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Agenda - 03-01-2016 - 6-f - Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) – Receipt and Transmittal of 2016 Annual Technical Advisory Committee Report
1 ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: March 1, 2016 Action Agenda Item No. 6-f SUBJECT: Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) — Receipt and Transmittal of 2016 Annual Technical Advisory Committee Report DEPARTMENT: Planning & Inspections ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: 1. SAPFO Partners Transmittal Letter Ashley Moncado, 919-245-2589 2. Draft 2016 SAPFOTAC Annual Report Craig Benedict, 919-245-2592 and Larger Scale Projection Worksheets PURPOSE: To receive the 2016 Annual Report of the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and transmit it to the SAPFO partners for comments before certification in May. BACKGROUND: 1. Annual Report Each year, since 2004, the SAPFOTAC Report is updated to reflect actual changing conditions of student membership and school capacity. This information is analyzed and used to project future school construction needs based on adopted levels of service standards. There are two steps to the full report. The first part (Student Membership and Capacity) is certified in the fall and then this full report, in the following spring, is to keep the SAPFO system calibrated. At the December 7, 2015 Board of County Commissioners meeting, the Board approved the November 13, 2015 actual membership and capacity numbers (i.e. first part) for both Orange County Schools (OCS) and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS). A draft of the full annual SAPFOTAC Report is complete and has been reviewed by the SAPFOTAC members. 2. SAPFOTAC The SAPFOTAC, comprised of representatives of both school systems and the Planning Directors of the County and Towns, is tasked to produce an annual report for the governing boards of each SAPFO partner outlining changes in actual membership, capacity, student projections, and their collective impacts on the Capital Investment Plan (CIP) and the future issuance of Certificates of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS). Orange County's Planning Staff compiles the report, holds a meeting discussing the various aspects, and then prepares a draft report, which is reviewed by the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee. 2 3. Membership Data CHCCS total decreased from the previous year: 86 students (40) Elementary School (17) Middle School (29) High School OCS total increase from the previous year: 3 students 59 Elementary School (23) Middle School (33) High School ( )denotes decrease 4. Capacity Data There were no changes to school capacities this year for Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools. 5. Capacity Information SAPFO vs. DPI The SAPFO is a local ordinance, independent of State Department of Public Instruction (DPI) projections and rules regarding class size. The SAPFO, for instance, does not count temporary modular classrooms as fulfilling the capacity level of service outlined in the SAPFO interlocal Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). The MOU requires `bricks and mortar' instead of temporary facilities and also requires its own set of future student projections to identify long-term capital school construction needs. However, the County did phase in the smaller class size in previous years that decreased capacity. Decisions will have to be made if new discussions at the state level create any class size changes that should or should not be reflected in the County's SAPFO. This year, CHCCS and OCS did not exceed the adopted levels of service established in the SAPFO at this time nor do projections show a potential need at the elementary, middle, and high school levels within the 10-year planning period. 6. Student Projection Analysis CHCCS Student membership projections show a mix of increases and decreases at all levels within the 10-year planning period. Projections are shown on page 38 of the report. OCS Student membership projections show a mix of increases and decreases at all levels within the 10-year planning period. Projections are shown on page 37 of the report. 7. School Capacity CIP Needs Analysis CHCCS Projected needs: Elementary School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years Middle School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years High School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years 3 OCS Projected needs: Elementary School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years Middle School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years High School Projections show no needs in the next 10 years NOTE: School capacity improvements as part of a renovation/upgrade will be reviewed as necessary by the BOCC and school districts. The SAPFOTAC report notes that there are a significant number of approved, but undeveloped lots within the portion of the City of Mebane that lies within the Orange County Schools District. New construction activity, that had slowed in recent years due to the economic downturn, has seen an increase. Because the City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO at this time, CAPS are not required by the local government to be issued prior to development approvals. However, once students generated from Mebane development actually enter the school system, faster enrollment increases would affect projections and may identify CIP needs within 10 years, especially since the Town of Hillsborough is similarly in a residential growth mode. 8. Student Generation Rates In recent years, the SAPFOTAC discussed the need for further evaluation of the adopted Student Generation Rates and the impacts the number of bedrooms a particular housing type may have on student generation rates. Orange County entered into a contract with TischlerBise to update the student generation rate analysis after funding for the study was approved. The updated student generation rates were approved on May 19, 2015 and are shown in Attachment II.E.1 on page 44 of the report. Updated rates began to be used for CAPS issuances in the fall of 2015 and are based on an inventory of recently built units from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013. 9. Access to Full Report The draft SAPFOTAC report will be posted on the Orange County Planning Department's web site. A letter and the Executive Summary of the report will be sent to all SAPFO partners after this BOCC meeting advising them of the availability of the draft report and inviting comment. It is anticipated the draft 2016 SAPFOTAC report will be brought back to the BOCC for certification at the May 5, 2016 regular meeting. 10. Additional Information Over the last year, the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee and Orange County staff have reviewed and analyzed the number of proposed residential projects planned throughout the County. Many of these projects are in various stages of review and approval. In some cases, sole review authority lies with the jurisdiction so they are not necessarily submitted for review by the planning partners. The impacts on schools are not typically addressed by the municipality since local school funding occurs only at the County level. Nonetheless, residential dominant projects affect the appropriation of County funds available to all County services and therein indirectly affect municipal use of countywide services such as solid waste, health, library, aging, etc. There are two primary parts to the SAPFO system. The first part, Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS), is the testing and gaging of the student generation rate (SGR) from development projects against available capacity within a school. The second part, student projections and capacity needs assessment, is the tracking of historical enrollment and the projection of future student enrollment against existing capacity at a certain school level. This part is not directly related to a development project, but a 4 current year outcome of how many children actually `show up' in a school year. This includes non-new project related students from existing housing stock. The purpose of explaining these two parts of the SAPFO system is to illustrate how projects can be approved as part of the CAPS system when capacity is available yet aberration in actual enrollment can cause future year projections to accelerate capital needs dramatically. The 10-year student projections developed for the SAPFO Annual Report forecast future school needs based on current student membership numbers and historic growth rates derived by the five projection models. The process accounting for students once they are actually enrolled in the school system emphasizes a delay that exists from the time a residential development is approved and developed to when students begin to enter the system. For example, the significant proposed residential growth that has occurred in the recent past within Mebane's jurisdiction has yet to be seen with OCS student membership numbers and fully entered into the historically based projection methods. Orange County staff will continue to work with the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee and the planning partners to monitor future residential development throughout Orange County. In summary, although the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee report does not show immediate capital needs, the development approvals in both school districts will, after a normal lag, accelerate capital school needs and renovations based on localized student increases at specific schools. These local impacts will have to be analyzed by the school district to determine the best method to resolve new demands (i.e. redistricting, renovation, new school construction, etc.). FINANCIAL IMPACT: Current 10-year student growth projections show no future needs for additional schools in the CHCCS District and OCS District. SOCIAL JUSTICE IMPACT: The following Orange County Social Justice Goal is applicable to this agenda item: • GOAL: ENSURE ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY The creation and preservation of infrastructure, policies, programs and funding necessary for residents to provide shelter, food, clothing and medical care for themselves and their dependents. RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends the Board: 1. Receive the 2016 SAPFOTAC Annual Report; and 2. Authorize the Chair to sign the transmittal letter to SAPFO partners contained in Attachment 1. Attachment 1 5 BOCC Letterhead March 2, 2016 Pam Hemminger, Mayor Donna Coffey, Chair Town of Chapel Hill Orange County Board of Education 405 Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd. 200 E. King Street Chapel Hill,NC 27514 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Lydia Lavelle, Mayor James Barrett, Chair Town of Carrboro Chapel Hill-Carrboro Board of Education 301 W. Main Street 750 Merritt Mill Road Carrboro,NC 27510 Chapel Hill,NC 27516 Tom Stevens, Mayor Town of Hillsborough P.O. Box 429 Hillsborough,NC 27278 Subject: Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) Annual Report Dear Sir or Madam: This letter is to update you on the status of the 2016 Annual SAPFOTAC Report. In accordance with the SAPFO Memoranda of Understanding (MOU), the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) approved the November 13, 2015 actual membership and capacity numbers for Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill— Carrboro City Schools at its meeting on December 7, 2015. The SAPFOTAC, comprised of representatives of both school systems and the Planning Directors of the County and Towns has produced the 2016 Annual Report. As per the SAPFO MOU, the annual technical report contains information on Level of Service, Building Capacity, Membership Date, Capital Investment Plan, Student Membership Projection Methodology, Student Membership Projections, Student Membership Growth Rate, Student/Housing Generation Rate, and the SAPFO Process. Enclosed for your use are copies of the 2016 Executive Summary and the March 1, 2016 BOCC meeting agenda item abstract when the BOCC received the draft report. The full draft SAPFOTAC report is available on the Orange County Planning Department website in the Current Interest Projects section at the following link: http://www.co.orange.nc.us/planning/SpecialProjects.asp The 2016 Annual SAPFOTAC Report is scheduled to be certified by the BOCC at a regular meeting in May 2016. Therefore, if you have any comments pertaining to the report,please forward them to Craig N. Benedict, Planning Director, no later than 5:00 p.m. on April 4, 2016. Mr. Benedict can be reached by phone at(919) 245-2592 or by e-mail at cbenedict @orangecountync.gov. Any comments received will be part of our agenda package in May. 6 Please share this information and the 2016 SAPFOTAC report with your respective boards. Sincerely, Earl McKee Chair Enclosures cc: Board of County Commissioners Bonnie Hammersley, Orange County Manager Travis Myren, Deputy Orange County Manager Roger L. Stancil, Manager, Town of Chapel Hill David Andrews, Manager, Town of Carrboro Eric Peterson, Manager, Town of Hillsborough Tom Forcella, Superintendent, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Todd Wirt, Superintendent, Orange County Schools Todd LoFrese, Assistant Superintendent for Support Services, Chapel Hill—Carrboro City Schools Catherine Mau, Coordinator for Student Enrollment, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Patrick Abele, Chief Operations Officer Craig Benedict, Planning Director, Orange County Mary Jane Nirdlinger, Planning and Sustainability Executive Director, Town of Chapel Hill Margaret Hauth, Planning Director, Town of Hillsborough Trish McGuire, Planning Director, Town of Carrboro 7 Attachment 2 ORANGE COUNTY, NC SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE PREPARED BY A STAFF COMMITTEE: PLANNING DIRECTORS, SCHOOL REPRESENTATIVES, TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE (SAPFOTAC) (PURSUANT TO PROVISIONS OF A MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING ADOPTED IN 2002 & 2003) (ORDINANCES ADOPTED IN JULY 2003) Annual Report 2016 (BASED ON NOVEMBER 2015 DATA) CERTIFIED BY THE BOCC ON MAY X, 2016 8 Table of Contents 2016 SAPF 'TAC Executive Su ary i Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners v Planning Directors/School eprese tatives Technical Advisory Co ittee..............................................................vi I. ase a ora u o ersta i g A. Level of Service 1 B. Building Capacity and Membership 2 Attachment I.B.1 —Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2014-15) 5 Attachment I.B.2—Chapel Hill/Carrboro School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2014-15) 8 Attachment I.B.3—Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2015-16) 11 Attachment I.B.4—Chapel Hill/Carrboro School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2015-16) 14 C. Membership Date 17 IL Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System 18 A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) 18 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology 19 Attachment II.B.I—Student Membership Projection Descriptions 21 Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2014-15) 22 Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2015-16) 26 C. Student Membership Projections 30 Attachment II.C.1 —Orange County Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2014-15) 35 Attachment II.C.2—Chapel Hill/Carrboro Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High)(2014-15) 36 Attachment II.C.3—Orange County Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2015-16) 37 Attachment II.C.4—Chapel Hill/Carrboro Student Projections(Elementary,Middle,&High) (2015-16) 38 D. Student Membership Growth Rate 39 Attachment II.D.1 —Orange County and Chapel Hill/Carrboro Student Growth Rates (Chart dates from 2015-2025 based on 11/14/14 membership numbers) (2014-15) 40 Attachment II.D.2—Orange County and Chapel Hill/Carrboro Student Growth Rates (Chart dates from 2016-2026 based on 11/13/15 membership numbers) (2015-16) 41 E. Student/Housing Generation Rate 42 Attachment II.E.1 —Current Student Generation Rates(2015) 44 III. Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process 45 A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (Process 1) 45 Attachment III.A.1 —Process 1 Capital Improvement Plan 46 B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Update (Process 2) 47 Attachment III.B.1 —Process 2 Certificate of Adequate Public Schools(CAPS)Allocation 48 9 2016 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service (No Change) Pg. 1 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Elementary 105% 105% Middle 107% 107% High 110% 110% B. Building Capacity and Membership (Change) Pg. 2 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Capacity Membership Increase from Capacity Membership Increase from Prior Year Prior Year Elementary 5829 5501 (40) 3694 3318 59 Middle 2944 2844 (17) 2166 1739 (23) High 3875 3701 (29) 2439 2469 (33) C. Membership Date—November 15 (No Change) Pg.1 7 II. Annual Update to SAPFO System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (No Change) Pg. 18 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology (No Change) Pg. 19 The average of 3, 5, and 10 year history/cohort survival, linear and arithmetic projection models. C. Student Membership Projections (Change) Pg. 30 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2015-16 School Year— Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2015-2016 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) Year Projection Made for 2015-16 Membership Actual 2015 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 Membership Elementary 5501 5752 H251 5921 H420 5764 H263 5748 H247 5606 H105 Middle 2844 2951 H107 2949 H105 2972 H128 2947 H103 2895 H51 High 3701 3911 H210 3937 H236 3910 H209 3825 H124 3742 H41 1 10 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2015-16 School Year- Orange County Schools (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2015-2016 in that given year.The second column for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) Year Projection Made for 2015-16 Membership Actual 2015 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 Membership Elementary 3318 3617 H299 3649 H331 3574 H256 3555 H237 3285 L33 Middle 1739 1846 H107 1829 H90 1777 H38 1805 H66 1751 H12 High 2469 2375 L94 2379 L90 2359 L110 2411 L58 2510 H41 D. Student Membership Growth Rate (Change) Pg. 39 Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over Next 10 Years Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County School District School District Year Projection 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Made: Elementary 1.59% 1.18% 1.44% 1.11% 0.92% 1.6% 1.31% 1.30% 0.55% 0.80% Middle 1.94% 1.59% 1.58% 1.15% 0.82% 2.01% 1.64% 1.42% 0.09% 0.67% High 1.73% 1.60% 1.27% 1.22% 0.93% 1.61% 1.43% 1.35% 0.39% 0.56% E. Student/Housing Generation Rate (No Change) Pg. 42 SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS (based on future year Student Membership Projections) CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 94.4%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, but remain positive (average -0.92%per year compared to 1.7% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional elementary school in the 10 year projection period. Last year's projections showed a need in 2023-24. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard (current LOS is 96.6%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, but remain positive (average-0.82% compared to an average of 1.4% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional middle school in the 10 year projection period. Last year's projections showed a need in 2023-24. ii 11 High School Level A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard (current LOS is 95.5%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase over the next 10 years (average —0.93% compared to 0.79% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need to expand Carrboro High School from the initial capacity of 800 students to the ultimate capacity of 1,200 students in the 10 year projection period. ORANGE COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard (current LOS is 89.8%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected remain the same over the next 10 years (average —0.80% compared to 0.80% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10 year projection period. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard (current LOS is 80.3%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease, but remain positive over the next 10 years (average —0.67% compared to 1.04% over the past 10 years). C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10 year projection period. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 101.2%). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease, but remain positive over the next 10 years (average —0.56% compared to 1.99% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need to expand Cedar Ridge High School from the initial capacity of 1,000 students to 1,500 students in the ten year projection period. Last year's projections showed a need in 2022-23. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) student projections illustrate when the adopted level of service capacities are forecasted to be met and/or exceeded in anticipation of CIP planning and the construction of a new school. However, as is being identified by both school districts, a new trend is emerging to renovate and expand existing facilities to address school capacity needs in a more feasible way. As this trend continues, additional capacity resulting from school renovations and expansions will be added to the projection models in stages, once funding is approved, versus the addition of greater capacity when a new school is constructed and completed. The renovation and expansion to existing facilities may delay construction of new schools further into the future. This process will pose some challenges to SAPFO compared to the existing process which indicates in advance when a completely new school is needed. Decisions on the timing of reconstruction funding would be indirectly linked to the SAPFO model. iii 12 Orange County, NC School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Introduction The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance and its Memorandum of Understanding are ordinances and agreements, respectively. Supporting documents are anticipated to be dynamic to incorporate the annual changing conditions of membership, capacity and student projections that may affect School Capital Investment Plan (CIP) timing. This formal annual report will be forthcoming to all of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners each year as new information is available. This updated information is used in the schools capital needs process of the Capital Investment Plan(Process 1) and within elements of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) spreadsheet system(Process 2). This report and any comments from the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners will be considered in the first half of each year by the Board of County Commissioners at a regular or special meeting. The various elements of the report are then "certified" and formally considered in the process of the upcoming Capital Investment Plan. The Certificate of Adequate Public Schools system is updated after November 15 when data is received from the school districts with actual membership and pre-certified capacity(i.e. CIP capacity or prior "joint action" capacity changes). The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance and Memorandum of Understanding have dynamic aspects. The derivation of the baseline and update to the variables will continue in the future as a variety of school related issues are fine-tuned by technical and policy groups. The primary facet of this report includes the creation of mathematical projections for student memberships by school levels (Elementary, Middle and High) and by School Districts (Chapel Hill/Carrboro and Orange County). This information is found in Section II, Subsections B, C, D, and E. In summary, this report serves as an update to the dynamic conditions of student membership and school capacity which affect future projected needs considered in Capital Investment Planning. Interested parties may make their comments known to the Board of County Commissioners prior to their review of the report and school CIP completion or ask questions of the SAPFOTAC members. iv 13 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners ANNUAL REPORT AS OUTLINED IN Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Memorandum of Understanding (Schools APFO MOU) SECTION ld RESPECTFULLY SUBMITTED TO SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE PARTNERS Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District School APFO School APFO Board of County Commissioners Board of County Commissioners Carrboro Board of Aldermen Hillsborough Town Council Chapel Hill Town Council Chapel Hill/Carrboro School Board Orange County School Board v 14 Planning Directors/School Representatives Technical Advisory Committee (aka SAPFOTAC) Town of Carrboro Trish McGuire, Planning Director 301 West Main Street Carrboro, NC 27510 Town of Chapel Hill Mary Jane Nirdlinger, Planning and Sustainability Executive Director 405 Martin Luther King, Jr. Blvd. Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514 Town of Hillsborough Margaret Hauth, Planning Director P.O. Box 429 Hillsborough, NC 27278 Orange County Planning Department Craig Benedict, Planning Director and Ashley Moncado, Special Projects Planner and Gary Donaldson, Director of Finance and Administrative Services 131 W. Margaret Lane P.O. Box 8181 Hillsborough, NC 27278 Orange County School District Todd Wirt, Superintendent Patrick Abele, Chief Operations Officer 200 E. King Street Hillsborough, NC 27278 Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District Todd LoFrese,Assistant Superintendent for Support Services and Catherine Mau, Coordinator of Student Enrollment 750 Merritt Mill Road Chapel Hill, NC 2751 vi 15 I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A.Level of Service 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—Change can only be effectuated by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)by all School APFO partners. 2. Definition —Level of Service (LOS)means the amount(level) of students that can be accommodated (serviced) at a certain school system grade group [i.e., Elementary level(K-5), Middle Level(6-8), High School Level(9-12)]. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District Elementary Middle High School Elementary Middle High School 105% 107% 110% 105% 107% 110% 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District These standards are acceptable at this time. These standards are acceptable at this time. 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District No change from above standard. No change from above standard. 1 16 Section I B. Building Capacity and Membership 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)will receive requested changes that are CIP related and adopted in the prior year. CIP capacity changes will be updated along with actual membership received in November of each year. Other changes will be sent to a `Joint Action Committee' of the BOCC and Board of Education, as noted in the MOU, who will make recommendations and forward changes (on the specific forms with justification) to the full Board of County Commissioners for review and action. These non- CIP changes would be updated in the upcoming November CAPS system recalibration and included in the SAPFOTAC report. 2. Definition — "For purposes of this Memorandum, "building capacity" will be determined by reference to State guidelines and the School District guidelines (consistent with CIP School Construction Guidelines/policies developed by the School District and the Board of County Commissioners) and will be determined by a joint action of the School Board and the Orange County Board of Commissioners. As used herein the term "building capacity" refers to permanent buildings. Mobile classrooms and other temporary student accommodating classroom spaces are not permanent buildings and may not be counted in determining the school districts building capacity." 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District The original certified capacity for each of the The original certified capacity for each of the schools was certified by the respective schools was certified by the respective superintendent and incorporated in the superintendent and incorporated in the initialization of the CAPS system(Chapel Hill initialization of the CAPS system(Orange County Carrboro School District April 29, 2002 - Base) School District April 30, 2002 - Base) Capacity changes were made each year as follows: Capacity changes were made each year as follows: 2003: Increase of 619 at Rashkis Elementary. 2003: No net increase in capacity at Elementary 2004: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High level. No changes at Middle School level. School levels. Increase of 1,000 at Cedar Ridge High School. 2005: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2004: No net increase in capacity at Elementary 2 17 Section I School levels. level. No changes at Middle or High School 2006: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High levels. School levels. 