HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda - 11-12-20; ITEM 3 - Update on COVID-19 Long Term Recovery Planning
ORANGE COUNTY
BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS
ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT
Meeting Date: November 12, 2020
Action Agenda
Item No. 3
SUBJECT: Update on COVID-19 Long Term Recovery Planning
DEPARTMENT: County Manager
ATTACHMENT(S):
1. Hagerty Consulting Memorandum
2. Hagerty Consulting Presentation
3. Supplemental Questions & Answers
Submitted by the Chapel Hill Town
Council
4. Economic Impact Assessment Report
Draft
INFORMATION CONTACT:
Travis Myren – 919-245-2308
PURPOSE: To provide an update on the County’s COVID-19 Long Term Recovery Planning
effort.
BACKGROUND: Although the response effort to COVID-19 is ongoing, the County and its
municipal partners have allocated a total of $175,000 in CARES Act funding to retain a
consultant to support long term recovery planning. As part of the effort, the County has
organized over 150 community organizations and representatives to help identify needs and
create recommendations that will promote an expeditious and equitable long term recovery
while improving the County’s resiliency to respond to future events.
These organizations involved in the Long Term Recovery Planning process are organized into
seven Recovery Support Functions focused on the local economy, the health system, human
services, housing, natural and cultural resources, community planning, and public information.
With the assistance of the consulting group, these support functions have been asked to
characterize and quantify the impact of the pandemic, create potential recovery strategies, and
establish recovery priorities using a social justice and racial equity perspective. These
strategies will ultimately be presented to each of the governing boards in the County for their
consideration and implementation.
During the work session, the County’s Long Term Recovery consultant, Hagerty Consulting, will
present an overview of the project, a status update on the activities that have occurred to date,
and a timeline for completing the project. The consultant is presenting the same information to
1
Chapel Hill, Carrboro, and Hillsborough which are actively participating in project management
and sharing in the cost of the consultant. A copy of supplemental questions submitted by the
Chapel Hill Town Council is attached for additional information and context. Final work
products, including recommendations, will be presented to local governing boards in early 2021.
FINANCIAL IMPACT: The County has funded the Long Term Recovery consulting work using
CARES Act funds and is sharing this cost with the Towns. The County’s share of the total cost
is $101,500.
SOCIAL JUSTICE IMPACT:
• GOAL: FOSTER A COMMUNITY CULTURE THAT REJECTS OPPRESSION AND
INEQUITY
The fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race or color;
religious or philosophical beliefs; sex, gender or sexual orientation; national origin or
ethnic background; age; military service; disability; and familial, residential or economic
status.
• GOAL: ENSURE ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY
The creation and preservation of infrastructure, policies, programs and funding necessary
for residents to provide shelter, food, clothing and medical care for themselves and their
dependents.
• GOAL: CREATE A SAFE COMMUNITY
The reduction of risks from vehicle/traffic accidents, childhood and senior injuries, gang
activity, substance abuse and domestic violence.
• GOAL: ENABLE FULL CIVIC PARTICIPATION
Ensure that Orange County residents are able to engage government through voting and
volunteering by eliminating disparities in participation and barriers to participation.
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT:
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND WASTE REDUCTION
Initiate policies and programs that: 1) conserve energy; 2) reduce resource consumption; 3)
increase the use of recycled and renewable resources; and 4) minimize waste stream
impacts on the environment.
• CLEAN OR AVOIDED TRANSPORTATION
Implement programs that monitor and improve local and regional air quality by: 1) promoting
public transportation options; 2) decreasing dependence on single-occupancy vehicles, and
3) otherwise minimizing the need for travel.
RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends that the Board receive the report on the
status of COVID-19 Long Term Recovery Planning.
2
MEMO
To: Elected Officials of and within Orange County
From: Recovery and Transformation Planning Support Team (Hagerty Consulting, Inc.)
Date: October 29, 2020
Re: Recovery and Transformation Planning Status Update
In early November, the Recovery and Transformation Planning Support Team (Hagerty
Consulting, Inc.) will conduct a series of briefings for the elected officials of and within Orange
County. This memo provides and overview of what the Planning Support Team will cover in
upcoming briefings.
The Long-Term Recovery Project is intended to help Orange County navigate long-term recovery
from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic through the identification of
community needs, establishment of recovery goals and initiatives, and promoting cost recovery
best practices among county, municipal, and non-profit organizations.
Since the project kicked off in July, the Planning Support Team has completed several project
milestones to help achieve recovery goals and objectives, including:
• Visioning Workshop on September 17, 2020;
• Community Values Survey closed on September 11, 2020;
• Recovery Website Launch on September 16, 2020;
• Finalization of the COVID-19 Impact Assessment on September 18, 2020;
• Recovery Support Function (RSF) Focus Group Meetings concluded October 16, 2020.
