HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda - 05-01-2008-4h6HAPEL HILL-
ARRBORO
To: Neil Pedersen
From: Steve Scroggs
Re: Elementary Number 11 and SAPFO
Date: April 16, 2008
As per your request, I am including my analysis of the schedule for construction of
Elementary 11 and the impact on SAPFO and the awarding of Certificates of Adequate
Public Schools (CAPS).
Construction Schedule
As the attached chart indicates, an opening in August of 2010 is now an impossibility.
Funding, site selection, architect selection, and four months of the town approval process
would have to have been completed by now for that schedule to be viable. As the chart also
indicates, we need to be progressing quickly if we are to stay on schedule for an August 2011
opening date. Direction from the Board on site selection will be the first step. The schedule is
for a building designed from scratch. Some time could be saved if a prototype facility,
Scroggs, Rashkis or another version, were used. The time saved is in schematic design and
development. The amount of time saved could be as much as six months but that is still not
enough time to get to a 2010 opening.
Impact on SAPFO and CAPS
The chart also illustrates the impact of opening in 2011 on SAPFO and CAPS. A brief
explanation of the bottom chart lines is provided.
School Year: August to June each calendar year
~ SAPFO Year: November 15 to November 14 in each year
Town Approval Process: The estimated time it takes to get project approval from the
town. Single family projects would be quicker, larger projects would take longer.
Construction Documents: Once a CUP and ZCP are approved, then construction
documents must be approved before construction can begin.
Building Permit: Once the construction documents are approved then a building
permit is issued.
Construction: 12 months has been allocated for construction, small projects will be
faster, large projects longer.
Average Single Family Detached: This is the estimated number of students generated
by CAPS approved during the past three years for single family detached housing.
Average Other: This is the estimated number of students generated by condos,
apartments or multi family units approved in the past three years. It is important to note
that the major projects including Greenbridge, East 54, Chapel Watch, Homestead
Twins, Ballentine, and Chapel Hill Lot 5 all already have their CAPS.
Average Other: Using the SAPFO projections for elementary growth, this is the
estimated number of students who would move into existing housing within the
district. It should be noted that there have been major increases in apartment
enrollments in the past several years.
• Total elementary growth: This is projected elementary growth far the SAPFO year on
November 15 of that year.
• Available Capacity at 105%: This represents the SAPFO capacity of the elementary
schools at 105% using the capacity of schools with a 1 to 21 ration in grades K-3 and 1
to 26 in grades 4 and 5.
• Projected Enrollment: This is the SAPFO approved projected elementary enrollment
• Available Seats: This represents the remaining capacity in the elementary schools
before reaching 105%.
CAPS: If the projections are correct, then would a CAPS be issued if capacity remains.
In both 2009 and 2010 SAPFO years, there is available capacity for approving CAPS. This
includes the estimated number of students generated by CAPS issued previously. This
changes if growth is much larger than expected.
In 2009-10, based on the average generation rate, there are 1,450 units of CAPS available.
The. three year average of CAPS units is 444 units. That would indicate that the issuance of
CAPS should not be a problem for the next two years.
The question arises in 2010 as to whether CAPS will be denied if elementary 11 is pushed
back to an opening date of 2011. If funding is provided to open elementary 11 in August of
2011, additional capacity can be added at that time. Based an the estimated time it takes to
complete the town approval process and finish construction, projects starting the town
approval process after December 2009 would most likely get certificates of occupancy after
June of 2011. These CAPS would be approved based on the increased capacity that the
opening of elementary 11 would provide. With available capacity in the 2009-10 years, na
CAPS would be denied.
This scenario is based on projections, any larger than expected increase in enrollment could
change the availability. That said, the change in the admission date for kindergarten must
also be considered. The ,State of NC has changed the date that students must be age five
before they can enroll. That change will move the October 16 cutoff date to August 31
starting in the 2009-10 school year. Projections indicate that 80 fewer students would enroll
in Kindergarten that year thus increasing available capacity. Consequently, there would be a
rise in enrollment in the 2010-11 school year. CAPS requested during the 2010-11 school
year would be applied to the 2011-12 capacity with elementary 11 on schedule to open, thus
the impact of that increase would be minimal.
The projected level of service in 2010-2011 is projected to be 10b.$ o-o. This is similar to the
LOS before Rashkis opened.
Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions.
Lincoln Center, 750 S. Merritt Mill Road Chapel Hill, NC 27516-2878 a (919) 967-8211 • www.nc~cs.kl2.nc.us