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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda - 11-12-20; ITEM 3 - Update on COVID-19 Long Term Recovery Planning 1 ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: November 12, 2020 Action Agenda Item No. 3 SUBJECT: Update on COVID-19 Long Term Recovery Planning DEPARTMENT: County Manager ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: 1. Hagerty Consulting Memorandum Travis Myren — 919-245-2308 2. Hagerty Consulting Presentation 3. Supplemental Questions & Answers Submitted by the Chapel Hill Town Council 4. Economic Impact Assessment Report Draft PURPOSE: To provide an update on the County's COVID-19 Long Term Recovery Planning effort. BACKGROUND: Although the response effort to COVID-19 is ongoing, the County and its municipal partners have allocated a total of $175,000 in CARES Act funding to retain a consultant to support long term recovery planning. As part of the effort, the County has organized over 150 community organizations and representatives to help identify needs and create recommendations that will promote an expeditious and equitable long term recovery while improving the County's resiliency to respond to future events. These organizations involved in the Long Term Recovery Planning process are organized into seven Recovery Support Functions focused on the local economy, the health system, human services, housing, natural and cultural resources, community planning, and public information. With the assistance of the consulting group, these support functions have been asked to characterize and quantify the impact of the pandemic, create potential recovery strategies, and establish recovery priorities using a social justice and racial equity perspective. These strategies will ultimately be presented to each of the governing boards in the County for their consideration and implementation. During the work session, the County's Long Term Recovery consultant, Hagerty Consulting, will present an overview of the project, a status update on the activities that have occurred to date, and a timeline for completing the project. The consultant is presenting the same information to 2 Chapel Hill, Carrboro, and Hillsborough which are actively participating in project management and sharing in the cost of the consultant. A copy of supplemental questions submitted by the Chapel Hill Town Council is attached for additional information and context. Final work products, including recommendations, will be presented to local governing boards in early 2021. FINANCIAL IMPACT: The County has funded the Long Term Recovery consulting work using CARES Act funds and is sharing this cost with the Towns. The County's share of the total cost is $101,500. SOCIAL JUSTICE IMPACT: • GOAL: FOSTER A COMMUNITY CULTURE THAT REJECTS OPPRESSION AND INEQUITY The fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race or color; religious or philosophical beliefs; sex, gender or sexual orientation; national origin or ethnic background; age; military service; disability; and familial, residential or economic status. • GOAL: ENSURE ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY The creation and preservation of infrastructure, policies, programs and funding necessary for residents to provide shelter, food, clothing and medical care for themselves and their dependents. • GOAL: CREATE A SAFE COMMUNITY The reduction of risks from vehicle/traffic accidents, childhood and senior injuries, gang activity, substance abuse and domestic violence. • GOAL: ENABLE FULL CIVIC PARTICIPATION Ensure that Orange County residents are able to engage government through voting and volunteering by eliminating disparities in participation and barriers to participation. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT: • ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND WASTE REDUCTION Initiate policies and programs that: 1) conserve energy; 2) reduce resource consumption; 3) increase the use of recycled and renewable resources; and 4) minimize waste stream impacts on the environment. • CLEAN OR AVOIDED TRANSPORTATION Implement programs that monitor and improve local and regional air quality by: 1) promoting public transportation options; 2) decreasing dependence on single-occupancy vehicles, and 3) otherwise minimizing the need for travel. RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends that the Board receive the report on the status of COVID-19 Long Term Recovery Planning. 3 see MEMO To: Elected Officials of and within Orange County From: Recovery and Transformation Planning Support Team (Hagerty Consulting, Inc.) Date: October 29, 2020 Re: Recovery and Transformation Planning Status Update In early November, the Recovery and Transformation Planning Support Team (Hagerty Consulting, Inc.) will conduct a series of briefings for the elected officials of and within Orange County. This memo provides and overview of what the Planning Support Team will cover in upcoming briefings. The Long-Term Recovery Project is intended to help Orange County navigate long-term recovery from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic through the identification of community needs, establishment of recovery goals and initiatives, and promoting cost recovery best practices among county, municipal, and non-profit organizations. Since the project kicked off in July, the Planning Support Team has completed several project milestones to help achieve recovery goals and objectives, including: • Visioning Workshop on September 17, 2020; • Community Values Survey closed on September 11, 2020; • Recovery Website Launch on September 16, 2020; • Finalization of the COVID-19 Impact Assessment on September 18, 2020; • Recovery Support Function(RSF) Focus Group Meetings concluded October 16, 2020. Through the collection and aggregation of independent research(COVID-19 Impact Assessment), input from