Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda 10-19-2021; 12-2 - Information Item - Memorandum - Report on 2020 Census Results in Orange County 1 INFORMATION ITEM MEMORANDUM To: Orange County Board of Commissioners From: Todd McGee, Community Relations Director, and Tom Altieri, Comprehensive Planning Supervisor Date: Oct. 12, 2021 Re: Report on 2020 Census results in Orange County Last year marked the undertaking of the 2020 decennial Census by the United States Census Bureau; the first census conducted during a deadly global pandemic presented challenges at the federal and local levels. Deadlines and processes were continually changed. Despite the difficulties, the Census was completed in the fall, and apportionment data was delivered to the President on April 26, 2021. Orange County appointed a Census Complete Count Committee, led by then Vice-Chair Renee Price. The committee (roster attached) included representatives from all municipalities, schools, Durham Tech, the University of North Carolina and many civic groups. The committee met several times throughout 2019, creating marketing materials in many languages to spread the word about the importance of completing the Census survey. Unfortunately, most of the committee's plans, including a series of 13 Be Counted Sites, were thwarted by the COVID-19 pandemic. These sites were located throughout the County and made available public computers for residents to use in order to complete the online Census survey. When the pandemic shut everything down in mid-March, one of the biggest problems identified with the census was the off-campus student population at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. The committee worked very closely with the University to educate students living off-campus on the importance of completing the survey. The efforts of the committee, both as a group and individual members, helped Orange County experience one of the highest self-reporting rates in North Carolina. Thanks are extended to committee members for dedicating their time and efforts into ensuring all Orange County residents were counted in the 2020 Census. Comprehensive Planning In 2002, the release of the 2000 Census prompted the first major update to the County's original 1981 Land Use Plan, which had guided the County's planning for over 25-years. The Census data was compiled into a 100-page document (aka County Profile Element) that guided completion of the 2030 Comprehensive Plan, which was adopted by the BOCC in November 2008. As the 2010 Census concluded, the County Planning Department developed a webpage as a central source for County population and demographic data. In 2 addition to Census data, information from the American Community Survey, which includes five-year estimates, was also added. The website has proven to be a helpful approach to conveying key demographic information to the public. Following is the link to the Planning Department's Census webpage: http://www.co.orange.nc.us/1467/Population-Demographics-Population-Proje The Planning Department also uses Census data to estimate population projections in Orange County. Attachment 1 includes population estimates through the year 2060 using a linear projection methodology. While there are a variety of projection methodologies, the linear methodology is widely used, relatively simple, and has historically been reasonably accurate at projecting Orange County's population when compared to actual, later-released Census data. For comparison, using 2010 Census data and the linear methodology, Orange County's population was estimated to be 153,777 in the year 2020 compared to the actual 2020 Census total of 148,696, a difference of 5,081 persons. Historical County projections using 2000 and 2010 Census data are also provided on the aforementioned website. Big picture The 2020 Census shows the resident population of the United States on April 1, 2020, was 331,449,281. The resident population increased by 22,703,743 or 7.4% from 308,745,538 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2020, North Carolina's population grew by 903,905 individuals, an increase of 9.5%, faster than the national growth rate. North Carolina had the