73 LID Almal:O.][d-WO-4]m lu+`r.a dl in 525 2 PA L ' 1a 12 LN Default afly anrmpv.btl ar..l.o.nry l"r-11 $L16 $L]T ] 0. L + 7M OMM u-N""Ito G-W le'C nN M+aWrv'71 537 ET 536 Dq 259 !?.IL LDW LE3 11A �+ af-nehb.j.dr.W—,U $LFP aa$2 ] 0. L + 71d Prototypes CMM xJabxa'$I'L—drOvea smi 53a 2V1 g. L d.Bl 3LO df.v d.MIrYUdrbr.jkMn d1 U33 M U33 ]PY k LON J FY nd dhr:O..pl my� .Iu.n ..) $W. $i ]0 PPI ee'F L] i E 71.0 1rd,9P'Wl:unNC waied pa+lrCo-,m ramy[r,edl 51T U 535 J B e_ L 2 AS 31k 1rA,":umr.v�. tlarwUm Cyrly lur.mpu.Q1 $34 $34 ] i. LMS ] ILa 1nd,m'L9:.'Ist-p,Ihhpmorarepl 5Bb M 5B J 4 L 2 Lq 3L0 Ird.&Ld:Hdbb.whlUr.r.p..d. $]S+] $35 ]m J. L 7 ]Id 1rduWL9:ChZMI"IIlLY63n)l.*ur El U37J 523] J 4 L 2 31A 1r4uWL9:Ch]o5 wIIMY63n)l41mom•rd1 5Ln 50S ] 4 L 2 31A Iwlhrlpnr umrvp.nk.tlarag.C..11sd.1p...Q1 $LW P a 36 L ]a] 5]415ad lr6idmmr41 ur.n{[.11[.afed r{p„r.14r.rvo-+a.ed1 5JaW 50 11 M L Jal KOMO In.LLrmr.r xeh:.j.dr.Prv. %M3 a 76 ! L ]P] 57415E 1r61 W,anal x]rsLp pt,+ramnail 52t EO a 2Ea L Jal 5MS?O I rohWmnr ChM lneV'r .lrrpra lj 4 W a 1 L 1 h79,14nal Oaoe]xJVCarh+xo-IUr M-10 5La3. 5RDM RM JaJ 52N53q IXI d'f.[e izwr..+w.ecyimrocoeeluo-•wra+cae.4'r~x W�raWc o-wY+o4Mahrt+�`+sera searo-nmrrtc w-1..o+�11aS'!Wya ho-eu.+rwwtirezo-+arscu W L.aL..r+a.r.�ux..sff.m�4.rsw.rl�...p mrR rrL�uF T5C�1 1 #Uarm. ...,�mdLmmrarP... V.j-.ft M,�Jd dr—In.r *—V FwoJe oaaiJ.r,unlemr .4�+'a.feao-K>w .. 4xvramL.mMIF fSr hd.'Nr. Julie Herlands said that the model also distinguishes between retail, office, industrial, and institutional for non-residential categories. 16 Slide #7 loop Example: Fiscal Impact of Residential Development in Unincorporated County • 20 Housing Units a Single Family o Condos o Multifamily • Location- Unincorporated County • Schools- Orange County Schools • Fire: Orange Rural Fire • Parrs: Cheeks/Hillsborough District Park Tisch erE Ise - i.nxxM. Slide #8 Example. ScENIL IO c(]mp"IYJMS RESIDENTIAL IN UMINCURPURUEd CUUNTY Residential in /'� ftmk tzesm Vrds Unbrcl 3oer�no3�}P ccda Wtw 8mvidwi;29 MEUnIh;Urir[�I nlll €3rciyYEELchekusbiet L�„nCirr sJFi�IL P9A ff�I LL� 1YflPrllWAb= Iuy�n�yty: RERIMWIAL; f26r2wNI:�hGak.ti. ;ZLmr, :rGmrtj ;Xlr_PNarmw6r-rt.' Summary m a F rc as ad A rk L Oran Rural G„` Aral 4ranCH Ruh Parr lu"t Oee kzlNM Ebee%elHlle6aa h Chneb IHFdbarw HOUSING UNITS }8 POPLUTION fl 3Q 32 EMWUIMr4T 3 31 HOMESIDffiTULL:XWARE FEET G fl EORS P O TESIPENTVL TAME PROPERTY Y.0 E i7.2h'r,DM WORM WNRESCENTALTM MLEPf OMP MURE TGETJR TAMRLEIPROPIR"VAILUE 59 9D3,M 1 57.24P0.tl M"'641fri4�4 +rater POR{ofW_�TPL_'.OAT lelZ�1d_bi4MP4a� r-�—hI g TIs is Julie Herlands then showed how the summary snapshot would look like for information sharing. 17 Slide #9 rl C IY'I�}l UFHCAL r�iarAC z&%w Com rl bWItnuit F idential Ora tau fscalWwactModel AES+IbNTIALINirbMWORh�AAT eb5P�tY �FY4M4 F-*Marle 1;24=WR— Un&: S{en}rIO 3:2D M r Unit€; in U n i n . Llnirte.;OCS;ttengrRural Unlnr;;OC$;Orange Rural Urrrx.;Ot#;OrangrRural Fire;Meek€JHIIIs PwH Flrej C>heeHVHllls PstB Fire;C1e#€)H:II€Pedk County: {a FarF bistrict -District 1%trict rr.,d TOMJ Fiscal iQTUP:GwM1ES s11WIFM2 sa36,2�?2 ss22,942 Results +++ } + TOTAL EXPEND"RE5 51j5D13M 569d,930 569d930 Fe ults NsrMCAiFWAff $21 $11,11 ialx¢3�1 M'OPEL VEAS 4'+'f raenemr Pia{e Carts rr2Pl9 PriP,FCF 1f4Fti' rest RevoLN r237im 00FDAM. l21)12dMr Results are 20-Year Cumulative Totals Tschlerbise Julie Herlands said that they do not include inflationary factors in the 20-year total model. She said that the output is shown in current dollars. She said that is a reason that an annual update of the model is important. Slide #10 Example: Residential in Unin . County: Fiscal Results Average Annual 120-Year)Net Fiscal Impacts Orange[utlnty Fiscal Impa a Ana lysis r #ss1 03M Vim tw21) IF keen-is M SFI!UniLs;%Mini-OCS;Oracle Rwal F'e;CheeksMlle Park DhL-id ■Scenorra 2:MCando Unhs:Uninr.;0d,GrarerW.ral Fre;Cheeks(HiIts Paildistnra s$rr wrap 3!Mk6 UnitF'UnIrK.;10[5;-(rjrp RyraI F arc;{hgrl�,rHMl Fyrk(hirer Tisch else to t hw.. 18 Slide #11 Example: Residential in Uninc. County: FiSGal Results Annual Nets=iscal im pacts(Ail Funds} OrangeCaunty Fiscal lmpactAnalysis „ �n 55 Ews t } 3 4 S 6 2 L 9 t0 U kr B 3s 35 A 37 M i9 n 5kr #F� �SiUI #�51 —SCl Wo 1.26 SFO Witm kki .;MS;Groje Furid Fire:CN*6Mlll5 Park MArloc Sl+IlFA6�:�D Wr�00 Uoh€:U+':r+e,;OLS;0+#'fit Rvr#I Fire;CMeWHi4Ps+k01€fkT —SS�ln1.iO3:20 Y.1F UoiSe Unlaa,.P[S:Crane Nwel Firs;ChPPklkfll€Rgii QiStriSS Tlsch erlse Slide #12 loop Example: Fiscal Impact of Nonresidential Development in U nin . Counter • Nonresidential Sample o 100.0DO sf retail o 50,DOD sf office o 200,000 sf industrial * Location: Unincorporated Counter Schools: NIA • Fire: Orange Rural Fire • Parks: W Tischler8ise 19 Slide #13 loop PROJ ECT SUMMARY Example:i' SCENARIO COMPARISONS NONRESIDENTIAL IN UNINCORPORATED-COUNTY Nonr id. in 1 &[ fflaV i00Amsr immwrD=wmd Sunda 3!2MA001 U1 1l 1r�/'► Retail;O 4N F nra M; kc unkw_4� VmMb1mh unirtc.; ninL. orana RurM FtG ormw lwmllkw CCS;C- qe Sdal y+� { fkl Xk &Pack F# [ County:nty: f�r.o nrtn.rmow+e S•irar r�;r r r7urta lwhtw `,1�Y��1+� RE516PfrIAI� G+owrt,' Gro.CN Summary 1 1 f 1 1 G II Linkm al we Unlnr.C& Unlnc Ud idr d MdAris GCS 8{S OCS FTrQDHmrkn 01a aural Bra IWraI �a /rural Pwkuleast [hedrs H ihsdrs NII h [hseii NlMkarvu RMING UNM l I4 0 POPUATI ON U01 U NONKMWNTFAL 9WW FEET SOOAOP 3 P Pelt. Im 149 32fi ROWLISIDEW16LT f irZdpF]kM wlaalE b ICI NOtiPE',ILErRIa1 TAY#lE'RO'ERTy'Valt.E $J3104A44 $163 r+ TOTALTAKMU PRORRTY VALUE 9J3190AOP $363 P T C �S@ .0"c eiki k frrow.