HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda - 02-26-2001-c4ORANGE COUNTY
BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS
ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT
Meeting Date: February 26, 2001
~i~
Action Agenda
Item No. C 4
SUBJECT: Public School Impact Fees
DEPARTMENT: Planning PUBLIC HEARING: (Y/N) Yes
ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT:
Draft Tischler &~ Associates Report Craig Benedict, ext 2592
Legal Ad Notice
TELEPHONE NUMBERS:
Hillsborough 732-8181
Chapel Hill 9fi8-4501
Durham 688-7331
Mebane 336-227-2031
PURPOSE: To conduct a public hearing on a report on the calculation of maximum permissible
public school impact fees that consider differentiated fees based on housing type.
BACKGROUND: The Orange County Educational Facilities Impact Fee Ordinance was
adopted on June 7, 1993, and impact fees were set at $750 per newly constructed residential
dwelling unit (regardless of type) for both the Orange County and Chapel Hill-Carrboro School
Districts. The ordinance has been amended several times since 1993 and impact fees are
currently $750 for the Orange County School District and $3,000 for the Chapel Hill-Carrboro
School District.
A concern voiced at past public hearings was that different housing types (e.g. apartments vs.
single family homes) generated students at varying rates and that impact fees should be
proportional to the demand created rather than across-the-board. A recent technical study
prepared by Tischler & Associates has been drafted to determine a maximum supportable
impact fee per housing unit for each school district, taking into consideration different types of
housing units. That report will serve as the basis for an evaluation of impact fees for both the
Orange County and Chapel Hill-Carrboro school systems and of possible changes to the
current fees. Paul Tischler of Tischler and Associates and Planning Director Craig Benedict
presented preliminary findings of the~Tischler ~ Associates report at the February 8 Schools
and Land Use Councils meeting.
FINANCIAL IMPACT: There is no direct financial impact associated with the presentation of
this report at the public hearing. Adoption of higher impact fees at some point in the future
could help reduce the amount of funding from other sources needed for canstructian of school
facilities.
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RECOMMENDATION(S):
hearing on the report. No
The Administration recommends that the Board conduct a public
decisions are required at this time.
g:\craig\abstracts\impactfeesabstract. dot\ 1-24-01 \gb
D. PUBLIC SCHOOL IMPACT FEES
Effective July 1, 1993, the Board of County Commissioners established a system
of impact fees to help fund a portion of the school capital needs created by
growth in the county. Since that date, an impact fee has been collected for each
new housing unit constructed or installed in the county, including single-family
homes, multi family housing units, apartments, and mobile homes. Fees
collected in the Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District are deposited in a special
account and used exclusively for the construction of new school facilities in that
district. The same is true for fees collected in the Orange County School District.
The impact fee supplements funds provided by the County from sales tax and
property tax revenues for school capital projects. The public school impact fee
collected is now $750.00 for each new residential unit located in the Orange
County School District and $3,000 for each new residential unit located in the
Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District.
The Board of County Commissioners recently employed a consultant to evaluate
the potential far a public school impact fee rate structure that could legitimately
be the basis for a less regressive fee structure based on charging a different fee
amount for different housing types. Also, the Orange County Board of Education
has recently requested that the Orange County Board of Commissioners
increase the amount of the fee for new residential dwelling units located in the
Orange County School District.
The 2001 Technical Report prepared by the consultant concluded that there was
a legitimate basis for charging one fee for single family homes and a lower fee for
all other residential dwelling units. The Report reflects new demographic data
concerning the number of students per household and recommendations of the
School Facilities Construction Standards Work Group, and calculates MAXIMUM
fees that could be charged as follows:
Maximum for
Maximum for all other
single-family residenial
homes units
Orange County School District $5,375 $2,538
Chapel Hill-Carrboro School
District $7,374 $3,304
The Board of Commissioners will consider whether or not to change public
school impact fees following the February 26, 2001 public hearing. THE
MAXIMUM LEGALLY PERMISSIBLE FEES CALCULATED IN THE REPORT
OF THE CONSULTANT ARE NOT A PROPOSAL TO CHARGE THOSE
FEES. Any change in the present fees will be determined by the Board of
Commissioners following public comment at the public hearing and otherwise.
In no event will public school impact fees be changed to an amount or amounts
that exceed the maximums determined by the 2001 Technical Report.
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School Impact Fees
Orange County, North Carolina
February 12, 2001
Prepared By
Tischler ~ Associates, Inc.
Bethesda, Maryland
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Table of Contents
I_ Executive Summa 1
Fi ure 1 -Public 5choo/ Im act Fee Methodolo Chart 2
Figure 2 -School Impact Fees Per Housing Unit 3
II. Demand Generators 4
Fi ure 3-Aran e Coun Pro-ections Summa 4
Figure 4 ~ Orange County District Student Generation Rates 5
FlgUre 5 -- Chapel Nill -Carrboro District Student Generation Rates 5
III. Public School Impact Fees g
', A. Buildin and Site Area Standards g
II Fi ure 6 -- Invento of Oran e Coun District Schools 7
Figure 7 -Inventory of Chapel Hill -Carrboro District_Schools 9
B. Cast of School Sites 10
Figure 8-Recent Site Acquisition by District 10
C. School Project Cost 11
Figure 9 -Project Costs for New Schools 11
D. Cost of Relocatable Classrooms 11
E. Administrative Buildings Cost 12
I'll Figure 10 -School Administrative Facilities 12
F. Transportation Support Facilities & Vehicles Cost 13
Figure 11-Transportation Su ort Facilities & Vehicles 13
G. Credit for Future Revenues 1~
Figure 12 -Principal. Payment Credit Per Student 15
H. Maximum 5u ortable Im act Fees for Public Schools 16
Figure _13 -- Orange County District School Impact Fees 16
Fi ure 14 - Cha el Hill -Carrboro District School Im act Fees 17
IV. Implementation and Administration 18
V. Appendix A -Cash Flow Analysis 20
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Fipure A1-Demographic Data 20
Figure A2 -School Facilities Needed 21
Fipure A3 -Orange County District Cash Flow Summary 22
~ Fipure A4 -Chapel Hill - Carrboro District Cash Flow Summary 23
VI. Appendix B -Student Generation Rates and Projections 24
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School Im act Fees Orange County, North Carolina
Executive Summary
Tischler & Associates, Inc. (TA) calculated school impact fees for Orange County, North
Carolina based on data for the current school year (2000-2001). Impact fees are one-
time payments that are used to construct public facilities needed to accommodate new
development. Impact fees are proportionate to the school capital facility service
demands for two categories of residential development. The impact fee methodology
establishes an equitable allocation of the costs in comparison to the benefits received
(i.e., capital improvements to be provided by either Orange County or Chapel Hill
Carrboro School District).
The school impact fee methodology is based on current public school student
generation rates, local costs, and level of service standards. Figure 1 illustrates the
methodology used to calculate the fee. The basic formula used to derive the impact fee
for both school districts is to multiply student generation rates by the net capital cost of
public schools per student. To avoid potential double payment for school facilities, a
credit for future principal payments on existing General Obligation bonds is reflected in
the maximum supportable impact fee per housing unit. Impact fees will address the
cost of five different types of facilities, including school sites, school buildings (i.e., total
project cost), relocatable classrooms, support buildings and vehicles used by the
SCh~aol DlstrlCtS.
Section II of this report discusses development projections and student generation rates
used in the impact fee calculations. Section III of the report documents each cost factor
and Level-Of-Service (LOS) standard used to derive the school impact fees. The final
section of this report discusses implementation and administration of the fees, including
a cash flow analysis (See Appendix A) and a memorandum on the methodology used
to derive the student generation rates (see Appendix B).
