HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda - 02-05-2008-4lI
ORANGE COUNTY
BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS
ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT
Meeting Date: February 5, 2008
Action Agenda
Item No.
SUBJECT: Contract for Public Survey for Local Revenue Options Referendum
DEPARTMENT: County Manager
ATTACHMENT(S):
Proposed Contract
Telephone Survey
PUBLIC HEARING: (Y/N) No
INFORMATION CONTACT:
Greg Wilder or Rod Visser, 919-245-
2300
PURPOSE: To approve a contract with Hertzog Research, LLC, to conduct a telephone survey
of likely Orange County voters regarding their attitudes towards the possible implementation of
an additional one-quarter cent sales tax or a .4% land transfer tax on real property transactions.
BACKGROUND: As part of a comprehensive and complicated "swap" of county and state
revenue sources approved by the North Carolina General Assembly during its 2007 Session,
the legislature authorized county Boards of Commissioners to enact one of two new local
revenue sources, subject to voter approval in each county considering implementation of the
new revenue source. Commissioners may conduct a referendum on a land transfer tax (of up to
four-tenths percent, in one-tenth increments), a one-quarter cent additional sales tax, or both.
Commissioners can only implement one of the two taxes if voters approve both. In Fall 2007,
the Orange County Commissioners indicated their intention to place one or both revenue
options on the May 2008 ballot for voter approval.
During their January 16, 2008 work session, the Board of Commissioners discussed the
potential utility of arranging for a survey regarding the level of voter support at this time for each
of the available revenue options. Polling data could assist the Board in determining which
revenue option, or both, to include on the May ballot. The current timeline for the Board to make
a decision on what to include as the subject of a May 6, 2008 referendum is at the February 19,
2008 regular meeting.
In coordination with the Chair, Vice Chair, and Manager, staff have solicited a proposal to
conduct a 5-minute telephone survey of approximately 400 likely Orange County voters from
Hertzog Research, LLC, based in Carrboro. The firm's principal, Dr. Mark Hertzog, did similar
research and a presentation of the results on behalf of Durham County in August 2007. Dr.
Hertzog's work comes highly recommended by Durham County staff. The quoted cost of the
research and presentation is $9,985.
Because of the extremely tight timeframe involved in obtaining timely and meaningful polling
data for the February 19 BOCC meeting, the final version of the survey (copy attached) had to
be established, following review and comment by the Manager, Chair, and Vice-Chair, on
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January 30. Telephone survey work will begin on February 6, and Dr. Hertzog will make a
presentation of the findings at the Board's February 19 meeting.
The polling approach to be used by Hertzog Research and its field partner, FGI Research, will
allow for adjustments to ensure that adequate representation of demographic subgroups will
appear in the final data. The Orange County voter registration database will be cross-
referenced against telephone company landline records to provide phone numbers at which
voters can be contacted. There are severe federal fines applicable to parties who make
unsolicited phone calls to cell numbers through the use of predictive dialing. As cellular
telephone numbers are by their nature unlisted, any registered voter who uses only cell phone
communications (statistically, this tends to be about 7 percent of a given population) will not be
contacted.
FINANCIAL IMPACT: The BOCC-approved 2007-08 budget does not include funding
specifically earmarked for the voter survey. The BOCC approved $17,500 in its contingency
fund in the original 2007-08 budget and has not appropriated any of that sum to date.
The County has not been a frequent user of commissioned polling data. However, as a point of
reference, the quotation of $9,985 for Hertzog Research's 5 minute survey of approximately 400
registered, likely voters is similar to the $9,850 cost that Orange County paid for polling work in
January 1992 in preparation for what became the November 1992 school bond referendum.
Preliminary estimates provided by the North Carolina Association of County Commissioners
suggest that based on historical patterns, Orange County could expect additional annual sales
tax revenue of roughly $3.0 million, or annual proceeds of approximately $4.0 million from a .4
percent land transfer tax, if approved by voters and implemented by the Board of
Commissioners.
RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends that the Board:
1. approve the agreement with Hertzog Research in the amount of $9,985;
2. authorize the Manager to execute the agreement; and
3. direct staff to prepare a budget amendment that will appropriate funds from the
Commissioners' contingency account to cover the cost of the agreement.
