HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda - 11-10-2015 - 5 - Upper Neuse River Basin Association Update 1
ORANGE COUNTY
BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS
ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT
Meeting Date: November 10, 2015
Action Agenda
Item No. 5
SUBJECT: Upper Neuse River Basin Association Update
DEPARTMENT: Environment, Agriculture, PUBLIC HEARING: (Y/N) No
Parks and Recreation
(DEAPR)
ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT:
A. Falls Lake Watershed David Stancil, 919-245-2510
B. Excerpts from October 14, 2014 Tom Davis, 919-245-2510
Work Session Agenda Abstract
C. Water Quality Results Graph
D. Streamflow Comparison
E. UNRBA Project Schedule
PURPOSE: To receive information on recent activities of the Upper Neuse River Basin
Association (UNRBA).
BACKGROUND: The Upper Neuse River Basin Association (UNRBA), of which Orange
County is a member, is working on a multi-year effort (titled "The Path Forward") to revise Stage
II of the Falls Lake Nutrient Management Strategy (Falls Lake Rules). As currently written,
Stage II of the Falls Lake Rules requires local governments, the North Carolina Department of
Transportation (NCDOT), the agricultural community, and other regulated parties located in the
Falls Lake watershed (Attachment A) to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient loading to
Falls Lake by 40% and 77%, respectively. While the members of the UNRBA agree that
protecting Falls Lake as the City of Raleigh's water supply is paramount, the members also
agree that there are serious technical and financial impediments to meeting these nutrient
reduction goals.
Additional background information concerning the Falls Lake Rules, the underlying Consensus
Principles, estimated costs to comply with the Falls Lake Rules, and related information are
provided in Attachment B, excerpts from the agenda abstract from the October 14, 2014 Board
of County Commissioners work session.
The UNRBA continues to make progress on several important projects, including:
1. Lake and Watershed Water Quality Monitoring
2. BMP Nutrient Credit Development
3. Development of Nutrient Credit Calculation Tool
4. Falls Lake Rules Review
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1. Lake and Watershed Water Quality Monitoring
CardnoEntrix, the consultant working for the UNRBA, completed the first 12 months of water
quality sampling in July 2015. The Falls Lake Rules stipulate that in order for outside data to be
evaluated during the re-examination of Stage II of the Falls Lake Rules, a minimum of three
years of sampling data must be collected for the data to be considered by the Environmental
Management Commission (EMC). The UNRBA's water quality sampling program is producing
information for the following purposes:
♦ Determination of sources of nutrients in the watershed and the loading of nutrients
from individual jurisdictions to Falls Lake;
♦ Falls Lake response modeling;
♦ Development of data for consideration of additional regulatory options; and
♦ Linkage of water quality conditions in Falls Lake to the designated uses of the
Lake.
Attachment A identifies the locations of surface water sampling stations for both the
jurisdictional and lake tributary nutrient loading determination projects. All of the data collected
is available for review at the web site set up for this purpose: http:ffunrba-wgp.cardno.com/
Attachment C is an example of the results obtained from water quality samples collected in five
streams that feed into the northern end of Falls Lake. Fairly significant variations in these
nutrient concentrations are seen among the five streams, as well as over the course of the time
interval shown for two of the streams listed. Attachment D illustrates variations in the volume of
stream flow in three streams in the upper portion of the Falls Lake watershed. The combination
of nutrient concentration and rate of streamflow in each individual stream determines the
amount (loading) of nutrients entering Falls Lake, so a stream that contains a low concentration
of nutrients (such as Eno River) could actually contribute more nutrient loading if its streamflow
was significantly larger than a second stream with a higher concentration of nutrients (such as
Ellerbe Creek).
