HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda - 05-15-2012 - 5gORANGE COUNTY
BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS
ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT
Meeting Date: May 15, 2012
Action Agenda
Item No. 5- Q
~-
SUBJECT: Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) - Approval and
Certification of 2012 Reqort
DEPARTMENT: Planning
PUBLIC HEARING: (Y/N) No
ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT:
1. 2012 SAPFOTAC Annual Report Shannon Berry, 245-2589
(UNDER SEPARATE COVER) Craig Benedict, 245-2592
2. Resolution from Town of Carrboro
3. Memorandum from CHCCS
4. School Impact Fee Changes
(for reference only)
PURPOSE: To approve the 2012 Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical
Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) Report and certify portions of the Report.
BACKGROUND: At the December 5, 2011 Board of County Commissioners' meeting, the
Board approved the November 15, 2011 actual membership and capacity numbers for both
Orange County Schools (OCS) and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS). Additional
approvals/certifications, as outlined in the table below, are required by the SAPFO partners
MOUs (Memorandum of Understanding).
At the March 13, 2012 BOCC meeting, the Board received for transmittal the draft 2012
SAPFOTAC Report. The draft report was also posted on the Orange County Planning
Department's web site. A letter and the Executive Summary of the report were sent to all
SAPFO partners on March 15, 2012 advising them of the availability of the draft Report and
inviting comments. Comments were requested for submission by April 17, 2012.
The Carrboro Board of Aldermen received the 2012 SAPFOTAC Report at its April 3, 2012
meeting and approved the attached Resolution (see Attachment 2). The Board of Aldermen had
no comments on the report. The Hillsborough Town Board received the 2012 SAPFOTAC
Report at its April 9, 2012 meeting and offered no comments. The Chapel Hill Town Council
received the 2012 SAPFOTAC Report at its April 16, 2012 meeting and had no comments.
Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS) administration presented the draft SAPFOTAC
report to the CHCCS Board of Education at the April 19, 2012 meeting. The Board of Education
did not recommend any changes to the report. However, attached is a memorandum from
CHCCS administration summarizing the discussion, which includes comments on Pre-K and
impacts to school capacity, current student generation rates, and other potential impacts on
school capacities (see Attachment 3).
2
No comments were received from Orange County Schools.
The exact pages of the 2012 SAPFOTAC report that the BOCC will be acknowledging and
certifying are listed below. The context (i.e.: definitions and standards) of the various SAPFO
elements precedes the data to be certified and is within the full Report.
Element Page in Certification to be made by BOCC
SAPFOTAC
Re ort
Building capacity 11 through 16 Building capacity and current year
with CIP changes membership for OCS and CHCCS were
approved at the December 5, 2011
Chan e from revious ear meetin .
Student membership projection 19 Certification that the average of 5 models
methodology will be used, as noted in #3 on page 19
(No Change from previous year)
Student membership projections 35 and 36 • Orange County Elementary, Middle, and
High Schools Student Projections (row
that notes average only) (p. 35)
• Chapel Hill/Carrboro Elementary,
Middle, and High Schools Student
(Change from previous year) Projections (row that notes average
onl . 36
Student Growth Rate 37 • Orange County Elementary, Middle, and
High Schools
• Chapel Hill/Carrboro Elementary,
(Change from previous year) Middle, and High Schools
StudenUhousing generation rate 42 • Orange County Elementary, Middle, and
High Schools
(No Change from previous year) • Chapel Hill/Carrboro Elementary,
Middle, and Hi h Schools
FINANCIAL IMPACT: Based on 10-year student growth projections, CHCCS has projected
capital facility construction needs as follows:
New Elementary #11 2012-2013
New Middle School #5 2017-2018
Expanded High School 2020-2021
Based on 10-year student growth projections, OCS has projected capital facility construction
needs as follows:
New Elementary 2020-2021
Neither the Orange County Planning nor non-departmental proposed budgets include any
contractual services monies for reanalysis of student generation rates or school impact fees.
The last of a 4-year school impact fee escalation concluded on January 1, 2012 (see
Attachment 4). Those fees reflected an approximate 60% recuperation of actual costs to
provide for `student stations' based on a 2007-08 consultant study. Staff will work with the
SAPFOTAC partners to analyze existing conditions and future trends and present
recommendations for additional studies, or not, for the 2013-14 fiscal year.
RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends the Board approve the 2012
SAPFOTAC Annual Report and certify those aspects of the Report detailed in the summary
table above.
Attachment 1
ORANGE COUNTY, NC
SCHOOLS 1~DEQUATE PUBLIC
FACILITIES ORDINANCE
PREPARED BY A STAFF COMMITTEE: PLANNING DIRECTORS,
SCHOOL REPRESENTATIVES, TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE
(SAPFOTAC)
(PURSUANT TO PROVISIONS OF A MEMORANDUM OF
UNDERSTANDING ADOPTED I1v 2002 & 2003)
(ORDINANCES ADOPTED IN JULY, 2003~
Annual Re ort
p
2012
(BASED ON NOVEMBER 2011 DATA~
CERTIFIED BY THE BOCC ON ~~XXXX
Table of Contents
Page
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ i
Introduction ......................................................................................................................... iv
Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Partners ............................................ ~
Planning Directors, School Representatives, Technical Advisory
Committee (SAPFOTAC) members ....................................................................... ~~
I. Base Memorandum of Understaoding
A. Level of Service .............................................................................
1
B. Building Capacity ........................................................................
2
Attachment: I.B.1. - Orange County School Capacity (Elementary, Middle & High) (2010-11) ................... 5
Attachment: I.B.2. - Chapel Hill/Carrboro Schood Capaciry (Elementary, Middle & High) (2010-11)............ 8
Attachment: I.B.3. - Orange County School Capacity (Elementary, Middle & High) (2011-12) .............. ... ....11
Attachment: I.B.4. - Chapel Hill/Carrboro School Capacity (Elementary, Middle & High) (2011-12) ..... .. ...... 14
C. Membership Date ............. ............................................................... i~
II. Annual Update to Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance System
A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) ......................................................... is
B. Student Membership Projection Methodology ...................................... i9
Attachment: II.B.1. - Student Membership Projection Descriptions ...... ... ... ... ... ... ...... ....... ........... ... ... .... 20
Attachment: II.B.2. - Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis for 2010-11 .................. 21
Attachment: II.B.3. - Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis for 2011-12 .................. 25
C. Student Membership Projections ...................................................... 29
Attachment: II.C.1. - Orange County Student Projections (Elementary, Middle & High) (2010-11) .............. 33
Attachment: II.C.2. - Chapel HilUCarrboro Student Projections (Elementary, Middle & High) (2010-11)....... 34
Attachment: II. C.3. - Orange County Student Projections (Elementary, Middle & High) (2011-12) ... ... ... 35
Attachment: II.C.4. - Chape! HilUCarrboro Student Projectiorrs (Elementary, Middle & High) (2011-12)....... 36
D. Student Membership Growth Rate ............................................ .................. 3~
Attachment: II.D.1. - Orange County & Chapel HilUCarrboro Student Growth Rates
Chart dates from 2011- 2021 based on I1/IS/10 membership numbers (2010-11) .................................. 38
Attachment: II.D.2. - Orange County & Chapel HilUCarrboro Student Growth Rates
Chart dates from 2012 - 2022 based on 11/1 S/I1 membership numbers (2011-12) ........... .......................... 39
E. Student / Housing Generation Rate ... . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . . . ... . . ... ... .... 40
. . . ... .. . . ... . ...
