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Agenda - 03-16-2021; 8-b - Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) – Receipt and Transmittal of 2021 Annual Technical Advisory Committee Report
1 ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: March 16, 2021 Action Agenda Item No. 8-b SUBJECT: Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) — Receipt and Transmittal of 2021 Annual Technical Advisory Committee Report DEPARTMENT: Planning and Inspections ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: 1. SAPFO Partners Transmittal Letter Ashley Moncado, Planner II, 919-245-2589 2. Draft 2021 SAPFOTAC Annual Report and Craig Benedict, Director, 919-245-2575 Larger Scale Projection Worksheets PURPOSE: To receive the Draft 2021 Annual Report of the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and transmit it to the SAPFO partners for comments before the Report is presented to the Board of Commissioners for certification in May 2021. NOTE: The School Capacity Capital Investment Plan (CIP) Needs Analysis projects no new school capacity needs in the next 10 years for elementary, middle and high school levels for both Orange County Schools (OCS) and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS). BACKGROUND: 1. Annual Report Each year, since 2004, the SAPFOTAC Report is updated to reflect actual changing conditions of student membership and school capacity. This information is analyzed and used to project future school construction needs based on adopted level of service standards. There are two steps to the full report. The first part (Student Membership and Capacity) is certified in the fall and then this full report, in the following spring, is to keep the SAPFO system calibrated. At the December 15, 2020 Board of County Commissioners meeting, the Board approved the November 13, 2020 actual membership and capacity numbers (i.e. first part) for both Orange County Schools (OCS) and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS). A draft of the full annual SAPFOTAC Report is complete and has been reviewed by the SAPFOTAC members. 2. SAPFOTAC The SAPFOTAC, comprised of representatives of both school systems, the Planning Directors of the County and Towns, and County Finance staff, is tasked to produce an annual report for the governing boards of each SAPFO partner outlining changes in actual membership, capacity, student projections, and their collective impacts on the Capital Investment Plan (CIP) and the future issuance of Certificates of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS). Orange County's Planning Staff compiles the report, holds a meeting discussing the various aspects, and then prepares a draft report, which is reviewed by the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee. 2 3. Membership Data CHCCS membership decreased in total by 605 students from the previous year. - 470 Elementary School - 127 Middle School - 8 High School OCS membership decreased in total by 310 students from the previous year. - 185 Elementary School - 109 Middle School - 16 High School 4. Capacity Data High School capacity for Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools was increased by 100 students due to renovations at Chapel Hill High School. There were no changes to school capacities this year for Orange County Schools. 5. Capacity Information SAPFO vs. DPI The SAPFO is a local ordinance, independent of State Department of Public Instruction (DPI) projections and rules regarding class size. The SAPFO, for instance, does not count temporary modular classrooms as fulfilling the capacity level of service outlined in the SAPFO interlocal Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). The MOU requires `bricks and mortar' instead of temporary facilities and also requires its own set of future student projections to identify long-term capital school construction needs. However, the County did phase-in the smaller class size mandates in previous years that decreased capacity. Decisions will have to be made if new discussions at the state level create any class size changes that should or should not be reflected in the County's SAPFO. Future decisions would reflect the timing and impact of new state legislation. 6. Student Projection Analysis CHCCS Student membership projections show a mix of increases and decreases at all levels within the 10-year planning period. Projections are shown on page 36 of the report. OCS Student membership projections show a mix of increases and decreases at all levels within the 10-year planning period. Projections are shown on page 35 of the report. 7. School Capacity CIP Needs Analysis CHCCS Projected needs: Elementary School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years Middle School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years High School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years OCS Projected needs: Elementary School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years Middle School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years High School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years 8. Student Generation Rates The updated student generation rates were approved on May 19, 2015 and are shown in Attachment II.E.1 on page 43 of the report. Updated rates began to be used for CAPS 3 issuances in the fall of 2015 and are based on an inventory of recently built units from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013. 9. Access to Full Report The draft SAPFOTAC report will be posted on the Orange County Planning Department's web site. A letter and the Executive Summary of the report will be sent to all SAPFO partners after this BOCC meeting advising them of the availability of the draft report and inviting comment. 10. Additional Information COVID Impacts Both school districts have experienced decreases in student membership due to students being withdrawn and enrolled in private schools with in-person learning or homeschooled. At this time, staff believes these are temporary impacts and a majority of these students will return when in-person learning commences. However, the loss of students has impacted the SAPFO 10-year projections by decreasing future student growth rates and service levels and pushing building capacity needs far beyond the 10- year projection period. Recognizing concerns with these projections not being constructive in planning for the future or when students return to the classroom, Orange County Planning staff drafted hypothetical 2020-21 student membership and grade level numbers in order to generate alternative 10-year student projections. Additional information can be found on page iii of the Executive Summary. Changes in Class Size In 2018, the North Carolina General Assembly unveiled House Bill 90, which allows for a phasing-in process to address the decrease in class size averages over the next three school years. Based on House Bill 90, average class sizes for kindergarten to third grade will face a decrease from 1:20 to 1:19 for the 2019-2020 school year, 1:19 to 1:18 for the 2020-2021 school year, and 1:18 to 1:17 for the 2021-2022 school year. Reductions in class size averages may create elementary school capacity issues for the 2024-25 school year. Pre-K Enrollment In recent years, Pre-K enrollment has been a topic of discussion with both school districts. However, SAPFO has not been amended to include Pre-K in the membership and capacity numbers. Therefore, Pre-K children are not included in the membership numbers reported. Discussions regarding Pre-K students and impacts have been ongoing, however, COVID priorities have been the focus over the last several months. Pre-K membership enrollment for both districts are contained in the Executive Summary of the report. Charter Schools Charter and private schools are not included as part of the SAPFO Annual Report and, as a result, their membership and capacity numbers are not formally monitored or included in future projections. However, the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee does monitor charter and private schools and their effect on student enrollment in both school districts. Additional information regarding charter school enrollment is contained in the Executive Summary. FINANCIAL IMPACT: Current student growth projections do not show capacity needs for additional schools in either the CHCCS District or OCS District during the 10-year projection period. 4 SOCIAL JUSTICE IMPACT: The following Orange County Social Justice Goal is applicable to this agenda item: • GOAL: ENSURE ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY The creation and preservation of infrastructure, policies, programs and funding necessary for residents to provide shelter, food, clothing and medical care for themselves and their dependents. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT: The following Orange County Environmental Responsibility Goal impacts are applicable to this item: • There are no Environmental Responsibility Goals applicable to this item. RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends the Board: 1. Receive the 2021 SAPFOTAC Annual Report; and 2. Authorize the Chair to sign the transmittal letter to SAPFO partners contained in Attachment 1. Attachment 1 5 BOCC Letterhead March 16, 2021 Pam Hemminger, Mayor Hillary MacKenzie, Chair Town of Chapel Hill Orange County Board of Education 405 Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd. 200 E. King Street Chapel Hill,NC 27514 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Lydia Lavelle, Mayor Jillian LaSerna, Chair Town of Carrboro Chapel Hill - Carrboro Board of Education 301 W. Main Street 750 Merritt Mill Road Carrboro,NC 27510 Chapel Hill,NC 27516 Jenn Weaver, Mayor Town of Hillsborough P.O. Box 429 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Subject: Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)Annual Report Dear Sir or Madam: This letter is to update you on the status of the 2021 Annual SAPFOTAC Report. In accordance with the SAPFO Memoranda of Understanding (MOU), the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) approved the November 13, 2020 actual membership and capacity numbers for Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools at its meeting on December 15, 2020. The SAPFOTAC, comprised of representatives of both school systems and the Planning Directors of the County and Towns has produced the 2021 Annual Report. As per the SAPFO MOU, the annual technical report contains information on Level of Service, Building Capacity, Membership Date, Capital Investment Plan, Student Membership Projection Methodology, Student Membership Projections, Student Membership Growth Rate, Student/Housing Generation Rate, and the SAPFO Process. Enclosed for your use are copies of the 2021 Executive Summary and the March 16, 2021 BOCC meeting agenda item abstract when the BOCC received the draft report. The full draft SAPFOTAC report is available on the Orange County Planning Department website in the Current Interest Projects section at the following link: https://www.oran eg countync.gov/1722/Current-Interest- Projects. The 2021 Annual SAPFOTAC Report is scheduled to be certified by the BOCC at a regular meeting in May 2021. Therefore, if you have any comments pertaining to the report, please forward them to Craig N. Benedict, Planning Director, no later than 5:00 p.m. on April 16, 2021. Mr. Benedict can be reached by phone at (919) 6 245-2592 or by e-mail at cbenedict(aboran eg countvnc.gov. Any comments received will be part of our agenda package in May. Please share this information and the 2021 SAPFOTAC report with your respective boards. Sincerely, Renee Price Chair Enclosures cc: Board of County Commissioners Bonnie Hammersley, Orange County Manager Travis Myren, Deputy Orange County Manager David Andrews, Manager, Town of Carrboro Maurice Jones, Manager, Town of Chapel Hill Eric Peterson, Manager, Town of Hillsborough Nyah Hamlett, Superintendent, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Patrick Abele, Assistant Superintendent for Support Services, Chapel Hill—Carrboro City Schools Catherine Mau, Coordinator for Student