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Home My WebLink AboutAgenda - 05-17-2005-5yORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM AB5TRACT Meeting Date: May 17, 2005 Action AgenSda Item No. SUBJECT: Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) -Approval of 2005 SAPFOTAC Recommendations DEPARTMENT: Manager/Budget/Planning/ Attorney PUBLIC HEARING: (Y/N) No ATTACHMENT(S): Draft SAPFOTAC Annual Report (under separate cover) INFORMATION CONTACT: Rod Visser, ext 2300 Craig Benedict, ext 2592 TELEPHONE NUMBERS: Hillsborough 732-8181 Chapel Hill 968-4501 Durham 688-7331 Mebane 336-227-2031 PURPOSE: To approve student membership projections of the Orange County Schools (OCS) and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS), as cutlined in the 2005 Report of the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC), BACKGROUND: At the December 14, 2004 Board of County Commissioners meeting, the Board approved the November 15, 2004 actual student membership numbers and the building capacity numbers based on the 2003-04 individual school building capacity for both school systems, At the December 14, 2004 meeting, the Board also received the 10-year student membership projections for both Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools. At the March 1, 2005 BOCC meeting, the Board reviewed the draft of the 2005 SAPFOTAC report, Subsequently, the draft report was posted on the Orange County Planning Department's web site. A letter and the Executive Summary of the report was sent to all SAPFO partners on April 14, 2005 advising them of the availability of the draft report and inviting comment. Comments were requested for submission prior to May 10, 2005, No comments have been received to this point, The exact pages of the 2005 SAPFOTAC report and recommendations that the BOCC will be approving are listed below, The full report contains the context (i.e. definitions and standards) of the various SAPFO elements, Element Page in SAPFOTAC Re ort Student Membership 23 Average of 5 models will be used, as noted Projection Methodology in #3 on page 23 No Chan e Student Membership 46 and 47 Orange County Elementary, Middle, Projections and High Schools Student Projections (rows identified as "Average") (p, 46) Chapel Hill/Carrboro Elementary, Middle, and High Schools Student Projections (rows identified as (Change) "Avers e" .47 Student Growth Rates .51 Orange County Elementary, Middle, and High Schools Chapel Hill/Carrboro Elementary, (Change) Middle, and Hi h Schools Student Generation Rates 54 Orange County Elementary, Middle, and High Schools • Chapel Hill/Carrboro Elementary, (No Change) Middle, and Hi h Schools (Change) denotes a change from last year, FINANCIAL IMPACT: Precise financial impacts cannot be determined, but possible changes in projected building capacity and projected growth in student membership for the next ten years will have impacts an future operating and capital budgets measured in the tens of millions of dollars, RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends that the Board approve the following recommendations from the 2005 SAPFOTAC Annual Report, which items are summarized in the table above: (1) Student Membership Projection Methodology (2) Student Membership Projections (3) Student Growth Rates (4) Student Generation Rates ORANGE COUNTY, IoTC SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUI3Y..IC FACILITIES ORDINANCE I'REP.~.RLD BY A ST.4FP CO~I~ITTTEi•,.: PLAtiNII~G DIRECTORS, SCFIOOI: REPEZESENTATI'~'ES, TECN~IC:iI. A:UVISOEZY C'O~T~II"I'"TEE: (sAProTAC) (PURSUANT TO PROV~ISIO~s or .a viE~IORAnn~oa°r ar LiNDERSTANDING ADOPTED T\ 2002 ~Qi 2003) (ORDINANCES ADOPTED IN JULY, 2003) Annual Report 200.5 (BASED ON ~'OVEIIBER 2004 DATA) CE;IZ'I'IFIED BY TIIE BOC:C ON XXX, 2005 Table of Contents t'agc Executive Summar)~ ... ... _~...... _.. ... .m 1nU•oduction . Schools ;ldequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners _. .. _. _. t•: Planning Directors, School Representatives, Technical Advisor}' Committee (SAPFOTAC) members_ _ _ _ ~' L Base ~Temorandunr oT iJnderstanding .4. L:erelofService .............................................................._...........1 B. Building Capacit}' _ _ ......., .._._. _ _ _ 2 Rnr:citnr~ra 1 Bl ' Orrn;ye C'ntutr: Sritur~i C79<:ctt <! t e:i ~,nril eft, 1!J!)? {2002 - EtA~E) _ „tu:Chutrnt ~ 1.11.3. - C'impel Hii! ar:d Curnor<r jci;ou? Q,anc itizc dated ;fpri! 39, .0!33 (3002 - B-SE) ..,. t> n:,<. a. rn.t ur JB 3 -Orange. Cu.urn: Sehan: G:n ZC:r. /Flea: cr, trtrT, :Ulirld:e d f,'iglt Strtvo7j (2Q0~)_, __ ... .drrrcltmet.r: l.R ~7 - Cinyn+l lliiL'C'urrhnrn .Sd:oo! Crpociry (Elc'tnertlary} d~lidrNa~ r:- Higlt .School,i 12Q03), .. t0 tr::alv>:ert: t B..?. - O,urge C'um;n' S:;tn, t:.,. .,. i;:- rt.,'amerrfar,~. adidrl?e c~ 1'~8/. ,Scxno:) x'00=. V.., ... P .?ti.:c; 'petit: 1_h' f. - Chnper J'rt rt Carrbwr~ Se.5no1 r' p .c-!~' (Tien ervtu'V;, ~9rddle fi Xfg1, Su ;iJ (20q~j._-.,17 C:. ~Tembership Date . _. _ _ _ 2) Il. Annual L`pdaTc to Schools Adequate Public i~acilities Ordinance S}stem A. (~apital Investment Plan (CIP) ... ., , _ . _. _.. ._. _ ?~ ._. _... B. Student ~'Iembership Projection ~iethodolu;}' _ ~- ,:;:u~ltrrerr Il..r?.1 - Studenrri/emGarsn u r'ru cctirt; t~:+ccr•,!+tions ..... ... ..._ _.3~ .-0stacintent: 11.11? .Srrtrf.,'trdJeorirer~l~hi'ro~cct:n;.;fndr.lsl'~~rior'~nrunce.4tttt{t'str. .__.. _,4 C. Student Membership Projections . _ _. . _ ._._ z,~ ., ttuc:+n ant I1.C.1. Ormrge. f,'uwrlc Slt«;e's ?t rtec:nns (Eianrentt;r7, 19et411e of N„Tt ,Se,•uui; (2G?y .. ~_ -i::ncrnse,:t. I! C'3. - G4ttpeF Htll.•Car,~b~r~ 5...:1. ,. ? 7~ •e;ons (Ele•ntenlur};, ,Hirlrtlu <i~ 1•rCr. Sctmau :-:':_i . `. :itr.] t n-d:r:;: TI C~3. - Urrr;Sc C'nut!q StuderX Prcttc crazy IE:en; entrr3q ~L-Iidd?u d'• Ili~it .Su rm:j r?~ ~j -_ .ittccltnrert.. 11 C~J -('7ur1+z11li!&Z'arr'bnrn Sn,a'aut;'ra%r~tiws (6iente,!tmY, ~1-ltrtdte' ct llrFh Sclennii f2tT=r;1„± .1fa]i:,'mtanf' 11 L`.5. - Clrmtge Count}-~turiant Prrrec•iat,a (ciean~ntor}, ,i.rddlr r% Ateh ac&coi/ i?i, ~=i .. _.~6 :?rtac„~w;!- 1/GG. -C7:npelNilb'C'nrrloro5-r'entTtnjecrtonr~F7e»;errlar~+, ~t,4ddlerF~ ~L;r Cr-rcuit r ~~_}..a7 L). Student ~'Tembcrship (irorvth Rate . _ _ ._ .. _. __ .,.. a :;rcritn: e+tr ilSLi. -ClranJ,re C.'ntrmr & CJa{cue Hil'%C':.rrboro Jtrrdenf rromtif Rntrs C; ~t23 ,born 3UlJ~ -?013 hated rir r < ' jqi,' raa;bc;:cittp ntrnri,en (2003) ._ ... _._.._ z9 ..ti6ClllY. e>:i, 11.1)?.-OrtHrgP Co:u;n'ri~Ci:a;'%elf/fbC'un ~Orn .Srulent (d'OIti:111iatre C' c r rlre+'; out 3!10.' -'.?O!d L•uszd w....Z:::.i n.en„izrsl,ip rtun:herr{21rU3) ........ ....... _ _ .irS -ictrel:nk°,x: 11 U.?. - CJrcnge Cnnnn' ~~ C'htty;~r is"!f'C:v-!~ho; ~+.$1tu9en! Grrrvti, P, rtes .. .. , C:7::a::(ata:lrnu: 3073: - 3U1? nmad a .:..U., mcr.,,ctsL~p ttun:bers fZDu1) _.... _.. ' !. Student /Housing Generation hate _._ _.___..._ ,irn,trmr>:! iL E1. C'k,ayel rldL'C ur,'Sc nS.: 'rr r-r <: '. 7:on h:uc~ (_ ._) ._ _. _..~~ lli. l~Il~mtlru•t of Schools Adequate Puilic P.tcilities Ordi~tanca Process :1. t'rocess 1 -Capital Tn~esnnent flan _ __ __ _s: .~, ._,_ _ ...w_~._ ::, ~ uate Public Facilities Ordiuancec B. Process _ -Schools .atieq Certificate of ;ldeiluate Public Schools (C:~PS) 5~~stem "_. _ _.._ _ _ _ ~- _~11acltnko;f. A7 lS 1--Prnci.~s 2 ('rrL;; i~ t, ~_ '_r):r- F iidic Sdronls fC'r1'S/,~I!lnc:rNon .... _ _59 R`. additional :lttactttncnts .. ~ ,._ .. .: , . : s_ _. s ~" .__ BOZC - _.-. ..,, _ ,;. the+ra. C, "': .::-.: _. ,s '.. , rrr ..., ,... - .. _.... t.u. n.a r.t lY - (, i:anrl fri:. ~,. n? ,r, C.. r 1u ..,~s~ .r:;rr.;imtn to _ n.. rec.. _..~_ :.,~ .-;. b6 2005 Sl1PI't)TAC E~ectltivc Sulnmarr' I. Base 1lentorandum of 1lnderstanding .A. Level of Service ..............................................(~\'u Clrrurhe),.....,,.P, 1 C'hrrprJlJilGCarrhoro ''~~, Orrrrt,{>eC.nurrt}' 11U9o B. Building C:upacity and ~Icmbership .........................(Grurtae)..........Pg. 2 ('lrapel JTJJUCarrLaro Ormrge Corrutr ScUool Drstricr __ ~ .Sckonl Disrricr __ _ Capacity \tembenhip^ increase C:apncih• \Ienrber+hip""" increase Gom Prior from Prior v _ __ _ ~ Tear I Year n92! d69? ! 3 ! :S2UIr1UU)*` 3Ui6'( vU r:s .'v= C. ~Icmbership Date -;Vovenrber 1 j, 3404...........(,h`n t.:'karrge).......P;.?I i1. lnnual Updutc tv SAYI•'O 5~•stem :~. Capital lnvestntent Plan (CIP) ............................(Clrunge)......,,..P~. 23 B. Student 7~Ietnbership Projection \Icthvdolog~•....../.•Vo Chun;;e).......Pg. 33 :Ire :neva~e of 3, .i, :auf Jfi rem•?:ic.;%rt'C;, prr ctrr•,~f•, ~:! anal ? frirear prrjar.,+irrt r:ntielt. C, Student \Iemhcrship Projections .............................{(,7urnse)...........Pg.~B 5 Year out Snapshot Comparison (a.^oty indicate; inrhether there «.:5::n ;.^.erzzsz or dzcrz2se in pn~jection tuts! bet«zzn prior }=cer and subsaµ:cnt voar) I. Clrape! IIi1LCurrburo Sahuul Uirbra '', Orcn3a Con++7r Schuul Uinria ~ppi U. Student Growth Rate ............................................(C'/~nrrgc)..........P:;. -!S Orrnrgc C'orurq• SchuaJDisn'ict I o L. Student 1 Flnusing C;encratiou Race ....................(.+1'u Chmr;;e),......P~. S3 i (2i)OS 1'szcutive Stnntnary continues} SCHOnL, ADEQIa:~TE I'I'BLIC; FACII_I't'IIS OI2llINA~C1 STAT[.`S (based em ftuure year Suuiznt \izmbzrshin Projections] 1 ]lc i0110~~'ing 111IOrn7atlQlt [ClatCS t0 eSi.1111_°_ SCh001 CCrittled CapaClttCS and IS ilUt rala[ed t0 P.CU' le- islztion front DYl (Ueuartment otYubL'C ittsmtctior.) aflcctinc elementary schools. CII.IPGL I!/L!./CARRBURU SC:IIODL DISTRICT 1:Icmentan School District A. Does not currently execCil lU~°~ LOS standards (current LOS is 96.~1R~a). 13. DccrrasC in the increase of the ~~ro~rth ratz at this lzvzl over the nzxi lU years. C:.. C}tancl Hill?Cartboro Flemzntary School =1U should be scheduled fora 2009-! U oncnini diddle School Disfrict A Rocs not currently exceed l07°,b LOS standards (current LOS is 90. t °6) B DCCrcase in the increase of the ;-rowth rite at thin Icve] over dtc Heal lU }ears C. Chapel Hi1L'Carrboro Zliddle Schoo( _~ would lil:zh' be projected for 2013-1z versus tirz prior yzar projectiat of'?OU9-t0 High School District ~. C'unzrnly zxczeds the 1 IU"io L(.>S standard (current T:OS is 7 1.2,5`%), but \letnorandutn cif l:ndztsanding (A•1OU) suspended [he Certificate Adequate Public Schools (C;1PS) adeouacv test at this level so (-:\PS mae• still he issuer.. B. Dzcrzasz in the increase of the urowth ratz at this level ovzr the next 1 U ~,~ears- C Chapel 11ilUCarrboro 1-filth School =3 is still nzzdzd as soon as possible kith current construction schzdule Cstitnates aI 3006-2007 but with a likely change to 2Up7-20Di;. OR:aA'Gt (.'OC.~~'TYSG'IIUOLDISTRICT Elcmentarr Scliooi District \_ Does not currently zxezed 1US:b Lq5 standard (current LOS is "t9.0`%). B. Increase in dtz increase of the erowth rate :tt this Ievzl ovzt the next 10 wars,. C". Does not •aftzct or prompt C1P activity in l U-czar timzfiamc. Middle School District .4 Presently ai IU5.7°in LOS which zxczzds ll)7"L LOS standard but Memorandum oi' l'nderstanding (h4OU) susnended thz C`zt ~ificate Adcgttme Public Schools (C'APS) adzquacy test at ibis level until Oranue County Schoo] District (()C:SD} 1•iisdie School ovens so CAPS ntai~ still be sued. l3. hureasz in the increase of the rtrowth ratz at this level over rite nest ] 0 years. C OCSi) \gidd(z School r3 is still needzs as soon as possible with construction scitzrulz estimates at 200G-2U0?- High Schonl District A. i:)ocs ^Oi Currently exceed 11(?".,n L.OS I Curreni LOS is S t, 7°0). B. I)elrei.;e !It i11C nler'CaSC O(ihe Ert~~C[it 1'aie ::i i1tt5 1B\'cl O~'CC the 172X1 l t) V2ar5. C'. Doss not ai feet or prompt C'iE' activity in 10-year time frame. - Ut•ange Count', \C School ;ldcyuute Public Facilities Ordinance i\'iROllUC'I°iU\ The Sdutnls Adequate Public Faciiiiies C)rdinancernii its A4emorandum <ai [.~iid CYSt2ttdin~ arC Ufdl ^tlnL'eti aittl a~re6inc'Iti S. I::SpCCiYt'Cty.. Sitpporlmg doCUntett[S arC anticipated to be dynamic to incorporate the annual changing conditions of ntemhership, capacit~° and studem nmjeaions that may afieet School Capital Ln~esunent Plan (CiP) timing- TiYis fot'ntal 2tunlal report +vill he Ibrthcoming to ai] of tl?c Schools .