Attachment: II.E.1. -Current Student Generation Rates (2007) ..................... ..................................... 42
III. Flowchart of Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Process
A. Process 1- Capital Investment Plan ...................................................................... 43
Attachment: III A.1. - Process 1 Capital Investment Plan ... ... ... ... ...... ... ... ... ...... ... ... ... ... ..................... 44
B. Process 2- Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance;
Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) System ..................................... as
Attachment: Ill B.1. - Process 2 Certifrcate ofAdequate Public Schools (CAPS) Allocation .......................... 47
2012 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary
I. Base Memorandum of Understanding
A. Level of Service ..............................................(No Change).........Pg. 1
Chapel HilUCarrboro
School District Orange County
School District
Elementa 105% 105%
Middle 1 ~7% 1 ~~%
Hi h 110% 110%
B. Building Capacity and Membership .........................(Change)..........Pg. 2
Chapel HilUCarrboro
School District Orange County
School District
Capacity Membership Increase from
Prior Year Capacity Membership Increase from
Prior Year
Elementa 5244 5464 168 3694 3348 63
Middle 2840 2753 31 2166 1704 6
Hi h 3875 3714 74 2558 2283 61
C. Membership Date - November 15 ........................ (No Change).......Pg.17
II. Annual Update to SAPFO System
A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) .............................(Change)..........Pg.18
B. Student Membership Projection Methodology.......(No Change).......Pg. 19
The average of 3; S, and 10 year history/cohort survival, linear and arithmetic projection models.
C. Student Membership Projections ..............................(Change)...........Pg.29
Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2011-12 School Year - Chapel Hill Carrboro City Schools
(The number in brackets [n] is the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. A number in parenthesis
within the brackets [(n) ] indicates the projection was low compared to the actual whereas a number not in parenthesis indicates the
ro'ection was hi com azed to the actual.
Year Projection Made for 2011-12 Membership
Actua12011 2p06-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
Element Membershi
5464
5654 190
5718 254
5623 159
5503 39
5398 66
Middle 2753 2902 149 2924 171 2885 132 2791 38 2749 4
3687 27
Hi 3714 3787 73 3860 146 3861 147] 3724 10
Executive Summary
Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2011-12 School Year - Orange County Schools
(The number in brackets [n] is the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. A number in parenthesis
within the brackets [(n) ] indicates the projection was low compared to the actual whereas a number not in parenthesis indicates the
ro'ection was hi h com ared to the actual.
Year Projection Made for 2011-12 Membership
Actua12011
Membershi 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
Element 3348 3297 51 3464 116 3287 61 3304 44 3362 14
Middle 1704 1718 14 1724 20 1691 8 1732 28 1716 12
Hi 2283 2226 57 2249 34 2238 45 2274 9 2263 ZO
D. Student Growth Rate ............................................(Change)..........Pg. 37
Avera e Annual Growth Rate over 10 Years
Chapel H~[UCarrboro
School District Orange County
School District
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Elementa 1.85% 1.5% 1.72% 1.44% 1.59% 1.84% 1.16% 1.34% 1.57% 1.6%
Middle 2.58% 2.03% 1.93% 1.67% 1.94% 1.78% 1.44% 1.53% 1.84% 2.01%
Hi h 2.31% 2.21% 1.8% 1.57% 1.73% 1.49% 1.0% 1.38% 1.59% 1.61%
E. Student / Housing Generation Rate ....................(No Change)...........Pg. 40
SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE 5TATUS
(based on future year Student Membership Projections)
CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT
Elementary School District
A. Does not exceed 105% LOS standard (current LOS is 104.2%).
B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a greater rate over the
next 10 years.
C. The projections are showing a need for Elementary School #11 in 2012-13 by a projected
overcapacity of 66 students. Elementary School #11 is expected to open in the fall of
2013. However, if the 2012 membership numbers (to be reported November 15, 2012)
and/or CAPS issued /requested meet or exceed the established Elementary level LOS, the
issuance of further CAPS may be impacted until Elementary School #11 is opened and
additional Elementary level capacity is added.
Middle School District
A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standards (current LOS is 96.9%).
B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a greater rate over the
next 10 years.
C. Chapel Hi1UCarrboro Middle School #5 is projected to be needed in 2017-18.
ii
~--
Executive Summary
High School District
A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard (current LOS is 95.8%).
B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a greater rate over the
next 10 years.
C. Expansion of Carrboro High School from the initial capacity of 800 students to the
ultimate capacity of 1,200 students is projected to be needed in 2020-21.
ORANGE COUNTYSCHOOL DISTRICT
Elementary School District
A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard (current LOS is 90.6%).
B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a greater rate over the
next 10 years.
C. Projections are showing a need for an additional Elementary School in 2020-21.
Middle School District
A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard (current LOS is 78.7%).
B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a greater rate over the
next 10 years.
C. Does not affect or prompt CIP activity in 10-year time frame. However, staff is
monitoring new development activity in the Orange County portion of Mebane, which is
not a party to the Schools APFO MOU at this time.
High School District
A. Does not currently exceed 110% LOS (current LOS is 89.2%).
B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase at a greater rate over the
next 10 years.
C. Does not affect or prompt CIP activity in 10-year time frame. However, Orange County
Schools has requested the N.C. Department of Public Instruction (DPI) re-examine the
capacity rating of Orange High School. This assessment could result in a significant
decrease in capacity at the high school level. Any capacity modifications approved by
DPI prior to the November 15, 2012 reporting date would become effective with the
approval of the 2012-13 membership and capacity numbers.
iii
Orange County, NC School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance
INTRODUCTION
The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance and its Memorandum of
Understanding are ordinances and agreements, respectively. Supporting documents are
anticipated to be dynamic to incorporate the annual changing conditions of inembership, capacity
and student projections that may affect School Capita.l Investment Plan (CIP) timing. This
formal annual report will be forthcoming to all of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities
Ordinance partners each year as new information is available.
This updated information is used in the schools capital needs process of the Capital
Investment Plan (Process 1) and within elements of the Schools Adequate Public Facilities
Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) spreadsheet system (Process 2).
This report and any comments from the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance
partners will be considered in the first half of each year by the Board of County Commissioners
at a regular or special meeting. The various elements of the report are then "certified" and
formally considered in the process of the upcoming Capital Investment Plan. The Certificate of
Adequa.te Public Schools system is updated after November 15 when data is received from the
school districts with actual membership and pre-certified capacity (i.e. CIP capacity or prior
"joint action" capacity changes).
The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance and Memorandum of Understanding
have dynamic aspects. The derivation of the baseline and update to the variables will continue in
the future as a variety of school related issues are fine-tuned by technical and policy groups.
The primary facet of this report includes the creation of mathematical projections for
student memberships by school levels (Elementary, Middle and High) and by School Districts
(Chapel HilUCarrboro and Orange County). This information is found in Section II, Subsections
B, C, D, and E.