Enrollment, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Monique Felder, Superintendent, Orange County Schools Kathleen Dawson, Deputy Superintendent, Orange County Schools Rhonda Rath, Chief Finance Officer, Orange County Schools Michelle Dodson, Student Assignment and Student Transfers, Orange County Schools Craig Benedict, Planning Director, Orange County Trish McGuire, Planning Director, Town of Carrboro Colleen Willger, Planning and Development Services Director, Town of Chapel Hill Margaret Hauth, Planning Director, Town of Hillsborough Attachment 2 7 ORANGE COUNTY, NC SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE PREPARED BY A STAFF COMMITTEE: PLANNING DIRECTORS, SCHOOL REPRESENTATIVES, TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE (SAPFOTAC) (PURSUANT TO PROVISIONS OF A MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING ADOPTED IN 2002 & 2003) (ORDINANCES ADOPTED IN JULY 2003) Annual Report 2021 (BASED ON NOVEMBER 2020 DATA) CERTIFIED BY THE BOCC ON MAY X, 2021 8 Table of Contents 2021 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary..........................................................................................................................i Introduction...................................................................................................................................................................viii Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners.............................................................................................ix Planning Directors/School Representatives Technical Advisory Committee..............................................................x I. Base Memorandum of Understanding........................................................................................................................1 A. Level of Service....................................................................................................................................................1 B. Building Capacity and Membership..................................................................................................................2 Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2019-20)..................................................5 Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2019-20) ................................ 8 Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2020-21)................................................ 11 Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2020-21) .............................. 14 C. Membership Date...............................................................................................................................................17 II.Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System...........................................................18 A. Capital Investment Plan(CIP).........................................................................................................................18 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology...............................................................................................19 Attachment II.B.1—Student Membership Projection Descriptions...........................................................................................20 Attachment II.13.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2019-20).............................................21 Attachment IL13.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2020-21).............................................25 C. Student Membership Projections.....................................................................................................................29 Attachment II.C.1 —Orange County Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2019-20).......................................33 Attachment II.C.2—Chapel Hill-Carrboro Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2019-20).............................34 Attachment II.C.3—Orange County Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2020-21).......................................35 Attachment II.C.4—Chapel Hill-Carrboro Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2020-21).............................36 D. Student Membership Growth Rate..................................................................................................................37 Attachment ILD.1—Orange County and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Student Growth Rates (Chart dates from 2020-2030 based on 11/15/19 membership numbers)(2019-20)................................................................38 Attachment ILD.2—Orange County and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Student Growth Rates (Chart dates from 2021-2031 based on 11/13/20 membership numbers)(2020-21)................................................................39 E. Student/Housing Generation Rate.................................................................................................................40 Attachment II.E.1 —Current Student Generation Rates(2015)................................................................................................42 III.Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process..................................................................43 A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (Process 1)......................................................................................................43 Attachment III.A.1 —Process 1 Capital Improvement Plan......................................................................................................44 B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools(CAPS) Update(Process 2).............................................................................................................................................45 Attachment III.B.1 —Process 2 Certificate of Adequate Public Schools(CAPS)Allocation...................................................46 9 2021 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service ....................................................................(No Change)........Pg. I Chapel HilllCarrboro Orange County School District School District Elementary 105% 105% Middle 107% 107% High 110% 110% B. Building Capacity and Membership..................................(Change)..............Pg. 2 Chapel HiltlCarrboro Orange County School District School District Capacity Membership Change from Capacity Membership Change from Prior Year Prior Year Elementary 5664 4893 470 3361 3047 185 Middle 2944 2917 127 2166 1654 109 High 3975 1 3932 8 2439 2381 16 C. Membership Date—November 15.......................................(No Change)........Pg. 17 II. Annual Update to SAPFO System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) ...........................................(No Change)........Pg. 18 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology.................(No Change)........Pg. 19 The average of 3, 5,and 10 year history/cohort survival,linear and arithmetic projection models. C. Student Membership Projections.......................................(Change)..............Pg. 29 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2020-2021 School Year—Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2020-2021 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual. Year Projection Made for 2020-2021 Membership Actual2020 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 Membership Elementary 4893 5699 H806 5728 H835 5473 H580 5444 H551 5356 H463 Middle 2917 2996 H79 2984 H67 2929 H12 2981 H64 3045 H128 High 3932 T 3883 H49 3879 H53 3933 H1 3972 H40 3985 H53 i 10 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2020-2021 School Year-Orange County Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2020-2021 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) Year Projection Made for 2020-2021 Membership Actual 2020 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 Membership Elementary 3047 3390 H343 3267 H220 3186 H139 3262 H215 3267 H220 Middle 1654 1790 H136 1765 H111 1730 H76 1737 H83 1728 H74 High 2381 2604 H223 2539 H158 2456 H75 2371 H10 2401 H2O D. Student Membership Growth Rate....................................(Change)..............Pg. 37 Projected Average Annual Growth Rate Over Next 10 Years Chapel HilUCarrboro Orange County School District School District Year Projection 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- Made: 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Elementary 0.91% 0.36% 0.56% 0.65% -0.23% 0.51% 0.58% 0.91% 0.84% -0.02% Middle 0.95% 0.21% 0.19% -0.07% -1.50% 0.36% 0.13% 0.28% 0.37% -0.67% High 1 0.72% 0% 0.16% 0.03% -1.44% 0.22% -0.10% 0.21% 0.21% -0.98% E. Student/Housing Generation Rate ..................................(No Change)........Pg. 40 SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS (Based on future year Student Membership Projections) CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 86.4%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years (average- -0.23%per year compared to 0.29% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10-year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard(current LOS is 99.1%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years (average- -1.50% compared to an average of 1.19% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year projection period. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 98.9%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years (average- -1.44% compared to 0.90% over the past 10 years). C. Capacity has increased by 100 seats due to renovations at Chapel Hill High School. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need to expand Carrboro High School from the initial capacity of 800 students to the ultimate capacity of 1,200 students in the 10-year projection period. ii 11 ORANGE COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 90.7%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years (average— -0.02% compared to 0.09% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10-year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard(current LOS is 76.4%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years (average— -0.67% compared to 0.59% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year projection period. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 97.6%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years (average— -0.98% compared to 0.81% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need to expand Cedar Ridge High School from the initial capacity of 1,000 students to 1,500 students in the 10-year projection period. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION COVID Impacts Both school districts have experienced decreases in student membership due to students being withdrawn and enrolled in private schools with in-person learning or homeschooled. At this time, staff believes these are temporary impacts and a majority of these students will return when in- person learning commences. However, the loss of students has impacted the SAPFO 10-year projections by decreasing future student growth rates and service levels and pushing building capacity needs far beyond the 10-year projection period. Recognizing concerns with these projections not being constructive in planning for the future or when students return to the classroom, Orange County Planning staff drafted hypothetical 2020-21 student membership and grade level numbers in order to generate alternative 10-year student projections. Hypothetical student membership and grade level numbers were drafted based on SAPFO data from previous reports. The purpose of this was to draft informal projections which may depict future student growth rates and service levels without the impacts from COVID. Staff believes the 10-year projections will correct themselves when students return to the classroom and student membership numbers increase to regular levels. Due to the requirements in the SAPFO MOUs, these projections cannot be certified,but may be documented in the annual report. Similar to the 2020-21 SAPFO projections, the alternative projections utilize the same methodology contained in the SAPFO MOUs. The four alternative projections were based on the following scenarios and data: ■ Scenario 1: Draft 10-year projections using 2019 SAPFO student membership and grade level numbers for this school year(2020-21). ■ Scenario 2: Draft 10-year projections using the average student membership and grade level numbers from the previous five school years (2015-2019). iii 12 ■ Scenario 3: Draft 10-year projections using the average Student Growth Rates from the past 10 school years. ■ Scenario 4: Draft 10-year projections using the average Student Growth Rates over the next 10 school years. Based on the four alternative projections, no capacity needs were identified in the 10-year projection period for both districts. Outcomes (i.e. projected student membership, service levels, and student growth rates) of the alternative projections are similar to 10-year projections contained in previous SAPFO reports. The following tables provide a summary of the alternative projections for the 2030-31 school year including average student membership numbers and service levels. In addition, average student membership numbers and service levels from the 2020-21 SAPFO projections are provided for comparison purposes. The 2020-21 SAPFO projection sheets, contained on pages 35 and 36 of this report, are certified annually by the Orange County Board of Commissioners. Spreadsheets of the alternative projections can be provided upon request. Chapel YWWNPUarrboro City Schools SAPFO Level of Service (LOS) and Building Capacity Eleme tary Middle Hi h Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at 100%LOS 105%LOS 100% LOS 107% LOS 100% LOS 110% LOS 5,664 5,947 2,944 3,150 3,975 4,373 2030-31 School Year Eleme tary Middle High Average Level of Average Level of Average Level of Membership Service Membership Service Membership Service Scenario 1 5,688 100.4% 3,040 103.2% 3,954 99.5% Scenario 2 5,751 101.5% 3,010 102.3% 3,948 99.3% Scenario 3 5,724 101.1% 3,073 104.4% 4,009 100.9% Scenario 4 5,738 101.3% 3,067 104.2% 3,987 100.3% 2020-21 4,782 84.4% 2,505 85.1% 3,401 85.5% Projections SAPFO Level of Service LOS and Building Capacity Eleme tary Middle High Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at 100%LOS 105%LOS 100% LOS 107% LOS 100% LOS 110% LOS 3,361 3,529 2,166 2,318 2,439 2,683 2030-31 School Year Eleme tary Middle Hi h Average Level of Average Level of Average Level of Membership Service Membership Service Membership Service Scenario 1 3,478 103.5% 1,819 84.0% 2,444 83.2% Scenario 2 3,413 101.6% 1,797 83.0% 2,434 82.8% Scenario 3 3,492 103.9% 1,836 84.8% 2,471 84.1% Scenario 4 3,516 104.6% 1,843 85.1% 2,477 84.3% 2020-21 3,039 90.4% 1,545 71.4% 2,157 73.4% Projections iv 13 Changes in Average Class Size In 2018, the North Carolina General Assembly unveiled House Bill 90 which allows for a phasing-in process to address the decrease in class size averages over the next three school years. Based on House Bill 90, average class sizes for kindergarten to third grade will face a decrease from 1:20 to 1:19 for the 2019-2020 school year, 1:19 to 1:18 for the 2020-2021 school year, and 1:18 to 1:17 for the 2021-2022 school year. Reductions in class size averages may create elementary school capacity issues for the 2024-25 school year based on the four alternative SAPFO projections. In order to address these impacts in time, the School Boards and Orange County Board of Commissioners met to review elementary school capacity (including Pre-K impacts) and determine how to implement the school capacity changes into the SAPFO annual report and 10-year student membership and building capacity projections sheets. At this time, no decisions have been made by the Schools Joint Action Committee (SJAC). As a result, the 1:20 class size continues to be used for SAPFO purposes. Pre-K Students In recent years, Pre-K enrollment has been a topic of discussion with both school districts. At this time, SAPFO has not been amended to include Pre-K in the membership and capacity numbers. Pre-K enrollment has been included in discussions regarding changes in class size and school capacity. However, Pre-K numbers and impacts continue to be monitored by the SAPFOTAC. In addition, the annual report will begin to report Pre-K membership beginning with the 2019-20 school year, prior to COVID impacts. Pre-K students for each district is as follows: ChapelFP i i Orange County City Schools Schools School Year Number of Students Number of Students 2019-20 267 144 2020-21 208 86 Charter and Private Schools Currently, there are two Charter Schools located in the Town of Hillsborough. Charter student membership for these two schools is as follows: emy The Expedition School School Year Number of Students I Number of Students 2017-18 542 326 2018-19 655 +113 355 +29 2019-20 715 +60 365 +10 2020-21 747 +32 365* *The Expedition School reached.full capacity of 365 students last school year Charter and private schools are not included as part of the SAPFO Annual Report and, as a result, their membership and capacity numbers are not included in future projections. SAPFO projections are used for projecting only public school capacity/construction needs. However, the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee does monitor charter and private schools and their effect on student enrollment in both school districts. If a charter or private school were to close and a spike were to be realized in school enrollment, the student projections would likely accelerate the need for additional capacity in future years, but likely still within an appropriate time for CIP planning. Charter Schools are also monitored by the Department of Public Instruction(DPI) which provides pupil information, based on data received from Charter Schools located in Orange County, to the County for funding purposes. The County budgeted for charter schools as follows: v 14 Chapelbiro Orange County City Schools Schools Fiscal Year Number of Students Number of Students 2017-18 162 617 2018-19 155 -7 769 +152 2019-20 169 +14 843 +74 2020-21 166 -3 885 +42 Although charter and private schools numbers are not collected for SAPFO purposes, impacts due to enrollment at these schools are accounted for in SAPFO process with the annual reporting of student membership and growth rates contained in the 10-year student projections. Future Residential Development Proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. The Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) test is conducted during the approval process at a certain stage. Once students are enrolled in a school year, through annual reporting of student membership numbers, 10-year student projections can be updated to display future capacity needs in time to efficiently plan for future school capacity/construction requests. The SAPFOTAC continue to monitor and evaluate the demand and growth of residential development throughout Orange County as well as its effect on student membership rates. Below is a list of larger residential projects and the potential number of students from these projects which may have an impact in the short term. Please note, the City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO agreement and therefore does not require that CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools)be issued prior to development approvals. As a result, the expected number of students is based on unit type and bedroom count estimates. Residential Project Jurisdiction Proposed Total Expected Number of Units Students Elementary: 84 Collins Ridge Phase 1 Hillsborough 672 Middle: 45 High: 57 Elementary: 44 Weavers Grove Chapel Hill 235 Middle: 18 High: 20 Elementary: 60 The Meadows Mebane 256 Middle: 31 High: 34 Elementary: 9 Stagecoach Corner Mebane 35 Middle: 5 High: 6 Bowman Village/Bowman Elementary: 48 Place Mebane 177 Middle: 23 High: 30 The Townes of Oakwood Elementary: 5 Square Mebane 88 Middle: 4 High: 5 Northeast Village Elementary: 46 (Havenstone Phase 1 & 2) Mebane 169 Middle: 22 High: 29 vi 15 Elementary: 49 Tupelo Junction Mebane 181 Middle: 24 High: 31 School Renovation and Expansion The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) student projections illustrate when the adopted level of service capacities are forecasted to be met and/or exceeded in anticipation of CIP planning and the construction of a new school. Both school districts continue planning efforts to renovate and expand existing facilities to address school capacity needs in a more feasible way. Additional capacity resulting from school renovations and expansions will be added to the projection models in stages, once funding is approved, versus the addition of greater capacity when a new school is constructed and completed. The renovation and expansion to existing facilities may delay construction of new schools further into the future, depending on how and how much capacity is added to the system. Decisions on the timing of reconstruction (i.e. capacity additions) funding would be directly linked to the SAPFO model at the appropriate time. vii 16 Orange County, NC School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Introduction The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) and its Memorandum of Understanding are ordinances and agreements, respectively. Supporting documents are anticipated to be dynamic to incorporate the annual changing conditions of membership, capacity and student projections that may affect School Capital Investment Plan (CIP)timing. This formal annual report will be forthcoming to all of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners each year as new information is available. This updated information is used in the schools capital needs process of the Capital Investment Plan(Process 1) and within elements of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) spreadsheet system(Process 2). This report and any comments from the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners will be considered in the first half of each year by the Board of County Commissioners at a regular or special meeting. The various elements of the report are then "certified" and formally considered in the process of the upcoming Capital Investment Plan. The Certificate of Adequate Public Schools system is updated after November 15 when data is received from the school districts with actual membership and pre-certified capacity(i.e. CIP capacity or prior "joint action" capacity changes). The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance and Memorandum of Understanding have dynamic aspects. The derivation of the baseline and update to the variables will continue in the future as a variety of school related issues are fine-tuned by technical and policy groups. The primary facet of this report includes the creation of mathematical projections for student memberships by school levels (Elementary, Middle and High) and by School Districts (Chapel Hill/Carrboro and Orange County). This information is found in Section II, Subsections B, C, D, and E. In summary, this report serves as an update to the dynamic conditions of student membership and school capacity which affect future projected needs considered in Capital Investment Planning. Interested parties may make their comments known to the Board of County Commissioners prior to their review of the report and school CIP completion or ask questions of the SAPFOTAC members. viii 17 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners Annual Report as Outlined in Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Memorandum of Understanding (SAPFO MOU) Section Id Respectfully Submitted to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District SAPFO SAPFO Board of County Commissioners Board of County Commissioners Carrboro Town Council Hillsborough Board of Commissioners Chapel Hill Town Council Chapel Hill-Carrboro School Board Orange County School Board ix 18 Planning Directors/School Representatives Technical Advisory Committee (aka SAPFOTAC) Town of Carrboro Trish McGuire, Planning Director 301 West Main Street Carrboro,NC 27510 Town of Chapel Hill Colleen R. Willger, Planning and Development Services Director 405 Martin Luther King, Jr. Blvd. Chapel Hill,North Carolina 27514 Town of Hillsborough Margaret Hauth, Planning Director P.O. Box 429 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Orange County Planning Department Craig Benedict, Planning Director Ashley Moncado, Special Projects Planner Gary Donaldson, Director of Finance and Administrative Services 131 W. Margaret Lane P.O. Box 8181 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Orange County School District Monique Felder, Superintendent 200 E. King Street Hillsborough,NC 27278 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Nyah Hamlett, Superintendent Patrick Abele, Assistant Superintendent for Support Services Catherine Mau, Coordinator of Student Enrollment 750 Merritt Mill Road Chapel Hill,NC 2751 x 19 Section I L Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—Change can only be effectuated by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) by all SAPFO partners. 