Through the collection and aggregation of independent research (COVID-19 Impact Assessment),
input from recovery stakeholders (Visioning Workshop, Recovery Support Function Focus
Groups), and a public-facing survey (Community Values Survey), five preliminary goals have been
identified for the Recovery and Transformation Plan:
• Address fundamental needs of all residents;
• Create safe, stable, and affordable housing solutions;
• Promote a dynamic, equitable, and sustainable economic recovery;
• Streamline access to community-based resources; and
• Combat the negative effects of social distancing.
Upcoming planning activities include conducting a Cost Recovery Training for recovery
stakeholders; engaging with Black, Indigenous, and people of color (BIPOC) community leaders
to support plan development/refinement; prioritizing recovery initiatives; and developing the
Recovery and Transformation Plan Framework. These activities will be discussed in greater detail
during upcoming briefings, where we would like to hear your perspectives about what matters
most for community recovery. We are also interested to know what you think would strengthen
the Plan and help each elected body champion its implementation in early 2021.
Urgent questions can be directed to ocncrecovery@hagertyconsulting.com, and more
information is available online at www.orangencforward.org.
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Orange County
Recovery and Transformation Planning Project
November 2020
4
Agenda
Project Overview
Planning Status Update
Upcoming Recovery Activities
5
Impact Assessment
•Provide Orange County with
a broad picture of the
impact of COVID-19 on
economy, community
health, housing, and social
services.
Recovery and
Transformation Plan
•Describe goals, initiatives,
and tactics to achieve
community-informed
recovery outcomes.
Cost Recovery Training
•Provide training to county,
municipal, and non-profit
recovery stakeholders to
assist in the financial
recovery of COVID-19
response and recovery
expenditures.
Project Intent and Deliverables
3 | Elected Officials Briefing
The Orange County Recovery and Transformation Planning Project is intended to help
Orange County and its municipalities navigate recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
6
Orange County Recovery Support
Functions
4 | Elected Officials Briefing
Long-Term
Recovery
Group
RSF 1: Economic
RSF 2: Health
RSF 3: Human Services
RSF 4: Housing
RSF 5: Natural and Cultural Resources
RSF 6: Community Planning and Capacity Building
RSF 7: Intergovernmental Affairs and Public Information Officers
Individuals and organizations participating in the planning effort are broken into Recovery Support
Functions (RSFs) based on field and expertise. Over 30 different public or non-profit organizations
participate in planning activities.
7
Agenda
Project Overview
Planning Status Update
Upcoming Recovery Activities
8
Project Phases
6 | Elected Officials Briefing
Describe and
quantify the
impacts of
COVID-19.
Create a diverse
stakeholder
group to design
goals and
initiatives
addressing the
impacts of
COVID-19.
Record
countywide
goals and
projects in the
Recovery and
Transformation
Plan.
Implement the
plan and
monitor
community
needs.
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 (Phase 4)
9
Recovery Activity Update
7 | Elected Officials Briefing
10
Key Findings: Community Values Survey
From August 31 to September 11, 2020, the Long-Term Recovery Group conducted a community survey
to gather community input on recovery initiatives and priorities. The survey collected 1,535 responses
from community members.
The graphics below summarizes the top values of the Orange County community. Other values include
environmental stewardship, diversity/inclusion/accessibility, communication and engagement,
responsible spending, and safety.
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Housing affordability
Racial injustice
Healthcare access
Education/Achievement gap
Broadband internet availability
Income inequality
Climate change
Other (please specify)
Priority Issues
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Fairness, social equity, and justice
Transparency
Competency
Leadership
Efficiency
Other (please specify)
Community Values
8 | Elected Officials Briefing
11
Website Launch orangeNCforward.org
On September 16, 2020, the Orange County Recovery Planning Website was launched to centralize
recovery efforts and actions taken by the group.
The website includes an “About” page detailing the Long-Term Recovery Group’s purpose and identified
Recovery Support Functions. Additionally, the website houses meeting materials, planning documents,
project timeline, and a contact submission box for community inquiries or concerns.
9 | Elected Officials Briefing
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Key Findings: Impact Assessment
•Black and Latinx communities are contracting COVID-19 at notably disproportionate rates in Orange
County, mirroring a similar trend across the United States.
•Most individuals who contract COVID-19 are under 49 years old and many are under 30, indicating
high infection rates in younger adult populations within Orange County.
•Job loss was five percent lower in Orange County than the national average. The industry breakdown of
Orange County, with roughly 23.1% of jobs being those in the educational services sector and 16.2% in
the healthcare and social assistance sector, may have created stability for the County but statistically
camouflage the impact of unemployment in other sectors.