In summary, this report serves as an update to the dynamic conditions of student
membership and school capacity which effect future projected needs considered in Capital
Investment Pla.nning.
Interested parties may make their comments known to the Board of County
Commissioners prior to their review of the report and school CIP completion or ask questions of
the SAPFOTAC members.
iv
ANNUAL REPORT AS OUTLINED IN
Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Memorandum
of Understanding (Schools APFO MOU)
SECTION ld
RESPECTFULLY SUBMITTED
TO SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES
ORDINANCE PARTNERS
Chapel Hi1UCarrboro School District
School APFO
Board of County Commissioners
Carrboro Board of Aldermen
Orange County School District
School APFO
Board of County Commissioners
Hillsborough Town Council
Chapel Hill Town Council
Chapel HilUCarrboro School Board
Orange County School Board
v
Planning Directors/School Renresentatives
Technical Advisorv Committee
(aka SAPFOTAC)
Town of Carrboro
Trish McGuire, Planning Director
301 West Main Street
Carrboro, NC 27510
Town of Chapel Hill
J.B. Culpepper, Planning Director
405 Martin Luther King, Jr. Blvd.
Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514
Town of Hillsborough
Margaret Hauth, Planning Director
P.O. Box 429
Hillsborough, NC 27278
Orange County Planning Department
Craig Benedict, Planning Director and
Shannon Berry, Special Projects Planner
131 W. Margaret Lane
P.O. Box 8181
Hillsborough, NC 27278
Orange County School District
Patrick Rhodes, Superintendent and
George McFarley, Chief Operating Officer
200 E. King Street
Hillsborough, NC 27278
Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District
Todd LoFrese, Assistant Superintendent for Support Services and
Kevin Morgenstein Fuerst, Coordinator of Student Enrollment
750 Merritt Mill Road
Chapel Hill, NC 25716
vi
I.
BASE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING
A. Level of Service
1.
Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change - Change can only be effectuated by
amendment to Memorandum of Understanding (MOL~ by all School APFO partners.
Definition - Level of Service (LOS) means the amount (level) of students that can be
accommodated (serviced) at a certain school system grade group
[i.e., Elementary level (K-5), Middle Level (6-8), High School Level (9-12)].
Standard for: Standard for:
Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District
2
3.
Elementary Middle High School Elementary Middle High School
105% 107% 110% 105% 107% 110%
4. Analysis of Existing Conditions
Chapel Hill Carrboro School District
These standards are acceptable at this time.
Analysis of Existing Conditions
Orange County School District
These standards are acceptable at this time.
S. Recommendation -
No Change from above standard
Recommendation-
No Change from above standard
Section I
2.
3.
B. Building Capacity
Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change - The Planning Directors, School Representatives,
Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) will receive requested changes that are CIP
related and adopted in the prior year. CIP capacity changes will be updated along with actual
membership received in November of each year.
Other changes will be sent to a`Joint Action Committee' of the BOCC and Board of Education,
as noted in the MOU, who will make recommendations and forward changes (on the specific
forms with justification) to the full Board of County Commissioners for review and action.
These non-CIP changes would be updated in the upcoming November CAPS system
recalibration and included in the SAPFOTAC report.
Definition- "For purposes of this Memorandum, "building capacity" will be determined by
reference to State guidelines and the School District guidelines (consistent with CIP School
Construction Guidelines/policies developed by the School District and the Board of County
Commissioners) and will be determined by a joint action of the School Board and the Orange
County Board of Commissioners. As used herein the term "building capacity" refers to
permanent buildings. Mobile classrooms and other temporary student accommodating classroom
spaces are not permanent buildings and may not be counted in determining the school districts
building capacity."
Standard for:
Chapel Hill Carrboro School District
The original certified capacity for each of the
schools was certified by the respective
superintendent and incorporated in the initialization
of the CAPS system (Chapel Hill Carrboro School
District Apri129, 2002 - Base)
Capacity changes were made each year as follows:
2003: Increase of 619 at Rashkis Elementary.
2004: No changes at Elementa.ry, Middle, or High
School levels.
2005: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High
Standard for:
Orange County School District
The original certified capacity for each of the
schools was certified by the respective
superintendent and incorporated in the
initialization of the CAPS system (Orange
County School District April 30, 2002 - Base)
Capacity changes were made each year as
follows:
2003: No net increase in capacity at
Elementary level. No changes at Middle
School level. Increase of 1,000 at Cedar Ridge
2
Section I
School levels.
2006: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High
School levels.
2007: An increase of 800 at the High School level
with the opening of Carrboro High School.
2008: An increase of 323 at the Elementary School
level due to the opening of Morris Grove Elementary
School and the implementation of the 1:21 class size
ratio in grades K-3
2009: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High
School levels.
2010: An increase in capacity of 40 students at the
High School level with Phoenix Academy High
School becoming official high school within the
district
2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or High
School levels.
High School.
2004: No net increase in capacity at
Elementary level. No changes at Middle or
High School levels.
2005: An increase in capacity of 100 at
Hillsborough Elementary with the completion
of renovations.
2006: An increase in capacity of 700 at the
Middle School level with the completion of
Gravelly Hill Middle School and an increase of
15 at the High School level with the temporary
location of Partnership Academy Alternative
School. An increase of 2 at the Elementary
level due to a change in the capacity
calculation for each grade at each school.
2007: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or
High School levels.
2008: A decrease of 228 at the Elementary
School level due to the implementation of the
1:21 class size ratio in grades K-3 and an
increase of 25 at the High School level with the
completion of the new Partnership Academy
Alternative School.
2009: IVo changes at Elementary, Middle, or
High School levels.
2010: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or
High School levels.
2011: No changes at Elementary, Middle, or
High School levels.
3
Section I
4. Analysis of Existing Conditions
Chapel Hill Carrboro School District
The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a
Analysis of Existing Conditions
Orange County School District
The Schools Facilities Task Force developed a
system to calculate capacity. Any changes year to
year will be monitored, reviewed, and recorded by
the SAPFOTAC on approved forms distributed to
SAPFO partners and certified upon approval by
the Board of County Commissioners each year.
The requested 2011-12 capacity is noted on
Attachment I.B.4
system to calculate capacity. Any changes
year to year will be monitored, reviewed, and
recorded by the SAPFOTAC on approved
forms distributed to SAPFO partners and
certified upon approval by the Board of
County Commissioners each year.
The requested 2011-12 capacity is noted on
Attachment I.B.3
5. Recommettdation - Accept school capacities Recommendatiotz - Accept school
at all levels, as reported by CHCCS and
shown in Attachment I.B.4.
capacities at all levels, as reported by OCS
and shown in Attachment I.B.3.
4
� Section I Attachment I.B.1
(page lof 3)
2010-11
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5
Section I Attachment I.B.1 �
(page 2 of 3)
2010-11
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� =�9�;t��i ':i,pi i ; . ... t���,,s�14�itn�r�` ,
,f#uY�.�.��„� �: a.��3t_;���:� �,t.i�y (ri ..;1.��i����,�s. 1.2-.i�,(��� � ��H.iuii,d4l�ty.
