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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda - 05-21-2013 - 5g1 ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: May 21, 2013 Action Agenda Item No. 5 -g SUBJECT: Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance —Approval and Certification of 2013 Report DEPARTMENT: Planning & Inspections PUBLIC HEARING: (Y /N) No ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: 1. 2013 SAPFOTAC Annual Report Perdita Holtz, 919 - 245 -2578 2. Town of Carrboro Resolution Craig Benedict, 919 - 245 -2592 3. Comments from Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools 4. 11x17 Copies of Student Projection Charts PURPOSE: To approve and certify the 2013 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee ( SAPFOTAC) Report and certify portions of the Report. BACKGROUND: At the December 3, 2012 Board of County Commissioners' meeting, the Board approved the November 15, 2012 actual membership and capacity numbers for both Orange County Schools (OCS) and Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools ( CHCCS). Additional approvals /certifications, as outlined in the table below, are required by the SAPFO partners MOUs (Memorandum of Understanding). At the March 19, 2013 BOCC meeting, the Board received for transmittal the draft 2013 SAPFOTAC Report. The draft report was also posted on the Orange County Planning Department's web site. A letter and the Executive Summary of the report were sent to all SAPFO partners on March 20, 2013 advising them of the availability of the draft Report and inviting comments. Comments were requested for submission by April 19, 2013. The Carrboro Board of Aldermen received the 2013 SAPFOTAC Report at its April 16, 2013 meeting and approved the attached Resolution (see Attachment 2). The Board of Aldermen had no comments on the report. The Hillsborough Town Board received the 2013 SAPFOTAC Report at its April 8, 2013 meeting and offered no comments. The Chapel Hill Town Council received the 2013 SAPFOTAC Report at its April 10, 2013 meeting and had no comments. Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools ( CHCCS) administration presented the draft SAPFOTAC report to the CHCCS Board of Education at the May 2, 2013 meeting. The CHCCS Board of Education did not recommend any changes to the report. However, Attachment 3 contains a memorandum from CHCCS administration summarizing the discussion which includes comments on Culbreth Science Labs, Pre -K and impacts to school capacity, current student generation rates, and the Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) process. CHCCS also requested that the Pre -K memo that was part of the April 25, 2013 BOCC /School Boards meeting materials be included as part of the SAPFO comments. No comments were received from OCS. The exact pages of the 2013 SAPFOTAC report that the BOCC will be acknowledging and certifying are listed below. The context (i.e.- definitions and standards) of the various SAPFO elements precedes the data to be certified and is within the full Report. Element Page in Certification to be made by BOCC SAPFOTAC Report Building capacity 11 through 16 Building capacity and current year with CIP changes membership for OCS and CHCCS were approved at the December 3, 2012 (Change from previous year) meeting. Student membership projection 19 Certification that the average of 5 models methodology will be used, as noted in #3 on page 19 (No Change from previous year) Student membership projections 35 and 36 . Orange County Elementary, Middle, and High Schools Student Projections (row that notes average only) (p. 35) • Chapel Hill /Carrboro Elementary, Middle, and High Schools Student (Change from previous year) Projections (row that notes average only) (p. 36) Student Growth Rate 37 . Orange County Elementary, Middle, and High Schools • Chapel Hill /Carrboro Elementary, (Change from previous year) Middle, and High Schools Student/housing generation rate 42 . Orange County Elementary, Middle, and High Schools (No Change from previous year) . Chapel Hill /Carrboro Elementary, Middle, and High Schools FINANCIAL IMPACT: Based on 10 -year student growth projections, CHCCS has projected capital facility construction needs as follows: New Elementary #11 needed now; scheduled to open in August 2013 New Elementary #12 2021 -2022 New Middle School #5 2017 -2018 Expanded High School 2020 -2021 Based on 10 -year student growth projections, OCS has no projected capital facility construction needs in the next 10 years. K Section 7 of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) states, "Orange County will use its best efforts to provide the funding to carry out the Capital Improvement Plan referenced in Section 1 above." Neither Orange County Planning nor non - departmental budgets have added any contractual services monies for re- analysis of student generation rates or school impact fees. The final phase of a 4 -year school impact fee escalation concluded on January 1, 2012 (fee schedule at: http: / /orangecountync.gov /planning /PDFs/ fees /School %20Impact %20Fees.pdf). These fees reflected an approximate 60% recuperation of actual costs to provide for `student stations' based on a 2007 -08 consultant study. SAPFOTAC partners have discussed the desirability of a new study to ensure the data and fees are kept up -to -date but, due to budget constraints, a new study has not been funded. RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends the Board approve the 2013 SAPFOTAC Annual Report and certify those aspects of the Report detailed in the summary table above. m Attachment 1 ORANGE COUNTY, NC SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE PREPARED BY A STAFF COMMITTEE: PLANNING DIRECTORS, SCHOOL REPRESENTATIVES, TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE (SAPFOTAC) (PURSUANT TO PROVISIONS OF A MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING ADOPTED IN 2002 & 2003) (ORDINANCES ADOPTED IN JULY 2003) Annual Report 2013 (BASED ON NOVEMBER 2012 DATA) CERTIFIED BY THE BOCC ON XXX, 2013 Table of Contents Page ExecutiveSummary ............................................................................. ............................... i Introduction.......................................................................................... ............................... V Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners ............. ............................... Vi Planning Directors, School Representatives, Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) members ........................................ ............................... Vii I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service .............................................. ............................... 1 B. Building Capacity ......................................... ............................... 2 Attachment: IB.1. - Orange County School Capacity (Elementary, Middle & High) (2011- 12) ................... 5 Attachment: IB.2. - Chapel Hill /Carrboro School Capacity (Elementary, Middle & High) (2011- 12) ............ 8 Attachment: IB.3. - Orange County School Capacity (Elementary, Middle & High) (2012 - 13) .....................11 25 Attachment: IB.4. - Chapel Hill /Carrboro School Capacity (Elementary, Middle & High) (2012-13)............. 14 C. Membership Date ............................................. ............................... 17 II. Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System A. Capital Investment Plan ( CIP) .......................... ............................... 18 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology ....... ............................... 19 Attachment: IIB.1. —Student Membership Projection Descriptions ........................ ............................... 20 Attachment: II B. 2. Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis for 2011- 12 .................. 21 Attachment: IIB.3. Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis for 2012- 13 .................. 25 C. Student Membership Projections ....................... ............................... 29 Attachment: II C.1. Orange County Student Projections (Elementary, Middle & High) (2011- 12) .............. 33 Attachment: II C.2. Chapel Hill /Carrboro Student Projections (Elementary, Middle & High) (2011- 12) ....... 34 Attachment: II C.3. Orange County Student Projections (Elementary, Middle & High) (2012 -13) ......... 35 Attachment: II C. 4. Chapel Hill /Carrboro Student Projections (Elementary, Middle & High) (2012- 13) ....... 36 D. Student Membership Growth Rate ............................... ............................... 37 Attachment: IID.1. Orange County & Chapel Hill /Carrboro Student Growth Rates Chart dates from 2012 2022 based on 11 /1S /11 membership numbers (2011 -12) ... ............................... 38 Attachment: IID.2. Orange County & Chapel Hill /Carrboro Student Growth Rates Chart dates from 2013 2023 based on 11/15/12 membership numbers (2012 -13) ...... ............................... 39 E. Student / Housing Generation Rate ..................... ............................... 40 Attachment: IIE.1. — Current Student Generation Rates ( 2007) ........................... ............................... 42 III. Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process A. Process 1 - Capital Investment Plan ....................................... ............................... 43 Attachment: III A.1. — Process 1 Capital Investment Plan ................................... ............................... 44 B. Process 2 - Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance; Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) System ...... ............................... 