2. Definition —Level of Service (LOS)means the amount(level) of students that can be accommodated(serviced) at a certain school system grade group [i.e., Elementary level (K-5), Middle Level (6-8), High School Level (9-12)]. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Elementary Middle High School Elementary Middle High School 105% 107% 110% 105% 107% 110% 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District These standards are acceptable at this time. These standards are acceptable at this time. 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District No change from above standard. No change from above standard. 1 20 Section I B. Building Capacity and Membership 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) will receive requested changes that are CIP related and adopted in the prior year. CIP capacity changes will be updated along with actual membership received in November of each year. Other changes will be sent to a `Joint Action Committee' of the BOCC and Board of Education, as noted in the MOU, who will make recommendations and forward changes (on the specific forms with justification) to the full Board of County Commissioners for review and action. These non- CIP changes would be updated in the upcoming November CAPS system recalibration and included in the SAPFOTAC report. 2. Definition —For purposes of this Memorandum, "building capacity" will be determined by reference to State guidelines and the School District guidelines (consistent with CIP School Construction Guidelines/policies developed by the School District and the Board of County Commissioners) and will be determined by a joint action of the School Board and the Orange County Board of Commissioners. As used herein the term "building capacity" refers to permanent buildings. Mobile classrooms and other temporary student accommodating classroom spaces are not permanent buildings and may not be counted in determining the school districts building capacity. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The original certified capacity for each of the The original certified capacity for each of the schools was certified by the respective schools was certified by the respective superintendent and incorporated in the superintendent and incorporated in the initialization of the CAPS system(Chapel Hill- initialization of the CAPS system(Orange County Carrboro School District April 29, 2002 - Base) School District April 30, 2002 - Base) Capacity changes were made each year as Capacity changes were made each year as follows: follows: 2003: Increase of 619 at Rashkis Elementary. 2003: No net increase in capacity at Elementary 2004: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or level. No changes at Middle School level. High School levels. Increase of 1,000 at Cedar Ridge High School. 2 21 Section I 2005: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2004: No net increase in capacity at Elementary High School levels. level. No changes at Middle or High School 2006: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or levels. High School levels. 2005: An increase in capacity of 100 at 2007: An increase of 800 at the High School Hillsborough Elementary with the completion of level with the opening of Carrboro High School. renovations. 2008: An increase of 323 at the Elementary 2006: An increase in capacity of 700 at the School level due to the opening of Morris Grove Middle School level with the completion of Elementary School and the implementation of Gravelly Hill Middle School and an increase of 15 the 1:21 class size ratio in grades K-3 at the High School level with the temporary 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or location of Partnership Academy Alternative High School levels. School. An increase of 2 at the Elementary level 2010: An increase in capacity of 40 students at due to a change in the capacity calculation for each the High School level with Phoenix Academy grade at each school. High School becoming official high school 2007: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High within the district School levels. 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or 2008: A decrease of 228 at the Elementary School High School levels. level due to the implementation of the 1:21 class 2012: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or size ratio in grades K-3 and an increase of 25 at High School levels. the High School level with the completion of the 2013: An increase in capacity of 585 students new Partnership Academy Alternative School. due to the opening of Northside Elementary 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School. School levels. 2014: An increase in capacity of 104 students 2010: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High due to the opening of the Culbreth Middle School levels. School addition. 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2015: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or School levels. High School levels. 2012: No changes at Elementary or Middle School 2016: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or levels. A decrease of 119 at High School level as High School levels. a result of a N.C. Department of Public Instruction (DPI) study. 3 22 Section I 2017: A decrease in capacity of 165 students due 2013: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High to the implementation of the 1:20 class size ratio School levels. in grades K-3. 2014: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2018: No changes at Elementary, Middle or School levels. High School levels. 2015: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2019: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or School levels. High School levels. 2016: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2020: Increase of 100 seats at the High School School levels. level due to renovations at Chapel Hill High 2017: A decrease in capacity of 333 students due School.No changes at Elementary or Middle to the implementation of the 1:20 class size ratio in School levels. grades K-3. 2018: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 2019: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 2020: No changes at the Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a system to calculate capacity. Any changes year system to calculate capacity. Any changes year to to year will be monitored, reviewed, and year will be monitored, reviewed, and recorded by recorded by the SAPFOTAC on approved forms the SAPFOTAC on approved forms distributed to distributed to SAPFO partners and certified upon SAPFO partners and certified upon approval by approval by the Board of County Commissioners the Board of County Commissioners each year. each year. The requested 2020-21 capacity is The requested 2020-21 capacity is noted on noted on Attachment I.B.4 Attachment I.B.3 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Accept school capacities at all levels, as reported Accept school capacities at all levels, as reported by CHCCS and shown in Attachment I.B.4. by OCS and shown in Attachment I.B.3. 4 23 Section I Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2019-20) (Page 1 of 3) School • Capacity, Membership and :Change Request Form School District: Orange County Schools SAPFO CAPS Year: November 15,2019-November 14,2020 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 15,2019 Elementary Square 1 1 I I ; 2019-2020 Justification School Fect Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested Footnote# Membes-ship Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Came tonPar'k, 70,812.- 5Gn 565 - 502 ` 5102, 502. 6Ut 52,492 455` 455 428 < d2$ d28. 286 VIAn:d heeks: 64,316 497`- 497 455 455, 45 49 CradyBto�n 74,016 544 S44 490 490 490 442 iI111sb666 g]i 51,106 . 471 471 420 410 420 4AA New ltope 100,164 586- 586 52G' 526 526 579 Pathways 85,282 576 "k97G: 540 540 54Q 381 Total,,, 498,188 3;694 369.4 3,361 3;361, 3,361 3f2.32 Special Note(s): 1.For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superintetrdent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and Sebool Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School UP or(2)an Amended version of this form that is certified by the 80CC. Justification: Capacity Certification: 10,'141&At A L44 uperint dent/ Date B CC air Date Membership Certification: 'Y'yls uperin n lent Date B Cha1 Date 5 24 Section I Attachment LB.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2019-20) (Page 2 of 3) Scho s . , School District: Orange County Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 15,2019-November 14,2020 Capacity and Membership Submittal bate: November 15,2019 I I School Footnote Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity A tauliacle`; 136,000 7A(I 740 �140 740. 74Q 653 C W, 5tauford 107,620 "'726': 726 726 726 726 642 Orave11yH111.` 123,OOfl 7fl0 700 700 900 700 AG'8 a� 2;166 2,1'65 2X66 ;` ,2;166 3ota3 366,62U. 2166 ;7;7b3 Special Note(s): 1.For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planters and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version ofthis form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: Capacity Certification: PA 4 ll� jd qj'fperinteAdent Date BO Chair Date Membership Certification: �j S p�InitDate B(ICC Chair Date 6 25 Section I Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,& High) (2019-20) (Page 3 of 3) School APFO Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Orange County Schools SAPFO CAPS Year: November 15,2019-November 14,2020 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 15,2019 Squa T 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 Justification High School I Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested Membership Feet -capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Footnote# 1:399 Orange 213,509 1,399 1�399 1399 1399 V. 1q. 96 :1 000 0 "1,000 f 00 206,900 0 1, 10 Partnership: 6,600 4Q 40 :40 40', �'40 34 Total 427,009 2,439 1,439. ' 1439 2439 2;439 Special Note(s):1.For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted tlio superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CTP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC.2.The 2012-2013 capacity numbers for Orange High School(1,399)is based on a capacity analysis and facilities study completed by the Department of Public Instruction in August 2012. Justification: Capacity Certification: Date perint dent Date BO air 4 E It m rs tembershiDt Certification: —. f uperiqt�on IR Cate A; BOCC Chair 7 26 Section I Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2019-20) (Page 1 of 3) School , School District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year: November 15,2019-November 14,2020 Capacity and Membership,Submittal Date: November 15,2019 Elementary Square 2015-2016 1 I 1 School Feet Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested Footnote Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity school 60,832 66,952 56,299 50,764 66,689 98,000 95,729 .. . 