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Superintendr.n� 13c�ic 130CG Cheif � ��� {���k�:
fVleml�ersl:ip 1:�rtifica#�on:
Yl/'
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— : (-vcU C�� l ;� t �.:.. f� � a_�.M.b �.�w� %
Superinier�denl Il;ric DOCC Chaar �(7:rie
6
Section I Attachment I.B.1
(page 3of 3)
2010-11
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SChou)l�istrict 1 h me�,•� <,uinti � ii ���•.
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SAPF��APS Year: `:,,�rr��b�i i} `�a�+�-;,,e�irtLrr l�1.'11!!
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Capar.ity a�id Phen�t�crsltiip�isl�rc3i2#.�l�l�tc: '� ��in!�_r i ..
t�;it t��i: {�Ii +ip} ��(�}.. ���� :i i �� << Ei U3, ��
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SpociolNotc�::):i I �il�, ^:,.�.�ui��t, •� � i •.,�:�h•�P. u�I:�:..psrJ�hc•�,i,�u��,,.s.��i,.�n��.d, � „�� .�.a.���„iil�. 4.�„ ,II...�I�u�. '
i.�-I.Ir����r��r��.md'����:I'I.irnj,�..�n,.l••,I��.••II'�.pr;.,-n1.tl��+�I�,.1nr,:.J \4Ai.�n�t�:uv�ulr.�i:.��,.n IL�...,.i�..,,��t....illirwnai.-tk.n�:i�cnd �ii
JI.�u:�r�.l!���!i rii,••..li..�d a II'�n I"i�t:�.un��s�L,l+r��.���n.�l f4u•.I,nm Iii.�r r.:rt I�ii..!bt Ili:fS�}S l
J�t,tifacatiotr:
�a��ciiy Certifiir�ti��i:
. L�� VC.C�a-4�. lLi�f.l7.���.� �--��i) /� �, :� s �i�.`�„�Lth� ��.al,t,�. . _ i."-��% j,,
,Sv ...�-� �.. ...�.-. _..�.. � ..
SU�3<�rinl�md��nl 11,i1c li(7(1C Clr.iir f7:i1��
l49cri�berslii�� Cr.rtNiir::�tdoai:
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/ ' �. ��c���� �'���.�1'�_�� � �� l�i ' �� � � -.�P��-�.�,, � � c�.�,x.�_, ..�', �'t.=f f
Supc:rinlr:�Nlrtit "_._.. m t)t�l�r (iUt:L'(:Iciu I).tle,
7
- 'i
Attachment I.B.2
Section I (page 1 of 3)
2010-11
�
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i�ara ovein cr 5, - ovem er 1 ,"Z
a,paa y ar� em ers p u ►n a a er ,�uvem er >
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p I1 4F I k�}'t��YM1 � .wl���� � 9♦ � . � �, ��t �
F � . . , ra,:. . . . .
�;�t7h01'�i. . ��,�32 s3� ��,i 533` .. .��� . 53S-- � 53'7
Cph�su�+�` r,6,9s1 ' 4gfi 1 i8 ' �44�t <!98 �� 59:1� ��. a3b
Lstee 11t119 56?99 ` 527 �s27 . 527 �2'7 52'7 495
Cilcn�qii�il : 51},75,1 '! �t23 423 �12� �d23 � A23 a6G
t I?,tir�6�i�tt ':. �55,689 :. .53�Y 53R ' S38 538 53R �l:+$
bfcl�ougia _ : 98,Onn . 56g �64 56h 564 364 55?,
lta�hkls':`� ' 9�,729 � 5ts5 StIS �5$5 �8S � 58.5 , 551.
5cto��,s.`. ' 94980 '< 'S75 595= ' S75 5%S „ 575 60S
Sctnvcll.' S29&96 ? '�h6 156 4ti6 �l66 AfiG ':: 55�
i�lotrts Cirovc 90,22) :� >`0 11 - 585 58� S85 (�lO
,_ �_ .
Taiul."= ,.: 729,3b2 .. , .4,fi59 4,659 .:;,N.._:5;24�1 , 5.2d4, '.5;2a9 _.5;226,
$pee(a!Nofe(sj: L Fur d:e Nnvember 1 S,7.15(12 basc ycar the bonrd accupWd ilte,u�erintendcut-certilicd tapncitics as p;�rt oY[tie Sch.^,ol I�acilit�es
'1'uk Fotce rzvic,v aud 2003 Pl�uters nnd Seheal Itepew^�nlative Teehoiv�!AJvisory Cemmitlee Repert. 'lhese c:�par.ities wili ecmuiu e1:te:ive uu�il
ch:.�n�,cd 6y O)lhr,5chcol CfP m(2)an:unenJcJ�•t�sicm nf ihis Ibrtn that is ccrlificJ Ly�c HOCC.
dfus�iiica�+ora;
'Is'r3�i�d..`l'��/�r'Ci'�1�fC9A%09A:
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Sup�erintende�t Date B()CC Chair � Uate
t19�,raib�rship Cerfificafion:
,�
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upenntendent 17ate BOCCGhair ' �ii)atc
g
SeCtion I Attachment I.B.2
(page 2 of 3)
2010-11
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�r. , �vcm er l_,"Ol -\ovc��mG�r 1�7,'1.UI D
a}�ac y�ra e»i ers p tr m� a a e: Novaro acr 5, U10 �_.�g'�'��u -
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c��3�tz�t,_�. �i'a��,ns� � n��t� v�a r�l�� �3��; � v�+� 1 �:�c�� '
��cDougle,, ,';:'. I3b,].27 732 732 ' 7.�2 732: �• 732 G66
Phillips,'.:. - 1i19,14$ 7U6 `lUb 10fi �Ofi °70G 673
Smitli .' 72R,9G�} . 732 '13� 7]2 13'Z 732 703
'1'uta� " �1�2,591 ':. 2,t��30 �. l,fl4tl 2,841) 2,F14U '2,89� ;' �7'22
S��eefa!Note{s): t 1 ur thc l�.uvernt�t 15.20�I�b:�<e yc�r th�tootA,.cc�r�i�l t:,e saFcriNr.sideae-ce�.�tic4 ca�utns u��r�n n(ili�Schvol l,icd�lics
'Pn,k I�r.re�r:.vicw ar.d ZU03 Ptnnnc:.:ar.A Schuul ftcgrcsentaliva Technic,i Ade'isnry CnmmAle�'Iic,nnrt.'l ltc�se capacilies t�'ill temain e17nclive uNil
cli�iFed hV(1)the SCituu!('1P vc(l)an antc��ded vc*sion of this fvnn ifiai is certificd by tl;c 90t.`.C.
./[f S'�l f�Ci'l�'J�Od7: , -
+Ga�acaty C�erfifica�ivtdt
��J�4r!/�./�—' //� f. I,le° -.�,-..../t.�'"#�--.' � � �:_t...�,i_s��._ ' j,,��'1
tt a"��1� t30CCChair Datc
xSuperinter�clent ��tg .
NN1��17l3ershf��Gertif�'�ation. __,
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Superintendent �ate BUCC Ct��ir �tP
9
Attachment I.B.2 -
Section I (page 3of 3)
2010-11
� �:,�
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£
C oo r3 r o: (. ape !L -t=arr uro �ty Sc�oo s M� m� x
ear: overn er , -s ovcm erl4,'l 1
apact y an etYi eYS tp u m a a e. Novem er 5,"LOi U
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CltapelHill � 2tE,111 ' 1;,52ti i.�?.b 1.;�21! 1,520 , , 1,520 �� - � 1,325�
$aslCh;ipe�11111�- 7.59,869: �'1�5�G5 I 5I5��;� �� i��;5,15 1;515 �. � 1,5.CS 7,�121�
Carrboro' 1d8,02]' �- . 0 300;:; ,30� 3i)0 � . 8Q0 $$4 .