•Between January and July 2020, the Orange County Emergency Housing Assistance Fund helped
divert 365 households from eviction and/or homelessness, compared to 26 households in 2019
(1000%+ increase).
•Moving to an online learning environment has been challenging for many families in Orange County. In
2018, Orange County cited 5,000 households in rural areas that are underserved by broadband
internet.
10 | Elected Officials Briefing
13
The Planning Support Team identified five preliminary (draft) recovery goals for Orange County through
the Community Values Survey, recovery stakeholder input, and community needs exposed through the
COVID-19 Impact Assessment.
Long-Term Recovery and Transformation Goals
•Address fundamental needs of all residents;
•Create safe, stable, and affordable housing solutions;
•Promote a dynamic, equitable, and sustainable economic recovery;
•Streamline access to community-based resources; and
•Combat the negative effects of social distancing.
11 | Elected Officials Briefing
Recovery and Transformation Goals
14
Agenda
Project Overview
Planning Status Update
Upcoming Recovery Activities
15
Upcoming Recovery Activities
13 | Elected Officials Briefing
Engage BIPOC Community
Leaders
•Work with the Department of Human
Rights and Relations to engage BIPOC
community leaders to validate and
help design the Recovery and
Transformation Plan.
Recovery and Transformation Plan
•Continue to refine initiatives and
strategies based on community and
stakeholder input, to inform the
Recovery and Transformation Plan.
16
Thank You!
Kayla Slater
Project Manager
Michael Levkowitz
Deputy Project Manager
orangeNCforward.org
17
Council Questions
Item 12:
• Who is involved/has been identified to participate in the upcoming planning activity of engaging
BIPOC community leaders?
Hagerty Consulting Response:
Annette Moore, Director of Orange County Department of Human Rights and Relations, is
supporting identification of BIPOC community leaders to engage. Meetings have been scheduled
with groups of Latinx, Black, Chinese-Mandarin speaking, and Burmese- and Karen-speaking
community leaders.
• Did the consultant collect demographic data with the public facing survey? If so, what were the
results?
Hagerty Consulting Response:
Yes, Hagerty did collect some demographic data in the public facing Community Values Survey.
Demographic information captured through the survey is summarized below.
Approximately 60% of respondents identified as female, while just under 20% of respondents
identified as male. 12 respondents selected “other” for gender, while the remaining survey
respondents did not provide an answer to the question about gender.
Hagerty worked with the Department of Human Rights and Relations to verbally administer the
survey to non-native English speakers that would have represented the BIPOC community,
however, timing constraints and unforeseen circumstance yielded a lower number of responses
from members of those communities than we anticipated.
Generally speaking, the lack of diversity in the survey results is what prompted subsequent
meetings with BIPOC community leaders; it was important to the consulting team and the
project management team that diverse members of the community were able to participate.
Race/Ethnicity Responses
American Indian or Alaskan Native 6
Asian / Pacific Islander 24
Black or African American 43
Hispanic 27
I prefer not to answer. 107
Multiple Ethnicities / Other (please specify) 48
White / Caucasian 1034
No Response 246
18
Age Responses
18-24 24
25-34 117
35-44 252
45-54 250
55-64 273
65+ 327
I prefer not to answer. 71
No Response 196
Under 18 4
• What kinds of organizations were represented in the Visioning Workshop in Sept 2020 (e.g.,
businesses, non-profits)
Hagerty Consulting Response:
The September 2020 Visioning Workshop included representation from local and regional
government departments, non-profit organizations, academic institutions, and business
networks. For a list of the RSF groups, please visit orangencforward.org and see pages 7-8 of this
document.
• What were the findings of the Recovery Support Function Focus Group meetings?
Hagerty Consulting Response:
Each of the Recovery Support Function Focus Group Meetings included a review of the
overarching draft Recovery and Transformation Plan Goals, which were broadly validated and
approved of by attendees. Each group reviewed sector-specific proposed initiatives, developed by
the groups themselves and based upon the results of the Impact Assessment and Community
Values Survey.
Broadly speaking, the Focus Groups helped to identify strategic areas of focus for the Recovery
and Transformation Plan, as well as the key challenges that should be anticipated and efforts
that should be undertaken to engage the Whole Community in developing and finalizing any
long-term plan for Orange County. These goals and thematic areas informed by the Recovery
Support Functions will be presented during the upcoming briefing.
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• What was the demographic breakdown of participants in the Visioning Workshop, the
Community Values Survey and the focus groups?
Hagerty Consulting Response:
Demographic information from the Community Values Survey is included above. We did not
capture demographic information of participants in the Visioning Workshop nor the Focus Group
meetings, as participation is typically determined by a person’s role in the recovery process,
which is not typically determined or influenced by demographics.
