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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda - 10-07-2014-13 (5)INFORMATION ITEM Memorandum Date: September 10, 2014 To: Board of County Commissioners Bonnie B. Hammersley, County Manager From: Craig Benedict, Planning Director Tom Altieri, Comprehensive Planning Supervisor Re: Population Projections Used for Various Planning Initiatives At a Board of County Commissioners meeting earlier this year, Chair Jacobs offered that there had been some differences in outlook on the projected population for Orange County when looking at the County's projections versus other entities' projections. A request was made for the Board to receive information on the various population projections used for various planning initiatives in relation to the County's Comprehensive Plan. Background Population and employment estimates were questioned by Orange County Planning Staff during development of the 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP), formerly known as the Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), for the Durham - Chapel Hill - Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization (DCHC MPO). These estimates, referred to as "guide totals" in the MTP, were used in a MPO land use model to create development scenarios (i.e. maps) each showing geographic distribution of population growth and employment in the County. Employment guide totals from Woods and Poole were not evaluated substantially. Planning staff and the BOCC had questions regarding the distribution of residential development in the County, particularly within the rural buffer, and also the 49,000 jobs that had been projected in Orange County over the 30 -year period (See attached). Of the 49,000 jobs, 29,000 were to locate in Chapel Hill, and 8,300 of those were attributed to UNC growth that is "asserted" on main campus and Carolina North. The remaining 20,000 jobs over 30 years (670 jobs per year) were distributed among Carrboro, Hillsborough, Mebane, the part of Durham City in Orange County, and unincorporated OC (including the economic development zones). An additional 20,000 jobs may mean approximately 260,000 SF of new construction or approximately one 25,000 SF Duke medical clinic every 3 -years for the next 30- years. Employment included in 2040 MTP: Jurisdiction T20110 Employment 2040 Employment Annual Rate Estimate Forecast Durham County 194,770 306,637 1.5% Orange County 70,491 119,787 1.8% Chatham County 10,011 19,509 2.2% Person County 8,791 13,093 1.3% Total 284,063 459,026 1.6% At the time the BOCC and Planning staff had questions, the MPO staff and MTP process were too far along to really engage in discussion and consider if any changes might be necessary to address Orange County's concerns or questions. Various Planning Initiatives In addition to the MTP process, there are other various planning initiatives or projects that include population projections for or within Orange County. At the local level, the Towns of Carrboro, Chapel Hill, and Hillsborough each have Comprehensive Plans that include or reference population projections for their respective jurisdictions. Although it would be helpful for the collective planning within Orange County if all of the local government stakeholders agreed on a common set of population projections for the County and its municipalities, this has not been done and likely not feasible without agreement to pursue from the respective elected boards and subsequent direction to the staffs. However, the 2045 MTP development process is just beginning, includes representation from each local government, and provides a venue and opportunity to discuss and update Orange County's population every 4- years. Water supply planning is another example of a regional planning activity involving Orange County and population projections. The Triangle J Council of Governments led the development of the Triangle Regional Water Supply Plan and is assisting local governments, including Orange County, through the application process with the NC Division of Water Resources for Jordan Lake water supply storage allocations. In this case, participating governments and water service providers submitted their own population projections for their respective service areas, which needed to be defensible but did not need to prescribe to a common methodology. Relationship to Orange County 2030 Comprehensive Plan The County's Comprehensive Plan includes a County Profile (data) Element that uses decennial U.S. Census data, historical growth rates, and linear and exponential population projection methodologies to arrive at population forecasts. The original (2008) forecasts have been updated with the benefit of the 2010 Census and are available online: http: / /www.co. orange. nc.us /planning /Demographics.asp For brief comparison: 2030 Population Forecast 2040 MTP 176,384 Orange County Comp Plan (linear) 173,752 Orange County Comp Plan 192,243 (exponential) Woods and Poole 176,427 NC Office of State Budget & Management 168,342 2040 Population Forecast 197,675 193,728 230,770 245,380 N/A (175,073 