recovery stakeholders (Visioning Workshop, Recovery Support Function Focus Groups),and a public-facing survey(Community Values Survey),five preliminary goals have been identified for the Recovery and Transformation Plan: • Address fundamental needs of all residents; • Create safe, stable, and affordable housing solutions; • Promote a dynamic, equitable, and sustainable economic recovery; • Streamline access to community-based resources; and • Combat the negative effects of social distancing. Upcoming planning activities include conducting a Cost Recovery Training for recovery stakeholders; engaging with Black, Indigenous, and people of color (BIPOC) community leaders to support plan development/refinement; prioritizing recovery initiatives; and developing the Recovery and Transformation Plan Framework.These activities will be discussed in greater detail during upcoming briefings, where we would like to hear your perspectives about what matters most for community recovery. We are also interested to know what you think would strengthen the Plan and help each elected body champion its implementation in early 2021. Urgent questions can be directed to ocncrecoveryPhagertyconsulting.com, and more information is available online at www.orangencforward.org. .IHh HAGERTY ORANGE CCXJNTf � � • #�r 'd� me 0 Orange County Recovery and Transformation Planning Project November 2020 54URn OWN p, ' I,H ORANGE COUNTY • • � �� H A G E R T Y NORTH CAROLINA 'ygPeL ` Sri c Project Overview Agenda Planning Status Update Upcoming Recovery Activities 6 Project Intent and Deliverables The Orange County Recovery and Transformation Planning Project is intended to help Orange County and its municipalities navigate recovery from the COVID-ig pandemic. Aw OAMIJ Y' Impact Assessment Recovery and Cost Recovery Training Transformation • • Provide Orange County with • Describe goals, initiatives, • Provide training to county, a broad picture of the and tactics to achieve municipal, and non-profit impact of COVID-19 on community-informed recovery stakeholders to economy, community recovery outcomes. assist in the financial health, housing, and social recovery of COVID-19 services. response and recovery expenditures. 3 1 Elected Officials Briefing IHP H A G E R TY ORANGE COUNTY • • • y (, NORTH C ROLINA 7 • Orange County Recovery Support Functions Individuals and organizations participating in the planning effort are broken into Recovery Support Functions (RSFs) based on field and expertise. Over 3o different public or non-profit organizations participate in planning activities. RSF 1 : Economic RSF 2: Health RSF 3: Human Services Recovery RSF 4: Housing Group RSF 5: Natural and Cultural Resources RSF 6: Community Planning and Capacity Building RSF 7: Intergovernmental Affairs and Public Information Officers 4 1 Elected Officials Briefing .IHD H A G E R T Y ORANGE COUNTY • ANr L NORTH C ROLINA Project Overview Agenda Planning Status Update Upcoming Recovery Activities Create a diverse Recor stakeholder countywid Implement the Describe and group to design goals and plan and quantify the goals and projects in the monitor impacts of initiatives Recovery and community COVID-19. addressing the Transformation needs. impacts of Plan. COVID-19. Elected Officials Briefing 10 • Recovery Activity Update � 41U�s 4 Launched a recovery ytijQr* planning focused lob website to centralize ij 0O Surveyed the Orange Sep information about the Sep County community to recovery 17 Facilitated Visioning inform overarching planning process For the Workshop Foo r recovery values,gaols,and Long-Term Recovery Sep stakeholders to refine initiative-design. Group and broader recovery gaols and to +rr 2020 Public. strengthen stakeholder relationships_ c.1 Assess 4 � { Facilitated focus group 16 Oct meetings with Recovery 1 Support Functions to p further refine recovery Q goals and initiofives_ Finalized the Impact Assessment which details �OpyerY Tr, the impoet of COVID-19 on the Orange County {J community. Provided cost recovery training 30 Oct to eauntyr municipal,and non- profit stakeholders to assist in the financial recovery of COVID-I 9 response and recovery expenditures. 7 Elected Officials Briefing , A,1, H A G E R TY ORANGE COUNTY • • y (, NORTH C ROLINA 11 Key Findings: CommunityValues Survey From August 31 to September 11, 2020, the Long-Term Recovery Group conducted a community survey to gather community input on recovery initiatives and priorities. The survey collected 1,535 responses from community members. The graphics below summarizes the top values of the Orange County community. Other values include environmental stewardship, diversity/inclusion/accessibility, communication and engagement, responsible spending, and safety. Priority Issues Community Values Other(please specify) Other(please specify) Climate change Efficiency - Income inequality Broadband internet availability Leadership Education/Achievement gap Competency Healthcare access Transparency Racial injustice Fairness,social equity, and justice Housing affordability 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80% 8 Elected Officials Briefing , IHP H A G E R TY ORANGE COUNTY • • y (, NORTH C ROLINA 12 Website Launch On September 16, 2020, the Orange County Recovery Planning Website was launched to centralize recovery efforts and actions taken by the group. The website includes an "About" page detailing the Long-Term Recovery Group's purpose and identified Recovery Support Functions. Additionally, the website houses meeting materials, planning documents, project timeline, and a contact submission box for community inquiries or concerns. Moving Orange Homo nnom x°°o�fCeS cv°�a�, moving Orange Contact Us County Forward County Forwartl "°m` P°°"� ""°°"" c°°�°`� Share Your Ideas! ORANGE COUNTY,NORTH CAROLINA Long-Term Recovery Planning The Long-Term Recovery Group is responsible for identifying and addressing