2005: An increase in capacity of 100 at 2007: An increase of 800 at the High School level Hillsborough Elementary with the completion of with the opening of Carrboro High School. renovations. 2008: An increase of 323 at the Elementary 2006: An increase in capacity of 700 at the School level due to the opening of Morris Grove Middle School level with the completion of Elementary School and the implementation of the Gravelly Hill Middle School and an increase of 15 1:21 class size ratio in grades K-3 at the High School level with the temporary 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High location of Partnership Academy Alternative School levels. School. An increase of 2 at the Elementary level 2010: An increase in capacity of 40 students at the due to a change in the capacity calculation for each High School level with Phoenix Academy High grade at each school. School becoming official high school within the 2007: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High district School levels. 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2008: A decrease of 228 at the Elementary School School levels. level due to the implementation of the 1:21 class 2012: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High size ratio in grades K-3 and an increase of 25 at the School levels. High School level with the completion of the new 2013: An increase in capacity of 585 students due Partnership Academy Alternative School. to the opening of Northside Elementary School. 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2014: An increase in capacity of 104 students due School levels. to the opening of the Culbreth Middle School 2010: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High addition. School levels. 2015: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. School levels. 2012: No changes at Elementary or Middle School levels. A decrease of 119 at High School level as a result of a N.C. Department of Public Instruction (DPI) study. 2013: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High 3 18 Section I School levels. 2014: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 2015: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a system to calculate capacity. Any changes year to system to calculate capacity. Any changes year to year will be monitored, reviewed, and recorded by year will be monitored, reviewed, and recorded by the SAPFOTAC on approved forms distributed to the SAPFOTAC on approved forms distributed to SAPFO partners and certified upon approval by SAPFO partners and certified upon approval by the Board of County Commissioners each year. the Board of County Commissioners each year. The requested 2015-16 capacity is noted on The requested 2015-16 capacity is noted on Attachment I.B.4 Attachment I.B.3 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District Accept school capacities at all levels, as reported Accept school capacities at all levels, as reported by CHCCS and shown in Attachment I.B.4. by OCS and shown in Attachment I.B.3. 4 19 Section I Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2014-15) page 1 of 3 School APFO Capacity, Meariboirr,hisi and Charge Request Form 00 'str'et: ()rang e Clr)ollly Schools "rear: November 14,2014-Noveelber 13,2015 apac ty an; r0 ors" `p u m ta ate: N(weryll)er 14,2014 211111-21111 .2011-2012 2(/12-21113 20134014 2111444115 F kmeffl tnrt .1%11114,111146 11+,.,optes14,,(1 14.1„6ivi(sled 1111,,(114..stoil Nivicillocts1111, Scliorcot Pvel )30'11y 1"411)6:11,y 1'.111w11., t^,i,Sc1/111#1i', 70,812 3f4,1 565 !i63 565 5(55 591 52,492 415 455 45 455 455 305 1:1'441.90;01)96E‘ 64,316 497 492 497 497 497 426 ()IfiC‘le,l3ff4910 74,t)16 544 544 5441 544 $44 44 1filUbei*ith, 51,106 411 471 471, 471 471 457 Nowilluila 1.00,164 58(i 586 386 586 386 0)4 P8019.48„ 85282 $76 576 576 576 576 400 ":"0 498,188 3,694 Special Nota(e): the Ntivetultter 15„21)02 basc year the board accepted the attperiittoutertt,ccititied cititacitics as pito of the School tht fitak liorce review anti 2003 Planners and School Reptesentative'latettritcal Advoty Corttnuttee Report Vilest capacities will tcrttain ttliesitive until chattget1 by(I)(lie School(11t tti(2)an arnett(le(1 YCSKfl ol Iiiia limn that tttlicd by the liet("C 2 ttutt to Novonber I Sth ttliting on tt Saturday this year,menabeiship and capacity numbers tattet be pided titr Itriday,Novernbet 14,2014. Justification: Capacity Certification: 1111 leL(- (le Superintendent Date BOCC Chair Date Membership Certification: mist," Id Lj M Supenntendent Date BOCC Chair Date 5 20 Section I Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2014-15) page 2 of 3 „ , School APFO Cal3acily„ Membrsheip and Change Ite o: cittst Form , 'c ool Distr ct: Orange County Schools AP' ear: November 14,2014-November 13,2015 'apacity and embers -p 'uhnfittal Date: November 14,2014 , , , 21)1 tt-2411 I 21)11-2(112 2012-21113 2111.4-2114 2014.21415 , ()rile Square . „Iirstitieiriail ,., 'Ns1,..11 1 1 IteririesIerl 11e(piested 11e/pieste(1 liteqtresterl lit"4111VS(01,1 1,,(,011101,,# Nleinii)ei%liar l'a ."4' ("ipity ('`,xteacitr Cli:acilv f",(1,t^lettv 136,000 140 740 70 740 7401 614 "C';Wiffliair'r44,4 1 107,62( 726! 726, 726 726 at,Pli,11$'''4"ligi,„ 123,000 ' ''''''A"g) 700 , 700 700 ,77200(51 ' '649$°8 , ' 1 366,620 ' ,';1"$6 2,166 2,16 2,166 ' 1'(4 1,762 Special Note(s): I.For the Novetnilpt I.5,2002 base year the board accepted the sul)crintandent.centitied capacities as part a)f the Schaal Ftteitities changed by(1)the School ClP or(2)an titnextdet1 versitot of this forrn that is cettitied by tile it((",t(" 2 L)ie to November 150'1 failing on a Sattliday this Justification: Capacity Certification: 4 'Cf'L.‘"'"'"'"*"'""'"'"'m i 4 , acerintendent Date BOCC Chair Date Membership Certification: l' iitei:44,4",,,,,,-, ;'i it lett' 4 / Superintendent Date BOCC Chair Date 6 21 Section I Attachment I.B.1 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,& High) (2014-15) page 3 of 3 School APFO Capsocity, Memits,rsh,ip stud,Chartgle Request,Fortro c 00 District: ()range County Stook A i oar: November 14,2014 November.111,2015 -Capacity-a-n-a-Niembership u 'fta ate: November 14,2014 st 02, 2(1114.21N 11 2114-2()12 2012-2f)I.3 20134014 21)14-2015 lftgh„Scil)()1 qusted Itet1041,s6.31 Itotiwlesteti Iv ectd 11..teolNestell Viembersilip Cilparity Carracily i'angkeity •rififle;:,";"-"/-;;,/,' 213,509 '018 1,5181 1,399' ' 11,39,9 -3,330 fl ,fati;33,iiiite 206,900 1,00 1,000 , 1/i000 1,000 1000 1,134 „ritritieriiltiff%', 6,600 40 40 Ag. 40 40 '30 427,009 2,558 4; 39 2,439 • Special Note(s): Fol the Noveinbei 15,2002 base,year the board aceellie41 fk supetitaentithat-eeritified catr■oeities ras part of the S(.;bool.Vaeilitien Sch(101(1,399)is based on a c,apacity analysis m(.1 liteilities study corrIpleted by Illel)eimItmetit of Pullie ltmtilletiort m Augtrst 2012.3.Due t November Justification: Capacity Certification: , 44- „ Superintendent Date I BOCC Chair Date Membership Certification: feet- Superintendent Date BOCC Chair Date 7 22 Section I Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill/Carrboro School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2014-15) page 1 of 3 1"1111111111SthitiatiAPPOICataitilt9UMetlithee010140Wah**CRosigostrorri . ... . , School District: Chapel 14111-Carrhoro City Schools . .. ... . SAPP()CAPS Year: 'November 14,2014-November 13,2015 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 14,2014 ,....,. .... ... ,..,•. ... . .211.144,2021.'" 21.11.12022, !2(112,;21124,,"?".""11111.5421.414..",• "261.44101.15 ",..i..'44,4, ,..:..4..,...4.1 .5447919trithip„! '''''''' ":4"""r:!!'! '''''.T.4:411'! ittiptestitd. .114,001401494 2109494.04/..44.096914414-"1,1991.149494. ""4'... ."4...."'!.!!'"'' 4444111.094394,... 47,9496111*."-,...,Ctiptity.",, 4,1911,94114:',A,',..."kiiibi .........4.7.614,9910 ......,i,kaag. '1..,-,sC,11,99.4,y4trt 60832 533 ri ) .:ei 33 •ii...,„11:y00,, 4 , 141aa2!, ... j. ./....,".. Ii.?/.. 5- 41144881004/ .. 66,952 012111" , 448.r4... /,,:j4: 448 1116.14544.1‘fr 1 tg4 56,2991111,11.. . 527 ils, 4,4 527 f#-/,:. ,!,/,:y/, 11111111. 11atifitt‘tOl. 66,6891E210 538 g,'';/1"0")). 538 6416'64.12971 50,76412,11.2 423 0054' Y.tr.:-.;"41 423 k....„/ ..(1AI:,..4 1•11::::, Mali*Sini 95,000 10,14,4ift4 564110/""b9;15.1;11 564 2165111&ir' :•:- ..4 .11,i40#1440.0#0.18 90,221 585%;;I(41t 585, ff' 'f',i4 , 1.444,1454449tbstip 99,500 97971,19 , 0 trg;",;-/- 585 LimMogrg,,mOrgt4, MEINEP : gio/.:. ......:''•!,/,,: 585 K fv-k7.71,Z... ii11011p* 1041041agat 95,72911,15116,-, 585 42/7„41. -' oti 980 tattissitise../i,, 575 //,-,r,s;,, 575 1111M11464414B450M --'" 44556561*5. ' ,-,•110KZ, / ' ,r•• • . /K.,.! EM9fit,,j7•••:.: •A" 52,8961NjtA*i:;. 466Iyy'''''':'/"14i8t:t .466 828,862,5611M, 5,244 51t0041111, 5,829,./;/"',41,111411211,14Z."7„!A Special Note(s);I,For the November 15,2002 base.year the board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities changed by(1)the School C.IP or(2)an amended version of this form that is certified by the 13002.2..Due to November I.5th falling on a Saturday this Justification: Cap city 7ifratiori: / . • v/e - •1 • '' 1 : / /•••••:v(:,,4/("k (d;-)''' ::,/'it" 4,,,,e to!kie-c- 7a/9/,,,,,, Superintendent Date BOCC Chair Date Membership.Cetificatipn: : ISIt il, ,i/69./.,161 (.1,)c)//V e',;(,4,,,P d ' e- Sv - uperintendent Date BOCC Chair Date 8 23 Section I Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill/Carrboro School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2014-15) page 2 of 3 School APFO C nt apacity„ Membership and Change Request For 1 School District: Chapel Hill-Carrhona City Schools _ „.. SAPPO CAPS Year: Noventher 14,2014-November 14,2015 ..„ Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 14,2014 , •., , , , , ,., , 2010-2011 21111-2012 2012-24,113 2013.201,4 20 a4.211115 alattnitorthop Stottare , , , thostifit,tottat „ alidalle Sithatt,1 I,vo atenttested atteattaested 14amatatstatil 1,4eatautsted Itentiesaed ,,000„,e,,,, t veleta:46111 a hptivit,a, li apiiiily i:'ippacilly 'i iiicielly Ctipticitt) scattttal.t,t earl, Science' - t wmg 22,467 A',E'ig'r 9 67010:7;„ 0#"9, 670 174' addition tOtat /41404,411,f4: ' 136,221/ ,,,,,,/zi it i 732 t;//,%/ 0,13'fi 732 "— ,:'7*4 -T 74 Phtflipii ,:- 109,498 '"',/,/,9„! 706' % : ,,/,144 706 Sttith , 1 128,764 g: "//,/,, 732 '/;;;#4; 732 496,950 2,840','',‘ ,/,,//al 2,840 Special Note(s): I For the November 15,2002 base year the hoard accepted the superintendent-eerttfied capacities as part of the School Formates I iru review rrd (l() Plaiiri r md School ReprntaUv i ehrnal Ad ir)(ommillee Repnl hew ap tie wll remain efk lye until changed hy(I)the School CCP or(2)an tunended verston of this 11trrn that rt.certified by the 110C( 2 Due to November I5th 11110Ing on a Saturday this Justification: Ca.acity Cr ifica ion: /14211"--- /2,./^7//(/ ' ol, Superintendent Date BOCC Chair Date M mbership 7rtifica7m ...--, .‘, . tt‘f)./ ''''' 6 16(t, (6,All ( eiroj //)//2'bite- Superintendent Date BOCC Chair Date 9 24 Section I Attachment I.B.2 Chapel Hill/Carrboro School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2014-15) page 3 of 3 School APO Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School bistrict: chapel Flill-Can.bork).City Schools . . , SAPP°CAPS Year November 14,2014-November 13,2015 'Capacity and Membership Submittal bate: November 14,2014 s,1 11,1,0, ''.1111..■24 11 2()i 1-20 1:.,' :f,12.21)1,4, 21143.21414 2014,2015 Nivilllit.t.silipl 111glil Sei141kPi 11,,, 141.'411111e4.14,"(i i4illt!SIVM1 14.011k1V,,101 itt...1,14,,l',1‘,13 14.0111At'Sit".41 1,00,0t,i0 0 Velf01"t"1111,"t.`11 1 4.' (“PlIFIleit". C11.110.1,:il, (,Y,11,i1&'illy ( 'POIrYhMl'iN ('1//21.1,"ii,' SC1401$ V3.14") 148,023 ' ' /-8.0l 800 ';'ell 8001 / / 'in I) / /-/ ■',7:0'4 cfl#101,:lijj1:,,, 241,111 44524C 1,520 IMO 1,520 4010 1 ,*.zi4 tit 51'',II/454404*# 259,869 /10151 1,515 1/5,i5 1,515 IpildwAril(Msv 5,207 /40 401 ,i11) 40 44 , 1 , / 1 , 1 654,2101 .",5,475 3,875 3:1475, 3,875 l': 5 , Y 14 Special Note(e)t i For the NOVCRI)er 15,2002 be year the hoard accepted the mri)enritendent.eertilierl capacities aq pail or the Sehntwl hicilltivi changed by(I)the School CIP or(2)ari amended VerSi().11(Yf this fortil that is certified b),the fir WC 2 Due to November 15th Palling on a Satirdrty this Justification: Ca acity Cerikilfiation: 4'7, CI ' ,,,,, (If,.) ,)((( z:,,,Ae. i/1/1-'kee.--. 1)-111111' Superintendent Date BOCC Chair Date Me bershipCia(tificall,171: .,,/ , , / tid,,-) )1 -,-: 142,(,..,t,,,,i ,o(((,),((,,, i , , , , ,, i.,,,,,,„4, , ,,,,,...._ S rrerintendent Date BOCC Chair Date 10 25 Section I Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle,& High) (2015-16) (page 1 of 3) School APF0 Capacity„ Membership and Change Request form School District: ()range County Schools SAPP°CAPS Year: November 13,2015-NovembeMi4„2016 'Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 13,2015 2911-2012 2012-2013 2013.2014 20142015 2015-2016 ""1"""v ""? "'c Requested Requested Reutiested Reipiesied Requestent "Tt":""s1" INIcathership mutate i'eet ‹""Opticky (.:alpacity ("opacity ("opacity 'C.:opacity 70,812 565//1,4, /%44771 565 '4:.;,:1,,TC:%,,:// /'" 52,492 455 455 64,316 497 ft %0,71A' 74,016 544 544 /sf,(i 471 51,106 471 100,164 586 4/14' 85,282 576 JP 576 498,188 3,694 xim 3,694 Special Note(s): lair the November.15,2002 base year the board accepted the super intendenticertifind capacities as pan a the School Facilities Task FOreC review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report These eapacitivis will remain effective until changed by(I)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this ham that is certified by the 13002 2 Due to November 15th falling on a Sunday this year,meinbership and capacity numbers shall he providect liar Friday,November 13,2015, Justification: Capacity Certification: 1.,;";4/114$"- 7V1///;; S nerinteneent Date BOCC Chair ate Membership Cm77tion: 12,11 -112.-- " Su rintendent Date BOCC Chair Date 11 26 Section I Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2015-16) (page 2 of 3) School APPO Capacity, Membership and Change Request Farm . . . _ . . . . School District: Orange County Schools .... „ SAPP°CAPS Year November 13,2015-November 14,2016 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 13,2015 lw i n ,,.. 2011-2012 21/12-21113 21113-2014 2014-21115 2015-2016 ":""": "'?"3.re Requested keg Healed kennested Ropested liggnested ,""'47414::1 rklembership "c"ffich ''''."'" 4 apaeily ("autne03 11414044114 Ca pock), C apacimv /"""" 'Wfrilr,' A%' 136,000 740 7,,%*,'' ',' '4 740 f/4/e,d' /; 107 620 7 '' ft6 i , • ‘„,,,,„,,,,- '2„, , , 26 ' ' " 7-6 Ør ,0//1,',c"" 123,000 700 ',;' 7141 700 , '/- irlrfe,P3-2,,' 366,6214 2,166 e"' ' '' ,r," 2,166-, ,,,,,J,1111L:::,/,;BE Special Note(s) or the November IS,2002 base year the board accepted the pet intendent.etrtitied capacities as.part i3f the School Facilities changed by(1)the School.CV or l2)an amended veismn of this form that is eertified by ihellOCC 2,..Due to November 15th hilling on a Sunday this year,rnemhership and capacity numheis shall he provided kir Vriday,rtevonher 13,201S Justification: Capacity Certification: \ ,( " ' ) -)i;:j) (A.