90,980 „ 52,896 90,221 99,500 �� 828,862 SpecialJNote(s):I.For the November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task force review and 2003 Planners and School Represmtative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: Waiting for the Schools Joint Action Committee reductions for class size changes Capacity Certification: Superintendent Date B C Chair Date Membership Certification: 11Qlti Y�Vl �� ___1I2��1q Superintendent Date B CC Chai Date g 27 Section I Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2019-20) (Page 2 of 3) School • Capacity, , School District. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year: November 15,2019-November 14,2020 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 15,2019 Square 2015-2016 i Middle School Feet Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested l"ootnote 4 (referenced Cripacity Capacity Capacity Capacity capneily school year) Culbreth 122,467 774 774 774 774 774 800 .McDougte 136,221 732 .732 732 732 732 692 Phlifips 109,498 706 706 706 7.06 766 748 Slnith 128,764 :' 732 732 732 732 732 804 T6ta1,, 496,9501 2,944 2944 2,944 2,944 2,444 3,04.9 Special hote(s): 1. For the November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC_ Justification- Capacity Certification: Superintendent Date BOILC hair Date Membership Certification: +t�z.o Ila PIAAM Superintendent Date BCjCC Chair Date 9 28 Section I Attachment LB.2 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2019-20 (Page 3 of 3) Schools Capacity, School District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year: November l5,2019-November 14,2020 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 15,2019 1 i I2019-2020 Membership i I-ligh School SquI]I'e Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested *1110itication (referenced Feet Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Footnote 11 school Year) C apetUlt 241,111 11526.. 520. 1,520 1.520 1,520 1,51 tChapel'I-ili 259,869 1,515 .., 1515 ` 1,515 arrbdrti 148,023 809 860 800 $QO 800 469 Phaeoix.Aco 5,207 40 40 40 40 40 38 Total, 654,210 3,875 3k875 3,875 $;875 3,875 3,940 Special Note(s): I. For the November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Farce review and 2003 Planers and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report, These capacities will remain aifcclive until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this Form that is certified by the BOCC, Justification: Capacity Certification: Superintendent Date BID air Date Membership Certification: t(6 yt� Superintendent Date BTCC Chair Date 10 29 Section I Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2020-21) (Pagel of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Orange County Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 13 2020-November 14 2021 lCapacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 13,2020 Eicnientary Square I I I Justification of RequestedSchool Feet rRequested (referenced CapacityfLevel � r - schoolCapacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Cameron Park 70,812 565 565 502 502 502 567 112.9% Central 52,492 455 455 428 428 428 268 62.6% IttlandCheeks 64,316 497 497 455 455 455 499 109.7% Grady Brown 74,016 544 544 490 490 490 405 82.7% Hillsborough 51,106 471 471 420 420 420 427 101.7% New Hope 100,164 586 586 526 526 526 533 1o1. % Pathways 85,282 576 576 540 540 540 1 348 64.4% Total 498,1831 3,694 3 694 3,3611 3,3611 3,3611 3,0471 90.7% Special Notes): 1.For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: Capacity and Membership Certification: 6 Ld L Su erintenden Date BOCC Chair Date 11 30 Section I Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2020-21) (Page 2 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities • (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Orange County Schools SAPFO CAPS Year: November 13 2020-November 14 2021 lCapacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 13 2020 I I I I I SchoolMiddle Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested r (referenced Capacity/Level A.L.Stanback 136,000 740 740 740 740 740 627 84.7% C.W.Stanford 107,620 726 726 726 726 726 583 80.3% Gravelly Hill 123,000 700 700 700 700 700 444 63.4% Total 1 366,620 2,1661 2,1661 2,1661 2,1661 2,1661 i 1,6541 76.4% Special Note(s): 1.For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School C1P or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: Capacity and Membership Certification: 19 -�( uperint den Date BOCC Chair Date 12 31 Section I Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2020-21) (Page 3 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Change Request Form School District: orange CountV Schools SAPFO CAPS Year:November 13 2020-November 14 2021 Icapacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 13 2020 I I2020-2021 Membership Percentage a High School Square Requested Requested Requested Requested Requested Justification (referenced Cap Feet Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity Footnotefi school year) of Sen'ice Cedar Ridge 206,900 1,000 1,000 1,0oo 1,000 1,000 1,035 103.5% Orange 213,509 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,317 94.1% Partnership 6,600 40 40 40 40 40 29 72.5% Total 1 427 009 2,4391 2 439 2,4391 2,4391 2,4391 2,3811 97.6% Special Note(s): 1,For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: Capacity and Membership Certification: perinte ent Date BOCC Chair Date 13 32 Section 1 Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2020-21) (Page 1 of 3) Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year: November 13,2020-November 14,2021 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 13,2020 Carrboro 60,832 533 518 518 518 518* 478 Ephesus 66,952 448 436 436 436 436 342 78.4% F-stes Hills 56,299 527 516 516 516 516 380 73.6% FP Graham 66,689 538 522 522 522 522 564 108.0% Glenwood 50,764 423 412 412 412 412 433 105.1% McDougle 98,000 564 548 548 548 548 488 89.1% Morris Grove 90,2211 585 568 568 568 568 492 86.6% Northside 99,500 585 568 56S 568 568 402 70.8% Rashkis 95,729 585 568 568 568 568 437 76.9% Scroggs 90,980 575 558 558 558 558 474 84.9% Scawell 52,896 466 450 450 450 450 1 403 89.6% Total 828,8621 5 829 5,664 5,6641 5,664, 5 1 664 1 4,893 86.4% Special Note(s): 1.For the November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC, Justification.Waiting for the Schools Joint Action Committee reductions for class size changes. Capacity and Membership Certification: 11/15/2020 c Superintendent Date BOCC Chair Date 14 33 Section I Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2020-21) (Page 2 of 3) Schools Change Request Form School District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year.November 13,2020-November 14,2021 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 13,2020 Aliddle School .4411arc Rewtested Rctillested Requ"'ted Requested Requested 111stification (referenced Capavih/Lclel Fect Capacity CapavitN U;ipacity Capacity Capacity Neor) of Seri Ice Culbreth 122,467 774 774 774 774 774 737 95% McDougle 136,221 732 732 732 732 732 751 103% Phillips 109,498 706 706 706 706 706 694 98% Smith 128,764 732 732 732 732 732 735 100% Total 1 496,950 2,9441 2,944 2,9441 2,9441 2,9441 2,9171 99.1% Special Note(s): 1. For the November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: Capacity and Membership Certification: 1 i1 5/2o20 6, �� d1 . �� , I- I _10 Superintendent Date BOCC Chair Date 15 34 Section I Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2020-21) (Page 3 of 3) Schools Change Request Form ISchool District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools ISAPFOCAPS ear:November 13,2020-November apacity and MeMberShip Submiffal Date: November 13,7520 High School Feet Retluotted Reque0ed Re(joested Re(luested Requested Footnote 9 (referenced Capacit'01,ei el Carrboro 148,023 800 800 800 800 800 838 105% Chapel Hill 278,508 1,520 1,520 1,520 1,520 1,620 * 1,529 94% East Chapel Hill 259,869 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,516 100% Phoenix Acad. 5,207 40 40 40 40 40 49 123% Total 1 691,607 3,8751 3 875 3 875 3 875 3,9751 3,932 98.9% Special Note(s): 1. For the November 15,2002 base year the Board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Justification: 100 seats added to CHHS for the 2020-21 school year.Total square feet 278,508. Capacity and Membership Certification: - ���- y 71' 11/15/2020 Superintendent Date BOCC Chair Date 16 35 Section II C.Membership Date 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—Change can be effectuated only by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)by all SAPFO partners. The Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) may advise if a change in date would improve the reporting or timeliness of the report. 2. Definition —The date at which student membership is calculated. This date is updated each year and also serves as the basis for projections along with the history from previous years. "For purposes of this Memorandum, the term "school membership" means the actual number of students attending school as of November 15 of each year. The figure is determined by considering the number of students enrolled(i.e. registered, regardless of whether a student is no longer attending school) and making adjustments for withdrawals, dropouts, deaths, retentions and promotions. Students who are merely absent from class on the date membership is determined as a result of sickness or some other temporary reason are included in school membership figures. Each year the School District shall transmit its school membership to the parties to this agreement no later than five (5) school days after November 15. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District November 15 of each year November 15 of each year 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: This will be analyzed in the future years to determine if it is an exemplary date. 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District No change at this time. No change at this time. 17 36 Section II II. Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) after review of the CIP requests from the School Districts. Action regarding CIP programs usually occurs during the BOCC budget Public Hearing process in the winter and spring of each year. The development of the CIP considers the conditions noted in the SAPFOTAC report released in the same CIP development year including LOS (level of service), capacity, and membership projections. 2. Definition —The process and resultant program to determine school needs and provide funding for new school facilities through a variety of funding mechanisms. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Not Applicable Not Applicable 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: The MOU outlines a system of implementing the SAPFO, including issuing Certificates of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) to new development if capacity is available. The Requests for CAPS will be evaluated using the most recently adopted Capital Investment Plan. A new Capital Investment Plan is currently under development for approval prior to June 30, 2021. 5. Recommendation: Not subject to staff review 18 37 Section H B. Student Membership Projection Methodology 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—This section is reviewed and recommended by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)to the BOCC for change, if necessary. 2. Definition —The method(s)by which student memberships are calculated for future years to determine total membership at each combined school level (Elementary, Middle, and High School)which take into consideration historical membership totals at a specific time (November 15) in the school year. These methods are also known as 'models'. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Presently, the average of five models is being used: namely 3, 5, and 10-year history/cohort survival methods, Orange County Planning Department Linear Wave, and Tischler Linear methods. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Performance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model is in its prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity shortfalls so the annual Capital Investment Plan (CIP)updates can respond proactively with siting, design, and construction. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. Attachment II.B.3 shows the performance of the models for the 2020-21 school year from the prior year projection. S. Recommendation: Analysis on the accuracy of the results is showing that some models have better results in one district while others have better results in the other district. The historic growth rate is recorded by the models,but projected future growth is more difficult to accurately quantify. In all areas of the county,proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. The system is updated in November of each year,becoming part of the historical projection base. 19 38 STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION 1 CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS � O S Tischler Linear(OCS& Mathematical formula;straight line projection yW'((c"b)*x)+b Historical growth is reflected in projected growth ti CHCCS) y=projected population;c=historical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years BYM+(BYI+5(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o o increase in BYI of 5 every other year reflects (OCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year; /oSL=/o of total increases in housing growth; reflects buildout membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year constraints member by school level BYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment OCP Linear Wavy Mathematical linear with percent variation among school decrease in BYI of 15 until school year 2010-2011 (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year,%SL=%of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year buildout constraints member by school level Kn=kn.t+(kn.,*0.01) Mathematical formula that computes the average nm1 advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(E G I g�r)13 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the rD 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=3 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same 'r CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n_1(a) percentage of students in each grade level ,~- kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year b7 andlor historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average ~ advancement rate;b=projected membership l C sZ Kn=k�-s+(kmj*0.01) Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(E Gn 1 gn.t)!5 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g,,,,(a) percentage of students in each grade level eD kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average advancement rate;b=projected membership Kn=knA+(k�r'0.01) n Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 advancement rate overthe previous 10 years For each a=(E Gn 19,1)110 Assumes a I%annual growth rate for the 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=10 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed burg n-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year and/or histor€pl growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average ►�' advancement rate;b=projected membership 39 Section II Attachment ILB.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2019-20) (Page 1 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2019-20 School Year November 15, 2019 11/15/18 2019 Report 11/15/19 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2018 - Nov 2019 2018-19 2019-20 2019-20 Elementary 3205 3232 + 27 Model Projection is T 3217 L15 OCP 3215 L17 10C 3217 L15 5C 3197 L35 3C 3217 L15 Average 3213 L19 11/15/18 11/15/19 Middle 1779 1763 -16 Model Projection is T 1786 H23 OCP 1773 H10 10C 1808 H45 5C 1794 H31 3C 1788 H25 Avera a 1790 H27 11/15/18 11/15/19 High 2349 2397 +48 Model Projection is T 2358 L39 OCP 2385 L12 10C 2339 L58 5C 2339 L58 3C 2318 L79 Avera a 2348 L49 Totals 11/15/18 11/15/19 Elementary 3205 3232 Middle 1779 1763 High 2349 2397 Total 7333 7392 + 59 Model Projection is T 7361 L31 OCP 7373 L19 10C 7364 L28 5C 7330 L62 3C 7323 L69 Average 7351 L41 H means High L means Low 21 40 Section II Attachment 11.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2019-20) (Page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2019-2020 School Year (November 15, 2019) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C)3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • The projections were all low, ranging from 15 students to 35 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 19 students lower than the actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 27 students between November 16, 2018 and November 15, 2019. Middle School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 10 students to 45 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 27 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 16 students between November 16, 2018 and November 15, 2019. High School Level • The majority of projections all low, ranging from 12 students to 79 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 49 students lower than the actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 48 students between November 16, 2018 and November 15, 2019. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were low, ranging from 19 students to 69 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 41 students lower than the actual membership. • The membership increased in total by 59 students, which is the sum of+27 at Elementary, -16 at Middle, and +48 at High. 22 Section II Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis 1(2019-20) (Page 3 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2019-2020 School Year November 15, 2019 11/15/18 2019 Report 11/15/19 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2018 - Nov 2019 2018-19 2019-20 2019-20 Elementary 5471 5363 - 108 Model Projection is T 5512 H149 OCP 5417 H54 10C 5423 H60 5C 5473 H110 3C 5418 H55 Avera a 5448 H85 11/15/18 11/15/19 Middle 2933 3044 + 111 Model Projection is T 2955 L89 OCP 2910 L134 10C 3010 L34 5C 2908 L136 3C 3025 L19 Avera a 2962 L82 11/15/18 11/15/19 High 3932 3940 + 8 Model Projection is T 3962 H22 OCP 4055 H115 10C 3894 L46 5C 3902 L38 3C 3926 L14 Avera a 3948 H8 Totals 11/15/18 11/15/19 Elementary 5471 5363 Middle 2933 3044 High 3932 3940 Total 12,336 12,347 + 11 Model Projection is T 12,429 H82 OCP 12,382 H35 10C 12,327 L20 5C 12,283 L64 3C 12,369 H22 ,Average 12,358 H11 H means High L means Low 23 42 Section II Attachment II.13.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2019-20) (Page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2019-2020 School Year (November 15, 2019) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT 3C Elementary School Level • Projections were all high ranging from 54 students to 149 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 85 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 108 students between November 16, 2018 and November 15, 2019. Middle School Level • Projections were all low, ranging from 19 students to 136 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 82 students lower than the actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 111 students between November 16, 2018 and November 15, 2019. High School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 46 students below to 115 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 8 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 8 students between November 16, 2018 and November 15, 2019. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were mixed, ranging from 64 students below to 82 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 11 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership increased in total by 11 students, which is the sum of-108 at Elementary, +111 at Middle, and +8 at High. 24 43 Section II Attachment ILB.3 —Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2020-21) (Page 1 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2020-2021 School Year November 13, 2020 11/15/19 2020 Report 11/13/20 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2019 - Nov 2020 2019-20 2020-21 2020-21 Elementary 3232 3047 - 185 Model Projection is T 3241 H194 OCP 3248 H2O1 10C 3275 H228 5C 3285 H238 3C 3286 H239 Avera a 3267 H220 11/15/19 11/13/20 Middle 1763 1654 - 109 Model Projection is T 1768 H114 OCP 1773 H119 10C 1709 H55 5C 1702 H48 3C 1686 H32 Avera a 1728 H74 11/15/19 11/13/20 High 2397 2381 -16 Model Projection is T 2404 H23 OCP 2412 H31 10C 2398 H17 5C 2389 H8 3C 2401 H2O Avera a 2401 H2O Totals 11/15/19 11/13/20 Elementary 3232 3047 Middle 1763 1654 High 2397 2381 Total 7392 7082 -310 Model Projection is T 7413 H331 OCP 7433 H351 10C 7382 H300 5C 7376 H294 3C 7373 H291 Average 7396 H314 H means High L means Low 25 44 Section II Attachment 11.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2020-21) (Page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2020-2021 School Year (November 13, 2020) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C)3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 194 students to 239 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 220 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 185 students between November 16, 2019 and November 13, 2020. Middle School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 32 students to 119 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 74 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 109 students between November 16, 2019 and November 13, 2020. High School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 8 students to 31 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 20 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 16 students between November 16, 2019 and November 13, 2020. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 291 students to 351 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 314 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 310 students, which is the sum of-185 at Elementary, -109 at Middle, and -16 at High. 26 45 Section II Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2020-21) (Page 3 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2020-2021 School Year November 12, 2020 11/15/19 2020 Report 11/13/20 Change between actual Actual Projection for Actual Nov 2019 - Nov 2020 2019-20 2020-21 2020-21 Elementary 5363 4893 -470 Model Projection is T 5398 H505 OCP 5378 H485 10C 5349 H456 5C 5331 H438 3C 5322 H429 Avera a 5356 H463 11/15/19 11/13/20 Middle 3044 2917 - 127 Model Projection is T 3064 H147 OCP 3055 H138 10C 3031 H114 5C 3033 H116 3C 3042 H125 Avera a 3045 H128 11/15/19 11/13/20 High 3940 3932 -8 Model Projection is T 3966 H34 OCP 3959 H27 10C 3981 H49 5C 3998 H66 3C 4022 H90 Avera a 3985 H53 Totals 11/15/19 11/13/20 Elementary 5363 4893 Middle 3044 2917 High 3940 3932 Total 12,347 11,742 -605 Model Projection is T 12,428 H686 OCP 12,392 H650 10C 12,361 H619 5C 12,362 H620 3C 12,386 H644 Average 12,386 H644 H means High L means Low 27 46 Section II Attachment IL13.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2020-21) (Page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District School Membership 2020-2021 School Year (November 12, 2020) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT 3C Elementary School Level • Projections were all high ranging from 429 students to 505 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 463 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 470 students between November 16, 2019 and November 13, 2020. Middle School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 114 students to 147 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 128 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 127 students between November 16, 2019 and November 13, 2020. High School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 27 students to 90 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 53 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 8 students between November 16, 2019 and November 13, 2020. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 619 students to 686 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 644 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership decreased in total by 605 students, which is the sum of-470 at Elementary, -127 at Middle, and -8 at High. 28 47 Section II C. Student Membership Projections 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report certifications. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition —The result of the average of the five student projection models represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level (Elementary, Middle, and High) for each school district(Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District and Orange County School District). 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The 5 model average discussed in Section II.B The 5 model average discussed in Section (Student Projection Methodology). See II.B (Student Projection Methodology). See Attachment II.C.4 Attachment II.C.3 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show a decrease and negative growth rate for all three school levels for both districts in the 10-year projection period. Attachment II.C.3 and Attachment II.C.4 show year-by-year percent growth and projected level of service (LOS). The projection models were updated using current(November 13, 2020) memberships. Ten years of student membership were projected thereafter. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Elementary The previous year(2019-20)projections for November 2020 at this level were overestimated by 463 students. The actual membership decreased by 470 students. Over the previous ten years, this level has shown varying increases and decreases in growth rates. Following a significant increase (168 students) in 2011-12, this level has experienced a decrease in five out of the following eight school years. Growth rates during the past ten years have ranged from-1.97%to +3.17%. The district's eleventh elementary school,Northside Elementary School, opened in 29 48 Section II 2013. Capacity was decreased in 2017-18 due to changes in class size averages for kindergarten to third grade by the North Carolina State Legislature. The need for an additional elementary school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. This is similar to last year's projections. Although not included in SAPFO school capacity or membership numbers, Pre-K programs continue to impact operations at District elementary schools where Pre-K programs exist. CHCCS reported 208 Pre-K students for the 2020-21 school year. Specific impacts of Pre-K programs at the elementary school level continue to be reviewed and discussed . Middle The previous year(2019-20) projections for November 2020 for this level were overestimated by 128 students. The actual membership decreased by 127 students. Over the previous ten years, this level has shown varying increases before experiencing decreases in 2015-16 and 2016-17. Following these decreases, membership increased the last three school years before experiencing a decrease this year. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from-0.59%to +3.78%. Capacity was increased in 2014-15 with the opening of the Culbreth Middle School science wing. The need for an additional middle school is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. This is similar to last year's projections. High School The previous year(2019-20)projections for November 2020 for this level were overestimated by 53 students. The actual membership decreased by 8 students. Over the previous ten years, growth has been variable with decreases in membership in only three of the last ten years. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from-0.90 to +4.39%. Due to renovations at Chapel Hill High School, this level experienced an increase in capacity of 100 seats. The need for additional high school capacity at Carrboro High School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. This is similar to last year's projections. Additional Information for Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Following the economic downturn(2011-14), there has been an increase in residential projects, specifically multifamily development, in the Town of Chapel Hill. As previously stated, proposed growth is not directly and immediately included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. However,proposed student growth resulting from new 30 49 Section II development is directly accounted for through the CAPS test. The CAPS test is conducted during the approval process at a certain stage and this step does project development impacts against rated capacity. Once students are enrolled in a school year, through annual reporting of student membership numbers, 10-year student projections can be updated to display future capacity needs in time to efficiently plan for future school construction requests. SAPFOTAC will continue to monitor and evaluate the demand and growth of residential development in Chapel Hill and Carrboro as well as its effect on student membership rates. Orange County School District Elementary The previous year(2019-20)projections for November 2020 at this level were overestimated by 220 students. Actual membership decreased by 185 students. Over the previous ten years, this level experienced positive growth before experiencing decreases in 2014-15, 2016-17, and 2017- 18. Following these decreases, this level experienced increases during the last two school years before experiencing a decrease this year. Growth rates during this period have ranged from- 5.07%to+2.30%. Capacity was decreased in 2017-18 due to changes in class size averages for kindergarten to third grade by the North Carolina State Legislature. The need for an additional Elementary School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. This is similar to last year's projections. Although not included in SAPFO school capacity or membership numbers, Pre-K programs continue to impact operations at District elementary schools where Pre-K programs exist. OCS reported 86 Pre-K students for the 2020-21 school year. Specific impacts of Pre-K programs at the elementary school level continue to be reviewed and discussed. Middle The previous year(2019-20)projections for November 2020 for this level were overestimated by 74 students. The actual membership decreased by 109 students. Over the previous ten years, growth has varied widely with decreases in student membership in four of the ten school years. Growth rates during this period have ranged from-1.31%to+3.74%. The need for an additional Middle School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. This is similar to last year's projections. 31 50 Section II High School The previous year(2019-20)projections for November 2020 for this level were overestimated by 20 students. The actual membership decreased by 16 students. This school level has experienced decreases in four out of the ten previous school years and this school year. Growth rates during this period ranged from-3.93%to 4.58%. In 2012-13 student membership increased by 32 while capacity decreased by 119 at Orange County High School as a result of a N.C. Department of Public Instruction(DPI) study. Similar to last year's projections, the need for additional capacity at Cedar Ridge High School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. However, to address public safety concerns with the current high school capacity exceeding the 100% threshold, Cedar Ridge High School will be expanded from an initial capacity of 1,000 students to 1,500 students for the 2021-22 school year. Additional Information for Orange County School District The City of Mebane lies partially within Orange County and students within the Orange County portion of Mebane attend Orange County Schools. However, the City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO agreement and therefore does not require that CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools) be issued prior to development approvals. Following the economic downturn (2011-14), there has been an increase in approved and undeveloped residential development in the City of Mebane and the Town of Hillsborough. However, the residential growth that has occurred in the recent past within Mebane's and Hillsborough's jurisdiction has yet to be seen with OCS student membership numbers and fully realized into the historically based projection methods due to the recession, charter schools, and possibly new family dynamics affecting family size. SAPFOTAC will continue monitoring and evaluating the demand and growth of residential development in Mebane and Hillsborough as well as its effect on student membership rates. Currently, there are two Charter Schools located in the Town of Hillsborough, which continue to have an effect on OCS membership numbers. Charter schools are not included as part of the SAPFO Annual Report and, as a result, their membership and capacity are not included in future projections. However, the SAPFOTAC does monitor charter schools and their effect on student enrollment at both school districts. 5. Recommendation: Use statistics as noted in 3 above 32 �.e���m����������������®��� ® earn ®®®®®®®®®® • ����er.���nn�m����mi�����s����� �,�n�m������������������������mi� ®® � ®®® ® ®�®� �®� � �E�©��©����m� a �����mi�m�� ���n����������;�m������ �® ® ® . . MEN M."TP�� �"+ ®®®®®®®®®®®® ®®®®®®®®®®® ®®®®®®®®®® ®®®®®®®®®® s • ®©�����F�41�Q31���d3ltmll�81�1�t�71�t�ll�fll�7�� �I�I�!!d'�I�ll�I�I�E�II�Il�E1�SIl6�}I�I�1��411�1�91�1��1�,�11�1 ®®®®®®®®®®® �r161��1�1�AI�I®����}r91��1��ll�ll�1�!!!i �911�I1�31�91�k�1 . k®kkkkkkt�k®kkkkk�kkkkkk��kkkkkk��kkkkk��kkkkkk��kkkkkk�kkkkk�kkkkk�kkkkkk�kkkkkkt��kkkkkkt�kkkk�kkkk�kkkk k�'llk�k�k�k�l��lk��'flk��lk��!!kl�llk�k��lk�;�lk�'�Ik�Ik�Elk��k�flk�"�lk�llk�k��l ®®®®®®®®®®®® ®®®®®®®®®® ���NORM 55 Section H D. Student Membership Growth Rate 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) each year and referred to the BOCC for annual report certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition —The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections resulting from the average of the five models represented by 10-year numerical membership projections by school level for each school district. This does not represent the year-by- year growth rate that may be positive or negative,but rather the average of the annual anticipated growth rates over the next 10 years. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District See Attachment II.D.2 See Attachment II.D.2 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District The membership figures and percentage growth The membership figures and percentage on the attachments show continued growth at growth on the attachments show each school level within the system. Projected continued growth at each school level Average Annual Growth Rate over next ten within the system. Projected Average years: Annual Growth Rate over next ten years: Year Projection Made Year Projection Made School 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2021 School 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- Level 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Level 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Elementary 0.91% 0.36% 0.56% 0.65% -0.23% Elementary 0.51% 0.58% 0.91% 0.84% -0.02% Middle 1 0.95% 0.21% 0.19% -0.07% -1.5001( Middle 0.36% 0.13% 0.28% 0.37% -0.67% High 1 0.72% 1 0% 1 0.16% 0.03% -1.44% High 0.22% -0.10% 0.21% 0.21% -0.98% 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District Use statistics as noted. Use statistics as noted. 37 56 2019-2020 Orange County Student Projections Elementary School Year 2(acta120l 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2OM2029 2429-2030 (act al) Membership 3,232 3,267 3,281 3,320 3,351 3,378 3,408 3,433 3,459 3,486 3,513 Average%Increase 1.08% 0.420/6 1.190/6 0.95% 0.79% 0.82% 0.79% 0.77% 0.77% 0.77% Middle y a 2019-2020 School Year actual 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 Membership 1763 1728 1,719 1713 1,732 1732 1,762 1,781 1,796 1 1,812 1,828 Average%Increase -2.01% -0.47% -0.35% 1.11% -0.01% 1.72% 1.10% 0.84% 1 0.87% 0.87% 00 High School t7 School Year 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 _ actual Membership 2,397 2,401 2,415 2,433 2,404 2,401 2,370 2,360 2,408 2,415 2,447 Average%Increase 0.16% 0.57% 0.76% -1.18% -0.12% -1.31% 0.44% 1.16% 0.34% 1.27% N � N� O � Chapel Hill/Carrboro Student Projections W o Elementary zn19-za2n ?