CardnoEntrix is also collecting data for the following Special Studies as part of the Falls Rules
re-examination process:
♦ Falls Lake Constriction Point Monitoring
♦ High Flow Monitoring
♦ Storm Event Sampling
♦ Sediment Sample Analysis
♦ Light Penetration Analysis
♦ Volatile Suspended Sediment Determination
♦ Survey of Recreational Use of Falls Lake
♦ Model Performance Evaluation
♦ Evaluation of Regulatory Options to Falls Lake Rules
2. BMP Nutrient Credit Development
CardnoEntrix is continuing to work on a project to develop nutrient reduction Best Management
Practice (BMP) credits. The project will be beneficial to UNRBA member governments
(including Orange County) by increasing the number of structural devices and other stormwater
practices with known nutrient reduction values. These BMPs will then be available for affected
parties to use to meet the required nutrient reduction goals under Stages I and 11 of the Falls
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Lake Rules. This is sometimes referred to as increasing the number of nutrient reduction
measures available in the "BMP tool box". Subject matter experts are developing nutrient credit
values and practice standards for three "batches" of BMPs:
BMP Batch 1: Infiltration Devices
Filter Strips
Soil Amendment
BMP Batch 2: Bioretention Devices
Land Conservation
Pervious Area Nutrient Management
Batch 3: Livestock Exclusion
Riparian Buffers
Elimination of Illicit Discharges
After CardnoEntrix develops draft nutrient credits and practice standards for each of these
BMPs, the NC Division of Water Resources (DWR) will evaluate this information and determine
what nutrient reduction credit is appropriate for each BMP. Once this process is completed,
affected parties, including local governments, will be able to utilize these BMPs to meet required
nutrient reduction targets.
3. Development of Nutrient Credit Calculation Tool
Also ongoing is the development of a spreadsheet-based tool for local governments to calculate
nutrient reduction credits for specific on-site nutrient reduction measures, as well as for more
regional programmatic practices such as street sweeping or fertilizer management. This tool will
allow municipalities in the watershed to evaluate the impact of various nutrient reduction devices
and practices at different locations in the watershed, allowing local governments to determine
the most cost-effective means of meeting required nutrient reductions.
4. Falls Lake Rules Review
The Regulatory Reform Act of 2013 (HB74) mandated that all State rules expire within ten years
of their effective dates, unless readopted. Currently, DWR is concluding an informal comment
period for the Falls Lake Rules, which will be followed in 2016 by a public comment period.
UNRBA is working to develop comments on the Falls Lake Rules that all UNRBA members can
agree on. Several UNRBA local governments, including Orange County, have already
submitted informal comments concerning these rules.
A tentative schedule for ongoing UNRBA tasks is included as Attachment E. As can be seen
from this schedule, the UNRBA anticipates continuing the studies discussed herein for the next
several years. Stage II of the Falls Rules is the period extending from 2021 to 2036, with the
overall goal of meeting nutrient related water quality standards throughout Falls Lake by 2041.
This schedule may change as a result of the Rules Review process that is underway.
FINANCIAL IMPACT: There is no financial impact to the County at this time. Given the
extensive process underway concerning the re-examination of Stage II of the Falls Lake Rules
and the water quality analysis included in this process, it is expected that UNRBA dues will
remain elevated for several years.
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SOCIAL JUSTICE IMPACT: The following Orange County Social Justice Goal is applicable to
this agenda item:
• GOAL: ESTABLISH SUSTAINABLE AND EQUITABLE LAND-USE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES
The fair treatment and meaningful involvement of people of all races, cultures, incomes
and educational levels with respect to the development and enforcement of
environmental laws, regulations, policies, and decisions. Fair treatment means that no
group of people should bear a disproportionate share of the negative environmental
consequences resulting from industrial, governmental and commercial operations or
policies.
The Path Forward Project to re-examine the Falls Lake Rules is underway, at least in part,
because of the cost that would be incurred by residents in the watershed to comply with the
Rules.
RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends that the Board consider this information
and provide feedback and guidance as desired.