-,/,,,,,m!' 41(1,4-ii 45 &J /III/4CL ‘1/5- , SuSerintendent ate 80CC Chair at Me77ship crtin.,ton: ) y -,' / 1,1 ''''' i ' ( , , .,,, ,,,,,, ,, tt vf(i,,5 SaA.," ill i Ile' 12. lc 15' Su erintendent Da e 60CC Chair Date 12 27 Section I Attachment I.B.3 Orange County School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, & High) (2015-16) (page 3 of 3) Schaaf APO Cripacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Orange Collnty Seh(rools SAPP°CAPS Year: November 13,2015-November 14,2016 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 13,2015 s 21/11-2012 2012-21113 21113-21/14 2014-2015 21115-21116 111riovool, 111146 S4,144 1,6.410ott4.1 1444.10esle(1 1414,v6,,s14„41 Ii44111es6N1 114.4164.stvtl 1.4,00,1,101 NIlentbersibil) apavil,y (''41(1601y apnehy apatity 213,509 1 518 fr, 011 4 41,0 206,9110 1,000 ,;-(2'(40 1,000 6,600 40 :40 40,//,,Z211/4 /%// 427,6109 2,558J 2,43 JJJ Special Note(s):1 101 the Novenrher li„2002 base yea;the heard accepted the suporntertdent-certitied capacities as part of the School 1 acdttles changed by(1)the School CIP or(2)an amended version of this fbrm t.hat cerittied by the t3(>CC 2 The 2012-201 cnpaeny nunlbers for Orange Ihgh Justification: Capacity Certifirion: t.A////<: Si,terintendent Date BOCC Chair Da e Membership Ce:rtifi ation: te:641‘e tin-I/etc. / Su'ennterldent Date 730CC Chair Date 13 28 Section I Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill/Carrboro School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2015-16) (page 1 of 3) School AFF0 Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools 'SAPP°CAPS Year: November 13,2015-November 14,2016 --olCapacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 13,2015 , '2011-2912 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 '21115-2111h ,„ , Nteraliecyhip "' '41"re 11c1.1 I.1 11,1,cyled Ircirliesivil ltraitcyleil Irciiiicsical 3"1411""1"1 to:fon:awed 1 School Feel ,. '' 4'''( “'"- '' ' ' ' 'I ' ' ' ' ' toomme a u)taimicity 4'.Oparily ("'it%wiry COmicily Capacity school yearl i Carehoto 60832 533 533 533 533 533 502 Ephesus 66,952 448 448 448 448 440 I Estes Rills 56,299 527 527 527 527 5271 485, Glenwood 50,764 4231 423 423 423, 4231 4541 FP Graham 66,689 538 538 538 536 $38 531 MeDougle 98,000 564 564 564 564 564 499 '"i hikis 95,729 585 585 585 58 585 517 lishrogsh 90,980 575 575 575 1V75' 575 505 .1 Seamen 52,896 466 466 466 466 466 525 Mortis Grove 90,221 585 585 585 5851 585 558 No17184130 99,500 0 0 585 $8.5. 585 485 :total 828,862 5,244 5,244 5,829 5,829 5,829 5,501 Special Note(s):6.For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-cernfied capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Repreientalive Techtucal Advisory Committee Report. These capacities will remain effective until changed by(11 the School t,IP or(21 an amended version of Ons Mmt that is certified by he 130CC,2„11ue to November 15th falling on a Sunday this year,membership and capacity numbers shall be provided h Friday,November 13,2015 Justification: „, Ca city Ce ! tif , 1 .„ I lit ) c 14/ -- / 117/:crr ,t, , - Sup rintendent Date BOCC Chair Date hers erfification: 7/1-1 / // cr” tit)/ [ 5 M 17. erintendent Date BOCC Chair Date' 14 29 Section I Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill/Carrboro School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2015-16) (page 2 of 3) School APFO Capacity/ Membership and Change Request Form Icsooi District: Chapel Hill-Carrbore City Schools SAPP°CAPS Year November 13,2015-November 14,2016 'Capacity and Membership Submittal bate: November 13,2015 .. " .. 2011-21112 2012,2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 Membership Squat e „lustolicourm Middle Seho uil , Requested 14equested Requested Requested Requested , trelereueed R"I , Capacity Capari1y t'opacity (a mcdy Capacity school year) Culbeeth 108,058 670 670 670 774 774 716 MoDougle 136,221 732 732 732 732 732 689 Phillips 109,498 706 706 706 706 706 642 'Smith 128,764 732 732 732 732 732 797 . . „„ .. , Total 482,541 Z840 2,840 2,840 24944 2,944 2,844j Special Note(s): I For the November 15,2002 base year the board accepted the supermtendeMicertified capacities as part of the School Facilities changed by(l)the School C or(2)an amended VIMSEOR of this form that is certified by the BOCC 2 Due to November I iith falling on a Sunday this Justification: 7licity rtli4litcpn: , tedliCil- ,, 7 / , 149 7 " /di-C'-' - , 0 - , uperintendent Date BOCC Chair Date' harsh ve ert f ication: ( i lji5/1 uperintendent Date 80CC 5-, Chair Date i 15 30 Section I Attachment I.B.4 Chapel Hill/Carrboro School Capacity(Elementary,Middle, &High) (2015-16) (page 3 of 3) School APF0 Capacity, Membership and Change Request Form School District: Chapel 11111-Carrboro City Schools . . . .. ... . .... ... .... . , 'LAPP°CAP C Year: November 13,2015-November 14,2016 Capacity and Membership Submittal Date: November 13,2015 2011-2012 .201.2-2013 10(34014 2014.21115 '2015-21116 re Nteoitiersbip Squa ' '' tuslificatlart High School 1,,ect Requested 11.equested Requested Requested Requested 1.,0400100,It (rettiretieed triplicity Capacity ("opacity ("opacity. Capacity ' school year), eh/ape:1160 241,111 1,520 1,520 1,520 1,520 1,520 M71 East Chapel Hill 259,869 1,515 1$15 1,515 1,515 1,515 1,373 Canton) 148,023 800 800 800 800 ..o0 824 !Phoenix Mat 5,207 40 40 40 40 40 33 Toted :11 654,21(1 3,875 3,2175 3,875 3,8751 3,875 3,70'11 Special Mote(s): 0' For.the November 15 2002 he year the hoard accepted the superintendent-certified cape Mes as part of the School Facilities changed by r I)th e School OP or r 2)an amended vers■on of this form that is certified by the liCWC 2 Due to November I Sth falling on a Sunday this Justification: Ca•,city Corztific tion:, 41' ' if'el'r./:;''''' ' ' , ' 'z,..5 Ei...,1 101 14-4- /,...-..),/,,,.; 7,r S .•erintendent Dat . -BOCC Chair Dat 10mbersr)14,ritif1f/ationt (a ?(,--- r e-_ 4,, ii/Llete- Superintendent Date BOCC Chair ate 16 31 Section II C.Membership Date 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—Change can be effectuated only by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)by all School APFO partners. The Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC)may advise if a change in date would improve the reporting or timeliness of the report. 2. Definition —The date at which student membership is calculated. This date is updated each year and also serves as the basis for projections along with the history from previous years. "For purposes of this Memorandum, the term "school membership" means the actual number of students attending school as of November 15 of each year. The figure is determined by considering the number of students enrolled(i.e. registered, regardless of whether a student is no longer attending school) and making adjustments for withdrawals, dropouts, deaths, retentions and promotions. Students who are merely absent from class on the date membership is determined as a result of sickness or some other temporary reason are included in school membership figures. Each year the School District shall transmit its school membership to the parties to this agreement no later than five (5) school days after November 15. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District November 15 November 15 of each year of each year 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: This will be analyzed in the future years to determine if it is an exemplary date. 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District No change at this time. No change at this time. 17 32 Section II II. Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be conducted by the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) after review of the CIP requests from the School Districts. Action regarding CIP programs usually occurs during the BOCC budget Public Hearing process in the winter and spring of each year. The development of the CIP considers the conditions noted in the SAPFOTAC report released in the same CIP development year including LOS (level of service), capacity, and membership projections. 2. Definition —The process and resultant program to determine school needs and provide funding for new school facilities through a variety of funding mechanisms. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District Not Applicable Not Applicable 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: The MOU outlines a system of implementing the SAPFO, including issuing Certificates of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) to new development if capacity is available. The Requests for CAPS will be evaluated using the most recently adopted Capital Investment Plan. A new Capital Investment Plan is currently under development for approval prior to June 30, 2016. 5. Recommendation: Not subject to staff review. 18 33 Section II B. Student Membership Projection Methodology 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—This section is reviewed and recommended by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) to the BOCC for change, if necessary. 2. Definition —The method(s)by which student memberships are calculated for future years to determine total membership at each combined school level(Elementary, Middle, and High School) which take into consideration historical membership totals at a specific time (November 15) in the school year. These methods are also known as 'models'. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District Presently, the average of five models is being used: namely 3, 5, and 10 year history/cohort survival methods, Orange County Planning Department Linear Wave, and Tischler Linear methods. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Performance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model is in its prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity shortfalls so the annual Capital Investment Plan (CIP)updates can respond proactively with siting, design, and construction. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. Attachment II.B.3 shows the performance of the models for the 2014-15 school year from the prior year projection. 5. Recommendation: More than ten years of projection results are now available. Analysis on the accuracy of the results is showing that some models have better results in one district while others have better results in the other district. The historic growth rate is recorded by the models, but projected future growth is more difficult to accurately quantify. In all areas of the county,proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. The system is updated in November of each year, becoming part of the historical projection base. This is especially pertinent in the Orange County School District which serves students living within the Orange County portion of the City of Mebane which have had little historic enrollment 19 34 Section II impact. The significant proposed residential growth occurring within Mebane's jurisdiction has yet to be fully entered into the historically based projection methods. Although construction activity in this portion of the county has slowed, there are still a substantial number of approved, but undeveloped residential lots. 20 35 STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION 1 CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS Tischer Linear(OCS& Mathematical formula;straight line projection y=((o'b)"x)+b Historical growth is reflected in projected growth CHCCS) y=projected population;c=historical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years BYM+(BYI+5(n))=EYM EYM`%SL=EYM/SL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school increase in BYI of 5 every other year reflects (OCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year;%SL=%of total increases in housing growth; reflects buildout membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year constraints member by school level BYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYM/SL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school decrease in BYI of 15 until school year 2010-2011 (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year;%SL--%of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYM/SL=ensuing year buildout constraints member by school level ^r ^r A7, KK =kn.,+'(kn.i'0.01) n ,, om' Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(£ Gn I gn.1)1 3 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the p 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate "'r ( 9 n=3 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same — CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n i(a) percentage of students in each grade level "'- kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year bo and/or historical growth rates " g membership(other kindergarten);g= grade's membership;a=average CA advancement rate;b=projected membership C"'r tZ et R Kn=kn•i+(kn_1"0,01) Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 4 advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(E Gn I gn.1)15 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same C et HCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n.i(a) percentage of students in each grade level kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average 7 advancement rate;b=projected membership b . 0. et n Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 O R advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each a=(£ Gn I g„.1)/10 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the d 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=10 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same et CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n-i(a) percentage of students in each grade level n kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year ,�' and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average =• advancement rate:b=projected membership p 36 Section II Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2014-15) (page 1 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2014-15 School Year (November 14, 2014) 11/15/13 2014 Report 11/14/14 Actual Projection for Actual Change between actual 2013-14 2014-15 2014-15 Nov 2013 -Nov 2014 Elementary 3433 3259 -174 Model Projection is T 3493 H234 OCP 3492 H233 10C 3457 H198 5C 3471 H212 3C 3488 H229 AVG 3472 H213 11/15/13 11/14/14 Middle 1747 1762 +15 Model Projection is T 1778 H16 OCP 1777 H15 10C 1796 H34 5C 1799 H37 3C 1793 H31 AVG 1789 H27 11/15/13 11/14/14 High 2421 2502 +81 Model Projection is T 2463 L39 OCP 2434 L68 10C 2404 L98 5C 2436 L66 3C 2294 L208 AVG 2406 L96 Totals 11/15/13 11/14/14 Elementary 3433 3259 Middle 1747 1762 High 2421 2502 7601 7523 -78 Model Projection is T 7734 H211 OCP 7703 H180 10C 7657 H134 5C 7706 H183 3C 7575 H52 AVG 7667 H144 H means High L means Low 22 37 Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2014-15) Section II (page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2014-2015 School Year (November 14, 2014) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were all high ranging from 198 students to 234 students high. On average, the projections were 213 students higher than actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 174 students between November 15, 2013 and November 14, 2014. Middle School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 15 students to 37 students high. On average, the projections were 27 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 15 students between November 15, 2013 and November 14, 2014. High School Level • Projections were all low ranging from 39 students to 208 students low. On average, the projections were 96 students lower than the actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 81 students between November 15, 2013 and November 14, 2014. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were high, ranging from 52 to 211 above actual membership. On average, the projections were high by 144 students. • The membership decreased in total by 78 students, which is the sum of-174 at Elementary, +15 at Middle, and +81 at High. 23 38 Section II Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2014-15) (page 3 of 4) Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District School Membership 2014-2015 School Year (November 14. 2014) 11/15/13 2014 Report 11/14/14 Actual Projection for Actual Change between actual 2013-14 2014-15 2014-15 Nov 2013 -Nov 2014 Elementary 5554 5541 -13 Model Projection is T 5647 H106 OCP 5655 H114 10C 5637 H96 5C 5610 H69 3C 5628 H87 AVG 5635 H94 11/15/13 11/14/14 Middle 2858 2861 +3 Model Projection is T 2906 H45 OCP 2889 H28 10C 2957 H96 5C 2930 H69 3C 2943 H82 AVG 2925 H64 11/15/13 11/14/14 High 3764 3730 -34 Model Projection is T 3827 H97 OCP 3875 H145 10C 3761 H31 5C 3772 H42 3C 3788 H58 AVG 3805 H75 Totals 11/15/13 11/14/14 Elementary 5554 5541 Middle 2858 2861 High 3764 3730 12,176 12,132 -44 Model Projection is T 12,380 H248 OCP 12,419 H287 10C 12,355 H223 5C 12,312 H180 3C 12,359 H227 AVG 12,365 H233 H means High L means Low 24 Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2014-15) Section II (page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District School Membership 2014-2015 School Year (November 14, 2014) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 69 students to 114 students high. On average, the projections were 94 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 13 students between November 15, 2013 and November 14, 2014. Middle School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 28 students to 96 students high. On average, the projections were 64 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 3 students between November 15, 2013 and November 14, 2014. High School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 31 students to 145 students high. On average, the projections were 75 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 34 students between November 15, 2013 and November 14, 2014. TOTAL • The total of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 180 students to 287 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were high by 233 students. • The membership decreased in total by 44 students, which is the sum of-13 at Elementary, +3 at Middle, and -34 at High. 25 40 Section II Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2015-16) (page 1 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2015-16 School Year (November 13, 2015) 11/14/14 2015 Report 11/13/15 Actual Projection for Actual Change between actual 2014-15 2015-16 2015-16 Nov 2014 -Nov 2015 Elementary 3259 3318 +59 Model Projection is T 3309 L9 OCP 3318 Equal 10C 3279 L39 5C 3268 L50 3C 3251 L67 AVG 3285 L33 11/14/14 11/13/15 Middle 1762 1739 -23 Model Projection is T 1789 H50 OCP 1791 H52 10C 1730 L9 5C 1722 L17 3C 1721 L18 AVG 1751 H12 11/14/14 11/13/15 High 2502 2469 -33 Model Projection is T 2541 H72 OCP 2545 H76 10C 2456 L13 5C 2488 H19 3C 2520 H51 AVG 2510 H41 Totals 11/14/14 11/13/15 Elementary 3259 3318 Middle 1762 1739 High 2502 2469 7523 7526 +3 Model Projection is T 7639 H113 OCP 7654 H128 10C 7465 L61 5C 7478 L48 3C 7492 L34 AVG 7546 H2O H means High L means Low 26 Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2015-16) Section II (page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2015-2016 School Year (November 13, 2015) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • The majority of projections were all low ranging from 9 students to 67 students below actual membership. One projection equaled actual membership. On average, the projections were 33 students lower than actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 59 students between November 14, 2014 and November 13, 2015. Middle School Level • Projections were mixed low and high, ranging from 18 students below to 52 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 12 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 23 students between November 14, 2014 and November 13, 2015. High School Level • The majority of projections were high, ranging from 19 to 76 students above actual membership. One projection was low with 13 students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 41 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 33 students between November 14, 2014 and November 13, 2015. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were mixed low to high, ranging from 61 students below to 128 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 20 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership increased in total by 3 students, which is the sum of+59 at Elementary, -23 at Middle, and -33 at High. 27 Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2015-16) Section II (page 3 of 4) Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District School Membership 2015-16 School Year (November 13, 2015) 11/14/14 2015 Report 11/13/15 Actual Projection for Actual Change between actual 2014-15 2015-16 2015-16 Nov 2014- Nov 2015 Elementary 5541 5501 -40 Model Projection is T 5625 H124 OCP 5641 H140 10C 5606 H105 5C 5586 H85 3C 5573 H72 AVG 5606 H105 11/14/14 11/13/15 Middle 2861 2844 -17 Model Projection is T 2905 H61 OCP 2898 H54 10C 2910 H66 5C 2888 H44 3C 2874 H30 AVG 2895 H51 11/14/14 11/13/15 High 3730 3701 -29 Model Projection is T 3787 H86 OCP 3818 H117 10C 3701 Equal 5C 3707 H6 3C 3696 L5 AVG 3742 H41 Totals 11/14/14 11/13/15 Elementary 5541 5501 Middle 2861 2844 High 3730 3701 12,132 12,046 -86 Model Projection is T 12,317 H271 OCP 12,357 H311 10C 12,217 H171 5C 12,181 H135 3C 12,143 H97 AVG 12,243 H197 H means High L means Low 28 Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2015-16) Section II (page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District School Membership 2015-2016 School Year (November 13, 2015) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 72 students to 140 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 105 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 40 students between November 14, 2014 and November 13, 2015. Middle School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 30 students to 66 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 51 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 17 students between November 14, 2014 and November 13, 2015. High School Level • Projections were mixed, ranging from 5 students below to 117 students above actual membership. One projection equaled actual membership. On average, the projections were 41 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership decreased by 29 students between November 14, 2014 and November 13, 2015. TOTAL • The total of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 97 students to 311 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were high by 197 students. • The membership decreased in total by 86 students, which is the sum of-40 at Elementary, -17 at Middle, and -29 at High. 29 44 Section II C. Student Membership Projections 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change— The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report certifications. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition — The result of the average of the five student projection models represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level (Elementary, Middle, and High) for each school district(Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District and Orange County School District). 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District The 5 model average discussed in Section The 5 model average discussed in Section II.B (Student Projection Methodology) II.B (Student Projection Methodology) See Attachment II.C.4 See Attachment II.C.3 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show a decrease at the Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools' elementary, middle, and high school levels and at the Orange County Schools' middle and high school levels. The only increase in student membership was at the Orange County Schools' elementary school level. Chapel Hill/Carrboro Schools projected average annual growth rates have decreased slightly, but remain positive. Future growth rates show positive growth at the elementary and high school levels, but varying positive and negative growth at the middle school level in the 10 year projection period. Projected average annual growth rates for Orange County Schools have increased slightly since the previous year. Orange County Schools' future growth rates show varying positive and negative growth in the 10 year projection period for the elementary, middle, and high school levels. Attachment II.C.3 and Attachment II.C.4 show year by year percent growth and projected level of service (LOS). The projection models were updated using current(November 13, 2015)memberships. Membership numbers were collected on 30 45 Section II November 13 due to November 15 falling on a Sunday in 2015. Ten years of student membership were projected thereafter. Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Elementary The previous year(2015-15)projections for November 2015 at this level were overestimated by 105 students. The actual membership decreased by 40 students. Over the previous ten years, this level has shown varying increases in growth rates including a decrease in actual membership in 2009-10 which was most likely due to the shorter enrollment period caused by the institution of the new date requiring kindergarteners to be five years old. Following that dip, membership numbers experienced an increase each year with a significant jump (168 students) in 2011-12 before experiencing a decrease in 2014-15 and this year. Growth rates during the past ten years have ranged from -1.57% to +3.92%. The district's eleventh elementary school,Northside Elementary School, opened in 2013. The need for an additional elementary school is not anticipated in the 10 year projection period. Last year's projections showed a need in 2023-24. Although not included in SAPFO school capacity or membership numbers, Pre-K programs continue to impact operations at District elementary schools where Pre-K programs exist. Specific impacts of Pre-K programs at the elementary school level will continue to be reviewed and discussed in the coming year. Middle The previous year(2014-15)projections for November 2015 for this level were overestimated by 51 students. The actual membership decreased by 17. Over the previous ten years, this level has shown varying increases before experiencing a decrease this year. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from -0.59% to +2.86%. Capacity was increased in 2014 with the opening of the Culbreth Middle School science wing. The need for an additional middle school is not anticipated in the 10 year projection period. Last year's projections showed a need in 2023-24. High School The previous year(2014-15)projections for November 2015 for this level were overestimated by 41 students. The actual membership decreased by 29 students. Over the previous ten years, change has been variable with decreases in membership in five of the ten years. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from -1.74 to +3.27%. The need for additional high school 31 46 Section II capacity at Carrboro High School is not anticipated in the 10 year projection period. This is similar to last year's projections. Additional Information for Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District PACE Academy High School, located within the Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District, closed prior to the beginning of the 2015 school year. Students from this charter school were absorbed into the Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District and the Orange County School District. The newest charter school, The Expedition School, opened in the Town of Hillsborough for the 2014-15 school year and currently serves elementary and middle school students. The opening of this school continues to have an effect on CHCCS membership numbers at the elementary and middle school levels. Charter schools are not included as part of the SAPFO Annual Report and, as a result, their membership and capacity numbers are not monitored or included in future projections. Student projections illustrate when the adopted level of service capacities are forecasted to be met and/or exceeded in anticipation of CIP planning and the construction of a new school. However, as is being identified by both school districts,particularly CHCCS, a new trend is emerging to renovate and expand existing facilities to address school capacity needs in a more feasible way. As this trend continues, additional capacity resulting from school renovations and expansion will be added to the projection models in stages, once funding is approved, versus the addition of greater capacity when a new school is constructed and completed. As a result, the renovation and expansion of schools to increase capacity may delay construction of new schools further into the future. Orange County School District Elementary The previous year(2014-15)projections for November 2015 at this level were underestimated by 33 students. Actual membership increased by 59 students. Over the previous ten years, this level experienced varying growth rates including a decrease in membership in 2005-06. Following this decrease, membership and growth rates increased every school year until experiencing a significant decrease in 2014-15. Growth rates during this period have ranged from -5.07% to +2.80%. In the Orange County school system, historic growth is more closely related to new residential development than in the Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District, which 32 47 Section II has a sizeable number of new families in older, existing housing stock. The need for an additional Elementary School is not anticipated in the 10 year projection period. This is similar to last year's projections. Staff continues to closely monitor new sizeable residential projects in the Orange County portion of Mebane and Hillsborough. Although not included in SAPFO school capacity or membership numbers, Pre-K programs continue to impact operations at District elementary schools where Pre-K programs exist. Specific impacts of Pre-K programs at the elementary school level will continue to be reviewed and discussed in the coming year. Middle The previous year(2014-15)projections for November 2015 for this level were overestimated by 12 students. The actual membership decreased by 23. Over the previous ten years, growth has varied widely and includes decreases in student membership in four of the ten years. Growth rates during this period have ranged from -2.20% to +4.00%. The district's third Middle School, Gravelly Hill Middle School, opened in October 2006. The need for an additional Middle School is not anticipated in the 10 year projection period. This is similar to last year's projections. Staff continues to closely monitor new sizeable residential projects in the Orange County portion of Mebane and Hillsborough. High School The previous year(2014-15)projections for November 2015 for this level were overestimated by 41 students. The actual membership decreased by 33. Over the previous ten years, growth varied considerably and included a decrease in membership in 2009-10. Following this decrease, membership and growth rates increased every school year before experiencing another decrease this year. Growth rates during this period ranged from -1.32% to 4.58%. In 2011-12 student membership increased by 32 while capacity decreased by 199 at Orange County High School as a result of a N.C. Department of Public Instruction (DPI) study. The need for additional capacity at Cedar Ridge High School is not anticipated in the 10 year projection period. This is similar to last year's projections. Additional Information for Orange County School District The City of Mebane lies partially within Orange County and students within the Orange County portion of Mebane attend Orange County schools. However, the City of Mebane is not a party to 33 48 Section II the SAPFO agreement and therefore does not require that CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools)be issued prior to development approvals. In previous years, development activity and platting of new subdivisions increased within the Orange County portion of Mebane. However, changed economic conditions have curbed new platting and new construction in the past few years. An uptick in residential activity is likely as the country emerges from "The Great Recession". Increased coordination with the City of Mebane regarding development issues may be necessary in the future. OCS currently has capacity to serve additional growth, but it is possible that development in the Orange County portion of Mebane could quickly encumber available capacity. Following the economic downtown, there has been an increase in multi-family residential development which has added to increasing student memberships in both districts. Staff will need to continue monitoring and evaluating the demand and growth of the multi-family market in Hillsborough and the entire county as well as its effect on student membership rates. Orange Charter School, located in the Town of Hillsborough, continues operating in the Orange County School District. Additionally, a new charter school, The Expedition School, opened in the Town of Hillsborough for the 2014-15 school year and currently serves elementary and middle school students. The opening of this school continues to have an effect on OCS membership numbers at the elementary and middle school levels. Charter schools are not included as part of the SAPFO Annual Report and, as a result, their membership and capacity are not monitored or included in future projections. 5. Recommendation: Use statistics as noted in 3 above. 34 49 ._. ,.,,. co 0 OCS Student Projections(1)(4) `� eieme18ry 6<1100 rw 20014. 200703 2003. 2004. 236603 200631 2697. 919600 2003.10 2010.1 2911.12 2312.13 201214 291446 2016.16 2016.17 291.16 2016.13 2019. 202921 2021. 10]]23 2023.24 2026. 2399 2 901 2 945 1018 3006 3072 3158 3195 3 II 3265 3348 3403 3 433 .: 1 r,.. .,.,,,,:r,.. .,.,,,,21 IffEEMIHMEEMMIZEINEEM 3 0INIGEONIEFISMI MillIMMIZIMMEMEICEEMMIMMISEEMMilliMMIIM 31ie a>GOVM 3168 ,fr3�9wrTmr.7lYl-.-..,e1EMl�R�:7IE7M ��Om,•irrcr.a,..cr....in Rea 3Pr•-.491.mmns• .ot1 :1111M111 211 11 :1 1■!:1111■Ef.1■7:11=11:21■nMill".■711MMII �11■113111■E■SI■211■MIMINIMI a..<1 eve .vice 1 A N I M A I I=7 7 1 1=7 7 1 1 E T'7=I 7 1 1 E F.^7 14111079 JE0JI 91Ef'r^I!S'r^ !I E M I, =J !mini Er7=mil '7 c and 70•.0e.Over flier.100'5205 ∎'ffiP I_� �_�������.�-�=r�.'� M�r M.r� _E Mi Mp� Number o/Stutleea Actual 1061,0.1d Service !IPATIMICSIMOIMESSIMIZIIMIIIMMEI=IITIMIEMIEUTIMITIEMMIMEITIIMMEMIMITIEITIMMTM=7MMTM N nW.ndvrq.ee.d.Over lun.n10615LOS 1 8 066 9 at 1666) m3 1476) =MI,=mIMMIM �•'IMGS.AMMI1Md1 91% 162% 2.41% .� 5 lux + e Annual Student 6120 32020 6 o2z 1 �."° 020% 123% 1..�''° ^�^^ IV en o.eem...<a...<,. ...,2r....,.a..�,..�e<.r«. woe 6.,06O.•a,.622.4..........4.0..6) ma.xsia.' - CD �e._.......,.,,a.....,_.mne..Pma.m.®.e.m, :�rdm..,m.........,..a...�m.m.,_m..m.-..,<.a<. ....a«,�d...,>,_..e..a,�a........�. I I■1 OCS Student Projections(1) Mile. veer 200102 201203 200354 209446 200656 2006. 2007. 2006. 290310 2010.11 201112 201213 211114 2013.16 2010.16 201617 201718 231843 211820 202621 2021. 2022. 202334 202426 16 1 1:. 1 1 D3 1500 1500 I, 160 1885 1693 1204 16& 1 747 116 i 789 1816 1644 1 310 1898 1915 1952 1 979 9 1319 936 O .. 11 886 - -.. - 1.162 1718 1762 . 1,848 1.735 In 31,08.416.198092) 23 16 1111 161 36 6 601_ 1,763 111 1.021 10 19 1.767 1,776 :ID -< OO.eve Increase 1 166������������ 2.166 116 2166 2186 2166 I ct ua and P.q.t.,OV.(17.0100%L0s 12041_ 1P2s1_ 3�) 2P,7) 2140 21'2'1_ 21409)_ 1700) CD So." � i13[li#i[li#S[l ^ Number 1 ...r ]�: 310% 0008 431% -1�' 1.11 I1•. ',mbar of Students Actual end Pr.. 0v. ..102%106 ®W�®�M'aril MIIMi'0M7. WI TI1ll1211=iJ1=3�1 16x1 Mwl 1466) n ) 206') 96601 1ss I .2` Annual sR'!�.,F?��"!�;?�;..�IZE?E�:..d:?m��"1�;.. � 1 �' ....las vman as4ld surpasses Schools 6PPO men,...L.rq lS.vn. na<.r,r.rym.Rmo am,� ».a, - ..., . r .u...e m......e hers CIA OCS Student Projections(1) =r Ow Mk2e PD 69h3035 6.,r 299141 200203 200304 200496 100606 20037 2007. 200009 200319 201911 201712 201313 201114 2014-16 201616 201617 201716 201019 201249 202021 201122 208123 202124 2924.27^,,,, 5, 1::_ •1^1 .i . 1233 2315 1.21 0 4.N _ 2898 1M79 2 - I0 r .536 0 206.a.414 mm .r 25tl 2F21 2,607 2.93 ]FM 2527 -. AMUSOr.Me•InaesseWWecm6,e11n Pea 8 PIO...Memben1P) e1 76 63 170 67 A 67 41 126 5 61 32 106 06 8 33 44 041 32 42 03 11x) 20) CD pacify-100.eve Service 2513 2516 2533 2566 2566 25.20 2t% _ 2436 2,439 and Prejec5e2.Over 1tlyder110014LOS 1690) 220 31) 2(46 11 f391 2019 1 21 2) 13161 1341) 21338) 2(3616 21124) (18) 1.• .. O wn m,Ad..]• -emd,Ov. • 10%106 �mmilmmi,ma'mrrmmmaurm� '11wr'1SIIr...i1r•�•jl�rm 21,41 2833 1131 0021 211361 2683 11041 21611 215 4 1012 2(S1) 0 Annual Student Growth 3.131 I 1.=^!�S''"IlE7-1 ��M: ===i7nn. 11s 1WM 1.21% 1:, .+.3p% 1268 1.63% 00664 +.21% 4.29% 2.0314 �� ( .r.....aa e 1 - .4)5,0h 11210asses 4<1.1)0210 wom.ed.d Lar....i., .'•'°"-"�di°6J .+.aw .,n,.axhd7 ,hu0.., 111.....a..,_.o...VO...............amm.. m .,....4._....e. ..m11Mn..4 CD b ■■ 0 4 CD W ,^ xl ■--■ffQ Ch 0' 50 cz, ,sse. CHCCS Student Projections(1)(4) E1•221.21, Lt....1 2034•12. gm. ma. 200304 200005 20025.02 200.7 2007.09 300.0 MO. 207041 20043 2012.10 2013.44 2014.15 2010142 20.47 2017. 20.25 020-32 3330-21 2021-72 .22-.33 2023. 2914-231 '-......1 ,A9„., .,,.9., ,95 4.09, ,9. ,9 9, .",.3. ,.,..,, s,,, ,..3, o.,43 ,.,,,,, ...“ ..■..-. 51201 5 607 3.. 0 769 5 327 5035 IS. E.U. E.,,.1 ..... ....I 3.56fi . F...0 5. 5 753 3 131, 0 074 5 331 5 74, • AVM. 00011 5.5.2 5770 5.20 3.1 S. " 5... 00.1 3.0.-12000 25.40402427201 I 1064.4 61422.56.1 =WWI=.11.1.111.611RMESIMIER Illi ' " ' . ' " " 'ON ' AD C-ac.-150N Le.of Same 6.06 r, NU..a1 StUdents.•ctual a.Pr...Over 099.1133,9 1.03 EFINIMPIMINCIERMIgMERIMEMERMEIR :SO' 0:370' :En .: .: 2 !Ti111=101MIN!!1!!IIMINII!IMITIMIIMR1,■119!!!!MTMIWI.MnIMITIMIBMI « ev _----- - ■IltrISISSI■trO WS 130121■1111ffl!■51111=161111=RINI nr....e....Meath Rate 31 9771Tri=MI IIMWIrrri .T...1 .I..41 .17,1 '7.'..11.1Mrri .P7.11 " ...rilLWr■11771. 1T1■TrIl MI ligt 6.131,761 79.96 0.30.4,0 J07, Pat. / Rs.3.9 13,335.33991..93 C...0,5....,9s.....t,..e...Jko,tu .32.26:04422-54240-02'0.22"202-0646- -1 / 1 Irmi,rnme.s. gasp..,nblal...eartime.,•toc,rne0..16,..1,..3.fttla, re,cal dna..). It4 I CHCCS Student Projections CO 22 610122 n School Year 200142 DM. 20(004 2004.33 2006-00 200007 2207. 200300 207040 201011 2011-12 201243 20.44 2014. 201,16 .16717 .17713 20.12-19 201940 202031 202102 203237 2025.24 202443 = ,.., ■'''' 7'' ,., ,.. 2 57, 2 537. ,",r 7.7 2 7. ,2,7 2 7,, ,7. .,'.5, 2., 2., . - ..., . .: 3 035 3079 3 123 3 166 3 210 3 253 3 297 -'I 3069 335 3 106 335 093 339 3459 11:$ ...: . . 3 034 3097 3 132 3 1513 3 133 3 170 3 02 rt, - .`. •-.' 23," 3. 30,, 3036 3'14 3., 3.75 I■1 AMO. .23 . : A 3 *II 31,1050•.00.410.05.44 31..6 P...61011140.131 31 at at 47 40 2.I 0 505.I•.,.,3.99.9.93993 . 322: 6.3 2.1 6: 2.054. 2.5. ,.. 2.5. 2.6.• 2.2.6 2.3. 2.... 2.2. I■1 Nun.,r0 1.10112.3.93991 31311 3393.194 0.9.99.r.3303 LOS 0. .1 I. se 114 . 174 103 223 204 10701 1.6 0.42.0 '3'"733$FEE 60:FEEL ,...,INE 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.00 7200 3.. 2 155 3.100 3 103 3.. 3 00 1101.•al Ss*4.1•1 an. _42_006• 1076 LOS ,.- ' 55 I 2D ...0111114.2.1.1110.31 N. U. 0.1.1 0.0'13 041711 0.11 I.. ES. .15 0.2. 1.1. IA. SS. 33. n.1 115, 1 15, 1.3A •0 1 5.., 055 .15, 7., i,Hi 2.1•.‘ .1 31.0¢9.0.1931/1911,1.1.Sena.APF.0 tetommerferi.vel 01.5pr.c. 0" . 0 .! 0 CHCCS Student Projections(1) V) 0.0 701, .014 200.3 3600. 2004. 2000-00 2•07 233 7. 2•98. 0240. 201.1 201142 2012.13 201344 3332. 0212. 2010.17 2011. 21710.3 2013. 202443 2021. 202203 202544 202495 = 246 .253 '..." "0,3 3 40 3514 3,25 3 535 2533 35. 3545 2 20 3 2. ,7,4 3..0 CL '11.11e U.2 3,37 3,044 3.501 3 957 4,0,4 4,071 4 1., 4 I a5 4,2 4,293 OC 1:212 3 310 3 335 3 906 3.9 3 990 3 030 4 12F. A I. I 275 a 53 et. 3>01 3, 3 332 3.9. 4 O. 0050 4 1*6 a,1 4.233 4 320 = Ma . WE OM 3 • 3.0.- .•...., .._- 3 30 NZ 21__. .0 4.4.1.40.-1.00.02000 0 5.0 0 040.0 2540.46. 00 00 01 00 00 a . a 42 .1 C5.555..'''...'55.55 55'2542 DIM 7815 6070 IVO 7.75 7.070 7.075 7.075 7.75 7.070 7.075 Nurn0e.-ot se...see...1 eed e,setea o.....-,uee,,00..Los e EFEEEFiliiii , ,:„....,.., . .2....105, .(..1331 ....177I 4.171 .;.: 4,,.. ...140 „.31132 .,..3237 4.12 ....234 0■I• er) ,-■- .- simmonlillinlIMINIMIIIMINIMIIIMMEll 7- -• ewe..orewenS. cn H.-,,,....,...., ,-. M et E co 20 ■-s 4 1:6 1:6 es, 0 Rt, . 1-• v, Iv `.....,`....., 51 co 0 OCS Student Projections(1)(4) 6l2mMery 8.64 YS 31:0143 3806 ?901 ?935 3016 _6 307] 316 3165 3.I, 3338 340.1 3133 ...... .... ...... ..... ...... .... ...._.3133 303333 10338 _.3.35 303.36 rr rr ® ® ® 0 n ,.3030. .e EN �WREHWNENIN > �4 ° 11 l E ,61.... •103-.crows )In.nW arm.rdY..Mr.nw nn and a,..0.2 02..wd.,6.508 'Rr 71M IIIMTE1 JI∎wlIM?71M1fl1M'All IIMDIME IIMMIIlMII�Lt'IME1I=17111 €,131=F'Ef711 M�1 c 107.1. of « a 6w w. ION.• r960.r9.03.1 10x48.«.reer.. :_ I��1�� 7��E7��17!T7 C EJ7ET 7!} am am am ►•Nan of Students nnr.nd 6•en.o..Linde 1x409 ∎1e4�.'mrinimmma 9R mr.: marm= =Jlmm=nrmi 3mmmm=J1 . 1 �mimmi ae9 :s '"r ■ ® I� .w.. 6 5,o.0 •1(5( == "_ • M= '•"2 ', r''..•mir^=CE'. "'_1�". .0,6366 0x.WE � 301.6 1.1�, i Fy « «.�.®..m. ,ds6 as..3 Wit., a • .......3...0> �......,.' W r..�.:;.,.,..�.r.........w_..,_..e.._............« ...__«_.......«..30....,._.._34.-..- C •'S OCS Student Projections(1) AD r � Middle 333 300344 30620 30620 .0607 .0320 30084 303.10 �I���� �jll .3031 3031x3 �� (JQ S 303143 I® m CD 0 yen I M = mn sr1mm E^J SinmEr7 0 !v>im[•.-m-s�� ux .....N.....3 i7 ,'�•' 1 '∎_3= = = . M3= 1 IEC3E IMITIE1IE 7E fMf fMI IWE;7W = 1=A^'fWW ` Number or Studer.a nn..l and»-ed.d.o,.,under 109,.408 ■2111=1C11=r1®®M'+31MMIM,:116MIDEmIECElELr11ELIII1ECIDEED7MEITIEE91E't'MIMM.,1'I=1733= A=MIMDEDMInDME I I?9=•7miI!]sy ris rli#S[1IETSIIMITIEIIIIMTElirilW II1iFII1E1S[IETIEIMPTIEITIiFEfIMITIM IMTItIEEII1i1S[1iTR1i14I CA r.162.6 Se..r .o s o9.,,....166508 ®��®��F'11E'.:JI�E1 1=.E1tm1�JIEmI EI"1E'317117.�IEmIE 1101 imrimm1.J�1m71imm1mermmtn1 37730 B=EM MEEM .. =7= MIEGIERMIIIII7M IMIFII?WM MTIIEn S.,MEM1 MEII .EIM IMrM MZM C'' CD 0 30.30 «.......,......a. b wl OCS Student Projections(1) e 1_r. Nigh CD School Veer 3001 300343 070 16 3016.7 307.18 301419 3019.30 3020. 1.33 20230 a 2030 n 301:.60 x:63 r I zm 30313 1 30330 1••■ o p. to Awn. 387 2,669 2,604 3518 3069 3.636 3.68 2200 4.44. tw 4.58.e)ln8.41 1*0168 N.m6.107) el 36 69 170 63 23 i 41 46 6 6 33 106 81 431 36 36 421 42 44 13 6 (361 Rlj M apdty•15016 Level of S4ni. 1.618 .618 ,618 3.618 3.618 3533 3533 68 .6e 68 668 439 439 3pae 14.or Siveler..Aetts11 an. 9 ne.O wee(Unaa0100,1.09 336 3(2051 314431) 1361 (aa 1349' (333 3316 (aal) 30361 31318 3113a) _3(Ia) 3 35 3 30 120 177 .0 Iw CD iNe..16 1106614.or Sm. t. 3770 2 77 3.770 also a..6 ' 236 1010 224 2614 3814 2682 a0030 3882 3682 83 ,682 3Aa 3582 816 34] I••a ber el. .6dlb 4.d Ora • 91065508 82 3030 - 1 1 OIq 41 T 110 1) 3061 ®®®®®®®®I®®®®�®EE CD HS.6..dx88.o. (e "-1 317£::..=:ErL"EE'... ,..m[A'"m"11mamw_Em==Q':..=n se 3 8.337 1. 1 4.66 1• 1. • a .9 -1.0166 0 3030. AD „,.... ,. ,d,. m.....e............ern...2. >n,. s "'"°""«°'30712°"'"" r03 0rS ...Men WI 0.uurpasses s.n00 n1W n6.6.8a9 Level 4 s..;... l....9.rm_.__0>...4 I '... norm*noa wen a.. . r......e.....«....s y tzd t:)d , I r• ■-■ffQ 01 .'Tr W J 52 co 0 CHCCS_., Student Projections(1)(4) El. ..7 ti 12006 m,. =m. mm. 2010 11 2011.12 2016.. 2011, 20.16 a., "0000 ,, x„ 2020=, x a mum 202. mx „ A Away* 0/02 6.1101 0022 OMNI 0.0 070 SAS MO 02.1 IMO n ..... • �., o . 22201 a n B .—,..., ..,...•r. . �� �� ����MM IS M. .0 . 1* n", ,.O = .® M eno..l Stall or.14e-.w, - 4811, „" IL,.. .... SAY LW, 73. _771 10,, ,... ,,,. IMF 014% .a, 71. Mn ,2„ 11. 1214 11. 1=.7 ,S ,...,.^09,1:Alas:,sr,.n,mr� ,m:... "': —1'7,',.. �..s'..— "_, ( n ......_........,___._.....m_......_._.__.___,..____.._ 2:022_, .,,....,,a_ 2022,.—,_ 0202 _. CHCCS Student Projections(1) 1 NW. 1= 2001. 2006. 2020. 200.11 2020. 20000= 2001. 2020. 20070 2010-11 2011.12 201217 2017. 2014-,6 2016. x10-1 I 201112 201210 MID. 1 mum . I mast . mm . 20x7 202000 r��■yy. W Annual .,2 nc ....Pro..1.1.0.110, 0■11 Calm.10.Leval e.Servico 2 _ Wen..of Stue.s ,..w•ra_u.o..,m..i KO.LOS w` ., 1 3100 3.102 3 MO MOO 7100 .100 .100 3 IOC ..,..a a 1120....