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OHERT'ZOG RESEARCH
FULL SERVICE RESEARCH CONTRACT/NG
601 JONES FERRY ROAD, SUITE N7, CARRBORO, NC 27510
(919) 960-3904
www. H ERTZOGRESEARCH.COM
24 January 2008
Mr. Rod Visser
Project Manager
County of Orange
1-visser@co.orange.nc..us
RE: Proposal to Conduct Citizen Research on Possible Referendum Questions
(Quotation 080124-1)
Dear Rod:
Thank you for giving Hertzog Research the opportunity to work with you on this project
for Orange County. This letter outlines my understanding of the project specifications, based on
our discussion of earlier today, and our proposed timeline and price based on a survey employing
an 8-minute questionnaire, and one using a shorter, 5-minute questionnaire as well.
Synopsis
Our understanding is that Orange County considers it essential to have the results of
this survey project available for the Board of County Commissioners' meeting on Tuesday, 19
February 2008.
The Orange County government seeks to determine the level of citizen support for two
possible tax increases to generate needed revenue, either of which must be authorized by the
citizens at referendum:
o A land transfer tax of up to 0.4% on the price of real estate, payable by the seller at the
time of sale; and/or
o An increase in the sales tax rate of $0.0025, authorized by recent state legislation.
To. Mr. Rod Visser -2-
County of Orange
Referendum Survey Proposal
24 January 2008
In addition, the County wishes to assess:
(a) What effect there would be on support for either tax proposal by placing both
measures on the ballot at the same time; and
(b) Which demographic or attitudinal groups of likely Orange County voters use
which media outlets to obtain news and information about local affairs.
Assumptions
o The questionnaire will be between approximately 5 minutes and 8 minutes in length, with
no more than one open-ended verbatim question.
o We assume 400 completed interviews with registered Orange County voters who are at
least somewhat likely to vote in the primary election currently scheduled for 6 May 2008.
The overall margin of error is slightly below +/- 5%. Analysis within a subgroup of one-
third of residents (roughly 133 persons) would have a margin of error of about +/- 9%.
o IMPORTANT. Owing to the limited time frame for interviewing, we will make
our best effort to obtain 400 interviews; but if the deadline makes this impossible,
we shall obtain as close to 400 interviews as is possible. The overall margin of
error for 350 completed interviews would be +l- 5.5%.
o A random sample of registered voters will be drawn from the master voter registration list
provided by the Orange County Board of Elections, from all voter precincts in rough
proportion to each precinct's share of registered voters in the county as a whole. We will
match these sample names against telephone listings to determine current home phone
numbers, to the extent current listed numbers are available.
o Respondents reached will be screened to confirm whether they still live in Orange County,
in which zip code area, and whether they are at least somewhat likely to vote in the May
2008 primary election.
o We shall monitor and make adjustments in respondent selection to assure that those
contacted roughly reflect the registered voters of the county with regard to gender, race,
age group, residence in a given zip code area, and, if the County so desires, residence
1+
within a given municipality.
To. Mr. Rod Visser -3-
County of Orange
Referendum Survey Proposal
24 January 2008
o Once interviewing is completed, preliminary top-line results will be delivered within 24
hours.
o The other deliverables will require 4. to 5 business days to produce, to allow sufficient
time for coding of verbatim responses, accurate output and tabulation of data, data
analysis, complete and accurate reporting, and quality assurance at all of these steps.
o Results will be delivered to you or your designee, for presentation to the Board of County
Commissioners, in a presentation-quality MS PowerPoint report in time for the Board's
meeting on Tuesday, 19 February.
Project Timeline
5
e Hertzog Research will work with Orange County on questionnaire drafting, and will obtain
the most recent list of registered voters from the Board of Elections.
o IMPORTANT. In order to meet Orange County's deadline for report delivery,
anal questionnaire approval must be obtained no later than 12:00 noon on
Wednesday, 30 January 2008. No further substantive changes to the
questionnaire, other than simple text corrections, can be made after that time
without slippage in the deadline and an increase in cost.