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Attachment A. Falls Lake watershed. Lake loading and jurisdictional
boundary water quality sampling locations shown
Giro NVILLE
4
.. lno fc.° • O �j .may ."Y.. t .. i....
a
Monitoring Locatiana Active USGS Gages r � �.�•'
F Lake Loading Silas ■ discharge �•"c'��
dunsdic6onal Boundary Sites A Stage DOW4AM ,
NPDES Permits
O Major �Falls Lake VJelershed
• MmOr Municipal 8mrbderie3
UNRBA •�\-Y J/
Monitoring L� Cardna
�nrn4lx
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Attachment B. Excerpts from October 14, 2014 UNRBA Agenda Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Falls Lake Nutrient Management Strategy (Falls Lake Rules) require
local governments, the NCDOT, the agricultural community, and other regulated parties located
in the Falls Lake watershed (Attachment 1) to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient loading
to the lake by 40% and 77% respectively by 2036. Regulated parties anticipate significant
financial and technical difficulties with meeting the mandated nutrient reduction targets. The
fiscal note prepared by the State at the time the Falls Lake Rules were developed estimated the
cost of compliance with the rules to be at least $1.5 billion. Many affected parties believe the
phosphorus reduction goal of 77% is not attainable at any cost.
As a result of the challenges with meeting the goals of the Falls Lake Rules, the Upper Neuse
River Basin Association (UNRBA), of which Orange County is a member, is working to revise
Stage II of the Falls Lake Rules. The activities of the UNRBA are guided by the Consensus
Principles, which have been adopted by nearly all of the jurisdictions in the Falls Lake
watershed, including the Orange County BOCC on March 16, 2010 (Attachment 2). The
Consensus Principles emphasize the protection of Falls Lake as a water supply for the City of
Raleigh, while also stating the need for re-examination of Stage II of the Falls Lake Rules.
Consensus Principles
Consensus Principle #9 includes the following with regard to the development of the Falls Lake
Rules: "...relied on a limited data base which will be substantially enhanced by a more rigorous
program of sampling, monitoring and analysis." Furthermore: "The EMC [Environmental
Management Commission] should therefore begin a re-examination of its nutrient management
strategy for Falls Lake by January 1, 2018. The re-examination should consider, among other
things, (i) the physical, chemical, and biological conditions of the Lake with a focus on nutrient
loading impacts and the potential for achieving the Stage 1 goal by 2021 as well as the
feasibility of both achieving the Stage 2 reduction goals and meeting the water quality standard
for chlorophyll-a in the Upper Lake, (ii) the cost of achieving, or attempting to achieve, the Stage
2 reduction goals and meeting the water quality standard for chlorophyll-a in the Upper Lake,
(iii) the existing uses in the Upper Lake and whether alternative water quality standards would
be sufficient to protect those existing uses...".
Consensus Principle 10 states: "The limited resources available to DWQ [Division of Water
Quality, now Division of Water Resources - DWR] and DENR [Department of Environment and
Natural Resources] for the implementation of the nutrient management strategy and the need
for a robust and active sampling and monitoring program, as well as additional modeling, make
it desirable for the affected local governments to share resources and undertake these
important activities, and other activities associated with the re-examination of the Nutrient
Management Strategy, collectively. The affected local governments should share resources
and assist with funding for the examination of the Nutrient Management Strategy."
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Attachment B. Continued
UNRBA Projects
Given the challenges with meeting Stage II of the Falls Lake Rules, as well as the guidelines
outlined in the Consensus Principles document, the UNRBA is already either working on, or is
planning to begin, the following projects:
• Estimation of nutrient sources and jurisdictional loading of nutrients to Falls Lake
• Modeling the response of Falls Lake to nutrient input and internal lake processes
• Monitoring of changes in the lake as a result of compliance activities in the watershed
• The linkage of water quality conditions to the designated uses of Falls Lake
• Estimation of BMP credits for measures without DWR-established credits
• Support of various options under the existing regulatory framework in North Carolina
The UNRBA has retained a consultant to help examine options for meeting the requirements of
Stage II the Falls Lake Rules while incorporating the goals of the Consensus Principles.