&o Ve irV.�F f4bEix Ihf�£Tt Lwr ts_kK� i++Acr•aH W■DAW. ir'JVlwY Julie Herlands said that the key indicators here are jobs created and total taxable property values. Slide #14 Example: WTRSCAtWPACT.ZO-Year CumiuMefvePew& CUMULATN#-546"01HO Compiri*CA* Ora mCau ReollmpaatMadsl vaNR!#16EFRIX.iI#rUHIFJ[bkfb"I,�tTlbCOUWY Nonre fd. in #CINAMO Sos�rlolrid8,408sftEsdllr 3ouvrlolrSd,00d�OfFioi So�asio+Jr1.6GAm Un i n . 4nlne;4G5;9ftnpr Rt+tl 4nln OCS;4nitpr Rw�l MkWill,LMMp,;4C5; FIMMmkoMisFork Me;[hasW;Mlllspuk OrsnipALwolPIM County: Catippry 4Ip4rIR 11L Plana Onak HIIIaP*Ik4lairlal. �+ GSvnd Jataf Fiscal TQTASREYEWLR6 57,€AA554 $L-W7.JBB $3`42&127 TOTAIMPENDITURPS $1.70$9�96 $1,084,W $2._M.136 Results NIEf RSCAL IMIPALT $6,139,566 $H%2AI $SRS,WP AaOAEL}4 QK. F;k+rmr:Otsa9r Co f�M Fr�prg s'A�,'FC F�fl'F� re�_� ^�IMNCmrir€hnrWpr rtrn Results are 20-Year Cumulative Totals TIcfll Se 14 Julie Herlands noted that all three options have positive fiscal impacts. 20 Slide #15 loop Example: Retail in Unine. County: Fiscal Results AnnLraI Net Fiscal Impacts(A11 Funds) Orange County Fiscal Impart Analysis 5M5 limo Baas f slur sws saal 53M Sim 5JA 5�av G.x 1 7 ] f 5 6 7 A 9 a0 ]L li L1 I4 Lx ]6 17 U 31 N rtr —$S*f1*+fO1:J1MWOsr 4rell!UninCc W;Pr*^R"I FAr Ch**kkHlK Rork piWC4 Tisch leer Ise ,{ Slide #16 Example: Office and Industrial in Unin . County: Fiscal Results Annual Net FiscaI Impacts(All Funds) Orange Cau my Fisca I I mpa ct Analysis s+a saa soli 5� $sx �>D #x n.r } 1 i 5 M1 ] a 4 sD II I} L1 Ii 15 II I] I I9 ]0 IS3fY"' IS 141 —Stem 3:SU.RGL3 sfOfflm:VnInL.:M:dv=Ftml Fir:CheekslHllls Pxk D*rlrk /�}� —SLbnlre 3:zmxw Lr h wgridi.Lk:nc;8[3r Qe3ftp R.W fury;CK"kMdK Palk OW PA T�s4rri se 16 21 Slide #17 Wrap Up General findings, o Nonresidential at default value assumptions typica I ly generates positive fiscal results o Retail generates the highest positive fiscal results of nonresidential land uses o Certain residential development at high enough values generates positive fiscal results • The model should be viewed as a tool o Results and findings do not have a direct relationship in the UDO • One piece of information among many to evaluate a project o Other non-fiscal factors should be considered when making land use decisions such as, job creation,jobs-housing balanceleommute times,economic benefit of local spending from increased income • Q&A Tisch lerE Julie Herlands said there are many other factors besides the model that should be taken into consideration when determining land uses. Commissioner Hamilton said she appreciates the last slide highlighting that the model is only one piece of information that goes into decision-making and is limited to fiscal impact. She asked how jobs are factored in the model capture for cost and revenue. Julie Herlands said there are services within the county purview of services that are provided to the non-residential sector. She said that some cost factors are driven by the presence of jobs. She said that it becomes a demand generator that then captures the effect of customers. She said that public safety is an example of a cost. She said there is a portion of costs and revenues that are generated and driven by employment growth. Commissioner Hamilton said it sounds like a broad category, since there are different types of businesses and employment. She asked how they can be sure the variable is accurately capturing the cost. Julie Herlands gave a public safety example to answer Commissioner Hamilton's question. She said that the law enforcement side includes calls for service for residential and non-residential development. She said those numbers are then used to estimate demand based on vehicle trips that are generated today. She said that the model assumes that these will continue in the future. Commissioner Hamilton asked how the commissioners could be sure this model creates coefficients that lead to a model that fits well. Julie Herlands said the intent is not to get an output/dollar amount someone is costing the county. She said it is the relationship between the revenues generated from the land use and the consumption of services. She said that part of this is engaging in a process with service providers to understand where the pressure points are. She said not every cost is affected by development. She gave examples of service calls based on type of land use and how that develops an average cost estimate. Craig Benedict said that he did previous work like this in Florida, and they had certain general assumptions for costs of service by department. He said those model inputs were then tested against actuals. He said they asked the police department if they were responding to the new developments at the same rate that they had assumed when they started the program. He said that they found out that the newer, multifamily, and higher end multifamily did not have as many police calls for service as had been estimated. He said they also found