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Tafstl� ;:'.' 654,210' ''3,035 3,835": . :a;835 3,R35 ` .-.�,875 .•;.3,b70
SpecTol�*lotel$J= I. Pur�hc Nu�cmd�cr iS,100'L h�se y�u Fhe 6oard ar.u:ptcd iEie superiutcndcfinecrti€icJ capnciQCS as pait nf�hr.Sd�r,nl I�acilitics'I'adc i
Focce review eud 20U3 Plnnn.�n imd tich�n7 kepnsentative Technicnl Ad�isury Canu�iltr:e 12epnR."1�6e�_ca�>1cilies will rtmain efftctive unlil chun�ed ty(t) ;
ihc Scliool C[P or(7.)�n amc�.nded vusinn nf Q�is fcrm tha[is ec�tified by ihe i3QCC.
J�rstiflczrtior�: Adding a new�tigh school facliibj. �'hoenix Academy High School became an o�cial Figh `
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school tivi4hin th�Chapel Hill-Carrboro L'ity Schools starting in th^2010-11 school year. �
t�apa�iR+��e�#s��catfvr�s
�/J �/�'�-/__,t� �:�:,,<.,��,��� ��,5�.,.�,�., �,�`�F•'t,
5uperintendent Datv BOCC Chair Date
�+lembership Cert)fdcalfr�n:
�J���/G��..r f I�I I�'I� `f�_•1°y.���.��� }_ /��yw',,� �i''���.��i t �
� a.x_ ' �
5uperiniendant Date BnCC Chair Date
,\
10
_ Attachment I.B.3
SeCtion I (page lof 3)
2011-12
. o s � � . . � ,
Schoo�DistriCt. Orange County Schnols
3AP�A�AP$Yeara t�ovcmba•1 S,2011 -�c�vemb2r 14,2U 12 - _..-�,,�.
Cap�l�ity�nd Membership Sal�mi#tai ��4e; ;Vovember 15,201 l ����.�,Y ,V .�_
_. _ .
�,,. � .���� �,��, �1. I�If: I' 9 f�11! � l�I� ° 1 1"'����t��,t�.rS�� + �' . i.�� �'"�'��iq r
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�C�mei�c�n Park 70,�512 Sb5 �;65 56S �<�� 5fi� Ci3�l
�('entrAt :�"Z,�192 �155 I�S 455 x�» 455 278
�EFlandCheeks G�d,31h 497 �f97 R97 �191 4y7 �15R
1Grady t�rown '1-i,Ai6 544 �rl�l S4A i=1�7 544 4$6
�t[illsb�roubh 5i,�06 471 -17� A71 �k71 <471 d24
�1Vew Hope: tUO,ib�1 586 53b S8G ti86 SR6 605
I'att»vays 85,282 576 �76 576 576 57C 463
'fotAi �198,1R8 3,69d 3,69d 3,694 3,6?4 3,694 3,3a8
_ _ __m��.�,_...�.�...� _
Speeial Ptote(s): ! har d7.•N�eccin(nis I5,a�'�)_b�sc ccar Ate b�iaid.iccepted Il�c.uperinlenden6�erfifie,l aq�aci�ics as pvi ol tl�c tielic?«I I;ocililic:
l'a.n E nr.•.•rrricn und?fN13 Planneri iu�A tich.w�f Itepre<�nsnti.e l rshni�af Ad�Gsor�Cim�nullrc Rc�xnl. Th�s�cap�iciiicti uill rcm;un eifi�cli�e mttil
c6aa��cd hti(I 1 Iln Schonl CI('of t?1;tii 7nic»:ltJ�.•r.ir,ri F,I Ilns linm p�al is Ccttili�ti b�thC C1UC't�.
�:1t7S�$9����IrDti;
���H�C9t1/�e'rk6f�C��ia�Y1� �
,f� ��'�� ��
5uperintendent Date BOCC Chair Date
Nt��#��rship�ertif'�a3ion:
r
r cu ��� V �t�+.�. �� "lG '1 f ' _ � _. .�.. � �
Sunerintendent dat� BOCC Ghair � Date
11
Attachment I.B.3 .
Section I (page 2 of 3)
2011-12
I
. � • . • � , .
Schs�oi tlist�3ct. (h•ange Cnunty Schools
$�1PF0 CAPS Year: Vov�mUer I>,201 l-NovemUer I�1,2012
�ap�aity and Membe�ship SubmiRtal Date» tvovember 15,201 t -
'z"j�% �..e d�'1�t�� I�f, `�.,�„K. ,�r 1'� f�� I i e��``r�'�'.��,-� ��
� � � � '.�.�� i
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. ,� » � �. 3 : � ��
�3e�'.� `� �� e i�:.�.� �"'�� �',n 0 • � a �.
A.L.Stariback 136,t1p0 740 ?�10 7�10 7-10 7=40 6p7
i C.W.5tan1'ard 107,620 726 7"?6 72b 7?_G 72
� t
� *�..,
6 � (�30
Gravelly Hill 123,f100 700 70(? 700 700 700 472
Total� 366,62U 2,16b 2,1Gb 2,166 2,166 2,166 1704
Speeial Note(s): f f+,r tBc i lot�tinhir I i,iOp?b,i�c�c:ir the 6oa�d �cicplcd Ilie,ii�rintend�•m-crr�ilied capnciti��.;n p:ui al lhe S�huol f�ciliue;
7+i.k Fnrce reti'ie�v and 101)3 Pl�mners antl Soht>ot Rzpres�nl�titi�e'fachnital�1Jcisuil'Co�tiEmtice Kepud. �I loca cnpuri�i��t��ll rcin,�fn el�ecti�-e 4uqil
eh;ui�eed b}(I i Ihe tichuul('7P nr t?);sn amandeA versoon i7(this tnnn Ih.it i<rcrti�ird b�lhc Q(1Cl'
c�t�st��i�ationo
�na�jl�i#��s�rYifi��tiaara;
<
+_
,�. �,_���� �f.:ld °Ic .
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SuperintendenY Date F30CC Cfiair Date
�A���bersi�i�Certificatic�n:
�,,�.. �(� ����.ti. � `�!'b=�J � r , .
Superintendent Date BOCC Chair f�a#�n
12
Attachment I.B.3
Section I (page 3of 3)
2011-12
. . � � • . � • � , r - , .
R.��.�.�
��hool Distric�; <)s•angc('ounty Schon�s'�
��1PF0 GAP�Ye�r: TS�vGniber I�,201 I -NUVeinber 14,2Q I2, � �
_ .�,-�-,.--P...,_��:.,.._.
