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Home My WebLink AboutAgenda - 05-15-2001-10aORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: May 15, 2001 Action Agenda Item No. I~~ SUBJECT: Follow-up Report on Student Population Projections DEPARTMENT: County Manager/Budget/ PUBLIC HEARING: (Y/N) No Planning ATTACHMENT(S): Student Projection Graphs (under separate cover) INFORMATION CONTACT; - Rod Visser, ext 2300 Donna Dean, ext 2151 Crai Benedict, ext 2592 TELEPHONE NUMBERS: Hillsborough 732-8181 Chapel HiII 9fi8-4501 Durham 688-7331 Mebane 336-227-2031 PURPOSE: To review and consider additional information requested by the BOCC regarding the results of various methods of projecting future increases in the student population in the Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools. BACKGROUND: At their April 30, 2001 budget work session, the Board of Commissioners received a report an the number of students expected to need seats at the elementary, middle, and high school level of both school systems for each year through FY 2010-11. Detailed graphs were presented depicting the results of several alternative projection methods ("tools") that were prepared by school staffs, County staff, and external consultants. The Board directed the Manager to convene a meeting with the two Superintendents to develop additional data regarding several projection methods. Several observations noted at the April 30 work session are repeated here. One observation is that time will be the best measure of which projection method proves to be the mast accurate. There is no clearly superior tool to be relied upon primarily out of the various approaches demonstrated. Given that, there is a solid basis for assuming that the timing of the need for various new school facilities based on the projected increases in student population will fall into a fairly narrow "bracket" of several years. For example, one or two projection methods might indicate the need for a new school atone level in 2004, while one or two others might suggest the need to have that new school open instead in 2005 or 200$. In response to various Commissioner requests at the April 30 work session, staff will present an updated set of student projection graphs that reflect the following information, in addition to that presented in the April 30 version of these graphs: • Projections based on Fall 2001 enrollments, plus the potential additional space needs that could be created if charter school students were to leave those charters and enroll in either OCS or CHCCS. A projection line for this "tool" was shown on the April 30 graph for OC5 student projection vs. capacity. The same kind of projection line has now been graphed for the elementary; middle, and high school levels for both school systems. • Projections based on the 10-year historical numbers for final average daily membership (ADM), as reported by both school systems to the State Department of Public Instruction. The April 30 graphs reflected projections based on.3-year and 5-year historical averages of final ADM. • The resulting student projection vs. capacity graphs if the number of students and building capacities for both systems are combined. The resulting graphs have a great deal of data, but staff will be prepared to respond to BOCC questions about what each line on each, chart means, depending on the amount of time the Board has available to review and discuss the updated charts. The Board discussed, but did not make a final determination regarding, whether and how any of the additional student population projection information should be shared with the Capital Needs Advisory Task Farce,. which is expected to complete its work shortly and convey its recommendations to the BOCC by the end of May. The Board may wish to provide additional direction on this point following review of the updated graphs. FINANCIAL IMPACT: There is no financial impact directly associated with the review and discussion of this report. However, there are.very substantial fiscal impacts associated with the anticipated growth in new students and the school facilities that will be required to house them. The Board will be making decisions in the coming months about the best combination of financing approaches among pay-as-you-go, general obligation bonds, and other debt financing RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends that the Board review the updated graphs and provide appropriate direction to staff. Projecting Future Students ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~. ~ r ~ May 15, 2001 Projection Methodologies • Student generation model (Tischler report) -Annual growth equal to: • CHCCS - 285 new students • OCS - 156 new students • Cohort survival method n ~J - 3, 5 and 10 year historical growth by grade z 1 Projection ,Methodologies (continued) • Orange County Planning Department projections - CHCCS -Assumes 360 new students in school year ending 2002 and decreases at rate of 15 students per year - OCS -Assumes 140 new students in school year ending 2002 and increases at rate of 5 students per year 3 Projection Methodologies (continued) • School District Projections based on enrollment -includes charter school students 4 2 CHCCS Projected Elementary Students Compared to Capacity 6,500 Elementary #9 Projected to Come on Line 6,DOD ............................ .................................................................... 5,500 .....---•• ........................... ................... ........................... .. 5,000 ...........-• ........ ........•---- .. ...... .. .... . 4,500 ---- .. .................................................................................................... 4,000 2001 2002 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 t Taschler 5 Year Growth ~^ 9 Year Growth -~+-10YearGrowth ~OCPlannng --~CHCCSMembershlpProjecdon -~- EnroOm®nt +Capacdy CIE-105% Level of Service s CHCCS Projected Middle School Students Compared to Capacity s,6oo -•-•--......---•--- • ...........................................................................................•--~- 9,400 .................... . ............................................................................ .... _ ......... . ~~~ ...Smith„~.dLa.Sahool.P..rajt~ated.tQ.Came.Alx.l.,ine ... ...................... ................. 9,000 ......---~• ..... .......... ......... .................. z,8oo .............. .......... ......... ....•...-. z,6oo ..................... -.... ---------------------- ---.... ...............---............................... 2;400 - --......... .. .. ......................................•--•--••--••-.-.......-...