According to the Framework for a Re-examination of Stage 11 of the Falls Nutrient Strategy
prepared by the consultant, CardnoEntrix: "The re-examination should consider existing data,
models, nutrient management strategies, the Consensus Principles, water quality standards
(including designated uses and water quality criteria), implementation costs, and regulatory
flexibility."
Water Quality Sampling
During July 2014, CardnoEntrix received approval from DWR for three required technical
memoranda that had been prepared and submitted for DWR review that describe in detail the
watershed sampling project that will form the foundation of the re-examination process:
• Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP)
• Falls Lake Watershed Monitoring Plan
• Modeling Framework
The QAPP and the Monitoring Plan describe the three to five year watershed sampling effort
that was initiated in August 2014. The water quality sampling program will provide information
for the following purposes:
• Determination of nutrient source allocation and jurisdictional nutrient loading to Falls
Lake;
• Falls Lake response modeling;
• Development of data for consideration of additional regulatory options; and
• Linkage of water quality conditions in Falls Lake to the designated uses of the Lake.
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Attachment B. Continued
Modeling Data Gaps
UNRBA re-modeling of Falls Lake is expected to start in approximately 2 years, and is intended
to update the lake response model that DWQ utilized in the development of the Falls Lake
Rules. The UNRBA contractor identified several gaps in the data used by DWQ in the modeling
completed during the development of the Falls Lake Rules, including:
• DWQ held constant the total organic carbon and chlorophyll-a input values assumed for
the tributaries feeding into Falls Lake. These concentrations were based on levels
measured within the lake, not in the tributaries. It is probable that these concentrations
were artificially high to begin with and were unable to decrease at all over the course of
the modeling study.
• There are no stream gages on any of the streams that flow into Falls Lake east of I-85,
thus no flow information was incorporated for any of these 12 streams.
• Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen in the lake or watershed was not accounted for by
DWQ.
• Streambank erosion, possibly a significant source of phosphorus in the watershed, was
not considered as a possible source by DWQ.
• Internal lake processes, such as sediment re-suspension, were also not accounted for by
DWQ.
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Attachment C. Graph of water quality sample Nitrate (as Nitrite)
concentrations
Nitrate-Nitrite as N, mg/I From i i . To 2015-10-1
Qj
r r ' r r
Legend:
ELC-3.1 Ellerbe Creek at Glenn Road, Durham County yellow
ENR-23 Eno River at Cole Mill Road, Durham County
FLR-5.0 Flat River at Old Oxford Highway, Durham County green
KRC-4.5 Knap of Reeds Creek at SGWASA WWTP, Granville County M
NLR-27 North Fork Little River at New Sharon Church Road light blue
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Attachment D. Graph comparing streamflow in the Eno River, Knap of
Reeds Creek and Ellerbe Creek
Streamflow, cubic feet per second
600
600
400
200 -
]an-16 Feb-1 Feb-15 Mar-1 Mar-16 Apr-1 Apr-16 May-1
2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015
Legend:
Eno River gage at Hillsborough —
Knap of Reeds Creek gage near Butner - _
Ellerbe Creek at Club Boulevard —
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Attachment E. UNRBA Falls Lake Rules Stage II re-examination
process schedule
Tasks 2013 2014 2 15 2,1 0:7 2018 2019 2020
Complete Monitoring
Program CIAPP and
DWR review and
approval
Conduct Monitoring
Clpnon a l 5th year of
Monitoring
Preliminary Revisions
to EFDC Model and
inputs
Develop full model
framework
DWR review full model
framework
Final Revisions to EFDC
model and inputs
Recalculate Stage I I
Load Reductions using
Revised EFDC model
NCDWR Review of
M ode!Revisions
Figure 3 Potential Schedule for the nutrient response model refinements and Re
examination of Stage II of the Falls Lake Rules