that the school 22 impact was less than they had predicted for those same developments. He said this data collection allowed them to fine-tune the program specially for the multifamily developments. He said they found out that newer multifamily developments had a net positive. He said they also checked their model assumptions against actuals with industrial development, as well. He said they plan to continue to do the same with this model. Chair Price asked how long before the fine-tuning is done. She asked if the findings from checking the model applied across the board in the future, or only the one location where it is found. Craig said the model starts out with generalizations and is fine-tuned on a case-by-case basis. Chair Price asked if TischlerBise used lessons learned from other locations in modeling for Orange County, or if it was the standard model. Julie Herlands said the model is built specifically for the Orange County community. She said that the data has become better and to get to distinction between sizes of multifamily units has been refined as data has become available. She said that she expects Orange County's model will be updated annually by staff. She said that any assumptions and averages in the model can be overwritten as more data becomes available. Chair Price asked about the zeros listed under the key assumptions in the residential model. Julie Herlands said at the time, there was a gap in that data, but staff can put that information in as it becomes available. Chair Price said she understood the use of general data and then each user will adjust as actual data becomes available. She said she was curious about national or regional trends being used in the beginning. She asked about the pre-development shown. Julie Herlands said the undeveloped lot is for doing a pre-development to after development scenario. Commissioner Bedford said some recent developments in the county have been warehousing and logistics. She asked how this tool could be used to establish county costs for this type of development vs. revenue. She said she thinks this could be a different use than the commercial that has been shown. She said it would be interesting to be able to use this tool for those uses. Julie Herlands said warehouses have a different set of characteristics and parameters can be directly entered into the model. She said that the trips to and from factor into the public safety part of the equation because there's potentially increased vehicle accidents on roads with increased traffic. She said that it does not correlate to road maintenance costs but does correlate to public safety. She said the county can certainly evaluate and test those types of uses. Commissioner Fowler asked how the planning department is using this tool right now. Craig Benedict said that this is not a direct requirement of the unified development ordinance, but it can be used to understand the value of land uses. He said the numbers show that retail generates nine times more revenue than industrial or office. He said this can be used to assist in making legislative and economic development decisions. Commissioner Fowler asked if retail includes food, even though it is taxed at a lower rate. Craig said it is combined in the same category as grocery stores and retail. Commissioner Fowler said the model gives an idea of government spending but not necessarily what's best for the community. She said they know there is a need for affordable housing. Bonnie Hammersley said this tool is available and staff will begin to use it as new projects come in. She said they may even look at past projects and plug into the model to 23 monitor them. She said that it is important to recognize that this is a tool to use in combination with other information. She said that it all will work together. She said that she knows that any decision must include social justice, environmental impacts, and fiscal impacts. She said that as they bring projects forward, they will include this data. Chair Price asked if the model can be adjusted to consider changes in lifestyles since pandemic, including types of jobs and how people are working. Julie Herlands said that it can be and that as behaviors start to evolve, the market will change, and the data can be updated to reflect those behaviors. She said that since sales tax collections have changed, and as they continue to change, the data will continue to evolve. b. Long-Term Financial Planning Operating and Debt Models The Board received and reviewed information on the two County financial models — 1) Operating Model and 2) Debt Model — that the Finance and Administrative Services Department utilizes in providing forecasts of revenues and expenditures to the County Manager, Deputy Manager and the subsequent Manager's Recommended Budget each year to the Board. BACKGROUND: The County's use of a Long-Term Financial Models was first implemented as part of the FY 2018-19 Budget Development Cycle. As noted in the attachment, Long-Term Financial Planning provides local governments an important resource in ascertaining the impact of changes in economic conditions, recessions and various spending scenarios. Bond Rating Agencies and the Government