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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda 02-17-22; 7-b - Long-Term Financial Planning Operating and Debt Models 1 ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: February 17, 2022 Action Agenda Item No. 7-b SUBJECT: Long-Term Financial Planning Operating and Debt Models DEPARTMENT: Finance and Administrative Services ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: Financial Models Presentation Gary Donaldson, Chief Financial Officer, (919) 245-2453 PURPOSE: To receive and review information on the two County financial models — 1) Operating Model and 2) Debt Model — that the Finance and Administrative Services Department utilizes in providing forecasts of revenues and expenditures to the County Manager, Deputy Manager and the subsequent Manager's Recommended Budget each year to the Board. BACKGROUND: The County's use of a Long-Term Financial Models was first implemented as part of the FY 2018-19 Budget Development Cycle. As noted in the attachment, Long-Term Financial Planning provides local governments an important resource in ascertaining the impact of changes in economic conditions, recessions and various spending scenarios. Bond Rating Agencies and the Government Finance Officers Association consider Long-Term Financial Planning to be an integral best practice for a local government to maintain financial resiliency. Both the Operating and Debt Models were instrumental in assisting the County through the COVID Recession and maintaining the Board Adopted Unassigned Fund Balance Policy of 16%. County staff regularly uses these two models to formulate recommendations on both the Operating Budget and Capital Investment Plan. FINANCIAL IMPACT: There is no financial impact associated with receiving this information. SOCIAL JUSTICE IMPACT: The following Orange County Social Justice Goal is applicable to this item: • GOAL: ENSURE ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY The creation and preservation of infrastructure, policies, programs and funding necessary for residents to provide shelter, food, clothing and medical care for themselves and their dependents. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT: There is no Orange County Environmental Responsibility Goal impact associated with this item. RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends that the Board receive this information and provide any comments and questions. 2 ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA Long-Term Operating and Debt Models Gary Donaldson, Chief Financial Officer February 17, 2022 3 Background 0 2017- Long Term Operating Model — Operating Model first used for FY 2018-19 Budget Development — Resource and modeling tool to determine Revenue and Expenditures under various economic conditions and scenarios — Guided County through COVID Recession — Maintained Unassigned Fund Balance Levels at 16% Policy 2018-Long Term Debt Model — Used to determine required tax rates to support Referendum Debt and other Capital Investment Plan projects — Integrates key Operating Model factors and policies; Assessed Valuation (Tax Base) Growth, Value of One Penny, Debt Service as Percentage of Revenues, Total Tax-Supported Debt as Percentage of Assessed Value — Sensitivity Analyses Functionality ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA OPERATING MODEL ORANGE COUNTY 5 MuniCast12 Annual