The role of BIPOC Community Leaders and public-facing surveys is to provide the perspective that
shape the plan, but then subject matter experts from the Long-Term Recovery Group are
responsible for designing an implementation approach. For example, we heard from the Latinx
community that childcare was especially challenging for their community; now we will take that
information to the Social Services Recovery Support Function to ask the implementing
organizations (government entities, private non-profits, etc.) how to design strategies that
effectively addresses the childcare issues as described by the community.
• Regarding the impact assessment detailing the impact of COVID-19 on the Orange County
community, was any data recovered on the impact on local businesses? If so, can we be
provided with that data?
Hagerty Consulting Response:
The complete Impact Assessment is available on the long-term recovery planning website
(orangencforward.org). However, the attached draft economic impact assessment includes an
even more comprehensive suite of data compiled related to the impact Covid-19 has had on local
businesses. Please note that this document is still being reviewed and edited by the Economic
Recovery Support Function.
• Progress Report on County-wide Long-Term Recovery Plan - Is the committee planning to create
an agenda to propose to the state legislature for policy changes that would enable/support our
local recovery, for instance clean energy policies, strengthened unemployment and heath care
policies, etc.?
Staff Response: If this is the Council’s interest, we can take it back to the Project Management
Team for more discussion. The Project Management Team includes staff representatives from
Carrboro, Hillsborough, Orange County and Chapel Hill.
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• During the presentation, I would appreciate understanding how these efforts are connected and
aligned with Town efforts.
Staff Response: The Project Management Team has been discussing the benefit of recovery
strategies and initiatives that have existing staff, programming, planning, etc. This could include
both Town efforts, as well as partnerships with other municipalities and the County. Examples
of these connections include the:
affordable housing planning
racial equity planning
park planning
climate action planning
community arts and culture programming
partnership to end homelessness (County-wide)
The Hagerty will touch more upon this in the presentation.
21
DRAFT
1
Economic Impact Assessment Report
August 2020
As part of the communitywide effort to plan for Orange County’s long term recovery from the COVID-19
pandemic, the Economic Recovery Support Function Team conducted an Economic Impact Assessment
survey of businesses located in Orange County.
The survey yielded responses from over 300 businesses. This report summarizes the findings of the
survey in five categories:
1. Profile of Respondents
2. Modifications to Business Operations During the Pandemic
3. Impact on Revenue
4. Impact on Employment
5. Revenue and Employment Outlook
6. Use of Pandemic Related Resources
7. Needs Assessment for the Future
Key Findings
1. A vast majority of the respondents (87%) are located in a municipality.
2. The respondents largely represented small businesses. Seventy-five percent (75%) of
respondents reported pre-pandemic gross revenues of under $1 million.
3. The health of the local economy has suffered. Although some businesses report revenue gains,
almost sixty percent (60%) are generating less revenue than one year ago.
4. The businesses that are reporting revenue losses represent severe losses. More than 70% of the
businesses reporting losses indicate losses of over 20%.
5. The sector in which a business operates is related to revenue outcomes. Food service and
drinking establishments, arts and entertainment venues, and personal services lead the sectors
that have experienced the greatest revenue losses. These sectors represent 57% of the
businesses reporting losses of 20% or more.
6. The professional service sector has performed well, experiencing the lowest number of losses
and the highest number of gains overall.
7. Ownership demographics do not appear to significantly impact revenue outcomes. Woman
owned business represent a higher percentage of the revenue gains than they appear in the
survey population while businesses owned by non-woman, non-minority owners experienced a
higher percentage of revenue loss than they represent in the survey population. Minority
owned businesses reported about the same percentage of losses and gains compared to their
representation in the survey population.
8. Over 80% of businesses have modified operations in response to the pandemic. The single most
popular strategy is increasing online or virtual sales and services. The shift to online and virtual
sales and services alone, however, does not generate consistently better revenue outcomes.
22
DRAFT
2
9. Forty-three percent of respondents used furloughs and/or layoffs to reduce payroll expenses
between March and August.
10. Over the next three to six months, sixty-nine percent of businesses expect revenue to decrease,
and 23% of the respondents expect that decrease to be more than 50% of gross revenues.
However, most employers (76%) intend to maintain the size of their current workforce over the
same period.
Profile of Respondents
The Economic Impact Assessment survey yielded 311 responses. Consistent with the County’s overall
population distribution, most of the responses (53%) came from organizations located in Chapel Hill.
Another 58 responses (19%) were from businesses located in Carrboro, 38 responses (12%) came from
organizations in Hillsborough, and two responses came from businesses located in the portion of the
City of Mebane located in Orange County. In total 84% of total responses came from businesses located
in the incorporated municipalities. Five percent (5%) of the responses were from businesses located in
the unincorporated part of the County.