sixth largest increase among the states and was the 15th fastest-growing state. Orange County grew from 133,801 to 148,696 for an increase of 11.1%. As indicated in Attachment 1, all of Orange County's incorporated areas grew in population between 2010 and 2020. Incorporated areas include the Towns of Carrboro, Chapel Hill, and Hillsborough, as well the part of the City of Mebane that is within Orange County. Unincorporated Orange County grew from 51,942 to 55,516 for an increase of 6.9% during the same period. Response rates North Carolina's self-response rate was 63.9%, which was less than in 2010 (64.8%) and trailed the national average of 67.0%. For the first time, the Census allowed households to respond via the Internet. The number of people who responded on the Internet was 49.6% in N.C. and 53.5% in the nation. Orange County ranked third in the state in self-response rates at 72.8%, trailing only Union County (74.7) and Wake County (73.1). In Orange County, 66.8% of households responded via the Internet. Where are the kids? North Carolina's child population grew by 2,654, an increase of 0.1%, while the adult population grew by 901,251, an increase of 12.4°/x. Nationally, the child population shrank by 1.1 million (-1.4%) and the adult population grew by 23.8 million (+10.1%). 3 The child population grew 4.3% in Orange County (16th in state). Only 26 counties in the state saw an increase in the number of children. Congressional update North Carolina was one of six states to gain a seat in the House of Representatives, along with Texas (which picked up two seats), Colorado, Florida, Montana and Oregon. Initial projections had Texas gaining three seats and Florida two. The ideal size for each of North Carolina's 14 congressional districts will be 745,671, with minor deviations in size allowed. Using current maps, District 1 (Rep. G.K. Butterfield) is the only district that may have a 2020 population below the ideal population size of the new districts. This means that District 1 will need to expand while the other districts may need to shrink to accommodate the extra seat; District 2 in Wake and District 12 in Mecklenburg have the largest projected populations and would need to shrink the most. The 4th District, which includes all of Orange County, will need to shrink by a considerable margin to fall within the new range. Orange County becoming older, less white Orange County's retirement-age population grew by more than 50 percent from 2010 while the percentage of children decreased. The percentage of population identifying as White only decreased by 6.4 percent while the shares of Asian and Hispanic populations grew by more than 200 and 400 percent, respectively. For the first time, the Census included people who identified with two or more races, with 2.6 percent of respondents choosing this option. Category 2020 2010 Population 148,696 133,801 Under 5 4.4% 5.2% Under 18 19.2% 20.9% 65 and over 14.6% 9.6% Female 52.3% 52.2% White 76.9% 83.3% Black 11.8% 12.8% Indian/Alaskan 0.6% 0.2% Asian 8.1% 2.5% Hawaiian/PI 0.1% 0.0% Two or more 2.6% n/a Hispanic/Latino 8.6% 1.7% High school grad+ 92.7% 79.8% 4 Complete Count Committee Members Chair Renee Price, Orange County Vice Chair Members • Barbara Foushee, Carrboro Board of Alderman • Karen Stegman, Chapel Hill Town Council • Matt Hughes, Hillsborough Board of Commissioners • Todd McGee, Director, Orange County Community Relations • Melissa Blackburn, Orange County Community Relations • Janice Tyler, Director, Orange County Department on Aging • Lucinda Munger, Director, Orange County Library • Steve Brantley, Director, Orange County Economic Development • Libbie Hough, Communications Manager, Orange County Library • Tom Altieri, Orange County Planning Department • Corey Root, Director, Orange County Partnership to End Homelessness • Quintana Stewart, Director, Orange County Health Department • Lindsey Shewmaker, Human Services Manager, Orange County Department of Social Services • Catherine Lazorko, Communications Manager, Town of Chapel Hill • Dwight Bassett, Economic Development Officer, Town of Chapel Hill • Phillip Fleischmann, Director of Parks and Recreation, Town of Chapel Hill • Judy