�[:��acity�and Merraber�hip Subm�ttai�ate: No��imber I 5,;?U I t
� � �-� �� �
�, ���' ��#j' i � ��4� �1� i�i` � �,i �=it(f a �`�� � '� t ' a #�t �� �t�
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y `�.. .�..�i �. , ,�� !�d '�'afi�1:. �;'*:' r i a'.�„�- � '�k',. �s�,�".�z.��,..� � .>�
�a�. .,. ��..,'l,
'Orange 213,�09 I,SIR I,:ii3 1,SIR 1.�18 1.�13 .1,202
�Cedar Rid�e 2i9b,91)li I,(100 I,00� I,n00 I,01)6 I.1101) 1,058
Pa�nership 5,6Q11 15 10 �10 �JO -1U 23
I
Tuta) �i27,U09 Z,533 2,�58 2,SS8 2,SS8 2,558 _ 2,283
_...�n,_�.e,,�... °-- --- —
S�]�Ci�i1 NA4e(s).1.hc r cRie�:n-cmher 1�.'IiiQ basu�r.ir�hc Lnard acu�ptcd Ihc aaqx�rirl�+nc€en�-iertiEied c�pociti.;�s Fion nl�he tii�tiunl I:iciliGrs
�ask Pasa rcv�c+v and 21)03 Plannei+anJ Schnnl Rcpicscnl:ni�c l�cclinical,1Jvix�n Cununi[tre Re�x,rt I Ixse cipaei�ic�,�+ill n:m:iin cll��athc unul
cfian�cd by��I 1 ihc�rhu«I CIP�,r{2r:ui ans�;nded��rr:ion of'thia ti�nn d�at i.ccnilicd i+y ihz Ilt�C('.
���a,�n9���3io���e
�
t>e����;i•ty��rtitir:��ic�,ie
,
/��.�� ��.��� ,��°1�_0� ,
Superintencfant DatP BOCC Ch�ir � �� Date
tU1�;��ebershi�BGartificati�n:
� �7 �� _
�` �,a� ( _�j,� t� , ��" �
K� � ���.�..s„�.�y �� a�.s>�.�..�,._-��.. z.�
Superintendent D�te IIC7CC Chair Dat�
�
13
Attachment I.B.4
Sectionl (page lof3)
2011-12
o � • . e . � ' s r ' e e
_ . .. r.u,.�.. ... ._._..
SCIIAAI �IS�f'A6�: Cl�apel Hill-Can•bar•o City Schools
���a�a����ti iYi����rs�ip�4aa�i�v►eRta!�8a��; Novemfier 15,7011
— � �, 1 I i I: I I:� I I ��{E'`i��a3l1141i ���a�o '-� �i�� I I�il��n ;� +�i=���I.i=��irjrf
ts� � �� � � � ��������
- `"�G '�§��� � � : e� r. r � � � � `s9 � -�• :� 1 Y ����
i�� ,, . .s�r �, ��� 1 d�"i�il i�I"�'� L e �
� � ' � � a;a� �. � �.� � � ���o� ; t"�i�� .�.�`,
Can�boro � �E�i33? � .53., C.S� ;�3:i � .03;5 i3_� ,�t�Si
L'•phcsus �ro5,9�:� 1�Ifi ��1i3 �I�IR �i�l3 !�#�i q�l} �I
l�,tes Hill. 56,299 527 �J7 527 �27 527 532
Glenwood �0,7(4 423 �3�3 �123 <!73 •fe3 SU5 i
I=Y Graham 66,bf39 53t3 5�t3 .53b :�3� 53H �191 I
lYlcDouglc 98,Ofl0 56a �ibst S6d �+fi�# 56d $32 I
Raslilcis 95,729 _585 S85 585 q�5 qS� 516 '
Scro��s 90,980 575 :i75 575 �i75 S75 bib ,
Seawcll 5�,$9L �l66 �tG6 d66 <!56 a66 6�I3 '
Morriti Crrove y0,221 0 5l35 585 58S S8S S69
'1'otal '729,362 4,fi59 �,2�14 5,244 5,24a 5,?�4 IT S,d6�� li
Speeial Note(s):I.Fc�r ihe Nuvr�nber 15,2002 basa year Ihe board accrptrd Ihe supeiintendenl-ceilified cap:u�ilies as paii of Ihe Schonl Fa�•ilitirs
T:uk F'onc itiair�v ancl 2UO3 Plamiers anA School Rrpresea�alive Technical Advisory ComnriUCC Rrpurt. f hesz capa�itie;tvill rzmain effective until I
changcd by f t 1 ihc Scha�,l('IP��r 12}.m anirndrd versinn nllhia r,���,�i�:,�„�r�urrd i,y�i��130CC'. �i
�a��t��a���a��,
,i
Ca cifi��e ifi atio�:
.''� ! /
�
�j�-�`, �%�����,.� G t�r�`{, �� . �
r
Superintendent Date 130CC Chair �ale
6UI�m�ser�hip������io»:
/r. ,- �� �
�' ' _ �����"`� � � , � � �
r 1� �,,c-� � L�(lS��f� �
_ _��,,��_ .�-��..�.� _�.�
Sup riniendent Date BOCC Chair Date
14
Section I Attachment I.B.4
(page 2 of 3)
2011-12
.� a • s � . . . -�� � �'�
m. ��.�,�.m. ..<��..,�=-�TeY�_ . a,
�'se:tt��l bi,4t�3�t: Chapel Hill-Can•boro City Schools
_ .
�m_ ___ _ _, ._.�
�dl��(!��PS Year: November 15,2011-November 14,2012
� _:_�„�,...,-.,.-,.t..��a--��,.�=-a�
�;�a�aaci#��eac� Il��mb$e°shiq��tabmitt�l D�tpe November 1�,201 l
_ _ .__
� �ra r� �,�" �' u �. � �I ll:;.- �y:�l���'"11�1 �11� 1 �.��19 I I.���'�I�fE$'d�{'��'���f'�� �ai r, taVu�lwlT�fr�� .
� 4l ��r ,? � � � i .' '� � �� � ���. , fll f�K'il��� ,�if�
.��''�,., a„x���� �°',�', ei� c'�"7',j�(,� W �a^� � � �����tr}Y'�'�`� � �4� 5 �r_.. oiirell"'fis•o"j
,-; s.
�,
Culbreth 10�,OS8 670 4`7{3 670 67@ ti7G G9�s
I��IcDotigl� 135,221 732 132 732 732 '1�2 GS3
Phillips l09,a98 706 '!ll6 706 '706 `P06 6dd
Smith 1�8,7f4 732 73� '732 73� 732 7�ti7
Tolai �382,�A1 2,8�10 2,8d0 �,8�k4 2,Sd0 Z,S�4l)�_ � 2,753
S�leeial Wote(8): 1. Fnr the Nuvember I5,2UU2 base}'ear the board accep�td Ihe.cupciintmdcm-ocrlilicd capaciries as p�n1 uPthe School 1'aeilitie;
1-asl:Pnrcc revie�r tmd 1003 Planncrs and Schuol kcpraSCnWlivc�I'echnical Adsisop�Cummittcc Rcport. '1'hese capacifies will remaiu eflicli��c unul
�•hanged by(11�lie Seh��ol C'IP or(l.)an amenJr.J vcr.i�rn of�his fiirn�thal is cer�ilirJ by ilte R�iC'l:.
�.H a��tific�•ti�a►a;
�>��a���?�� �,��i ic�ti�n:
��� �7 ,'��
���? -� ,� �(������E=��' . � �m.a. _r .