~deyuate Nublic P2ciLtics Ordinance partners each year as ttew inCointation is 2t ailablc. Iles updated information is used in rite schools capital needs process ol'ihe Capitat Im esiment Ptan (Process 1) and n`ithin eiemer•ts of the Schools Adeyua[e Public l~acilitics Ordinance Cenifieate oCAdequate Public Schools (C':\PS) spreadsheet system (Process 2). This report and any connnents from the Schools .~dequaty' Public Facilities Urdinancc parmers will be considered in dtt: !first half of each year by the Board of County Commissioners at 2 regttIar or special meeting. the ~~arious elements Of the report arc then "certifier." 2nd fornr~lh~ considered in the process of the ttncomil?~ <.'anital Invesunent Plan. I'1YC (:crtiiica[e of ~.dCgUaiC PCIb1YC SC110015 SVStcitt IS Upd2tcd ~`fiei' ~Obelt?bCt' 1 ] \p}1Cn dala 1S ieCelVed troYn the school districts n'ith actual ntemhership and pra•certilicd capacity (i.e. C1P capacity or poor ,joint action" capacity changes) Ilse Schools :\deyuate Public Facilities Ordinance and vfemorandunt of lJndcrstandins hare dyn2mir aspects Thm dem•ation of du baseline and update to rite varableswiil contirtic in iht: fUitirC 2. 3 ~`arlely' of SCh001 t'Cia[Cd IS5[lG5 [•Yre itP.e-illP.ed b1` 1rCTim C21 [l ild pOhCV ;7 ro UpS. the primary facet of [his rcpot2 ttteludes the. creation of ntathentatical projections for student memberships by school ic~•els 1.'F.~lentent2n•, A4iddle anti High) and by School T~ist~ facts (Chapel Hill%C'2rrboru attd Onnige Cbunn~'), This inforntatiim is found in Section 11, Subsections B. C. D.•ard F. In sunmtary; this repon scrt'cs as an ltpdare to rite dynamic conditions of school membership school capaciiy, and housing derclopment, ~.~ ilich e!Tects (attire proiections. as vweit as. Capital Tm~estmcut Planning- Tnterested parties may mate their cote:rents know: n to the Board of County C'omrnissirn?crs prior to their reeler: of [hr roper and school CTT' cornpletton. In A\tNUAL REPORT AS OUTLINrD IN Schools .:adequate Public Facilities Ordinance NIelnorandum of Understandinb (Schools API+4 tiIOL~ SECTION Id RCSPTCTFULLY SUBMITTED TO SCHOOLS ADr:QUATE PUBLIC I~'ACILITiES ORDIN ~ti CE PARTNr RS Chapel Hillr`C:arrhoro School Disiric[ ' Orange County School lllstrict School ;\1'P'O School AYh"U _. _ _ _._ Board of Count~~ Commissioners 3oard o~County Commissioners (:arrboro Board of Akierutcn liillsborou~~h Toum Ch::pcl Hill Town Council Citapcl HilliCarrboro School 130, rd C)ran~e Couttt~~ School Board is I'lannin~ Directors/School Representatives Technical Advisory Committee Orange County Planning Deparhnent Ct•aig 13enetlict. Planning Director 306-P Re~'ere Road Y.O. Box 5181 Hillsborough, \'C: 27278 1"o~~"n of Chapel Bill Roger ~yaldon, Planning Director 306 \, Columbia Street Chapel HiIL forth Gtrolina 275L6 To~cn of iTillsborott~h Margaret Hauth, Planning Director P.O. Box 439 Hilisborou„h, \C 27278 Orange Counr<• School District Shirle~• Carrawa}", Superintendent 200 E. King Street IIillshorouah, \C 27278 Carrboro Planning Deparhnent Rn~• «'illilurd, Planning llircctor P.O. Box 829 Carrboro. tiC 27SIU Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District Steve Scruggs, Support Services 750 Merritt ~Iili Road Chapel Hill, AC 257].6 Includes: SAPFUT..aCiO.C". Budnet Liaison Donna Dean 208 South Cameron Street P.O. Box 8I81 Hillsborough. AC' 27278 1. BASl1'i~:n'ioli:~~l)u~l of ti~uF:ltS'rA~nl~c, .~. bevel of Service 1 ResparsiGle L•"rrtit}~ for Srrogesring Clrmr~e - C'hrange cnn onl)~ be ecfzctuuted b~' at??endntent to Jletnorrudt:m of L ttdzt'_.taniiinv (~4QLi) by all Sehvnl APFO parmers.. Z)efrnitinn -Level oCSerr•ice (f OS) means the amount (level) oI"studcnis that c:ni be accotrmodated (saniced) at a certain school system ;lade gnaup [i.a., Elementara~ lave) (IC-S), ~f fiddle L,cvel ('G•S), lliglt School Level (J-12j]. Standard • for: Standard,/or: Chapel Hill Carrbm•o School ])ish•ict Orange Coutaty School llistricr >. 3 Elementar} tl4iddlc T~iigh School los'i~ lug^~~ ~i~ Ilo~i, Elementary iSTiddle high School lOS'%, i\!A 110'x„ 107~~0 \'.`, --Phis meads the School Al'PQ Adcquac)' Tcst 112x' been "suspended" in accordance with addettdums to the 14emorandum oPt;nderstandinv unii) ptroposed cap. city is 2dded itt the specific school level arcs. .dnalt•sis ufExistitrg f.'onditinus Chapel Hill Carrboro Schoot District I here standards are acecpt2ble 2t ibis i=.me. Please rote that the High School Adequacy test Etas been suspended (i.c., does not apply) until the neu Hi~~h School opens ti'hich is scheduled for 1'alt. 20L1' 2t which time the lest 'or the Nigh School will be automatically reinstated. :1 nalt's!s of E.clstir:,; Condrtiuns Orange County School L)istrict ! here standards are accepttible at this tittle. Yle;ase note that the D•iiddlc School i~dequacy test has been suspended (i..e_, does nut apph`i until. the nc«' i\4iddlc School onens which is scheduled for Fall, 200G at ~.vhich time i1tC test for the t~liddlc Scltoot will be autos?aticully roinst2tcd. ~. Recnnunenrlatinn - Reconrnrendatlnrr- ~o C'itanrc fi~oin above standurd \o Ci:anue fron'1 above standard .Sc C:i071 / B. Building C:~pacitS~ 1 " ResPnnsihle T:ntita~ fiu•.Suggestiug C/range - Thz Planning t)iteclors, School R,eprescntatit°cs, Technical :Adti-icon" Committez (S:~PFOT.IC:) ~~~ill reczi=:z requz;tz<1 changes that are C]Y related 2nd atioptcd i ~ dte prior year.. CIP capacity chan«s v. ii] b;r undated along with actual mzmberslti]> rzcziz•zd itt \oi•cmbcr of each tc2r. 0[hzr changes t~•ill be sent to a'Joint fiction Conunitted of the BOCC and Board of Education, as noted in the il-SOU, t3S10 t=: i11 stake recommendations and tonsure chant/°es (on the spccilic forms n itl? justification} io ins full Board of County Commissionzrs for rzeiztc and action. Thesz non-CiP changes t3'ould be updated in the upcoming \orzmber C:1PS sysicm rccalibrntion 'and indudeci in thz S.4PF01'AC: repot. 2. Defi»r71fn77^ ••1•or pllfpoSt'.5 qi ih!S ~IC!ItOra!tGC1IIl, 'building capacity" <<: ill bz dztzrntined b~~ reference to State suidelines and [itz School District ~uidelincs (cousistcnt «ith CIP School Construction Guidelittes`policies deacloped by the School District and thz Board of Count)' Coamtissioners} and t~'il] be dcterntinzd hya joint action of the School Board and the Orange Courtly Boars? of Cotnt;tissio!1ers. As used hcrcin the tens "buikiin, CapaCliy° refers to permanent buitdtn TS 1'IOI1112 CIa55r09r11S and OfI1C!' LCt7lpOral')' SitldC[ti ;!ccommodating classroom spaces arc nui nent!ancnt buildings and slay not i~z counted in dztzrmining the school districts buildln•_ e•~~pacity." 3. .Stmrdru•rf fnr: .Standard fnr: Chapel Hill Carrbm°n School District Orau~e County School District Tile ori_=loaf certited capacity for each of the schools =.ca; certified by the respccti~ o supcrinicndcnt and incorftorated in thz The original certified capacit}~ for e, dt o? the schools t;'as eertilietl by the resp€cticz supcrintcndcnt and incorporatzd in ihv' initialization of thz CAPS system (Ch2pc! Hil] initialization of the CAP5 system (Orargc Catrboro School District :1pri1 29= 20±?2 - County School District ;',pril ~0, 240' - Baszj Base} IScc ~lrac]?meat T B- 2} (~a11aCt!C Cil2[l sec lVC!"L' I1ladC CSCh year' k!> (Sec Aiiachmcnt i B. l } Cao2city changes were made zach Fear a, S'eL'?IJii / tOIiOV.'S: 2003: increase of 619 at Rashkis Elentettiar}' 200=1: Ao chanacs at Llemantar~-. ii~(iddie. or rii2h School levels. iO~IOR'S. 2003: \o ttet increase in capacity' ai Eletnenrtry ictcl. No changes au ;~iiddic School level. Increase of 1.000~~t C'etiar ?Zid~_=e Nish School,. ?004: \o net iucrrasc in capacity at Elementary° level, No changes at :Middle or Hieh School levels. ~. Analts•is ufEsistirrg Cnnditinrrs C.'hapcl !Till Carrboro School District The Schools Facilities 'Task Force developed a systcnt to calculate capacity. Atty chat+.vcs }'car to year n•ill Ete monhot'ed, retie+eed, and recorded by the SAPFOTAC nn approved fomts distributed io SAPFO partners and :lrruli'srs ufE.rrstirrg Cnrrdilinns Orange County° School District The- Schools Facilities "l ask Force developed a system m calcutatc capacity :lny changes Fear to year will he monitored, rovicr:cd, and rernrded b}'the SAPFOT.4C on approved f~xins distributed to SAi'FO partners and ceritied upon approval by the Board o? certified upon anpraval by the Board o#' Counn• Contntissioners each year. Connn f.'ummissioners each vcar.. 17-:e requested 2Q0-.j canxcity is notes on Ii?e .*equzsted 20f14-5 canzciro is notzd on ,~trzchmcnl l.B.G Attachment 1.13..3 Ytease note that the infortaatiou contained in This report relates to cxlstinti school certified capacities and is not related to Wert legislation from DPT (llepartment of Public ]astruction) affertiu„ elementary schools. Any capacity chaa~es related to DYl legislation +vill rcyuire reronyening of a School Facilities Task Force Type of group that can act as a dnint .~ ction Commitfcc, ~. Xeeunuuerrrlatiorr - Vo C'han~e at this time :titter input tram $APFO partners and comments tratt auihorize;d Task 1'orecs, the Xecarurrenrlatinn- \`o Citna„e at this time Aitcr input from SAfhQ parutcrs and comments t"rant autharired `Task FCIrCC6, the Board ofCounty f'otnntissiortcrs would render 3 Section 1 Boare o1 County Commissioners +vould rerder •a decision prior to a November ttpd te. a decision prior to si November upr.:~te. Atiacl'~me»t ?.3.1 °eport f+}c 4b OGGB Studsnf Capacityhy school atstrtct Perrnartant Strucwras Only, ko f~ahita U:its (IrieSuding ?rajah Under Cca-hv:;ion~ ~ O~ ... Square 516mhCt tnmtary Peet Capacity strip ~ r.7Ce ~ J,5?2 ScVi. 4~e ,asu. 6=r,~ 472 ' ' 554 as Eu~s--, 55,239 a49 555 ~rNrsed '" , 60,764 445 371 Gta't2m 53.541 5T0 537 ;~~ 83,40U 5^08 669 '~Ss"a= ?J..°r-0 609 572 evreli 52,6:9 598 676 Tofat CNCCS Jernentary 540,237 4.302 4, ;em 144,7- ' s7o 644 ~y7e 36221E ,1 732 ~ 1fZ9 103,A.98 ~`, 700 749 ;, 126,7n4 `~, r~ ~1 T~ICNCCs t~taare srt~t 479231 2,5;8 Square !.lercy5ar iantsry" Peat Cars. qty et:Ip m ~~ P-~'+c 7o,e12 593 ~56 .d '^.2,452 4$3 2=3 d trteeks 64,316 529 41 i y Brawn 74,018 575 ~9 xr...1gh 51,106 414 :~ Hcr i`~,16¢ 627 ?cT v2ys :5,232 600 ~~ Ta~tOCS r'~prserxtary 496,188 3,320 2,8°_' ~dlo L Sfarti 736,000 740 744 W. Stanford 707,620 726 739 T~.J ccs t,Slddte Schoat 243,6'20 1,466 i,w3 0.2t~ 213,509 1,512 1,7r TOia16C5 ttf@it School 2i 3,509 1,518 1,723 ~ Af[ i..eve~s °5.,317 6,804 6,1r~ i."bCG'~'R~ ~._.*?/Usr.~°Si"'"._..cgtl'aye::x.r~r_~~,~z,~rs„~r;shiprry~r°rsFstlo .' ~/~Ifr~ rt>a;g~ "d9 241,111 1.;1' R. i,a^."'!. SSSJ~st 253r:S 1,515 ,.',, 1,.375. i121 CY.CCS 6gh SctiDOl 540,096 3,035 2,955 P.zporE for ~~ Sxtderti Capacty by S~aai D!str{ct t .a . r ~, t,., a ~? ~ ,: ~„ :J ~r <) rtrcar,esst ~.tGittiL i Only, Na ?~ahtla Unite (LncludnL4 PraJscta Under Catt^ttyc'.Ion) _. 3gttare F,6a-n~r rnen~rj Fts2 Cap3dty shtp itl ruxe &0. ,~2 .e.~ ~S2 Ie.Si:S 6a^,952 472 %~=~ 35 HSs SS,2°3 549 5~ i'AMO."d 50,764 443 371 Gra.*~.^•s 85,541 570 5fi7 ?~Se 98,00;1 ~ 869 a~ 90,960 ~ 578 nva9 52,959 439 0?3 Tc~lCNCC9 ~entetctery/ S4D,2:#7 4902 4, is~'e y,~; 104,799 670 54: Dot.~s 436,221 732 Tirss 109,498 708 749 ]'•it 128,75< 732 524 Total cHCCs t,6idd3a 5..^9aa] 479281 2,360 2,5.18 =^siHO 2ki,ttl 1,520 4,550 „Ci-zrs! H@•1 2ad,985 4,513 ~,a5 Tntal CHCCS Hlgh.=~o1 b00,Ofl6 3.035 2,9on OCS Square k'a-n°~-r ~atnt+%'~N Feet Capacity snip ;, ) t lrCi~w,~',^4h 70,8t2 '3 /' ' 4s, {'f~2i: E~ ~,Y?~ 1,03 5.9snd CR`lesks x"4,34 S ~ J 441 Citady °rCM/tf\ ?4,015 075 Hc.sba-a.1~f1 81,108 =,?-1 5=3 ; New Hope ~ 100,184 ,62t 457u Pa*;1wa3'3 ~ ~ 8a22 S J 4a^7 r 1 Total QCS t `V / ' Jstnett ary 492.18tf 3,~ 2,33 ~dd(e 4% ;{ AL 5'a.~~^,c l.io'.00J. 740 7-51. C,W.~,~tntd 407,ce0`°~ T_5 729 chi acs,~~ ~ h4lddle School 249,0'0 1,456 4,533 H'r~h ' Otatiga ~~ 243,"^....9'' 1,518\ 4,723 Tot~l,OCS High Se;t^.o1 219,509 1,518 1 X723 Ta'xI rit Levels 95S,3I7 x804 6,152 ~~~'`j'~~f', ..0 ~:t;"y;hxt „v ~e+e ,-.:;., w"^f a~ rretrAn:a'•ur .^.tr:'^cfs~,t-5se I.S.V__ y~~~ ,.j„ fn I~ 4s...y,,-._f,~F~s1L_ .~.~'~~,-. cro ara~. r~;a6e> ~, \ttaei~ment L3. Ipa~c? a__i II It t1 Iv II II. I-li II it (i , ~ , „ „~ Cam,tronYa*I' 7U.812 598 >9S Aq" Czns~l 5?,aU2 A83 ~5~ 290 Et~zca? Che:lcs 6.316 5?9 ~?S ~~ t~ ~dyBx;;~ "a.Ulo 575 ."_ 3b, F:i11sL'`i:os~~ 53.3Ua 47A ~ - ~ 39. I~ .$ox '~ ]UU.lo3 621 0 : 36:~ rY :~~1> ~ 5:.23? 