•260.3 and PIS..m�auuaISM.m ram 20.1 ,1201 7, n0-, 2011 1120 1173 mi,1111111111111/111/11 :r:,0- �, 1.,, �, CHCCS Student Projections(1) ....__..w...,.,..:..�.... CP IW7117lTfe!!t!�!!*f WR7 !S!!^j fWr!•1! IM!TIMM!!}! IWri'f!!SEl WIRTZ jC'TenW ITUIFlFf!!!W!M!MEE nR7!'R7r!.1VIT FrITE ¢ I IiIRIti11111!111i1iGAiIVII I l■1[?}f i7#'7iEA 77411['1'l1■11L9=111FT^IMIIIIrri 13111 - ,-1- ®®ems®esM® , .. . C n.....of„w.n..Actual.,.,r se.o..Uncle 10.LOS y WM..x S,w...•.,...w• tad 0..I..11.we ■IM■I69■1111■0® ∎'MI 11■011M11=©∎ml∎1=11■7111■11=11■LTAMMEI!!ffiffl0l=1®!TIA 1=7E1MM n •nn.n.wantOr a.,.a ®■T2121If®■TTII=CIMI®11IE7MEMMPIiSII■M■trTI®fftrIl■Inl■IMIMMIIMICCIIIMInCIIMITTI®IMIIMIIMITMIMITM O ...-..:... m' cn ............._..._.----...--..............._..:.,,.....,w: ........_.....r... - „r -,_ 2000,,.. I E 1M F+• ID W O L 1 •,• I—,(ICI F+ 53 Section II D. Student Membership Growth Rate 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change— The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) each year and referred to the BOCC for annual report certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections resulting from the average of the five models represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level for each school district. This does not represent the year-by-year growth rate that may be positive or negative, but rather the average of the annual anticipated growth rates over the next 10 years. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District See Attachment II.D.2 See Attachment II.D.2 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District The membership figures and percentage growth on the The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show continued growth at each school level attachments show continued growth at each school level within the system. within the system. Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over next Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over next ten years: ten years: Year Projection 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- Year Projection 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- Made: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Made: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Elementary 1.59% 1.18% 1.44% 1.11% 0.92% Elementary 1.6% 1.31% 1.30% 0.55% 0.80% Middle 1.94% 1.59% 1.58% 1.15% 0.82% Middle 2.01% 1.64% 1.42% 0.09% 0.67% High 1.73% 1.60% 1.27% 1.22% 0.93% High 1.61% 1.43% 1.35% 0.39% 0.56% 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District Use statistics as noted. Use statistics as noted. 39 54 2014-2015 Orange County Student Projections Elementary ehtttrl 8 2014-2015 2015=281+ 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2821' 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 3024-2025 ( ) 1\%Iembership 3,259 3,285 3,274 3,234 3,226 3,227 3;267 3,310 3,354 3,398 3,442 Average°r o Increase 0.80% -a33% -1.22% -0.26% 0.03% 1.23% 1.33% 1.32% 1.31% 1.30% Middle 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2417 2417-2018 2018.2019 2019-2420 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2424 2024-2025 n School (actual). ^ Cr Ivlembership 1,762 1;751 1,746 1,782 1,837 1,848 1;789 1,759 1,737 1,757 1;776 s� Average°o Increase -0.65% -0.27% 2.08% 3.10% 0.60% -3.21% -1.70% -1.23% 1.11% 1.10% I ■S .fir High School ?Y C7 school Year 2014-2815 2015-2016 2016-2417 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019`24 2020.2021 2021-2022 2022.21 2°23-2°24 2024-2925 F—+ (:actual) Membership 2,502 2,510 2,540 2,581 2,547 2,579 2;622 2,639 2,687 2,652 2;599 p Average°o Increase 0.32% 1.21% 1.60% -1.30% 1.26% 1.63% 0.66% 1.81% -1.29% -2.02% 'E N � O 'o N co CI1 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Student Projections o Elementary n.) school Year 2014-2015 2015-2416 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2028 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2025-2024 2024-2025 (actual) p' Membership 5,541 5;606 5,662 5,730 5,795 5,839 5;911 5,981 6,051 6,118 6,185 c Average°'o Increase 1.18% 0.99% 1.21% 1.13% 0.76% 1.23% 1.18% 1.16% 1.11% 1.10% ¢ ¢ n Middle School Year ?3114 11 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 201821119 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2d12 2#1 0#24 2024-2025 r—+ (actual) Membership 2,861 2;895 2,928 2,966 3,009 3,058 3;087 3,118 3,127 3,167 3;208 r•+ Average%Increase 1.18% 1.15% 1.28% 1.46% 1.63% 0.95% 0.99% 0.29% 1.29% 1.29% High School _ o at: 001 Year 2014-2015 2015-201:6 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 .2019-20 1 2020-2027. 2021-2022 2022•.-2023 2023-2024 2024-20255 (actual) ■s Membership 3,730 3,742 3,798 3,858 3,920 3,979 4,015 4,063 4,138 4,167 4;209 Average°rn Increase 0.32% 1.51% 1.58% 1.59% 1.52°l0 0.89% 1.19% 1.86% 0.70°l0 1.01% C E s7 "� 1 o O N O .T i N � CI1 55 2015-2016 Orange County Student Projections Elementary School r 2015-2016 2016-2017 201`?2018 2018-2019 2419.2420 2020- 021 2021-2022 2422-2423 2023-2024 2024-2023 2025-2026 (rtu4) Membership 3,318 3,325 3,308 3,319 3,332 3,390 3,430 3,470 3,511 3,551 3,594 average%Increase 0.21% -0.52% 0.34% 0.39% 1.73% 1.18% 1.18% 1.17°/0 1.16°/0 1.20% y Middle e' School-Year 2015-2016 2016-2417 2017=2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-1022 2422-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-20 n g. (actuak) = to Membership 1,739 1,743 1,776 1,830 1,846 1,790 1,784 1,778 1,817 1,837 1,857 „'-,r , average°.fo Increase 0.24% 1.91% 3.00% 0.90% -3.02% -0.36% -0.33% 2.18°/0 1.09% 1.08% .. High School 2 i.) hppk)ear 2015-2016 2016 3017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2420 2020-2021 2021-3022: 2022-3(123 202 2 2 202 2023 2025 2026 ,-% I (cti aI) O Membership 2,469 2,504 2,539 2,517 2,559 2,604 2,616 2,669 2,635 2,608 2,609 E O Average°o Increase 1.40% 1.42% -0 86% 1.67% 1.73% 0.47% 2.05°l0 -1.30°/0 -1.01% 0.03% C i'3 o■ co n Chapel HiII/Carrboro Student Projections © © Elementary cr^C School r 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 24)18-2419 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 (?+ )} co = Membership 5,501 5,552 5,584 5,622 5,634 5,699 5,768 5,835 5,902 5,966 6,083 0 C� Average°6Increase 0.93% 0.57% 0.69% 0.21% 1.16% 1.21% 1.15% 1.14°/0 1.09°/0 1.08% i`3 ►x - = Middle 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2419-2019 2019-2020 2024-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 W x hiolYear r•-+cn Year 2 844 2 830 2.854 2 915 2 995 2.996 2 997 2 974 3.006 3 045 3,084 C) Average°'o Increase 111111111111 -0.50% 0.86% 2.15% 2.74% 0.03% 0.00% -0.75% 1.09% 1.28% 1.27% E ►mss High School o School year 21115.2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 18-2019 2019-21120 .20211-2021 2021--2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2426 o (actual} Membership 3,701 3,757 3,820 3,842 3,857 3,883 3,917 4,013 4,041 4,045 4,058 "CI C Average°.fo Increase 1.52% 1.68% 0.57% 0.37% 0.67% 0.89% 2.44% 0.71°l0 0.08°/0 0.32% = ¢ C co 17 "s ■s 0 N 'r © "T cI1 i N ,r C 2 56 Section II E. Student / Housing Generation Rate 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change— The updating of this section will be conducted by Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition — Student generation rate refers to the number of public school students per housing unit constructed in each school district, as defined in the Student Generation Rate Study completed by TisherBise on October 28, 2014. Housing units include single family detached, single family attached/duplex, multifamily, and manufactured homes. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District See Attachment II.E.1 See Attachment II.E.1 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: At the January 2014 SAPFOTAC meeting, members discussed the increased number of students generated in both school districts from new development,particularly multifamily housing. The SAPFOTAC recommended further evaluation of the adopted Student Generation Rates and the impacts the number of bedrooms a particular housing type may have on student generation rates. As a result, Orange County entered into a contract with TischlerBise to update the student generation rate analysis. The new student generation rates were approved on May 19, 2015 and are shown in Attachment II.E.1. New rates from the 2014 Student Generation Rates for Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District Report are based on an inventory of recently built units from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013. It should be noted that students are generated from new housing as well as from existing housing where new families have moved in. The CAPS system estimates new development impacts and associated student generation, but it is important to understand that student increases are a composite of both of these factors. This effect can be dramatic and can vary greatly between areas and districts where either new 42 57 Section II housing is dominant or new families move into a large inventory of existing housing stock. 5. Recommendation: No change at this tine. 43 58 ti TischlerBise Student Generation Rates — 2014 Chapel Hill/Carrboro Schools 0-3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5+ Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Detached 0.61 0.84 1.13 0.84 0-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms Weighted Average Single-Family Attached 0.27 0.42 0.38 eD Multifamily/Other 0.11 0.47 0.18 0-1 Manufactured Home 0.268 0.86 0.78 trJ Weight Average for Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District 0.49 eD►s ►s Orange County Schools v, 0-3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5+ Bedrooms Weighted Average ro Single-Family Detached 0.35 0.57 0.57 0.44 0-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms Weighted Average ro Single-Family Attached 0.07 0.17 0.15 ?Y 0 Multifamily/Other 0.08 0.67 0.17 Manufactured Home 0.67 0.47 0.52 ro Weight Average for Orange County School District 0.37 0 Source:Student Generation Rates for Orange County School District and Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District,TischlerBise,October 28,2014 Revised May 7,2015 59 Section III III. Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process Abstract: The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance process has two distinct components: A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (Process 1) Timeframe: In November of each year, Student Membership and Building Capacity is transmitted from the school districts to the Orange County Board of Commissioners for consideration and approval and used in the following years CIP (e.g. November 15, 2015 membership numbers used to develop a CIP to be considered for adoption in June 2016). Process Framework 1. SAPFOTAC projects future student membership from historical data, current membership and hypothetical growth rates from established methodologies. 2. School Districts and BOCC compare projections to existing capacity and proposed Capital Investment Plan. 3. SAPFOTAC forwards data and projections to all Schools APFO partners. 4. School Districts develop Capital Investment Plan Needs Assessment during this process 5. The Capital Investment Plan work sessions and Public Hearings are conducted by the BOCC in the spring of each year. 6. The adoption of CIP that sets forth monies and timeframe for school construction (future capacity) by BOCC. 45 60 Section III School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process 1 - Capital Investment Planning (CIP) CIP CAPS Projection Method Approval System2 (Historical Membership' —> (Proposed New Construction —> (Certificate of plus Hypothetical Growth Rate i.e. School Capacity Adequate Public Added by number seats & year) Schools) T � y Actual Adjustments (Current Year Actual Replaces Past Year Membership Projection) b ro 'Historical Membership is a product of students generated from: (1) pre-existing/approved undeveloped lots where new housing is built, (2) a existing housing stock with new families/children, and(3) newly approved housing development (in the future this component will be known as �,' CAPS approved development) �. 2The only part of the CAPS System(i.e., computer spreadsheet subdivision tracking)that receives data from the Process 1 CIP includes the actual membership (November 15 of preceding CIP year)and new school capacity amount(seats) in a specific year pursuant to the CIP. 46 61 Section III B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Update (Process 2) Timeframe: The CAPS system is updated approximately November 15 of each year when the school districts report actual membership and `pre-certified' capacity, whether it is CIP associated or prior `joint action' agreement. `Joint action' determinations of changes in capacity due to State rules or other non-construction related items are anticipated to be done prior to the November 15 capacity and membership reporting date. This update may reflect the Board of County Commissioners action on the earlier year Capital Investment Plan(CIP) as it affects capacity and addition of new actual fall membership. The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) stays in effect until the following year — (e.g.: November 15, 2005 to November 14, 2006). New development is originally logged for a certain year. As the CAPS system is updated, each CAPS projection year is `absorbed' by the actual estimate of a given year. Later year CAPS projections of the same development remain in the future year CAPS system accordingly. For example, if a 50-lot subdivision is issued a CAPS, 15 lots maybe assigned to "Year 1," 10 lots to "Year 2," 10 lots to "Year 3," 10 lots to "Year 4," and 5 lots to "Year 5." When"Year 1"is updated, the students generated from the 15 lots are absorbed by the actual estimate. The students generated in "Years 2, 3, 4, and 5" are held in the CAPS system and added to the appropriate year when the CAPS system is updated. As was discussed in Section II.C, The City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO and does not require that CAPS be issued prior to approving development activities. However, residential development within the Orange County portion of Mebane has increased dramatically prior to 2009, but has slowed considerably due to the current economic climate. Currently, there are approximately 1,000 approved undeveloped residential lots in the portion of Mebane that lies within Orange County. Increasing development within this area of the county has the potential to encumber a significant portion of the available capacity within the Orange County School District. Although the SAPFO system is not formally regulated in Mebane, staff monitors 47 62 Section III development activity and when students enter the school system their enrollment is calculated and used in future school projection needs. Please note that the two processes (CIP and CAPS) are on separate, but parallel tracks. However, the CIP does create a crossover of capacity information between the two processes. For example, the Schools APFO system for both school districts that will be established/ initiated/certified each year in November and is based on prior year created and/or planned CIP capacity and current school year membership. The SAPFOTAC report including new current year membership and projections are to be used for upcoming CIP development as noted in Process 1. CIP Process 1 (for CIP 2016 - 2026) November 2015 —June 2016 (using 2016 SAPFOTAC Report) Schools APFO CAPS Process 2 (for Schools APFO System 2016—2017) November 2015 -November 2016 48 63 School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process 2 - Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Allocation 2016 CAPS system is effective November 15, 2015 through November 14, 2016. The system is updated with new membership, CIP capacity changes, and any other BOCC/School District joint action approved capacity prior to November 15, 2015. This information is received within 5 days of November 15 n and posted within the next 15 days. This CAPS system recalibration is retroactive to November 15, 2015. E CAPS Allocation System CAPS System to 1. Certified Capacity AC2=SC2 - (ADM2+ND 12+ND22+. . .) ro 2 LOS Capacity o 3. Actual Membership eD 4. Year Start Available Capacity N 5. Ongoing Current Available Capacity(includes available n capacity decreases from approved CAPS development by year) 6. CAPS approved development AC>_O - Issue CAPS n a. Total units b. Single Family' AC<0 - Defer CAPS to later date c. Other Housing' sz c b 'Student Generation Rates from CAPS housing type create future membership estimate. Please note that this CAPS membership future estimate is = different than the projection based on historical data and projection models used in the CIP process 1. This estimate only captures new development impact, which is the component that the SAPFO can regulate. 