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Home My WebLink AboutAgenda - 11-19-2014 - 5aORANGE COUNTY ASSEMBLY OF GOVERNMENTS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: November 19, 2014 Action Agenda Item No. 5 -a SUBJECT: Rural Buffer and Countywide Population Projections DEPARTMENT: Planning PUBLIC HEARING: (Y /N) No ATTACHMENT(S): 1. JPA Land Use Map 2. Courtesy Review Map 3.a. Imagine 2040 Results (Population & Dwelling Units) Map 3.b. Imagine 2040 Results (Employment) Map 4. Rural Buffer Summary Statistics 5. Orange County 2010 Density Map 6. 2014 Use Value Program Map INFORMATION CONTACT: Craig Benedict, Planning Director, 919- 245 -2592 1 PURPOSE: To review some statistics and conditions of the Rural Buffer as it relates to population projections for the county and rural buffer. BACKGROUND: The Rural Buffer (RB) is a zoning area within the Chapel Hill / Carrboro / Orange County Joint Planning Area (JPA) that was formulated in 1987. This 36,958 acre area is an area that is under the jurisdiction of Orange County planning with JPA agreement land uses that are primarily rural and lower density residential. The JPA RB area is outside of the urban services boundary where public water and sewer would not be provided (pursuant to the county -wide agreement known as the Water and Sewer Management and Planning Boundary Agreement (WASMPBA)) and where annexation would not occur. Large tracts of land within this area are under the control of Duke Forest and also within the use value program (i.e. Farms and Forestry). Farmland has diminished countywide and this trend is reflected in the Rural Buffer. The attached Summary Statistics (Attachment 4) note some of the changes in demographics over the last twenty years, as well as, what population modeling (Community Viz exercise by the Durham - Chapel Hill- Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan) has forecast for the area. Although pressures for residential development at lower densities have been relatively modest in the area, the decreasing available supply of land in the nearby cities are projected to prompt a shift (where possible) to the Rural Buffer. County Planning Staff will explain some expected trends. FINANCIAL IMPACT: No financial impact related to the receipt of this report. RECOMMENDATION(S): The County Manager recommends the Boards receive the report and provide comments as appropriate. Attachment 1 Orange County - Chapel Hill - Carrboro JOINT PLANNING AREA - LAND USE PLAN Orange County Planning Department Information Services Division �:omrt.M.r. + +9r � C•n '.'D°"°'°rrrr`�.m�m.m°,",,.:w's Rw.s°o ,. qo «mnrr �>•.. pafNb+�NOmp. Mr/M+•1 .� 0 d.a1+NaMrnrrp.YManyrr niri� a�oea.,,ru a..u..rw GIe Map Pr1Pw"by h lrram Cdaman, hie Prajaa Coxd valor Dare: 04MW 0 1 2 3 4 loommommonow- Orange County Planning and Inspections Department GIS Map Updated and Printed by Miriam Coleman, March 28, 2008 �I W IS I-1 Parcels University Lake Watershed Res"" ProtecUon PubiclPrivate Open Space Future UNC Deveiapment Extractive Use Disposal Use Retai Trade kraed Use, Ofice Emphasis Chapel HST TranIMon Transition Area 1, Carrbwo 5 Transition Area 2, G-bwa 1l University Lake Cdint Area ]MIlleS Rural Butter Planning Jraisdiotion UWn 0.1 Jurisddw Alamance Attachment 2 Areas Covered by Courtesy Review Agreements 3 Caswell Rural Buffer Joint Planning Agreement Courtesy Review City Limits' ETJ' Orange CountylHillsborough Courtesy Review Courtesy