Superintendent Date BOCC Chair Date
�����ss�ershBp�erRifica4�a�a�
1 � � , �
� � .� ' ! ` r f �
.r ,/��y _ � ,
� ������_� �-�� . ���f�t ����� � �� � � � �
r_._.� ��.�����_�,_,,�
Superintendent Qate S(7C;C'Chair Date
15
Attachment I.B.4
Section I (page 3 of 3)
2011-12
. , • � . � . . - .
Seho�9 �is4i'i�$. Chapcl Hill-Can•boro City Sch�ols �� � �
_ . _ .� -
SAN����A�'.r"Year: November I5,2011-November 1�4,2012
��p��c�4�arexl M�rnl��*�shi�s�aebsni2t�!��t�: November 15,2011
___ ____
�� � � �`� �`t" � 1� �° �� a� � y��`� �i� � �a� "�" �
� a�i i '` i�i: e�i i �z'ii� `��i �� i'��� �i�Yi rti�a,� � 4'� ��� �� y,
�. � �
�g i 4�izE2�" �y�'� 9 �y., � �, y � � h� ;+ *'�� � , � ii�°9�Y`�Yt7�� � , i �f:
� , :,�. � �Y��.�` .;F� �Y � �,yi<`�i,�', G.. _ _ .,��i r i �'��r��;�,
�>� ,.�,ti. -� . ,� ,z
Cl�a�pel Ilill ` x����d,�1fl1 1,520 1,5"LO 1,5Z0 3,320 , 1,�211 1.353
last Chapel Hill 759,36� 1,515 i,S15 1,515 1,515 I,S l5 l,�t�i5
Can-boro 148,0'r3 800 3D0 800 �00 800 885
Phoenix Acad. g,Z07 0 0 0 �i0 40 31
I
I
��:��...
�
'fotal 65d,210 3,835 N.3,835 3,835 �'�3,975 3,875 3,71�4 �I
$�eciai Note(s): L For tl�e No�ember 1 S,^_bU2 I�asu ycar�he bnard acc�p�ed the,uperintcndent-cei tifieA cipaciiies as part of the Sciiool Facilities
Tnsk Force neiew and�003 Planners and School RepreSCnlative'I'echnical Ad�-imry Committrc Iteport. 7'hese capacilits will rtmain efrecti�•e until �I.
changed Iry�I1 thr S'choul('IP or(2)�m ameudrJ version of Ihis'fa�nt tLa1 is ce�1iiizd by ihe H1)Cf'. �,
e�0.!a'�l1�1 A���1 A ii: �
�a�a�ity��r i�°catiar�a;
,,�
.
�,,.�'l r���j�" .,�' f��,'� p�/�� � � � �
( t�' s f .� �';- . ,
Superintendent Date �� OCC Chair Date
iNe� ershi�a� r#lfi�ati�n:
l,� 'g ,�' *��r fF / �
, :���s /���':,,_ � - ���,�` ���°���� �� � ��, �
Superintendent ate ROCC Chair �� Date
�
i
i
16
Section I
2.
3.
C. Membership Date
Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change - Change can be effectuated only by amendment to
Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) by all School APFO partners. The Planning Directors,
School Representatives, Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) may advise if a change in
date would improve the reporting or timeliness of the report.
Definition - The date at which student membership is calculated. This date is updated each year
and also serves as the basis for projections along with the history from previous years. "For
purposes of this Memorandum, the term "school membership" means the actual number of
students attending school as of November 15 of each year. The figure is determined by
considering the number of students enrolled (i.e. registered, regardless of whether a student is no
longer attending school) and making adjustments for withdrawals, dropouts, deaths, retentions
and promotions. Students who are merely absent from class on the date membership is
determined as a result of sickness or some other temporary reason are included in school
membership figures. Each year the School District shall transmit its school membership to the
parties to this agreement no later than five (5) school days after November 15.
Standard for:
Chapel Hill Carrboro School District
Standard for:
Orange County School District
November 15
of each year
4
November 15
of each year
Analysis of Exasting Conditions
This will be analyzed in the future years to determine if it is an exemplary date.
So Recommendation - No change at this Recommendation - No change at this time
tame
17
Section II
II.
l.
2.
3.
ANNUAL UPDATE TO SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC
FACILITIES ORDINANCE SYSTEM
Capital Investment Plan (CIP)
A.
Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change - The updating of this section will be
conducted by the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) after review of the CIP
requests from the School Districts. Action regarding CIP programs usually occurs during
the BOCC budget Public Hearing process in the winter and spring of each year. The
development of the CIP considers the conditions noted in the SAPFOTAC report released
in the same CIP development year including LOS (level of service), capacity, and
membership projections.
Definition - The process and resultant program to determine school needs and provide
funding for new school facilities through a variety of funding mechanisms.
Standard for:
Standard for:
Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District
Not Applicable
4.
5
Orange County School District
Not Applicable
Analysis of Existing Conditions
The MOU outlines a system of implementing the SAPFO, including issuing Certificates
of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) to new development if capacity is available. The
Requests for CAPS will be evaluated using the most recently adopted Capital Investment
Plan. A new Capital Investment Plan is currently under development for approval prior
to June 30, 2012.
Recommendation -
Not subject to staff review
18
Section II
B. Student Projection Methodology
1.
Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change - This section is reviewed and recommended
by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory Committee
(SAPFOTAC) to the BOCC for change, if necessary.
Definition - The method(s) by which student memberships are calculated for future
years to determine total membership at each combined school level (Elementary, Middle
and High School) which take into consideration historical membership totals at a specific
time (November 15) in the school year. These methods axe also known as`models'.
2
Standard for:
3.
Chapel Hill Carrboro School District
Standard for:
Orange County School District
Presently, the averag.e of five models is being used: namely 3, 5, and 10 year
history/cohort survival methods, Orange County Planning Department Linear
Wave and Tischler Linear methods. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of
each model.
4.
Analysis of Existing Conditions
Performance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model is in its
prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity shortfalls so the
annual Capital Investment Plan (CIP) updates can respond proactively with siting, design, and
construction. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. Attachment II.B3 shows
the performance of the models for the 2011-12 school year from the prior year projection.
5. Recommendation -
Ten years of projection results are now available. Analysis on the accuracy of the results is
showing that some models have better results in one district while others have better results in
the other district. The historic growth rate is recorded by the models but projected future
growth is more difficult to accurately quantify. In a11 areas of the county, proposed growth is
not included in the SAPFO projection system until actual students begin enrollment. The
system is updated in November of each year, becoming part of the historical projection base.
This is especially pertinent in the Orange County School District which serves students living
within the Orange County portion of the City of Mebane which had had little historic
enrollment impact. The significant proposed residential growth occurring within Mebane's
jurisdiction has yet to be fully entered into the historically based projection methods.
19
Section II �
Attachment II.B.1
Q a�� ��� ��, m °-� m ��
� �c a � �� S $ �� $ b�
y�a - �a°�� 4�a �+. '��o° � '^°� 01 aA�.