Finance Officers Association consider Long-Term Financial Planning to be an integral best practice for a local government to maintain financial resiliency. Both the Operating and Debt Models were instrumental in assisting the County through the COVID Recession and maintaining the Board Adopted Unassigned Fund Balance Policy of 16%. County staff regularly uses these two models to formulate recommendations on both the Operating Budget and Capital Investment Plan. Gary Donaldson, Chief Financial Officer, reviewed the background information for this item and gave the following PowerPoint presentation: Slide #1 ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA Long-Term Operating and Debt Models Gary Donaldson, Chief Financial Officer February 17, 2022 24 Slide #2 Background • 2017-Long Term Operating Model - Operating Model first used for FY 2018-19 Budget Development - Resource and modeling tool to determine Revenue and Expenditures under various economic conditions and scenarios - Guided County through COVID Recession - Maintained Unassigned Fund Balance Levels at 16%Policy • 2018-1-ong Term Oebt Model - Used to determine required tax rates to support Referendum Debtand other Capital Investment Plan projects - Integrates key Operating Model factors and policies;Assessed Valuation(fax Base)Growth,Value of One Penny,Debt Service as Percentage of Revenues,Total Tax-Supported Debt as Percentage of Assessed Value - Sensitivity Analyses Functiona lity ORANGE COUNTY NOFM C CAROLINA Slide #3 OPERATING MODEL ORANGE COUNTY NOFM I CAROLINA Slide #4 MnniCasr.Annual Forecasting Model • Create baseline andaltemativerevenueandspendingforecasts- more than 100 possible scenarios • Analyze historic trends and correlations between economic,financial and operating data • Test impact of assumptions and proposed initiatives on projected fund balances ORANGE COUNTY .13OF 9I CAPOLSNA 25 Gary Donaldson said that these are GFOA sponsored and recommended models. He said that they own and utilize the models. He said that both models are dynamic and used about two-thirds of the fiscal year Slide #5 Detailed Historical Data a1Jlr _ x1x 310 r . x am m` x alir aa� x1w as_ m1 i4+VORW I>WI)�tl malrL]tl U&MM 19 mo x4x4m w4mm UWW 1LN"I ? W LZARM MW=EMW .:r ffrg-rmr 1i4S1 '2FIZW ICJ*ci imLi:4 'z°w I4mm m3 .,m 11 m[15 ICJ�L'+1 Wivin 74JAIii1 1}lsiCV'} 51 ?2WV f14LI3 W:Ul? 'FILV IILTAM lDOW Wlik,a IOAW _U07dlII ILP6W 16LAk7 ;L1Mlld k.3r:iE x.: SL9M l65i5 aml Sim G1K U, 4F1FL 12V *2xI 95J2f IM i41V1 'W h L}IA 104Md 49S 9 L.—S LAW 4i0 W LOLM, 'AM kgklli Lu15 I*W JJ A� iOF 10 -9�IEu PjW 0AA &,In Mlll IRON aua iso ,haa }IL!a 114M} Pkr9 JLIILY V W Y,I. L4I — Y1{dW -j. }RI4 i4,IN J X }ISSN MD n+.r 'GVAor4 ISIMM ILUV11 71AL41 WM.+'7F win RAW SHIM; AWAM APLRE a;WW J1J1f3M RMLN SE rtof1!M 9AM i IAMI M-W €W LWJiO SI A 9S74u5 J56M IMIAN 16.741M 2JIM Il WKI-f VLNEO SO W?Xl 4aTb WR fy—U LaFM IWJP2 ],R71,J 7/kUEI t 41N M*O '00K11U Salo 1-UM 1i74n1 -Wia JMJM {+79,91' WM 1J4i4 VKW 4Lr W &%4,'6J klWk R+OY.IIM MM lakwrl 00 " Lkm iall ,rm InjM Ig1R xrW ?gm 11iXG Z1'Di3Ijj%WIKJIN 71411K fWPI 4kw MYA IAN 7r11JL1 MrA LMW UM MA 4o443 IWI& -� LMAMF MAIM tLaw LL1C W nAIm 2 Nim e.MLK AQKUu HALM ILIIS7M M.LZ XxLW IfthmVIKA1 12LUA IWJ?d :Q".. I2NNU LkXVk *UW 14tS69Lr 3J-" L1i4>ii 4a1176 9J" llal Y'Xx4ka1'1 ■N63 *AD 9VAd xl im 7O& IN& LAda l ljcl0I kf4kW i•WIM I-kow OWU ]L�MGiWDIXTl-V i,f m {ES,,H 3,uA1 ijum k,-VP jWm Lgirm imRm ifirNr i,4ii I�W 1.16i}R 21,7�1wSvn',oa:alwn, 01Y WtW W;N i1mY 49M Wlpl CH 1W LIM IIL721 IMM MH Z WFvi A14N 4;1W 1i13C SkWl A99 6LM MW 111.194 11W }Hk1 IRti1 TMM 21QVA9 11r&W 1I611 pW JSYIII y.127 W.0 jnAr 3oe ryr} epA; NSA Ma uypi uh«�Rh8td 111lYfl+l Lt21 LkfEL E411 em 41k kY+ jhht 111Syi MM JUA mflt.Y�l71F41M1110h1 T•iPl ILMM vkS Jk+ 14W XOM nL,L MM MAP mrm MP -Ama ORANGE COUNTY T YOFM r C.AROLINA Gary Donaldson said that the historical data allows analysis of trends and provides basis for future scenarios. He said that this allows for a more collaborative output. Slide #6 Long-Terra Financial Model QUERAL FUM]SLEWARe FORECAST ArwM OMtlw11 It71+111w trc4otioa frorfe714P trqprlia Mgioad 2MI-11 MI-22 021R2 21]IMM 2=-24 2XA-21 2026CR jiaTr0g*Wdl fropwr TAX 11A# i7'nMIN 14M 167.21, il0,2 1"$ M 02 7WSTx 42-1 �92 82-70 W-8ES AEMS S7&S SR412 NgOW WAN 25373 1 2" 1$Aa 17A 11L41O 902 j$ZT chmg TWS AO, 11382 12147* 12-74 12-8 12Z12.M ,SA22 OUWR+ x 1579 1,401 1-742 1407 IM4 1a2 4A2 Trx%haln 7Al1 PS !0 r0 76 75 r0 16fI ham CIP 0 a 0 0 a A aF FUW Ralan[i }BE# 21R10 M* 2 BM 2-'AD Talal PornnWs 24#-1 I6 240 762 2111Wa 2154M2 znm 2fi-0 Bll 27GAI0 Cwarnw7 $wA*i4 1301 1+,175 ,01i11 %A20 HIM %wo >; x G§nW tG0l m+IM IWI% 10,277 in, 10308 11.W4 ii,810 I= F1W0 Oaf" 27-iRF 28 E24 27A67 2KM 30,872 4-rM6 8tme 1111 W$*vice* 3001 :$:"L +OML 41 i+2 4UM 40.015 4404 EWratlm 32-831 98,8}i HISI 9 B6.L88 101,E61 IK174 1137-164 ftg4 t Ox kr 16-M 12.8K 1A708 M42 15.1%4 18,RF1 IAj22 N*fr D"MmniM11i1 - - - - - - - Poct-ARPA ExpMKlrl s 0 1.ia0 I.M i,B7O 1.6a0 Do"Si & 3LUE14 48.M7 -0LL168 SUES Si,-0t1 37,847 88.i78 T+a1*"OLR 05" ,,0" rsm 1J127 LOU 2,44 2,5" ORN ImgaLtT,CW 0 21E 761E 827 *21 iS t N4 .. Kalil Tc4A,4% LIf04 2WJ1ffi 24*. 