Forecasting Model • Create baseline and alternative revenue and spending forecasts — more than 100 possible scenarios • Analyze historic trends and correlations between economic, financial and operating data • Test impact of assumptions and proposed initiatives on projected fund balances ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 6 Detailed Historical Data Raw Labels T 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 801•PROPERTY TAX 133,817,363 135,043,110 136,914,239 138,216,640 143,560,129 146,272,213 148,590,027 150,491,191 154,506,990 159,389,596 165,093,133 169,987,606 01-PROPERTY TAX-CURRENT 124,753,371 126,425,348 127,836,452 128,630,119 129,913,201 134,609,355 136,472,724 138,316,785 142,240,161 147,217,181 152,601,536 155,926,925 02-MOTORVEHICLES-CURRENT 7,284,357 6,736,173 7,037,249 7,642,650 11,107,699 9,336,486 9,633,537 10,078,546 10,055,991 10,542,064 10,435,709 11,580,836 03.01-GROSS RECEIPTS 52,920 55,526 60,381 57,398 64,202 72,307 69,997 82,783 87,952 95,976 88,127 73,781 04-DELINQUENTTAXES/INTE RESTIP ENALTIES 11,547,272 1,431,280 1,551,425 1,468,679 2,035,713 1,802,848 1,991,082 1,585,078 1,706,877 1,120,155 1,563,077 2,027,853 05-ANIMALTAX 110,852 177,247 202,849 205,508 203,714 191,564 183,542 180,865 178,504 173,581 166,767 146;965 12-BEER&WINETAX 68,590 217,536 225,882 212,286 235,600 259,654 239,145 247,134 237,505 240,640 237,917 231,247 0--OZ-SALE 5TAX _ 15,133,950 15,121,071 17,620,420 18,498,406 19,892,593 21,656,747 22,992,165 24,409,044 25,678,026 27,844,579 28,126,263 32,101,943 06-ARTICLE 39 7,149,075 7,036,299 7,625,037 8;074,532 8,384,641 8,961,080 9,353,401 9,950,445 10,563,292 11,251,490 10,700,299 12,310,207 07-ARTICLE 40, 4,839,459 5,029,567 5,427,457 5,584,729 5,892,572 6,461,675 6,819,674 7,037,136 7,387,872 7,880;950 8,235,745 9,488,408 08-ARTICLE 42 3,804,508 3,519,280 3,800,994 4,042,101 4,209,800 4,499,717 4,693,892 4,983,538 5,284,062 5,629,399 5,374,593 6,176,239 09-ARTICLE 44 309,026 (255,997) 300,434 26,489 15,183 2,382 17,620 175,843 188,549 197,469 208,166 217,560 10-HOLD HARMLESS ARTICLE 44 (968,119) (208,079) 466,499 769,956 1,389,797 1,731,893 2,107,578 2,262,082 2,254,250 2,885,272 3,601,460 3,909,528 X03-INTERGOVERNMENTAL 17,889,363 19,761,535 19,238,317 18,763,614 19,657,120 20,767,587 20,266,306 20,301,974 17,721,781 18,129,781 20,144,725 25,173,408 23.01-DSS INTERGOVT 12,873,485 12,047,690 12,405,145 12,947,119 13,211,631 14,015,018 13,696,982 12,936,594 9,196,997 9,417,597 9,891,858 10,042,389 23.02-HEALTH INTERGOVT 887,851 945,877 507,948 921,745 987,392 973,630 1,038,642 1,145,638 1,696,444 1,621,587 1,580,362 1,986,874 23.03-CHILD SUPPORT INTERGOVT 1,548,853 1,657,157 1,561,401 1,077,901 1,412,472 1,580,162 1,417,830 1,588,203 1,677,427 1,543,474 1,751,663 1,467,539 23.04-TRANSPORTATION INTERGOVT 687,489 487,832 561,184 440,660 433,859 619,641 414,743 572,882 888,486 831,729 1,065,624 859,714 23.05-AGING INTERGOVT 583,436 605,985 531,370 546,698 568,998 645,325 560,547 601,190 610,668 714,538 652,824 779,350 23.06-SHERIFFINTERGOVT 93,684 375,850 258,802 195,122 407,151 379,137 377,637 719,473 653,767 763,248 649,671 445,897 23.07-CJRD INTERGOVT - - - - - - - 247,373 337,433 429,138 429,138 329,138 23.08-COUNTY DEBT INTERGOVT 1,723 18,653 63,191 42,991 42,991 31,489 - - 271,675 271,675 271,675 271,675 23.09-ANIMAL SERVICES INTERGOVT 100,921 115,478 128,536 131,494 191,109 200,493 218,245 