The survey also asked respondents to identify the zip code in which their headquarters is located. The
following map illustrates respondent distribution by zip code. Again, the highest concentration of
respondents is located in zip codes that include the Towns of Chapel Hill and Carrboro.
Chapel Hill
53%
Carrboro
19% Hillsborough
12% More Than One Location
6%
Unincorporated Orange
County
5%
Outside of Orange County
4%
Mebane
1%
Survey Respondents by Business Location
n=311
23
DRAFT
3
24
DRAFT
4
The survey gathered responses from a variety of different business sectors, representing the diversity of
businesses located in Orange County. The table below shows the sectors which yielded ten (10) or more
respondents.
Primary Sector Number of Respondents Percentage
Professional Services (finance, insurance, legal, etc) 51 16.4%
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 41 13.2%
Food Service and Drinking Places 39 12.5%
Retail 29 9.3%
Healthcare 22 7.1%
Personal Services (hair, nail, fitness centers, etc) 22 7.1%
Real Estate/Rental/Leasing 21 6.8%
Education 18 5.8%
Accommodations 11 3.5%
Other Services (HVAC, mechanic, plumbing, etc) 10 3.2%
The survey also sought information on the ownership demographics of the respondents. Of the 310
respondents to this question, thirty seven percent (37%) identified their business as woman owned.
Approximately nine percent (9%) identified their business as minority owned. 1 Three percent (3%) of
the respondents were owned by veterans and two percent (2%) where owned by individuals with a
disability.
1 The minority owned business count represents any ownership demographic that included at least one identifier indicating minority
ownership.
25
DRAFT
5
The majority of the survey respondents were small businesses. Fifty-five percent (55%) indicated pre-
pandemic gross revenues of under $500,000 and employment of zero to five employees. If the small
business definition is broadened to include pre-pandemic revenues of under $1 million and fewer than
ten employees, seventy-five percent (75%) of the total respondents reported gross revenues under $1
million, and sixty-eight percent (68%) had fewer than 10 employees.
Minority Owned, Woman
Owned, Disabled Owned
Minority Owned, Woman
Owned, Veteran Owned
Disabled Owned
Woman Owned, Disabled
Owned
Woman Owned, Veteran
Owned
Veteran Owned
Minority Owned
Minority Owned, Woman
Owned
Woman Owned
None of the above
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Ownership Demograhics
n=310
26
DRAFT
6
The pandemic has affected the operating hours of most businesses. Approximately thirty-eight percent
(38%) were operating with normal operating hours while thirty seven percent (37%) were forced to
reduce hours of operation. The remaining twenty three percent (23%) were temporarily closed due to
safety concerns, state order, or loss of revenue. Five of the respondents, or two percent (2%), have not
survived the pandemic. These firms reported permanently closing at some time between March and
August of 2020.
Under $500,000
55%
$500,000 - $1 Million
20%
$1 Million
to $3
Million
13%
$3 Million to $5 Million
5%
$5 Million to $50 Million
5%
Over $50 Million
2%
Gross Annual Revenues Pre-Pandemic
n=301
Zero to Five
57%
Six to Ten
11%
Eleven to 15
5%
Sixteen to 20
4%
Twenty-one or more
23%
Number of Employees Pre-Pandemic
n=311
27
DRAFT
7
Modifications to Operations
Most businesses also made one or more modifications to their operations to adapt to the COVID-19
environment. Over eighty percent (80%) used one or more strategies to survive pandemic conditions
while only seventeen percent (17%) made no modifications during the pandemic. Not surprisingly, the
most common strategies (67%) involved leveraging technology by increasing online or virtual sales and
services. The other most common strategy (17%) represented a shift to curbside and home delivery.
The chart below shows the top ten individual and combination of strategies that businesses made to
their operations.
119 116
29 23 19
5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Open with
normal operating
hours
Open with
reduced
operating hours
Temporarily
closed due to
safety concerns
Temporarily
closed by state
order
Temporarily
closed due to
loss of revenue
Permanently
closed
Operating Status
n=311
28
DRAFT
8
Impact on Revenue
The pandemic’s impact on revenue losses is skewed to the extreme. A total of fifty-seven percent (57%)
of respondents reported less revenue in 2020 compared to the same time period in 2019. However, of
those firms experiencing a decrease in revenue, thirty-eight percent (38%) reported reductions of 50%
or more, and over 33% reported a loss between 20% and 50%. This means that of the 162 firms that
reported lower revenues of any amount, over seventy percent (70%) of those firms have experienced
losses over 20% compared to 2019.