2 21ILM 203=2 2%17O LF.M Tr2A1! NWAmmlFrJEW #-i73 [0M �M {In 0 M {13iIn 6 1000{6 0 0 A 0 ,.44 iNiM10F0 ORANGE COUNTY h34R71 r 47AROLINA 26 Gary Donaldson said that the model can go out over 10 years, but that is typically as far out as it is used. Slide #7 Long-Term Financial Model GUNERAL FIB{,}SAVAARY POST ,duel algr r r Ellkm d Piet Im Prai—Ad Praj cD" Proi-lei ROOD-21 RORA-22 20gi-2g RM-2: ROV-2L 202L.25 802526 Elm ThoutardiI P/apany 7rr IMM 177562 179224 1e3D39 1e7219 V9MN 15"N S414f 7aa 52102 a252 N502 S5S57 S6AR5 J7.90 )9.)12 Inlbrgwrnmm W 25.173 11227 1959 17953 1EAla IKM 190H lhrgm Yy%aide■ 11_Tm .7a 1239! 12593 12920 13.171 I N Crl`e.He4e 1579 if01 1IN 1A07 1A14 1Apr iM Trani ion In 7J'91 75 9d 75 75 75 75 pawawe*ft wCP 0 - 0 0 0 0 oFFundg4ienoe iaW g500 R3W 2300 ?3w 7 i i i i i11 Pricrrrl 5ari'lau 71-68i 77911 PH1, 7e1B1 eu e295T ,14 0"rmfir 35A74 34521 34J63 3797T 3e.Tur 41L A5T 41210 PorarryCapdg1 77C M 10) 0i W RS M Long Range Cgpiale Whi 33 N JaD27 WD27 ME 3L421 3736 3&BTG E�'icdib- 69Air 90205 90205 1"33 1"A "JW 101N4 C.0r-W.49ClherAgonaia RAW 1373 27M lin 1.7Td 1.773 1,373 Im TranlfemTo 6,3RT IJW 7im 12V Rim RA81 p,30e1 B.f}.i 71dfj�mrar` {Asiel OLM Im aci Yam C1 d 211 MG e2r e31 7 i i IIr J4ar.ilNw rrp� L173 Idl NI 1P1 d ('31 11219) Ba+enorb Bud aL ORANGE COUNTY r,a=[CARGL[NA Gary Donaldson said that regarding personnel, they are looking at competitive staff retention and this has been built into the model. He said that this is a no recession model and shows sales tax is at 3.6% growth and a natural growth of 2% for property tax. Slide #8 Forecast Assumptions Tab .71 ORANGE COUNTY Y+:4111T]L CAPOL[NA 27 Gary Donaldson said that the model allows various assumptions to be input and customized. He said that it allows flexibility in terms of looking at revenue assumptions. Slide #9 Detailed Pr p rt r Tax Modeling MIA I 2G12E 1 2L72lt 1 ih11P A4-RE9LJKFt70NALX13RP IBU09ET3 H�MMSS,U4 WA fATN1,703 2 670 74 597 21 9fi S1 8B9 1L 72 B60 ii PERCENT CkMGE LS9M S3.lk% 2.901E L 3A9% AY-MOT OR'EhCLE O!+JOGET] i, DS,376,8k L,271"I B8 19fi BL0 I.M. Bfi 7Ifi L 37 i43 i PEACENTCKV4GE 190% •L.42% 1.90M I 1.9L1% b4-TOTAL 19.14E-3d2.V 21.739.530.79Y 22.11432L.14T 22.E-17.R37.On 23.07R163992 PER.CEIYTGhW9E IN AV 102k Y2.ffix 2.08x 100% MON L11REIT TA%RATE IPER$YT6AVJ ti8679 M&M O.Bi87 CLM2 DAM? PCF REVAL TM RbTE P.7SLTF TM96TE FROM CEST P.030P OLUM51 A002S TA R ATE 13R OPERATIfAIS NEW TAX RATE C B-0) 0.92Y2 VA23? DA12217 MACEIYTCHM13E IN TAX RATE (LOGk .S.67% (F.31N EL30% ik00% CURRENT L,EVf QREBLtP R3A-ORPl 156229.514 L67.579MO 171A53.2Y2 573.614E-7i 17R92296B iII RR ENTLIEVe ISCLE) 1Y.211&72 Lk4&L;379 L-BAU.1t5 io%W203 L1,115p71 TOTAL CLAAf NT LEVY Y67 7 WS :7790:5N i91 527 LB6 E0 663 018 1 GOLLE" NELATE*bEU T£RW-ORP) 9EL70k 98..7OK 49.20k 99.28 TB.lOhL GOLLECTI4N RATE{LEIhUEQ 99.301E 93.40'Y Sek0011 99.9G SaT.TO7L COLLEC710NSIRE,4�pE0.3fC4L4P� 15A.14R53Y Lfi5.i4L.L39 17RA@L.13, LT-0.RL1658 177.E-4L5@5 GO L.,T10N€I4 FHIELL�SI 1Y,Y7�.1Yd hG,339A8A L-0A3L,673 ia.67,316 LiBMAS6 TOTeL CURRENTMLECTIMS IE5373LI61 L7 119 542 1l0.7L3.2S9 104MRS73 1SR5NA51 REVENUE PE0.ONE CENT LEY' LA 06,4, ;UI6$BL 2"AMC 2,21#fii2 41B9$Oi ORANGE COUNTY T R711 CARGLINA Slide #10 Current Year Estimate Tab 9FVEFA SAATi 7RSN1FA7gN OL.PR4FERD TAN-CUFNfNT LtWi,9L4 BLN kKAX32i EA7% l33,Y77,U31 BSA% B3.Sk M&AMA&I i67�178 Jfid U6 02. 0TOR UFiRUES-ILRENT �isl.dd5 &2% W7em1 530% 5691�7 569% St.Tlk Sxhr T Li'69r31 WRAi66 010L-CR09S RVEiPFS OUt SIO% SWE 5d6% 3iXM 431% 5Y.6k 47p54 9}y35 F2,4m 03.92-4TRER TAXES ELM-7251% Ena 307% J.2" 33.7% 29.RM 439i 16.9L0 25RSO M-DELINO.UENTMES ODE573 FLO% 7A5VW E-7.7% L955T33 539% 57.7% S91M LE43J @ 1.778000 RS-e1+NV1TM 17.112 5R3% SR25!' 5L7% 77 E-07 99A% 50.d% d5AA SR395 YE-7.P00 %6ARTIUEN 4WA1 53 IE316 3-UX561 3L 65%L% 3z4&7 1 18.0k 35 L7�56r315 Lk7fi 12 055 07ARMCUAD kB5Kw 1373� 2.0Bi,199 143% 2,24E DM 39.7% M.1k IjEur Y Lb9LT= ig19L�fii9 OSARTICLE42 077AI 36.21L WAS 3LO% L,63ZFAI 3!GA% 17.9k UMS36 F;I0?,6iB d$BQ363 ORANGE COUNTY NOWTI I CAROLIN T Gary Donaldson said that these estimates help compare property tax collection year to year. 28 Slide #11 Monthly Carl hfl w Model ORANGE COUNTY NOFM I CAROLINA Slide #12 Synergies with other Models • work with Vendor to create interfaces from other models • Operating impacts from Capital Improvement Plan Database • Debt expenses and Property Tax required increases from Debt Model ORANGE COUNTY 140FM I CAROLINA Commissioner Bedford asked how CARES and ARPA funding will be worked into future forecasting. Gary Donaldson said it has been taken out of the general fund and is in its own fund to keep separate for forecasting purposes. Commissioner Richards asked if there is a meeting when the Board gets to decide what the underlying assumptions are. 29 Gary Donaldson said that the manager's presentation will go through key assumptions. He said that for sales tax, estimate reports come out in March, and is tested against our own model. Bonnie Hammersley said that she is required to recommend a budget to the commissioners per state law and will provide a preview of the assumptions she is using for the budget. She said that after the presentation of the budget, commissioners may make amendments to the budget. She said that most assumptions will come from this model and that it has been shown to