207,995 180,449 227,259 320,253 286,424 f ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 7 Long-Term Financial Model GENERAL FUND SUMMARY FORECAST Actual Original Estimated Projected Projected Projected Projected 2020-21 2021-22 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 ($ in Thousands) Property Tax 169,988 177,662 179,224 183,039 187,219 190,922 194,696 Sales Tax 32,102 28,952 32,502 35,357 36,625 37,943 39,312 Intergovernmental 25,173 18,227 19,652 17,952 18,410 18,882 19,367 Charges for Service 11,762 12,478 12,794 12,692 12,928 13,171 13,422 Other Revenue 1,579 1,401 1,732 1,407 1,414 1,421 1,428 Transfers In 7,591 75 95 75 75 75 75 Revenues from CIP - 0 - 0 0 0 0 Approp of Fund Balance - 1,968 - 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 Total Revenues 248,195 240,762 246,000 253,022 259,171 264,913 270,800 Community Services 13,491 14,175 13,818 14,825 15,180 16,030 16,324 General Government 10,618 10,277 10,232 10,708 11,004 11,310 11,626 Public Safety 27,107 28,529 27,467 29,946 30,672 31,416 31,959 Human Services 38,371 39,994 40,621 41,142 42,094 43,515 44,434 Education 92,671 93,835 95,584 99,063 101,591 104,173 107,104 Support Services 15,242 12,882 14,708 15,142 15,566 16,071 16,522 Non-Departmental - - - - - - - Post-ARPA Expenditures - 0 - 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 Debt Service 33,764 40,027 40,159 38,353 38,421 37,347 38,876 Transfers Out 8,758 1,044 7,930 1,827 2,086 2,424 2,544 O&M Impact from CIP - 0 - 215 756 827 831 Budget Adjustments 4,518 Total Expenditures 240,022 240,762 246,000 253,022 259,170 264,913 272,019 Net Annual Rev (Exp) 8,173 (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) (1,219) Gap to Close 0 0 0) 0 1,219 Balanced Budget - (0) - - - - ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 8 Long-Term Financial Model GENERAL FUND SUMMARY FORECAST Actual Original Estimated Projected Projected Projected Projected 2020-21 2021-22 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 ($ in Thousands) Property Tax 169,988 177,662 179,224 183,039 187,219 190,922 194,696 Sales Tax 32,102 28,952 32,502 35,357 36,625 37,943 39,312 Intergovernmental 25,173 18,227 19,652 17,952 18,410 18,882 19,367 Charges for Service 11,762 12,478 12,794 12,692 12,928 13,171 13,422 Other Revenue 1,579 1,401 1,732 1,407 1,414 1,421 1,428 Transfers In 7,591 75 95 75 75 75 75 Revenues from CIP - 0 - 0 0 0 0 Approp of Fund Balance - 1,968 - 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 Total Revenues 248,195 240,762 246,000 253,022 259,171 264,913 270,800 Personnel Services 71,666 73,511 74,643 78,861 80,883 82,957 85,087 Operations 35,074 34,521 34,700 37,977 38,707 40,457 41,248 Recurring Capital 776 80 100 81 83 85 86 Long Range Capital / Debt 33,498 40,027 40,027 38,353 38,421 37,347 38,876 Education 89,811 90,205 90,205 93,933 96,461 99,043 101,974 Contribs. to Other Agencies 2,404 1,373 2,732 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,373 Other Uses 266 - 181 - - - - Transfers To 6,527 1,044 7,930 1,827 2,086 2,424 2,544 Budget Adjustments (4,518) O&M Impact from CIP - 0 - 215 756 827 831 Total Expenditures 240,022 240,762 246,000 253,022 259,170 264,913 272,019 Net Annual Rev (Exp) 8,173 (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) (1,219) Gap to Close 0 0 0 0 1,219 Balanced Budget - (0) - - - - ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 9 Forecast Assump tions Tab REVENUES AND SOURCES ADOPTED ACCTTYPE KEY ASSUMPTIONS 2021A 20228 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 101-PROPERTY TAX-CURRENT From tax calculations above(total valuation 2%growth x collection 155,926,925 165,001,124 170,081,586 174,011,358 177,491,585 381,512,895 7 CUSTOM x tax rate). 