45 Attachment: III B.1. Process 2 Certificate ofAdequate Public Schools (CAPS) Allocation .......................... 47 2013 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary I. Base Memorandum of Understanding A. Level of Service .................. ............................(No Change) ......... Pg. 1 B. Building Capacity and Membership ......................... (Change) .......... Pg. 2 Chapel HillICarrboro School District Orange County School District Elementa 105% 105% Middle 107% 107% High 110% 110% B. Building Capacity and Membership ......................... (Change) .......... Pg. 2 C. Membership Date — November 15 ........................(No Change) ....... Pg.17 II. Annual Update to SAPFO System A. Capital Investment Plan ( CIP) . ............................(No Change)......Pg. 18 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology ....... (No Change) ....... Pg. 19 The average of 3, S, and 10 year history /cohort survival, linear and arithmetic projection models. C. Student Membership Projections ....................... .......(Change)...........Pg.29 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2012 -13 School Year — Chapel Hill Carrboro City Schools Chapel HiltlCarrboro School District Orange County School District projection was high comp ared to the actual. Capacity Membership Increase from Prior Year Capacity Membership Increase from Prior Year Elementary 5244 5543 79 3694 3403 55 Middle 2840 2785 32 1 2166 1684 (20) High 3875 3796 82 1 2439 2315 32 C. Membership Date — November 15 ........................(No Change) ....... Pg.17 II. Annual Update to SAPFO System A. Capital Investment Plan ( CIP) . ............................(No Change)......Pg. 18 B. Student Membership Projection Methodology ....... (No Change) ....... Pg. 19 The average of 3, S, and 10 year history /cohort survival, linear and arithmetic projection models. C. Student Membership Projections ....................... .......(Change)...........Pg.29 Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2012 -13 School Year — Chapel Hill Carrboro City Schools (The number in brackets [n] is the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. A number in parenthesis within the brackets [ (n) ] indicates the projection was low compared to the actual whereas a number not in parenthesis indicates the projection was high comp ared to the actual. Year Projection Made for 2012 -13 Membership Actual 2012 2007 -08 2008 -09 2009 -10 2010 -11 2011 -12 Membership Elementary 5543 5817 [274] 5703 [160] 5604 [61] 5489 [(54)] 5572 [29] Middle 2783 3003 [220] 2960 [177] 2848 [65] 2795 [12] 2796 [13] High 3796 3959 [163] 3930 [134] 3792 [(4)] 3733 [(63)] 3783 [(13)] Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2012 -13 School Year — Orange County Schools (The number in brackets [n] is the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. A number in parenthesis within the brackets [ (n) ] indicates the projection was low compared to the actual whereas a number not in parenthesis indicates the projection was high comp ared to the actual. Orange County School District Year Projection Made for 2012 -13 Membership 2008 -09 Actual 2012 2010 -11 2011 -12 2012 -13 2008 -09 2009 -10 2010 -11 Membership 2007 -08 2008 -09 2009 -10 2010 -11 2011 -12 Elementary 3403 3556 [153] 3337 [(166)] 3355 [(48)] 3435 [32] 3438 [35] Middle 1684 1 1748 [64] 1708 [24] 1751 [67] 1732 [48] 1716 32] High 2315 1 2250 [(65)] 2254 [(61)] 2298 [(17)] 2258 [)57)] 2278 [(37)] D. Student Growth Rate ............................................ (Change) .......... Pg. 37 Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over Next 10 Years Chapel HillICarrboro School District Orange County School District Year Projection Made: 2008 -09 2009 -10 2010 -11 2011 -12 2012 -13 2008 -09 2009 -10 2010 -11 2011 -12 2012 -13 Elementary 1.5% 1.72% 1.44% 1.59% 1.18% 1.16% 1.34% 1.57% 1.6% 1.31% Middle 2.03% 1.93% 1.67% 1.94% 1.59% 1.44% 1.53% 1.84% 2.01% 1.64% High 2.21% 1 1.8% 1 1.57% 1 1.730/. 1.60% 1.0% 1.38% 1 1.59% 1 1.61% 1 1.43% E. Student / Housing Generation Rate ....................(No Change)...........Pg. 40 SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS (based on future year Student Membership Projections) CHAPEL HILLICARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Exceeds 105% LOS standard (current LOS is 105.7 %). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years but remain positive (average —1 .2% per year compared to 2.0% over the past 10 years). C. Elementary School 411 is slated to open in the fall of 2013 which currently resolves the temporary overcapacity circumstance since housing can be timed with the under - construction school. The projections show Elementary School 412 will be needed in 2021 -22; this is 3 years later than last year's projections (which projected a need in 2018- 19) and is attributable to the projected slower rate of growth (which may increase if economic activity improves). Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standards (current LOS is98.1 %). 11 7 B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a greater rate over the next 10 years than it has in the previous 10 years (average —1. 6% compared to an average of 0.67% over the past 10 years). C. Chapel Hill / Carrboro Middle School 45 is projected to be needed in 2017 -18 (no change from last year). High School Level A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard (current LOS is98.0 %). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease but remain positive over the next 10 years (average —1.6% compared to 1.86% over the past 10 years. C. Expansion of Carrboro High School from the initial capacity of 800 students to the ultimate capacity of 1,200 students is projected to be needed in 2020 -21 (no change from last year). ORANGE COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT Elementary School Level A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard (current LOS is92.1 %). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected decrease but remain positive over the next 10 years (average —1.3% compared to 1.6% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10 year projection period. This is a change from last year which showed a need for a new Elementary School in 2020 -21. This year's projections show a LOS of 104.9% in 2022- 23. Middle School Level A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard (current LOS is77.7 %). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a greater rate over the next 10 years (average —1.6% compared to 0.36% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10 year projection period. Staff continues to monitor new development activity in the Orange County portion of Mebane, which is not a party to the Schools APFO MOU at this time. High School Level A. Does not currently exceed 110% LOS (current LOS is94.9 %). B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease but remain positive over the next 10 years (average —1.4% compared to 2.4% over the past 10 years). C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional High School in the 10 year projection period although capacity at the High School level decreased by 119 students this year as a result of a N.C. Department of Public Instruction (DPI) study. This year's projections show a LOS of 109.3% in 2022 -23. Changes in CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools) System As a result of a North Carolina Supreme Court ruling in August 2012, it is anticipated that the local governments that are party to the SAPFO will consider modification of their development regulations as they pertain to CAPS in 2013. New language for consideration is being developed iii that will address the outcome of the court ruling. The primary work of the SAPFO system regarding projections and CIP planning will continue. Legal staffs of the Towns and County are also evaluating if changes to the SAPFO MOUs may be desirable as well. 1v 9 Orange County, NC School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance INTRODUCTION The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance and its Memorandum of Understanding are ordinances and agreements, respectively. Supporting documents are anticipated to be dynamic to incorporate the annual changing conditions of membership, capacity and student projections that may affect School Capital Investment Plan (CIP) timing. This formal annual report will be forthcoming to all of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners each year as new information is available. This updated information is used in the schools capital needs process of the Capital Investment Plan (Process 1) and within elements of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) spreadsheet system (Process 2). This report and any comments from the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance partners will be considered in the first half of each year by the Board of County Commissioners at a regular or special meeting. The various elements of the report are then "certified" and formally considered in the process of the upcoming Capital Investment Plan. The Certificate of Adequate Public Schools system is updated after November 15 when data is received from the school districts with actual membership and pre - certified capacity (i.e. CIP capacity or prior "joint action" capacity changes). The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance and Memorandum of Understanding have dynamic aspects. The derivation of the baseline and update to the variables will continue in the future as a variety of school