be extremely accurate. She said that the only time it was not was during the current year when the county didn't anticipate the growth in sales tax due to the pandemic. Slide #13 DEBT MODEL ORANGE COUNTY NQFM[CARDLIN A Slide #14 Capital Funding Policies Current Policy Debt PollcLes Incorporated In the GIP - Approved Debt Financed Projects permanently in CIP and Debt Model Years 6-10 Protects Currently Lumped Sum 10 YearAverage:40%County Capltal and 60%Schools Proposed Policy Changes Years 6-10 Projects Detailed Prior Approved GIP Projects Over Three Years and No Activlty, Resubmit and Manager and Board ApproveI( a-Safety Except omv Years 5-10 Year Projects to be delineated by Year and Prior toad ORANGE COUNTY NOFM[CAPOLINA 30 Slide #15 Rationale for Extending CIP from 5 to 10 Years Near Completion of$125 Million in 2016 Referendum Approved General Obligatiorl (GO) Bonds; Determine Debt Affordability and Fiscal Years for Next Staff Recommendation for New GO Referendum Bonds; and Stakeholders Coordination, Communications and Long-Terre Financial Planning ORANGE COUNTY NOFM I CAROLINA Slide #16 Board Approved Debt Metrics Debt Service as a Percentage of Revenues • 16% BOCC Approved Polity Target Ensures Fixed Charges are Limited;Remaining revenues available for Operating Budget • Rating Agencies and Bondholders Favor a Policy Total Debt as a Percentage of Assessed Value (Tax Base) • 3%BOCC Approved Pollcy Target • Current Total DetAtoAssessed Value is 1.6% • Another Important Debt Limitation Policy that Rating Agencies and Bondholders ravor ORANGE COUNTY 'NORT]I CAROLINA 31 Slide #17 Debt Model- Key Futures Straightforward updale to Input C I P Detail Page comprised of more than 140 County Capital Projects; Input Worksheet includes, Fiscal Year of Debt Issuance, Amorti7alion Financing Period,and Interest Rate Assumptions; Output Worksheet includes;Debt Service to Revenue % Ratio, Total Debt to Assessed Value(Tax Base), Cash Surplus or Deficit and Tax Rate Requirements Reconciled to General Ledger, Financial Statements, Long-Term Operating Model & Comprehensive Model (28 Excel worksheets) ORANGE COUNTY �,,)W lICAN11.Nli Gary Donaldson said that the model is very flexible for running different assumptions. Slide #18 Debt Model- CIP Detail Worksheet h YCtfISA W'J22g22 fedlf5q.i r3MF{M410 NNIWrg r�ITwu r� 11n11 bu.m L pre[1ap'Mxa54FH4�aM 5•?F,t+IrpRlMgl4br}'9w1- -.i NOW i 4 4M= 2= L rl Oil�>nK- 4 I_ It 3WIM0 $ - i UAW} 2W7 p rlr„rc,•;r�,al lr�.-:Irr.i_iT�.il �� 117.1 ri S - F -v,1 ra r:u� 9r1 •,M.yr�r,.,,al lrr.ar+a, I,# p4}.= 1 4 SM.Qw 202Z Ja.1 N4'am .L L.iW.M L 4 L.LEAM 2M AP.—A.a,.�1a��F—rlr.row.e IS 38000 S - t ..am 2wp 12.I.__ l—0..'_.J 16 —.114 S - L 1.L'.3. '3'll'1 13 rE kltsml hM Iry§ft*l i i 62.Or16 5 - # 62AB6 2Ek7 IL%w—Fxpaocxfa :L tB4.35i 3 # 9B,.3s1 2027 J54n.0 ffy...larvn}.wlh EhK,l IS 9w'M i t 952,72R 2f#9 Jft 53.I rl e.c yIS.nIn F 3M.M1 $ n..n [Stall] ;1u1] J1 CW .sy_laarl.Nr Rdo-4 I,# 16P.EM 5 - # E6p.1% 7W7 JB Polkf.xA Fa .w rrr4ry Fkrlvrxrr.r lr,},p 4b'I # 24.5-W 5 i ... . D HWf wf Ia 3819M 4 S 38LM 2E#2 flk 2 V.Wb :# phi%" S - L 61hpw "? 2LR m'p llalriD I;# iMgq S - # a.T.QD ;lye a MJ45UW rrrrLL,WlralaFe iEE MM. 5 2000W i 4 Y-M_,''0 Z'J A3 R. tltW FS 40M i _-M L.Y19n'*fi..fw.a4nlidn-0wl 5 96 Aft S 4 ra�Cl rA3 I _ orcr rl IT9k ORANGE COUNTY WOM[CARGL.INA Gary Donaldson said that this is the input page from the debt model. 32 Slide #19 Debt Model- Results Page are Ram- Ll_&M k..d I"IMw RS 2021 2= 22.9 s..ZL 106.9ffiAM 7ft7 LEIJ03 0.1 I473f JIP4 IZWI.m 95IBM19M 3Gr.�B 1239G994 1i+L19.96L �mJ 242F . relll 6rt[he,se L L63.921,9di i H&4T6.7BL +curym.s Iron�r,xp�1Kfl #nl Y�oo 10. prr� 0`a m kr nL IF P­ knma Y.I.o 14 N- 2M 93 rA 16Im Fkm 213MAX.7L1 23RT9k17T 2WS: 620A LrA% 60M 20A 2AW ]LTl4 69 96L L 11(7L LE 7A 7 W% >'.1im ]LD5 Lti e3 14]1 IS GIIL 7� }Im 20A. G'9j% ,3LA Li 1gy Tn% 2i3LF ,W) MK% LX% 11 Bw 20M T.3w Avr. M23% LW% L28M 20% Jr2W ]m M rTL u rns 91 h9% T all ]M mTa Bd-12% 9134% MR6 2U11L 2.217E 21M B7 W% 071\71% 9M% 70T% 2.M fat lffuw rpr," Yalwa I Bl.tl Brb 46 FF,F- F-,.,r, [Jh[AIVi�t i}IJIV Y Gary Donaldson said that this shows the policy embedded in the model. He said that the rating agencies value the fact that the county is doing this long-term planning. He said that gives them a great deal of comfort with respect to long-term financial planning. Slide #20 Debt Model- Results (Tax Fate Impact) Qz tlLA tmmr hm Imo.; %'�utlfty kjAm 5n Lk 1a hm Ya Le IN 4d Pip 94W U Tw tWw pSl Lwlk d iip uxi L I m Owrle :E!w T.h 23 2423 201 -. :.. TOW am$ 3 M7303i9 $ •iSb.13: 0'M 13LAb'Mpe:MEP'A M ORANGE COUNTY NORJI I CARL71.1N:3 Gary Donaldson said that this is through the general fund since that is where debt service is paid. 33 Slide #21 Debt Modal- DIP Detail Workshaet Mensitiylty AnallVsi lOOMI -.I w +rn, �� :. II•�cr ran tirarllaaTywl Ia! :•n 147! Ael :caa W m.a• +I�hnk Lx J I I I 1 z Yhas�wk•�arr Ix Sr T 1 I i8yaa rLw.w a•sraom sr -4 Y L � ! IL L [rvti•wl 'x•5 T I 1 I I I 4 Lt LYrraavrb W LrL Y 1 L i I 1 R L}LF M+IPT+YI••Ir*l G�41[� 1 I L 1+•T�4,�1-7W I LL-4nY`r,` W '�La 3v 1 � L L :ft3r PhMk wlw L• 7P 1 1 1 a 1 i I 1 ~r..Iraw:w�rs sa ap a 4Mo-�d•hn 19 6r5 T I 1 1 1 MM{ I 4 �r,t-watw.r 5.i I e +rw,rrw•Irtlr�rr W rwy T� I w 1 1 G vcr 3c�L1'b'a• Lv } 1 I I J.10.I L —MO � N 4 TWLF i L Y7a- !AlJIV1I 4 L!4a tarnlra Lv Y I I 1 _iM_KK I L . � Now mr4�r•s l+ ar�r�Lo-vu aah•ry � m L N 7n�br bnn 7C.r�r'w{,r Lx b,w T I 1 } !mr.i s a l 4 rrn Y--o�v.a- � W Y i L kL:ly a I Y IIr!LT,lr+l�� W ply T 1 1 1 1 1 I F Y fit L. �. 