170,081,586 174,011,358 177,491,585 181,512,895 INFLAIION POPULATION&INFLATION 2.2% 5.8% 3.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.3% 5-YEAR AVG.ANNUALS _ 102-3-YEARANNUALAVG.%TREND m tax calculations above(total valuation 2%growth x collection 11,580,836 10,339,468 10,631,673 10,877,320 11,094,866 10,841,958 3-YEAR ANNUAL AVG.%TREND 11 FLAT te x tax rate). 10,631,673 10,877,320 11,094,866 10,841,958 11.0 -10.7% 2.8% 2-3% 2.0% -2.3% 0.0% 0.04'. 0.0% 0.0% 03.01-GROSS RECEIPTS 73,781 82,400 86,069 89,900 93,903 98,084 Privilege✓';cense,license admin and late fees;Use S•year%overage, 515-YEAR ANNUAL AVG.%TREND 1 82,404 86,069 89,900 93,9Q3 -16.3% 11.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% ox%j 0.0%1 0.0%1 0.0% 03.02-OTHER TAXES Use 5-year%avemge. 21,575 26,050 24,415 1 22,883 21,446 20,100 515-YEAR ANNUAL AVG.%TREND 1 26,0501 24,415 f 22,883 21,446 4.5% 20.7% -6.3% -6.3% -6.3% -6.3% -. - - 0.0%1 0.0%1 0.0% 4.0% 04-DELINQUENT TAXES/INTERESTJPENALTIES Use 5-year%avemQe. 2,027,853 1,778,000 1,788,316 1,798,692 f 1,809,129 1,819,fi26 , 515-YEAR ANNUAL AVG.%TREND � 1,778,000 1,788,316 1,798,692 1,809,129 29.7% -12.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%1 0.0%1 0,0% 05-ANIMAL TAX 146,965 185,000 179,955 175,048 170,274 165,631 Use S-year%a-aye 515-YEAR ANNUAL AVG.%TREND 185,000 179,955 175,048 170,274 -11.9% 25.9% -2.7% -2.7% -2.7% -2.7% ... 6-Scenario Options 7-Forecast Assumptions 7a-2021-22 Estimate 7b-Forecasting Indicators 8-Statistical Analysis 9-Trend Analysis-Acct Type 10-Trend Analysis-Dept I 11-Revs-Exps-T... @ , ©RANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 10 Detailed Property Tax Modeling 2021A 20226 I 2023E I 2024E I 2025F AV-REAL/PERSONAL/CORP (BUDGET) 18,000,865,824 20,468,994,703 20,878,374,597 21,295,942,089 21,721,860,931 PERCENT CHANGE 1.89% 13.71% 2.00% 2.00% 2.005". AV-MOTOR VEHICLE (BUDGET) 1,295,376,381 1,270,536,088 1,295,946,810 1,321,865,746 1,348,303,061 PERCENT CHANGE 3.98% -1.92% 2.00% 2.00%1 2.00% AV-TOTAL 19,296,242,205 21,739,530,791 22,174,321,407 22,617,807,835 23,070,163,992 PERCENT CHANGE IN AV 2.02% 12.66% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% DIRECT TAX RATE (PER $100 AV) 0.8679 0.8679 0.8187 0.8212 0.8237 POST REVAL TAX RATE 0.7887 TAX RATE FROM DEBT 0.0300 0.0025 0.0025 TAX RATE FOR OPERATIONS NEW TAX RATE 0.8187 0.8212 0.8237 0.8237 PERCENT CHANGE IN TAX RATE 0.00% -5.67% 0.31% 0.30% 0.00% CURRENT LEVY (REAL/PERS/CORP) 156,229,514 167,579,660 171,453,212 175,414,675 178,922,968 CURRENT LEVY(VEHICLE) 11,242,572 10,401,879 10,642,315 10,888,208 11,105,972 TOTAL CURRENT LEVY 167,472,086 177,981,539 182,095,527 186,302,883 190,028,941 COLLECTION RATE (REAL/PERS/CORP) 98.70% 98.70%1 99.20%1 99.20%1 99.20% COLLECTION RATE (VEHICLES) 99.40% 99.40%1 99.90%1 99.90%1 99.90% COLLECTIONS(REAL/PERS/CORP) 154,198,531 165,401,124 170,081,586 174,011,358 177,491,585 COLLECTIONS(VEHICLES) 11,175,116 10,339,468 10,631,673 10,877,320 11,094,866 TOTAL CURRENT COLLECTIONS 165,373,647 175,740,592 180,713,259 184,888,678 188,586,451 REVENUE PER ONE CENT LEVY 1,905,446 2,146,581 