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School Impact Fees
Orancre County, North Carolina
Figure 1 -Public School Impact Fee Methodology Chart
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School Im act Fees
Prange County, North Carolina
Public School Students
Per Housing Unit
multiplied by
Net Capital Cast
Per Student
Land Cost
plus
Relocatable
Classroom Cost
plus
Vehicles Cost
plus
Local Share of
School Project Cost
plus
Support Buildings
Cost
minus
Principal Payment
Credit
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School fact Fees
Orange County, North Carolina
Based on the above methodology, the maximum supportable school impact fees for
both the Orange Caunty and Chapel Hill - Carrbaro Districts are shown in Figure 2
below. The current fee schedule does not differentiate by type of housing. Under the
proposed fee schedule, a higher fee is imposed an single-family detached houses due
to higher student generation rates.
Figure 2 -School Impact Fees Per Housing Unit
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~`Dislrief
('arrant Fee
S Ingle P amity Detached $750 $3,000
All Other Residential $750 $3,000
Maximum Supportable Fee
Single Family Detached $5,364 $7,345
All Other Residential $2,539 $3,298
Demand Generators
The primary indicators of the need for additional, growth-related school facilities are
projections of housing units and public school students, as measured by Average Daily
Membership (ADM). The memo found in Appendix B provides a detailed explanation of
the demographic data Shawn in Figure 3.
Figure 3 -Orange County Projections Summary
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School Im,oact Fees
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2001
2006
2011
~i Population 116,217 127,928 139,639
Housing Units 55,000 61,007 67,015
Households
' 45,819 50,824 55,829
Pub 5ch ADM 15,841 17,888 20,259
Oran a Coun North Carolina
2001 to 2011
Average Annual
Increase Growth Rate
2,342 2.0%
1,202 2.2%
1,001 2.2%
442 2.8%
~, Orange County Growth Indicators
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160,000
140,000 -- ---__ -_ .:° - - - - ~-__....
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120,000 - ~ - • + -~Y... ~..__
100,000 _,... __._ _.._ _..._~-
80,000 -•- ---- -- _
60,000 ._.... - '
40,000 ------ ---- __ ...-_ ~ ~_.._.
20,000 - - ---- I
', o
~~, 2001 2006 2011
- f -Population --Housing Units -•~~Household5 1-Pub Sch ADM
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Craig Benedict t C7CSchF
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School Impact Fees
Orange County, Narth Carolina
TA obtained a custom, cross-tabulation of 1990 sample data (i.e., "long-form"
responses) from the U.S. Census Bureau to determine the number of public school
students by type of housing and type of school. The 1990 distribution of students by
type of housing and type of school was adjusted according to current housing unit
estimates and ADM data by school district. The multipliers shown below are public
school students, a subset of school-age children, per housing unit (i.e., occupied plus
vacant units). The student generation rates for Orange County School District are
shown in Figure 4.
Figure a -Orange County District Student Generation Rates
Public Schop[ Students Per Housing Unit in pC District, SY00-01
Edem entary Ntiddle High All Grades
S Ingle F amily Detached
All Other Residential
All Hsg Types (blended)
0.150 0.075 0.084
0.084 0.033 0.030
0.140 0.068 0.076
0.309
0.147
0.284
Figure 5 indicates public school students per hauling unit in the Chapel Hill -Carrboro
District.
Figure 5 ~- Chapel Hill -Carrboro District Student Generation Rates
Public Schooi Students Per Housing Unit in CHC District, SY00-01
Elementary l~fiddle High All Grades
Single Family Detached
All Other Residential
All Hsg Types (blended)
0.168 0.095 0.123
0.094 0.042 0.043
0.134 0.070 0.086
0.386
0.179
0.290
See Appendix B for a mare thorough discussion of the demographic data used in the
impact fee study.
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Schaal Impact Fees Orange County. North Carolina
Public School Impac# Fees
The recommended public school impact fees are based on local data and existing level
of service standards. These factors are explained in the following paragraphs and
tables.
Building and Site Area Standards
Figures 6 and 7 provide inventories of existing public schools in Orange County. The
data contained in these tables are used to derive LOS standards for school sites,
buildings and relocatable classrooms. The LOS standards are then used to determine
capital costs per student in the impact fee calculations. Based on TA's experience,
jurisdictions usually conclude that it is better to adopt impact fees based on current
standards rather than desired levels of service. The latter approach creates existing
deficiencies that must be corrected in a reasonable time frame from non-impact fee
funding.
An inventory of Orange County District schools is shown in Figure 6. Elementary
school buildings have 401,254 square feet of floor area accommodating an elementary
ADM of 3,078 students. Dividing the total building area by the number of students
yields a standard of 130 square feet of school building per elementary student. The
average elementary school site in the Orange County District is 21 acres. Also, the
average elementary school has only one relocatable classroom, or mobile unit.
Middle school buildings have 244,970 square feet of floor area accommodating an ADM
of 1,504 students. Dividing the total building area by the number of students yields a
standard of 163 square feet of school building per middle school student. The average
middle school site in the Orange County District is 46 acres. Also, the average middle
school has four relocatable classrooms, or mobile units.
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School Impact Fees
Orange Countv, North Carolina
The current high school has 213,509 square feet of floor area accommodating an ADM
of 1,672 students. Dividing the total building area by the number of students yields a
standard of 128 square feet of school building per high school student. Although this
LOS standard will increase significantly with the opening of the new high school, TA
has taken a conservative approach by deriving the impact fees based on the current
standard. The current high schaal site in the Orange County District is 92 acres and
there are two relocatable classrooms, or mobile units.
Figure 6 -- Inventory of Orange County District Schools
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Schoa~Fees Oran a Coun North Carolina
Elementary Site Building Mobile State Oct. 2000 Average
School Acreage Square Feet Units Capacity Daily Mem bershin
Cameron Park 19.0 70,812 1 598
Central 22.0 61,382 0 483
Efland Cheeks 31.0 65,084 1 529
Grady frown 18.0 75,016 2 575
Hillsborough 10.0 ' 28,796 0 414
New Hope 26.0 100,164 0 621
local tLO.u 4U1,L]4 4 3,zzu 3,078
Average 21 66,87b 1 537
L05 Per Student 0.0409 130 0,0013 96% of capacity
~ Middle Site Building Mobile State Oct. 2000 Average
~ School Acreage 'Square Feet Units Capacity Daily Membership
~ Stanback 35.9 136,000 1 740
Stanford 57.0 108,970 6 726
l ptal yL,y L44,y%U 7 1,466 1,504
Average 46 122,485 4 733
LOS Per Student 0.0618 163 0.0047 103%
High Site Building Mobile State Oct. 2000 Average
School Acreage Square Feet Units Capacity Daily Mem bershiD
Orange High 92.0 213,509 2 1,518
Total 92.0 213,509 2 1,518
Average 92 213,509 2 1,518
LOS Per Student 0.0550 128 0.0012 110%
1,672
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School Impact Fees
Orange County. North Carolina
An inventory of Chapel Hill -Carrboro District schools is shown in Figure 7.
Elementary school buildings have 559,073 square feet of floor area accommodating an
elementary ADM of 4,419 students. Dividing the total building area by the number of
students yields a standard of 127 square feet of school building per elementary student.
The average elementary school site in the Chapel Hill -Carrboro District is 12.9 acres.
Also, the average elementary school has three relocatable classrooms, or mobile units.
Middle school buildings have 352,437 square feet of floor area accommodating an ADM
of 2,325 students. Dividing the total building area by the number of students yields a
standard of 152 square feet of school building per middle school student. The average
middle school site is 32 acres and has only one relocatable classroom.
