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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda - 11-01-2016-13-5 - Information Item - Employment and Population Guide Totals for Transportation Modeling INFORMATION ITEM 1 PLANNING & INSPECTIONS DEPARTMENT Craig N. Benedict, AICP, Director Administration 131 W. Margaret Lane (919) 245-2575 Suite 201 (919) 644-3002 (FAX) w„ VU a P. O. Box 8181 www.orangecountync.gov R)ift :ARO1 I N M Hillsborough, NC 27278 gypD aA�� .�*I�'�umiom�[smuir"u��omi uu u � �I IV uuN�r a i l Av '� 1 km, 100 11 0" rr MEMORANDUM TO: Board of County Commissioners FROM: Max Bushell, Orange County Transportation Planner DATE: November 1, 2016 SUBJECT: INFORMATION ITEM — Employment and Population Guide Totals for Transportation Modeling ATTACHMENT 1: Population and Employment Guide Totals ATTACHMENT 2: Modeling Process Graphic As part of the Durham Chapel Hill Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization (DCHC MPO) and Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO) planning process to create a joint Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP), local transportation and land use planners provided detailed spatial information about current and future land use types and the development status of parcels county-wide to populate a land use model. Local transportation and land use planners also reviewed guide totals indicating future population and employment projections (Attachment 1). These are fundamental components in a process entitled Imagine 2045. Overall Process Imagine 2045 uses the CommunityViz modeling tool to create a scenario-based approach for evaluating land use and transportation decisions. Using agreed-upon guide totals for future population and employment, the model creates scenarios (i.e. maps) that take different geographic representations of transportation networks and land use assumptions into account. Transportation networks vary by scenario and include a no improvements network (current status quo), an existing and committed transportation improvements network, and a future desired transportation improvements network. In a similar vein, land use assumptions for the type of use on a parcel and the development status of that parcel include a current zoning assumption, a future land use plan assumption (from the Orange County Comprehensive Plan Future Land Use Map), and an aspirational land use planning assumption. The aspirational land use planning assumption includes additional growth around key anchor institutions, such as universities, hospitals, and downtowns. Each scenario is evaluated using a set of performance measures, which relate to the goals and objectives of the respective MPOs. The current process is managed by the Triangle "J" Council of Governments (TJCOG) with participation from local governments and both the DCHC MPO and CAMPO. The ultimate intent of the modeling process is to calibrate the travel demand model, known locally as the Triangle Regional Model (TRM), with accurate and up-to-date socioeconomic data. The TRM is used in the MTP process to help evaluate how the difference in land use patterns 2 and change in development intensities influence the current and proposed transportation network. The modeling process, which is updated every four years as part of the MTP process, is presented graphically in Attachment 2. Role of Guide Totals Guide totals, representing the future year (2045) employment and population projections, play an important role in the modeling process. The guide totals, presented in Attachment 1, serve as the future demand in the entire county, essentially, the projected amount of growth in population and employment slated to occur. In order for the model to function correctly, all new growth must be accommodated in the county, i.e. each parcel will receive either employment or population growth based on the type of land use and availability for development and the suitability of the specific parcel for development. The parcels that are suitable for new development represent the future supply; all of the future growth in population and employment (demand) must be accommodated in the county for the model to function correctly. Population Forecasts The population forecasts for Orange County use the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management (NC OSBM) methodology to forecast to 2045. Currently, the NC OSBM forecasts only to 2035. In comparison with other forecasting methods, such as using a linear growth rate, exponential growth rate, or logarithmic forecasting method, the OSBM method forecasts the lowest population figure for 2045. The estimated population for Orange County in 2045 is 194,867. Please see Attachment 1 for more information. Orange County Transportation Planning staff evaluated each of these methods and is in agreement with the decision to use the NC OSBM methodology to forecast 2045 population in the County. Employment Forecasts With regard to employment forecasts, however, Orange County Transportation Planning staff as well as planners from each Orange County community expressed concern that the guide total for Orange County employment in the Imagine 2045 process is too high. The current guide totals for employment are based on Woods & Poole employment growth rates and are higher than expected for the county. It is, however, important to note that TJCOG has undertaken discussions with major anchor institutions, such as UNC-Chapel Hill, with regard to their projected growth in employment. UNC-Chapel Hill has indicated that employment at the university is forecast to grow by 18,130 jobs in 2045. Even with this amount of employment growth accommodated at the university, the Woods & Poole forecasts for employment may still be too high. Orange County Transportation Planning staff is hopeful that the work to update the land use types and development status will ameliorate any concerns about the forecasts from the Imagine 2040 model run. However, if issues do arise, staff will work in coordination with Orange County municipalities, the University, and TJCOG to address any issues in the best possible manner. Key Points • It is important to note that while the goal of this model is to accurately reflect the realities of land development in Orange County, this is nonetheless a modeling effort and is inherently flawed. 