2,200,600 2,244,612 2,289,504 f ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 11 Current Year Estimate Tab YTD-DEC2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 2022 CATEGORY YTD-DEC YTD% . Model Calc Analyst Est REVENUES AND TRANSFERS-IN 01-PROPERTY TAX-CURRENT 118,891,914 80.8% 129,292,323 84.7% 133,177,082 85.4% 83.6% 140,085,649 167,503,178 166,501,124 02-MOTOR VEHICLES-CURRENT 5,182,655 49.2% 5,527,461 53.0% 5,893,987 50.9% 51.0% 5,901,340 11,569,532 10,439,468 03.01-GROSS RECEIPTS 49,888 52.0% 52,538 59.6% 31,874 43.2% 51.6% 47,954 92,935 82,400 03.02-OTHER TAXES 6,307 25.1% 6,338 30.7% 7,273 33.7% 29.8% 4,180 14,010 26,050 04-DELINQUENT TAXES 806,573 72.0% 745,007 47.7% 1,085,733 53.5% 57.7% 890,128 1,541,708 1,778,000 05-ANIMAL TAX 87,112 50.2% 86,263 51.7% 72,647 49.4% 50.4% 45,098 89,395 147,000 06-ARTICLE 39 2,954,553 26.3% 3,332,962 31.1% 3,258,647 26.5% 28.0% 3,556,315 12,719,506 12,928,055 07-ARTICLE 40 1,864,978 23.7% 2,081,299 25.3% 2,244,930 23.7% 24.2% 2,638,341 10,902,891 10,493,639 08-ARTICLE 42 1,477,413 26.2% 1,667,056 31.0% 1,632,642 26.4% 27.9% 1,786,536 6,403,648 6,580,353 ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 12 Monthly Cashflow Model AVAILABLE FUND BALANCE-GENERAL FUND,FOR FISCAL YEAR ENOPNG-JUN-2022 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 z Z 4 j $60,000 O x k $00,000 — $20,000 y J i ,_ '• ' ` _— _— All msa atrAAa aAiaa 1Amar N4 ax r to aAsua p]AAva Ma;xar so,au 'aApa pat Rasa ataxy astsea aa.ass xaaAaa se as stsm aAfia az )a aqua Axrea stay aagsaa xaGa� agsn M#xaa rasa 34ae ,<sam �� a,a.a .ao uw. em w® I .� xysma ua s>� r� a:aax mma � uaw .par .taaa mea a..e a:, a,aa, zn maw u:sa Baru x x,®. m� aaaa atsea oaman xaass vcax um vxacs acv vtssa ' t x xznv mass msw mru axau maw asaw suss mss ztsss Awl � use mraa maze ' acvu mus mrss Wars maw zsus zzsu xvw zasar -mAdxr ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 13 Synergies with other Models • Work with Vendor to create interfaces from other models • Operating impacts from Capital Improvement Plan Database • Debt expenses and Property Tax required increases from Debt Model ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 14 D T MOD L ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 15 Capital FundingPolicies Current Policy • Debt Policies Incorporated in the CIP • Approved Debt Financed Projects permanently in CIP and Debt Model • Years 6-10 Projects Currently Lumped Sum • 10 Year Average: 40% County Capital and 60% Schools Proposed Policy Changes • Years 6-10 Projects Detailed • Prior Approved CIP Projects Over Three Years and No Activity; Resubmit and Manager and Board Approval (Life-Safety Exceptions) • Years 6-10 Year Projects to be Delineated by Year and Prioritized ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 16 Rationale for Extending CIP from 5 to 10 Years ➢ Near Completion of $ 125 Million in 2016 Referendum Approved General Obligation (GO) Bonds; ➢ Determine Debt Affordability and Fiscal Years for Next Staff Recommendation for New GO Referendum Bonds; and ➢ Stakeholders Coordination , Communications and Long-Term Financial Planning ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 17 Board Approved Debt Metrics ➢ Debt Service as a Percentage of Revenues • 15% BOCC Approved Policy Target • Ensures Fixed Charges are Limited; Remaining revenues available for Operating Budget • Rating Agencies and Bondholders