60 _,. _~ ~ t { SL. i 'i'otai 44S.1S5 3,520 3.829 ] ; `-9 f0 19 2;93" Spooiat Note: c ..;._...:5._il:. b¢scsur f: szra ____, _.-.:n: .,. ....^.:,:~,:rY.lreswp... u. ~_._5..o... to:~-..tm>: :.^,r::. ~ ...: ' . ;x: .. _nC d:itPOl 2rp;caui.:.tV. T_.. is I ~. ..':,tie- :'..... dc` ~~.. 7~ciC :.spas ilia Sri:. _.. _... c...:, o' :. =ZCd bi ; i l _.,t [ ]F ~ ~mr:W B vesimt of Ihrr toms tl•ct ii .....t -Y d+,CC. Justification: ;-,n increase in Hiusborough Elemen,ary capacity of 100 was completed prior to the `a^ o' `~= %~~G?-0~ school y-ar in accordarce ~:rih t.e CiP_ ~csaver due to conUnunq renova5o-^s vriinin ,Sie $ -o C ~ -+' 'u~i C20aG~ty CS 5 ~ 5tU~eG- 5__ 5 , ..~ de ...K kevad 4n(II Sl.e 2~~~^.~GtwO iC:'G Capacity Certification: _, .._._,.__ Dze 3~CC C^~. _a.e tdembership Certification: Superinta^d=_r. Date 6QGC t;hair Date 1~t1;lCIllI1CnC ~.~., (i)a~e' of ~) School District: OrxngcCrnmtySchools School Year. \orcmbcrlS,2003-1~ovembe; IY,21)(1 Justification: No change In capacity. Capacity Certification: Superintendent Date Membership Certification: Superinienden± Date BOCC Chair Date BOCC Chair Date s Spatial Note: FU::h:\uverFer lS,?60?bise year tl;e buarti a:cG~:rS:ne sepeintcadrnt-cetlilicJ ezFaeilies a<par, o;',he Seca~l FaciLtic: Tuk Fora m:irc z-.d iPJ} ?ixnnca mnd School RdPrcsrr,a:ive'I<c:=.aica~ AL•ns?rc Cemmittce Rrpon. Theme capaeitlu sill rennin eEiec;is: u-:il ch~.g:d by (I1 the S.hcoi CiP rr r21 en mnended teuion o;';trs G,.~:1 that iS a;tisr~ S; the 30iIC. ./Attachment T.B.. 1,Oa~Z .7 O .i~ 1,~ I LOC Spaelal Note: Fc~: L^t tio.<nber I5, ?UU2 haze y~:ar the twe:d ar[r' tnc sY:dmc ndennccrtifeJ capacities xv pxn nt'tte tichcol =aciti;i~~-' T2>k r,:ce rc': ie~~- a:;c 3_x)3 YfL.rrz and ti:hool Rcpresantativ<TCCha;czt Ac~is;:ry f'on•.mi;,cc Rrpea. These erpnci:ics will ron>oin t17c~ti~e until c^~ _za! by Q) to yh:wl C7Y ar {?) ar, xnmdcd cession of this form oho is arftrcc bt tn; D6C'C'. Justification: Completed construction of Cedar Ridge High School. This school opened in the fall of 2002 with a school capacity of 1,000 students. Capacity Certification: Superintendeni Date BOCC Chair Date Membership Certification: Superintendent Date f30CC Cheir Date 9 (P's~c; i G'i ~ i II 11 11 II II II: I1: Ii ; II II r u r ~~ r:i ~rl :~ r ; C anboro G0.832 ' '.:563 563 553 E phesus ' G6.9S2 472 ,i2 453 E s;aix~t< SG.299 Sag 549 53(1 G i:KFa.3 O.iG4 ' 445 435 400 r afiix`~.~..~ 6.541 57U 5 G ~ Sit . Y,ct~au~. vs.ooo 596 59G T t'~~ 94334 ' 619 G29 41 S :,a~ 90.980 609 609 ~ a:.~'_l`s 52.s9G 498 !. :48! ~ , 513 T otai 6; 4,498 ' -}.,921 3;921 0 0 ,x,692 5PCCial NOtC: P., .'... <.. ~.:.4ur. ;i„Gv: h.tic yc.:. th. v...:.. ..,_~ :.: ..'. ^:F:: a1:eJ uput.iUCS :S .L'IS C; tr~ _...u, r.~iE.i:.> Tssi Fx;r.r... v _ .1 :i?:". i l u.,., ....J S.hcnl Iigvrirnlali.c-c; Fri _. .,..v ,+ :'n u.:.__ k_pr.... Thcsc Npuc:;i:: ~aili rcasi- . ".,c, ; .::: us._:! by (7) c:: S:nwl C'li' or (:) ~~. 9r-:rdni vusiml ul' ILi> lilmr tnn ii :ril;ed'op u:: lio(~('. Justification: .~!! i. ~,.. :..._.. ... aOaQIV 0`OiG ei f~BSiIRiS E.., ^`.9':" .a5 CC^?0!BieC OilOf i0 the Shirt O. ire GC+?3•Q~ $C-^LG '. =....- aG'_C'Ca•'ICe 1Y!L'7 ilia CIP. . Capacity Certification: c.: _ __~r.. Date Membership Certification: S~ -....c .7~n. Date 5vv~ G^ar ~:~ _r.vt, ri v~al: _lC:~. ?n Aitacturellt Lt3 '. (page 2 of 3) School District: Chapel Hill-Carrhoro Cih- Schoois School Year. November 15, 201)3 -November 14.2004 11 II 11 it II Ili I1. II , 11 II , , w , , , , , ~ ~ Cul6zeth 704.798 :' 670 610 609 ~icDougle 136,:21 732 732 663 Phillips 109,498 ! 706 706 716 Smith 128.764 732 732 624 Total 479,281 ! 2,840 ' 2;$40 10 0 0 2:612 Spoeial Noto: Io: e.e Nn~embtt 15, 2tl02 base y'ca: tte beard aceap:cd .ht SL f+tlin0.'ntlBfl4:Yititd eapacnms us pst ut me ~cnwl ruutu~ t ~M1 Fe.:ec rcvr_a~and?~S plmncrs and School RCpmsenmli+'t7e:haiczl :\dvi>e-: Cu.-ritt:e Kern 'f here cmecitiec uill resnsir. rtt'r:[:~: enN .i.-s~ccd by 117 the Sc":kd CI' o: t'-i an em:ndrd vcniua of this form :hxt is certiiic; b: ae BQCC. Justification: Capacity Certification: Superintendent Date Membership Certification: Superintendent Date BQCC Chair Date 8OCC Chair Da`.e 11 Artacluncnt 1, ~-'. Q)a~c a oi3) School District: Chapel Hiil-Can'horp City School: SChoolYear: Npremberi5,2003-Novemhcrt-.,200!. I I I I 1 1 I ~ ~ ~ I t, I I I r l ' I I I 1 r r 1 4 I ^ 1 II 11 Chapeixiv 3a1,u1 l,s2o I 1,53o I. -1 i,~ss East Chapel Hill 3.5$,9$5 1,515 1,515 1,565 Total ' 500,096 3,035 ` 3,035 ?0 0 0 3;330 Speciai Note: Fcr the \ovember I5, 2602 base y~r'rc eavd acc~7xC !nc wpcrin:cnd~~r.a;lucu caprwcs as part oe :rc oer,,wi rxn:I,c ..., t~orce rc•.ir: sr:! 1653 Yienncrs znd School Rcpresenm:ive TahnicaL~dr,>err C'urlxit!ex Repo;l. 7hcca capacities will rcmWin eTec:i~:until t't:2nced hy(i 1 et.- tic'r,.,~i CiP n: (1) sn amended version o this I'nr iha: i;: aireC by :hc S~H'C.. Justification: Capacity Certification: Superintendent Date Membership Certification: Superintendent Date BOCC Ghair Date BOCO Chair Date 12 Attachment i.R,; (pa~c ! of-'.j Justification: An increase in Hillsborough Elementary capacity of 100 was completed pror to the star of the 2003-0~' school year in accordance with the CIP. Hovrever, due to continuing renovations vrithin the schcol. the aventual full capacity of S14 student seats will not be achieved until the 2005!2006 school year. The above numbers relied school capacity :vithout consideration of state class size reductions in grades K•3. C' pacify Certification: Suoednte~dent ~ C)ate Membership Certification: Supayn+ ndent J Date ->> ~~ -•/S~°C`j 1.3 Special Note: ' c: ^: Ko•:zmhzr l i, ?U17? b.+.4. }; tr ttx buan! c:epad u,e s yvrin;tnd;;a-cenif ed cs~acitics eF pntt Of if:e Schwl Facilities Task From n+iew ~ad 2G)S ?lanrr.. and School Reprc:zntative 1'czhnic;.7 :d•.^u•.r. Com:niur: RePcn ihcse can: cities F~ilt:r::rdr. elf;cn•:c vr;il <har~g;>J n. i !i 1.`.< S:*a=d CI' cr Q1 en amcndcd ~~Oniun uC phis fu-r rha: is ccri•';rd fy dx aOCC. Atiaclmtent GB.i tPaS~ ? of"'` ) School District: Orange Counrv St:honis School Year. \ovemher I i, 200'! - fiuvcntber 1=. 2tNr5 51, too, Special Note: Fcr ;he \cvembe. l S. ?002 Lnte ycrr the hoerd ec:'i.'sC Coe s.~.<.^.ntcnd:n:~certiRe;I r.,pncirirs :n V;ut of ti:e 5aha;l Frm>':c.. T.•se Fvc.<:e+ic.: Intl ?til ~ ?Linen a-.d Schuul ReVresenWlive Ttthnical nA: fr; r: Cnmm;::cc Red ea. 'I::^.csc up;!!•i Justification: An increase in Hillsborough Elamentzry capacity of tOD was completed prior to the star of one 2003-04 school year in accordance wifi the CIP. Howaver, due to continuing renovations v:ithin the echo^' `he even'ual full capacih/ of 514 student seals •:rill not be achieved until the 2005!2006 schocl year Leoisiative action taken In July 2004 reduced class size in grade 3 to 21 or fewer students. Previous leoisia`iva action had already reduced class size in grades K ~ 2 to 21 or fevter students. This red~c*'en in cl=ss size requirements for all grades K-3 reduces the number of students that can be le aih FS_ced •.rithin K-3 classrooms, offectiveiy reducing the number of K-3 seats available within all alem=n`an'schools The adjustment in capacity is a ratleciion of all of these actions. Capacity Certification: Sueeri jtendent - Date BOCC Chair Date Membership Certification: ~', 1 `~-~~. ~ l-l~-a4 Sup=Tihendsnt ~ Dale BOCC Chair Date !-". (pace 3 of4} Justification: No change In capacity. Capacity Certification: --~~' r~ Sucerietcnder» J Date Membership Ce~rtific~atio~in-:~~ Superir?';endent Date BOCC hair Da=_ BOCC~ air ~ ' Da.=_ !j Fyne KSiew a:;d .P}i 41anrn and tichnoi Rcprcanta;ire Tcchniyl Adriscr: Cc-r..inr_ Report. The<e eapacitiu will remain cfixrirc until cFzn_cd E+y f tJ ~hc 3cF.ac! C!? r. (?? an nrcndcd vcrias of this fena that is ce.~f d h. we 3000. Schooi District: C};sec Cemnty 5cn,o4s School Year. ~.~. ,r.;~:- ~?, 3i)p. - Snccr.:ce; i . _-•. Justification: ,.c chanas in capac ~. Capacity Certification: r •~- .. _ ~ r ;:p<-^.`e°.~.~. \ Date ..; Membership Certification: ~ r. '` ' i t __, . Date ?Ci 5Peelal Note: l=er ;~: tdorcmbcr I,S, 2002 byvr yav'ti:e 6r,:u~1 ..^._:cp;ed me ;u~anntcrn:nFaroum crpauues ~s }ran m me aara_i r:u nnc~ t_ r: r c -... _.. ..~. .:.:. _.. ., (:.,._- '.fim::cn :ni. enoel H<prcscr.rrti:,,luhn; jl,[_.i, :.. R...r. Tluir aepaclC .aill:er. ling _._r '~ _. CiP -: '~- xr~n Jscr.ioz orlu ... _^_ /Attachment L3.G lI)a~2 ! 0[ 4) (School District: Ch~pclHilLCUrrboruCil Scfaaols ~__• !School Year. November 15, Zt)04-November 14, 20Q5 V V,>. L SG,?9.9 G3,S41 96,000 9a .34 SpeCl81 Note: Fa the SnvccTcr I5, 2aV? hart ycar the 6:uu tcay:a; ;ne Superintndcn;-ceni6ed cnpec.;ie;:u Far. u! tF.: ScieJ! FY.iii;iC TssC !'cr::::io•~ndLa9.1io::nrs ardS.BOOt RepmRrocati'.c ice:.m:al :fie-ixp ~ua_:cCm Repx: Thete cnpacniet mll:c-ain a%:cur: ~a'_t c!:-~~ed pl' p ):%a 5e8aa: CIY a' (1) ai af-.1:'~ed tG:51Q11 Orlhii rvfnl i;lai ii cvsi:!:~ S) :h: a0:'l' Justirication: „n increase in capacity of 019 at Rashkls Elementary eras completed prior to the start o` the 2003-04 school year in accordance with the CIP, The above numbers reflect school capacity vrithout consideration of state etas size reductions in gradas K~3 Capacity Certification: Superintendent Date BQCC Cheir Date Membership Certification: Superintendent Date BOCC GhairGhair ~ Dzte (pale 2 0 ~ -: ) School District: Chapct Hill-Carrboro City Schools School Year: November 15, 2004-November 14, 2005 rr 1 1 I C : .. sii,}iorol4~NU1+rµ71 ? nl~;ilnN,ll I a 60,832 ~ 19 , ., ` ,1 t , I r,~69 563 r" i~t ~1 ~II ulll 2 472 I 9 r 1' '"53 ~ h 1 , ! 1 4 fE~ 1 3 r, ,~' 8 ' ~~+ '~'~'i 'thpN~i9"'t~li~'U'~iE4 III p , n,'5~0 hm~'V]~'~II~ I I Iri'h42~ E E phesus I ,' ea. s't c`s'~FIrlllstitl)Ji1~',I 4 66,952 56,2991j ~ ~ 7 "il'a~F'1154~ 549 1 ,olp~x, J ,t„~„ 52 ~ m l ' I, ~ , I. t a' :~t'C:_ tl I iu r , i I t. '473 ,r n 4t~ la,r, ~ ~ I G u _ . 1 4 lepWOOdlla'44 I " nrl Ix:.f Ix COI 50,764 I ~ ~ It ;1 , I ,445 445 ~ 'LI ~ I , I"I,IHOr i dl lllp l' t 471 1 1 n 1 5' 3 pll u ~ - t]'II I'aHl yiNf(Iri! ,,xl.,lr,5 I . ~ 1 1 1 ~ ~~`` Qy "I''ly~" ~ryl 'NI~GL JI . t F ..,', P Gr~hl ' I ~ I{ J 1 ~ ~ l ' y 63,541' 000 .579 570 ~ r H F 596 59 ' y~r1f~,14I 19 ~ 56 8 , ~ { J ' J~ 1 .q.p S I M .. e~, . r i ou~ Gt~ , r alL, I t `` .r,.l F . ; j 98, 1 94 234 I r ( ~3 , 11 1 I I rLil I'~ ~U'tt!~J,J 619 I , ,i pl l 1 ~ l ~ 41 1 ~~ "~ y t, ~ ~ N tl~l .S. ,111 ~{{ ~ ti~ ~ IS~I'~hPl III ~ ' r~a 4x ~I r" 'pii r I{ 1$:Ir ~A ;',1 ~II~I~ ,45 R S 9fitr7~6 1 y{l. 1. ~ i, r,l yl l o r n .x 980 _I 90 n ilrl li lr, Q , .! rl, . 609 6091~ ~ l~l I ~Ill l ~~ III~ Ilalu;ul~15f/ 11~ , 1: tl 3 rfi °ti. r ' ~ 1 Ltry Ilrtyyk . t 6ai5 3 1 roggsdli~7Jlav. oe}V,'~I1C"~UIt';~"~j 1 " , 52,896 {d{ ;., ~ F Nu i giMl~llit~"r!~Prp~B 498 r' fh I I' ~ J . a 'Ii 4~ 6~ li l C b Ir C~ 1 11, ,~t~,11~'1y~allatlt~li; l~ (1 IA~'1 ~r1s1r C t9 I .: 9~2''1;11i~c11tIS?Iny1. ~I I~I{ ~] li I ~t~ ~l 1 ' r I it y 1 J u ~t li J~i I'fiAIW e r l " MI f 1 al ~, , . I I .!rv ! ..}i FI 10 I'II p ll ~~'MI; .11 II~Jmts.: I LILT 1 ~,I ' , , t , IIrL.I~I': a n _L-, ; f (Y ~u e..611J 11~ It1. i I l ' ! ~ ,. . u.. . otalGll.b111r]lipa-ill,' G34,4981c .6h1e.1!IL14J302:illi,Jiilulry'J!4'921' 1':'. 19;65 9 .1.,:;0 0 .1~. 5 ~.t:. o' . 15_..:: : .- ..:ii~4;695 Special Note: For the November 15, 2002 base year the bond accepted the soperinRndenbcetunetl capaciliu u part or me School racun¢s IasK rrorce review and 2083 Plannus and Schonl Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report 'these capncitiu will amain effective until changed by (I) the School CB' or (?) ao amended vusloo of this form that is cerdGed by the BOCC Justification: An increase in capac'rry of 619 at Rashkis Elementary was completed prior to the start of the 2003-04 school year in accordance with the CIP. Legislative action taken in July, 2004 reduced class size in grade 3 to 21 or fewer students. Previous legislative action had already reduced class size in grades K - 2 to 21 or fewer students.. This reduction in class size requirements for all grades K•3 reduces the number of students that can be legally placed within K-3 classrooms, effectively reducing the number of K-3 seats available within all elementary schools. The adJustment in capacity is a reflection of all of these actions. Cap~a~c~ity Certification: Superintendent Date Mem~fber~sh~ii/p Certification: ~,d LGLG J/ ~.1~ ~2 IJ/'~ r Superintendent Date BOCC Chair Date BOGC Chair Date 1S !lt[achntent T i3.ti (Pact 3 of '} 2004 - r t + r l r + + + + N ~ C ulbiet~t)4~a~t1;~T'; 104,798 ,' 'r " va~IF~1;1~~0 II ~ 670i 6 IYI.