High schools in the Chapel Hill -Carrboro District have 499,782 square feet of floor
area accommodating an ADM of 2,$43 students. Dividing the total building area by the
number of students yields a standard of 176 square feet of school building per high
school student. The average high school site in the Orange County District is $0 acres,
with six relocatable classrooms.
Figure 7 -Inventory of Chapel Hill -Carrboro District Schools
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Elementary Site Building Mobile Stale Oct. 2000 Average
School Acreage Sguare Feet Units Capacity Daily Mem bership
Carrboro 20.8 61,562 1 563
E hesus 13.2 73,096 7 472
Estes hills 57,029 1 549
FP Graham 10.8 65,365 2 570
Glenwood 10.1 54,412 4 445
McDougle 11.7 98,000 0 596
Scroggs 13.1 90,980 0 510
Seawell 10.9 58,629 6 498
j Total 90.6 559,073 21 4,203 4,415
Average 12.9 ' 69,884 3 525
~, LOS Per Student 0.0205 127 0.0048 105% of capacity
i Middle Site Building Mobile State Oct. 2000 Average
School Acreage Sguare Feet Units Capacity Daily Membership
Culbreth 35.6 104,798 0 670
Mcbougle 28.3 13$,141 2 732
Phillips 33.0 109,498 0 706
Total 96.9 352,437 2 2,108 2,325
Average 32 117,479 1 703
LOS Per Student 0.0417 152 0.0009 110%
High Site Building Mobile State Oct. 2000 Average
School Acreage 'Square Feet Units Capacity Daily Mem bership
Cha I Hill 85.3 243,834 6 1,520
East Cha I Hill 74.8 255,948 1,515
Total 160.1 499,782 6 3,035 2,843
Average 80 249,891 6 1,518
LOS Per Student 0.0563 176 0.0021 94%
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School Impact Fees Orange County, North Carolina
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School Impact Fees
Cost of School Sites
Oran a Count North Carolina
As indicated in Figure 8, the average cost per acre for school sites acquired in recent
years is approximately $13,000 per acre in the Orange County District and $24,000 per
acre in the more urbanized Chapel Hill -Carrboro District.
Figure 8 -Recent Site Acquisition by District
Orange County District
School Year Cost Acres Cost Per Acre
New OC listrict HS 1999 $650,000 71.0 $9,155
5tanback 1992 $722,190 34.4 $20,994
5tanback Addition 1999 $85,000 8.2 $10,366
New Hope E5 1988 $430,630 28.5 $15,110
TOTAL $1,887,820 142.1 $13,285
Chapel Hill -Carrboro District
School Year Cost Acres Cast Per Acre
East Chapel Hill HS 1992 $1,850,000 74.8 $24,733
McDougal 1990 $900,050 40.0 $22,501
TOTAL $2,750,050 114.8 $23,955
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~ School Impact Fees
School Project Cost
Orange County,_North Carolina
School District staff provided the anticipated total project cost for five new schools,
which are listed in Figure 9. The weighted average project cost is $141 per square foot
for all types of schools. Project costs include design fees, site work, building
construction and furniture/equipment costs. Although funding from the State of North
Carolina is rarely available, impact fees are based on the local share of school project
costs, which is 93% of the total.
Figure 9 _ Project Costs for New 5choo/s
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School Imn,act Fees
School Year
Project
Elementary Schools
Orange. Counttr,_ North Carolina
Total Square Tatal Cast State
Cost Feet Per Sq Ft Funding
(rounded) Allocated
Pathways 2000 $12,737,720 85,282
CHC ES 2003 $13,712,000 90,980
Subtotal $26,449,720 176,262 $150
Middle Schools
New OC District 2003 $20,000,000 132,192
Smith 2001 $19,800,000 132,192
subtotal $39,800,000 264,384
High Schools
New OC District 2002 $25,000,000 206,900
Subtotal $25,000,000 206,900
$151
$121
All Schools $91,249,720 647,546 $141
Percent from State Funding (all schools)
Local Share of Schwl Project Costs
Cost of Relocatable Classrooms
$5,980,160
$5,980,160
$0
$o
$5,980,160
7%
93%
School District staff provided the current cost of $60,000 to purchase and set up a
relocatable classroom, including site work and utilities.
Administrative Buildings Cost
Figure 10 provides data on office buildings currently used to support public schools.
The Orange County District Support Services and Board of Education buildings have an
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~~ School Impact Fees Prange County,_ North Carolina
estimated replacement cost of $2.3 million. An average cost approach allocated the
replacement cost of administrative buildings to the current average daily membership in
Qrange County District schools, to yield an average cost of $369 per student.
The main office building for the Chapel Hill -- Carrboro District is located at the Lincoln
Center. The estimated replacement cost of this building ($3.05 million) was allocated to
the average daily membership to yield an average cost of $318 per student for
administrative facilities.
Figure 10 -School Administrative Facilities
Orange County District Administrative Facilities
Location Square Cost Per Replacement
Feet Square Foot Cost
Hillsborough Sup Svs 14,770 $110 $1,624,700
OCS BdofEdBldg 6,210 $110 $683,100
-rnr er 2n_9R0 $2.307.800
Proportionate 2001 Cost per
Share DemandUnits DemandUnit
Residential 100% 6,254 Avg Daily Members $369
Nonresidential 0%
Chape t - arr oro rstrrct mrnrstratrve act etres
Location Square Cost Per Replacement
Feet Square Foot Cost
r :_,...~_ r~e..ao.. n,r.,:., u,,;ia;.,,, 77 7')ri P 1 10 $3.049.860
Proportionate 2001 Cost per
Share DemandUnits DemandUnit
Residential 100% 9,587 Avg Daily Members $318
Nonresidential 0%
Transportation Support Facilities 8~ Vehicles Cost
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School Impact Fees Orange Caunty, North Carolina
Transportation support facilities and vehicles represent another major capital cost item
necessary to accommodate new development. Orange County School District provides
bus maintenance and transportation support facilities for both school districts. There is
also a small transportatian center in Chapel Hill. The estimated replacement cost of
these facilities ($1.7 million) was allocated to the countywide ADM to yield an average
cost of $108 per student for transportation support facilities. In addition, the impact fee
calculations include an average cost of $304 per student for school vehicles. The cost
of vehicles in Orange County District was used as a proxy for vehicle costs in Chapel
~' Hill - Carrboro District. Impact fee revenue for vehicles may only be used to expand
the fleet to meet growth-related needs. Operating and maintenance costs, as well as
vehicle replacement costs, are not eligible for impact fee funding.
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Figure 11-Transportation Support Facilities 8 Vehicles
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School Impact Fees
Dran a Count North Carolina
Countywt a rausportatiou uppart act itres
Location Square Cost Per Replacement
Feet Square Foot Cost
QC Maintenance Facility 17,559 $50 $877,950
QC Transportation Facility 11,704 $50 $555,200
Transportation Center at CHHS 5,089 $50 $254,450
•rnT ei 34.352 $1.717.600
Proportionate
Share 2001
Demand Units Cost per
Demand Unit
Residential 100% 15,841 Av Daily Members $108
Orange aunty tstrtct a ec es
Type of
Vehicle,
Light TrucksNans
Cars
Heavy Trucks
Activity B uses
'P l1T Ai
Units in Local Cost Replacement
Service Per Unit Cost
21 $26,700 $560,700
12 $16,300 $195,600
3 $48,700 $146,100
14 $71,400 $999,600
50 R3R_040 $1.902.000
Proportionate
Share 2001
DemandUnits Cost per
Demand Unit
Residential 100% 6,254 Avg Daily Members $304
Credit for Future Revenues
A general requirement that is common to impact fee methodologies is the evaluation of
credits. A revenue credit may be necessary to avoid potential double payment
situations arising from the payment of a one-time impact fee plus the payment of other
revenues that may also fund growth-related capital improvements. The determination
of credits is dependent upon the impact fee methodology used in the cost analysis.