Favor a Policy ➢ Total Debt as a Percentage of Assessed Value (Tax Base) • 3% BOCC Approved Policy Target • Current Total Debt to Assessed Value is 1 .6% • Another Important Debt Limitation Policy that Rating Agencies and Bondholders Favor ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 18 Debt Model = Key Features • Straightforward update to Input CIP Detail Page comprised of more than 140 County Capital Projects; • Input Worksheet includes; Fiscal Year of Debt Issuance, Amortization Financing Period, and Interest Rate Assumptions; • Output Worksheet includes; Debt Service to Revenue % Ratio, Total Debt to Assessed Value (Tax Base), Cash Surplus or Deficit and Tax Rate Requirements • Reconciled to General Ledger, Financial Statements, Long-Term Operating Model & Comprehensive Model (28 Excel worksheets) ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 19 Debt Model = CIP Detail Worksheet Project Total Project Fiscal Year of Projects as of 7112,12021 Cash Funding Debt Funding Cost Debt Issuanep 4 5 Facility Accessibility and Security Improvements(Carry Over) $ 64,000 $ - $ 84,000 2022 6 IT Infrastructure $ 434,500 $ - $ 434,500 2022 7 Parks and Recreation Facility Renovations $ 180,000 $ - $ 180,000 2022 8 IT-Governance Council Initiatives(Carry Over) $ 152,174 $ - $ 152,174 2022 9 IT-Governance Council Initiatives $ 500,000 $ - $ 500,000 2022 10 IT Infrastructure $ 1,164,000 $ - $ 1,164,000 2022 11 Parks and Recreation Facility Renovations $ 180,000 $ - $ 180,000 2022 12 IT-Governance Council Initiatives(Carry Over) $ 152,174 $ - $ 152,174 2022 13 IT Infrastructure(Carry Over) $ 52,080 $ - $ 52,080 2022 14 Vehicle Replacements $ 885,341 $ - $ 885,341 2022 15 Vehicle Replacements(Carry Over) $ 352,728 $ - $ 352,728 2022 16 Sheriff Body Cameras $ 158,381 $ - $ 158,381 2022 17 Communication Systems(Portable Radios) $ 160,308 $ - $ 160,308 2022 18 Parks and Recreation Facility Renovations(Carry Over) $ 24,500 $ - $ 24,500 2022 19 HVAC Projects $ 361,000 $ - $ 361,000 2022 20 HVAC Projects $ 515,000 $ $ 515,000 2022 21 HVAC Projects(Carry Over) $ 430,079 $ - $ 430,079 2022 22 501-503 W.Franklin Renovations- SEE NOTES $ 2,000,000 $ - $ 2,000.000 2022 23 IT-Broadband Connectivity $ 440,000 $ - $ 440.000 2022 24 Lake Orange Dam Rehabilitation(Carry Over) $ 95.000 $ - $ 95.000 2022 Or, I it'r, C CIP Detail Page Results 11 Input from Operating Model rutput for Operating Model Existing&Proposed Debt Summary I TS Debt Affordability I Assumptions IGrowth Tre ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 20 Debt Model - Results Page Orange County, NC Debt Statistics New Debt Issued Total New DS 2021 - - 2022 72,852,254 106,989,648 2023 49,457,021 72,714,237 2024 17,881,700 25,805,995 2025 11,198,672 15,545,949 2026 12,535.284 17,419,931 2027 - - 2028 - - 2029 - - Total Debt Issued $ 163,924,931 $ 238,475,761 Assumptions(from Growth Trends Tab) Debt Ratios 10-year Payout Debt to AV DS to GF Revenues Assessed Value GF Revenues 2022 63.32% 1.62% 1&73% 21,739,530,791 238,794,177 2023 62.07% 1.68% 15.61% 2.00% 2.66% 2024 63.96% 1-60% 16.27% 2.00% 2.18% 2025 65.72% L50% 15.63% 2.00% 2.1996 2026 67.91% 1-33% 14.78% 7.72% 2.13% 2027 70.80% 1-20% 14.88% 2.07% 2.39% 2028 74.21% _ 106% 12.87% 2.07% 2.26% 2029 78.73% 0.95% ii-89% 2.07% 2.26% 2030 83.52% 0.84% 10.83% 2.07% 2.27% 2031 87.36% 0.74% 9.89% 2.07% 2.28% Tan Impact Scenario Override Existing Debt Only No Page Results