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Home My WebLink About2017 Annual Report of the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) P)OF 3- abi� MARKDOROSIN,CHA/R Orange County Board of Commissioners u 52 PENNY R/CH,V/CE CHAIR MIA BURROUGHS Post Office Box 8181 BARRYJACOBS MARKMARCOPLOS 200 South Cameron Street EARL MclL E RENEER R ICCE Hillsborough, North Carolina 27278 RENEE P PENNY RICH March 8,2017 Pam Hemminger, Mayor Dr. Stephen H. Halkiotis, Chair Town of Chapel Hill Orange County Board of Education 405 Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd. 200 E. King Street Chapel Hill,NC 27514 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Lydia Lavelle,Mayor James Barrett,Chair Town'of Carrboro Chapel Hill-Carrboro Board of Education 301 W. Main Street 750 Merritt Mill Road Carrboro,NC 27510 Chapel Hill,NC 27516 Tom Stevens,Mayor Town of Hillsborough P.O. Box 429 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Subject: Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)Annual Report Dear Sir or Madam: This letter is to update you on the status of the 2017 Annual SAPFOTAC Report. In accordance with the SAPFO Memoranda of Understanding(MOU),the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) approved the November 15, 2016 actual membership and capacity numbers for Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill— Carrboro City Schools at its meeting on December 5,2016. The SAPFOTAC, comprised of representatives of both school systems and the Planning Directors of the County and Towns has produced the 2017 Annual Report. As per the SAPFO MOU,the annual technical report contains information on Level of Service, Building Capacity, Membership Date, Capital Investment Plan, Student Membership Projection Methodology, Student Membership Projections, Student Membership Growth Rate, Student/Housing Generation Rate, and the SAPFO Process. Enclosed for your use are copies of the 2017 Executive Summary and the March 7, 2017 BOCC meeting agenda item abstract when the BOCC received the draft report. YVYVW.ORANGECOUNTYNC.GOV PROTECTING AND PRESERVING—PEOPLE,RESOURCES, QUALITY OF LIFE ORANGE COUNTY,NORTH CAROLINA—YOU COUNT! (919)242130 The full draft SAPFOTAC report is available on the Orange County Planning Department website in the Current Interest Projects section at the following link: http://www.co.oran e.nc.us/plannin /g/SpecialProiects.asp The 2017 Annual SAPFOTAC Report is scheduled to be certified by the BOCC at a regular meeting in May 2017. Therefore, if you have any comments pertaining to the report,please forward them to Craig K Benedict, Planning Director,no later than 5:00 p.m. on April 10,2017. Mr. Benedict can be reached by phone at(919) 245-2592 or by e-mail at cbenedict@orangecountync.gov. Any comments received will be part of our agenda package in May. Please share this information and the 2017 SAPFOTAC report with your respective boards. Sincerely s Mark Dorosin Chair Enclosures cc: Board of County Commissioners Bonnie Hammersley, Orange County Manager Travis Myren,Deputy Orange County Manager Roger L. Stancil,Manager, Town of Chapel Hill David Andrews, Manager, Town of Carrboro Eric Peterson, Manager, Town of Hillsborough Jim Causby, Interim Superintendent, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Todd Wirt, Superintendent, Orange County Schools Todd LoFrese, Assistant Superintendent for Support Services, Chapel Hill—Carrboro City Schools Catherine Mau, Coordinator for Student Enrollment, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Patrick Abele, Chief Operations Officer, Orange County Schools Craig Benedict,Planning Director, Orange County Ben Hitchings, Planning and Development Services Director, Town of Chapel Hill Margaret Hauth, Planning Director, Town of Hillsborough Trish McGuire,Planning Director, Town of Carrboro WWW.ORA NGECOUNTYNC.GOV PROTECTING AND PRESERVING-PEOPLE, RESOURCES, QUALITY OF LIFE ORANGE COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA- YOU COUNT! (979)245-2 130 9 2017 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service....................................................................(No Change)........pg. l Chapel HilUCarrboro Orange County School District School District Eleme 105% 105% Middle 107% 107% High 110% 110% B. Building Capacity and Membership..................................(Change)..............Pg. 2 Chapel HNICarrboro Orange County School District School District Capacity Membership Increase from Capacity Membership Increase from Prior Year Prior Year Elementary 5829 5567 66 3694 3293 (25 Middle 2944 2829 15 2166 1724 15 High 3875 3762 61 1 2439 2446 23) C. Membership Date—November 15.......................................(No Change)........Pg.17 II. Annual Update to SAPFO System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) ...........................................(No Change)........Pg. 18 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology.................(No Change)........Pg. 19 The average of 3,S,and 10 year history/cohort surviva4 linear and arithmetic projection models. C. Student Membership Projections.......................................(Change)..............Pg. 29 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2016-17 School Year—Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools (The fast column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2016-2017 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual. Year Projection Made for 2016-17 Membership Actual 2016 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 Membership Elementary 5567 6026 H459 5837 H270 5845 H278 5662 H95 5552 1 L15 Middle 2829 2987 H158 3004 H175 2962 H133 2928 1 H99 2830 1 H1 High 3762 4018 1 H256 4016 H254 3893 1 H131 3798 1 H36 3757 1 LS i 10 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2016-17 School Year-Orange County Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2016-2017 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual. Year Projection Made for 2016-17 Membership Actual 2016 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 Membership F-Elementary 3293 3699 H406 3622 H329 3567 1 H274 3274 1 L19 3325 H32 Middle 1724 1853 H129 1785 H61 1824 11100 1746 1 H22 1743 H19 High 2446 1 2449 H3 2429 1 L17 2468 I H22 2540 1 H94 2504 1 1158 D. Student Membership Growth Rate....................................