The number of businesses reporting revenue increases is more balanced. A total of forty three percent
(43%) reported higher revenues compared to 2019. Of those 124 businesses that are outpacing last
year’s revenue, twenty three percent (23%) reported over a 50% increase, and twenty five percent
Increased curbside,
Increased home delivery,
Increased online sales
Increased curbside,
Increased home delivery,
Increased online sales,
Increased virtual sales or
services
Increased curbside,
Increased online sales
Increased curbside,
Increased home delivery
Increased curbside
Increased online sales,
Increased virtual sales or
services
Cleaning Protocols
Increased online sales
No modifications made
Increased virtual sales or
services
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Top 10 Modifications to Operations
n=239
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DRAFT
9
(25%) reported increases between 20% and 50%. As a result, about half of the businesses reporting
higher revenue during the pandemic have experienced gains of over 20% while the other half reported
increases of under 20%.
20. Percentage Change in Revenue Count Percentage
Down 0% to 5% 9 3.1%
Down 5% to 10% 14 4.9%
Down 10% to 20% 23 8.0%
Down 20% to 50% 54 18.9%
Down More Than 50% 62 21.7%
Up 0% to 5% 29 10.1%
Up 5% to 10% 12 4.2%
Up 10% to 20% 22 7.7%
Up 20% to 50% 32 11.2%
Up More Than 50% 29 10.1%
Grand Total 286 100.0%
The sector in which a business operates appears to be directly related to revenue outcomes. Of those
firms that reported the most severe revenue reductions of 20% or more, over half of those businesses
were engaged in food service and drinking places, arts and entertainment venues, and personal services
such as hair salons and fitness centers.
Conversely, businesses that reported revenue increases of 20% or more included professional services
such as legal services, accounting services, and others. However, some of the same sectors that
3
5
5
5
8
9
11
15
17
28
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Education
Healthcare
Real Estate/Rental/Leasing
Other Services (HVAC, mechanic, plumbing, etc)
Accomodations
Professional Services (finance, insurance, legal, etc)
Retail
Personal Services (hair, nail, fitness centers, etc)
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
Food Service and Drinking Places
Top Ten Sectors Experiencing Revenue Losses of
20% or More
n=106
30
DRAFT
10
reported the most significant losses are also represented in the sectors that have fared well during the
pandemic. Food service and drinking establishments, arts and entertainment venues, and retail shops
represent forty-six percent (46%) of the businesses reporting revenue gains, although overall number of
those reporting gains in those sectors (25) is less than half of those reporting the most severe losses
(56).
Of the 310 respondents to this question, thirty seven percent (37%) identified their business as woman
owned. Approximately nine percent (9%) identified their business as minority owned. 2 Three percent
(3%) of the respondents were owned by veterans and two percent (2%) where owned by individuals
with a disability.
These results can be analyzed by revenue impact to discern economic injury disparities by ownership
demographic. The following graphics compare the proportion of total survey responses by ownership
demographic to gross revenue outcomes across those same demographics. For example, the
percentage of total survey responses from woman owned businesses was approximately 37%.
However, woman owned businesses accounted for 33% of revenue losses and 44% of overall revenue
gains. As a result, woman owned businesses performed better than their representation in the overall
survey population.
Ownership Demographics
Total
Responses
Revenue
Losses
Revenue
Gains
None of the above 49.0% 54% 43.0%
2 The minority owned business count represents any ownership demographic that included at least one identifier indicating minority
ownership.
2
2
2
4
4
5
8
8
9
10
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Real Estate/Rental/Leasing
Other Services (HVAC, mechanic, plumbing, etc)
Transportation
Personal Services (hair, nail, fitness centers, etc)
Healthcare
Education
Retail
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
Food Service and Drinking Places
Professional Services (finance, insurance, legal, etc)
Top Ten Sectors with Revenue Gains of 20% or More
n=54
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DRAFT
11
Woman Owned 36.6% 33% 44.1%
Minority Owned, Woman Owned 4.1% 4% 3.2%
Minority Owned 3.8% 4% 4.3%
Veteran Owned 1.9% 2% 2.2%
Woman Owned, Veteran Owned 1.0% 1% 2.2%
Disabled Owned 0.6% 1% 0%
Woman Owned, Disabled Owned 0.6% 1% 0%
Woman Owned, None of the above 0.3% 1% 0%
Minority Owned, Woman Owned, Disabled
Owned 0.3% 1% 0%
Minority Owned, Woman Owned, Veteran Owned 0.3% 0% 1.1%
Grand Total 100.0% 100% 100%
On the other hand, businesses that identified as “none of the above” experienced a higher percentage
of revenue losses compared to their overall representation in the survey population. In general,
minority owned, veteran owned, and disabled owned businesses experienced about the same
percentage of revenue gains and losses compared to their representation in the overall survey
responses.