Input from Operating Model 0utput for Operating Mod Existing&Propose Debt Summary TS Debt Affordability Assumptions UKANUL C..UUN Y NORTH CAROLINA 21 Debt Model - Results (Tax Rate Impact) Gross Annual Revenue from Tax Rate Capital Reserve Adjusted Surplus/ Tax Impact Value of One Cash Flow Statistics Tax Rate Equivalent Surplus/Deficit Equivalent Utilized (Deficit) Override Penny 2022 O.ON 2,146,581 2023 0.25 (1,065,571) 550,150 0.25$ 2.52% 2024 0.25 (3,042,259) 1,122,306 - 0.25 2.00% 2025 (717,679) 1,144,752 427,073 0.00 2.00% 2026 778,050 1,233,100 2,011,150 O.ON 7.72% 2027 (271,537) 1,191,764 920,227 O.ON 2.07% 2028 4,577,815 1,216,414 5,794,229 O.ON 2.07% 2029 6,751,819 1,241,584 7,993,403 0,0N 2.07% 2030 9,271,975 1,337,438 10,609,413 O.ON 7.72% 2031 11,559,225 1,293,416 12,852,641 0,0N 2.07% Total 0.50 $ 798,730,379 $ 48,579,735 $ $ 849,745,487 MR Prior Tax Inrcreases 4,87 Total CIP Impact Since 2019 5.37 ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 22 Debt Model - CIP Detail Worksheet (Sensitivity Analvsis-$ 1 OOM) Project Issue Timing Frojectsasof7/].21201_ (Beginning or Purpose Year Project Authorized 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 End of FY' 46 Twin Creeks Park End County CIP $ 5 S S S $ S 47 EMSSubstatli End County CIP $ $ $ $ $ 2,700,ODO S $ 48 Facility Master Plan•Rlllsborough End County CIP $ S $ S $ S $ 49Orange C4untpSouthern Branch Utirary(CDumyparticipationonly) End County CIP $ S $ $ $ 8,681,605 S $ 50 River Park,Phase II End County CIP $ $ S S S - 5 S 51 Mountains to Sea Trail End County CIP $ S $ S $ 145,500 S $ 52 Durham Technical CC Academic Building End Community College CIP S S S S 1,000,00(1 S 3,080,OOD S S 53 Little River Park-Phase 2 End County 2017 $ S $ $ - S 50,000 S S 54 EMS Substations(Carry Over) End County 2018/CIP $ 845,ODO S S 450,000 S S S S 55 Major Plumbing Repairs-MultipleFacilfles End County CIP $ S $ - $ 45,004 $ S $ 56 Park!ng Lot Improvements(CayOver) End County 2020 $ S S 37,720 S - S S S 57 RoofrlPro)ects(Cany0yer) End County CIP $ S S 5 48380 S S $ 58IT-Fiber Connectivity(Carry Owl End County 2018/CIP S 857,488 $ $ S S S $ 59 Phillip Nick Waters BuildingRemedlation End County CIP $ S $ $ $ 685,193 S $ 60 Schools.RecurringCaprtal End Schools CIP $ $ S $ S 3,000,000 S S 61 Deferred School Maintenance End Schools CIPAdddton $ S $ $ 3,000,000 $100,000,000 $ 62 School Bands-Lincoln Center End Schools CIP $ $ S S $ 1,922,000 S $ 63 School8onds-OCS End Schools CIP $ S $ S S 11,386,000 S S 64 SchDolsVariousi improvements End Schools CIP ffi $ $ $ 4,174,222 S $ 65 School Project-Addttional2022Funding End Schools CIP $ S $ $ $ 3,640,000 S $ 66 School Project-Additional2021Funding(Carry_Over) End Schools CIP $ S $ $ 5,318,260 $ $_ $ 67 schools Various FadlftiesImprovements(Carry Over) End Schools CIP S S $ S 3,107,313 S S S 6817-Governance Council Initiatives End County_ CIP S S S S S S $ 69 IT Infrastructure End County CIP S S S $ S S 1,021,555 $ 70 Parks and RecreattonFacility Renovations End County CIP $ $ S S $ 5 180,000 S 71 Vehicle Replacements End County CIP $ S $ $ $ S 777,990 $ 72 Communicatmn Systems(Portable Radios) End County $ S S S S S 1_68,323 S 73 WAC Projects End County $ S $ $ $ S 325.000 $ 74 Old Courthouse Square End County CIP $ S $ S $ S 40,000 S 75 Blackwood Farm Park End County CIP $ S $ $ $ S 127,500 $ 76 Conservation Easements End County CIP S S $ S $ S 500,000 $_ 77 CourtStree{Annez