related issues are fine -tuned by technical and policy groups. The primary facet of this report includes the creation of mathematical projections for student memberships by school levels (Elementary, Middle and High) and by School Districts (Chapel Hill/Carrboro and Orange County). This information is found in Section II, Subsections B, C, D, and E. In summary, this report serves as an update to the dynamic conditions of student membership and school capacity which effect future projected needs considered in Capital Investment Planning. Interested parties may make their comments known to the Board of County Commissioners prior to their review of the report and school CIP completion or ask questions of the SAPFOTAC members. v 10 ANNUAL REPORT AS OUTLINED IN Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Memorandum of Understanding (Schools APFO MOU) SECTION Id RESPECTFULLY SUBMITTED TO SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE PARTNERS Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District School APFO Orange County School District School APFO i Board of County Commissioners Board of County Commissioners Carrboro Board of Aldermen Hillsborough Town Council Chapel Hill Town Council Chapel Hill / Carrboro School Board Orange County School Board 11 vi Planninp- Directors /School Representatives Technical Advisory Committee (aka SAPFOTAC) Town of Carrboro Trish McGuire, Planning Director 301 West Main Street Carrboro, NC 27510 Town of Chapel Hill J.B. Culpepper, Planning Director 405 Martin Luther King, Jr. Blvd. Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514 Town of Hillsborough Margaret Hauth, Planning Director P.O. Box 429 Hillsborough, NC 27278 Orange County Planning Department Craig Benedict, Planning Director and Perdita Holtz, Planning Systems Coordinator and Paul Laughton, Deputy Director of Finance and Administrative Services 131 W. Margaret Lane P.O. Box 8181 Hillsborough, NC 27278 Orange County School District Patrick Rhodes, Superintendent 200 E. King Street Hillsborough, NC 27278 Chapel Hill- Carrboro School District Todd LoFrese, Assistant Superintendent for Support Services and Catherine Mau, Coordinator of Student Enrollment 750 Merritt Mill Road Chapel Hill, NC 27516 12 vii 13 I. BASE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING A. Level of Service 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change — Change can only be effectuated by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) by all School APFO partners. 2. Definition — Level of Service (LOS) means the amount (level) of students that can be accommodated (serviced) at a certain school system grade group [i.e., Elementary level (K -5), Middle Level (6 -8), High School Level (9 -12)]. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District Elementary Middle High School Elementary Middle High School 105% 107% 110% 105% 107% 110% 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions Chapel Hill Carrboro School District These standards are acceptable at this time S. Recommendation — Analysis of Existing Conditions Orange County School District These standards are acceptable at this time. Recommendation— No Change from above standard No Change from above standard 14 Section I 1 2 3 B. Building Capacity Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change - The Planning Directors, School Representatives, Technical Advisory Committee ( SAPFOTAC) will receive requested changes that are CIP related and adopted in the prior year. CIP capacity changes will be updated along with actual membership received in November of each year. Other changes will be sent to a `Joint Action Committee' of the BOCC and Board of Education, as noted in the MOU, who will make recommendations and forward changes (on the specific forms with justification) to the full Board of County Commissioners for review and action. These non -CIP changes would be updated in the upcoming November CAPS system recalibration and included in the SAPFOTAC report. Definition- "For purposes of this Memorandum, "building capacity" will be determined by reference to State guidelines and the School District guidelines (consistent with CIP School Construction Guidelines /policies developed by the School District and the Board of County Commissioners) and will be determined by a joint action of the School Board and the Orange County Board of Commissioners. As used herein the term "building capacity" refers to permanent buildings. Mobile classrooms and other temporary student accommodating classroom spaces are not permanent buildings and may not be counted in determining the school districts building capacity." Standard for: Chapel Hill Carrboro School District The original certified capacity for each of the schools was certified by the respective Standard for: Orange County School District The original certified capacity for each of the schools was certified by the respective superintendent and incorporated in the initialization superintendent and incorporated in the of the CAPS system (Chapel Hill Carrboro School initialization of the CAPS system (Orange District April 29, 2002 - Base) Capacity changes were made each year as follows: 2003: Increase of 619 at Rashkis Elementary. 2004: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 2005: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High County School District April 30, 2002 - Base) Capacity changes were made each year as follows: 2003: No net increase in capacity at Elementary level. No changes at Middle School level. Increase of 1,000 at Cedar Ridge 2 Section I School levels. 2006: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 2007: An increase of 800 at the High School level with the opening of Carrboro High School. 2008: An increase of 323 at the Elementary School level due to the opening of Morris Grove Elementary School and the implementation of the 1:21 class size ratio in grades K -3 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 2010: An increase in capacity of 40 students at the High School level with Phoenix Academy High School becoming official high school within the district 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 2012: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 15 High School. 2004: No net increase in capacity at Elementary level. No changes at Middle or High School levels. 2005: An increase in capacity of 100 at Hillsborough Elementary with the completion of renovations. 2006: An increase in capacity of 700 at the Middle School level with the completion of Gravelly Hill Middle School and an increase of 15 at the High School level with the temporary location of Partnership Academy Alternative School. An increase of 2 at the Elementary level due to a change in the capacity calculation for each grade at each school. 2007: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 2008: A decrease of 228 at the Elementary School level due to the implementation of the 1:21 class size ratio in grades K -3 and an increase of 25 at the High School level with the completion of the new Partnership Academy Alternative School. 2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 2010: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High School levels. 2012: No changes at Elementary or Middle School levels. A decrease of 119 at High 3 Section I 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions Chapel Hill Carrboro School District The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a 16 School level as a result of a N.C. Department of Public Instruction (DPI) study. Analysis of Existing Conditions Orange County School District The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a system to calculate capacity. Any changes year to system to calculate capacity. Any changes year will be monitored, reviewed, and recorded by year to year will be monitored, reviewed, and the SAPFOTAC on approved forms distributed to recorded by the SAPFOTAC on approved SAPFO partners and certified upon approval by the Board of County Commissioners each year The requested 2012 -13 capacity is noted on Attachment LB.4 forms distributed to SAPFO partners and certified upon approval by the Board of County Commissioners each year. The requested 2012 -13 capacity is noted on Attachment LB.3 5. Recommendation — Accept school capacities Recommendation — Accept school capacities at all levels, as reported by CHCCS and shown at all levels, as reported by OCS and shown in in Attachment LB.4. Attachment LB.3. Section I Attachment I.B. 1 17 (page lof 3) 2011-12 SPOCIal Notofs)' 1, For the Novcrnber 15, 2002 Nise year the board aceejAed capacifies as pod orfliQ SOwl Facilities Tnsk F"tgee review sand 2003 Phinners and Scholl Reprcsc3rialivc TechikM Advisory Conunittec Report, These wipacilic! witl qamupll erfeclive unfit changed Pry (1) the Sclumil CW or (2) an amended version W'flris fonn lhat ri certified by Ehu BOCC ",rrl-nTlffT.Tff M Capacity Ceirtificatio IN4 Sup�,,,nt,n Date mom lru4 ar' / Y . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 .......... ,,, . . . . . . . . . . . BOCC Chair Date BOCC Chaiir Date Attachment I.B. 1 18 Section I (page 2 of 3) 2011-12 Spe-Wal Note(s): O. For the November O 5, 2002 basso yoar the board accepted! the supermtendcnWxffified �Mpnckws as parl orthe School Facififies "Wash Force reviem, and 20.'3933 Marmas and School Representative'redmical Advisory Committee kuport. I'hese upa :idjc 1011 relillain 01100livo u"M 01"Illged by (' 9 ) the schw)O CIP or (2) an amended version ofNq Form that K, txaffied b,y Me BOOC, UTIM Tffmd T.77, Capacity Certification- �uperinte�ndent Ciata Membership Ceirtification.