~}+l7'U U ` 3 41 'M,'I'r;,ulk~~iljl4' ' It, 1 , t. ~J.I"(61, b9 r 6 9 tv ~ 136 221 i5 icDougte ~ , ~ ,Frv r e7,32 ~I non , , 732 ( f 1 ~ I 7 2 ~ t l + tr. I al r41 ,I: I.I ail h I A 1 a t ,l I ~ I4 . °t 68 ~~ f p ,, [ I, yyWp~ 1 1 ? , ; 109,498 EII y~ , !I ' F+ ir~706 70b I t„a(wl+(,17,06 ~ , ' ' , 9 s F ~~),~ ~t (t;~ I ~a, ~ 128,764 ~~'1 ~7 ~'"III'1}~1~732 732 f ~ 'r~~~ I ~ d ~~~tt~P>>','!1 ist ti C~ ~63 glll ;I I ~I tl t~ { 111 II L l}I'4t11{~,111~~~' r: 't l y ~ ' N I~{ ^,. ;r°II~ B9sIIu}Ili ' '~~yl 1 1 t T ~ I . I r~lll I I y 1 I it ~ ~ ° ~ ~ I IIF I I 'S I rl. Ir~PI hI Ill~~llr<w~l, tl6 ~. I ~ 1 SIG Y rll 11 S n~tJ ~ ~9i~I'~~' 1 d I I; ' CI t~ t 1 , I S +' ~ I IN Ih~ c. ~I• ~~l po II 1 111. t 1I 1 1 l ~ ~Ih~I 1 ~ ~ ~~~ ~i1~~4~~1IN1~~ I jr j , , rI: x , 11 ~. . h • , ,: t p Y 1 A''Iri I ,. il" I, IJ(tII~°r'~1I1 li tl d' i i p i ~ 1 ~ r . II ~I iJ II In N Y I ~I ~ p ~ )11 li , 1j ' IC i ~'l I 1 Itr'I~,r,I'i)' lll °ppI XtNI kt II~ ' I ( 'r t~ ~ ( e , t141 , ~i t.I~t{I~a Ie~l'}rrr I 1~1 J ~ ll ,+l ~ I r , , 1 l l 1 . ~: it hi(' 'v1~r ltl r 1 ~a R 1 I„ I i Zll lul~l~tj ~1 1 ~I ~ t I i I + f ~ 7111y~ II. 1 Klo ~ II h l tl a ~t l I I) I I ! Ll C ~ 1 ~1 + tlr.t~, f Y f ' 1 ill'71 U ~ 1 , I-! r ~ I I , w ii i.~ r I, n~,nr.: t~. 1 nl~N ~~,,, h , ~l ~ l ls ~ .., _ ` I ) it nl~; 261 i 479 7 1 Wp l17(2,S4G ~Y Wl inII;'4Nfu!'~;840 I 2 ZSA0 '~ r j ` ~~1't ih 11011~ it ~, tl lN I PaIPJia; 1'1' r,~, ~tI 111i~:I~~I,n191f10 Pe{r I a ry 1'1N~t1dl~mt~I4~11Fih tlai' 't, 5 IIIIIIV„16ki..6 0 ._ 1 , 1 ~ .. 1..s 1P.~171h I v ,. ~.. . Special Note: Fm the Novemher I5, 2002 base year the board accepted the superiolendent-cerubw capacwes as part o[ meacnuol racwu~a ++.,r. Force review and 2003 Planner avd School Represemvdve 7echniwl Advisory Committee Repor[ These capacides will remaiv eFfecdve uvGl changed by (q the Schvot CIP or (2) nv omended vcrsivn of dils form thot is cerdfied by the E000 Justification: No change fn capacity requested ~~_~~ Ca~paci~ty Certification: Superintendent Date Me m bershi p~fCertificatio n: uperlntendent Date BOCC ChalF Date BOCC Chalr Date 19 Attnclmrc:u! B!~ (page = 0€'11 School District: Chapel Hill-Cerrboro City Schools ISchooi Year. I November I5, 2004 -November 14, 2005 F „ t I F , , C ~ ~',"ili'nl~zo lszo ~ 241,111 n ~I+I , > i hbpplHrtl ""' " GG pp I' ~' ~ 2 Y~1,7~, likvlil 1~ 191r1t6~@9ytl~gnyll „ , 19ilidi:6uji'j8$ ) , „~~ 2'S,15 1,515 ~ "' vstl~hapel"Iial51 258,985 rh '' ~yL ,I, ~ a515 I at 't~'~+tIIIJ'~I'"~aUf p4 1'~'1)~im 1 ~~I~; IA , ~ ll r' 1, y, iU ~t~19'~l~1 ~ , ~ ~ , itil~p4JL pd~' 17'~~'~ I~71~~ li Illr'l'~III} , I P t 'TIP ~Ir N'~. '~ 1,,, 1I d del ~ ~ h {I(Ir'p~(~I,IIIIXI°IXI 4 , n h tl a4'lfl!rrj,Aly lit l{litl r I t l , . { ,. -r I~ r' '' I r' 1 a 14;'r,'~+~yl,~"Ik'i ~:~ Id'Cr'I?4~!. ~ ~l ,~ 'd t d~ ~ ~l~ 4 . la 141 ~ 4 I(7 ' ~ .' Id i~ ( ~li ~ f - l'Ik'~'~aIhI~IiTJF~a~) l,q ~I ~ ~~l r~ Il il G Il , a' '"u 1,' 1 ;: inl rl l (i ~Il it ~Il ' i ,,. ~., i. 111~0r i t~ tr ~ 1N, ~li~~1i l , l . n , i t ~ ~ . l I i 4 I~t~ ,lip ~h~ ~~~~ al,~~;lp~~~ii~~~';~~~u°y~r1 ;; ~~~~~~` ~ i a~t~~f~~I~J~I l'~e , i' h ~ 1 ,y' , ~ Gi~lt'~' 2 4~d WlII'~I?I~,I'[ ~ l 4 ~ , ~~glyfh;' ~ ~~ '~~ , 11 ~ 1,7t1~,~,, I t ., ~"~t7111~~JG~1 , ~ I 11'll },II ~Ii ~Illi~(~ ~j l I ~ ;5'~ 'pti ~'Ihlll l~~i'il ~i ~r F ii ~5i l'rvl l''~jl ~'l^' ~ ~ ~ ~ t", ~.., ,.siu~ 119 '.:^e'is91a Ilri !x9~ ~n~ ~ U 61(IiIi2U~ ,I;I~ul~t( ~i:!~ . , ... ..., ,; ; •, it ,..., wuv ri'~ ~n~,r, ml.7n. r' T,btallt,n'l,7„i ;p :. 500,096_,I~I~~,n,~j03$II;r,9.{_.5,03$ ,, i,,p :,.3~03$,,.t,~i;.i„6, .~ r^sil l'tt La+.mLtf,k.6~.U rii .it ,ra ~ 1w11,i~,,,a~nuui.l,,,,~l~ 5_~ . e,i.us.',`~A2~i Speetai Note: For titc Novembu I5, 200Z base year the boartl accepted Ihesuperivteadent-certified eapacides as part of the Scboot Facfuues'racx Force review and 2D03 Planners and School Represevt¢dve Technical Advisory Comtrillla Repod. 'These capacities will «main effective unfit chaogcd by (1) the Sebovl CH' or (2) an amended vecsivn of this form drat is eenified by the HOCC JustiFcation: No change in capacity requested Capacity Certif cation: _~ l2" rvY Superintendent Dafe Membership Certification: Superintendent Date BOCC ChaU Date BOCC Chair Date ? () Secxivn / C. Membership Date L Responsible Endq~ for 5«g~csriig Change - Citan~z can bz effectuated only b~ antcatdmznt ur 14ernorandum of Undzrstandine {~dOt.i j by all School .al'FG partners. cn u.e rcpvu. 2. Dc>finiriolr -The date at which student niemhership is calculated This date is up~atcu e3C11 \'C3r 2tld 3150 561'V25 as the hosts tOr prOlCCtlOnS alo»~ 1ViQ1 CJIC 1115iUY}` *rom previous years' "For purposes of this \demorandunt. the tcnu "school utembership" means the actual number of students attending school as of November t5 of cacti year. •Chz figure is dctcrniined ha, considering the number of sntdznr zltrolled (i.e. registered, re~ardlcss of whether a student is no lonezr anendinU school j and makin~~ adjustn?eats for withdrawals'. dropouts, deaths, retentions and orontotions. Students who are mercl}' absent from class on the date tncnti.~crship is dztznnined as a result oCsicivtcss or some other tcntporary reason are included in school mcntbership figures. Each year the Schou] Listrict shall trutsmit its school mzntbzrshin to the parties to this agrectnert tto later =.han nvz {~j school days alter Nuvcutber 1 Srrurdard fur: Chapel Hill C'arrburo School llistrict November l5 of each year Suurdm•d for: Orange County Schuul District November l5 of each year -1. d«aft•sis of l.victfng Colydiriolis This wiII be 3ttalyzed in the future }'tars ro dztenninz if it is an exemplary data this date nrnv sumc>ti«res occtu• rin a tt e?kelyd (crs tt dref itt 2003} cnnl is not rr tvprcol dote for nrenrbership census cnrd recordation. .4« earlier dnte such as the °40''' drn•",remhersTrip,uny he sttggesred yr ~unue }ettrr su darn cmr Ge anal}_ed em•lic=r to assiar bt school CIP «eeds assessnrelu. ~. Reconunendrrtinlr -ail chnlrge at this Kecnnu«e«dntiorr - a'o c/rnnae at rlris 111118 17111(: ~: .}~~CiIOA ~j II. ~,NNGAL LTPD:~'1'k. TO SCIiQOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC F.-1C`IT.,ITIES (~I21)1\A\CE S1~SI r;~I :~, Capital Tnvcstment Plan (CIP) Respousrble F.ntltp forSrrggestirrg Chrnr,e lhz updating of this section will be conducted by the Board of County Commissioners (BOCCI) aftzr review of the C1Y rzques!s from dtc School Districts. action rzgarciine CIP programs usually occurs during the I30CC' budget Public llearin~ proccss in tlta spring at'each }year. The dzl~eionment of rite Ca' consider the cottditiotts notzd in the S:IPFOI:AC report released in tflc samz CTP devcloputent year including LOS (iercl ar servicz}, capacity, and mentbzrship projl'MiC1t75. 1. Defrnirinu -The proccss and rzsultant program to determine school needs and provide funding for new school facilities through a variety of funding mechanisms. _. Surrrdarrlfor: Chapel Hill Carrboro School Distric[ lot .4pplieahle .Srvndutrl fvr: Ornn„c Cottnn' School Disu•ict but Applicable :lrrrrlhsis ofEt:istlrrg Corulitivrrs Tire \tOt.? outlines a system of implzntznting the S:1PPC), including issuinU CertiLcaics of Adequatz Public Schools {CAPS) to nz~.v dzvelopmcnt i!'capacity is available. The Requests for GAYS will he evaluated usiue thz most reczntly adopted Capital L•n'esanznt Plan. Thz plan includes' ?iutdittg for C"HC'C5 High School ~3 (20U~), funding reco~-ninon of CHCCS L•]cntentary School " 10 ('301~9j. and timding for (UGS Middle School =~ (3000). a nzw Capital Tm~estntent Pian is currently under dcvclopnteni for approval prior to .turc .0. 'UUS, Rcrcarunenrlutivu - Xot subject to Staff review ~~ .Secu67t 1! B. Student Projection 11'led)odoloby 1>'l.'.S1)O17.ti7171Y E7711(P,f01'.577~.F, PSrhtti C7rnagc-This section is reviewed and recon?n?ended b}' titC Platltlitl' Dtrce;tors, School Represet+.tatives, '1"echnical :advisory Committee bears to acietnnne unat ntontuersmp at eaen comou?w scnuui icvei teiculcuirly. ~~«-~-~< and High School} which take into catsideration historical mctnbcrship totals at a snccitc time (~'ovember 1~) in the school year.. These n?cthods are also known as `tnodeis'. :i.. Stundurrl for: Sta)rdnrd for: Cflapel Aill Carrboro School nish°ict Oranbc County School District Prescnily, ilte averase of five inOdCh ere bans used: nantcly 3, ~, and 10 year histor~;cohott survival methods, Uranse County Planning Department T.inear Rave and 'I'isehler Linear methods Attachment TT,B I describes includes a description of each model d. .Analrsls ofGxistirrg C'nnditiars Pcrionnance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model is in its prediction of"school level capacities at feast three Years in advance of capat;ity sltortialls so the. •antntal Capital Tnvestrnent Plan (C1P} upchztes can respond proactively with siting, desien. attd construction. Attachment 11..13.2 shots the pcribrntance of the models far the 200^-~ schooi :car from the prior Fear projection (i.e , only a one ~~~ar projection). After which, a sunvnary o; each model is provided. j" IZC'CUntl)lPllrlQtfnl7 - \n C'hanse Gan avow standard. 2_ Attaclmtcni I1.B.1 STUllENT ~lElY1LiERSiIIP PKO,IGCTIO\ lpa~~'- ot~l0) Sckool Distr~icc YcurrDate Tssucd YearlDate Based: Years Projected: A. Projection Trpe: 1. Trojection Description/ Characteristics: Orange County l 1i22.'U4 November 1=. 20ti4-2f7U5 2006-2015 Tischtcr Linear Formula Line Projection Z. Projection -~ormula: v-((c~b)"`xj'-h (r = Prolecred Pnpulu;ior:: c = NLcmricrl:Ulnua! Chm;.Ga: b = Rost Yrar;.r '~ R'o/rcrian Ycuray 3. Projection llistoricat Brow Assumptions: `%Elcmentary,: 4, Arera~c :annual C;roti•th Rate: ~. Attachrnents: 0 1. /0 ~%O:CflllS iS C!f tll4b:$t'f(rvlPC.r~N; r±: Y.a20.vt:.C 1t~~St 6. Trojection Performed: I3F': Brian Carson Date: 1 1i22Ci 7, Projection Recic~red: BY: Date: 3, Projection Certified: 9, Comments: constant is rci?ectcd in orojcctcd growth dale. and Hith taken fi'c»n SYE 2U~S and held 24 .'...~.~u..l.~... S.J.. STi."D1:~T 11F~tBI~KSHIP P12UJEC'TIU\ = , -~ School District: 1'car/D:ue Issued: 1 ear,`Date Based: Wean Projected: A~ Projection T~'pe: 1. I'rojrction Description( Characteristics: ?. Projection Fornntla: Al'\1 - (B1"i - r in!) _ ~1'il F.1'~i+: e4,`;L = E~ \:' Si. hzxrrr ~ ',j dr r. ,.'r: -'PrO. c = Ri r'OICUY i'S[ ..t..:. I:.uP, rilt(i(ai'. ` ,.+.1: Fib.:.)" 'ti r:c ~.. ?CIL)O; 1,'tYI Ornn_e C{~n:tt ~' 1?rQ9r200- Voaen7bct I ~. 2(tt)-•~2tlp. ?t)lG-~01 titter u'itlt {+aves of mend; huol le{ eis. 3. Projection :\ssttmptions: Increase to B1 I of ^ reaeccs dt_,_:r_~ m houstr._ pro atl,. IZciiccis ,;ido:a:: - -i;rs. .L..~verane :vnnual . 1.69'X. Gro+ethRate: :ySGR-t?OiiP\t-?Q0.:1yt110=1:i8S (.JSGR-.4ru;mtl.Srtrrler;tC;ror:7l,nirta: .~ 1'~H =Yr'o;erte,i'lrmh_rshiu, ,t/- ,!cma!;1lcurborclup/ 5. attachments: a) Protcctio:r.: ti adc ~vid't. Eleanentan, ~Lidcile.2ctd c?i~ta fa. Yrojertion Performed: Bv: Brian Ca; son ~ llate: L i~,,,ir{~ 7. Projection Re+~ie+sed: B)': llate: ~_ 3. Projection C:crtitied: ~~ ~, '3. Cmm~renis: F:"[c ... .. -.,{iV 37 '_f,{ rvj<c, n hS_^._ft __; ~~ - jil} STL~E\T ~IE.1Tf3ER5FfIP PROJEC7'IOti " _ School District: Oranec Count: I'earfDatc Issued: November lta, 2r)r~f YearlDaw t3ased: November 1 ~, 200,-201t> Years Projected: 2006-2011 \. Projection Type: 3 Year Cohort 1. Projection 3lateetm -al it)-_ a that a3r.:puics tee aceraoz adcarc~-*icnt ~ z e.° Description/ the prz~ ious i 0 yc::*s =er z2ei; nrzdc Ic~el and then use: r4c'r: ratz to c~'~uiam Characteristics: projected n:c:nbzr>r~iz b1 =~ hnoi ie~ ci.:\n assumed :~inda~aret: mzmbc ~ sh;p is based on birth records ancinr historical grow th ones. 3. Projection Formula: K,.=~~-,~''(K„r`0.0}l rr=(~GnIR,~~)I10 6=.4'..,(a) .-r, K-Ktr dtr,,.:r:rn r <....: r».::.. +: -G:'tn ~cl;,~wl rent. G-4ives Krair s ~ ,n.GZr: rig l0f172r than .S b::i.r c`,i.::-f'n~t i,¢5 '<'rt,ta "s n,cmhcrs7 p,t-, .a~:rc ^'ne°n: ruse. S-Yr.>;i'aeri n[2m~ e-r.;,n 3. Projection Assumptions: nes u t °;, atmual Gro~cth rate i~or the kindercarien ;rack levei. Assumes the satuc percentage ot'sutdents in each Grade Icvcl Graduate [o the next level each yeas -{. A~'Cr9$e Arinnal 1.32°l0 _:= annu.vt rstc u.a ~, scncc+ .._ 5-v .=rs. Grossth Rate: S. Attachments: 6. Projection performed: 13y: Scro>yXs, Benedict, Dean Datr. 1 V I6i200A 7. Projection Reviewed: 13v; Datr: 8, Projection Certified: 9. Comments: ?ri ....~, ~ Cs`<<eLa !L. i~ 1 5Ti5T)I~aT ~IF~IBLRSHIP PRU,IEC'"i'i0~ °' ``1~ School I)isrrict: On..nco C ouat~; I'earll)ate Issued: Vovcmhzr 1 G. 30u~ Yeari[)ate Based: l~bvcmbcr t ~. 209T-2005 „ Fears Projec[ed: 1000-'015 ~ •~ ,~~~ ~. Projection T'~ pe: 5 fear Cei- 1. Projection 'flat}:enntica} ium:ule -^at a~n•~~utz; the at'et::ge ^.ecancemcm r~ ;Deer llcseription/ the previous 10 czar; *or zuch gradz level anti thin uses cash rate to eaicula[e Characteristics: proizc[ed muntbcrsitip by school Izvzl..An assumed kindcn~rzn mambcrship is based on bir}t rc.ores anc/or historical ~_routh rata. ?. Projection Formula: /:=f.`t.~dc,x 'r; c`r; n > ..bin. , e". iron <e ool r; a+`, G G..:. r. ,race .:b('reJr;, GnLcr 1Lon riirdcr; artprti. ti=Przt-in:e ~rrrdc'.r nu•mi~arship, n`:1:~zraX~> aGtv1NC, n: rnr rata. u Po'ajcctcd nr,rn:bsrrGiP i. PfOjeC[IOn .~SSl:7*1 5 :t 1 `;., ' .:: ziC e LL' il:~ .lrndc ?° C^.. _..~ "... :lssump[ions: Asat t._ :.. , r...~ t+:.." :.._~ o~ .,„dcas in c2~~ .,:.c+: ? ~ ;.. , . to the nas€ iz-: ei c F. •-. cc.. 4.:we1'a°,2 Annn;tl 0.62°„ ir~~su en avcra;7e annual rote evar a!(sUroo+icwels aver run years. Growth Rate: ~. ~ttnchments: G. I'najeetion Yerlormed: B~': Scro~gs, Benzdtct. Dean I?ate: 1 Li b ?ub~ 7. Projection Reviewed: Bp: ~ Darr. 3. Projection Ccr[ifizd: 9. Comment.: ,^ .............~-a it. i3. i STI'1)L\T ltF.~113ERSHIY PRO.IEC1'1C)~ `^`~- ` ~} chonl Uiuricr Or:mie Cout;iti' 1`carlDate Issued: 1v'ovemuer 16,_ti0= ]~earrUate Based: Novcm[ber 1>. 2uU-t-?OU> fears Nrojected: ?pp(,_?i~?= _ _ A. Projection T}`pe: l+i fear C~7«i 1. Projection Mathematical ;~rn:uiz t=at co:upetcs the ;fvcraGe advanceine;a r:ac Deer Deseriptiomr the previous It) rears fo* ezcit er::dc level and Ihcn uses each rstc ro caicuiatc Char:tctcristies: prajcctcd n[embcr>hio ov schoill level. An a.+surncd indergartcn ntcna?erhi; in oaxd on birh records a=.:d!nr histeacal sroa th rues. 2. Projec[ion Formula: _ _ _ K--KL,+.t ~,u,_r. .: ~~,: rsi.i?, r C. '~: .;[nvc+? rrrrr G-~ rcr s.n::i a + ri~; rs i:ia fUlilG'I'7LOt! .ti llillP)'Ptll.27:J, ~'}'r't'1'ibl(.c ,~rRri b' J +7rC7gtiP.l'$itiJ. 17-'t ~~'r'+'+?.°~ =^•cIt'.Inc.'tr; ~'r); rate, 6=Pr~Ojetled n; rnther_$iu _. Projection Asst:mcs c _ro•.~ th r or the kittder~~ar:er~ _ ade t;3c: Lssumptions: :Assum._ _.., sa ~_ o.:":. -. a: sr~d:nts in ca n -...,c;~ ',.,.,. IU tits rig : 'J:ei e:S~C: ', 4.Averape.+.ttnual 0.6rJ'% rro[eTtisl„gravers;,oannualra;oova~a;rscroo;lecalscv.r!ens~:;rs. Cruw[8 Ratc: 5. Attachments: 6. Projection Performed: R~~: 5croes, Bcrodict. Dean Date: 1 i? 16-2O0-: i. Projection Revien~ed: Date: 8. Projection Certified: 9. Comm~cnts: "~ STl'DL'\T ~If;1113ER~H1P t'RO.IECl`t:0\ '=` `' ~ `'" School llistrict: Chi pc; Hil - Carr~e~ YcariDate Issocd: I3~G9r2U04 Year!Date Based: Nu~~ember 17. 30U-}-?t)II:i fears Projected: 3CuJ6-30i; ~. Projection T~pc: T'ss~hlcr i-irez: 1. Projection ~datl:cmatical tornlulz Description/ Strai;ht lint projection Characteristics: Z.I'rojertion Formula: }°}'-(Fc~n)"x)-'v-'v !•. `- l'ro1='crrri Popu;atierc c = N, i~trrrt~,'rr'.irvural Chrn: KC: b = x:+re S~ecr: .r = 3. Projection Ilistorir~': ,:e~.c? _ -zteaee lssintptions: "~~ E~ ~ t ^;, ~` ,~ ' :" . i2=;en 1.~Om Sl C '!1'-::~ ;°lu $. :'lnnual GI'Ot+-th Rate: 2,=F$°'o ~U2 n;. pier;, m:nart nu:rGr~ < <>. ;:rs ~. :~ttachments: a) Prc~Iectiens to ~.~ -- + ea?•i.nten•, A?rn~i .:.d h *~~t 6. Projection Performed: By: Brian Corson Date: ? ?-09i2pQ~ 7. Projection Reviewed: Bv: Date: 8, F'rojec[iun Ccrtitled: 9. Cnnunents: _-~... ~..~;:~ 11.3.1 tiTL~DE~"T ~IE~fBER~HIP PROJL•'C"IIO\ === `~• `"' ~clZOOI Ditrict: Chs~el Nij - Carrccrc fear"Date tssucd: 1?:'ti`I -0~!-', Ycar'DateIIased: ~lo~•cmUcrf._;+;=-2~i05 Years Projected: 2006-?015 A. Projection Tope: OCP Linear `.i'a~z 1. Projection \4atnemancr: - itl: 0crc, . ~ ~r~ztion altl0n~= _ ::tai _ Description," ReP.e .: 0:02- -- -~, •. ce; oC.;:emba>ilip. ~~ Charnctcristics: ?. Projection Formula: 13Y~i = (BSi - 15Qt)) = [YA1 fYM s':oSL == F,5"~G5L (K}Stf - Il:r.+r i~nr ?`~ nrrnth n;c+uhar:dap. B}'! - vaa~ student nrrr;Gtnr~l:in Grtren:ert Garr /~l i- `: }'`•7 - , r. ,.., ~ ~ni: i;~: ,r = Proj: tzar : em: 5(. ' ? v . qtr.( wruti~ r in „ar sc ...:cr n i :dfr. Ri ,1 ~ li.ti.. z :rut 3.Projoition f3a5:~car,rar: ~ x,.45 -2~~-~4~c. .-~ssunTptions: Increase in I31'I of 5 rei'eas '-eerez,e; in housin. gro~ctn. Reflects ouildout constraint,. -1. avcra~~e Annual I.SG °,~ ('ir0«'Th Rate: A3T~tZ i"Cif: i". .~; ,;'.i "-=."? (a.Sii.R a. '„~ .u. a; <': ~, ~4ria Cil ll]cnT5: e) ('rOi : GEtS 1 :_.:.:. i ~+ _:. i',;... ~...:~rC. \1:~..t~_ ~ C: a'i! ti. Projection Performed: 13~~: Brian Catson Date: E2;09i2004 ;. Projection Recie~ced: Sv: Date: S. Projection Certified: 9. Comments: S"I'C'llE~T ~IF1iBL•"KSHIP PROJL-'C'TIO\ `` ~ '~ i~'i School District: CHanel i3iii • Vii:-pro YearDate hsued: \or'cnrbrr Ili.?~'!`= 1`eariDatc Based: T47~'ember i 1. 2UU-"".-2b07 fear°s Projected: 2006-201> ~. Projection Tcpe: 3 Year Co'ttort 1. Projection \i,a,: ca; :~~ _._ ::::.: ~o ::~-.. _!: ..~tr..gc a * :-c' ~:':c _ ~ r.:, Description` [HC iJrei (?u> iil t _; .~ . ~i:. !.'.i ~77d Tt:cn t ~iS .~.": -•' CltaraMeristics: proie..e~ ~t:c,:.h_._._:: _ c:;~o~ .ce!..ut as.umcci :-der::z "::_c >:ain is based nn i,ir;h record; and: iir Historical growth r;acs. 2. Projection Pormuta: '' K„=K~_;r(k"-,*ii-it!! n'-(~Ci.'2„i)!10 6-g,.;tn) K'=i:i ~r,r.r, C..;i: <.'oo ar,C; C'•r.v-~ r _ _ m Pr - .i, Pro)eCUbO ASSLm105 8 I''i: C'-rirlti.?! °I'C>:ctit rate IOf ihC }flmdcC£at ie^ S°r2UC iC'': '. Assumptions: .Assumes the same perccntu+;e of students in each trade lei ei _raduate to the next le4'el each vcar. -7. Acera~c Annual 4 ° -- -.. ,:,, c. _ -...~ _. Grorsth Rate: ~. Attachments: G. Yro,jection Performed:. l;ti•~, Scro+:~s. Ben:dict, t7ran Datc: ! li 1G;2i)171 7. Projection Rerie«~ed: D:tte: 3. Projection Corti wed: Q. Gumrnents: :1 ...,._.....,.c. i.B . STUDE\T ~IE3IBEKSIiiP PROJEC'T10\ _` I'`'f School District-. Cii;ipd i-iilI - C" -~~?ro fear/Date Issued: Na+'unber IG. 30C~~ Yenr/Date Based: Auvcmbcr li. _'r10-{-2C10~ 1'~ears Projected: 3f.)OEi-?ii15 a. Projection 'R pe: 5 ~'zar Cai?c~:, 1. Projection V;nl?zmatie~i Com:uia -:._, co:npu[zs ?e aecrige adranecmen_ca:z , •rer Description/ the pnC'iow UJ pear; i~x each uadz level ;nui thin wcs caci? ra[z :o calcuia[z Cltaraeteristics: projeztzd membership bp• ~huol Iz+•zl. An assumed kinJaga[2zn rnemb~ashil is Uaszd u- birch c6eo-di and or historic<:! erowth r~[e:. '-. Projection Formula: - ' f:°Kunlor - rt_•r: n ,si*•R r virr,: scF,om'r~nr. G G l~ir .,r,:u ,. <,r:,,r r~i:ry /nrl;tr tirau Kd;rr>;r7rttd+U. ,=Pr~~riorrs ~rada s rnenrbrrslrih• a-:frenr,e edrm¢'rmrru rnlr~ L-Prnjecn•d rnan:6rrsGi~ .'~. PCOjeC[IOII .~SStI[?135 ~ ."%:. <. ~a,v[ cr,?.t .~? .~ e i0; i1:C lanC~L_<.i ;~.,i <_*Lw_ :~~_ _ i ASSnnipt10n5: :~55L'*-c u~l'n:: ~^_,~sut .. U. _:aQC[HS n: 2aln _, 8<iCi1 S _~-`,:a?v IO ttie n:S[ I.cel .sc[ .... ~}. :~1•CI'arC :~lllt tial 1.G5% r: iGiS rS ~n Lrer»~e annU07 n!n over ra!l,Ghnr.!tcveU'C~._t!vn gc__~••drs. Gru++th Rate: S. ~ttachmeuts: 6. Projection Performed: B~: Scroe~s. I;zti.ctci. Dezn Date: i? iG 30p_ 7. Projection Reviewed: Bt•: llate: S. Projection Certified: 9. Comments ., . -..::.:f:: ,::jai T~. i3,t STI'DE\Y CIE\IBERSIIIP PROJLC?IO\ !.o'b : os ;0i ~Chonl District. Cir.:o~i ::iii - Ca^::^oro Year;'Datc Issued: \i5~ember iG.'uG= fear}Uatc Based: Not"cntbcr l~, 20U=-?~60? Years Projected: 200(1-201:1 .A. Frojection T}~pe: 10 Year Cohon I. Projection ~t3itt...,. e.t ~" _9[ C~ ~ :Cr.e2 3dt 't.:.CS.. 2 ~i. 2s I)CSCCiI)UOni t0'. D' t,0u~ liJ } ai 2c~ _ :.u. !~: ! aad ti:2P L'LS ~wlti .J t,_!_.:!„:~ Characteristics oro~ea2u m;:;:hcss-~~ ny +'l;51g1 IC': Cl. ai] a5SUf11ed .tiliu2C°3fiC ~ 2? eTSP,tS is based on birth rrcorda andi~r i'r>torlcal ~rowih rates. ,._, 2. Projection Formula: K,, _ ~'."-., .. (,{~,~ : ~ D.OI } ~7 = (~ Cm %37. ~) ' I0 G = g m , (t:1 A-.~f~4tf<;$!'.t.fi_ ;1^. (:. ',r :f'I"_h.::!'.L tr - '>i:;A lD:utr, .,. r. .l ::_x, r,,, ~ -~_? s ,rc... ~. ~~~ +Pr-~..~ .. n.a - ~:r, o r 3. Projection Assumes a t'Sb annum 2rtts~tn rate for the kinder~artett ~rzde lez'cl_ :~ssnutptions: Assumes the same perccnta~,~e of sitidcnts in eac}t ±;nade Ics~cl Lraduate to the nest lctel escH scar. 4. Acera~~e :annual t - _ _ -.: _ t: ~ ~~.t ,_ _..,_~ ,_~ Gro«th Rate: ~..?,ttachmcnts: 6. Projection Performed: Hy: Scro~~;~s, F3enedict. Dean llate: l 1i16i20n4 7. Projcc[ioo Revictis~ed: Bp: Uate: S. Projection Certified: 9. Comments: Orange County School District School Membership 2004-2005 Schoo( Year (November 15, 2004} ii114i03 Chance ~e:•:een Ac:ua; '. ?rc~ec:~'` 55N504 ac:ua3 NOV 20_~ ... ', 2003.04 ,.....-- _ Zi•0- :=5 Ac:~a! 21i0t.05 . _._._ Nov 2~0- ..._._. -.. _ie.^.^,enary 2945 'x056 _ e ~ ._... _. _.. .. .-i ~+<i, - ~ • __ _.~_._ _ CCP ,_ - -- .. _m___ .... _ SC iJ __. . ~~3 AVG I 1627 H34 ~ '. _ . _..-- 2057 -.. +570 hdodeb ?ro`ed'~n is i _._ _ __ CCF', _` .gC, - SC! _. _ ,. ._ 3C T - AYCr' 2825 ' L32 i"ri5i'2G0~ Totals __ i _ I?lementaryi 29x5 ~ 301 -_. !.. I 6503 60'0'6 , I _ + 163 ~. ..._. t.tadnl' _.. __.. :-.~- ~ ....... . ..- _I __._. ._.. _. _ ., _.._. _._ CCF~•. _., ~ ... _._...._ _.. :CC -' __. _.. w . _~- :iC -_ '' AVG~_ '.. 665s L53 . , -c-ans High L means low ' includes hospital school 5 ..,.:._ -~'.nc~rP,SF.F-Oi11n5Zn0: CHCCe °~.^S ar- ~_.-- ~: Cx ,;_ ~~ A!;cdlc 1675 5593 -iS Orange County School District ~_' School Membership 2004-2005 School Year (November 15, 2004) `~ r ~~ Statistical Findings :° ~, iN PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVlAT/ONS ''' ~ 1Q-YEAR COHORT (1CIC) TISCHLER (T) ~ 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) ', ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) I ~ vcno nnunor r~r~ Elementary School Level Projections were mixed (high and low) and behveen a loss of 42 and a gain of 47 students over the actual November 15, 2004 membership, The average projection was 15 students lower than actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 71 members between November 14, 2003 and November 15, 2004. Middle School Level Two projections [Tischler and Orange County Planning (OOP)) ware high and three were low (1 OC, 5C, 3G). The average projection was 34 students higher than actual membership. The membership actually decreased by 78 members between November'14, 2003 and November 15, 2004. High School Level Four projections were low (behveen 1 and 101) and one (3C) +mas high, The average projection was 32 students low, • The membership actually increased by 170 members between November 14, 2003 and November 15, 2004. TOTAL • The total of all school level projections :were low and between 13 (OGP and 3C representing the lowest) and 71 (1 OC, representing the highest) students. The Tischler (T) projection was high at a gain of 97 students, The average projected was a 13 student decrease. The membership increased in total by 163 students, which is the sum of =71 at Elementary, -78 at Middle and +170 at High- NC Department of Public Instruction (NCDPI) projected 6,632, which is low (i e undercount) but within 34 students of the November 15, 2004 membership. u'~_.-... ,:rx9c=. Di_'SheriS:.~FO'd 1g5.ZJ04 CiCCS 3 CCS S~ .:c.".la^._r_: rp "^.c oa;cs2,o= a~ Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District School Membership 2004-2005 School Year {November 15, 2004) _ ._ 11!14103 ~ Actual 2003.04 Projected 200:-OS 11/15/04 Change behveen !~ Actual actual Nov 2003• 2004.05 Nov 2004 Elementary ~ 4692 '~ 4695 I +3 : Faode l' _.._ __ __ I >roiection is ._ T __~ ~ -' 0004 ~ H369 i OCP ~~'~. 10C ,___ _ c~0 _..-__ ~ 8r5 _._ H210 HiBi ...-- ' SC ~~ 4899 H2O4 I ' 3C _..... I i' 4608 _ _: H 113 AVG ; 4910 _ N215 I ._.._ ~ I Y115?200 ! IG1lddle___-_ 2872 I ~_ •62 .. ___.~ 2560 .._. .._...__-~ ' A~10de1 I j .~._.__ Projection is '! ' ~' T I ,i 2619 _~ H259 I OCP ' ':~ 2774 ~ . _ H210 ....... __ _. - 10C ! 2596 I . - H38 5C I ~ 2302 : H42 _. ,.... 3C ___ I ~ 2585 ._ ____.__ H25 AVG ~ 26i5 i _ H115 I ~ I ~ 11~15~2004 High_ 3330 ~ ~ . _ 3422 ~92 y _ __ ~ ~ _ _.._ ( ..__ ____ hAodcl ~ ! Profecfonis _ Tj OCP~ _ , 'i _ 359; ~ o>~- H172 . - -- -'. r 148 10C ~ 5C 3C ~ ~_ ~ ~ f 3015 i 30-1 '+'62 H93 ---- H119 __i H1Q0 AVG! i ''. 