There are three basic approaches used to calculate impact fees and each is linked to
different credit methodology.
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School Impact Fees ~ Orange County. North Carolina
The first major type of impact fee method is a buy-in approach. This method is used for
facilities that have adequate capacity to accommodate new development for at least a
five to six year time frame, which is the typical horizon for a Capital Improvements Plan
(CIP). The rationale far the buy-in approach is that new development is paying for its
share of the useful life or remaining capacity of the existing facility. When using the
buy-in approach, a question in the evaluation of credits is whether new development
has already contributed toward the cost of existing public facilities (i.e., a past revenue
credit). Outstanding principal and interest payments are typically subtracted from the
value of the asset that was oversized for new development.
The second basic approach used to calculate impact fees is the incremental expansion
cast method. This method documents current LOS standards and it is best suited for
public facilities that will be expanded incrementally in the future. Because Orange
County will continue to provide additional schools that are similar to those already in
use, the incremental expansion cast method is appropriate for public schools. There is
a potential for double payment of capital costs due to up-front payment of impact fees
and on-going principal payments an existing General Obligation bonds for schools. A
credit is not necessary far interest payments because interest casts were not included
in the impact fee calculations.
The third basic approach used to calculate impact fees is the plan-based method. This
method is based an future capital improvements needed to accommodate new
development. The plan-based method may be used for public facilities that have
commonly accepted service delivery standards to determine the need for future projects
(e.g., water and sewer systems) or the jurisdiction plans to significantly increase it
current LOS standards and it has a financially feasible strategy to cover the cost of
existing deficiencies. If a plan-based approach is used to derive impact fees, the credit
evaluations should focus on future bonds and revenues that will fund planned capital
improvements.
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School Impact Fees
Oran a Count North Carolina
Given the incremental expansion cost approach used to derive school impact fees,
Orange County should consider a credit fior future principal payments on existing
General Obligation bonds, as shown in Figure 12. New residential units that pay school
impact fees in the latter half of this calendar year will also contribute to future principal
payments that will be paid from property tax revenue beginning in 2002. To' account for
the time value of money, annual principal payments per student are discounted using a
net present value formula.
Figure 12 -Principal Payment Credit Per Student
Fiscal 1993 Series 1993 Series 1994 Series 2000 Series 2001 Series Students Credit Per
Year (1992 Band) (1988 Bond) (1992 Bond) (1997 Bond) (1997 Bond) (FTE) Student
2D02
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
$1,100,000 $1,3$1,650 $1,300,000 $799,468 $287,864 15,990
$1,100,000 $1,366,550 $1,300,OD0 $891,892 $287,864 16,465
$1,100 000 $1,347 675 $1,300,000 $984,316 $287,864 16,939
$1,100,000 $1,332,575 $1,300,000 $1,076,740 $287,864 17,413
$1,100,000 $1,317,475 $1300,000 $1,1D9,0$8 $287,864 17,888
$1,100,000 $1,298,600 $'1 300 ODO $1,386,360 $287,864 18,362
$1,1DD,000 $1,279,725 $1,300 000 $1,571,208 $354,809 18,836
$1,100,000 $1,257,075 $1,300,000 $1,756 056 $488,699 19,311
$1,1D0,000 $1,238 200 $1,300,000 $2 033 328 $622,589 19 785
$1,100,000 $1,300,000 $2,033,328 $622,589 20,259
$304
$300
$296
$293
$286
$293
$298
$306
$318
$250
TOTAL $11,000,000 $11,519,525 $13,000,000 $13,641,784 $3,$15,870 $2,943
Discount Rate 5.50%
Net Present Value $2,224
23
~_
Craig Benedict - ~CSchFe ... ., .. w . .
e. oc Page 2
School Impact Fees
Orange County, North Carolina
Maximum Supportable Impact Fees for Public Schools
The key factors used to derive school impact fees for the Orange County School District
are summarized in Figure 13. Student generation rates (i.e., public school students by
type of housing and school) are multiplied by the capital cost per student to yield the
maximum supportable impact fee by type of housing. The impact fee schedule shown
below includes the recommended credit for future principal payments on General
Obligation bonds used to construct school facilities.
Figure 73 -Orange County District School Impact Fees
24
i ._
Cralg enedict - OCSchFee.doc . ~ _. .
. ~ . page 25~
I 1
Schoohlm act Fees
Public School Students Per Household
S Ingle F amity Detached
All Other Residential
All Housing Types (blended)
Current Level Of Service Standards
Acreage Per Student
Land Cost Per Acre
Land Cost Per Student
Square Feet Per Student
School Project Costs Per Square Foot
Local Share of School Project Cost
School Project Cost Per Student
Relocatable Classrooms Fer 1,000 Students
Cost Per Relocatable Classroom
Relocatable Classroom Cost Per Student
Administrative Facilities Cost Per Student
Transp Support & Vehicles Cost Per Student
Principal Payment Credit Per Student
Net Capital Cost Per Student
Maximum Supportable Impact Fee Per Hou
Single Family betached
All Other Residential
Ora~e_County, North Carolina
Type of School
em entary r e rg TOTAL
K-5 6-8 9-I Z
0.150 0.075 0.084
0.084 0.033 0.030
0.140 0.068 0.076
$532 ~ $803 ~ $715
$17,094 I $21,358 I $16.744
0.309
0.147
0.284
$78 $279 $72
$2,439 $1,574 $1,351 $5,364
$1,365 $692 $482 $2,539
$369 $369 $369
$412 $412 $412
$16,261 $20,997 $16,088
nrt TOTAL
25
...._., „~, ,..,~~ao.~, .,.::.. ... , ..... ~. ~ ~. ~.....
r' Craig enedict - CSchf=ee.doc ~ _., Paae ~
School Impact Fees Orange Caunty, North Carolina
s
i
The key factors used to derive school impact fees for the Chapel Hill -Carrboro School
District are summarized in Figure 14. Student generation rates (i.e., public school
students by type of housing and school) are multiplied by the capital cost per student to
yield the maximum supportable impact fee by type of housing. The impact fee
schedule shown below includes the recommended credit for future principal payments
on General Obligation bonds used to construct school facilities.
There are two impact fee schedules because the following key factors vary by district:
student generation rates, site acreage and land costs, floor area of school buildings per
student and the number of relocatable classrooms per student.
Figure 14 -- Chapel Hill -Carrboro District School Impact Fees
Z6
raig Benedict - OCScFil=ee.doc ~ ~ age 27
~~~
r~- ....
School Imraact Fees
Public School Students Per Household
S Ingle F amily Detached
All Other Residential
All Housing Types (blended)
Current Level Of Service Standards
Acreage Per Student
Land Cost Per Acre
Land Cost Per Student
Square Feet Per Student
School Project Costs Per Square Foot
Local Share of School Project Cost
School Project Cost Per Student
Relocatable Classrooms Per 1,000 Students
Cost Per Relocatable Classroom
Relocatable Classroom Cost Per Student
Administrative Facilities Cost Per Student
Transp Support & Vehicles Cost Per Student
Principal Payment Credit Per Student
Orange Count' North Carolina
Type ofSchool
em entary r e eg TOTAL
K-5 6-8 9-12
0.168 0,095 0.123
0.094 0.042 0.043
0.134 0.070 0.086
' . ;, ;..~
• d'
as .'t: •n
y : u:M.Hi , ~h~~„~~~~~r~, ~4 ,~., ~ ,
•~
$285 $52 $127
$318 $318 $318
$412 $412 $412
0.386
0.179
0.290
Net Capital Cost Per Student $15,873 $19,435 $23,035
Maximum Supportable Impact Fee Per Housing nrt TOTAL
Single Family Detached $2,666 $1,84b $2,833 $7,345
All Other Residential $1,492 $816. $990 $3,298
Implementation and Administration
TA recommends that Orange County adhere to the following accounting practices.