1 L d L i L I&LM L rn•5 T L F7k 1 d L. Srl D { 1 1 I 1 L iP.'JGd L "J YL3'-ot d 1 I 1 { L ]51W 1 �bon'T Lx 'xy I I 1 4 RJOd 4 �otL ••• • �� 4 ]l777 r 17E�NLI 1 ORANGE COUNTY NORT]r cArarrMNA Gary Donaldson said that in terms of the capabilities of putting data in the model, this slide shows anticipated debt service and what that might do to policy and overall financials. He said this is the page of concern because it shows what is running through the general fund. He said that this will show gaps that the county would need to solve for. Slide #22 Debt Model- Results (Se n itivity Analysis= 1OOM) V•j'r L L.JLI Id.rd� rk 3Lrld— 3w MM ft w Taw Nr 45 2M aura ffiM2.rr�I iar3r a'Jrs 7�2 y57.421 Tar 952.967 av7+ 17 897.2P7 7 IIGr 371C1 J4i} 1L L tLM 3L""'"G A t; 7353bv31X 3fikl•1UL J97r J97n 7n 7LT TNLII!rkl Ward '} M971i3L y 3M 14d,161 MM 371G0YIn 17 YC" _ +m rmlo s Inm 4r5r,• Tm1H TIE} 1'.': Imi" LGI.Ci 1—nm. I—srilllrr O R -x- Q Lqi* _ka5i___._ 2V241 --*L MTB1.LTT V d0a 231= h}1TIN W. g{{a SC 2Sri AR 20k 12.4^ MN 21DrP M9 6bkulk 139E Y7AM UPA ti8k MS 00*k L559t 11,M& aun 29916 "M 14 XM LM;, MP, 2AN t296 19td raw& L32% 19rik t77Tt t2TR M3 82 hm (Ita 126% M1% 129a TILTIM- Sw4# 0-MLOa E>swWrs P14'I 9rJ'a u4 �h LEOrg127+ DEN S.,rrmrr -5 OM AFMWAte I Odwmlun QVM1 ORAN'--1 F C=:r)1,NTY NOkl II c AIQ11.1NA 34 Gary Donaldson showed how adding a sales tax increase solves for the gaps for the anticipated hypothetical one hundred million debt issuance. Slide #23 Debt Model- Results (Sensitivity Analysisr- 1DOMImpact) - Taa REIE G31096 kMWI W WWR Iiou taa DORA RKVe A6Md W&6/ Impea _.. Casa 1''YYx SU16U5 EM"LM Srph4D1 Wk Raw EOL.rW[ Mvad I 0".1dtr 3M 0 0 6D34 2JUM No 6.254 I3b1= 5AI513 LB�248 6254 252% 202q 0.259 (�.9e0.22% 1121.3N M24Ld 0.8321&7gl 0.254: 2M% 2025 ii139.0071 L94.752 04.212 % 6004: 2NN W25 (A 4.9m ia,n0 (7,721JIM DIM 1.72% 2027 0722<M L25kw tx.4d3 A 003t: 2))?% 20211 AWAA 121a.0 0.3€ M2u 4A64 2))7% 2029 M133.3Bq 1<311.209 mn;mi DIM 2O7b 2034 670 M L33B.35d 2.809.236 GAR MN 203t 3.XMQ LW.W 5.M&75 0000 21D7% To191 6.B01 I OB7,4 UM t BOO .WO 3 25.?9 1 FiUM196 0.50E Pay'a�ircoea5;s 1974 "��I�Flhpa�i5r�ce2�'9 5371 ORANGE COUNTY Slide #24 Debt Model- Resu!#s (Sensitivity Ana lysls■$lOOM with 5 Cents Tax Requirement) p, G•Mm" S*KWfuel* I&ftlr 010ft1 RmiLe Apulaa CeurA Rnm'* rdywd Sd PW hnPdLi ommMHW 2023 0.T31 13KMZ 5M.150 Iffi'm 0N 2.m 2024 _ 5.25r; (69dB.M 12A M CW.131 5.nt 2M 20ai 41.357AP) 12AN 113i.21E 0am 2j= 2027 Q9=411y 13M4WA 4122334 OUl 20% (;694qg� M13UM 9.540.41E OAX 20% 2029 2 MXQ 14.423 #19 0 0)s 2A+N 20M - IBM% H MA49 15=.?M O.Mt IM 2MI 32x2cu t8AP61B02 102MM4 0M MN Tool -aBat i 6GT.*Xk359 t BEBM9B9 I 12232<3T4+IT 33.DF N01T�Y11_10-3Yi _ ?B.t -oiOPnga OFo2a19 ORANGE COUNTY M3 V71 I CARGLINA 35 Slide #25 Debt Modell — Results (So nsitivity Ana Iysis- 100M Debt Serviice Summary) 50.0 40.<) �.4 r .20L0 i°.°_ ■Exisiing Debt Service ■aP E]eU[Service ■Hypmhe[ical{gyp ESand Rerererdum IDS -Wmdz& .- ORANGE COUNTY N10Wr3 E CARIOLINA Slide #26 QUESTIONS ORANGE COUNTY N4RT3 E CAROLEN:S Commissioner Bedford asked about the difference between existing debt and CIP debt. Gary Donaldson said the existing debt has already been issued and that the CIP debt is projects that will be financed in the future, per the CIP schedule. Commissioner Bedford asked for an explanation of why if you change something in the CIP, it does not make a difference in years 1-5. She also asked how 3% of the assessed value of the tax base is used in finance. 36 Gary Donaldson said the Board passed that several years ago and is currently at 1.6%, so well within the tax supported debt. He said that we are well within the threshold of tax supported debt. He said that it compares it to the assessed value. Commissioner Bedford asked if this shows how much they could tax if they needed. Gary Donaldson said it's one measure but looking at what impact on operating budget would be is going to be the deciding factor. He said that regarding her question on the CIP, to understand what is being funded in years 6-10, they need to know on the county side when they would plan for issuances. Commissioner Bedford asked how changing debt from year 3 to year 4 never changes the results. Bonnie Hammersley said it is because it is already in the model as existing debt. Commissioner Bedford said that she understands now. Commissioner Richards said she appreciates the model. She said she is not clear on where ARPA funding is considered. Gary Donaldson said all that money is in a separate fund outside of the general fund, per guidance from the UNC School of Government. Commissioner Richards asked how to forecast for that money when it runs out. Bonnie Hammersley said the reason it is not in the model is because it is not in the general fund, which is the best way to handle this money according to the experts. She said that because it is one time money, it cannot be historically looked at or tracked for in the future. She said