HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda 02-25-20 Attachment 2C - School Joint Action Committee Update -------------------------------------------------------------
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ORANGE COUNTY
NORTH CAROLINA
Item 1
School Joint Action Committee (SJAC) Update
- Changes in Class Size and Pre-K Impacts
Orange County Board of Commissioners Work Session
February 11 , 2020
Background
Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO)
Outlines criteria for maintaining a two part system including:
Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) linked to the needs identified by
student projections and available capacity
Issuing Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) for new
residential developments
Purpose is to ensure that new residential growth within the county
occurs at a pace that allows the County and school districts to
provide adequate school facilities to serve students from the new
developments.
Building capacity shall be determined by a joint action of the School
Boards and Orange County Board of Commissioners.
Includes changes in class size ratios
Purpose
The SJAC is a short-term committee comprised of elected officials from the
Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Board of Education, Orange County Board
of Education, and Orange County Board of Commissioners. Appointed
members include:
Rani Dasi, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Board of Education
Dr. Stephen Halkiotis, Orange County Board of Education
Penny Rich, Orange County Board of Commissioners
SJAC also includes staff support from Orange County Managers Office,
Orange County Planning Department, Orange County Schools, and
Chapel Hill — Carrboro City Schools
To discuss legislative implications (i.e. class size impacts to school capacity)
for inclusion into the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO)
projections and provide recommendations on how/when to implement.
Background
SJAC have conducted three meetings to review impacts and options before
determining how to implement elementary school class size reductions for
SAPFO purposes.
January 31 — Reviewed changes in class size ratios outlined in House Bills 13 and
90 2019 - 2020 1:19
2020 — 2021 1:18
2021 — 2022 1:17
March 8 — Reviewed student projections and potential impacts resulting from
changes in class size ratios
April 10 — Reviewed implementation options
Identified concerns with Pre-K classroom capacities being included in total elementary
school capacity numbers. If coupled with the actual Pre-K use of school space (which is
not part of the SAPFO capacity standard) the problem is worsened.
Student CapacityProjectionsand
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Class Size Averages
CHCCS Elementary Student Projections 1:21 1:20 1:20 1:19 1:18 1:17
School Year 2016-17 2017-18 1 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-272027-282028-29
Actual 5,567 5,522 5,471
Average 5,448 5,444 5,474 5,498 5,557 5,606 5,653 5,700 5,745 5,787
Annual Change-Increase(Decrease)in Actual & 66 (45) (51) (74) (4) 30 24 59 49 47 47 45 42
Projected Membership)
Capacity-100%Level of Service(LOS) 5,829 5,664 5,924 5,746 5,568 5,390 5,390 5,390 5,390 5,390 5,390 5,390 5,390
Number of Students,Actual and Projected,Over (262) (142) (453) (298) 1 (124) 84 108 167 216 263 310 355 397
Under 100% LOS
Capacity-105%Level of Service(LOS) 6,120 5,947 6,220 6,033 5,846 5,660 5,660 5,660 5,660 5,660 5,660 5,660 5,660
Number of Students,Actual and Projected,Over
Under 105%LOS (553) (425) (749) (585) (402) (185) (162) (103) (53) (6) 41 85 128
Actual-%Level of Service 95.5% 97.5% 92.4%
Average-%Level of Service 94.8% 1 97.8% 101.6% 102.0% 103.1% 104.0% 1 104.9% 1105.8%1106.6%1107.14-%/.
Annual Student Growth Rate 1.20% -0.81% -0.92% -0.41% -0.08% 0.55% 0.43% 1.07% 0.89% 0.84% 0.83% 0.78% 0.7
■ Capacity based on School Classrooms and Capacity Calculations submitted by school
staff in April 2019 and class size ratios contained in House Bill 13 and House Bill 90
Student CapacityProjectionsand
--------------------------------
Class Size Averages
OCS Elementary Student Projections 1:21 1:20 1:20 1:19 1:18 1:17
School Year 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-2112021-22 2022-2312023-2412024-2512025-261 2026-27 1 2027-28 2028-29
Actual 3,293 3,183 1 3,205
Average 3,213 3,262 3,278 3,321 3,367 3,395 3,424 3,452 3,480 3,508
Annual Change-Increase(Decrease)in Actual & (25) (110) 22 8 49 16 43 47 28 28 29 28 27
Projected Membership)
Capacity-100%Level of Service 3,694 3,361 3,740 3,615 3,490 3,365 3,365 3,365 3,365 3,365 3,365 3,365 3,365
Number of Students,Actual and Projected,Over(Under) (401) (178) (535) (402) (228) (87) (44) 2 30 59 87 115 143
100% LOS
105% Level of Service 3,879 3,529 3,927 31796 3,665 3,533 3,533 3,533 3,533 3,533 3,533 3,533 3,533
Number of Students,Actual and Projected,Over(Under) (586) (346) (722) (583) (403) (255) (212) (166) (138) (109) (81) (53) (26)
105% LOS
Actual-%Level of Service 89.1% 94.7% 85.7%
Average-%Level of Service 88.9% 93.5% 97.4% 98.7% 100.1%1 100.9% 101.7% 102.6% 103.4% 104.2%
Annual Student Growth Rate -0.75% -3.34%1 0.69% 1 0.23% 1 1.53% 1 0.50% 1 1.31% 1 .40% 1 0.83% 1 0.83% 1 0.83% 1 0.81% 0.79%
■ Capacity based on School Classrooms and Capacity Calculations submitted by school
staff in April 2019 and class size ratios contained in House Bill 13 and House Bill 90
Impacts from Class Size Changes
MAL Chapel Hill Carrboro City Schools d
2018 — 2019 School Year 2021 — 2022 School Year
Class Size Ratio — 1:20 Class Size Ratio — 1:17
Elementary School Capacity — 585 students Elementary School Capacity — 534 students
Total Elementary Capacity — 5,924* students Total Elementary Capacity — 5,390 * students
*At 100%Level of Service
Toss ofseats
kkk
Class size reductions reduce school capacity and may show a need for new school capacity
sooner than later (2026-27 school year).