• Assuming the above deadline is kept, interviewing will begin Wednesday, 6 February, and
will continue through Tuesday evening, 12 February, unless the quota of 400 interviews is
met before that time.
Hertzog Research will deliver to Orange County a brief "top-line" report of preliminary
results no later than end-of-day Wednesday, 13 February.
Hertzog Research will deliver the draft PowerPoint report, and a set of clean, complete,
and correct data tables, to Orange County on Tuesday, 19 February, in time for the Board
of County Commissioners' meeting.
• I will also be happy to meet with your senior management team to discuss the findings,
work with your team on desired revisions, and to present or assist in presenting the
findings (if you so desire) to your Board of County Commissioners.
To. Mr. Rod Visser -4-
County of Orange
Referendum Survey Proposal
24 January 2008
Price and Terms
Based on the assumptions above, our all-inclusive price for this project would be:
OPTION 1: For a questionnaire of roughly 8 minutes in length, $11,675.00.
OPTION 2: For a questionnaire of roughly 5 minutes in length, $9,985.00.
These prices include all questionnaire development, project management, programming,
purchase of the voter registration list, sample selection and telephone number matching,
interviewer training on the project, telephone interviewing, coding and firll reporting of verbatim
responses, data management and data deliverables, statistical analysis, reporting of results, and
quality assurance at all stages of the project.
One-half of the agreed amount (either Option 1 or Option 2) will be due and payable upon
acceptance of this proposal, and the remaining one-half will be due and payable upon delivery of
the draft PowerPoint report. Terms are 30-day net.
NOTE: These prices assume 400 completed interviews. In the event we cannot obtain
400 completed interviews because of the abbreviated deadline, the prices above will be reduced
by $11.27 per interview not completed (assuming an 8-minute questionnaire), or $9.75 per
interview not completed (assuming a 5-minute questionnaire). Such deductions will be made
from the final invoice amount.
Please let me know when you've had a chance to review this proposal in detail and advise
me as soon as possible of any needed changes in assumptions, deliverables, or schedule. You may
contact me by phone at 919-960-3904, or by reply email at marls c ,hertzogresearch.com. Thanks
very much again for considering us, and I look forward to (hopefiilly) working with you on this
project.
Yours sincerely,
Accepted for Orange County:
Marls Wm. Hertzog, Ph.D., Principal
Hertzog Research, LLC
Laura M. Blackmon
County Manager
Date:
HERTZOG RESEARCH, LLC
PROJECT NO. 8005
ORANGE COUNTY GOVERNMENT
CITIZEN SURVEY ON TAX MEASURES
FGI #163-1007 February 2008
Final Questionnaire: Wednesday, 30 January 2008
METHODOLOGICAL NOTES
Required: 400 completed interviews total (or as close thereto as possible within the time
frame available for interviewing) from registered and likely voters in Orange County.
Screeners below are to verify that we have the right respondent (the registered voter, not for
example a teenage child of the same name), that s/he lives in and is registered to vote in Orange
County, and will or may vote in the May 2008 primary election.
Quotas: Completed interviews should closely approximate Orange County's actual voter turnout
in the November 2006 general election, with regard to age categories, race, and gender. It
should also approximate the Orange County voter registration list with regard to geographic
dispersion.
Sample Source: A random sample of several thousand registered voters, roughly proportional
to each precinct's share of the total county voter registration base, will be drawn by FGI
Research from the registered voters' database provided by the Orange County Board of
Elections. Phone numbers will be appended to the sample by FGI Research.
Fields Needed in Sample File: "NAME:_FIRST," "NAME:-LAST," "ZIP," "PRECINCT,"
"AGE," "RACE-CODE," "GENDER CODE," "MUNICIPALITY."
QUESTIONNAIRE SCRIPT
INTRO 1:
Hello, may I please speak with [RESTORE "NAME:-FIRST" AND "NAME:-LAST" FROM
SAMPLE]?
[IF ASKED WHY CALLING:] I'm calling on behalf of the Orange County government.
We're conducting a brief survey of Orange County residents. This will only take about five
minutes.
1. Yes, speaking [CONTINUE WITH INTRO2.]
2. Yes, available [CONTINUE WITH INTRO2 WHEN RESPONDENT
COMES TO PHONE.]