Another way to examine revenue outcomes is to evaluate those outcomes against the types of
modifications that businesses have made during the pandemic to determine if some modifications were
more successful than others in preserving or increasing revenue.
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
None of
the
above
Woman
Owned
Minority
Owned,
Woman
Owned
Minority
Owned
Veteran
Owned
Woman
Owned,
Veteran
Owned
Disabled
Owned
Woman
Owned,
Disabled
Owned
Woman
Owned,
None of
the
above
Minority
Owned,
Woman
Owned,
Disabled
Owned
Minority
Owned,
Woman
Owned,
Veteran
Owned
Revenue Changes by Ownership Demographics
n=310
Total Responses
Revenue Losses
Revenue Gains
32
DRAFT
12
Those businesses that did not or could not make modifications led the number of firms that reported
revenue losses by 20% or more. Businesses that reported higher revenues relied significantly on online
and virtual sales and services. However, much like the results by sector, some of the same modifications
appear on both sides of the revenue spectrum. Increased virtual sales and services, for example, are the
most heavily employed strategies for businesses reporting significant revenue gains, but they are the
second most popular modification made by businesses reporting revenue losses. Other strategies such
as curbside sales and home delivery also appear on both the revenue increase and revenue decrease
charts.
This means that the shift to online sales and services alone does not account for consistent revenue
outcomes. Twenty two businesses that reported increasing virtual sales and services as the single
2
3
3
5
6
8
20
0 5 10 15 20 25
Increased curbside
Increased home delivery, Increased online sales
Increased online sales, Increased virtual sales or…
Increased curbside, Increased home delivery,…
Increased online sales
No modifications made
Increased virtual sales or services
Business Modifications Related to Revenue
Increases fo 20% or More
4
5
6
7
7
22
24
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
closed
Increased curbside, Increased home delivery,…
Increased curbside
Increased online sales
Increased curbside, Increased online sales
Increased virtual sales or services
No modifications made
Business Modifications Realted to Revenue
Decreases of 20% or More
33
DRAFT
13
operations modification experienced revenue losses of 20% or more, and about an equal number (20)
that used the same approach noted revenue increases of 20% or more.
Impact on Employment
In response to declining revenues and increased uncertainty, forty-two percent (42%) of the survey
respondents reduced payroll expenses through furloughs and/or layoffs. Each method was used in
approximately equal proportion, although more part time employees were furloughed instead of being
laid off.
Consistent with the small business profile of the respondents, those furloughs and layoffs largely
involved five or fewer employees. Thirty percent (30%) of the firms reporting furloughs furloughed one
employee, and seventy percent (70%) furloughed five or fewer employees. Forty two (42) businesses or
thirty percent (30%) also reported recalling one or more furloughed employees between March and
August of 2020.
Of the firms reporting layoffs, twenty-eight percent (28%) laid off one employee, and sixty percent (60%)
laid off five or fewer employees.
No
58%
Yes
42%
Percentage of Employers that Reduced Employees
34
DRAFT
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 More than
10
Furloughs - Full Time and Part Time
Full Time
Part Time
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 More
than 10
Layoffs - Full Time and Part Time
Full Time
Part Time
35
DRAFT
15
Revenue and Employment Outlook
The businesses surveyed were also asked to predict their anticipated revenue and employment
outcomes over the next three to six months. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of businesses expect revenue to
decrease in the next three to six months, and twenty-three percent (23%) of the overall respondents
expect that decrease to be more than 50% of revenues collected during the same period in 2019.
Fourteen percent (14%) expect revenues to be about the same as in 2019. Seventeen percent (17%)
expect higher revenues in the next three to six months, although most of those respondents predict
modest increases of less than ten percent.
The three to six month employment outlook appears to be more stable. A large majority of businesses
(76%) expect to maintain the current size of their workforce as of August of 2020. Only two percent
(2%) anticipate additional layoffs and furloughs. Consistent with the seventeen percent (17%) of
respondents that expect higher revenues in the next three to six months, fifteen percent (15%) of
respondents also indicate that they intend to add workers during that timeframe. An additional seven
percent (7%) expect to recall currently furloughed employees.
70
62 58
19
41
18
11
20
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Decrease by
more than
50%
Decrease by
30-50%
Decrease by
10-30%
Decrease by
less than 10%
The same Up 10-30%Up 30-50%Up less than
10%
Up more than
50%
Three to Six Month Revenue Outlook
36
DRAFT
16
A large majority of respondents (96%) expect to remain open in 2020 while thirteen respondents or four
percent (4%) expect to close during the remainder of the calendar year.
Use of Pandemic Related Resources
The business community has effectively accessed the local, state, and federal recovery programs
available to sustain operations through the pandemic. Those businesses became aware of the recovery
programs through a variety of sources as shown in the pie chart below.