that she will make recommendations for the money and commissioners will either agree or make a budget amendment. She said the hope is that by 2024, the demand for the services funded by ARPA will have decreased and will not be needed at the same level. She said that she will bring forward recommendations on where the demands are from departments. Commissioner Richards asked if demand is already outspending the budget. Bonnie Hammersley said her budget meetings will be in March. She said that spending and demand are currently doing fine and on schedule. Commissioner Richards said there is a housing need, so why would the money not be invested in a way that could impact housing long term. Bonnie Hammersley said there is a 3-year plan for the money and most of the money that's factored in, is going to housing. Travis Myren said one of the things the model can do is plan to use property tax revenue to continue ARPA-funded projects into the future if they are still wanted and needed when the money runs out. Commissioner Hamilton said the total debt is a percentage of assessed value and would be interested in knowing what percentage would be if also at 3% approved target. Bonnie Hammersley said it is unusual for a county to get close to its percentage of assessed value. She said that the assessed value is $22 Billion, and the county is about midway to 3%. Gary Donaldson said that the model is dynamic and flexible and that looking at 3% will provide large numbers. He said the rating agencies look at debt service to budget. He said that is the metric they look at more so rather than the total debt. Bonnie Hammersley said there is an expectation from rating agencies that the county would increase taxes to cover those costs. Commissioner Greene said during budget season she wants to talk about how to transition ARPA money and budget for those programs other ways. Commissioner Bedford said it has been both CARES and ARPA money that has been used for housing and other programs. Bonnie Hammersley said all the CARES money has been spent. Gary Donaldson noted that it all had to be spent by 12/31/21. 37 8. Consent Agenda • Removal of Any Items from Consent Agenda • Approval of Remaining Consent Agenda • Discussion and Approval of the Items Removed from the Consent Agenda Chair Price noted corrections to consent items 8-e and 8-f. For item 8-e, there is a typo in the resolution. The first "whereas" statement should read "Whereas, in November 2021 the North Carolina Legislature passed and Governor Cooper signed into law the 2021-2022 State Budget." For item 84, the expiration date for the appointment of Virginia Baeckler to the Chapel Hill Library Advisory board should be June 30, 2025. A motion was made by Commissioner Hamilton, seconded by Commissioner Fowler, to approve the consent agenda with the proposed corrections. Roll call ensued VOTE: UNANIMOUS a. Minutes The Board approved minutes from the January 25, 2022 Assembly of Governments meeting. b. Appointment of Deputy Tax Collector The Board appointed Brandy Prince as a first-time Deputy Tax Collector for a partial term effective February 18, 2022 and ending on June 30, 2023. c. Fiscal Year 2021-22 Budget Amendment #8 The Board approved the budget amendment for Fiscal Year 2021-22. d. Contract Amendment with Central Square for Generic XML Data Transfer Protect with Town of Chapel Hill The Board approved and authorized the Manager to sign the amendment to the Central Square contract and purchase of the Generic XML Data Transfer software upgrade, and authorized the Manager to sign any future amendments to this contract with Central Square. e. Approval of Stipends Increase for the Chapel Hill Carrboro City Schools Board of Education The Board approved and authorized the Chair to sign a resolution approving an increase in the Chapel Hill Carrboro City School Board of Education member stipends effective July 1, 2021 as follows: increase the Board Chair annual stipend to $5,124; increase the Board Vice-Chair annual stipend to $4,381; increase the Board member annual stipend to $4,010. f. Advisory Boards and Commissions —Appointments The Board approved the recommended appointments as reviewed and discussed during the February 8, 2022 Work Session. 9. County Manager's Report Bonnie Hammersley said the Orange County Government Academy starts virtually on February 22, 2022. She reviewed the agenda for the Board's February 22, 2022 Joint Meeting with School Boards. Commissioner Richards asked when schools' materials will be received. Bonnie Hammersley said the Board will receive an agenda tomorrow with two attachments from the schools. 38 10. County Attorney's Report James Bryan presented on behalf of John Roberts, and indicated he has no updates to report. 11. *Appointments None. 12. Information Items • February 1, 2022 BOCC Meeting Follow-up Actions List • Memorandum Regarding Financial Report - Second Quarter FY 2021-22 13. Closed Session None. 14. Adjournment A motion was made by Commissioner Greene and seconded by Commissioner Fowler to adjourn the meeting at 9:57 p.m. Roll call ensued VOTE: UNANMIOUS Renee Price, Chair Tara May Deputy Clerk to the Board Submitted for approval by Laura Jensen, Clerk to the Board.