0 2AC- Available Capacity- Starts at Annual Update Capacity and reduces as CAPS approved development is entered into the system. SC- Certified School Level Capacity n ADM -Average Daily Membership ND - New Development;ND1 means first approved CAPS approved development cA 50 Attachment 2 aw CHCCS Student Projections(1)(4) Elementary School Year 2001-02 200203 2005-08 2 200758 200809 2008-10 2010-11 1011-12 201513 20 20 2015-16 21116-t7 2017-18 21118-18 21119-211 2020.21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-28 Actual 4 47 4551 20034692 20 495 4 878 00 4 980 5 173 502 5 218 5 288 5 464 5 543 155554 10.5541 135501 Tbc.(2) 5,576 5,651 5,726 5,831 5,676 5,951 6,026 6,102 6,177 6,252 OCR 5,802 5,728 5,658 5,975 8,082 8,198 8,288 8,378 8,452 8,48 earGro M 5,547 5,547 5,5130 5,524 5,575 5,1331 5,887 5,744 5,801 5,859 5 Year GrovAh 5,534 5,525 5,526 5,484 5,528 5,583 5,639 5,695 5,752 5,810 3 Year Growl)) 5,502 5,467 5,443 5,386 5/27 An.CM1age-Incmase(Decmase)In.5118 E Mtl Membership) 20 1 121 1401 31 32 39 35 6 4,3 4, 4,92 5,a 5,829 5,829 5,829 5,829 5,829 5,a20 5,82ver 1U 100%Las (229) (2881 (328) 12771 (2451 1207) (1951 1130) 1611 4,5 0.517 5,187 5,1 5,506 5,506 5, 5, 5,5 6,1 6,120 6,120 6,120 8,120 6,120 8,120 6,120 verlU106%LOS (431 34 14751 14721 (2881 11871 66 12041 12871 1221101 (421 37 1565 1291 (6191 15681 (5371 14981 14861 14211 13521 12861 (2191 11551 1901 Actual-%Level of Service 104. 1058% 95.3% 954% 99.1% 1012% 105.1% 1011% 99.5% 1014% 104.2% 1057% 95.35), 95. 94.4% 95.3% 95.8% 96.5% 96.755 97.8% 93.0% 100.1% 101.255 102.355 103.455 Annual Student Growth Rate 131 0.86% 1.73% 3.10% 0.08% 3.93% 3.076 3.6851, 3.495S 4.57% 1.48% 3.1796 1.45% 0.10% -0.0. 73 all 93% 0.57% I 0.89% 0.31% 1.18% 1.31% 145% 1.14% 1.09% 1.08% Cod/ales when tllseiJ surpasses SCMds PPO 5/nol ot9(pens 5)fall 2503.11 recommended Level of.vice 1619 aQ.w°0scuwd a c cw asp �mmorvx,0,000tvalmyvr Semen,en.,5.mmcwJgmss u um x n a 11).650.50574 nra. n. sum .L OeveareMmnnry mos.(m albwbudm LeahhWaanim m: mn•wrxrP.rwmm.iswuwmnmm..wmnocmmame o9.wP6mn.mmnm.sm.rmww,.mmnwmau.inaemmanwueenucxcce. 1 ma/MN amlm 1.,...A peAlraiseMalfia ulnpadMmilMant001.0211=1.20161.0■■■••pmw■Inil.,an201.171103.20250) CHCCS Student Projections(1) Middle School Year 2 2 200807 2008-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2 20 2015-18 2018-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 202524 2024-25 2025-20 Actual 12540 2032608 20522612 20 260 00 2 572 2522 20522622 20 297 2 708 102722 112753 112785 152856 142881 132844 T'lxhb l2) 2.863 7922 2.960 2.999 3.038 3.077 3.116 3.154 7193 3.232 OG Plignnin 2,878 2,818 2,983 3.049 3.115 3,168 3235 3,302 7370 3,438 10 Year Growth 2,815 2,848 2,933 3,544 3,020 3,005 2,940 2,985 2,995 3,025 5 Year Coos. 2,786 2,816 2,865 2,867 2,081 2,834 2,864 2,891 2,810 2,838 3 Year Growth 2,775 2,767 2,816 2,898 2648 2,798 2,716 2,729 2,756 2,734 Average 2830 7854 29 45 29 2,998 2,997 7974 3,008 3,0 3,084 Annual Chage-Increase(Decrease)In Actual&Projected Membership) 214 88 0 (52) 12 20 30 75 11 14 31 32 73 78 1171 1141 24 81 80 1 0 1221 32 38 39 Capacity•100%Level 47 Service 2,840 2,840 2,840 2440 2,840 2,840 2,944 2,944 2,944 2,944 2,944 2,944 2,944 2,944 2,944 2,944 2,944 2,944 Number of Students,Actual and PrJacted,over(Under)100%LOS 13001 12321 12281 12601 (2681 12481 (2181 11431 11321 (1161 1071 (55) 18 (53) 1100) (1141 1901 (291 53 30 62 101 140 107%Level of Service 3.039 1039 7039 3659 3.039 1039 7039 3659 3.039 1039 3.030 3.039 3.039 3450 3450 8.150 3.150 3450 3.150 1.850 3.150 3150 0.810 3150 0.810 Number of Students.Actual and 710e21e2.Over(Under)107%LOS (4991 (4311 14271 (4791 (4671 (471 (4171 (3421 (3311 13171 (2861 (2541 (1811 (2891 13061 (3201 (2961 (2351 (1551 (1541 (1541 (1761 (141 (1051 (971 Actual 55 Level of Service 89.4% 91.855 92.055 90.155 90.655 91.355 92.355 95.055 95.455 95.855 96.955 98.155 100.655 97.255 9 655 96.1% 969% 99.0% 101.7% 101.8% 101.8% 1010% 102.1% 1034% 104.7% Annual Student 0nwhh Rate(3) 8.20% 2.68% 0.15% -1.88% 0.47% 0.78% 1.16% 2.86% 0.41% 0.52% 1.14% 1.16% 2.62% 2.73% -0.5. 41.50% 0.86% 2.16% 2.74% 0.03% 0.00% 41.75% 1.08% 1.28% 1.27% ....en district surpasses Schools APPO recommended Level of Service Vas..new its l ode.not e m-.Torlie.edelpare.in.sible.4 mewl Webs vb.pug ay ace.wpm Mos.....P.M.IMan Medal..114.7■•■Etlemitien W."&CM. CHCCS Student Projections(1) High School Year 1001-02 2002-03 2003-04 200505 200508 300807 1007-08 200809 2009-10 201041 201142 2012-13 201314 201415 201548 101517 2017-18 201849 2019-20 2020-31 2021-22 2022-23 202734 203475 202518 Actual 2 963 3 162 3 330 3422 3 514 3 520 3 635 3 630 3 606 3 640 3 714 3 796 3 764 3 730 3 701 Thoh. 3 752 3802 3 853 3 903 3954 4 004 4 055 4 105 4 158 4208 OC Plannin• 3 792 3 849 3 880 3 923 3934 4 032 4 100 4 168 4 249 4 332 10 Year Grow. 3 753 3 838 3 864 3 900 3 939 3 977 4 124 4 145 4 121 4 113 5 Year... 3 757 3 834 3850 3 839 3 853 3 875 3 999 4 016 3 983 3 964 earGrowfh CPO 3 73 3 77 3 371 3 70 39 3 78 3 3 3 Average 3.757 3.820 3.842 3657 3.883 3,917 4.013 4.041 4.045 4,058 Annual Chage-Increase(0eme821 in AMwl 8 PM..Membe.shipl 148 189 168 92 92 6 115 151 1241 34 74 82 1321 1001 (29) 56 63 22 35 96 28 3 13 Capacity.100%Level 47 Service 3,635 3,675 Number of 7124e518.Actual and 714i71e4.Over(Under)100%LOS 3(72 3127 3295 3387 3479 3185 3(2001 (205 3(2291 3(2351 31611 3(79 3(1111 3111 3(174( 3(1181 3(551 3(331 (181 3,8785 3,875 42 3,875 138 3,875 188 3,875 170 3183 110%Level of Service 3.339 0.000 7339 7338 3.339 0.000 4.218 4719 4.218 4.203 4.203 4,263 4,263 4.263 4.203 4,263 4,203 4.263 4763 4,263 4,203 4.203 4,263 4.203 4,263 Number of Students,Actual and Projected,over(Under)110%LOS (3761 (1771 (9) 83 178 182 (5841 (5891 (661 (6231 (549) (4871 (4991 (533) (5821 (505) (442) (420) (4001 (380) (345) (249) (221) (2181 (205) Actual-%Level of Service 97.6% 1042% 1097% 1128% 1158% 1160% 948% 947% 940% 939% 9 8% 9110% 97.1% 96.3% 95.5% Average- 97055 98855 99255 99.555 100.255 101.155 103655 104.355 104.4% 104.755 Annual Student Growth Rata(3) 6.28% 8.7255 6.3155 2.7855 2.89551 0.17551 3.2755 w-0.14% -0.88% 0.94% 2.0 2.21% -0.84% -1.74% -0.76% 1.52% 1.68% 0.57% 0.37% 0.67% 0.69% 2.44% 0.71% 0.06% 0.32% indicates when district 5urpas5616chools ASSO recommended Level of Service sdm.....mta17m7.ahem acammal.w•az I ou50)=xnh co sttlentcapariry Ah 12/15,015 Attachment 2 OCS Student Projections(1)(4) Elementary School Year 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-08 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Actual 2893 2901 2945 3016 3006 3072 3158 3185 3211 3285 3348 3403 3433 3259 3318 Tmchler(2) 3,388 3,413 3,461 3,508 3,556 3,603 3,651 3,698 3,746 3,793 OC Planning 3,376 3,438 3,491 3,548 3,602 3,657 3,712 3,767 3,822 3,886 10 Year Growth 3,306 3,250 3,242 3,234 3,299 3,332 3,365 3,399 3,433 3,467 5 Year Growth 3,289 3,221 3,203 3,191 3,252 3,285 3,318 3,351 3,384 3,418 3 Year Growth 3,288 3,218 3,199 3,181 3,240 3,273 3,305 3,338 3,372 3,406 Average 3,325 3,308 3,319 3,332 3,390 3,430 3,470 3,511 3,551 3,594 Annual Change-Increase(Decrease)in Actual&Projected Membership) (185) 8 44 71 (10) 88 86 7 46 74 63 55 30 (174) 59 7 (17) 11 13 58 40 40 40 41 43 Capacity-100%Level of Service 3,820 3,820 3,820 3,820 3,920 3,920 3,920 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 Number of Students,Actual and Projected,Over(Under)100%LOS (927) (919) (875) (804) (914) (848) (762) (529) (483) (409) (346) (291) (261) (435) (376) (369) (386) (375) (362) (304) (264) (224) (183) (143) (100) 105%Level of Service 4,011 4,011 4,011 4,011 4,116 4,116 4,116 3,879 879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 Number of Actual-%LeveloffSServvicemlaM Projected,Over(UMer)105%LOS (1,118) 757% (1,110) 759% (1,066) 1% 790% (1,110) 767% (1,044) 784% 806% 857% 869'. 889% 906% 9241% 929% 882% (561) 554) I5711 (560) 15471 (489) (449) (409) (368) (327) (285)1 90.0% 89.5% 89.9% 90.2% 91.8% 92.9% 93.9% 95.0% 96.1% 97.3% Annual Student Growth Rate(3) .6.01% 0.28% 1.52% 2.41% .0.33% new 0 20% 2.80rt nllz 0.22% 1.45% 2.30% 1.92% 1.64% 0.88% .5.07% 1.81% 0.21% .0.52% 0.34% 0.39% 1.73% 1.18% 1.18% 1.17% 1.16% 1.20% n .2 loo baougY Elena(.,school 1nPwmnt Note:re approved by B0CC indicates when district surpasses Schools APFO recommended Level of Service npacltynum'$are flCauon t2009SAWOTAC report of May 5,m 09,Gages Kai class scow reduced from 1:23.1:21 wen op..ofat6 eenebry 410. n e r men ma e e ro a ono. Mmlz Ww(toak.r P1ar1e91zetiv a acaon re:reduced clacks.) IA mennwaoameewmetmaem oeepwmnawednchhccsne aes.a el esna„nen pit,ersprminoteisinciyua neurere,o-pwmnuenotmaas. .you4mw9M81..aalnnl�owetaoar..00m.namo.e....Ca ztaonwMZGapaaeen,molesmazcaaa%MOwmn.ammoawcca e,n .0,,.....trweMA10..ale.... OCS Student Projections(1) Middle School Year 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 200405 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 201415 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Actual 1 527 1 631 1 671 1 593 1 590 1580 1 837 1 81 1 665 1 698 1 704 1 684 1 747 1 762 1 739 Tis filar(2) 1,764 1,789 1,814 1,839 1.84 1,888 1,913 1,938 1,963 1,988 OC Plannln9 1,769 1,806 1,844 1,884 1,924 1,984 2,004 2,027 2,051 2,073 10 Year Growth 1,733 1,780 1,858 1,870 1,761 1,735 1,709 1,761 1,779 1,796 5 Year Growth 1,726 1,756 1,821 1,822 1,705 1,670 1,838 1,888 1,703 1,720 3 Year Growth 1,724 1,751 1,812 1,815 1,699 1,663 1,627 1,672 1,688 1,705 Average 1,743 1,776 1,830 1,846 1,790 1,784 1,778 1,817 1,837 1,857 Annual Change-Increase(Decrease)In Actual&Projected Membership) 23 104 40 (78) (3) (10) 57 (36) 64 33 6 120) 63 15 123) 4 33 53 16 (56) (6) (6) 39 20 20 Capacity.100%Level of Service 1,466 1,466 1,466 1,466 1,466 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 2,166 Number of Students,Actual and Projected,Over(Under)100%LOS 61 165 205 127 124 (586) (529) (565) (501) (468) (462) (482) (419) (404) 1427) (423) (390) (336) (320) (376) (382) (388) (349) (329) (309) 107%Level of Service 1,569 1,569 1,569 1,569 1,569 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 2,318 Number of Students,Actual and Projected,Over(Under)107%LOS (42) 62 102 24 21 (738) (681) (717) (653) (620) (614) (634) (571) (556) (579) 574) (541) (488) (472) (527) (534) (539) (501) (481) (461) Actual-%Level of Service 104.2% 111.3% 114.0% 108.7% 108.5% 72.9% 75.6% 73.9% 76.9% 78.4% 78.7% 77.7% 80.7% 81.3% 80.3% Average-%Level of Service 80.5% 82.0% 84.5% 85.2% 82.7% 824% 82.1% 83.9% 848% 857% Annual Student Growth Rate(3) = 1.53% 6.81% 2.45% -467% -0.19% -0.63% 3.61% -2.20% 4.00% 1.98% 0.35% -1.17% 3.74% 0.86% -1.31% 0.24% 1.91% 3.00% 0.90% -3.02% -0.38% -0.33% 2.18% 1.09% 1.08% m vs opens n fah M.wen Mead...seats I indicates when district surpasses Schools APFO recommended Level of Service n m.n was a hm3e4etbnm...slo me........Nehaa•kr was. OCSStudent Projections(1).ma e3e11haNOamwmm�n�wMH 3P0.11 mum.kok. High School Year 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Actual 1 753 1828 1.887 2.057 2.124 2184 2201 2242 2 217 2222 2 283 2315 2421 282 2469 Tlsc4hler(21 2,504 Z540 2575 2,610 2,646 2,681 2,716 2,752 Z787 Z823 OCl or 2.511 2,542 2.581 2.621 2,660 2,78 2.740 2.796 2,853 2,902 10 Year Growth 2,478 2,491 2,422 2,478 2,540 2,548 2,621 2,541 2,478 2,461 5 Year Growth 2,506 2,549 2,487 2,523 2,566 2,557 2,616 2,524 2,444 2,414 3 Year Growth 2,519 2,574 2,522 2,564 2,605 2,593 2,653 2,580 2,477 2,444 Average 2,504 2,539 2,517 2,559 2,604 2,616 2,669 2,635 2,608 2,609 Annual Change•Increase(Decrease)in Actual&Projected Membership) 81 75 59 170 67 60 17 41 (25) 5 61 32 106 81 (33) 35 35 (22) 42 44 12 53 (35) (27) 1 Capacity-100%Level of Service 1,518 2,518 2,518 2,518 2,518 2,533 2,533 2,558 2,558 2,558 2,558 2,439 2,439 2,439 2,439 2,439 2,439 2,439 2,439 2,439 2,439 2,439 2,439 2,439 2,439 Number of Students,Actual and Projected,Over(Under)100%LOS 235 (690) (631) (46 1) (394) (349) (332) (316) (341) (336) (275) (124) (18) 63 30 65 100 70 120 165 177 230 196 169 170 110%Level of Service 1,670 2,770 2,770 2,770 2,770 2,786 2,786 2,814 2,814 2,814 2,814 2,683 683 2,683 2,683 2,683 2,683 2,683 2,683 2,683 2,683 2,683 2,683 2,683 2,683 Number of Students,Actual and Projected,Over(Under)110%LOS 83 (942) (883) (713) (646) (602)1 (585) (572) (597) (592) (531) (368) •1 (181) (214) 179) (144) (166) (124) (79) (67) (14) (48) (75) (74) Actual-%Level of Service 115.5% 72.6% 74.9% 81.7% 84.4% 86.2% 86.9% 87.6% 86.7% 869% 892% 949% 1026% 1012% Average-%Level of Service 1026% 10.1% 1032% 1049% 1067% 1072% 1094% 1080% 1069% 1070% Annual Student Growth Rate(3) 4.84% 4.28% 3.23% 9.01% 3.26% 2.82% 0.78% 1.86% -1.12% 0.23% 2.75% 1.40% 4.58% 3.35% -1.32% 1.40% 1.42% -0.86% 1.67% 1.73% 0.47%M!05% -1.30% -1.01% 0.03% Partner.Araeeny utema5re Sc....... Paner.p Academy ARereave 5CM1...Mal-cpauv.. indicates omen distract surpasses Schools APFO recommended Level of Service Orangewgh rawdaaecreased,per 4/11 41141, I 1.71 Arnuern...cu.,u.actual meneeisnip.yeas 2.1-02 trou.2015,end...membership.-yeas zo,-,tug.202.5-215