Add workers
15%
Furlough or layoff
additional employees
2%
Maintain the size of your
current workforce
76%
Recall furloughed
employees
7%
Three to Six Month Employment Outlook
294
13
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
No Yes
Plan to Close During 2020
37
DRAFT
17
Forty-three percent (43%) of respondents applied for grants. The Economic Injury Disaster programs
were the most commonly used grant programs. Although thirty-one (31) survey participants indicated
they received a grant through the EIDL program, the EIDL program alone was a loan program, so these
respondents likely received grants through the EIDL Advance grant program that was offered along with
loan. Likewise, the respondents that indicated an SBA grant were also likely referring to the EIDL
Advance program that was administered by the Small Business Administration.
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was a forgivable loan program that some respondents also
identified as a grant. The forgivable nature of the loan was maintained as long as the employer
maintained or quickly rehired back to pre-pandemic levels and sixty percent of the loan amount was
used for payroll.
Twenty five (25) of the respondents were awarded grants through the Orange County Small Business
Emergency Grant Program.
None
34%
Chamber of Commerce
16%
Trade Organization(s)
13%
Local
government
11%
Federal
government
9%
Local government, State
government, Federal
government
9%
Financial
Institution
8%
Resource for Recovery Programs
38
DRAFT
18
Yes
43%
No
57%
Percentage of Businesses Applying for Grants
31
25
10 9
6 6
3 2 2 2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
EIDL County SBA PPP EIDL
Advance
EIDL,
County
PPP, EIDL EIDL, PPP,
County
PPP, EIDL
Advance
CARES act
Grant Program Applications
Top Ten Programs
39
DRAFT
19
A total of ninety-five (95) businesses reported receiving a pandemic related grant. Although the total
amount of grants received by local businesses ranged from $0 to nearly $200,000, approximately forty-
five percent 45% of the firms that received a pandemic related grant received between $1,000 and
$10,000.
A larger percentage of businesses applied for loans than for grants (58% compared to 43%). A total of
165 businesses reported receiving a pandemic related loan. Almost all of the loans were from the
federally sponsored Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) or the Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL)
programs.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Number of Businesses Amount of Grant Funding Received
Yes
58%
No
42%
Percentage of Businesses Applying for Loans
40
DRAFT
20
The businesses that applied for loans were largely successful in securing those resources. Over seventy-
five percent (75%) of the businesses that applied for loans had all of those requests approved.
Needs Assessment
The final section of the survey solicited feedback on the short term and long term needs expressed by
the respondents. As part of the survey design, respondents were allowed to identify up to five pre-
populated fields as well as open ended field. This resulted in a variety of single responses and
combination of responses.
The first question in this section asked about short term needs in the next 30 days. The most common
response involved the term “Access” as shown in the word cloud below. This included access to
information on COVID regulations, access to the university’s reopening plans, and access to personal
87
32 26
5
0
20
40
60
80
100
PPP EIDL and PPP EIDL Bank
Number of Businesses Receiving Loans by
Program
138
28
11 5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
All approved Some approved, some
rejected
All rejected Awaiting a decision
Number of Businesses by Loan Status
41
DRAFT
21
protective equipment and supplies. The single most identified need was for additional grant support
followed by marketing support and regulatory relief.
In the next three to six months, the term “Access” is also predominant in the responses. However, over
the this longer term, respondents more frequently expressed the need for marketing support, access to
information on stimulus programs, access to supplies and materials, technical assistance, and
technology support.
42
DRAFT
22
Training needs were not in particular demand. In an open ended question, sixty-three percent (63%) of
the respondents indicated no need for training for themselves or their employees. The training
categories that did receive a small number of responses included technical and technology training,
financial training, and marketing training.
Over the longer term, survey respondents were provided an open ended question about, “what
resources or support services would be most important to improve or transform your businesses for
long term vitality?” The most common response involved helping to market local businesses and create
more consumer activities in the downtowns. Additional grant and loan support were also noted as
being helpful to promote long term viability.
43
DRAFT
23
The survey asked another open ended question about changes to local policies that would help
businesses succeed and thrive in the next year. The most common responses to this question involved
allowing businesses to re-open and easing COVID related restrictions, particularly those governing the
use of outdoor spaces for bars and restaurants. Respondents also indicated that tax relief would help
sustain operations.
Longer term local policy changes included more downtown parking, marketing support, tax relief, and
the long term relaxation of COVID related restrictions.
44
DRAFT
24
Finally, respondents were asked to share any lessons learned through the pandemic that other
businesses or government agencies may find helpful or instructive to the recovery process. These
responses focused on planning ahead, being flexible about how goods and services are delivered and
where employees work, and being able leverage technology to quickly pivot to online/remote platforms.
45