3. No, not available [DETERMINE CALLBACK AVAILABILITY]
Orange County Sales Tax Survey, 2008
Final Questionnaire
30 January 2008
4. Don't live in Orange County [THANK AND TERMINATE] [CODE AS
INELIGIBLE]
5. Respondent named does not live here [THANK AND TERM CODE AS NQ?
- NO NAMED RESPONDENT]
6. DK/NA/Refused [THANK AND TERMINATE] [CODE AS REFUSAL]
INTR02:
Hello, my name is , and I'm calling on behalf of the Orange County
government. We're conducting a brief survey of Orange County residents concerning tax
proposals that may go before the voters this May. This survey will only take about five minutes
of your time, and your individual answers will be kept strictly confidential. Would you have a
few minutes to help us out?
1. Conduct interview now [CONTINUE WITH S I]
2. Schedule interview for another time [SCHEDULE CALLBACK]
3. [DK/NA/REF] [THANK AND TERMINATE] [CODE AS REFUSAL]
Screening Questions
S l. First, do you currently live in Orange County?
1. Yes
2. No [SKIP TO TERMINATE SCRIPT]
3. DK/NA
S2. What is your home zip code?
1. 27231
2. 27243
3. 27278
4. 27302
5. 27340
6. 27510
7. 27514
8. 27516
9. 27517
S3. And are you at least 18 years of age?
10. 27541
11. 27572
12. 27583
13. 27599
14. 27705
15. 27707
16. 27712
17. Other [SKIP TO TERMINATE SCRIPT]
1. Yes
2. No [SKIP TO TERMINATE SCRIPT]
3. DK/NA
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Orange County Sales Tax Survey, 2008
Final Questionnaire
30 January 2008
S4. Are you currently registered to vote in Orange County?
1. Yes
2. No [SKIP TO TERMINATE SCRIPT]
3. DK/NA/Refused [SKIP TO TERMINATE SCRIPT]
S5.. As you may know, there is a primary election scheduled for Tuesday, May 6t". How
likely are you to vote in the May 6th primary? Would you say that you... (READ LIST;
SELECT ONE. DO NOT READ SKIP INSTRUCTIONS.)
1. Definitely will vote [SKIP TO Q 1 INTRO]
2. Probably will vote [SKIP TO Q1 INTRO]
3. Might or might not vote [SKIP TO Q1 INTRO]
4. Probably will not vote, or [GO TO TERMINATE SCRIPT]
5. Definitely will not vote [GO TO TERMINATE SCRIPT]
I
TERMINATE SCRIPT: Unfortunately, we're only interviewing likely voters who live in
Orange County. Thank you very much for your time; that's all the questions I have. Have a nice
day/evening.
Tax Proposals
Q1 INTRO. I'd like to ask you about a couple of tax proposals that may be placed on the May
6th primary election ballot. Neither would take effect unless they are approved by Orange
County voters at the May primary.
Q1. One proposal is to increase the sales tax on NON-food items by one-quarter of 1%. That is,
you would pay an extra 25 cents on a $100 purchase of NON-food items. There would be NO
sales tax increase on food. It's estimated that this tax would raise $3 million in the first full year,
and COULD keep property taxes below what they would be otherwise. If this were placed on
the ballot, how would you vote on a one-quarter of 1 % increase in the sales tax on NON-food
items? (PROMPT IF NEEDED:) Would you vote "yes" or "no"?
1. Yes [SKIP TO Q3]
2. No [SKIP TO Q2]
3. DK/Not Sure [GO TO Q1 A]
4. NA/Refused [SKIP TO Q3]
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Orange County Sales Tax Survey, 2008
Final Questionnaire
30 January 2008
Q1A. Would you say you lean more toward voting "yes," or toward voting "no," on the
sales tax, or are you really not sure?