End County CIP S $ S $ $ 100,000 $ CIP Detail Page RAW Input from Operating Model Output for Operating Model Existing&Proposed Debt Summary TS Debt Affordability I Assumptions I Growth Tre 0 n e GRANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 23 Debt Model - Results (Sensitivity Analysis=$ 1 OOM) ©range County, NC Debt Statistics New Debt Issued Total New DS 2021 - - 2022 69,852,254 102,470,898 2023 152,457,021 227,857,987 2024 17,881,700 25,805,995 2025 11,198,672 15,545,949 2026 12,535,284 17,419,931 2027 - - 2028 - - 2029 ff - Total Debt Issued $ 263,924,931 $ 389,100,761 ADDED$100M in FY 2023 Assumptions(from Growth Trends Tab) Debt Ratios 10-year payout Debt to AV DS to GF Revenues Assessed Value GF Revenues 2022 63.52% 1.61% 16.73% 21,739,530,791 238,794,177 2023 57.36% 2.13% 15.57% 2.00% 2.66% 2024 59.66% 2.05% 17.44% 2.00% 2.18% 2025 61.92% 1.93% 18.67% 2.00% 2.19% 2026 64.11% 1.71% 17.88% 7.72% 2.13% 2027 66.90% 155% 17.78% 2.07% 2.39% 2028 70.12% 139% 15.97% 2.07% 2.26% 2029 74.30% 1.25% 14.94% 2.07% 2.26% 2030 78.80% 112% 13.73% 2.07% 2.27% 2031 82.78% 0.99% 12.65% 2.07% 2.28% Tax Impact Scenario Override Existing Debt Only No J ge Results [nput from Operating Model Output far Operating Model Existing&Proposed Debt Summary TS Debt Affordability I Assumptions Grown ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 24 Debt Model - Results (Sensitivity Analysis=$100M Impact) Tax G Donaldson, Need to Adjust Tax Tax Rate Gross Annual Revenue from Tax Capital Reserve Adjusted Surplus/ Impact Rate to cover Deficits Cash Flow Statistics Equivalent Surplus/Deficit Rate Equivalent Utilized (Deficit) _ Override 2022 - 0 - - 0 0.00 2,146,581 2023 0.25 (364,902) 550,150 - 185,248 0.25 2.52% 2024 0.25 (5,980,228) 1,122,306 185,248 (4,672,674) 0.25¢ 2.00% 2025 - (11,357,007) 1,144,752 - (10,212,255) 0.00 2.00% 2026 - (8,954,988) 1,233,100 - (7,721,889) 0.001 7.72% 2027 - (9,722,417) 1,258,596 - (8,463,821) 0.001 2.07% 2028 - (4,590,455) 1,284,628 - (3,305,827) 0.001 2.07% 2029 - (2,133,380) 1,311,209 - (822,171) 0.001 2.07% 2030 - 670,886 1,338,350 - 2,009,236 0.001 2.07% 2031 - 3,242,612 1,366,063 - 4,608,675 0.001 2.07% Total 0.501 $ 667,495,358 $ 51,027,590 $ 185,248 $ 718,708,196 0.50¢ Prior Tax Inrcreases 4.87¢ Total CIP Impact Since 2019 5.37 ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 25 Debt Model - Results (Sensitivity Analysis=$100M with 5 Cents Tax Requirement) Tax G Donaldson: 5 Cents Increase to Tax Rate Gross Annual Revenue from Tax Capital Reserve Adjusted Surplus/ Impact cover$100M Bond Cash Flow Statistics Equivalent Surplus/Deficit Rate Equivalent Utilized (Deficit) Override Issue 2022 - 0 - - 0 0.001 2,146,581 2023 0.251 (364,902) 550,150 - 185,248 0.251 2.52% 2024 5.25 (5,980,228) 12,345,365 - 6,365,137 5.25 2.00% 2025 - (11,357,007) 12,592,272 - 1,235,265 0.001 2.00% 2026 (8,954,988) 13,564,095 - 4,609,106 0.001 7.72% 2027 (9,722,417) 13,844,551 - 4,122,134 0.001 2.07% 2028 - (4,590,455) 14,130,910 - 9,540,455 0.001 2.07% 2029 - (2,133,380) 14,423,299 - 12,289,919 0.001 2.07% 2030 - 670,886 14,721,849 - 15,392,735 0.001 2.07% 2031 - 3,242,612 15,026,692 - 18,269,304 0.001 2.07% Total 5.50 $ 667,495,358 $ 555,801,989 $ - $ 1,223,297,347 5.501 Prior Tax Inrcreases 4.87¢ Total CIP Impact Since 2019 10.371 ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA 26 QU STIONS ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA