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Home My WebLink AboutAgenda - 04-29-2002 - 5 ORANGE COUNTY ASSEMBLY OF GOVERNMENTS —April 29, 2002 Agenda Item 5: Shaping Orange County's Future Options for Consideration by the Governing Boards: 1. Agree that content of SOCF Provisional Report is complete and/or pass a resolution. 2. Direct staff to pursue graphics specialist firm/company to: a. Prepare an abridged version of the report for a newspaper insert; and/or b. Do necessary style and format changes to the full 96 page report and publish it. (Note: There are 15 appendices containing over 200 pages that accompany the report— it is not recommended that they be included). 3. Prepare summary of town and county status reports that: a. may b. may not be included with option two. 4. In lieu of option three, attach letters of city/county accomplishments supporting the SOCF initiative from mayors and BOCC chair. 5. Refer the issue of a "Citizen's Roundtable" to town and county staffs for evaluation and recommendation due back to all governing boards early in calendar year 2003. Ffhl' = MEEMPY-A W,-A VA o�AN E eou►� G �D�UtATION �11A POPULATION COUNTS AND NON-ADJUSTED PROJECTIONS 1980 TO 2040 FOR ORANGE COUNTY TOWNSHIPS AND MUNICIPALITIES Prepared by the Orange County Planning and Inspections Department, April 2002 The population projections contained herein are based strictly on previous mathematical growth rates, and do not include adjustments for amount of developable land; economic trends or conditions; current land use policies; and/or other similar factors. The constraints of land and policy on projected populations will be factored in as coordinated land use conditions and policies unfold from the local jurisdictions. TOWNSHIP POPULATION' AVG 10-YEAR POPULATION PROJECTIONS3 Municipality 1980 1990 T-2000 GROWTH RATE' 2010 2020 2030 2040 BINGHAM 3,954 5,184 6,181 0.250 7,726 9,658 12,073 15,091 CEDAR GROVE 3,166 3,691 4,930 0.255 6,187 7,765 9,745 12,230 CHAPEL HILL 50,572 61,973 79,274 0.255 98,574 125,671 161,739 210,316 Town of Carrboro 7,517 12,134 16,782 0.499 23,210 34,783 52,127 78,119 Town of Chapel Hi114 32,038 37,596 46,798 0.209 56,584 68,417 82,724 100,023 Unincorporated 11,017 12,243 15,694 0.197 18,779 22,471 26,888 32,174 CHEEKS 4,821 5,422 7,064 0.210 8,586 10,446 12,724 15,518 City of Mebane 4 379 485 675 0.336 902 1,204 1,607 2,147 Unincorporated 4,442 4,937 6,389 0.203 7,685 9,243 11,117 13,371 ENO 4,450 5,262 6,092 0.170 7,128 8,340 9,758 11,417 HILLSBOROUGH 8,599 10,136 11,639 0.165 13,848 16,722 20,484 25,437 Town of Hillsborough 3,019 4,263 5,446 0.345 7,324 9,848 13,243 17,809 Unincorporated 5,580 5,873 6,193 0.053 6,524 6,873 7,241 7,628 LITTLE RIVER 1,493 2,183 3,047 0.430 4,357 6,231 8,910 12,742 TOTAL COUNTY 77,055 93,851 118,227 N/A 146,406 184,833 235,434 302,751 Notes and Sources: 1 The Population figures for 1980, 1990,and 2000 are from the US Census. 2 The Average 10-Year Growth Rate is the average between the 1980 to 1990 and 1990 to 2000 growth rates. 3 The Population Projections for 2010 to 2040 are based upon the population figure for the previous timeframe multipled by the Average 10-Year Growth Rate,which is the growth figure.The growth figure is then added to the previous timeframe figure to get the projected population(i.e.for Bingham Township from 2000 to 2010:6181 x.250= 1545; 1545+6181 =7726). In Townships with Municipalities,the total population for the Township is the sum of the Unincorporated areas and the Municipal populations.The total population for those Townships is not based upon the Township's growth rate.The Population Projections for the County from 2010 to 2040 are based upon the sum of the population figures for each of the Townships. 