-----------.... zoo .. .............................................................................................................................. z,ooo 2001 2002 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 +Taschler 5 Year Growth # 9 Year Growth ~10YearGrowlh ~-OCPlannng ~CHCCSProJection --~ EnroOment -F Capacpy -~ 107% Level of SeBrNoe '~ CHCCS Projected High School Students Compared to Capacity 5,000 1 .. .. .. .. ................................................:.............. ..... ... .. ...................................................... a,5oo ~ ..........................................................................................................................~,...... a,ooo ~ .........................................; .......................................... s,5oo ~............ s,DOO f••-• 2,500 zoos 2oD2 Zoos xaoa 2005 Zoos 2007 2aae 2009 2010 zo11 4-Tischler 5 Year Growth -~ 3 Year Growth -10 Year Growth +OC Planning ,+•^CHCCS Pro~ectlons -Enrollment 1-Capacity CIF 110% Level of Serti~e OCS Projected Elementary Students 4,soo .......................................... ed to Capacity ..... P ...................................................................................... a,1oo .............................:....................................................................................................... 9soo ......................... ........:.................:.............................................................................. 3,700 ..... ............................................... ... 9,500 ............... ................:......................................• ---........ ....................... 9,900 -• ................................................ ....................................................... 5,100 .... ................. ...... ............................................... ._ .......... ..---• 2,900 ............................. ......... ........................................................................................... 2,7DD ....................................................... .............................................................................. 2,500 2001 2002 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2D09 2010 2011 +Tlschler 5 Year Growth -1r` 9 Year Growth t 10 Year Growth +~OCPlanntng -Enrolhnent -arCapachy -lIF-105°~LevelofSarv~e 4 OCS Projected Middle School Students Compared to Capacity 1,900 ............ ........................................................................................................................... . 1,800 ... .... ..... 1,70D ........... ~ 1,600 .......... ....... .-...---•---.. .. ..................................... 1,500 .... .... .. ..- ----•-•-• ......................... 1,400 ................................................................... . .... . 1,900 ............................................................................................... ........................•----.......... 1,200 ..............••-•--••----...........-......................................................................-_..........-...._.......... 1,100 ................................................... ..... 1,000 2001 2002 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ~ Tischler 5 Year Growth ~r-9 Year Growth -10 Year Growth 9 ~OCPtannfng +Enrollment -ttfCapacBy ~107%LeyelofServic OCS Projected High School Students Compared to Capacity 2,soo Cedar Ridge High School Projected to Gome on Line 2,800 ............................. ........................................-•--••---••-•- Zppp ......................... ...... •----------- --•----._...-................--•• ----- ------------ --•-• •-- -.... 2,200 ............ ..................•-------------- .. ......................-......-.....---------------- 2,000 ............... ... ............................---- - •---•--•-. ..........--......................................... i~oo .... .................................................................... .•-•----•- -.... 1,~ .... ......... ................................................................................................................ 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -~Tlsehlar 5 Year Growth +3 Yesr Growth t 10 Y~r Growtl~ f OC Planning -~-Enrollment t Capaelty -Mf-110% Lavol of Servke 10 Combined Projected Elementary Students Compared to Capacity 11,DDD ...................................................................................................................................... 10,500 .....................................................................:................................................................ 10,000 ............................................................................................ ................................... 9,500 ........................................................... .................................................................... 9,000 ............................ ...... ................. ~ .............................................. ........................ 8,500 .... ..... ....................... .............. .................... ..... 8000 .....................................:..... ... .... ... .:......................................_.......... 7~r~ .............................................................................................................. 7,000 2001 2002 2008 ~ 2004 2005 2008 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ~-Tlschler 5 Year Growth +S Year Growth -x-10 Year Growtf~ 1 +Enrollment i-Capaclly ~IF105%LevelofService Combined. Projected Middle School Students Compared to Capacity 5,500 ............................................... .... .. .................................... 1 .............................................. 5,000 ~ ........................................................................................................ 4,500 ~ ............... 4,000 ~..... 9,500 ~.....- ................................................................................................................................. 3,000 2001 2002 2008 '2004 2005 2008 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -~ Tlschler 5 Year Growth -~ S Year Growth f 1 D Y~r Growth +Enrollment i-Capacity -~107%l.evelofServlce iz 6 Combined Projected High School Students Compared to Capacity 6,sgq ~ ............................................... 6,~ ...-~---- - ---- ---- ---- 6.500 .......................... 5,000 .... .......... q~rOO .... .....--• - - ~-• 4,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2071 ~ Ttat:hler 5 Year Growth -~ 3 Year Growth f 1 q Year Growth -+-Enroumant Capacity ~110%LevelofServke 13 14 7