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Home My WebLink About2016 Annual Report of the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) PAF EARL MCKEE,CHAIR Orange County Board of Commissioners iz -52 MARKDOROSIN,VICE CHAIR Post Office Box 8181 MIA BUR 200 South Cameron Street BARRYJACOBS COBS BERNAD=EPEL/SS/ER Hillsborough, North Carolina 27278 RENEE PR/CE Ati PENNYR/CH March 2, 2016 Pam Hemminger, Mayor Donna Coffey, Chair Town of Chapel Hill Orange County Board of Education 405 Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd. 200 E. King Street Chapel Hill,NC 27514 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Lydia Lavelle, Mayor James Barrett, Chair Town of Carrboro Chapel Hill-Carrboro Board of Education 301 W. Main Street 750 Merritt Mill Road Carrboro,NC 27510 Chapel Hill,NC 27516 Tom Stevens, Mayor Town of Hillsborough P.O. Box 429 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Subject: Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)Annual Report Dear Sir or Madam: This letter is to update you on the status of the 2016 Annual SAPFOTAC Report. In accordance with the SAPFO Memoranda of Understanding(MOU), the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) approved the November 13, 2015 actual membership and capacity numbers for Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill— Carrboro City Schools at its meeting on December 7, 2015. The SAPFOTAC, comprised of representatives of both school systems and the Planning Directors of the County and Towns has produced the 2016 Annual Report. As per the SAPFO MOU,the annual technical report contains information on Level of Service, Building Capacity, Membership Date, Capital Investment Plan, Student Membership Projection Methodology, Student Membership Projections, Student Membership Growth Rate, Student/Housing Generation Rate, and the SAPFO Process: Enclosed for your use are copies of the 2016 Executive Summary and the March 1, 2016 BOCC meeting agenda item abstract when the BOCC received the draft report. The full draft SAPFOTAC report is available on the Orange County Planning Department website in the Current Interest Projects section at the following link: http://www.co.orange.nc.us/planning/SpecialProjects.asp W 41W.ORANGECOUNTYNC.GOV PROTECTING AND PRESERVING-PEOPLE,RESOURCES, QUALITY OF LIFE ORANGE COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA- YOU COUNT.I (919)245-2130• FAX(919)644-0246 Page 2 The 2016 Annual SAPFOTAC Report is scheduled to be certified by the BOCC at a regular meeting in May 2016. Therefore, if you have any comments pertaining to the report,please forward them to Craig N. Benedict, Planning Director,no later than 5:00 p.m. on April 4,2016. Mr. Benedict can be reached by phone at(919) 245-2592 or by e-mail at cbenedictnoran eg countync.gov. Any comments received will be part of our agenda package in May. Please share this information and the 2016 SAPFOTAC report with your respective boards. Sincerely, C,464A Earl McKee, Chair Orange County Board of Commissioners Enclosures cc: Board of County Commissioners Bonnie Hammersley, Orange County Manager Travis Myren, Deputy Orange County Manager Roger L. Stancil, Manager, Town of Chapel Hill David Andrews,Manager, Town of Carrboro Eric Peterson, Manager, Town of Hillsborough Tom Forcella, Superintendent, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Todd Wirt, Superintendent, Orange County Schools Todd LoFrese,Assistant Superintendent for Support Services, Chapel Hill—Carrboro City Schools Catherine Mau, Coordinator for Student Enrollment, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Patrick Abele, Chief Operations Officer Craig Benedict, Planning Director, Orange County Mary Jane Nirdlinger, Planning and Sustainability Executive Director, Town of Chapel Hill Margaret Hauth, Planning Director, Town of Hillsborough Trish McGuire, Planning Director, Town of Carrboro WWW ORANGECOUNTYNC.GOV PROTECTING AND PRESERVING-PEOPLE,RESOURCES, QUALITY OF LIFE ORANGE COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA- YOU COUNT! (919)245-2130• FAX(919)644-0246 2016 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service....................................................................(No Change)........Pg. I Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Elementary 105% 105% Middle 107% 107% High 110% 110% B. Building Capacity and Membership..................................(Change)..............Pg. 2 Chapel HiltlCarrboro Orange County School District School District Capacity Membership Increase from Capacity Membership Increase from Prior Year Prior Year Elementary 5829 5501 (40) 3694 3318 59 Middle 2944 2844 17 2166 1739 (23) High 1 3875 3701 (29) 2439 2469 (33) C. Membership Date—November 15.......................................(No Change)........Pg.17 II. Annual Update to SAPFO System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) ...........................................(No Change)........Pg. 18 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology.................(No Change)........Pg. 19 The average of 3,S,and 10 year history/cohort survival,linear and arithmetic projection models. C. Student Membership Projections.......................................