community needs through collaboration,across public and private sectors.Your insight is critical to ensuring that community needs Moving Orange County Forward are identified and that thoughtful solutions are implemented as a result.Use the submission form on this page to share your ideas with the Long-Term Recovery Group or to request to get involved. Loam nwra 9 Elected Officials Briefing .Q,1, HAGERTY ORANGE COUNTY NORTH�ROLINA Grb�o 13 Key Findings: Impact Assessment • Black and Latinx communities are contracting COVID-19 at notably disproportionate rates in Orange County, mirroring a similar trend across the United States. • Most individuals who contract COVID-19 are under 49 years old and many are under 30, indicating high infection rates in younger adult populations within Orange County. • Job loss was five percent lower in Orange County than the national average. The industry breakdown of Orange County, with roughly 23.1% of jobs being those in the educational services sector and 16.2% in the healthcare and social assistance sector, may have created stability for the County but statistically camouflage the impact of unemployment in other sectors. • Between January and July 2020, the Orange County Emergency Housing Assistance Fund helped divert 365 households from eviction and/or homelessness, compared to 26 households in 2019 (l000%+ increase). • Moving to an online learning environment has been challenging for many families in Orange County. In 2018, Orange County cited 5,000 households in rural areas that are underserved by broadband internet. 10 1 Elected Officials Briefing , .IHI' H A G E R T Y ORAN HE COUNT YNORT `��• " J I' � \,.,. 14 Recovery and Transformation Goals The Planning Support Team identified five preliminary (draft) recovery goals for Orange County through the Community Values Survey, recovery stakeholder input, and community needs exposed through the COVID-19 Impact Assessment. Long-Term Recovery and Transformation Goals • Address fundamental needs of all residents; • Create safe, stable, and affordable housing solutions; • Promote a dynamic, equitable, and sustainable economic recovery; • Streamline access to community-based resources; and • Combat the negative effects of social distancing. 11 1 Elected Officials Briefing , .IHI' H A G E R T Y ORANGE COUNNn Y `��• " J I' � \,.,. Project Overview Agenda Planning Status Update Upcoming Recovery Activities 16 Upcoming Recovery Activities L Engage BIPOC Communitym Recovery and Transformation Plan low pr Leaders •Work with the Department of Human • Continue to refine initiatives and Rights and Relations to engage BIPOC strategies based on community and community leaders to validate and stakeholder input, to inform the help design the Recovery and Recovery and Transformation Plan. Transformation Plan. 13 1 Elected Officials Briefing , �' IHP H A G E R TY ORANGE COUNTY • • y (, NORTH C ROLINA Thank Kayla Slater Project Manager Michael Levkowitz Deputy Project Manager orangeNCforward .org <pWN Op ,Y�`�- .L I. H A G E R T Y ORANGE COUNTY • • NORTH CAROLINA o �� o�T���s4tia yAPEL N\ krff�ris�� 18 Council Questions Item 12: • Who is involved/has been identified to participate in the upcoming planning activity of engaging BIPOC community leaders? Hagerty Consulting Response: Annette Moore, Director of Orange County Department of Human Rights and Relations, is supporting identification of BIPOC community leaders to engage. Meetings have been scheduled with groups of Latinx, Black, Chinese-Mandarin speaking, and Burmese-and Karen-speaking community leaders. • Did the consultant collect demographic data with the public facing survey? If so, what were the results? Hagerty Consulting Response: Yes, Hagerty did collect some demographic data in the public facing Community Values Survey. Demographic information captured through the survey is summarized below. Approximately 60%of respondents identified as female, while just under 20%of respondents identified as male. 12 respondents selected "other"for gender, while the remaining survey respondents did not provide an answer to the question about gender. Hagerty worked with the Department of Human Rights and Relations to verbally administer the survey to non-native English speakers that would have represented the BIPOC community, however, timing constraints and unforeseen circumstance yielded a lower number of responses from members of those communities than we anticipated. Generally speaking, the lack of diversity in the survey results is what prompted subsequent meetings with BIPOC community leaders;it was important to the consulting team and the project management team that diverse members of the community were able to participate. Race/Ethnicity Responses American Indian or Alaskan Native 6 Asian/Pacific Islander 24 Black or African American 43 Hispanic 27 1 prefer not to answer. 107 Multiple Ethnicities/Other(please specify) 48 White/Caucasian 1034 No Response 246 19 Age Responses 18-24 24 25-34 117 35-44 252 45-54 250 55-64 273 65+ 327 1 prefer not to answer. 71 No Response 196 Under 18 4 • What kinds of organizations were represented in the Visioning Workshop in Sept 2020 (e.g., businesses, non-profits) Hagerty Consulting Response: The September 2020 Visioning Workshop included representation from local and regional government departments, non-profit organizations, academic institutions, and business networks. For a list of the RSF groups, please visit orangencforward.org and see pages 7-8 of this document. • What were the findings of the Recovery Support Function Focus Group meetings? Hagerty Consulting Response: Each of the Recovery Support Function Focus Group Meetings included a review of the overarching draft Recovery and Transformation Plan Goals, which were broadly validated and approved of by attendees. Each group reviewed sector-specific proposed initiatives, developed by the groups themselves and based upon the results of the Impact Assessment and Community Values Survey. Broadly speaking, the Focus Groups helped to identify strategic areas of focus for the Recovery and Transformation Plan, as well as the key challenges that should be anticipated and efforts that should be undertaken to engage the Whole Community in developing and finalizing any long-term plan for Orange County. These goals and thematic areas informed by the Recovery Support Functions will be presented during the upcoming briefing. 