- /I 9, LLk -16 Superinte. vdent­ Date B4OCC Chair Date L3tCC Chair fate me Attachment I.B. 1 19 Section I (page 3of 3) 2011-12 Special Note(q). 1. 1"or Ific NovV,bCT 15, 1002 tMSC )VUr the board a"uptud the superiatendent-cerflified cttpaJfies as part of 8'011(g l Fa6lifi(s tank Fork rmew and 2003 Plannuis and Schooi Advisory Cornmiuct Report. These upacities wall Tunriin dfe%�6vv, until dratigcd by (1) Vise Schooi Clill or (2) an amended version offlik, fitrin that is certified by tile HO(T- Capacity Certification; Superintendent Date Membership Certification- SupeNntendlent Date BOCC Chair Date .... . . . ... BOCC Chair Date Section I Attachment I.B.2 20 (page lof 3) 2011-12 Special Note(s): 1. For the Novernber IS, 2002 base year the board accepted the sul)ciiiitei)deiit-ceplifie(I capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School RepResernativeTechnical Advisory Conuiii1teelkeport, These capacities will remain effective Lartil changed by (1) the School CIP or (2) an amended version of this form that is ctrdfied by the BOCC, �1061 H'. Section I Attachment I.B.2 21 (page 2 of 3) 2011-12 Special Nate(s): t. For the November 15, 2002 base year the board accepted the supernitendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technicid Advisory coonnittee izcport. "These capacities will nnuain effictive until changed by (L) the Sclurol CIP ot, (2) an amended version of this Corm that is certified by the BOCC Cap 'CitCO! i imatl Superintendent 7-Date Membership e firi calt"on: Superintendent Date I L BOCC Chair Date BOCC Chair Date E Section I Attachment I.B2 22 (page 3 of 3) 2011-12 3pecial Not (s1; L Far the November 15, 2002 base year the board accepted the, superintendent- certified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Reporc 'these capacities will remain effective until changed by (1) the School OP or (2) an amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC. Capajclty CerjHfjcafi Ac- L Superintendent Date Me , ershop CWT ati n. VE Superintend—en—i --------[Ta—te OCC Chair Date 17CC- Chair Date 10 Section I Attachment I.B.3 23 (page I of 3) 2012-13 Special Note(s)-. 1, For the November 15, 2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-certified capacities as part of the School Facilities "bask Force review and 2003, Planners and School Representative Technical Advisory Committee Report, These capacities will remain effective until changed by (1) the School CIP or (2) an amended version of this form that as certified by the BOCC Justification: Capacity Certific Superintendent Date Membeirship Certification: Supedritendent Date I I Section I 4 Attachment I.B.3 (page 2 of 3) 2012-13 A,L,,$ Wk 136,000 740 7401 740 . ...... 70 740 C.W. $Wbrd 107,620 726, 7261 726 126 726 Gravelly Hill 123,000 1 1 700 700 i 7010 700 700 Specla I Note(s). L For the November 15, 2002 base year the board' the superintendcnt•colified capacities as part ot'llre School Facit [ties Task Force review and 2003 Planitem and Schnell Representaflve'l'echrn"l Advisory Committee Ropm "Phest eapacifics wilt remain efftolive unlit changed by (t) tho School CIP or (2) an amended version or this forte that is cerfified by the BBC C Capacity Certification: - �Ll L it Superintendent Date Membership Certification: J Supehntendent Date 12 Section I Attachmentl.B.3 25 (page 3 of 3) 2012-13 Special Note(s): 1, For the November 15,2OD2 base year the board accepted the superintendent - certified oapacitics as part of theSclml Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Manners and School Representative Technical Advisory COUnraittee Report. These capaoides will rmaor effective oritit changed by (1) the School CIP or (2) air amended version of this form that is certified by the BOCC Justification; 1. The new capacity requested for Orange High School (1,399) is based on a capacity analysis and facilities study completed by the Department of Public Instruction in August 2012. Capacity Certification; 1(2".:1L Superintendent Date Membership Certification: 22,LL " u 9—upeeintendent I - Date 13 Section I Attachment I.B.4 (page I of 3) 2012-13 Special Hoto(s). L for the November 15,2002bguyear the board accepted the superinlendem-certified capacities as part of die School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 planners, and School Representative TechnieW Advisory Cortmikitte Report, Tbesc capacities wiH remain effiective until changed by (1) the School CIP or (2) an amended version ofthis form That is catifled by rite BOCC. Justification: C" city C rt -. Tup6rintt ndent Date *90 CC r Date 'JRA faoprshi WIV, uLtD -, 4 1 L Superintendent Date Date PT. 14 Section I 27 Attachment I.B.4 (page 2 of 3) 2012-13 0 4pocial Noto(a). 1, For the November IS, 2002 base year the board accepted the superintendent-ceftified capacities as part of the School Facilities Task force review and 2003 Nartners and School Representalive Technical Advisory Committee Repo". These capacifies will reinain effective Limit ch,anoed by (1) the School CIP or (2) an amended version ofthis form that is certified by the HOCC. Justification: :7 ic �Y,, Superintendent Date NI bership 0 lficatbm: 'Superintendent Date B OC C Chair Dat e B Chair Date 15 Section I School District: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools SAPFO CAPS Year. November 1 1, 2012 - November 14, 2013 Capacity ana Mer"GersGip Submittal Date. November 15, 2012 Attachment I.B.4 28 (page 3 of 3) 2012-13 Special Note(s). E For the November 11, 2002 base year the hoard accepted the suWintendent-certifled capacities as part of1he School Facilities Task Force review and 2003 Planners and School Advisory Committee Report. 'These capacities will rernam effective until changed by (I ) The School Clare or (2) area amended version of this fortn that is certified by The BOCC Justificattom o Superintendent Date M .—A berqhill�C Ific , n.- lic fl Tacr-i 4/ 7,777, lVdd� Tuperinteindent Date BOCC Chal' Date BOCC Chair Date 16 e Section I 1 2 3 C. Membership Date Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change — Change can be effectuated only by amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) by all School APFO partners. The Planning Directors, School Representatives, Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) may advise if a change in date would improve the reporting or timeliness of the report. Definition - The date at which student membership is calculated. This date is updated each year and also serves as the basis for projections along with the history from previous years. "For purposes of this Memorandum, the term "school membership" means the actual number of students attending school as of November 15 of each year. The figure is determined by considering the number of students enrolled (i.e. registered, regardless of whether a student is no longer attending school) and making adjustments for withdrawals, dropouts, deaths, retentions and promotions. Students who are merely absent from class on the date membership is determined as a result of sickness or some other temporary reason are included in school membership figures. Each year the School District shall transmit its school membership to the parties to this agreement no later than five (5) school days after November 15. Standard for: Chapel Hill Carrboro School District November 15 of each year 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions Standard for: Orange County School District November 15 of each year This will be analyzed in the future years to determine if it is an exemplary date. S. Recommendation - No change at this Recommendation - No change at this time time 17 Section II II. ANNUAL UPDATE TO SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC 1 2 3 0 5 FACILITIES ORDINANCE SYSTEM A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change — The updating of this section will be conducted by the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) after review of the CIP requests from the School Districts. Action regarding CIP programs usually occurs during the BOCC budget Public Hearing process in the winter and spring of each year. The development of the CIP considers the conditions noted in the SAPFOTAC report released in the same CIP development year including LOS (level of service), capacity, and membership projections. Definition — The process and resultant program to determine school needs and provide funding for new school facilities through a variety of funding mechanisms. Standard for: Chapel Hill- Carrboro School District Not Applicable Analysis of Existing Conditions Standard for: Orange County School District Not Applicable The MOU outlines a system of implementing the SAPFO, including issuing Certificates of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) to new development if capacity is available. The Requests for CAPS will be evaluated using the most recently adopted Capital Investment Plan. A new Capital Investment Plan is currently under development for approval prior to June 30,2013. Recommendation — Not subject to staff review W. 30 Section II B. Student Projection Methodology 31 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change — This section is reviewed and recommended by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) to the BOCC for change, if necessary. 2. Definition — The method(s) by which student memberships are calculated for future years to determine total membership at each combined school level (Elementary, Middle and High School) which take into consideration historical membership totals at a specific time (November 15) in the school year. These methods are also known as `models'. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District Presently, the average of five models is being used: namely 3, 5, and 10 year history /cohort survival methods, Orange County Planning Department Linear Wave and Tischler Linear methods. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions Performance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model is in its prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity shortfalls so the annual Capital Investment Plan (CIP) updates can respond proactively with siting, design, and construction. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. Attachment ILB.3 shows the performance of the models for the 2012 -13 school year from the prior year projection. 5. Recommendation — More than ten years of projection results are now available. Analysis on the accuracy of the results is showing that some models have better results in one district while others have better results in the other district. The historic growth rate is recorded by the models but projected future growth is more difficult to accurately quantify. In all areas of the county, proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. The system is updated in November of each year, becoming part of the historical projection base. This is especially pertinent in the Orange County School District which serves students living within the Orange County portion of the City of Mebane which had had little historic enrollment impact. The significant proposed residential growth occurring within Mebane's jurisdiction has yet to be fully entered into the historically based projection methods. Although construction activity in this portion of the county has slowed, there are still a substantial number of approved but undeveloped residential lots. 19 Section II • ut h. I Attachment IT.B. I 20 32 (n z 7.E5 D E < T < 14 IM E 'E 'r L: 2 E' -j Lu -9 w 5, -g P& 14 + C Tr P 21 R LL a, E 2 KV Z5 :E S E 11 + � E 75 It LE !L E 12 O .Lg1L E k2 q mp A2 —G J2 b R1 Vl j 9-A m — 75 g -5 -E g i8 :E >v 2 a 20- E (0 uj 7-0 w LU el. In 0 fn v 3: LU 0 CL a- a U 0 a. A2 0 L) 20 32 Section II Attachment II.B.2 3 (page 1 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2011 -12 School Year (November 15, 2011) H means High L means Low 21 11/15/10 Actual 2010 -11 2011 Report Projection for 2011 -12 11/15/11 Actual 2011 -12 Change between actual Nov 2010 - Nov 2011 Elementary 3285 3348 +63 Model Projection is T 3343 L5 OCP 3348 accurate 10C 3366 H18 5C 3373 H25 3C 3379 H31 AVG 3362 H14 11/15/2011 Middle 1698 1704 +6 Model Projection is T 1728 H24 OCP 1729 H25 10C 1698 L6 5C 1713 H9 3CI 1714 H10 AVG 1716 H12 11/15/2011 High 2222 2283 +61 Model Projection is T 2261 L22 OCP 2249 L34 10C 2258 L25 5C 2273 L10 3C 2276 L7 AVG 2263 L20 11/15/2011 Totals Elementary 3285 3348 Middle 1698 1704 High 2222 2283 7205 7335 +130 Model Projection is T 7332 L5 OCP 7326 L9 10C 7322 L13 5C 7359 H24 3CI 7369 H34 AVGJ 7342 H6 H means High L means Low 21 Attachment II.B.2 34 Section II (page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2011 -2012 School Year (November 15, 2011) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10 -YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5 -YEAR COHORT (5C) 3 -YEAR COHORT 3C Elementary School Level • Projections were primarily high, ranging from 5 students low to 31 students high. The average of the projections was 14 students higher than actual student membership. • The membership actually increased by 63 students between November 15, 2010 and November 15, 2011. Middle School Level • Projections were primarily high, ranging from 6 students low to 25 students high. On average, the projections were 12 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 6 students between November 15, 2010 and November 15, 2011. High School Level • Projections were entirely low ranging from being low by 7 students to 34 students. On average, the projections were 20 students lower than the actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 61 students between November 15, 2010 and November 15, 2011. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were mixed low and high, ranging from 13 below actual membership to 34 above actual membership. On average, the projections were high by 6 students. • The membership increased in total by 130 students, which is the sum of +63 at Elementary, + 6 at Middle and +61 at High. 22 Section II Attachment II.B.2 35 (page 3 of 4) Chapel Hill /Carrboro School District School Membership 2011 -2012 School Year (November 15, 2011) H means High L means Low 23 11/15/10 Actual 2010 -11 2011 Report Projection for 2011 -12 11/15/11 Actual 2011 -12 Change between actual Nov 2010- Nov 2011 Elementary 5296 5464 +168 Model Protection is T 5389 L75 OCP 5407 L57 10C 5419 L45 5CI 5395 L69 3C 5380 L84 AVG 5398 L66 11/15/2011 Middle 2722 2753 +31 Model Projection is T 2770 H17 OCP 2733 L20 10C 2764 H11 5C 2742 L11 3C 2734 L19 AVG 2749 L4 11/15/2011 High 3640 3617 +74 Model Projection is T 3704 L10 OCP 3743 H29 10C 3679 L35 5C 3665 L49 3CI 3645 L69 AVG 3687 L27 Totals 11/15/2011 Elementary 5296 5464 Middle 2722 2753 High 3640 3714 11658 11931 +273 Model Projection is T 11863 L68 OCP 11883 L48 10C 11862 L69 5C 11802 L129 3C 11759 L172 AVG 11834 L97 H means High L means Low 23 Attachment II.B.2 6 Section II (page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill /Carrboro School District School Membership 2011 -2012 School Year (November 15, 2011) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10 -YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5 -YEAR COHORT (5C) 3 -YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were all low, ranging from 45 students to 84 students lower than the actual November 15, 2011 membership numbers. On average, the projections were 66 students lower than the actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 168 students between November 15, 2010 and November 15, 2011. Middle School Level • Projections were primarily low, ranging from 20 students low to 17 students higher than the actual membership. On average, the projections were 4 students lower than the actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 31 students between November 15, 2010 and November 15, 2011. High School Level • Projections were primarily low, ranging from 69 students below to 29 students higher than the actual membership. On average, the projections were 27 students lower than the actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 74 students between November 15, 2010 and November 15, 2011. TOTAL • The total of all school level projections were low, ranging from 48 to 172 students below. On average the projections were low by 97 students. • The membership increased in total by 273 students, which is the sum of +168 at Elementary, +31 at Middle, and +74 at High. 24 Section II Attachment ILB.3 37 (page 1 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2012 -13 School Year (November 15, 2012) H means High L means Low 25 11/15/11 Actual 2011 -12 2012 Report Projection for 2012 -13 11/15/12 Actual 2012 -13 Change between actual Nov 2011 -Nov 2012 Elementary 3348 3403 +55 Model Projection is T 3407 H4 OCP 3407 H4 10C 3455 H52 5C 3447 H44 3C 3472 H69 AVG 3438 H35 11/15/2012 Middle 1704 1684 -20 Model Projection is T 1734 H50 OCP 1759 H75 10C 1691 H7 5C 1700 H16 3CI 1697 H13 AVG 1716 H32 11/15/2012 High 2283 2315 +32 Model Projection is T 2323 H8 OCP 2289 L26 10C 2248 L67 5C 2265 L50 3C 2264 L51 AVG 2278 L37 11/15/2012 Totals Elementary 3348 3403 Middle 1704 1684 High 2283 2315 7335 7402 +67 Model Projection is T 7464 H62 OCP 7455 H53 10C 7394 L8 5C 7412 H10 3CI 7433 H31 AVGJ 7432 H30 H means High L means Low 25 Section II Attachment II.B.3 (page 2 of 4) Orange County School District School Membership 2012 -2013 School Year (November 15, 2012) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10 -YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5 -YEAR COHORT (5C) 3 -YEAR COHORT 3C Elementary School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 4 students to 69 students high. The average of the projections was 35 students higher than actual student membership. • The membership actually increased by 55 students between November 15, 2011 and November 15, 2012. Middle School Level • Projections were all high, ranging from 7 students to 75 students high. On average, the projections were 32 students higher than the actual membership. • The membership actually decreased by 20 students between November 15, 2011 and November 15, 2012. High School Level • Projections were primarily low ranging from being low by 67 students to 8 students high. On average, the projections were 37 students lower than the actual membership. • The membership actually increased by 32 students between November 15, 2011 and November 15, 2012. TOTAL • The totals of all school level projections were primarily high, ranging from 8 below actual membership to 62 above actual membership. On average, the projections were high by 30 students. • The membership increased in total by 67 students, which is the sum of +55 at Elementary, -20 at Middle and +67 at High. 26 W Section II Attachment II.B.3 39 (page 3 of 4) Chapel Hill /Carrboro School District School Membership 2012 -2013 School Year (November 15, 2012) H means High L means Low 27 11/15/11 Actual 2011 -12 2012 Report Projection for 2012 -13 11/15/12 Actual 2012 -13 Change between actual Nov 2011- Nov 2012 Elementary 5464 5543 +79 Model Protection is T 5563 H2O OCP 5531 L12 10C 5609 H66 5CI 5594 H51 3C 5565 H22 AVG 5572 H29 11/15/2012 Middle 2753 2785 +32 Model Projection is T 2803 H18 OCP 2796 H11 10C 2807 H22 5C 2802 L17 3C 2774 L11 AVG 2796 1-111 11/15/2012 High 3617 3796 +82 Model Projection is T 3781 L15 OCP 3829 H33 10C 3774 L22 