Impacts from--C-I-ass Size Changes
MMPM"W 6M�_. Orange County Schools
2018 — 2019 School Year 2021 — 2022 School Year
Class Size Ratio — 1:20 Class Size Ratio — 1:17
Elementary School Capacity — 585 students Elementary School Capacity — 534 students
Total Elementary Capacity — 3,740* students Total Elementary Capacity — 3,365* students
*At 100%Level of Service ME
Lf 5 seats
• •
Class size reductions reduce school capacity and may show a need for new school capacity
sooner than later
Options to Implement Class Size Ratios
A. Options which have been eliminated by SJAC:
1. Allow SAPFO to implement cessation of CAPS issuance (would
stop issuance of building permits)
• Present enrollment/capacity conditions would not create this
condition in the short term
2. Increase the adopted 105% Level of Service ( LOS) for the
elementary school level permanently or for a specific period of
time
• Example: 3,365 students at 100%, 3,533 students at 105%, and
3,601 students at 107%
3. Allow modular, mobile, and/or temporary classrooms to be
included in elementary school building capacity numbers
permanently or for a specific period of time
Options to Implement Class Size Ratios
A. Options which have been eliminated by SJAC:
a. Coordinate all "special" classrooms or non-capacity spaces (i.e.
art, music, computer) to be located in modular, mobile, and/or
temporary classrooms
s. Fund renovations and improvements to unused or underutilized
spaces (i.e. staff offices, teacher workrooms) identified as
potential classroom space by school staff in order to increase
building capacity within permanent school buildings
6. Fund school renovation and/or expansion projects which
increase elementary school capacity within permanent school
buildings
7. Fund the construction of a new elementary school
Options to Implement Class Size Ratios
B. Options still being explored:
1. Suspend the Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) test for
the elementary school level for a specified period of time (short-
term solution)
i. Coincide with Pre-K capacity discussions and decisions (Pre-K use of space
within schools further decrease capacity for K-5, so effective capacity vs. SAPFO
regulated capacity is lower than actual).
i i. Continue to issue CAPS for tracking purposes, but building permits will not be
denied when capacity is met
iii. Recommended at the October 18 School Collaboration meeting
iv. This is not an emergency situation even with class size reductions, lower
capacity does not create a CAPS deferral until 2026-27.
2. Discontinue the Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) test
for both districts. (short-term solution)
3. Fund the construction of a "school swing space" (mid-term solution)
Next Steps
November 2019
Orange County Planning staff will commence the 2020 SAPFOTAC Report
process on November 4.
Due to timing, capacity numbers collected from the schools for the 2020 SAPFOTAC
Report may not incorporate the SJAC's final recommendation. However, the report will
include an update on the SJAC and changes in class size in the executive summary.
December 2019
Presentation to the Orange County Board of Education and the Chapel
Hill — Carrboro Board of Education.
January 2020
Annual SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee meeting to review capacity,
student membership, and 10-year projections.
February 2020
Presentation to the joint schools meeting for final recommendation
Orange County Planning staff will transmit final recommendation to the Towns. Based on
the final recommendation, this may include additional steps for the local governments.
March 2020
Formal transmittal of draft 2020 SAPFOTAC Report
Questions and Comments
Impacts from Class Size Changes
(Excluding Pre-K Classroom Capacities)
------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------
Chapel • • • City Schools
2018 — 2019 School Year 2021 — 2022 School Year
Class Size Ratio — 1:20 Class Size Ratio — 1:17
Elementary School Capacity — 585 students Elementary School Capacity — 495 students
Total Elementary Capacity — 5,664* students Total Elementary Capacity — 5,169 * students
*At 100%Level of Service
• •
kkk
Class size reductions reduce school capacity and may show a need for new school capacity
sooner than later (2021-22 school year).