20 • What was the demographic breakdown of participants in the Visioning Workshop,the Community Values Survey and the focus groups? Hagerty Consulting Response: Demographic information from the Community Values Survey is included above. We did not capture demographic information of participants in the Visioning Workshop nor the Focus Group meetings, as participation is typically determined by a person's role in the recovery process, which is not typically determined or influenced by demographics. The role of BIPOC Community Leaders and public facing surveys is to provide the perspective that shape the plan, but then subject matter experts from the Long-Term Recovery Group are responsible for designing an implementation approach. For example, we heard from the Latinx community that childcare was especially challenging for their community;now we will take that information to the Social Services Recovery Support Function to ask the implementing organizations (government entities, private non-profits, etc.)how to design strategies that effectively addresses the childcare issues as described by the community. • Regarding the impact assessment detailing the impact of COVID-19 on the Orange County community,was any data recovered on the impact on local businesses? If so, can we be provided with that data? Hagerty Consulting Response: The complete Impact Assessment is available on the long-term recovery planning website (orangencforward.org). However, the attached draft economic impact assessment includes an even more comprehensive suite of data compiled related to the impact Covid-19 has had on local businesses. Please note that this document is still being reviewed and edited by the Economic Recovery Support Function. • Progress Report on County-wide Long-Term Recovery Plan - Is the committee planning to create an agenda to propose to the state legislature for policy changes that would enable/support our local recovery,for instance clean energy policies, strengthened unemployment and heath care policies, etc.? Staff Response: If this is the Council's interest,we can take it back to the Project Management Team for more discussion.The Project Management Team includes staff representatives from Carrboro, Hillsborough, Orange County and Chapel Hill. 21 • During the presentation, I would appreciate understanding how these efforts are connected and aligned with Town efforts. Staff Response:The Project Management Team has been discussing the benefit of recovery strategies and initiatives that have existing staff, programming, planning, etc.This could include both Town efforts, as well as partnerships with other municipalities and the County. Examples of these connections include the: affordable housing planning racial equity planning park planning climate action planning community arts and culture programming partnership to end homelessness (County-wide) The Hagerty will touch more upon this in the presentation. 22 DRAFT Economic Impact Assessment Report August 2020 As part of the communitywide effort to plan for Orange County's long term recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic,the Economic Recovery Support Function Team conducted an Economic Impact Assessment survey of businesses located in Orange County. The survey yielded responses from over 300 businesses. This report summarizes the findings of the survey in five categories: 1. Profile of Respondents 2. Modifications to Business Operations During the Pandemic 3. Impact on Revenue 4. Impact on Employment 5. Revenue and Employment Outlook 6. Use of Pandemic Related Resources 7. Needs Assessment for the Future Key Findings 1. A vast majority of the respondents (87%) are located in a municipality. 2. The respondents largely represented small businesses. Seventy-five percent(75%) of respondents reported pre-pandemic gross revenues of under$1 million. 3. The health of the local economy has suffered. Although some businesses report revenue gains, almost sixty percent (60%) are generating less revenue than one year ago. 4. The businesses that are reporting revenue losses represent severe losses. More than 70%of the businesses reporting losses indicate losses of over 20%. 5. The sector in which a business operates is related to revenue outcomes. Food service and drinking establishments, arts and entertainment venues, and personal services lead the sectors that have experienced the greatest revenue losses. These sectors represent 57%of the businesses reporting losses of 20%or more. 6. The professional service sector has performed well, experiencing the lowest number of losses and the highest number of gains overall. 7. Ownership demographics do not appear to significantly impact revenue outcomes. Woman owned business represent a higher percentage of the revenue gains than they appear in the survey population while businesses owned by non-woman, non-minority owners experienced a higher percentage of revenue loss than they represent in the survey population. Minority owned businesses reported about the same percentage of losses and gains compared to their representation in the survey population. 8. Over 80%of businesses have modified operations in response to the pandemic. The single most popular strategy is increasing online or virtual sales and services. The shift to online and virtual sales and services alone, however, does not generate consistently better revenue outcomes. 