Impact fees should be placed in a separate fund and accounted for separately and only
used for the purposes authorized by the Orange County impact fee ordinance. Interest
27
.....
.. ...
Craig Benedict- OCSchFee.doc ~ ~ Page
,. ..,~r.
~.
~_ ~ ~'~
School Impact Fees Orange County, North Carolina
earned on the separate fund should be credited to the fund. School District staff should
prepare an annual statement on impact fee collections and expenditures.
All costs in the impact fee calculations are given in current dollars with no assumed
inflation rate over time. Necessary cost adjustments can be made as part of the
recommended evaluation and update of fees, every two to five years. In the interim
years between updates, Orange County may adjust for inflation in construction costs by
means of an index like the one published by engineering News Record (ENR). This
index, which is available on the internet, may be applied against the adopted fee
schedule. If cost estimates change significantly, Orange County should redo the fee
calculations.
If a specific development proposal is expected to have significantly different demand
generators than those used in this study, Orange County may allow or require a
developer to submit an independent impact fee analysis with adequate documentation
of alternative factors. Administrative procedures for the independent analysis should be
included in the ordinance that implements the impact fees.
Specific policies and procedures related to site-specific credits should be addressed in
the ordinance that establishes the school impact fees. Project improvements normally
required as part of the development approval process are not eligible for credits against
impact fees. If a developer constructs or provides a system improvement that was
' included in the fee calculations, it will be necessary for Orange County to either
reimburse the developer or provide a credit against the fees in the area that benefits
from the system improvement. The latter option is more difficult to administer because
it creates unique fees for specific geographic areas. Based on TA's experience, it is
better for the County to establish a reimbursement agreement with the developer that
constructs a system improvement. The reimbursement agreement should be limited to
a payback period of no more than ten years and the County should not pay interest on
Z8
!= raig Sene ict = bCSchF'ee.doc ~~.,~_~~ .; Page 29
S4
School Im,vact Fees
Orange County. North Carolina
the outstanding balance. The developer must provide sufficient documentation of the
actual cost incurred for the system improvement. Orange County should only agree to
pay the lesser of the actual capital cost or the estimated cost used in the impact fee
analysis. If the County pays more than ,the cost used in the fee analysis, there will be
insufficient fee revenue. Reimbursement agreements should only obligate Orange
County to reimburse developers annually according to actual fee collections from the
benefiting area.
~' Appendix A -Cash Flow Analysis
The cash flow analysis documents projected capital costs and revenues for public
schools based on the growth forecast for Orange County. Actual costs and revenues
will vary with fluctuations in building permit activity. Also, the projected capital costs are
only a portion of total capital projects, which may include renewal and replacement
items (e.g., replacing the roof on an existing school).
Detailed demographic data used in the cash flow model are summarized in Figure A1.
See Appendix B for an explanation, of projection methods and data sources.
Figure A7 -Demographic Data
29
R T'r~in Ranarlir-t - (~CSrhl=aa rlnr.
School Impact Fees
Q,-anQe County, North .Carolina
Orange County, North Carolina Year=~ 1 2 3 4 S
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
DEMAND P120JECTIONS (cumulative)
P POPULATION 116,217 118,560 120,902 123,244 125,586 127,928
H HOUSEHOLDS 45,819 46,820 47,821 48,822 49,823 50,824
RT Total Residential Units 55,000 56,201 57,403 58,604 59,806 61,007
Rl 5ingle Family Detached 27,280 27,876 28,472 29,068 29,664 30,260
R2 AIIOtherResidential 27,720 28,326 28,931 29,537 30,142 30,748
DBI Total Avg Day Mmbrshp 15,841 16,153 16,465 16,939 17,413 17,888
D62 Orange Co District ADM 6,254 6,410 6,567 6,723 6,579 7,036
D$3 Chapel Hill - Carrboro ADM 9,587 9,743 9,898 10,216 10,534 10,852
DB4 4 /° OC SFD Hsg Units 10,912 11,150 11,389 11,627 11,866 12,104
DB5 40% OC Other Hsg Units 11,088 11,330 11,572 11,815 12,057 12,299
DB6 60% CHC SFD Hsg Units 16,368 16,726 17,083 17,441 17,798 18,156
DB7 60% CHC Other Hsg Units 16,632 16,995 17,359 17,722 18,085 18,449
DB8 0.309 OC Students From New SFD 74 74 74 74 74
D69 0.147 OC Students From New Other 36 36 36 36 36
DB10 OC ADM inc From New HU 70% 70% 70% 70% 70%
DBI l CHC Students from New SFD 138 138 138 138 138
DB12 ~
0.179 CIiC Students from New Other 65 65 65 65 65
DB13 CHC ADM Inc From New HU 131% 131% 64% 64% 64%
so
raig f3enedict - dCSchFeedoc .. Rage 31 ;
5choollmpactFees
Oran4e County, North Carolina
Figure A2 indicates the projected need for school sites, building space and relocatable
classrooms due to the projected ADM increase. LOS standards used to calculate the
school fees were also used to project the need for capital improvements. The cash flow
analysis indicates the average annual demand for additional facilities. The actual CIP
for school construction is "lumpy" due to the construction of an entire school; followed
by several years of no construction' activity.
Figure A2 -School Facilities Needed
31
School Impact Fees
Orange County, .North Carolina
Orange County, North Carolina Year=~ 1 2 3 4 S
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Cumulative Facilities Needed
Cl OC Sch Acreage 310.8 318.6 32b.4 334.1 341.9 349.7
C2 OC Sch $ldg Sq Ft 856,798 878,218 899,638 921,058 942,478 963,898
C3 OC Relocatables 13 13 14 14 14 15
C6 CHC Sch Acreage 348.0 353.7 359.3 370.8 382.4 393.9
C7 CHC Sch $ldg Sq Ft 1,409,289 1,432,153 1,455,017 1,501,755 1,548,492 1,595,230
C8 CHC Relocatables 29 29 30 31 32 33
Additional Facilities Needed Total
C1 OC Sch Acreage 8 8 8 8 8 39
C2 OC Sch Bldg Sq Ft 21,420 21,420 21,420 21,420 21,420 107,100
C3 OC Relocatables 0 1 0 0 1 2
C6 CHC Sch Acreage 6 6 12 12 12 46
C7 CHC Sch Bldg Sq Ft 22,864 22,564 46,738 46,737 46,738 185,941
C8 CHC Relocatables 0 1 1 1 1 4
Pay As-Yau-Co Expenditures Cumulative
1000 's of dollars Total
Cl OC Sch Acreage $101 $101 $100 $101 $101 $506
C2 OC Sch Bldg Sq Ft $2,809 $2,809 $2,809 $2,809 $2,809 $14,044
C3 OC Relocatables $0 $60 $0 $0 $60 $120
C4 OC Admin Bldgs $58 $58 $58 $58 $58 $289
C5 OC Transp Fac &Veh $64 $65 $64 $64 $6S $322
C6 CHC Sch Acreage $137 $134 $276 $278 $276 $1,102
C7 CHC Sch Bldg Sq Ft $2,998 $2,998 $6.129 $6,129 $6,129 $24,382
C8 CHC Relocatables $0 $60 $60 $60 $60 $240
C9 CHC Admin Bldgs $50 $49 $101 $101 $101 $402
CIO CHC Transp Fac &Veh $64 $64 $131 $131 $131 $521
32
- ~~:~cnree.