Johnson, Interim Planning Director, Town of Chapel Hill • Susan Brown, Director of Chapel Hill Public Library • Sarah Vinas, Assistant Director for Office of Housing and Community • Faith Brodie, Director of Chapel Hill Public Housing • Rachel Heggens, Communications Manager, Carrboro • Patricia McGuire, Planning Director, Carrboro • Annette Stone, Economic Development Director, Carrboro • Rebecca Buzzard, Affordable Housing, Carrboro • Catherine Wright, Public Information Officer, Hillsborough • Margaret Hauth, Planning Director, Hillsborough • Anna Richards, Chapel Hill-Carrboro NAACP President • Patricia Clayton, Northern Orange County NAACP representative • Meagan Clawar, Program Manager, Refugee and Community Partnership • Eliazar Posada, EI Centro • Dr. Krishna Mondal, President, League of Women Voters, Orange- Durham-Chatham Counties of North Carolina • Aaron Nelson, President and CEO, Chapel Hill Chamber 5 • Kim Tesoro, Chief Executive Officer, Hillsborough Chamber • Kristen Smith Young, Director of Community Relations, UNC • Aaron Bachenheimer, Executive Director, Off-Campus Student Life and Community Partnerships, UNC • Jeffrey Nash, Chapel Hill-Carrboro Schools Partners • Eric Edelheit, Partnership Specialist, U.S. Census Bureau • Stacey Carless, Executive Director, NC Counts Coalition • Durrell Johnson, Communications & Outreach Dir., NC Counts Coalition 6 Linear Population Projections based on 2000-2020 Census: TOWNSHIP POPULATION Average POPULATION PROJECTIONS Municipality 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Increment 2030 2040 1 2050 1 2060 BINGHAM 3,954 5,184 6,181 6,527 6,972 396 7,368 7,764 8,160 8,556 CEDAR GROVE 3,166 3,691 4,930 5,222 5,251 161 5,412 5,573 5,734 5,895 CHAPEL HILL 50,572 61,973 76,578 87,971 96,006 9,714 105,720 115,434 125,148 134,862 Town of Carrboro 7,517 12,134 16,782 19,582 21,295 2,257 23,552 25,809 28,066 30,323 Town of Chapel Hill 32,038 37,596 44,102 54,397 59,054 7,476 66,530 74,006 81,482 88,958 Unincorporated 11,017 12,243 15,694 13,992 15,657 -19 15,638 15,619 15,600 15,581 CHEEKS 4,821 5,422 7,064 9,313 11,050 1,993 13,043 15,036 17,029 19,022 City of Mebane 379 485 675 1,793 3,171 1,248 4,419 5,667 6,915 8,163 Unincorporated 4,442 4,937 6,389 7,520 7,879 745 8,624 9,369 10,114 10,859 ENO 4,450 5,262 6,092 7,501 8,437 1,173 9,610 10,783 11,956 13,129 HILLSBOROUGH 8,599 10,136 11,639 13,809 17,373 2,867 20,240 23,107 25,974 28,841 Town of Hillsborough 3,019 4,263 5,446 6,087 9,660 2,107 11,767 13,874 15,981 18,088 Unincorporated 5,580 5,873 6,193 7,722 7,713 760 8,473 9,233 9,993 10,753 LITTLE RIVER 1,493 1 2,183 1 3,047 1 3,458 1 3,607 1 2801 3,887 4,167 1 4,447 1 4,727 TOTAL COUNTY 77,055 1 93,851 1 115,531 1 133,801 148,696 16,584 165,280 181,864 198,448 215,032 Total incorporated 42,953 54,478 67,005 81,859 93,180 13,088 106,268 119,356 132,444 145,532 Total Unincorporated 34,102 39,373 48,526 51,942 55,516 3,496 59,012 62,508 66,00469,500 NOTE: Durham City comprises two small areas of Orange County, one each in Eno and Chapel Hill Townships. The total population of both areas is 144 people. These people were included in their respective township totals. Linear methodology: Formula: Pt+ n = Pt + bn where Pt = population in base year t; Pt+n = projected population size at a future year, n units of time beyond base year t; b = average increment of change in population size per unit of time; and n = the number of time periods beyond base year t The average increments were obtained by substracting 2000 from 2010 and 2010 from 2020 and dividing the sum of by 2. Example: ((2000-2010)+(2010-2020))/2. The projections were done by adding the average increment(row 9)to the 2020 data (row 7)and multiplying the result by the difference in the projection year and the most recent year of data (row 7), then dividing that result by 10 (10 year projection increments). Example: 6,972 + (396 * (2030-2020)/10))= 6,923 Methodology taken from URBAN LAND USE PLANNING (p.125)found in Planning library. Note: The 2000 population numbers for the Town of Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill Twp and Orange County have been corrected by the U.S. Census Bureau. This worksheet reflects those changes.