1 23 DRAFT 9. Forty-three percent of respondents used furloughs and/or layoffs to reduce payroll expenses between March and August. 10. Over the next three to six months, sixty-nine percent of businesses expect revenue to decrease, and 23%of the respondents expect that decrease to be more than 50%of gross revenues. However, most employers(76%) intend to maintain the size of their current workforce over the same period. Profile of Respondents The Economic Impact Assessment survey yielded 311 responses. Consistent with the County's overall population distribution, most of the responses (53%) came from organizations located in Chapel Hill. Another 58 responses (19%) were from businesses located in Carrboro, 38 responses (12%) came from organizations in Hillsborough, and two responses came from businesses located in the portion of the City of Mebane located in Orange County. In total 84% of total responses came from businesses located in the incorporated municipalities. Five percent (5%) of the responses were from businesses located in the unincorporated part of the County. Survey Respondents by Business Location n=311 ,prow'-- .. . More Than One Location 6% Unincorporated Orange County 5% Outside of Orange County 4% Chapel Hill Mebane 1% 6llllIiiiiiia,_ The survey also asked respondents to identify the zip code in which their headquarters is located. The following map illustrates respondent distribution by zip code. Again,the highest concentration of respondents is located in zip codes that include the Towns of Chapel Hill and Carrboro. 2 24 DRAFT Economic Impact Assessment Responses by Zip Code Caswell County --- ------------------------ 27583 I 2f7 72 + ae 27231 57 ! I e I 27541 i i i i i + r I � r j 27278 I i 27712 '° �t' 2�7243 70A C? i + 27302 — 70 i i 27705 �51 i I I I + r r I — 1 277071 1 1 � NumberofRespvnses 1 5 is r 1 i 27516 27510 50l + - 2 t� + 0 3 L i 27517 0 36 �l.__� � _._.27312 f 0 47 57 - 87 Chatham H 'in_3 mil" 74 County �- UNG NTY A o Mlies 0 3 Planning and Inspe dons Department(BQ No Response 9;2,12020 3 25 DRAFT The survey gathered responses from a variety of different business sectors, representing the diversity of businesses located in Orange County. The table below shows the sectors which yielded ten (10) or more respondents. Up.mber of Respondents Professional Services (finance, insurance, legal, etc) 51 16.4% Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 41 13.2% Food Service and Drinking Places 39 12.5% Retail 29 9.3% Healthcare 22 7.1% Personal Services (hair, nail,fitness centers, etc) 22 7.1% Real Estate/Rental/Leasing 21 6.8% Education 18 5.8% Accommodations 11 3.5% Other Services (HVAC, mechanic, plumbing, etc) 10 3.2% The survey also sought information on the ownership demographics of the respondents. Of the 310 respondents to this question, thirty seven percent(37%) identified their business as woman owned. Approximately nine percent (9%) identified their business as minority owned. 1 Three percent (3%) of the respondents were owned by veterans and two percent (2%) where owned by individuals with a disability. 1 The minority owned business count represents any ownership demographic that included at least one identifier indicating minority ownership. 4 26 DRAFT Ownership Demograhics n=310 N ne of the abov oman Owned rDi�abled ity Owned,Woman Owned Owned ned Owned,Veteran Owned d,Disabled ed ed Minority OA ned,Woman Owned,Ve eran Owned Minority O nerd Woman Owned,Dis bled Owned 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 The majority of the survey respondents were small businesses. Fifty-five percent (55%) indicated pre- pandemic gross revenues of under$500,000 and employment of zero to five employees. If the small business definition is broadened to include pre-pandemic revenues of under$1 million and fewer than ten employees, seventy-five percent (75%) of the total respondents reported gross revenues under$1 million, and sixty-eight percent (68%) had fewer than 10 employees. 5 27 DRAFT Gross Annual Revenues Pre-Pandemic n=301 00 000 $1 Million to$3 Million 13% $3 Million to$5 Million ' S% Under $5 Million to$50 Million 5% Over$50 Million 2% Number of Employees Pre-Pandemic n=311 Fenty-one more to 20 4% -VW Zero to Five Eleven to 15 5% LL Six to Ten The pandemic has affected the operating hours of most businesses. Approximately thirty-eight percent (38%)were operating with normal operating hours while thirty seven percent (37%) were forced to reduce hours of operation. The remaining twenty three percent (23%) were temporarily closed due to safety concerns, state order, or loss of revenue. Five of the respondents, or two percent (2%), have not survived the pandemic. These firms reported permanently closing at some time between March and August of 2020. 6 28 DRAFT Operating Status n=311 140 119 116 120 100 80 60 40 29 23 19 20 0 Open with Open with Temporarily Temporarily Temporarily Permanently normal operating reduced closed due to closed by state closed due to closed hours operating hours safety concerns order loss of revenue Modifications to Operations Most businesses also made one or more modifications to their operations to adapt to the COVID-19 environment. Over eighty percent (80%) used one or more strategies to survive pandemic conditions while only seventeen percent (17%) made no modifications during the pandemic. Not surprisingly, the most common strategies (67%) involved leveraging technology by increasing online or virtual sales and services. The other most common strategy(17%) represented a shift to curbside and home delivery. The chart below shows the top ten individual and combination of strategies that businesses made to their operations. 