~., .
School Impact Fees
Oran a Coun North Carolina
'~, As shown in Figure A3, annual school impact fee revenue in Orange County School
District is expected to average $1.89 million over the next five years. The five types of
capital casts shown below correspond to the individual cost components in the school
impact fee calculations. The major capital component is for school buildings, with a
projected average annual expenditure of $2.8 million. Based solely on impact fee
~' revenue, Orange County School District faces a projected deficit of approximately $1.16
i million per year for capacity-related capital improvements.
The table below indicates the local cost of facilities (i.e., paid for by Orange County)
needed to accommodate the projected ADM increase. In the Orange County District,
i
additional residential units only account for approximately 70% of the projected ADM
increase. The remaining students come from existing residential units (both natural
increase and new residents moving into existing housing).
As shown below, Orange County District has a current impact fee fund balance of
approximately $69,000.
Figure A3 -Orange County District Cash Flow Summary
33
-~--
Craig Benedict - OCSchFee doc Page
__ u....w.._.~.,,
.. .
School impact Fees
Orange County, North Carolina TA Demographic Data 2/12101
Qran a Coun North Carolina
(Curren15 in thousandsy 1 2 3 4 5 Cumulative Averaga
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total Annual
1 OC Sch Fee - SFD 51,279 $1,279 81,279 $1,279 $1,279 $6,393 $1,274
2 OC Sch Fee -Other Res 8615 $615 $615 8615 8615 $3,075 $615
Tota! Irnpacf Fee Revenue $1,894 1,894 1, 4 1, 1,894 $9,468 $1,894
OC School Sites $101 $101 $1D0 $101 51 I $506 $101
OC School Buildings $2,809 52,809 $2,809 82,809 $2,809 $14,044 82,809
OC Relocata6les $0 $60 $D $0 860 $12D $24
OC Support Buildings $58 $58 $58 $58 558 $289 $58
OC Vehicles 564 865 864 $64 $65 $322 864
Tafaf Capita[ Costs 3,032 3,093 3,031 32 9 $15,280 83,056
NBT CAPITAL FACILlTlES CASH FLOW -Orange Cnunfy District Pub lic Schaals Current S in thousands
Annual Surplus (orDeEicit) In itBal ~ti!.I?~~ i~:.i~~~i~ i5i.l: ~~ .IS~i ~~I.I~~~~i i~'~.~!~~ i~l.lr'i
Cumulative Surplus (or Deficit) 869 ~ .~. ~. %~ ~'~'.''•'%~ ~~.~. ~" ~ i ~'~ !.;' it i`,', i ~ ~
34
~• ~
~ Schpp! Impact,Fees Orange County, North Carolina,
Annual school impact fee revenue in Chapel Hill -Carrboro District is expected to
average $3.8 million aver the next five years. The five types ofi capital costs shown
below correspond to the individual cost components in the school impact fee
calculations. The major capital component is for school buildings, with a projected
average annual expenditure of $4.9 million. As shown below, Chapel Hill -Carrboro
District has a current impact fee fund balance of approximately $6.3 million. However,
this amount will be spent on capacity-related capital improvements over the next five
years. Based solely on impact fee revenue, Chapel Hill -Carrboro District faces a
projected deficit of approximately $1.5 million per year for capacity-related capital
improvements.
The table below indicates the local cost of public school facilities needed to
accommodate the projected ADM increase. Over the next five years in the Chapel Hill -
Carrboro District, additional residential units account for approximately 80% of the
projected ADM increase. The remaining students come existing residential units (both
natural increase and new residents moving into existing housing).
Figure A4 -- Chapel Hill -Carrboro District Cash Flow Summary
35
!`Craig Benedict - ~CSchFee.doc ~ ~_ .. Page
School Impact Fees
Orange County, North Carolina TA Demographic Data 2/12!01
Orange County, North Carolina
(Current $ in rhousarrds/ I 2 3 4 5 Cumulative Average
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total Annual
3 CHC Sch Fee - SFD $2,626 2,626 $2,626 2,62 2, 2 $]3,132 $2,626
4 CHC SchFee-OtherRes $1,198 $1,198 $1,198 51,198 51,198 55,991 51,198
Tora! /mpacr Fee Revenue 25 ,82 5 3,825 519,123 53,825
CHC School Sites 5137 5134 5276 5278 5276 51,102 5220
CHC School Buildings $2,998 $2,998 $6,129 $6,129 $6,129 $24,382 $4,876
CHC Relocatables 50 560 560 560 $60 5240 548
CHC Support Buildings 350 549 5101 $101 $101 $402 580
CHC Vehicles $64 $64 $131 $131 $131 $521 51D4
Tora! Capital Casts ,24 7 326,647 $5,329
NET CAP/TAC FACIL/T/ES CASK FLOW - Chapei Riii - Ca rrbora pistrrct Public Schools Current 5 in rhaus•ands
Annual Surplus (orDe6cit) InitBal 3576 3519 ~~-.•~~:'~ ~)'~~'"'~ i~'.,,%'i ~~~.;-~~ ~;.^~;~
Cumulative Surplus (or Deticit) $6,327 $6,903 $7,422 33,549 31,675 ~:r 1. i : ~.i
Appendix B -Student Generation Rates and Projections
36
~~~~
MEMORANDUM
T0: Craig Benedict, Planning Director
Orange County, North Carolina
FROM: Tischler & Associates, Inc.
DATE: February 12, 2001
SUBJECT: Student Generation Rates and Projections
This memorandum documents the demographic data and development
projections that will be used by Tischler & Associates, Inc. (TA) in the
school impact fee study. Figure 1 summarizes population, housing unit
and countywide public school student growth, measured by Average
Daily Membership (ADM). According to these projections, population
is expected to increase at a rate of approximately 2.0% per year, while
countywide ADM increases at a rate of 2.8% per year.
The population data shown below includes people living in group-
quarters, such as university students in dormitories. Because
population in group-quarters is not relevant to the school impact fee
calculations, TA held constant the 1990 census figure of approximately
9,000 people living in group-quarters (rounded to thousands). The
population projection shown in Figure 1 is derived using a linear
growth formula and the average annual population growth rate from
1990 to 1999. A 1999 population estimate of 11,533 was obtained from
the U.S. Census Bureau.
Based on building permit records and a field survey of apartment
units, the Orange County Planning Department estimates there are
approximately 22,000 housing units in the Orange County School
District and 33,000 housing units in the Chapel Hill - Carrboro
District. Using this base data, TA converted future year population
projections into housing unit and household data.
~~~
Figure 1-Orange County Comprehensive Plan Projections
2001 2006 2011
Population 116,217 ].27,92$ 139,639
Housing Units 55,000 61,007 67,015
Households 45,$19 50,824 55,829
Pub Sch ADM 15,841 17,888 20,259
2001 to 2011
Avera e Annual
Increase r wth Rate
2,342 2.0%
1,202 2.2%
1,001 2.2%
442 2.8%
Orange County Growth Indicator
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60, 000
40,000
20,000
0
2001 2006 2011
- • - Population f Housing Units Households ^-'~-Pub Sch ADM ',
Along-range planning horizon is necessary for planning capital improvements.
However, a shorter time frame of five years will be used for the cash flow analysis of
impact fees. Level-of-service standards will be calibrated using data for school year
and fiscal year 2000-2001 and the first projection year for the cash flow model will
be 2002 (i.e., FY2001-2002).