for year 2034) 2 ' Although the various population forecasts for Orange County are relatively comparable, adding some validity, this does not necessarily substantiate the accuracy of the projections. In this case, release of future Census data and time will tell. However, what is especially difficult for County Planning Staff to accept is that all of the projections are "straight - line ", meaning no account for changing growth rates over time. One could posture that growth in Orange County is constrained by growth policies and urban service boundaries and municipalities may experience "ceiling" effects within their current boundaries, albeit with some redevelopment at greater densities. Earlier this year, Orange County Planning Staff met with Dr. Paul Voss, Research Professor at the UNC Carolina Population Center to discuss Orange County population forecasts and as a result, Dr. Voss prepared projections for the County's Planning Department. Dr. Voss took an average from the results of 10 separate projections, with differing methodologies, and arrived at a 2030 and 2040 population of 183,425 and 214,204, respectively. Staff notes that these projections are higher than those included in the 2040 MTP. His methods are based on migration models and not based on existing or future municipal and County growth policies. Although the County's Comprehensive Plan County Profile Element includes a section on emalovment it does not include emalovment forecasts. Conclusions • There are a variety of data sources for population projections and those completed by Orange County Planning staff fit well within the range of possibilities when compared to other sources. • Population estimates and forecasts are continuously revisited and updated as decennial U.S. Census data is made available and /or plans such as the MTP reach the next update cycle. • All associated staff now has a better understanding of the model used by the MPO and how it reacts to inputs. Previous population growth in the Rural Buffer produced by the model was created because the model would not allow Chapel Hill to accept residential development "on the ground" even though the population guide total reflected growth in Chapel Hill's population. As mentioned previously, during the 2040 MTP process, the MPO staff and the process itself were too far along to really engage in discussion and consider if any changes were necessary to address Orange County's concerns or questions. How the model populates or places residential development in rural Orange County versus Chapel Hill will be a staff focus during the 2045 MTP process. Triangle J Council of Governments staff has also expressed intent to help build in more time for a "big picture view" and cross agency staff discussion rather than independent review and input. • The DCHC MPO will be working on the population and employment guide totals for the 2045 MTP in late fall 2014 through early 2015. County Planning staff will be participating in the development process and will keep the BOCC apprised. The MPO Board will need to approve guide totals and the BOCC will be asked to review. • The MPO staff ensures that there will be adequate review of the guide totals and has agreed to provide better context (e.g., x employment = y square feet of work space). County Planning staff will also request that employment within municipalities be examined for both the supply and demand for land. How population may be constrained within the model above and beyond that which could be accommodated by existing zoning will be a subject of discussion and debate. Links 2040 DCHC MPO MTP: http : / /www.dchcmpo.org /index.php ?option =com content &task = view &id= 97 &ltemid =35 E Timetable for completion of 2045 DCHC MPO MTP (Follow link and click on Att 09b): http : / /www.dchcmpo.org /index.php ?option =com wrapper &ltemid =41 NC Office of State Budget and Management — County Population Projections: http: / /www.osbm.state.nc.us /ncosbm /facts and figures /socioeconomic data /population estimat es /county proiections.shtm UNC Carolina Population Center: http://www.cpc.unc.edu/ Imagine 2040 Results 5 Location 2010 Pop 2040 Pop Population Increase 2010 Dwelling Units 2040 Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Increase 2010 Employment 20401mployment Employment Increase Carrboro 19,978 22,425 2,447 10,341 10,428 87 4,879 8,060 3,181 Chapel Hill 59,512 79,523 20,011 21,885 30,685 8,800 53,040 81,325 28,285 County 29,852 44,158 14,306 12,177 18,300 6,123 3,317 7,704 4,387 Hillsborough 10,579 22,973 12,394 5,073 10,068 4,995 6,935 18,763 11,828 Mebane 4,070 6,541 2,471 1,725 2,743 1,018 1,453 1,996 543 Rural Buffer 1 11,1061 25,1611 14,0551 4,7121 10,1831 5,4711 1,3601 2,4261 1,066 Total 1 135,0971 200,7811 65,6841 55,9131 82,4071 26,4941 70,9841 120,2741 49,290 " City Limits ETJ tFLUM Rural Buffer TAZ Carrboro Chapel Hill County Hillsborough Mebane /Efland Rural Buffer Transition Imagine 2040 Data Source: Imagine 2040 - CommunityViz Model (December 2013) - Matt Noonkester N 1 in = 3.5 miles 0 1 Miles Orange County Planning and Inspections Brian Carson (9/16/2014)