(Change)..............Pg. 30 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2015-16 School Year—Chapel Hi1UCarrboro City Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2015-2016 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An'L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual. Year Projection Made for 2015-16 Membership Actual 2015 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 Membership Elementary 5501 5752 H251 5921 H420 5764 H263 5748 H247 5606 H105 Middle 2844 2951 H107 2949 H105 2972 H128 2947 H103 2895 H51 High 3701 3911 H210 3937 H236 3910 H2O9 3825 1 H124 3742 H41 i Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2015-16 School Year—Orange County Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2015-2016 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) Year Projection Made for 2015-16 Membership Actual 2015 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 Membership Elementa 3318 3617 H299 3649 H331 3574 H256 3555 H237 3285 L33 Middle 1739 1846 H107 1829 H90 1777 H38 1805 H66 1751 H12 High 2469 2375 L94 2379 1 L90 2359 1,110 2411 L58 2510 H41 D. Student Membership Growth Rate....................................(Change)..............Pg. 39 Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over Next 10 Years Chapel Hilb'Carrboro Orange County School District School District Year Projection 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Made: Elementary 1.59% 1.18% 1.44% 111% 0.92% 16% 1.31% 1.30% 0.55% 0.80% Middle 1.94% 1.59% 1.58% 115% 0.82% 2.01% 164% 1.42% 0.09% 0.67% High 1.73% 1.60% 1.27% 1.22% 0.93% 1.61% 143% 1.35% 0.39% 0.56% E. Student/Housing Generation Rate..................................(No Change)........Pg. 42 SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS (based on future year Student Membership Projections) CHAPEL HILLICARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105%LOS standard(current LOS is 94.4%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, but remain positive (average—0.92%per year compared to 1.7%over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional elementary school in the 10 year projection period. Last year's projections showed a need in 2023-24. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard(current LOS is 96.6%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, but remain positive (average—0.82% compared to an average of 1.4%over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional middle school in the 10 year projection period. Last year's projections showed a need in 2023-24. ii High School Level A. Does not currently exceed the 110%LOS standard (current LOS is 95.5%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase over the next 10 years (average—0.93%compared to 0.79%over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need to expand Carrboro High School from the initial capacity of 800 students to the ultimate capacity of 1,200 students in the 10 year projection period. ORANGE COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105%LOS standard(current LOS is 89.8%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected remain the same over the next 10 years (average—0.80%compared to 0.80%over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10 year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard(current LOS is 80.3%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease, but remain positive over the next 10 years (average—0.67%compared to 1.04%over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10 year projection period. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed 110%LOS standard(current LOS is 101.2%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease, but remain positive over the next 10 years (average—0.56%compared to 1.99%over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need to expand Cedar Ridge High School from the initial capacity of 1,000 students to 1,500 students in the ten year projection period. Last year's projections showed a need in 2022-23. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) student projections illustrate when the adopted level of service capacities are forecasted to be met and/or exceeded in anticipation of CIP planning and the construction of a new school. However, as is being identified by both school districts, a new trend is emerging to renovate and expand existing facilities to address school capacity needs in a more feasible way. As this trend continues, additional capacity resulting from school renovations and expansions will be added to the projection models in stages, once funding is approved,versus the addition of greater capacity when a new school is constructed and completed. The renovation and expansion to existing facilities may delay construction of new schools further into the future. This process will pose some challenges to SAPFO compared to the existing process which indicates in advance when a completely new school is needed.Decisions on the timing of reconstruction funding would be indirectly linked to the SAPFO model. iii