5C 3765 L31 3CI 3766 L30 AVG 3783 L13 Totals 11/15/2012 Elementary 5464 5543 Middle 2753 2785 High 3714 3796 11931 12124 +193 Model Projection is T 12147 H23 OCP 12156 H32 10C 12190 H66 5C 12161 H37 3C 12105 L19 AVG 12151 H27 H means High L means Low 27 Attachment II.B.3 Section II (page 4 of 4) Chapel Hill /Carrboro School District School Membership 2012 -2013 School Year (November 15, 2012) Statistical Findings PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10 -YEAR COHORT (10C) ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5 -YEAR COHORT (5C) 3 -YEAR COHORT (3C) Elementary School Level • Projections were primarily high, ranging from 12 students low to 66 students high. On average, the projections were 29 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 79 students between November 15, 2011 and November 15, 2012. Middle School Level • Projections were mixed low and high, ranging from 17 students low to 22 students high. On average, the projections were 11 students higher than the actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 32 students between November 15, 2011 and November 15, 2012. High School Level • Projections were primarily low, ranging from 31 students low to 33 students high. On average, the projections were 13 students lower than the actual membership. • The actual membership increased by 82 students between November 15, 2011 and November 15, 2012. TOTAL • The total of all school level projections were primarily high, ranging from 19 below actual membership to 66 student above actual membership. On average the projections were high by 27 students. • The membership increased in total by 193 students, which is the sum of +79 at Elementary, +32 at Middle, and +82 at High. Section II 2 3 C. Student Projections Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change — The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report certifications. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. Definition — The result of the average of the five student projection models represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level (Elementary, Middle, and High) for each school district (Chapel Hill /Carrboro School District and Orange County School District). Standard for: Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Standard for: Orange County School District The 5 model average discussed in Section II.B The 5 model average discussed in Section II.B (Student Projection Methodology) See Attachment II.C.4 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions (Student Projection Methodology) See Attachment II.C.3 The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show continued growth in both systems. Although in past years there was much more variability in growth rates between the two school systems, averages projected growth rates in the next 10 years for both school systems are quite similar. Both school systems are showing a projected decrease in the increase (but still showing positive growth) at Elementary and High School levels. At the Middle School level, both school districts are projected to grow at a faster rate, on average, in the next 10 years than the average for the last 10 years. Year -by -year percent growth is shown on the attached table as well as the projected LOS. The projections models were updated using current (November 15) memberships. Ten years of student membership were projected thereafter. Wei 41 Section II Chapel Hill Carrboro School District 42 Elementary The previous year (2011 -12) projections for November 2012 at this level were overestimated by 29 students. The actual change was an increase of 79 students. Over the previous ten years, this level has shown varying increases in growth rates including a decrease in actual membership one year (2009 -10) which was most likely due to the shorter enrollment period caused by the institution of the new date rising kindergarteners must be five years old. Following that dip, membership numbers are again increasing, with a significant jump (168 students) last year. Construction of Elementary School 411 is underway and the school is scheduled to open in the fall of 2013. The projections this year are showing the need for Elementary School 412 in 2021 -22 whereas last year's projections showed the need in 2018 -19. This change is due to the slowing of the growth rate which likely is at least partially attributable to the economic conditions the country has been faced with the past four years. Although not included in SAPFO school capacity or membership numbers, Pre -K programs continue to impact operations at District elementary schools where Pre -K programs exist. Middle The previous year (2011 -12) projections for November 2012 for this level were overestimated by 11 students. The actual membership increased by 32. Over the previous ten years, growth has been quite variable and included a decrease in actual membership in 2004 -05. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from -1.99% to +2.86 percent with most years showing a growth rate of around 1% or less. The projections show a need for Middle School 45 in 2017- 18, which is the same projection as last year. High School The previous year (2011 -12) projections for November 2012 for this level were underestimated by 13 students. The actual membership increased by 82 students. Over the previous ten years, change has been variable with actual decreases in membership in 2008 -09 and again in 2009 -10. Growth rates during this time period have ranged from -0.66% to +5.31 %. This year's projections show that additional capacity is needed in 2020 -21, which is the same as last year's 30 Section II 43 projection. Additional High School capacity is expected to be achieved by expanding Carrboro High School from 800 students to 1,200 students, which was included in the construction plans for the high school. Orange County School District Elementary The previous year (2011 -12) projections for November 2012 at this level were overestimated by 35 students. The actual membership increased by 55 students. Over the previous ten years, this level has experienced varying growth rates including a decrease in membership in 2005 -06. Growth rates during this period have ranged from -0.33% to +2.80 %. In the Orange County school system, historic growth is more closely related to new residential development than in the Chapel Hill - Carrboro School District, which has a sizeable number of new families in older, existing housing stock. Last year's projections showed the need for an additional Elementary School in 2020 -21 but due to the projected slowing of the growth rate, this year's projections do not show the need for a new Elementary School in the 10 year projection period. However, it should be noted that the Level of Service in 2022 -23 is projected to be 104.9% with only 4 seats available before going over 105% level of service. Although not included in SAPFO school capacity or membership numbers, Pre -K programs continue to impact operations at District elementary schools where Pre -K programs exist. Middle The previous year (2011 -12) projections for November 2012 for this level were overestimated by 32 students. The actual membership decreased by 20. Over the previous ten years, growth has varied widely and includes decreases in student membership in 5 of the 10 years, including this year which saw a decrease of 20 students. Student membership has grown by only 13 students in the past 10 years. The district's third Middle School, Gravelly Hill Middle School, opened in October 2006. The need for an additional Middle School is not anticipated in the 10 -year projection period. However, staff is closely monitoring new sizeable residential projects in the Orange County portion of Mebane and Hillsborough. 31 Section II High School The previous year (2011 -12) projections for November 2012 for this level were underestimated by 37 students. The actual membership increased by 32. Over the previous ten years, growth varied considerably and included a decrease in membership in 2009 -10. Growth rates during this period ranged from -1.12% to 9.01 %. Membership increased by 32 this school year. As a result of a N.C. Department of Public Instruction (DPI) study that occurred during the past year, the capacity at Orange High School was decreased by 119 students. Even with the decrease in capacity, the need for an additional High School is not anticipated in the 10 -year projection period. However, the level of service in 2022 -23 is projected to be 109.3% which is only 16 students less than the 110% level of service. Additional Information for Orange County School District The City of Mebane lies partially within Orange County and students within the Orange County portion of Mebane attend Orange County schools. However, the City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO agreement and therefore does not require that CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools) be issued prior to development approvals. In previous years, development activity and platting of new subdivisions increased within the Orange County portion of Mebane. However, changed economic conditions have curbed new platting and new construction in the past few years. An uptick in residential activity is likely as the country emerges from "The Great Recession." Increased coordination with the City of Mebane regarding development issues may be necessary in the future. OCS currently has capacity to serve additional growth, but it is possible that development in the Orange County portion of Mebane could quickly encumber available capacity. However, this issue becomes slightly less relevant from a development activity standpoint with the anticipated changes to the CAPS system in the coming months due to a N.C. Supreme Court decision in August 2012. It is anticipated that the SAPFO and CAPS will become more just a good planning tool if the ability of the school systems to deny CAPS due to overcapacity is removed. 