4 For the municipalities,only the portions within Orange County are included. The Town of Chapel Hill's population figures do not include portions in Durham County,and the City Mebane's population figures do not include the portions in Alamance County. GATTEMPIAWOG Pop Proj handout.xls Page 1 SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION: POPULATION COUNTS AND NON-ADJUSTED PROJECTIONS 1980 TO 2040 FOR ORANGE COUNTY TOWNSHIPS AND MUNICIPALITIES Prepared by the Orange County Planning and Inspections Department,April 2002 G. .POPULATION °.: 10-YEAR GROWTH RATES JURISDICTIONS 7� 98Q - x1990 . _ 2000 °; 1980-1990 1990-2000 1 AVG Total County 77;055 `..b. � `°,93;85'I .' `118227F 0.22 0.26 0.240 Townships: ,.V Bingham x..:;3;954 5;184`: ," ., 6,'1$1;a 0.31 0.19 0.250 Cedar Grove �, ,�3;166 930` 0.17 0.34 0.255 Chapel Hill 50';572' .�, � 81;97Y, �,r799274 0.23 0.28 0.255 _ . 0.12 Cheeks 5,422u 0.30 0.210 Eno 4,450 ...::'.5,262: F9;092,. 0.18 0.16 0.170 Hillsborough ,..:'8;599`; � .-,0 136' 91`639` 0.18 0.15 0.165 Little River . 1493 _ '� ..�. 2�183� ��,. ."x,047'. 0.46 0.40 0.430 Municipalities: Town of Carrboro °7,57 ', � "� . 2, 4; $.18,T$2.: 0.614 0.383 0.499 Town of Chap el Hill �� 82;038w ,K _ 7;596 X46°798"� 0.173 0.245 0.209 City of Mebane x.. : , 379 �2 „ :485 675">' 0.280 0.392 0.336 Town of Hillsborough n 3,01 4,263 0.412 0.278 0.345 POPULATION PROJECTIONS JURISDICTIONS 42046- GROWTH 2010-20 GROWTH 2020-302030 ' GROWTH 2030-40240. TOTAL COUNTY 4A M146-'09941', 35,997 182,991 45,109 ,_-228,r100.� 56,616 2`84,796„ Townships: A�.n.`_ . .. ;� .. , . ; zi' Bingham ,;7,726w 1,932 9,65$ 2,415 12:C!71,'-',' Cedar Grove6; 87, 1,578 X7;765: 1,9809;745 2,485 .5 : 2#231 0=' Chapel Hill 994$9' 25,370 , -4859' 31,839956;69$ 39,95896;66 .;ti Cheeks b8,547: 1,7951Q,342 2,1722,514.= 2,628 5,142w Eno "-7;128 1,212 X8,340` 1,418 9788 1,659 max. ., X11;4174 Hillsborough . 13559 2,237 „ 5;796 2,60618,402! 3,036 21,439;- Little River _* »4;357;; 1,874 _X6,'231;; 2,679 ,$;9f0• 3,831 Munici alities: Town of Carrboro -23;210 11,573 z", ,.;783'; 17,344 X52-X1.27=; 25,992 Town of Chapel Hill , :56-584: 11,833 ,,,.4 $8,417s, 14,307 02,724; 17,299 :100,023 City of Mebane t x=.902.:: 303 x 41.,204„' 404 o* Q71 540 C,94k Town of Hillsborough 4,0 7,324 2,525 ps p 9,$48 3,395 7 13,243 4,566 Notes and Sources: -- The Population figures for 1980,1990,and 2000 are from the US Census. -- The Average 10-Year Growth Rate is the average between the 1980 to 1990 and 1990 to 2000 growth rates. — The Population Projections for 2010 to 2040 are based upon the population figure for the previous timeframe multipled by the Average 10-Year Growth Rate,which is the growth figure.The growth figure is then added to the previous timeframe figure to get the projected population(i.e.for Bingham Township from 2000 to 2010:6181 x.250=1545;1545+6181 =7726).The Population Projections for the County from 2010 to 2040 are based upon the sum of the population figures for each of the Townships. G:\TTEMPIA\AOG Pop Proj handout.xls Page 2 CHAPEL HILL TOWNSHIP: 2000 POPULATION FIGURE AND NON- ADJUSTED POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2010-2040 ■Town of Carrboro 0 o Town of Chapel Hill moo°o ■ Unincorporated 00 0 z o00 O a -- a o00 1 z oO [� 3 0 KOO µ �OD 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 YEAR Source:2000 US Census and Orange County Planning and Inspections Dept.,2002 Prepared by:Orange County Planning and Inspections Dept.April 2002 g:\ttempia\AOG Pop Proj handout.xls Page 3 HILLSBOROUGH TOWNSHIP: 2000 POPULATION FIGURE AND NON- ADJUSTED POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2010-2040 o°o 0 Town of Hillsborough o o ■ Unincorporated Z 0 a a h^ ° 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 YEAR Source:2000 US Census and Orange County Planning and Inspections Dept.,2002 Prepared by Orange County Planning and Inspections Dept.,April 2002 g:\ttempia\AOG Pop Proj handout.xls Page 4 CHEEKS TOWNSHIP: 2000 POPULATION FIGURE AND NON- ADJUSTED POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2010-2040 ° ❑City of Mebane moo, 2,147 ■ Unincorporated 1,607 o° 1,204 a N0 902 J M _. O 675 - a rx� 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 YEAR Source:2000 US Census and Orange County Planning and Inspections Dept.,2002 Page 5 Prepared by Orange County Planning and Inspections Dept.,April 2002 g:\ttempia\AOG Pop Proj handout.xls