3497 I H75 ~ ..._... i . Totals I. ~ ii?15r200d I Elementary 4692 ~ ~ 4095 ~~- Adiddle 2612 ~ I _ 2560 ~ ' '_ High, 3330 ~ ~' ,... ~ _ 3422 '' _ ___ _., ,10634 . ~ 10677 ~ +43 • ._ ~ . ,.. _ i i Model I Pro cation Is i T I 1 I 11477 H600 I .~~^ OCP I ~: 10c49 H272 ! ' ',~._...... 10C 5C :_ 1 ~ 2 H30a _ 3C ,I 10 55 ' H276 AVG ~ I 11082 H405 J ~~ H means High t, means lov: excludes hospita; schcal .. ,._.~...,_. __.. _;: a'Oe-~S%.+`•G~t 1-.5-20a4 CF CS n CCS Sc:rc: S'amtarsm; cec Li CS ~S c r ~., =~ .r, w IJ 3G Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District ~' ?' School Membership 2004-2005 School Year (November 15, 2004) ~% L O ,j Statistical Findings ~ = _ _._ _ __ PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `'' -_. _... _ 10-YEAR COHORT {1GC) T ISCHLER (T) ~ YEAR COHORT {5C} ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OOP} 13-YEAR COHORT {3C) Elementary School Level • All projections were high and between 113 and 369 students over the actual November 15, 2004 enrollment.. + The membership actually increased by 3 members behveen November 14, 2003 and November 15, 2004. Middle School Level • All projections were high and behveen 25 and 259 students over the actual November 15, 2004 enrollment. • The membership actually decreased by 52 members betvreen November i4, 2003 and November 15, 2004. High School Level • Four projections were high and between 93 and 172 and one {OCP) was lo~.v The average projection Gvas 75 students high. • The total membership actually increased by 92 members behveen November i-., 2003 and November 15, 2004, TOTAL • The total of all school level projections were high and between 272 (OOP representing the lowest) and 800 (T representing the highest) students. Tha average projected was a 405 student increase. • The membership increased in total by 43 students, which is the sum of +3 at Elementary, -52 at Middle, and +92 at High. NC Department of Public Instruction (NCUPI) projected 10,933 (an increase of 299), which is high (i e. overcount} but vrithin 256 students of the actual November 15, 2004 membership. _~~:.~r,;:^.a:rar:a Oh~Sne~riu`'a,~F0U 7-76~200A CHCC3 2 CCS' Ethca f•=~~c=az~p.ecr_ OZ{'-2i9i 37 ~EC.'i~i~t fi C. Student Projectit)ns llespurtcible F.urilrforSa;;~~e.+rirr; Clrrnr,e- I~he tl~~uting oPthis section ',rill v CnndUCii'0 hV 111 1'i?.11n111~~ [)irCClO1' SCtioOl J•Z al)1'eSeiliailt'L'S, reC11111Ca1 :~dt'I501C t.'ommittee (S:~I'FOTf\C') ;Ind rcfcrrau to ;hc BC)C(' for annual sport cettificatiuas. PiD'L'L =a:L v: tll 1TC 4115 it~bltc; e: A7 ~ ~::-) P..! ;~?:~_ .OT C:. etC0.' 811(t V~.T.ID.r't.- e~.~ , ,i: 3O~ (. UEf11Iti011 - Tllc TeSUli dt the :.•.: ^_: l?i i... .: SLI1QCiit piOi CCilO^ modeis ?. D'-.'~:`.^.i:Q ht' Iil rC2T IIUiiK'rlt'a1 II7^cnil)ei5ltip pCOieCt70!?5 U~ sCLt)Ol ia'cl (L1Cn72n1ai". ~:!iidle. _.i... High} t"or eadt School district (Ch'~t?el iIiliCatrhoro School i>isu'ict . nd C7ran<ze Count} School District) . Strnrdarrl jor: Sraudurd, far: Chapel Mill Carrhoro SeLool Ditrict .._ ..::c=_.: ~, _. _~c discussea :t: 5._t=.e.. !:.., (11E ~?. :~. t?.eClton ~lL'IilOi~'7i~g;';1 See .attachment 11.C.6 •tnaltsis of E.~•isrilrg COI7dlr10115 Oranac Cuunt~' School llistrict {TatCelli ! iOtC0116;) ~+Ctt7r' .t :i _: 1 Sze .Attaehrnent ILC.~ ?i: member;hip G~?ures alld ptfl'::31::?_C ':'Ot`: t''1 U!? tF:i: `lili?l"111t1Citlti a'110tC CIJIlif~ c:'c7 ,,•i ,: ?' cOth St5teilL. ~ a ~.. r'' ^ ..t;:: -~' ')Ci•acc.n [l.. S 1 :... :.. ..s~ :: ~:_... ~':ar-br-year , ~:... _.._ .... r? ~_ :.. .:.:,.:.Ld : nle :.._ ~ ... _, :... *;~,.~ .~.u LOS.. 1llC ~CO~ ,:. i:5 :. .. ~. _._u'_;;:~Cc:77LI'.I~Oiu Fri .u.`niJ'Sh;pS.. Tcn gears oi~siauara ili'~Ltl ^~'S111p \'i%', r2. y1T01ec1cd IheTeciiCC, Please Hots that the infornlatinn contained itt :Lis retloti relates to cxisthl~ school certified :.:parities and is not related iu Harr leg+si'ati«r: ro!r. APT (Department of Public l^_.._~.;~~LI.,{l.C'tttt°_CF..:.lca._ ..~_.__ -. '?-~i,L,?6r?.eSrG..:.....tJI)Pi ••° ~ .:c Q.llw i L.J t. l ~ " -~ ~' 135}. 1't il. t ~ci..!n ti Chapel Hill Carrboro 5chnol District Elcnunutr~ Ti12 precious year (2f~i1'i) projection for \oc2mber 20ti-i ut this level leas overestimated'uy31 i sucicras The acural gro+eth ryas -3. CA'cr the precious three years, this let•el ryas ir::dil•; ~:._, o:Onl ;!,1 t,J %~lO ldl Sc. c< _:.:"c ~,tt,at ~1 C.~~ted ;: h1S[fJtlCal blS. t3 t~a~u t ~ _ ;__ L: t.c.;'1, h1L sC $_ C~PQUi2Q pV Ll?C CC°ay15 ^I :.::.::.: ..~~. .::OCLI 1 ~, VCar IO prodtlC....» ..:.c .t>. ,..~..... ..» JC:.oe; ~lU to COSI'!C 't)tt fi•-e'..": '-.~(.'?_4 .-. f;ott'ct ~Ji. Ille T2lara;l': S:A: _... ' ,._ i :::0't7 tt'25 Siai151iC[tf l\" 1i11D1~..t:!.: _. :~ s .. i::.....u :UC.3St 2iiC l4as 1112(:: il1Or2 r »1...A ~'~' c i01+.' C11R7;1n1ciii CtiiTCltt t'C2r O~Onlt' "J_ T~2 Here iOll t''!C'2r }]75101'IC:11 at'l"t.'.L_'C of h2. !? Si116L':•t5 cersus an ccclctatin~ S7.G7 average, note ponends the needs for Elementary School X10 in 201')9-1 C!. diddle T _ .. . ..,_ y:: :C - _ _r f 2t~r).;) nrvjeL _]a::OT ~'.~ .....,_. _' e~::.^.,s !et'c! LL':,~ oc ~: _:.:,1 t ..,..._ •, i s._L~-.;c : :.. >:..II311 :::,cnc isp L.: - ,. -~~ .,_. `t. ~ r .. ~ c )..S . :Ca'S. .. c _. . ». ~.a.cs ~ _ p„cipil6tuh Goat .l : 1a r~ :o ?. sc :.1c j' u'as consistent Leith Ll; ..~]_;. ..... iCCFI(1 7~0tc2\'c;t, CeftHltl IItOd CIS uld rClleCt ihC prior 1'ea]''S gfOttl}t :1t iliC C1CnlCnlaTV SC1100! 1<cel aS they pro~zress into the middle school cohorts, Accordinel~~, the prcviousl~• noted element•arc ti,0At'1t1 ni3in CL+l'dted llliU COitUP.l!ed »L'CO tI't}7 2t IhB Itt!U+IC SC}tp011C1'Cl. ~iOR'~ R: 1t}l Ihi ~O~ci?7C~Cr ~ '_ci~ ..:.:.uC!C SChOOt CF:rO,[... _ac .... ° .:: _: .~. 'i"lizrv SCf1U01 t~: eE. ~.:1::J ' :,.b:"C CCl ,:::rtZtit c. t..9 2.°.~ ~... _'. ~ ~ -.. :._.~ _~. ,, o s PTO t. iL1 :~i : ~~ a:: . '„v ~.. Lr.:S P.i OiCCIIG.-i P». h.._.:.-:. '. `~. ~ ~C•_~1 ~~ ...:: . .. .. _. .. ._~_ .i.~:i rV,. .•1 iO 112 f_...:: ... _.- 1-. high School Tl.e Prot^ous }'ear (3q0;) projection fh: Ao ' ',:he; 20Q» for this level n~c1S overes!im t d by?i n »..: ^,iS c ~:. ,........: r.1 ~11:C1t,t:E:.r.:..~~:. E.: _~„ ~:._i'i ~.: L'L: .*.O: 35 ill:?tl 3J !'° :.1et ~l<:.._:Y. -=.. 1. l't1115 t..... 5 ..... :. .., -__ ... :, :::: .:.:. .::.:.: ...ld Ll:. u:~.a:..1+ :.( .. _..v.. :. :. :...:lL' :RH CdJC IP. all :l ii el. ..t...: ' _._.. i~) Secri;,;; Ii .. .-: Cv: .:w ~: _ _:~.: 1.. :. L'e i~ .... .. ~: '- _ :(" _.T~: ~i t t. ~.~ ryt~ .l.av'. .'. ,...S . _... ,..._... ~'?'O':',CiL31;; ...i .~,.c ..... ... ... __.._ t.:.i.e ,lCrtC ti _ 0 _:Ot':. ...._ _._ ._ .... ........,iuel;, schooi f"c._ ta_._.~~_..::_.... _ _..::uat ulcrL __ ~_:.r~ _x.. .. ,~ _ w..'.:_ :; 7J:C4:1CiEd ill ihC lil`Cl SC 7 AY2T;. '::.; iI1=:. ~: i001=.` opals il} ~UI); ~;j, 1.'7 :rC'.:CS c'ep2ciry read; aro noied in the 1 tl-year projection ?lrnizon. Orange County School District Elementan• ._,,.~ :,>._, ,.. f3~IlE:)nroject~.on:"~:\,t_.-:,zr_ .) ...tni:.;.rzfo:asa.:e..;_.._~..~:^.'. _ _. -._~ ~ ±i sron•ttt q`a_ '- O' ,:.. , `. ,.: .~,:.. -:aari, tilts Inc, i h2. . ~..~_~ _. ._ .t.....r ~ " _..atic crsoIttent Lviticil chan~~cd irnitl -i ~_ :o -~ to -=-'. ;:udc¢ns a ycuc "hhis created Iltston Cai b?;C Oi Slc'~ffiIt'e f'_YOtl'ili Vch1Ci1 R'8$ Capillrec? Ot' t}ie l'ar10lIS I1llltitdltt:'.E3C21 iIlOdl'1S 1_ t year to produce realistic and moderate projection; that recce less than a clossroom c;:parity ?ot+- hl the Oran~c County school system, hi;tonic ~nrn th is more closely related to devclonment than in .ire Chanel Eii!1-Carrboru School Disiret.'.~L-ich ilas :, sizzaolz number oCnew tanlilizs i:. c..t;i• : ?..d 110LLSilh SklC h. ! :::10 -. ~.'':.iti ~.,:~nt ~Cil•.`it~';110711d O'` ;tit~1::J:~U O. i ..... ,~ _: t7, t0 Si~_deP.: or0',L :i. ~`: .-...,,. ,_ ... ~ p i:..,i0riC111C 't7a5..t1 T:.?L<..,..:.... ~tiddlc The ;lrevious 'car (20i1,) projection for' \occlnbcr 200: tt"or this Icvel teas ot'crestimated b}' students. 'The neural membership decreased b} "3 Oyer dle precious three years, the vrot~ah t: E; 1tlcrdaSin trL~llt ?3 CO il)^1 t0 ~{), 50 the _jj ;ca5 InCOtliiS[eni A'Ith ih0 tit2~l uhi-it11C iC2n~. I-?~.,.:.., cer.eit/ n:odzl; did reflect the .. ~~ ._ '_ _-t~.t tii 4,..13;) ut the zlentcnrarv scro~ t :ece? in _. J_ _t " tl : "i pr0 `r` iS nit0 t` l ..::GL . :?:: V':~Oi':i. .=..COrdttl'r.2,l t' t 7. pc ~~ ;l :. iu,~ . ..::. lal,~al.'t. ..Av ~~',t' Ctl Iltlt117 Ct. ~. t. t ,..:::isi_ :J'r. e. :r. •,L a:_ tae fit: o,: '; .....~~:z s. it„ol cnrc+i=:..~ ,_. -... .:. ~ ..; :.::. ~.:.LlelL..~ .~.e>,: ,. ... ,u:, ._ :: i. ~~i Pao .arC CO7 r' : +. ;'-: t..:.., ,_ _ e Pi ~ _ :. J.t iIt'.C-Glli; pfUlt.Ctlt1 .cC37 ';.3:.: ~ iLi. ; :,".1 fen yedr;. '1(lhM1~1 ~rt~ t.:: ;~ +i©=t', -itl ~c°rfi~"~[ !i p. _ a t ~' ...;...tLh_ Hi„h School ! he prelious )scar (2rJ03) projeclirnis tier \oreniher ?OU-i for this level uuderestimatrd by 32 students, The actual mzmbership increaszd b}' -i ~0. Ch zr thz previous three years, gro`~rth a as <neecrate at a relatively constant S 1. %~ anc :9 membership incrzase, so the predutzo i 3~ `,~' s erzdibic. E': er: ~ ~au~h -'~rcar ftsstunc ~~-~~`.<< at ti:e h ~ i1 sc'rooi ?ccel is motizrare tnd a _.at~Cie, tta i]'C ~=0i1'C'1H)i1S ':.iQ?'J ..J:::. .-;.'. ._.,._~. t}a f}1e SiO~~'Irl_ 0 ri0:'•.v ~: ui: ...... 3:cu Snlddi: 9Ci10C)i i~~.l_ f .:c. _.1, ~.. .... '. _, a?ni3a} inC rc etc tom; 2.'J~.~ ti....l ~-$ ~~ "__4.e.. ~_ ." ''CtiiCte{i iii ine is"\i iC.^. `.-_.: ~. 11 [~(~n/11 /11 C~77f1[llfOl! - (.:CSC ,c(ettSRC9 as 77Utelf nl ~ :1b0~`l :i } ~, ~~ v m a C_ 'J Attacluu~nt TT.C ': t?~ta?) 'o, V O - G "c _ a 3 - _ c 0 4 - a o -_ N ~ cc_ c c ,. T o c h ~, v U t c C G C - Ci K N O ~ O ~ E v = E ~ ~ E Z 3 c c n .~ `-. J ~' c o 2~ S ~ ' __ j ~ G h~ U'S :1~ U U .+ w <`~ c U .~. ~O i9 _. a U U ~ L' Q S h u H V O~y Sop C ~ U Eo~+ bn3 Vox ~'>U :83 r u ~"U L~` ~ o 0 ~ ~ ~+ uV o c ~~% c~ 4' i^~ V~Ia cjtJ O " n :go o ~~~ o .- GeV w~ ~ ~'i 03 D ~ ~ ~ ~~ O 3 N S y~yS~ v V A7 3a ~, oN ~+ o a 2 U e O Atta~lunent R C2 ('2U0?) e 0 J C ,G M 8 E s ~ a Ge 4 G J C~ ~ V 1 O GGGa ~ G LL g c' - , o ~ C 3 x G ~ 8 ~ y a - <_ L C O V O o 0 °e :~ __ U U e Li G 8 s o e 0 ~ pup 6 1. N C b O a° ~ o=~ o ~ ~w~ e °__" o vi 9 `o j =oS c O U c Tj'j ~. e C $ ~ O C _ o ~s _ $~~_ Ey ~S y+ U 4 V ~ K U: Sj N Y 0 n m N ~N N M r. U C 0 u a v N C O V D G c~ 3 N N U O N 7 Y 0 n a 0 G N M V: r. U O v 9 0 pf O V 0 S 0 N N U O (?inF3; 3 s~ n4. VW d~ ~C ~~< iii t ¢L~ CX ... Y Mh 4` • L .+ 3-% Foy ;._ ~- r F ~' gG ~~c c~!'. S g :~ R~=' .a Y~a 6E` :-_ G' F P E l 14 es= ~~ ~~ (~(jQ 1 s ~N <V :S ~£ N~ 2~ s`a `s k ~z~ 5~~ G~. v= SS_ _Y~ `5 iL 3"v 3"~ s ~E~E ~~ `. ~. $~- g €i' 8~~ $ S? :a~ =$> ;y _~: e' Y- e 5 c}e ~~( u Ltt _. 4 _E.2 rq ~ ~~ , 1 Xd 1 i x { ~ ; - ~ ~ - ~ Y f ~ i Y is ~ ~ {.2, ' .. c. _ 7 1 ~I ~ t ~ I~v~~ ~ ~ ~~4 ~ ~ ~ ` °,~ s _ ~3f 4 _ >~ Y ~ ~ 44 Y ' = wS ! i ~ $, -~ g M g „r~~ ~ l 4 ° t f s +3 ;,7° ^i ~,~.~ 4 [ OI' Y Y i ' ' c. " - ~ 3 x~ i ' z t ~ ~ r 1 l z - ~ ~t o ~ I ~ f 9 { 7 ' y ~ - 1 l , $~ ~ ~ 44 e 7 i ~ x 9 ~ ~ e 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ d q i'J A ~ ~ ' t t~ f ' ~ F ~ ~ >> ~ j~ ~ ,~ ~ ~ a K ~ I } ~, Y 3 _ I ~ 4 v. S '~ 7 ~ ., ~ I ~ - I 3 ~ ~ ~ "~ ' i V_' F S i i ~ ~~~~y~ l 1~ ~ ~g z :r 4 1 = r .I j'i;,ir) r :~ q a = i j i ~ I, -x j~ i 1 ! 1 1 ~ J ! t 1 ~ ~ ' 1 ~ 1 C i~ ' ~ h Pi 1 1 1 ~ 1 ~ a 5 ~ ' a n ~~ " a ~ ~ m 4 4 ~ _ $ r . -~~~ ~ ~ z ~-~ - . 0 a ~ ~ ,~ i ~ - : I it s ~ ~c ~ „ ~ ~ ~ I N x ~~ O ~ 8# ® ~ ~ T f tl x ~ 3 # ~ P n c ~ ~ 1,S $ . ~ Y_. C~ - --0 l E ~ ~ I{ ~ 1 Si d '~ a ~ III { 1 ~ 4 ~ ~ ' J yC 'o IR ~ : . a „ • . i I ~ ~ i f i 3 ~. ' , ~ f i ~ ~ p _ ~) !3 ~~ y } ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~o , i [ f y 5 ~ t [! i~ < JY € '^ r LZ 3i F , y~ S ~m~~ i . u i ~ F v ~ ai (o v i~ 1 :~. ~ 3 ~ t! ^ r > o E ~~ ~ ~ ~ «8 > r la ~_ -:6 4= Q 1 J ~. ~ 3 u~ ~ r^ 3 i . ~' U N K , , ul of ° `m ~'~'. i i c s ~° ~ Isk~ _ . A Y Y +~ N I ~... 1 O ~ ~ ~ ~ w ~ ` ? . ~ c e;; 'f , t ~ i ~o:o r. _ v c~ ~~ tl ' J ~w ~ F N o ~~~a ~ i_Ir .~rv A e ~R i{ ~ Y tl Y ! Y ~ I ~ ~~.:. ] ~ at k w r ~- ` q ~ i ~ _ ¢ * a ; ~ _ ~ f c.~ Q C 1 v a ~'i Y N ~ N R O 0 ri v O i ~~ = - x " y ; Y tl v P~ 1 D C }}} I ~ ~ n i' L G Y { ~ Yt ` it I ~ ~".. t i ~ p~ ~p ~ €~: ~6..I ~. ~ r . ~_ . ~, ~ f, - I . 3 °~ ~~` ~ ~ ~ ~~9 i C N ~ ~ ` 8 t [ . ' , ~ a -: ~ y z < ~ .c , tf t v Y ° v a o o ~ ' E ~ ~ ~ rL 4 - a ' ~ ~ 'E f ?z % ie I_ o ... Y z, ~ d At:__._........ t2r± ~_~ ~ N Igo _ I r~ V A Ii I _ I ~~ EM ~ t ~ . f I . _ r a~r~ .o .^. = n ~ .1 h N (Y~ o ut ~ S i r ~ ~ F ~ ~ < O u J i~ M ~ ~ O ' r a f i +, ~.r ~'t f~ 4 ~- y ~ 1 i N x ~ min ~ ~ } ~ y s q ij 1 $ q C Y n -+ A ( ~ ~ t ~» '. n ~ ~ ~ ~ I _ ~ 4 f " y t ~ .i '° ' °~ 8 j r tt ~ 4 ., , '. ~ ~~ s ~ ^j~i 1 = { ~ f ~ ti x ~ ' 3E ' M1 $ ~ . ~ c. ' y °o N ~ ~~ ~ ~ e ry ~ ~ „ y ~ N h ! 3 A } S{ ` G § t i I ~ ~ ~ C ~ ~~ i l l ; ~ i 4 s i ~ 8~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ' }x . ~ ; ~ >~ x z ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a ~ 0 N ~ N~ f ~ 33 O 3 ° U '"~ Y ~ ~ ~ UL s ~ i ~ ~ ~ m~y~ g a,, c~ O _~ C _ 5 =-z ~ b ~~o °-Y. 2Pe _', c ~ a e O _ OV J ~' v p F ~~.: bJ G c S _ ~ .. D. Student Growth Rate Responsible Lorin' jor Sugge;tin; Change - 7 ;te .tcoarng of this ,cello ~ :jai e_ c+?r:dueied ov th2 Planning Directors. Schoa Represert:ativ'es. Tcc}micaI 3uci;e Committee (SAYFOTAC:) each }'car and rcetred to the fiOCC for annual r2por ccrti tication. Proi2CF'iOns will h2 disiribut2d to S.~.r ~<) TMa:-;:crs Eor rep icn' and contmznts io t^: BflCC prior to ccnincation. Dcfrritiorr -The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections resuhing iron the average ol'ihc five ntodels represented Uy 10 yc:u• numerical m2ntbet;hip nr~i, :ions b~'school lc;vei for .ac:, sr?ol cis ^Ci. ? nis does not represent ute ; °~. . Car ~70R'ia i 322 Ll:'I ntdl' Oct pO5ii?': C Oi i:::2~ \'tt DL't C2iti.r l}l~ 3l'2Gr4C 0? iP?' [i"U2j growth rates oa2r ten (10) y2an_ Standard for: Chapel T3i11 Carrboro School District Sec Attach~tnent tLD.~ .4nalrsis nfE.ristino Cvnditions I1;e -?2m'vershia figures ar?d perC2-tage .i,'.'.ii? {1n She 3rtaC1lntCniS 5}I(5tl' coitiinued ,trotrih at each school revel wiihin the sYStem. Ati'er3<<=c Annual Growth Rate over ten j'ears .~_...-:~.;_..,,.,~ 2003 3005 ~.. Recn»rltlendatiOn ~._.-sties v noted Staudard_for: Orange Couniy' School District S22 Attachment it-l)3 -111a1i'sis ~f Iristrt+g Conditions i1?l'?ner?'!I72r5111p IigLi CS anC pCCC Bfl13gC _rO tii,^, l ^ t}iP, IILt3Chmi'n i5 5^O~l' iC~:^:CZ£'<12O _~o•.~'ut zt each school 12r.i tvithfrt 2?'2 system. :lvcrage :~ttnual Growth Ftat2 over ten `: cols: :r= ~ - ~.a~;; 300.1 - 3005 -. __ , _ Hi~~h- - I ~4?, 1,71gU Recontnrendntinn 1S ~ttach3nent ti D f (2802-'OG=) M O O N N N N C O v 'o a w ~^ r }. ++ G 3 O V 'OA Y L J 7 V^/ !~ ~+ V ~O i a a~ ~_ N Q L O .~ i t4 V S W Q w 'C ~. ~° ?r 1 L ~~ _~ ~~ c o 7 ~ l i L ~= ~_ s~ Y .3 ~~ _~_ ~~- G V^ C C 'n-° •r. s'= ~g ~v xW e r~ ~~ ~. :J R Q L 7 r ~~ O O CV M Q O N N G O v 'o a.. a c a~ O V W /~ ,Y L O G 'J: N O a+ V O i a +r G a~ 0 0 .a L R V ~Ai' AWA liply~ \V /~ v '> !~ ~; =E i = S t~ ~__ ;x << X e r C !. ~Q ttf O N v 0 0 N C O :c. U G 'o L a a~ .~ U 01 c O C O 'i+ V ~O L a ~a 0 0 L L U ~.. a~ v .K, Y S C Y C „ G~ ~ C Y'^ =~ _s ;s .Section 11 r. Student I Housing Generation Rate Respansible Enlitp Jur Strggasring Change -'1 he updating of this section tcilt be conducted by Plmming Directors. School Reprext?t<aivcs, Ieclulical Advisory Comntittec (S~~PF07:AC) and referred to the BC)CC for certification. Projcctiol?swill be distributed to SAPFQ partners lur review and conunents to dte BOCC prior to certification. ?. Defrnitiun - A projected number of snldcats that arc generated t"rom t~~•o diiterent ttipes of housing, "single-family" and `other''. Single-fmnity also includes double-tt•ide or greater manufactured and modular iron?cs. •'Uther"includes multifamily znd sin~7lc•• wide ntobiIc hontcs, The standards '.t ere created Burin; the Tischtor and :lssociates School hnpact Fee Report of February '_OOi. 3. Standard for: Chapel Hill Carrboro School District See Attachment 11.L•.I Sraudard fut° Orange C'ounh- School District See Attachment IT E.I -tnnl~;ris of E.risting Corulltrats 1"he staffcommittee (S.APFnT:\C) is developing a program to indcpettdcntiy calculate snldcnt ecnerrtion rates using G1S and School reuorting systems. Phis program will rake a few years to develop, :ylso, note that students arc gcttcramd from net;• housing as well as from esisting housin~• where nets families have moved in. Tl~e CAPS system estimates ncty devtaopmet?t impacts and associated shldcnt generation but it is important to uttderstaltd that student inerrases are a composite of both of these ;actors.. This effect can he dramatic and can vary greatly bcriveen areas and districts where either new housing is dominant or nett' t a;tl111i;S ItlOt'C llll0 a larac t?1FCniorV Of Ctii_in?~ 110115111L' stoC$, ~~ =i i., .. ;. Itec~nunClydali~ut - ~'o clran;,e ?_ _ s ~_~;.:c~r ( ,~erauoa r2....< (-` --~ ;. _..::~ ......~: aCS z,z ~iocclan~d asp.? . ~_ .,_~_ ~~ ~ i C71 C`• ', d' ~~ .,..,,.~ 'C~ ' ,~+ C3 ' O d° ' C*i ~ ~ JJ N ~ ~ JC O ~ •~ GO I M ~ O,O~ l'^~ C ~i O 4 CO O •~ .~ 'TJ It j M i ~ ^ 2S ~- , M O !, O 4 O I ~ 4~ r-I ; O r. ~ o! o ~ ~ ~- Ga ' v - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o ~-. a ~ ~ ~! ~~ •~ ~' ~ w ~ ..., ~ ~ ~r ~G ~ ® ~ ~, ® r., , . v O ,~., I ~ .~.ii3CtliRBLr IL.L.1 'V ~ ni O ,~ "O 'Q; ~ 00 C°7 ["~ ~ ~ ~ I N,? r '~i. ~.r c~ O O _..__ „~ M M ~ I ~: •~ ~. O O I O O G, ; y "~ '~ ~ ~ O, d' O ! i C'~ O; O O OI ~ j i ~~ ~ i O ~ i f O ,i ~ ' i, V ~ ~ Gi ~U ee! cif O M ~-+I p ~ w o ol ~ ~ W , I I 'e U °~~ ~ _~ >: F _ E c ~ ~ .~ ; it •° :. ~ ~ ,... ~, ~ ~ ~ r~ .~ ~ d ^ (~' ~~= ~- l C: ~ _ j'/ U rf< ~~ SecNor7 11! III. FT..C>R'CIIART' Ok' ~SCHOC)LS ADEQU:~I"F. PTJBLIC FACILI't71!..S ORDINAICE PROCT.SS Abstract: The Schools,4dequate Public Facilities Ordinznce process has two distinct contaottents: :~. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (Process 1) Timeirame; ht Novembt:r of each year, 5ttuient \femhership and Building Capacity is trattsmitteti from the school districts to the Oranve Count} Bo. rd of Commissioners for consideration and approval and used in the lollo+ving years CTP (e.g. Noaember id,'_UUd ntetnbership nutftbers used to develop a CIP to be considered for adoption in June, 3001+1. Process Frame++ork i. S:IPFOTAC pt'ojects future student n?embership lions historical c[ata, cur*.ent tnctttbership and hypotltetical _~ro++'tit rates iron established methodolo_ics. ~. Schno) T7isu~icts and BOCC compare p%jections to caisting capacity and aroposed Capita! Invesunent Plan. ,i.. S:IPFOT~IC lbrn~ards data and projections to atll Schools APFO garners. -1. School 17istricts dcveIop Capital Ltvestment Plan Needs :lsscssment during this UNCCSs 5 The Capi[al Invcstntent Plan +vark sessions anti Public Hearings arc conducted Uy rite BC)CC in the spring of each year. 6. The adoption of C`iP that sets brit motties and timeframe for school construction (iimtre capacity) by I30CC, 55 r11?2i1;i11 cai llT.i~. ~ l r J V • A~ ~ ' Vj • IY~1 ~/ •~ V r r VV ~ rrT Y~ 1~ v U ~~ ~ i ~ >/ • n1 N ~ A ®.I r ;~ J C. ~..~ C~ : . ~. y f r n~ r O Q ~ ~ ~ ~ ~+/ `/ J Vl H `~ n 'l. y r ^r W J J • `~ } ~ U ~J f, .J f . ~, C t J r y I. J 'l. ~ t J Fri 7.+ '„+• a V ,., o r y rl d n n Gi r .D v ~ :J u ~ C I '~ .~ 1 w~' .n r V J C .~ '.' ~.+ C: C ~+ J ~ .~ v'- J ;. ", •v+ r Y _ ~' Vr/ ~i vv V C'v J r~" f ~ ~~ ~"'^. n ~ r Cl J .~' r r .. ~ ~"~ ~r~. C U ~ r e,^ J j Z L ~~ i J `.G „ o J 'l 'J D 1. J _ ~, J '_ _ -J J v j ~. J J ~ _ f y _ a J ~. ~` J . -_ -_ , v, :1 +~ `~ J 'J ?. > ; o ., r. _ r __ -_ _> = 'l. J _ - _ >, .. _ __ j _ :~ l J •,{ ., , 3 J ~ - J 'J 'l. _ ~ I~~~ /. v, "' r j r J } ~ j _ _ ,. -' s., :~. _ ~ ~ _ -f J f !' ~ J Y. . _ J r _ .~\) .)v Ci?Oii ~~% ti. Schools ..<~dequate Public Facilities Ordinance C'erti~cate ot':Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Update (Process 2) I'imeframc: TI?c CAPS system is updated approximately November 1> of each ~-ear when dte school districts report actual membership and `nm-ecrificd' capacity, whether it is C1P associated or prior `joint action' a_reement. '!Dint action' determinations of changes in capacity due to State rules or other non-constntction related lien?s arc anticipated to he done prior to the November I? capacity' an<I membership reporting date. This update may retlect the F3oard of Counts' C'ommissioncrs action on the earlier year Capital Ln'esnnznt Flan (CIP) as it af;ects capacity and addition of new actual fall membership ! he Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Ccrtific2.te of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) stays in effect until the follot;'inv year - (c._,; \oven?ber I5, 20(kt to November 14, 'OOS). Neu' development is oti~inally lo~~cd for a ce: gain year. As the CAPS system is updated, each CAPS projection year is `absorbed' he the acnrrl csitt~atc of a given year L[ucr year C:1PS projectiors of tho SamC development remain in tho lutttre year CAPS system accordingly For exarnpic, if a iQ•(ot subdivision is issued a CAPS. I5 lots may be assigned to "Year i," 10 lots to .:fear 2," 10 lots to "Year 3," 1O lots to "Yeaar A,'~ and ~ tots to "Year 5-" tiVhen "fear !" is updaicd, tl?c students generated Gom tl?c 1> lo-s arc absorbed by the actual cstitrate. ~ he sna9etns ,'enerated in "Years 3, 3, A, and ~" are Geld in the CAPS system and acttled to the appropriate }'car lvhen the C•~P$ systcrrt is updated, Please note that the nvo processes (CTP and C:1PS) arc on separate bu[ paral lel tracks.. Howcc•cr, the CIP does create a crossover ofcapacity information behveen the two processes. Por cxampie, dte Schools APFO system for both school districts tha[ will be established initiated ccri?Icd cacl? year in November and is based oa prior }ear created and i or planned CIP capacit}' and cunetn school year membership "I`he S ~?PFOT:yC repon utcluding new current year nrembershia and projections are to be used t'or oncoming CIP deveiopntcnt as nntect in Process l ;7 Seuinr,??? CIP Procoss I (for CTP 2001 - 301 S) ~overnber 2004 Junc 200 (ush;_ 20i't~ S.APFQTAC RepuC) Schools ;1Pf0 C;~PS Process 3 (or Schools .4PFQ Systcm 2UU4 - 30<?^ ~o~~entber' 2004 - lvovemher 200 ss .^~CLB~.i?i21P,ilF 11 ~.$.j v ~~d VV • ~i :!~ J .,.r •m~ • ial J `7qp~~~ ~v 7~ V 1~ Q ~`^./^~' W i s C r :~ :J .N4 V ~. 7 rr z 0 d' N ~r, 'J :~ } _/C f-. U .J .j V s ;.. :n .~-ti ti ~r, N ~/'1 ~ V - ~ a ~ U• 7 'T ti~ ~~a L-J ~ J lr T •~ j ~J '.~ IJ'1 i) ~= ~ v = ~ ~ r L .~ ~ l (U] ~.~ r "' C f= ;. 4. _ J "~ ~ .r.. U .; ~_ ti r ~ ~ CJ ~ 1: a cv s U~~ ~, ~ '{ ~ ~ ~ ~ V ~_ N 6J ~z T ~_ ~r, J ~ i~ ,5 ~ ~ '^J U ~ r `~' a ;~ ^J U „' i~ '~ c •> ti L n ~ J .n.. ~ V: r n h '- n ~ '~ ~ j y i •r v ~~ r:~ ri n z ~~ ti ~ ~~1 J YES ~ •w~ Y r ~ N~ O ~ ~ ~ U u ~ ~ J r: ~ ~ .y :n e> D II "~~ O G ~ C :1 ~^ ~ n_ ~ ~ J J > :r ~ o f • /•~ ~~/ v1 "l ? . •:+ C >, C: r J J J V ~ .. _ ~~ - 0 J - y „ ,- o ~~ = = I r ~ V -Yq l _ j J r 7 ~ ~_ ~ J ~~ ~ ~ ~, . ~ . r ` y ~ ; , _ , _ _ ~ u, y~ = cn U _ _ ~ ~!~ v 'f ~ ~ C ^ , •.+ v ~ /' J 7. C1 r 'J ti r J ~_- l _ _ 'J ~% `Jf '~-~ '~' J t `~ J .; f J - 'f. 'J ~ J ;f s _ - u ~ - - _ f :, r _ v ~ J •J r l J r u p ~ J J - V .. "J Y1 ° _ c :J 3 -' _ _ l =~ ~ l v U - J y - .'^ _ _ .L - ~ r - ~- - •r• ~- ~_ _' _ _ ~' _ < :i J j J !: Z j - r 'l. '- r G J ~ J 'J J.-`^ ~ ~z ;~, ~ - y' y~ -_^ .^`. - - J ~ ^ -• :1 V J _ _ _, n '1 ~ :! •J i J - - ~' ~ ~ 7 - J ~ ~_= j ~ ~ ^ ry l y ~ <%<7- ~<} 1~~. Annrrro~:~r, A'1°r:~ca~rr~ls ~....,.. ..._ _..-. .. _.; ara;nati I .~.! _..:... ~.. _... _.... .: ~.:?YFOTa~ reap*.~ .-~Cllitirri2rii !~~.I IS iltt 1~O(_(.~ .a~Ollt~ft ~\115i[ CC 18i1_ :iid :'tits Cini1C11CS) IOC i11C l)ICCIiliJCr tom. ~t(7~ ~~(. (. meeting at tchicll the \uvember 1 S, 20t)4 acwa! membership anti capacity numbcts for both school districts trcte aUDro~_ td, ~L7Ci U~ :25 related i0 the SAPl'O tc Ci"c' alsi! i~iiC L!Sd ai il1C !I1cEUn~', as addressed iii the ': 2r!OL'S Oilr27Ui15 Oi i.... ait2CElCu a^s T2C[. rliiaCllnl'wi 1`' ~ 1> i?le 5l LL(letli !)fUfCCilOti en::Ttt iOr (J; „;l"c~ CUinli:: ~8^OOIS (C)~'J~ ti ii?C SiUt1:Ri-.. :C!+~r l1:iS~ Siae rah? for grad C5 ~N 15 C}tatlg2(i l0 ~ l:! In al'cOTtianCe tci[it $'e ie (-)Cpali!n etll Ot llllh!IC 111$tTI:f LOII 111 ai10.":C23. A1Nlough the change in olass sic in grades h Ihron~il ~ decrezses availahlc capacity, it does nut raise Let•el uC Sel~~icc percentages abocc' the adooted Qlreshnlds in [h:: ! r,-ce=r planning timefranle in OCS. `hhe pro~znvnatie ir_<.; :: ..c.4:: Ci:O ;i.: ai the ~!t'meti!'rt ! ei :: ~!l \ bC : nTOS~nia:el\' ~<O Seat S, attachment Il'.3 is tll: student projc~tion r'_len tos C'il:ece! i__i-Ca-roero City Schools (CE~C'C:S} i!'iile sttldenUtaacher crass size rain far graites i::3 is changed to 31:1 in accurdancu tt•ith Si. to DepyRmeai u* Yuhlie Tnsuvctioll mandates. 