Impacts from Class Size Changes
(Excluding Pre-K Classroom Capacities)
------------------------------------------------------------ -------
Orange County • •
2018 — 2019 School Year 2021 — 2022 School Year
Class Size Ratio — 1:20 Class Size Ratio — 1:17
Elementary School Capacity — 585 students Elementary School Capacity — 534 students
Total Elementary Capacity — 3,560* students Total Elementary Capacity — 3,212* students
*At 100%Level of Service
•
�
• • • .
Class size reductions reduce school capacity and may show a need for new school capacity
sooner than later (2024-25 school year)
Student CapacityProjectionsand
CHCCS Student Projections Class Size Averages
Excludin Pre-K Classroom Capacity) 1:21 1:20 1:20 1:19 1:18 1:17
School Year 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29
Actual 5,567 5,522 5,471
Average 5,448 5,444 5,474 5,498 5,557 5,606 5,653 5,700 5,745 5,787
Annual Change-Increase(Decrease)in Actual & 66 (45) (51) (74) (4) 30 24 59 49 47 47 45 42
Projected Membership)
Capacity-100%Level of Service(LOS) 5,829 5,664 5,664 5,499 5,334 5,169 5,169 5,169 5,169 5,169 5,169 5,169 5,169
Number of Students,Actual and Projected, Over (262) (142) (193) (51) 110 305 329 388 437 484 531 576 618
Under 100% LOS
Capacity-105%Level of Service(LOS) 6,120 5,947 5,947 5,774 5,601 5,427 5,427 5,427 5,427 5,427 5,427 5,427 5,427
Number of Students,Actual and Projected, Over (553) (425) (476) (325) (156) 47 70 130 179 226 273 318 360
Under 105%LOS
Actual -%Level of Service 95.5% 97.5% 96.6%
Average -%Level of Service 99.1% 102.1% 105.9% 106.4% 107.5% 108.5% 1 109.4% 1110.3%1111.1% 112.0%
Annual Student Growth Rate 1.20% -0.81% -0.92% -0.41% -0.08% 0.55% 0.43% 1.07% 0.89% 1 0.84% 1 0.83% 1 0.78% 0.74%
■ Capacity based on School Classrooms and Capacity Calculations submitted by school
staff in April 2019 and class size ratios contained in House Bill 13 and House Bill 90
Capacity- 100% LOS (2018-19 school year) 5,924
Pre-K Classroom Capacity - 221 seats
(13 classrooms at 1:17 class size)
Changes in class size ratio (2021-22 school year) - 534 seats
Total 755 seats lost
Student J
Capacity-and Projections
OCS Student Projections Class Size Averages
Excludin Pre-K Classroom Ca acit 1:21 1:20 1:20 1:19 1:18 1:17
School Year 2016-17 2017-18 1 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29
Actual 3,293 3,183 1 3,205
Average 3,213 3,262 3,278 3,321 3,367 3,395 3,424 3,452 3,480 3,508
Annual Change-Increase(Decrease)in Actual & (25) (110) 22 8 49 16 43 47 28 28 29 28 27
Projected Membership)
Capacity-100% Level of Service 3,694 3,361 3,560 3,444 3,328 3,212 3,212 3,212 3,212 3,212 3,212 3,212 3,212
Number of Students,Actual and Projected, Over (401) (178) (355) (231) (66) 66 109 155 183 212 240 268 296
Under 100% LOS
105% Level of Service 3,879 3,529 3,738 3,616 3,494 3,373 3,373 3,373 3,373 3,373 3,373 3,373 3,373
Number of Students,Actual and Projected,Over (586) (346) (533) (404) (233) (95) (52) (5) 23 51 80 108 135
Under 105%LOS
Actual -%Level of Service 89.1% 94.7% 90.0%
Average-%Level of Service 93.3% 98.0% 102.1% 103.4% 104.8% 105.7% 1 106.6% 1107.5%1108.40 109.2%
Annual Student Growth Rate -0.75% -3.34% 0.69% 0.23% 1.53% 0.50% 1.31% 1.40% 0.83% 1 0.83% 1 0.83% 1 0.81% 0.79%
■ Capacity based on School Classrooms and Capacity Calculations submitted by school
staff in April 2019 and class size ratios contained in House Bill 13 and House Bill 90
Capacity- 100% LOS (2018-19 school year) 3,740
Pre-K Classroom Capacity - 153 seats
(9 classrooms at 1:17 class size)
Changes in class size ratio (2021-22 school year) - 375 seats
Total 528 seats lost