� School Year actual 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 20M2029 2029-2030 C MembershipeD 5,363 5 5 356 5 357 5 367 5 442 5 489 5 537 5 584 5 632 5 660 723 C. Average%Increase -0,14% 0.03% 0.18% 1.40% 0.87% 0.86% 0.86% 0.86% 0.85% 0.76% O p n Middle , School Year �aletua02U 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2029-2029 2029-2030 tJ Membership 3,044 3,045 3,016 2,992 2,933 2,917 2,897 2,946 2,970 2,995 3 020 ~ x Average%Increase 0,03% -0.97% -0 77% -1-97% 1 -0,55% -0,68% 1.69% 0.81% 0.84% 0.83% C e� n High School 2019-2020 A Sclwol Year actual 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 ►� O y Membershi) 3,940 3,985 4021 4085 4123 4111 4090 4,001 3972 3959 3,950 '�►r, p Average%Increase 1.15% 0.89% 1.60% 0.94% -0.31% -0.50% -2.17% -0.74% -0.31% -0.23% (� C er y G. N 'r W O � � O O 57 2020-2021 Orange County Student Projections Elementary School Year 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 actual Membership 3,047 3,011 1 2,994 2,982 2,962 2,949 2,966 2,984 3,002 3,019 3,039 �0 Average%Increase -1.17% 1 -0.56% -0.42% -0.68% -0.42% 0.59% 0.59% 0.59% 0.60% 0.65% � r* Middle y �' 2020-2021 n School Year actual 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 Membership 1,654 1,634 1,611 1,613 1,593 1,598 1,579 1,552 1,530 1,538 1,545 Avera e No Increase -1.18% -1.46% 0.13% -1.18% 0.31% -1.20% -1.71% -1.42% 0.50% 0.50% Hi h School is 2020-2021 c School Year actual 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 0 1 Membershi 2,381 2,365 2,367 2,301 2 293 2 263 2,213 2 221 22 00 2,176 2,157 N Average%Increase -0.66% 0.09% -2.80% -0.32% -2.36% -1.18% 0.37% -0.94% -1.10% -0.86% N �� F+QQ � A N n Chapel Hill/Carrboro Student Projections Elementary 2020-2021 School Year (actual) 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 p Membership4,893 4,808 4,708 4 685 4 655 4 634 4,666 4 698 4793 1 4 759 4 782 Average%Increase -1.73% -2.09% -0.48% -0.65% -0.45% 0.69% 0.69% 0.6 % 0.59% 0.49% s Middle w 2020-2021 N School Year actual 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 O .. Membership 2,917 2,874 2,830 1 2,747 1 2,671 1 2,601 1 2,558 1 2,511 1 2,473 1 2,489 1 2,505 ego ('Z Average%Increase -1.49% -1.52% 1 -2.94% 1 -2.76% 1 -2.61% 1 -1.68% 1 -1.83% 1 -1.51% 1 0.65% 1 0.65% C � Hi h School School Year 2020-2021 actual 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 2029-2030 2030-2031 Membership 3,932 3,904 3,915 3,906 3,893 3,844 3,721 3,641 3,557 3,438 3,401 C Average%Increase -0.72% 0.28% -0.21% -0.35% -1.27% -3.20% -2.15% -2.29% -3.35% -1.10% y C. N 1 O O lJ �" 58 Section H E. Student / Housing Generation Rate 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition — Student generation rate refers to the number of public school students per housing unit constructed in each school district, as defined in the Student Generation Rate Study completed by TisherBise on October 28, 2014. Housing units include single-family detached, single family attached/duplex, multifamily, and manufactured homes. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District See Attachment II.E.1 See Attachment II.E.1 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: At the January 2014 SAPFOTAC meeting, members discussed the increased number of students generated in both school districts from new development, particularly multifamily housing. The SAPFOTAC recommended further evaluation of the adopted Student Generation Rates and the impacts the number of bedrooms a particular housing type may have on student generation rates. As a result, Orange County entered into a contract with TischlerBise to update the student generation rate analysis. The new student generation rates were approved on May 19, 2015 and are shown in Attachment II.E.1. New rates from the 2014 Student Generation Rates for Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District Report are based on an inventory of recently built units from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013. It should be noted that students are generated from new housing as well as from existing housing where new families have moved in. The CAPS system estimates new development impacts and associated student generation, but it is important to understand that student increases are a composite of both of these factors. This effect can be dramatic and can vary greatly between areas and districts where either new 40 59 Section II housing is dominant or new families move into a large inventory of existing housing stock. 5. Recommendation: No change at this time. 41 60 o' ti TischlerBise Student Generation Rates — 2014 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Schools 0-3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5+ Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Detached 0.61 0.84 1.13 0.84 0-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Attached 0.27 0.42 0.38 Multifamily/Other 0.11 0.47 0.18 Manufactured Home 0.268 0.86 0.78 Weight Average for Chapel HiIllCarrboro School District 0.49 Orange County Schools 0-3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5+ Bedrooms Weighted Average .~ Single-Family Detached 0.35 0.57 0.57 0.44 0-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Attached 0.07 0.17 0.15 Multifamily/Other 0.08 0.67 0.17 Manufactured Home 0.67 0.47 0.52 Weight Average for Orange County School District 0.37 Source:Student Generation Rates for Orange County School District and Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District,TischlerBise,October 28,2014 O Revised N1ay 7,2015 A� �r fD y N N O H+ 61 Section H III. Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process Abstract: The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance process has two distinct components: A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (Process 1) Timeframe: In November of each year, Student Membership and Building Capacity is transmitted from the school districts to the Orange County Board of Commissioners for consideration and approval and used in the following years CIP (e.g. November 15, 2020 membership numbers used to develop a CIP to be considered for adoption in June 2021). Process Framework 1. SAPFOTAC projects future student membership from historical data, current membership and hypothetical growth rates from established methodologies. 2. School Districts and BOCC compare projections to existing capacity and proposed Capital Investment Plan. 3. SAPFOTAC forwards data and projections to all SAPFO partners. 4. School Districts develop Capital Investment Plan Needs Assessment during this process 5. The Capital Investment Plan work sessions and Public Hearings are conducted by the BOCC in the spring of each year. 6. The adoption of CIP that sets forth monies and timeframe for school construction (future capacity) by BOCC. 43 62 Section III School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process 1 - Capital Investment Planning (CIP) Projection Method 1 CIP Approval CAPS System (Historical Membership (Proposed new construction (Certificate of Adequate plus Hypothetical Growth i.e. school capacity added by Public Schools) Rate) number of seats and year) Actual Adjustments (Current year actual replaces y past year membership projections) a 'Historical Membership is a product of students generated from: (1)pre-existing/approved undeveloped lots where new housing is c built, (2) existing housing stock with new families/children, and(3) newly approved housing development(in the future this component will be known as CAPS approved development). n 2The only part of the CAPS System(i.e., computer spreadsheet subdivision tracking) that receives data from the Process 1 CIP a includes the actual membership (November 15 of preceding CIP year) and new school capacity amount(seats) in a specific year pursuant to the CIP. a -s 0 44 63 Section III B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Update (Process 2) Timeframe: The CAPS system is updated approximately November 15 of each year when the school districts report actual membership and `pre-certified' capacity, whether it is CIP associated or prior `joint action' agreement. `Joint action' determinations of changes in capacity due to State rules or other non-construction related items are anticipated to be done prior to the November 15 capacity and membership reporting date. This update may reflect the Board of County Commissioners action on the earlier year Capital Investment Plan(CIP) as it affects capacity and addition of new actual fall membership. The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) stays in effect until the following year —(e.g.: November 15, 2005 to November 14, 2006). New development is originally logged for a certain year. As the CAPS system is updated, each CAPS projection year is `absorbed' by the actual estimate of a given year. Later year CAPS projections of the same development remain in the future year CAPS system accordingly. For example, if a 50-lot subdivision is issued a CAPS, 15 lots may be assigned to "Year 1," 10 lots to "Year 2," 10 lots to "Year 3," 10 lots to "Year 4," and 5 lots to "Year 5." When"Year 1" is updated, the students generated from the 15 lots are absorbed by the actual estimate. The students generated in"Years 2, 3, 4, and 5" are held in the CAPS system and added to the appropriate year when the CAPS system is updated. As previously noted in Section II.C, The City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO and does not require that CAPS be issued prior to approving development activities. Increasing development within this area of the county has the potential to encumber a significant portion of the available capacity within the Orange County School District. Although the SAPFO system is not formally regulated in Mebane, staff monitors development activity and when students enter the school system their enrollment is calculated and used in future school projection needs. Please note that the two processes (CIP and CAPS) are on separate,but parallel tracks. However, the CIP does create a crossover of capacity information between the two processes. For example, the SAPFO system for both school districts that will be established/initiated/ 45 64 Section III certified each year in November and is based on prior year created and/or planned CIP capacity and current school year membership. The SAPFOTAC report including new current year membership and projections are to be used for upcoming CIP development as noted in Process 1. CIP Process 1 (for CIP 2021 - 2031) November 2019—June 2020 (using 2020 SAPFOTAC Report) SAPFO CAPS Process 2 (for SAPFO System 2021 —2022) November 2020 -November 2021 46 65 School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process 2 - Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Allocation 2021 CAPS system is effective November 15, 2020 through November 14, 2021. The system is updated with new membership, CIP capacity changes, and any other BOCC/School District joint action approved capacity prior to November 15, 2020. This information is received within 5 days of November 15 and posted within the next 15 days. This CAPS system recalibration is retroactive to November 15, 2020. CAPS Allocation System CAPS System' 1. Certified Capacity AC = SC — (ADM+NDI+ND2+. . .) b 2 LOS Capacity o 3. Actual Membership 7 4. Year Start Available Capacity N 5. Ongoing Current Available Capacity(includes available n capacity decreases from approved CAPS development by year) 6. CAPS approved development AC>_0 - Issue CAPS a. Total units b. Single Family' AC<0 - Defer CAPS to later date C. Other Housing' c b 1 Student Generation Rates from CAPS housing type create future membership estimate. Please note that this CAPS membership future estimate is c different than the projection based on historical data and projection models used in the CIP process 1. This estimate only captures new development impact,which is the component that the SAPFO can regulate. 0 z AC—Available Capacity- Starts at Annual Update Capacity and reduces as CAPS approved development is entered into the system. 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