7 29 DRAFT Top 10 Modifications to Operations n=239 Increased virtual sales or services No modifi ations made Inc eased online sales Clea dingg Protocol Inci eased online 3ales, IncrE ased virtual s3les or services Increased curbside Increaseil curbside, Increased home delivery Increased c irbside, Increased on ine sales Increased c irbside, I creased hon ie delivery, Increased on ine sales, Increased virti ial sales or servic es Increased I creased ho�jrbside, a delivery, Increased one sales 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Impact on Revenue The pandemic's impact on revenue losses is skewed to the extreme. A total of fifty-seven percent (57%) of respondents reported less revenue in 2020 compared to the same time period in 2019. However, of those firms experiencing a decrease in revenue,thirty-eight percent (38%) reported reductions of 50% or more, and over 33% reported a loss between 20%and 50%. This means that of the 162 firms that reported lower revenues of any amount, over seventy percent (70%) of those firms have experienced losses over 20%compared to 2019. The number of businesses reporting revenue increases is more balanced. A total of forty three percent (43%) reported higher revenues compared to 2019. Of those 124 businesses that are outpacing last year's revenue, twenty three percent (23%) reported over a 50% increase, and twenty five percent 8 30 DRAFT (25%) reported increases between 20% and 50%. As a result, about half of the businesses reporting higher revenue during the pandemic have experienced gains of over 20%while the other half reported increases of under 20%. 20. Percentage Change in Revenue Count Percentage Down 0%to 5% 9 3.1% Down 5%to 10% 14 4.9% Down 10%to 20% 23 8.0% Down 20%to 50% 54 18.9% Down More Than 50% 62 21.7% Up 0%to 5% 29 10.1% Up 5%to 10% 12 4.2% Up 10%to 20% 22 7.7% Up 20%to 50% 32 11.2% Up More Than 50% 29 10.1% Grand Total 286 100.0% The sector in which a business operates appears to be directly related to revenue outcomes. Of those firms that reported the most severe revenue reductions of 20% or more, over half of those businesses were engaged in food service and drinking places, arts and entertainment venues, and personal services such as hair salons and fitness centers. Top Ten Sectors Experiencing Revenue Losses of 20% or More n=106 Food Service and Drinking Places 28 Arts,Entertainment and Recreation 17 Personal Services(hair,nail,fitness centers,etc) 15 Retail 11 Professional Services(finance,insurance,legal,etc) Accomodations 8 Other Services(HVAC,mechanic,plumbing,etc) 5 Real Estate/Rental/Leasing 5 Healthcare 5 Education 3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Conversely, businesses that reported revenue increases of 20% or more included professional services such as legal services, accounting services, and others. However, some of the same sectors that 9 31 DRAFT reported the most significant losses are also represented in the sectors that have fared well during the pandemic. Food service and drinking establishments, arts and entertainment venues, and retail shops represent forty-six percent (46%) of the businesses reporting revenue gains, although overall number of those reporting gains in those sectors (25) is less than half of those reporting the most severe losses (56). Top Ten Sectors with Revenue Gains of 20% or More n=54 Professional Services(finance,insurance,legal,etc) 10 Food Service and Drinking Places 9 Arts,Entertainment and Recreation 8 Retail 8 Education 5 Healthcare 4 Personal Services(hair,nail,fitness centers,etc) 4 Transportation 2 Other Services(HVAC,mechanic,plumbing,etc) 2 Real Estate/Rental/Leasing 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Of the 310 respondents to this question, thirty seven percent (37%) identified their business as woman owned. Approximately nine percent (9%) identified their business as minority owned.z Three percent (3%) of the respondents were owned by veterans and two percent (2%)where owned by individuals with a disability. These results can be analyzed by revenue impact to discern economic injury disparities by ownership demographic. The following graphics compare the proportion of total survey responses by ownership demographic to gross revenue outcomes across those same demographics. For example,the percentage of total survey responses from woman owned businesses was approximately 37%. However, woman owned businesses accounted for 33%of revenue losses and 44%of overall revenue gains. As a result, woman owned businesses performed better than their representation in the overall survey population. Revenue"- Ownership DemographicsResponses None of the above 49.0% 54% 43.0% z The minority owned business count represents any ownership demographic that included at least one identifier indicating minority ownership. 10 32 DRAFT Woman Owned 36.6% 33% 44.1% Minority Owned,Woman Owned 4.1% 4% 3.2% Minority Owned 3.8% 4% 4.3% Veteran Owned 1.9% 2% 2.2% Woman Owned,Veteran Owned 1.0% 1% 2.2% Disabled Owned 0.6% 1% 0% Woman Owned, Disabled Owned 0.6% 1% 0% Woman Owned, None of the above 0.3% 1% 0% Minority Owned, Woman Owned, Disabled Owned 0.3% 1% 0% Minority Owned,Woman Owned,Veteran Owned 0.3% 0% 1.1% Grand Total 100.0% 100% 100% Revenue Changes by Ownership Demographics n=310 60.0% I -. 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% Total Responses 20.0% Revenue Losses 10.0% Revenue Gains 0.0% None of Woman Minority Minority Veteran Woman Disabled Woman Woman Minority Minority the Owned Owned, Owned Owned Owned, Owned Owned, Owned, Owned, Owned, above Woman Veteran Disabled None of Woman Woman Owned Owned Owned the Owned, Owned, above Disabled Veteran Owned Owned On the other hand, businesses that identified as "none of the above" experienced a higher percentage of revenue losses compared to their overall representation in the survey population. In general, minority owned, veteran owned, and disabled owned businesses experienced about the same percentage of revenue gains and losses compared to their representation in the overall survey responses. Another way to examine revenue outcomes is to evaluate those outcomes against the types of modifications that businesses have made during the pandemic to determine if some modifications were more successful than others in preserving or increasing revenue. 