5. Recommendation Use statistics as noted in 3 above 32 .. Section II a I` I A u s Attachment ILC.1 (2011 -12) 33 45 Section II Attachment H.C2 46 (2011-12) 34 U Ell I 11 Ell 1; i 5 Mill 1; Attachment H.C2 46 (2011-12) 34 Section II A Student Membership Growth Rate 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change — The updating of this section will be conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) each year and referred to the BOCC for annual report certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. 2. Definition — The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections resulting from the average of the five models represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level for each school district. This does not represent the year -by- year growth rate that may be positive or negative but rather the average of the annual anticipated growth rates over the next ten (10) years. 3. Standard for: Standard for: Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District See Attachment II.D.2 See Attachment II.D.2 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions Analysis of Existing Conditions The membership figures and percentage The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show continued growth on the attachments show continued growth at each school level within the growth at each school level within the system. Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over next ten years: i • system. Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over next ten years: Year Projection Made: 2008 -09 2009 -10 2010 -11 2011 -12 2012 -13 Year Projection Made: 2008 -09 2009 -10 2010 -11 2011 -12 2012 -13 Elementary 1.5% 1.72% 1.44% 1.59% 1.18% Elementary 1.16% 1.34% 1.57% 1.6% 1.31% Middle 2.03% 1.93% 1.67% 1.94% 1.59% Middle 1.44% 1.53% 1.84% 2.01% 1.64% High 2.21% 1.8% 1.57% 1.73% 1.60% High 1.0% 1.38% 1.59% 1.61% 1.43% 5. Recommendation Use statistics as noted. Recommendation Use statistics as noted 37 Section II N N rl ,i O N N C O 'o L a wC W V Vl Z4 C O U G7 C1 C 2 0 M C O V Gl 'O L a C 0) V 7 O L L M V Z W CL M s V Attachment ILD.1 (2011 -12) Qa „e e� �w ea _w �v z� o� �a �V N e d a U . 50 Section II M 0 N N rl G N Y/ v_ Y .a L M f T V v L Lel C Qv E R7 W `r�i 67 c e o N N � o r4 N O � o N � p T O N N Q G O N a CO 0 eq b N N 00 G C4 e N cc [� cc r v r cV N r C o e ro N w N f- °) � �o p T O h N � Q 4 �% N IM r� N Co N C7 CV N en N 7 CO N � � N 7J U � V V w t � _v MV W �O L CL wC w 3 N v L v r L L 2 W CL fC U N W v r Ne CV r N � T N tea � r N N OQ o CO C T 6 � O H N v � r � p � r N �a r p R N GO q N N r N O a � T N o Irl C7 c N T ry �r N (1) v Ln a cv oj N N �z L ri 0:) r- v ry CV N M N 7 CQ N V U r E2 c e� z Q Attachment ILD2 (2012 -13) we, 51 Section II 1. 2 3 11 E. Student / Housing Generation Rate Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change — The updating of this section will be conducted by Planning Directors, School Representatives, Technical Advisory Committee ( SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC prior to certification. Definition — A projected number of students that are generated from four different types of housing, "single - family detached ", "single - family attached ", "multifamily ", and "manufactured homes ", as defined in Appendix C to the 2007 TischlerBise School Impact Fee Report. Standard for: Chapel Hill Carrboro School District See Attachment II.E.1 Analysis of Existing Conditions Standard for: Orange County School District See Attachment II.E.1 On October 6, 2009, the Orange County Board of Commissioners approved the updated Student Generation Rates as recommended by the SAPFOTAC. The newly adopted Student Generation Rates became effective the 2010 -11 school year with the November 15, 2010 CAPS system update. The current standards are shown in Attachment ILE.1. Both Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools have recognized a larger increase in students generated from developments in both districts, particularly the multi - family housing. The SAPFOTAC discussed the increased number of students generated in both districts. While this may be a short term trend caused by the current economic climate or other factors, the SAPFOTAC recommends further evaluation of the adopted Student Generation Rates. Also, it should be noted that students are generated from new housing as well as from existing housing where new families have moved in. The CAPS system estimates new development impacts and associated student generation but it is important to understand .E 52 Section II that student increases are a composite of both of these factors. This effect can be dramatic and can vary greatly between areas and districts where either new housing is dominant or new families move into a large inventory of existing housing stock. 53 It should also be noted that changes may be brought forward this calendar year in regards to the CAPS system. It is possible that the potential changes may make the precise student generation rates slightly less relevant for SAPFO /CAPS purposes. However, student generation rates are relevant for other planning aspects and the impact different types of housing has on students memberships still should be evaluated for new housing trends. 5. Recommendation —No Change The SAPFOTAC does not recommend a change at this time. However, the SAPFOTAC continues to recommend further evaluation of the Student Generation Rates to determine whether a change is warranted. The last impact fee level study (which includes the calculation of student generation rates) was conducted in 2007 so it may be time to initiate another study to ensure up -to -date data is used for both SAPFO purposes and impact fee purposes. 41 54 Section II Attachment II.E. I I cq M 0 C Ud Ci 6 0 42 0 (D "a CO 0 0 w 0 LO rl- CO C\l Cf) Irr a C7 C7 Ci C 0 0 3: Ca CD C) 0 C) 0 0 CD 05 0 C) 0 IM CO to LO E (D x. 0 ki M E M w LO CO 0 w 't -,t CL (LD E CO E M LL LL E C�u C4 =0 cv (D >* E E E :3 U) :2 LL LL E 49 6 0 42 ua C\l Cf) Irr a C7 C7 Ci C 0 0 0 CD 05 C14 CJ C) 0 IM CO to LO E (D 0 ki M E 75 Ca 0 to (LD E CO E M LL LL E C�u C4 =0 E Ch :3 U) :2 6 0 42 Section III III. FLOWCHART OF SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE PROCESS Abstract: The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance process has two distinct components: A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (Process 1) Timeframe: In November of each year, Student Membership and Building Capacity is transmitted from the school districts to the Orange County Board of Commissioners for consideration and approval and used in the following years CIP (e.g. November 15, 2012 membership numbers used to develop a CIP to be considered for adoption in June, 2013). Process Framework 1. SAPFOTAC projects future student membership from historical data, current membership and hypothetical growth rates from established methodologies. 2. School Districts and BOCC compare projections to existing capacity and proposed Capital Investment Plan. 3. SAPFOTAC forwards data and projections to all Schools APFO partners. 4. School Districts develop Capital Investment Plan Needs Assessment during this process 5. The Capital Investment Plan work sessions and Public Hearings are conducted by the BOCC in the spring of each year. 6. The adoption of CIP that sets forth monies and timeframe for school construction (future capacity) by BOCC. 43 55 LO I 0 U V • I� c�c � ICI J T • 1 0 IEI A� A O �O I� V L �I P1 I� 1 V H O N N a � pow O U � U 7= � H T N �C� O C�] 78 y � O � x � I W W C� ct � a � U ,Ct N U � � N � N N N U Attachment IILA1 C, c x r" to cl U � U +C� Cl U C ' c. cl to O � � to U cl CT O p� to U 'C ' O cn p. cl �- Po � U U to -o p 0O .� C 7 on C U O N O U � o � O N � OO N 7� T N �C� O C�] 78 y � O � x � I W W C� ct � a � U ,Ct N U � � N � N N N U Attachment IILA1 C, c x r" to cl U � U +C� Cl U C ' c. cl to O � � to U cl CT O p� to U 'C ' O cn p. cl �- Po � U U to -o p 0O .