Review Area Boundary (Review by Hillsborough) Orange CountylDurham Courtesy Review -Durham County (Reveiw by Orange County) Orange County (Reveiw by Durham County) Joint Planning Agreement Courtesy Reveiw -Carrboro Transition (Reveiw by Orange County) Chapel Hill Transition (Reveiw by Orange County) Person Durham ' Hillsborough is the only area 15 where Orange County performs Courtesy Review in the Town 501 Limits and ET,. - -_--------- --- _ —__ -_ N 1 in = 3 miles Chatham �®: mMiles Orange County Planning and InspecUcris Brian Carson (1112212014) Attachment 3a Imagine 2040 Results (Population &Dwelling Units) a Location 2010 Pop 2040 Pop Population Increase %Increase 2010 Dwelling Units 2040 Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Increase %Increase Carrboro 19,978 22,425 2,447 12.25 10,341 10,428 87 0.84 Chapel Hill 59,512 79,523 20,011 33.63 21,885 30,685 8,800 40.21 County 29,852 44,158 14,306 47.92 12,177 18,300 6,123 50.28 Hillsborough 10,579 22,973 12,394 117.16 5,073 10,068 4,995 98.46 Mebane 4,070 6,541 2,471 60.71 1,725 2,743 1,018 59.01 Rural Buffer 1 11,106 25,161 14,055 126.551 4,712 10,183 5,471 116.11 Total 1 135,097 200,781 65,684 48.621 55,913 82,407 26,494 47.38 City Limits ETJ IkL FLUM Rural Buffer TAZ Carrboro Chapel Hill County Hillsborough Mebane /Efland Rural Buffer Transition Imagine 2040 Data Source: Imagine 2040 - CommunityViz Model (December 2013) - Matt Noonkester N 1 in = 31 miles 0 1 Miles Orange County Planning and Inspections Brian Carson (11/11/2014) City Limits ETJ FLUM Rural Buffer TAZ Carrboro Chapel Hill County Hillsborough Mebane /Efland Rural Buffer Transition Attachment 3b Imagine 2040 Results (Employment) 5 Location 2010 Employment 2040 Employment Employment Increase % Increase Carrboro 4,879 8,060 3,181 65.20 Chapel Hill 53,040 81,325 28,285 53.33 County 3,317 7,704 4,387 132.26 Hillsborough 6,935 18,763 11,828 170.56 Mebane 1,453 1,996 543 37.37 Rural Buffer 1,360 2,426 1,066 78.38 Total 70,984 120,2741 49,2901 69.44 Imagine 2040 Data Source: Imagine 2040 - CommunityViz Model (December 2013) - Matt Noonkester N 1 in = 31 miles 0 1 Miles Orange County Planning and Inspections Brian Carson (11/11/2014) 0 Attachment 4 RURAL BUFFER SUMMARY STATISTICS Established; 1987 per JPA Total Area 36,958 acres Zoning Rural Buffer (RB) RB 1 DU / 5 AC* (University Lake) 15,400 acres RB 1 DU / 2 AC (Jordan Lake) 21,558 acres Use Value Area (Farm & Forest) 1990 — 11,800 acres± 2002 — 10,970 acres 2014 — 10,206 acres Population (Rural Buffer approx.) 2010 Units-4,712 Population — 11,106 (DCHC MPO MTP) 2040 Units — 10,183 I Increase 116% Population — 25,161 Increase 127% Orannp- C;nijnty 20110 Pnnijlatinn np -nSity Attachment ----------- - - - - -- ------------------------------------------ -- - - - - -- I I I 49 157 I I I I I I I I I I 86 1 57 ' I I I , I , I I I I I I Ij I1 �� • I I I � 1 70 I W.TM' ! 70 y 86 I I I I I 15 I 501 .il I � 54 ` ! `� r 154 I I 15 1 1 501 _ — -- - - -- _- _- - -_ - -_ - -11 Rural Buffer Census 2010 Blocks People /Acre 0.000 - 0.2500 0.2501 - 0.5000 0.5001 - 1.000 1.001 - 5.000 5.001 - 10.00 - 10.01 - 50.00 �- => 50.01 J 9 n 14 l l se- Va I i, P Attachment 6 i 751 86 goo 0 0 Q Q� 0 0 Q � 0 d 15 501 54 I' 00 0 i i 0 54 o 0 15 --- - - - - -- - ------- - - - - -- ____________ � 501 _ \ N 1 in = 1.66 miles 2014 Parcels (Usevalue > 0) 10,206 acres — o 0 1 Mile Future Land Use Rural Buffer Orange County Planning and Inspections Brian Carson (11/11/2014)