2 3 • The outputs of this model (parcel level data) will be aggregated to a larger geography (Traffic Analysis Zone), summarized, and added into the TRM to assess future transportation needs. • Only the Orange Water and Sewer Authority (OWASA) has plans to use the CommunityViz model outputs for purposes other than Transportation Planning. • The CommunityViz model is updated every four years in a process that takes approximately two years to complete. • The discussions for the 2050 MTP Update will begin in 2018. • The CommunityViz model is assessed after each MTP process and as the software is updated. TJCOG is constantly refining the modeling process in the Triangle Region. MTP Milestones The MTP is currently in the nascent stages of development. As the planning process moves forward, a more definitive schedule will be developed. As part of the process, the MPO Board for DCHC MPO will receive opportunities to review and comment on the plan. 3 Attachment 1 4 Draft 2045 MTP Guide Totals Edited:August 15,2016 These are the preliminary 2045 MTP guide totals,using the same analysis process as was used in Imagine 2040. The population projections are for the full counties in the MTP region.Using the 2013 estimates from the N.C.Office of State Budget and Management,and their projections out to 2035,projected growth was extrapolated out to 2045. The net households added to the region between 2013 and 2045 were calculated using the population numbers,the single-family/multi-family splits from Imagine 2040,and average household size for each from the 2010-2014 ACS. The net households added are for the full counties as well. The employment projections are calculated for the TRM region only. Growth rates were calculated from Woods&Poole's employment projections, as they are the only data source that projects out to 2045. However,given concerns that their employment numbers tend to be high,the base 2013 data comes from InfoUSA data that has been cleaned and verified by local planners through Employment Analyst.The Woods&Poole growth rates were applied to the 2013 Employment Analyst base data to provide 2025 and 2045 employment estimates. Net Households Added 2025 2045 County 2013 2025 2045 County Total SF IMF Total SF IM IF Chatham 67,587 81,136 105,958 Chatham 5,367 4,991 376 15,198 14,135 1,064 Durham 286,210 353,649 475,091 Durham 26,246 17,060 9,186 73,509 47,781 25,728 Franklin 62,715 69,923 83,313 Franklin 2,811 2,727 84 8,033 7,792 241 Granville 57,844 60,188 64,391 Granvillel 855 778 77 2,388 2,173 215 Harnettl 123,432 150,535 200,131 Harnett 9,577 8,715 862 27,102 24,663 2,439 Johnston 177,312 222,091 314,100 Johnston 15,515 14,584 931 47,394 44,550 2,844 Nash 94,633 92,429 88,239 Nash (860) (740) (120) (2,495) (2,146) (349) Orange 139,289 158,244 194,867 Orange 7,831 5,090 2,741 22,961 14,925 8,036 Person 39,158 39,791 40,353 Person 243 234 10 459 441 18 Wake 964,934 1,206,046 1,647,536 Wake 90,135 63,095 27,041 255,178 178,625 76,553 Total 2,013,114 2,434,032 3,213,980 Total 157,720 116,533 41,187 449,728 332,938 116,790 From NC OSBM projections dated 08Oct2015,extrapolated to 2045 Steps used: 1 Used population numbers to determine net added population 2 Applied proportions of SF/MF housing units,from Imagine 2040 process 3 Applied average household size of SF/MF units,from 2010-2014 ACS 5-Year estimates County 2013 2025 2045 4 Calculated net new occupied units(full calculations on"Households"tab Chatham 9,374 12,163 17,784 Durham 227,924 289,559 405,219 Franklin 14,617 18,449 25,218 Granville 8,576 10,128 12,325 Harnettl 5,704 7,165 9,639 Johnston 43,960 55,009 72,331 Nash 335 386 444 Orange 66,405 83,666 111,473 Person 9,988 10,957 11,692 Wake 552,018 715,817 1,025,938 Total 1 938,901 1,203,298 1,692,063 Note,this is for the TRM area only Steps used: 1 2013 employment from Employment Analyst 2 2025 and 2045 employment reached by applying Woods&Poole's rates of employment growth from their 2015 data book from 2013-2025 and 2013-2045 Calculations completed by TJCOG staff Attachment 2 5 Overall Model Relationships Triiangle R!eg�iomal Model (T�iZ+MJ)P_ro,�,c`,e�ss Imagine 2045 Data .. Simplified Imagine 2 (Cowm t fiz') Pro, c,ges,�s, Deficiencies • Creates Alternatives mw- T09Weg 11J Co,u,Ln Inputs `ofl Governments Preferred • Land Use and Transportation Network Land Use and • Development • • Local Factors The TRIVI Provides Data to Select Projects for IVIPO and • ZT,ra,�n�s�portation Plan Hiera cahay Development(LAND Seven Scenario lloundati'ons .. Possible Scenarios Constrained By Right (Zoning) Community Moderate Plan(Future Land Use Map) J Preferred Anchors and Scenario Aspirational Mainstays (Aspirational) *The Imagine 2045 effort involves both the Durham Chapel Hill Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization and the Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization. Overall,40 cities,towns,and counties are present in the modeled area.