(Change)..............Pg. 39 Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over Next 10 Years Chapel HiMICarrboro Orange County School District School District Year Projection 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Made- Elementary 1.18% 1.44% 1.11% 0.92% 0.91% 1.31% 1.30% 0.55% 0.80% 0.51% Muddle 1.59% 1.58% 1.15% 0.82% 0.95% 1.64% 1.42% 0.09% 0.67% 0.36% High 1 1.60% 1 1.27% 1 1.22% 0.93% 0.72% 1 1.43% 1 1.35% 1 0.39% 0.56% 0.22% E. Student/Housing Generation Rate ..................................(No Change)........Pg. 42 SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS (based on future year Student Membership Projections) CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 95.5%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, but remain positive(average-0.91%per year compared to 1.24% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10-year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard(current LOS is 96.1%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, but remain positive(average-0.95% compared to an average of 1.28%over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year projection period. ii 11 High School Level A. Does not currently exceed the 110%LOS standard(current LOS is 97.1%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase over the next 10 years (average—0.72%compared to 0.45%over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need to expand Carrboro High School from the initial capacity of 800 students to the ultimate capacity of 1,200 students in the 10-year projection period. ORANGE COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105%LOS standard(current LOS is 89.1%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease,but remain positive over the next 10 years (average—0.51%compared to 1.02%over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10-year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard(current LOS is 79.6%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease,but remain positive over the next 10 years (average—0.36%compared to 0.92%over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year projection period. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed 110%LOS standard(current LOS is 100.3%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease,but remain positive over the next 10 years (average--0.22%compared to 1.53%over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need to expand Cedar Ridge High School from the initial capacity of 1,000 students to 1,500 students in the 10-year projection period. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance(SAPFO)student projections illustrate when the adopted level of service capacities are forecasted to be met and/or exceeded in anticipation of CIP planning and the construction of a new school. However, as is being identified by both school districts, a new trend is emerging to renovate and expand existing facilities to address school capacity needs in a more feasible way. As this trend continues, additional capacity resulting from school renovations and expansions will be added to the projection models in stages, once funding is approved,versus the addition of greater capacity when a new school is constructed and completed. The renovation and expansion to existing facilities may delay construction of new schools further into the future. This process will pose some challenges to SAPFO compared to the existing process which indicates in advance when a completely new school is needed. Decisions on the timing of reconstruction funding would be indirectly linked to the SAPFO model. iii 12 SAPFO student projections for this year are not showing a need for new school construction or expansion in the 10-year projection period for both school districts due to slowing student growth rates. However,planned residential development in the near future may increase student membership and accelerate school construction and expansion needs into the 10-year projection period. Although capacity and construction needs are not identified this year,both school districts face a large backlog of school capital projects that need to be addressed. Given that student projections are not showing an immediate need for school construction in the 10-year period, this may provide the time for both school districts to commence and/or complete these projects in order to address ongoing needs. The State of North Carolina passed legislation in 2015 resulting in a decrease in class size averages for kindergarten to third grade for the 2017-18 school year. Based on legislation,the class size averages may be reduced from 1:21 to 1:17. Due to significant statewide ramifications as a result of the reduced class size averages,the North Carolina General Assembly is reviewing a second bill to modify and increase the 1:17 class size averages in time for the 2017-18 school year. If legislative action is not taken,the 1:17 class size averages will remain and result in a decrease in capacity of approximately 444 students for OCS and 660 students for CHCCS. This will have significant impacts for both school districts,resulting in over capacity situations and requiring additional mobile units at the elementary school level. The SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee will continue monitoring this issue. iv