1. Lean Yes [SKIP TO Q3]
2. Lean No [GO TO Q2]
3. Really not sure [SKIP TO Q3]
4. NA/Refused [SKIP TO Q3]
Q2. What would your reasons be for voting "no" on the sales tax? (DO NOT READ LIST;
SELECT ALL THAT APPLY)
1. Cost to taxpayers / Taxes are too high already
2. Sales tax is regressive / Hits poorer families hardest
3. Don't believe the funds will be spent wisely
4. General uncertainty of the economy/recession
Other [SPECIFY]:
to
Q3. Another proposal is for a land transfer tax, where sellers would pay four-tenths of 1 % on the
price of real estate, at the time of sale. For instance, when selling a $200,000 home, the
SELLER would pay a tax of $800 at the time of sale. It's estimated that this tax would raise $4
million in the first full year, and COULD keep property taxes below what they would be
otherwise. If this were placed on the ballot, how would you vote on a four-tenths of 1% land
transfer tax, paid by the seller? (PROMPT IF NEEDED:) Would you vote "yes" or "no"?
1. Yes [SKIP TO Q5]
2. No [SKIP TO Q4]
3. DK/Not Sure [GO TO Q3A]
4. NA/Refused [SKIP TO Q5]
Q3A. Would you say you lean more toward voting "yes," or toward voting "no," on the
land transfer tax proposal, or are you really not sure?
1. Lean Yes [SKIP TO Q5]
2. Lean No [GO TO Q4]
3. Really not sure [SKIP TO Q5]
4. NA/Refused [SKIP TO Q5]
Drafted by Hertzog Research, LLC -4-
Orange County Sales Tax Survey, 2008
Final Questionnaire
30 January 2008
Q4. What would your reasons be for voting "no" on the land transfer tax? (DO NOT READ
LIST; SELECT ALL THAT APPLY)
1. Cost to taxpayers / Taxes are too high already
2. Housing prices are already too high
3. Housing market is bad
4. Don't want to pay that much when I sell a home
5. Don't believe the funds will be spent wisely
6. General uncertainty of the economy/recession
7. Other [SPECIFY]:
Q5. Under North Carolina law, even if the voters pass both of these tax proposals, the County
could levy only one: EITHER the sales tax increase, OR the land transfer tax, BUT NOT BOTH.
Regardless of how you would vote on these proposals, if you HAD to choose between theirs,
which one would you rather see enacted-the one-quarter of 1% sales tax increase on non-food
items, OR the four-tenths of 1 % land transfer tax paid by sellers of real estate?
1. Sales tax
2. Land transfer tax
3. No real preference/DK/Not Sure
4. Refused to select either/NA
Local Media Usage
Q6. OTHER THAN talking with your friends and family, can you tell me any sources of
LOCAL news and information you use REGULARLY? That includes newspapers, local TV or
radio news, and web sites that cover local affairs. (RECORD VERBATIM. PROBE FOR
ADDITIONAL SOURCES:) Anything else?
Demographics
D 1 INTRO. Now I have a few final questions just for statistical purposes. Again, your answers
will be kept strictly confidential
Dl. First, do you own or rent your home?
1. Own
2. Rent
3. DK/NA/Refused
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Orange County Sales Tax Survey, 2008
Final Questionnaire
30 January 2008
D2. In what year were you born? [NA/REFUSED = 9999]
D3. So that we can make sure all races are represented fairly in our interviews, would you
describe yourself as...? (READ LIST; SELECT ONE)
1. White
2. Black or African-American
3. Hispanic or Latino
4. Asian or Pacific Islander
5. American Indian or Native American
6. Multiracial
7. Or some other category?
8. [DO NOT READ] DK/NAJRefused
D4. Finally, do you live within the town limits of Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Hillsborough, or
Mebane (PRONOUNCE "MEB-in"), or do you live outside the limits of any town?
1. Within a town's limits [GO TO D4A]
2. Outside any town's limits [SKIP TO D5]
3. DK/NA/Refused [SKIP TO D5]
D4A. Which town is that: the Town of Chapel Hill, the Town of Carrboro, the Town of
Hillsborough, or the Town of Mebane (PRONOUNCE "NEB-in")?
1. Town of Chapel Hill
2. Town of Carrboro
3. Town of Hillsborough
4. Town of Mebane
5. None / Outside any town's limits
6. DK/NA/Refused
D5. GENDER (RECORD - DO NOT ASK)
1. Male
2. Female
CLOSE:
That's all of the questions I have. Thank you so much for your time! Have a great day/evening,
Ia
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