'fhe change in class size in <_iades K thsous;il 3 t~•ottld necessitate an additi~nal_Icmrntary School i;: yc r 3006-" ins:cad o. ir. ye::r 3r~n).l ii in i^:~ l hzpel !till-Carrboro City Schools District. The p o ra...._ . ~::~ _ :.:.'~_.. capzcit:..t :..~ ~!..:.___ ,_ :,1 (.:CCti by aopro~'.:nate!, c, _ ts. Ulf ORANGE COUNTY BAARD OF COf iPAISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEt:1 ABSTRACT Meeting Date: December i4, 2004 Action Agenda Item No. 9- 6 SUBJECT: 10mYear Student Membership Projections and Schools Adequate Public DEPARTMENT: ManagedBudgetlPlanning.' Attorney ATTACHMENT{S): S.~.PFO P: embership Capacity Catcuiat;/n and Change Request Foms t0-Year Student il9embership Projec-~on TabtesiGraphs 09,'24/04 hAanager Memo re: New School Projects 11i23i04 Attorney Lefter on K-3 Class Si>_e Chart -County's Annual Debt Service Projections PUBLIC HEARING: (YIN) No INFORF.IATION CONTACT: Rod Visser, ext 2300 Donna Dean, exi 2151 Craig Benedict, ext 2592 Geof Gledhill, 732-2190 TELEPHONE NUMBERS: Hillsborough 732.8181 Chapel Hill 966.45D1 Durham 688-7331 Mebane 336-227-2031 PURPOSE: To consider approval df Nove~~ mar i5. 200= a Dual membership and capacity r ~umba:~ for the Orange County SCht1^~is and Chapet Ht's(-Carrboro City Schools; to receiti~e 10- yaar studan2 membership projections da,~eiapad :; ~rcugh agreed-upon models; and to conssder :'catlG~:ciiny 2 pOiii0n Of currently program,~,~d debt issuance f°J address aRACipatcd CQSt OVanUnS in Va(IOUS Cfi{ICaI 5Ch001 and COUn}' C'epital prOleCU. BACKGROUND: In 20D3, the County, iha ~~ro school systems, and the Towns of Carrboro, Chapel Hill, and Hillsborough entered Into mutual agreements that created a system of Schools Adequate Public Facilities ordinances. SAPFO was designed to ensure that new grov~th within the County's two school districts occurs at a pace that allows Orange County and the school districts to provide adequate school facilities to serve the children who will be living within new residential developments.. SAPFO Machinery The SAPFO f.1OUs (6lemorandums of Understanding) provide that the Board of County Cmmi55ionerS Shaii apprOVe the SChGCi DtSiIiCS' PC'Bm:bci i5 membership and capacify nUmb2s~ L•ii'u^.in i:fteen days after receiving u:e n:Ymbars frCm the $Ch001 DI$tri,:is,. BOtti SCh~€ Di5i7iC5 have SLbmittad their membership and capacity n'.:mbers. The actual SCc:Lleni membership sgures as of November 15 eac;; year are run through five separate student membership projection models by a Technical Ad~.'isery Commi wee (SAPFOTAC) comprised of reprsentatives of the County, Towns, and school systems. The average of the tfive models becomes the basis for programming the cons'~ruction of additional school space to GI filfltl;hlL.ilt ~'. t accommodate forecast growth in student membership. The membership numbers reflect an actual student count as defined in the MOU. The capacity that is noted is from last year's SAPFOTAC cer"tification- The SAPFOTAC analytical work would normally take place In the January-February fimeframe, but was accelerated for 2004-05 at the request of the BOCC because the results of the SAPFOTAC analysis of updated student membership projections will have a significant impact on major capital funding decisions that the BOCC will need to make in the very near future. SAPFOTAC is tasked So produce an annual report for the governing boards of each SAPFO partner. The full annual SAPFOTAC report will be completed in early 2005. Building Capacity There has been extensive discussion among the governing boards and staff of the County and school systems throughout 2004 regarding the certification of individual school building capacities, The State of North Carolina has taken unilateral action during the past rivo years to dictate to local school administrative units that the average class size throughout a school district for grades K-3 must be reduced to 1 teacher for every 21 students. As the BOCC has noted, this has in effect created an unfunded mandate for county governments to provide additional school space v/ith no time to plan for the funding and construction of new space. Foilovring discussion on the subject at a November 2004 work session, the County Attorney examined the requirements for reduced class size and the possible sanctions or other ramfficaGons that might face any school system that is unable to comply with the average class size mandates, The accompanying letter from the Attorney outlines the results of his research. As provided for in the SAPFO Section t.b ".....'building capacity' will be determined... by a joint action of the School Board and the BOCC." Therefore, until there is a 'joint action' agreeing to fhe impact of ne~v State rules for classroom size in grades K-3, the existing capacity levels are being used for capacity/membership projection comparisons. Implications of Updated Ten Year Student Membership Projections SAPFO provides that the County must provide funding and a school system must construct new school space so that the level of Service (LOS} for elementary school space will not exceed i05% of capacity across an entire school district. The updated ten-year student membership projections prepared by SAPFOTAC and reflected on the accompanying charts indicate that, absent the creation of new seats, the 105% level of service would be exceeded at the elementary level in the Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools for academia year 2009-10. Accordingly, adherence to SAPFO provisions vrill require that new permanent elementary school space be available for the beginning of that school year. The Headed opening date has shifted back three years compared to the 2000-07 opening contemplated in last year's student membership projections.. Slowing growth produced only minor enrollment increases at the elementary level in the Chapel Hili-Carrboro Schools during the currenf schoai year. CHCCS Middle School #5 is projected to be needed in 2013-2014.. B00 new seats will become available vrith the anticipated opening of CHCCS High School #3 in August 2007. Based on fhe updated student membership projections, there is no other additional high school space Headed ~viihin the tan-year planning period. G3 _. 11ti~C.}itTlCnt ~V'-~ (pa~?c ~~ o? s) The Orange County School student membership projections reflect no requirement at This time for additional school seats during the ten-year planning horizon, beyond the construction of Middle School #3 that is in progress, and slated for opening in August 2006. Other Observations Recently, the Board asked Couniy staff to review estimates by both school systems' architects regarding likely shortfalls in the established budgets for OCS Middle School T3 and CHCCS High School #3 Both school systems have been advised that higher prices for steel, concrete, and fuel, among other factors, make it very likely that construction bids vrill significantly exceed the project allocations for construction. County staff have been working vrith the school staffs and architects and plan to bring responses on January 24 to the BOCC-requested analysis about factors affecting the anticipated cost overruns for the rivo new school projects. The Manager has explained during the past several months that the County faces significant constraints, under its own policies, regarding the issuance of debt beyond that already programmed in the County's debt issuance schedule. That fact was reviewed in detail during several Board vroric sessions this fall. The accompanying chart depicts the County's anticipated annual debt capacity over the next ten years, with very little latitude to assume any norr~programmed debt through FY 20D7-08. Estimates of potential cost overruns just for the two new school projects have been in the range of $6 million to $7rnillion. The Manager has made it clear that he will not recommend that the County issue additional debf to address additional iunding requested by both school systems for the new school projects, beyond that already programmed, until the Couniy regains additional debt issuance flexibility beginning with FY 2008-09. In view of that, the Manager transmitted a September 24, 2004 memo io both Superintendents soliciting ideas about how the anticipated cost overruns for the respective nevr school projects might be addressed through reallocation of resources available to the school systems through their CIPs and other revenue streams. To this point, there have been no expressed :^rritten alternatives to the Manager's proposal that a portion of the planned issuance of S12.8 million in debt for CHCCS Elementary School Y10 be shifted to address anticipated cost overruns for the two school projects end otr,er County capital projects chat are in development. • In the absence of viable alternatives and with the SAPFO-calculated postponement in the need for the opening of CHCCS Elementary School #10 until the 2009-10 academic year, the Manager recommends that the BOCC indicate its intention now to redirect some portion of debt planned for Elementary ;#10 to address other, more urgent capital funding needs. • The adopted 2004-14 Capital Investment Plan (CIP) would be amended to reflect the need for funds to construct CHCCS Elementary Y10 with a revised opening data of August 2009, The Superintendent reports that the project architects have advised her chat construction on OCS Middle School #3 must begin bymid-February 2005 to keep the project on track for an August 2006 opening. Accordingly, fhe Orange County Board of Education will likely consider awarding the construction bid and approving associated contracts at their scheduled meeting on January 24, 2005.. • BOCC action to reallocate specific amounts of planned debt to provide appropriate revised capital project budgets would be scheduled no sooner Phan the next BOCC regular meeting on January 24, 2005. That action could fake the form of endorsement of specific project budget amounts andlcr the adoption of updated capital project ordinances. • The existing inierlocal agreement betvreen Orange County and CHCCS establishing the project budget for High School M3 at 527.8 million plus 51.9 million for "smart grovrth" C3 _l.~echm... i~.' . la ice'-0i ' ~ !d have to be revised -C whatever action the BOGG may take to adj;i5i irui'.ait aS l1_Ui i0 reito the Ccunb,'s funding allocated #o the proj~ t. Tha Board has indicated its intention to discuss at the January 22, 2005 annual piannine retreat the implications of various school-related initiatives -such as Educational Excellence, Efficiency, and Collaboration - in the larger context of measures the Board may consider to promote greaser funding equity behveen the two school systems in the future. FINANCIAL IMPACT: Precise financial impacts cannot be determined, but possible chances in projected building capacity and projected grox~h in student membership for the next ten years :via have i..:pacts on future operating and capital budgets measured in the tens of mi!iions of dCiia, 5. RECOh9FAENDATION(S): The Adminstrron recommends chat the Board: • Approve fire November 15, 2604 actual student membership numbers; • Receive the information about i0-year student projection averages; Approve the building capacity figures based on the individual school building capacity numbers for both school systems at the levels certified for 2003-04; Indicate the Commissioners' intention to reallocate, as necessary and appropriate, funding from the previously planned issuance of S12.8 million in debt for CHCCS Elementary School #10 to address cost overn:ns for CHCCS High School r:3, OCS Middle School #3, and other priority Coinf capita( projects as determined by the BOCC; Cireci s+~:~ to revise the 2004-i4 CIP to in~'ude a fundi„g plan that would provds fcr ate ccr:struction of CHCCS Elementary r i0 a:'org a timeiine consistent with the need fcr ne:'r SCt'iC01 Space as identfned in tine updated SAPFO ten-year studenf membarshp prejectians (i.e. opening for the 2008-t 0 academic year). 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