11 33 DRAFT Those businesses that did not or could not make modifications led the number of firms that reported revenue losses by 20%or more. Businesses that reported higher revenues relied significantly on online and virtual sales and services. However, much like the results by sector, some of the same modifications appear on both sides of the revenue spectrum. Increased virtual sales and services, for example, are the most heavily employed strategies for businesses reporting significant revenue gains, but they are the second most popular modification made by businesses reporting revenue losses. Other strategies such as curbside sales and home delivery also appear on both the revenue increase and revenue decrease charts. Business Modifications Related to Revenue Increases fo 20% or More Increased virtual sales or services 20 No modifications made 8 Increased online sales 6 Increased curbside, Increased home delivery,... 5 Increased online sales, Increased virtual sales or... 3 Increased home delivery, Increased online sales 3 Increased curbside 2 0 5 10 15 20 25 r Business Modifications Realted to Revenue Decreases of 20% or More No modifications made 4 Increased virtual sales or services 22 Increased curbside, Increased online sales 7 Increased online sales 7 Increased curbside 6 Increased curbside, Increased home delivery,... 5 closed 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 This means that the shift to online sales and services alone does not account for consistent revenue outcomes.Twenty two businesses that reported increasing virtual sales and services as the single 12 34 DRAFT operations modification experienced revenue losses of 20%or more, and about an equal number(20) that used the same approach noted revenue increases of 20%or more. Impact on Employment In response to declining revenues and increased uncertainty, forty-two percent (42%) of the survey respondents reduced payroll expenses through furloughs and/or layoffs. Each method was used in approximately equal proportion, although more part time employees were furloughed instead of being laid off. Consistent with the small business profile of the respondents,those furloughs and layoffs largely involved five or fewer employees. Thirty percent (30%) of the firms reporting furloughs furloughed one employee, and seventy percent (70%)furloughed five or fewer employees. Forty two (42) businesses or thirty percent(30%) also reported recalling one or more furloughed employees between March and August of 2020. Of the firms reporting layoffs,twenty-eight percent (28%) laid off one employee, and sixty percent (60%) laid off five or fewer employees. Percentage of Employers that Reduced Employees Y res ­4411 No 13 35 DRAFT Furloughs - Full Time and Part Time 25 20 15 Full Time 10 Part Time 5 . 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 More than 10 Layoffs - Full Time and Part Time 25 20 15 — Full Time 10 Part Time 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 More than 10 14 36 DRAFT Revenue and Employment Outlook The businesses surveyed were also asked to predict their anticipated revenue and employment outcomes over the next three to six months. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of businesses expect revenue to decrease in the next three to six months, and twenty-three percent(23%) of the overall respondents expect that decrease to be more than 50%of revenues collected during the same period in 2019. Fourteen percent (14%) expect revenues to be about the same as in 2019. Seventeen percent (17%) expect higher revenues in the next three to six months, although most of those respondents predict modest increases of less than ten percent. Three to Six Month Revenue Outlook 80 70 70 62 60 58 50 41 40 30 20 19 18 20 11 10 4 0 Decrease by Decrease by Decrease by Decrease by The same Up 10-30% Up 30-50% Up less than Up more than more than 30-50% 10-30% less than 10% 10% 50% 50% The three to six month employment outlook appears to be more stable. A large majority of businesses (76%) expect to maintain the current size of their workforce as of August of 2020. Only two percent (2%) anticipate additional layoffs and furloughs. Consistent with the seventeen percent (17%) of respondents that expect higher revenues in the next three to six months,fifteen percent (15%) of respondents also indicate that they intend to add workers during that timeframe. An additional seven percent (7%) expect to recall currently furloughed employees. 15 37 DRAFT Three to Six Month Employment Outlook Recall furloughed employees 7% Maintain the size of your current workforce Add workers Furlough or layoff additional employees 2% A large majority of respondents (96%) expect to remain open in 2020 while thirteen respondents or four percent (4%) expect to close during the remainder of the calendar year. Plan to Close During 2020 350 294 300 250 200 150 100 50 13 0 No Yes Use of Pandemic Related Resources The business community has effectively accessed the local, state, and federal recovery programs available to sustain operations through the pandemic. Those businesses became aware of the recovery programs through a variety of sources as shown in the pie chart below. 