.~ ~ - - -
• "
3
4 ~ `- ~'L C,i '~
As shown in Figure. 2, Orange County had 38,683 housing units in 1990. The
blended, or weighted average, household size in 1990 for all housing types was 2.34
persons per household. After reviewing the detailed household size data, TA
recommends using two residential categories in the impact fee calculations. A
differentiation in impact fees by type of housing (i.e., Single Family Detached versus
All Other Residential) is recommended to make the fees proportionate to the
demand for public schools. Student generation rates by type of housing are
discussed below.
Units in
Structure
1-Detached
1-Attached
Two
3or4
5 or more
Mobile Homes
Other
Total
Source: 1990 US Census data from STF1A.
X 990 Persons Per Household by Type
Vacant HU
Vacancy Rate
~sg_Units
19,172
1,647
1,442
1,649
9,546
4,856
371
38,683
2,579
6.7%
sons Hsehlds PPH Hhld Mix
Single Family Detached 48,489 18,313 2.65 50.7%
All Other Housing Types 36,138 17,791 2.03 49.3%
Group Quarters 9,224
TOTAL 93,851
Figure 2 -Persons Per Household in Orange County
Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied Combined
Persons sehlds PPbI ersons H~ehlds PPH Persons s ds PPH
40,180 15,125 2.66 8,309 3,1$$ 2.61 4$,489 18,313 2.65
1,662 860 1.93 1,400 620 2.26 3,062 1,480 2.07
244 117 2.09 2,497 1,230 2.03 2,741 1,347 2.03
187 98 1.91 2,947 1,451 2.03 3,134 1,549 2.02
539 333 1.62 15,305 8,303 1.84 15,844 8,636 1.83
8,108 3,291 2.46 2,587 1,155 2.24 10,695 4,446 2.41
313 124 2.52 349 209 1.67 662 333 1.99
51,233 19 948 2.57 33,394 16,156 2.07 84,627 36,104 2.34
a
4
TA obtained 1996 through 2000 ADM data from the Official Statement for the sale
of General Obligation Bonds on 4/4/00. School year 200-2001 ADM data were
provided by the Orange County and Chapel Hill - Carrboro School Districts. Figure
3 provides alternative ADM projections for the Orange County School District. TA
used the linear alternative in the school impact fee calculations.
Figure 3 -Orange County School District ADM
~~~
Annnal Hase 1886 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Avg
Change Value actual =~ projection years (x) =7 Anl
(b) ~p~ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Inc
2.4"/0 6,254 Exponential 5,581 5,818 5,983 6,074 6,166 6,254 6,404 6,558 6,715 6,876 7,041 7,210 7,383 7,561 7,742 7,928 167
2.5% 6,254 Linear (recommended) 5,561 5,918 5,993 6,074 6,166 6,254 6,41D 6,567 6,723 6,879 7,038 7,182 7,348 7,505 7,661 7,818 156
5.0% 6,254 Logarithmic 5,561 5,91$ 5,993 6,074 6,166 6,254 6,471 6,598 6,687 6,757 6,814 6,862 6,904 6,941 6,974 7,004 75
1.9% Lnr Trend Extrap 5,561 5,918 5,993 6,074 6,166 6,254 6,423 6,546 6,668 6,791 6,914. 7,036 7,159 7,2$1 7,404 7,526 127
--_~.~ ____._T~....._..._-__....`_..._.,.~_.__......_
I1'rojection Alternatives for Orange County Distric~
s,oao
s,ooo
7,000
s,ooD
5,000
4,ooa
3,DOD
I z,ooa
I,DOD
0
~ Exponential
~-- Linear (recommended) I'
. -~ Logarithmic
i
-Lnr Trend Extrap ,
lass lss7 lssa lass 2000 2aoz 2002 2003 2004 zoos zoos zoo? zoos zoos zolo zall
5
~~~
,.
The same process was Followed to derive alternative. ADM projections for the Chapel
Hill -Carrboro School District. Due to the unusually high increase in student
membership in 2001, TA recommends the linear trend extrapolation alternative, as
shown in Figure 4.
Annual Base 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200$ 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Avg
Change Value actual => projection years (x) _> pnl
(h) McShod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Inc
4.2% 9,5$7 Exponential 7,811 S,D49 8,181 8,476 8,700 9,587 9,990 10,409 10,846 11,302 11,777 12,271 12,787 13,324 13,883 14,4s$ 488
4.5% 9,587 Linear 7,811 8,049 8,181 8,476 8,700 9,587 10,018 10,450 10,881 11,313 11,744 12,175 12,607 13,038 13,470 13,901 431
5.0% 9,587 Logarithmic 7,811 8,049 8,181 8,476 8,700 9,5$7 9,919 10,114 10,252 10,358 10,446 10,520 10,584 10,640 10,691 10,736 115
3.2% Lnr Trend Extrap*
_ 7 811 8 049 8 181 8 476 8 700 9 587 9,743 9,898 10,216 10,534 10,$52 11,170 11,488 11,806 12,124 12,442 285
~ ~_,.._..... W._.
Y
u ~
!Projection Alternatives for Chapel Hill -
Carrboro District ~
i
~i ls,ooo
I
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
s,ooo
4,000
2,000
0
~~ ~-Exponential
~..~ ~'' Linear
----__._.~._-____.~........___. ._._._....._ ~ -~ Logarithmic
_.-__ -x-Lnr Trend Extrap*
Figure 4 -- Chapel Hill -Carrboro School District ADM
* The linear trend extrapolation alternative is recommended.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
6
,. ..
~~ ~ ~~u
Demographic data for the school impact fees study are summarized in Figure 5.
According to the recommended projections, the average housing increase in the
Orange County School district will be 481 units per year from 2001 to 2011. The
Orange County School District is anticipating an ADM increase of approximately
156 public school students per year.
In the Chapel Hill -Carrboro School District, the average housing increase is
expected to be 721 units per year from 2001 to 2011. Chapel Hill -Carrboro School
District anticipates an ADM increase of approximately 285 public school students
per year.
Figure 5 -Detailed Development Projections
Orange County, NC 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2070 2011
Crcmulatiue
Population in Households 107,217 109,560 111,902 114,244 116,5$fi 118,92$ 121,271 123,613 125,955 128,297 130,639
Population in Group Quarters* 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9 000 9,000
Total Population 116,217 118,560 120,902 123,244 125,586 127,928 130,271 132,613 134,955 137,297 139,639
Persons Per Household 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34
~Iouseholds 45,819 46,820 47,821 48,822 49,823 50,824 51,825 52,826 53,827 54,828 55,829
Residential Vacancy bate 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7%
Housing Units 5b,000 56,201 57,403 58,604. 59,806 61,007 62,209 63,410 64,612 65,813 67,015
Hsg Units in CHC Sch District 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60°~ 60% 60% 60%
Orange Co. District Hsg Units 22,000 22,481 22,961 23,442 23,922 24,403 24,884 25,364 25,845 26,325 26,806
Chapel Hill -Carrboro Hsg Units 33,000 33,721 34,442 35,163 35,884 36,604 37,325 35,046 38,767 39,488 40,209
Orange Co. District ADM 6,254 6,410 6,567 6,723 6,879 7,036 7,192 7,348 7,505 7,661 7,818
Chapel Hill -Carrboro ADM 9 587 9 743 9,898 10,216 10 534 10 852 11 170 11 488 11 806 12 124 12 442
TotalAv Dail Membershi 15,841 16,153 16,465 16,939 17,413 17,8$8 18,362 18,836 19,311 19,785 20,259
2oor-2or~
lnnual Increase 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-OS 08-09 09-10 Aug Ani
dotal Population 2,342 2,342 2,342 2,342 2,342 2,342 2,342 2,342 2,342 2,34:
)range Co. District Hsg Units 481 481 481 481 481 481 481 481 481 48.