� C 7 on C U Section III B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Update (Process 2) 57 Timeframe: The CAPS system is updated approximately November 15 of each year when the school districts report actual membership and `pre - certified' capacity, whether it is CIP associated or prior `joint action' agreement. `Joint action' determinations of changes in capacity due to State rules or other non - construction related items are anticipated to be done prior to the November 15 capacity and membership reporting date. This update may reflect the Board of County Commissioners action on the earlier year Capital Investment Plan (CIP) as it affects capacity and addition of new actual fall membership. The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) stays in effect until the following year — (e.g.: November 15, 2005 to November 14, 2006). New development is originally logged for a certain year. As the CAPS system is updated, each CAPS projection year is `absorbed' by the actual estimate of a given year. Later year CAPS projections of the same development remain in the future year CAPS system accordingly. For example, if a 50 -lot subdivision is issued a CAPS, 15 lots may be assigned to "Year 1," 10 lots to "Year 2," 10 lots to "Year 3," 10 lots to "Year 4," and 5 lots to "Year 5." When "Year 1" is updated, the students generated from the 15 lots are absorbed by the actual estimate. The students generated in "Years 2, 3, 4, and 5" are held in the CAPS system and added to the appropriate year when the CAPS system is updated. As was discussed in Section II.C, The City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO and does not require that CAPS be issued prior to approving development activities. However, residential development within the Orange County portion of Mebane has increased dramatically prior to 2009 but has slowed considerably due to the current economic climate. Currently, there are approximately 1,000 approved by undeveloped residential lots in portion of Mebane that lies within Orange County. Increasing development within this area of the county has the potential to encumber a significant portion of the available capacity within the Orange County School 45 Section III District. Although the SAPFO system is not formally regulated in Mebane, staff monitors development activity and when students enter the school system their enrollment is calculated and used in future school projection needs. As has been noted in various preceding sections of this report, changes to the CAPS system are anticipated to occur this year due to a N.C. Supreme Court ruling in August 2012. Please note that the two processes (CIP and CAPS) are on separate but parallel tracks. However, the CIP does create a crossover of capacity information between the two processes. For example, the Schools APFO system for both school districts that will be established / initiated / certified each year in November and is based on prior year created and / or planned CIP capacity and current school year membership. The SAPFOTAC report including new current year membership and projections are to be used for upcoming CIP development as noted in Process 1. CIP Process 1 (for CIP 2013 — 2023) November 2012 — June 2013 (using 2013 SAPFOTAC Report) Schools APFO CAPS Process 2 (for Schools APFO System 2013— 2014) November 2012 - November 2013 we rn LO �V �I I��II u T I� O �O I� V L .0 V V 0 V V • �I �I W V �I ,e U z rA a� M_ O N S-i N Z b�A OO N O N N N N U N N M O N O U � CX U O 3 0 g-. .> .> O N U U � � O t.0 ct �_o U N � U � � a N � N N ^� (>j f—I � � O Ct Ct � O � U N 0 3 a o [� Ct C� N^^ N � V� o R U O � N � N U vUi 'C 4-1O �O cl � +' O N � OU � U NII i O Al i O V a� Attachment IILB1 N � C� o R U O � N U vUi 'C �O cl � +' O V1 OU � U clilo a� V Q C�j N �_,.-0 C�j ~ ~ C�j C U . cd O O > N V^1~��� po �I � C�j p 'C � U U • � Cj U p U F. C�j C�j CA U p Attachment IILB1 IZT C� o U � U vUi 'C �O cl Cl. � U +' O OU clilo a� IZT C� o � U vUi 'C �O cl clilo a� po :z c po O. 'C � U U • � U p U F. cj cl CA U p o cl U U + po + 'C Cd "C � bA C, ' � , � U cd 4a U O � 0 � � � � CA � P- 0 O O U M c U) p.. R" I U l U cl CZ cn U U U U cl O P. .O U cl Q un IZT Attachment 2 A motion was made by Alderman Gist, seconded by Alderman Johnson, that this resolution be adopted. A RESOLUTION ACCEPTING AND COMMENTING ON THE SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE (SAPFOTAC) DRAFT 2013 REPORT BE IT RESOLVED by the Town of Carrboro Board of Aldermen, that the Aldermen have received Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee Drat 2013 Annual Report. The motion carried by the following vote: Aye: Alderman Gist, Alderman Haven - O'Donnell, Alderman Johnson, Alderman Lavelle, Alderman Slade and Alderman Seils 1, Catherine C. Wilson, Town Cleric for the Town of Carrboro, NC do hereby certify that the foregoing is a true and correct copy of a rmlution adopted by the Carrboro Board of Aldermen_ .9 61 Attachment 3 HMEL HILL - ARMOR0 x C I T Y SC H 00 LS Date: May 3, 2013 To: Craig Benedict, Orange County Planning Director From: Todd LoFrese, Assistant Superintendent for Support Services Re: SAPFOTAC Draft Annual Report Comments On May 2, 2013, administration presented the draft SAPFOTAC annual report to the Board at the regular Board of Education meeting. As requested, Board members shared their thoughts and feedback with respect to the draft report. A summary of that feedback is contained below. Culbreth Science Labs: The Board previously made a formal request to the Commissioners for funding to construct a 6 room science lab addition. The science room addition has been in our CIP since 2002. Students at Culbreth are not having the same experience as our other middle school students due to the inadequacy of the existing spaces at Culbreth. Teachers are struggling to provide hands on learning opportunities simply for the fact they lack access to water. Furthermore, teachers report having to teach lessons out of sequence due to the facility limitations. It is estimated that the proposed addition would increase the capacity of Culbreth Middle School by 104 students. Based on the current projections, this would result in a two year delay in the need for Middle School #5. The Board wishes to reaffirm the continued need and prioritization of this project. Pre -K: Currently SAPFO doesn't reflect the impact of having Pre -K in our schools although this has a significant capacity impact, especially at our older schools. Our district has over 250 pre - school students enrolled in our program. This equates to eighteen classrooms that are utilized for this purpose located on all of our ten elementary school campuses. After accounting for schools that were built with a Pre -K classroom, a recent analysis (see attached) shared at the Joint Boards meeting suggests that this equates to the loss of 294 capacity seats. The Board appreciates that there continues to be an ongoing dialogue about the importance of Pre -K along with the need to recognize the impact of Pre -K on building capacity. The Board also recognizes that there are details, including current space and financial constraints that still need to be discussed. The Board looks forward to continued collaboration on this topic. Student Generation Rates: We are concerned that the student generation rates currently in use may not accurately reflect the impact of new development that is occurring in our Lincoln Center, 750 S. Merritt Mill Road - Chapel Hill, NC 27516 -2878 - (919) 967 -8211 - www.chccs.k12.nc.us 62 school system. Many of the recently approved developments have exceeded the anticipated student generation rates prior to the completion of the development. We are also seeing more students than anticipated from recently approved multi - family housing developments. It is requested that the County consider whether a new study should be performed. Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) and the SAPFO Process: There have been recent discussions about the legality of the CAPS system if a developer was denied a permit. Since there is not a pending concern about space in our schools, the Board appreciated the flexibility provided on this aspect of the SAPFO process and the willingness of the Commissioners to delay a modification to the ordinance. The Board reiterated the importance of maintaining close collaboration and communication as the various components of the SAPFO process are discussed moving forward. This will help all parties understand how different factors impact the decisions as well as understand when and how projects are funded in the CIP and how they align with the SAPFO ordinance and student projections. Please let me know if you have any questions and thanks to both you and Perdita for leading this process. Lincoln Center, 750 S. Merritt Mill Road - Chapel Hill, NC 27516 -2878 - (919) 967 -8211 - www.chccs.k12.nc.us 63 HMEL HILL ARRBORO ,C "tl` C ITY SC H 00 LS Date: April 15, 2013 To: Frank Clifton, Orange County Manager From: Todd LoFrese, Assistant Superintendent for Support Services Re: Pre -K Program Space Overview Attached is a spreadsheet overview of the Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools Pre -K Program. This is for sharing purposes for the discussion at the April 25 Joint Boards Meeting. Included on the spreadsheet are details with respect to the number and types of classrooms at each of our elementary schools. Information about the program structure, funding sources, enrollment levels, classroom type, and staffing are included. At the bottom of the spreadsheet is a capacity analysis with respect to the impact Pre -K students have on the district elementary level capacity. The analysis is included below for convenience purposes. In total the district will have 19 Pre -K classrooms next year. Of the 19 classrooms, 12 are in located within the school and 7 are located in mobile classrooms. Our newer elementary schools are designed and "constructed" with one Pre -K classroom. Therefore a total of five schools with a "constructed" Pre -K classroom exist in the district. The remaining 14 classrooms have to be absorbed into our existing school capacities. The impact of this results in the loss of seats that could otherwise be utilized for elementary purposes. The problem is exacerbated as our other 6 schools not only do not have a "constructed" Pre -K classroom, but they are also below standard (fewer number and smaller sizes) for classroom, support, administrative, and other core spaces. For SAPFO calculations we utilize a 1:21 ratio which equates to an equivalent loss of capacity of 294 students across our elementary schools. Staff will be available to answer questions at the meeting next week. 2013 -14 CHCCS Pre -K Classrooms and SAPFO In buildings 12 classrooms In mobiles 7 classrooms Total classrooms 19 classrooms Less "Constructed" Pre -K Rooms 5 classrooms Net absorbed Classrooms 14 classrooms Lost Capacity @ 1:24 336 students Lost Capacity @ 1:21 294 students IT (D 6 0 m y CL m u 0 w CL z \� \\ \ )f! \ }� j / /(>:i:: )]()/ z I } /(1) z I- z I- ! /()/ ))\) / \� \\