16 38 DRAFT Resource for Recovery Programs Trade• government /Federal government mer MONO :C h:am b�e r o f�co m Local government,State government,Federal government 9% Financial Institution 8% Forty-three percent (43%) of respondents applied for grants. The Economic Injury Disaster programs were the most commonly used grant programs. Although thirty-one (31) survey participants indicated they received a grant through the EIDL program,the EIDL program alone was a loan program, so these respondents likely received grants through the EIDL Advance grant program that was offered along with loan. Likewise, the respondents that indicated an SBA grant were also likely referring to the EIDL Advance program that was administered by the Small Business Administration. The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)was a forgivable loan program that some respondents also identified as a grant. The forgivable nature of the loan was maintained as long as the employer maintained or quickly rehired back to pre-pandemic levels and sixty percent of the loan amount was used for payroll. Twenty five (25) of the respondents were awarded grants through the Orange County Small Business Emergency Grant Program. 17 39 DRAFT Percentage of Businesses Applying for Grants Grant Program Applications Top Ten Programs 35 1 31 30 25 25 20 15 10 9 10 5 5 5 0 001 EIDL County SBA PPP EIDL EIDL, PPP, EIDL EIDL, PPP, PPP, EIDL CARES act Advance County County Advance 18 40 DRAFT Amount of Grant Funding Received 20 18 16 a ,A 14 12 3 m 10 O G! 8 E 6 3 z 4 2 0 pp0 �p0 �p0 ppp ppp ppp �p0 ppp ppp ppp ppp ppp pp0 �p0 ppp ppp ppp ppp ppp ppp ppp A total of ninety-five (95) businesses reported receiving a pandemic related grant. Although the total amount of grants received by local businesses ranged from $0 to nearly$200,000, approximately forty- five percent 45%of the firms that received a pandemic related grant received between $1,000 and $10,000. A larger percentage of businesses applied for loans than for grants (58%compared to 43%). A total of 165 businesses reported receiving a pandemic related loan. Almost all of the loans were from the federally sponsored Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) or the Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) programs. Percentage of Businesses Applying for Loans N ro — Yes _..WA 19 41 DRAFT Number of Businesses Receiving Loans by Program 100 87 80 60 40 26 20 5 0 PPP EIDL and PPP EIDL Bank Number of Businesses by Loan Status 160 138 140 120 100 80 60 40 28 20 " 5 0 All approved Some approved,some All rejected Awaiting a decision rejected The businesses that applied for loans were largely successful in securing those resources. Over seventy- five percent(75%) of the businesses that applied for loans had all of those requests approved. Needs Assessment The final section of the survey solicited feedback on the short term and long term needs expressed by the respondents. As part of the survey design, respondents were allowed to identify up to five pre- populated fields as well as open ended field. This resulted in a variety of single responses and combination of responses. The first question in this section asked about short term needs in the next 30 days. The most common response involved the term "Access" as shown in the word cloud below. This included access to information on COVID regulations, access to the university's reopening plans, and access to personal 20 university ordinances relief stimulus Equipment C1raI7tS polI ics counseling business programs regulations workers/employees/talent spread �apalcity Adequate minority "'71111 opportunities �, sales care normal Technolo`y restaurants again repair opened care reduction much testing a sign deliver full hurry Pay dining employees g Su 7 pllt'S assistance y funcliol! 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The training categories that did receive a small number of responses included technical and technology training, financial training,Training needs were not in particular demand. In an open ended question, sixty-three percent (63%) of marketing training. Restaurants training Over the longer term, survey respondents were provided an open ended question about, "what resources or support services would be most important to improve or transform your businesses for long term vitality?" The most common response involved helping to market local businesses and create more consumer activities in the downtowns. Additional grant and loan support were also noted as being helpful to promote long term viability. 22 Finding video like technotogystaff Technicalyears business planning Updates re-careering Perhaps programs rem°rely effective Regulations program General resources need conducl online Financia# many new assistance count Writing Computer virtualchange software practicessErvices work protocols Let °pen best more etc Guidelines only related use lob Tech Non e reopening person done Safety development Streaming retail Research doom plan public know still legal skills ood Government tree resps uden SWorking adviceg management �iC State sales strategies Accounting cost website Weh risks pgficies needed Operating access Improving Help contact Someone Cov#d Using customers support mar#ceti ng healthcare maintenance safe design Health • 1 l.str =r spaces rant working economy � local business government loans ca ital making term aCCL'SS education funding p money PPE public new support options keeps Economic serve pickup gmpioygGS curbside programs Street taxes media peap#e Onflne Let office planning masks events retail open . more training slaopial m a rket � n Grants about ab#e g back one a rates State saeSpllrCeS help additional Clients Ilke p Y Good Better need rneetin understand finding Arts work virtual customers g spots space lower , safe #ike#y allow relief Rapid campaign dining community qutside financial be rn Vaccine rent free closings tax technology g services home assistance #earning Carrboro rerr�gte G�VID businesses Increased Downtown permanent ____ DRAFT44 The survey asked another open ended question about changes to local policies that would help businesses succeed and thrive in the next year. The most common responses to this question involved allowing businesses to re-open and easing COVID related restrictions, particularly those governing the use of outdoor spaces for bars and restaurants. 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