.hapel Hill -Carrboro Hsg Units Tll 721 721 721 721 721 721 721 721 72'.
)range Co. District ADM 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 15~
;hapel Hill -Carrboro ADM 156 156 318 318 318 318 31$ 318 318 28
1990 group quarters population rounded to thousands.
Current housing unit and ADM data by school district were used to calibrate
student generation rates by type of housing. TA started with 1990 census data on
public school students by units in structure, as shown in Figure 6. This custom,
cross tabulation was obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. It is important to note
that the student generation rates shown at the bottom of the table are based on the
total number of housing units, not households (i.e., occupied units). The multipliers
7
~.... ~ ~ ~
are reported in this manner because school impact fees are imposed on each housing
unit constructed. Student generation rates per household are approximately 7%
higher than the multipliers shown in Figure 6.
Figure 6 -Countywide Public School Students Per Housing Unit in 1990
I990 Public School Students by Units in Structure
5-10 Yrs 11-I3 Yrs l4-I$ Yrs AZZ Grades
Elementary ~ Middle High
1 unit, detached 3,449 2,277 3,561
1 unit, attached 85 64 50
2 units 138 52 35
3 or 4 units 49 26 45
5 to 9 units 65 39 20
10 to 19 units 57 17 68
20 to 49 units 16 D 0
50 or more units 0 0 0
Mobile homes 1,538 794 1,050
Other 20 19 18
TOTAL 5,417 3,288 4,847 13,552
Source: Full-sample cross tab ulation obtained by TA from U.S. Census Bureau:
1990 Estimated Public School Students by Impact Fee Category
Elementary Middle High All Grades
Single Family Detached 3,449 2,277 3,561
All Other Residential 1 968 1,011 1,286
TOTAL 5,417 3,288 4,847 13,552
Acutal Countywide Enrollment a 10,586
1990 Housing Units by Impact Fee Category
Single Family Detached 19,172
All Other Residential 19,511
TO'T'AL 38,683
Elementary School Students Per Housing Unit in 1990
Est 1990 1990 Housing 1990
Students Enrrollment Units Multi liens
Single Family Detached 3,449 3,327 19,172 0.174
All Other Residential 1 968 1 898 19 511 0.097
Subtotal 5,417 5,225 38,683 0.135
Middle School Students Per Housing Unit in 1990
Est 1990 1990 Housing 1990
Students Enrollment Units Multi liens
Single Family Detached 2,277 1,706 19,172 0.089
All Other Residential 1 011 758 19,511 0.039
Subtotal 3,288 2,464 38,683 0.064
High School Students Per Housing Unit in 1990
Est 1990 1990 Housing 1990
Students Enrollment Units Multi liens
Single Family Detached 3,561 2,128 19,172 0.111
All Other Residential 1 286 768 19 511 0.039
Subtotal 4,847 2,897 38,688 0.075
Countywide Public School Students Per Housing Un it in I99~
Elementar Middle Hi h All Grades
Single Family Detached 0.174 0.089 0.111 0.374
All Other Residential 0.097 0.039 0.039 0.175
Weighted Avg (all hsg types) 0.135 0.064 0.075 0.274
~. ~~~
Countywide student generation rates from 1990 were calibrated to school year
2000-2001 data on housing units and ADM in the Orange County School District
(see Figure 7). Assuming that the relative contribution of public school students by
type of housing has remained constant since 1990, TA proportionately adjusted the
student generation rates for each type of school to yield the actual ADM. For
example, the 1990 countywide rates indicate an average of 0.174 elementary
students per Single Family Detached (SFD) house and 0.097 elementary students
per All Other Residential Unit. Multiplying these rates by the number of housing
units in school year 2000-2001 yields an estimated 3,573 elementary students.
However, the Orange County District only has 3,078 elementary students (ADM) in
school year 2000-2001. Therefore, the generation rates for elementary students in
the Orange County District were adjusted downward to match the actual ADM.
This process was repeated for middle and high school data, with the adjusted
student generation rates summarized at the bottom of Figure 7.
Current housing unit estimates were refined by Orange County planning staff to
shift doublewide manufactured housing units into the Single Family Detached
category. Only singlewide mobile homes remain in the All Other Residential
category.
9
n
Figure 7 -Public School Students Per Housing Unit
in Orange County District, 2000-2001
1990 Countywide Public School Students Per Housing Unit
Elementar Middle Hi h All Grades
Single Family Detached
All Other Residential
All Hsg Types (blended)
0.174 0.0$9 0.111
0.097 0.039 O.D39
0.135 0.064 0.075
Elementary School Students Per Housing Unit in SYOD-01
0.374
0.175
0.274
Housing Estimated Actual Adjusted
Units Students ADM Multi liens
Single Family Detached 1$,682 3,251 0.150
All Other Residential 3,318 322 0.084
22,000 3,573 3,078 0.14
Middle School Students Per Housing Unit in SY00-01
Housing Estimated Actual Adjusted
Units Students ADM Multi liens
Single Family Detached 18,682 1,663 0.075
All Other Residential 3,318 129 0.033
22,000 1,792 1,504 0.065
High School Students Per Housing Unit in SY00-Ol
Housing Estimated Actual Adjusted
Units Students ADM Multi liens
Single Family Detached 18,682 2,074 0.084
All,Other Residential 3,31$ 129 0.030
22,000 2,203 1,672 0.076
Public School Students Per Housing Unit in OC District, SYOD-DI
Elementar Middle Hi h All Grades
Single Family Detached
All Other Residential
All Hsg Types (blended)
0.150 0.075 0.084
0.084 0.033 0.030
0.140 0.06$ 0.076
0.309
0.147
0.284
10
~~~~
The process described above was repeated to adjust countywide student generation
rates from 1990 to school year 2000-2001 data on housing units and ADM in the
Chapel Hill -Carrboro School District (see Figure 8). The adjusted student
generation rates are summarized at the bottom of Figure S.
Figure S _ Public School Students Per Housing Unit
in Chapel Hill -Carrboro District, 2000-2001
1990 Countywide Public School Students Per Housing Uni
Elementary Middle ]~7irsh
Single Family Detached
All Other Residential
All Hsg Types (blended)
0.174 o.os9 0.111
0.097 0.039 0.039
0.135 0.064 0.075
Elementary School Students Per Housing Unit in SYDD-01
All Grades
0.374
0.175
0.274
Housing Estimated Actual Adjusted
Units Students ADM Multi liens
Single Family Detached 17,877 3,111 0.168
All Other Residential 15,123 1,467 0.094
33,000 4,578 4,419 0.134
Middle School Students Per Housing Unit in Sy00-Ol
Housing Estimated Actual Adjusted
Units Students ADM Multi liens
Single Family Detached 17,877 1,591 0.095
All Other Residential 15,123 590 0.042
33,000 2,181 2,325 0.07
High School Students Per Housing Unit in SY00-01
Housing Estimated Actual Adjusted
Units Students ADM Multi liens
Single Family Detached 17,877 1,984 0.123
All Other Residential 15,123 590 0.043
33,000 2,574 2,843 0.086
Public School Students Per Housing Unit in CHC District, SY00-01
Elementar Middle Hi h All Gr d
Single Family Detached
All Other Residential
All Hsg Types (blended)
0.16$ 0.095 0.123
0.094 0.042 0.043
0.134 0.070 . 0.0$6
a es
0.386
0.179
0.290
11