� � �� � ��� � � �rn� m W� 3 �
� �� ��$ �� „ � ���y � ��n��
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1
� � � �t ��� s �� � ���� ����
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y � ��s � 8 � �� ���0 � ���s �9��
a �'C ���° s0 m gy.� � m�^m q�n�
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d� u. �.� � tl gyyW,, �Ey''a��.yg �e w � a^� Y y .� e _� Y � � _no�0
O. � ��� �� "^GQ � U t q e 11 �� � 11 �.�
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w
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o. c � c � � y m � �L' m �4 c'C
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� a� �'O� f3 �..�p. �:O� �p � ;9.o�
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'q � � C � y � �._� ` �O p <0 Q �� 0 O��
� 1q � � u �y aa 3 ��JC1+'rn 8 �1 m m
y L' C � G Td m V�� +S a � t�E.� = iL��,9—
3 1 y� o.� ��s' �� �j A$ o T a�
m � � m = CO �0 ���...... C�j rJ'
a:�•a
Q 'L tb iA � ��@�� � j{LQy�i�t � p L'C�L
�. � � � �'3 �� C m t� �� �pO C �''O �� W m�G .
p �. E
(� ¢ C� =G ��m� G � �� S � � C � �T>� C fS
O � � '" �� � E,—mo� m � �ro�y °�� ° s�� �
�• �� �' �� �6� �� w�E�5 �� m�Y
SQ `�a � n x
z z W
n}W, °d m
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p�, $ � � . � a�. a�.
� tb ua o
2U
Section II
A actt hment iI.B.L
(page 1 of 4)
Orange County School District
School Membership 2010-11 School Year (November 15, 2010)
11/13/09
Actual
2009-10 2010 Report
Projection for
2010-11
11/15/10
Actua12010-11
Change between actual
Nov 2009- Nov 2010
Elementa 3211 3285 +74
Model Pro'ection is
T 3339 H54
OCP 3265 L20
10C 3217 L68
5C 3228 L57
3C 3222 L63
AVG 3254 L31
11 /15/2010
Middle 1665 1698 +33
Model Pro~ection is
T 1696 L2
OCP 1672 L26
10C 1713 H15
5C 1728 H30
3C 1747 H49
AVG 1711 H13
11 /15/2010
Hi h 2217 2222 +5
Model Pro'ection is
T 2258 H36
OCP 2271 H49
10C 2198 L24
5C 2217 L5
3C 2238 H16
AVG 2236 H14
11 /15/2010
Totals
Elementa 3211 3285
Middle 1665 1698
Hi h 2217 2222
7093 7205 +112
Mode Pro'ection is
T 7293 H88
OCP 7208 H3
10C 7128 L77
5C 7173 L32
3C 7207 H2
AVG 7201 L4
H means High L means ~ow
21
Section II Attachment II.B.2
(page 2 of 4)
Orange County School District
School Membership 2010-11 School Year (November 15, 2010)
Statistical Findinqs
PROJECT/ON TYPE ABBREVIATIONS
`TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C)
ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C)
3-YEAR COHORT 3C
Elementary School Level
Projections were primarily low, ranging from 68 students low to 54 students high. The
average of the projections was 31 students lower than actual student membership.
• The membership actually increased by 74 students between November 13, 2009 and
November 15, 2010.
Middle School Level
• Projections were mixed low and high, ranging from 26 students low to 49 students high.
On average, the projections were 13 students higher than the actual membership.
• The membership actually increased by 33 students between November 13, 2009 and
November 15, 2010.
High School Level
• Projections were mixed (low and high) ranging from being low by 24 students to being
high by 49 students. One average, the projections were 14 students higher than the
actual membership.
~ The membership actually increased by 5 students between November 13, 2009 and
November 15, 2010.
TOTAL
• The totals of all school level projections were mixed low and high, ranging from 77 below
actual membership to 88 above actual membership. On average, the projections were
low by 4 students.
• The membership increased in total by 112 students, which is the sum of +74 at
Elementary, + 33 at Middle and +5 at High.
22
Section II Attachment II.B.2
(page 3 of 4)
Chapel HiIl/Carrboro School District
School Membership 2010-11 School Year (November 15, 2010)
11/13/09
Actual
2009-10 2010 Report
Projection for
2010-11 11/15/10
Actual
2010-11
Change between actual
Nov 2009- Nov 2010
Elementa 5219 5296 +77
Model Pro'ection is
T 5436 H140
OCP 5350 H54
10C 5410 H114
5C 5365 H69
3C 5346 H50
AVG 5381 H85
11 /15/2010
Middle 2708 2722 +14
Model Pro'ection is
T 2761 H39
OCP 2704 L18
10C 2767 H45
5C 2746 H24
3C 2732 H10
AVG 2742 H20
11/15/2010
Hi h 3606 3640 +34
Model Pro'ection is
T 3677 H37
OCP 3704 H64
10C 3649 H9
5C 3639 L1
3C 3640 accurate
AVG 3662 H22
Totals 11 /15/2010
Elementa 5219 5296
Middle 2708 2722
Hi h 3606 3640
11533 11658 +125
Model Pro'ection is
T 11874 H216
OCP 11758 H100
10C 11826 H168
5C 11750 H92
3C 11718 H60
AVG 11785 H127
H means High
L means Low
23
Section II Attachment II.B.2
(page 4 of 4)
Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District
School Membership 2010-11 School Year (November 15, 201A)
Statistical Findin~s
PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVlATIONS
'TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C)
ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C)
3-YEAR COHORT 3C
Elementary School Level
• Projections were all high, ranging from 50 students to 140 students higher than the
actual November 15, 2010 membership numbers. On average, the projections were 85
students higher than the actual membership.
• The actual membership increased by 77 students between November 13, 2009 and
November 15, 2010.
Middle School Level
• Projections were primarily high, ranging from 18 students low to 45 students higher than
the actual membership. On average, the projections were 20 students higher than the
actual membership.
• The actual membership increased by 14 students between November 13, 2009 and
November 15, 2010.
High School Level
• Projections were primarily high, ranging from 1 student below to 64 students higher than
the actual membership. On average, the projections were 22 students higher than the
actual membership.
• The actual membership increased by 34 students between November 13, 2009 and
November 15, 2010.
TOTAL
• The total of all school level projections were high, ranging from 60 to 216 students. On
average the projections were high by 127 students.
• The membership increased in total by 125 students, which is the sum of +77 at
Elementary, +14 at Middle, and +34 at High.
24
Section II
Attachment II.B.3
(page 1 of 4)
Orange County School District
School Membership 2011-12 Schooi Year (November 15, 2011)
11/15/10
Actual
2010-11 2011 Report
Projection for
2011-12
11/15/11
Actual 2011-12
Change between actual
Nov 2010 - Nov 2011
Elementa 3285 3348 +63
Model Pro'ection is
T 3343 L5
OCP 3348 accurate
10C 3366 H18
5C 3373 H25
3C 3379 H31
AVG 3362 H14
11/15/2011
Middle 1698 1704 +6
Model Pro'ection is
T 1728 H24
OCP 1729 H25
10C 1698 L6
5C 1713 H9
3C 1714 H10
AVG 1716 H12
11 /15/2011
Hi h 2222 2283 +61
Model Pro ection is
T 2261 L22
OCP 2249 L34
10C 2258 L25
5C 2273 L10
3C 2276 L7
AVG 2263 L20
11 /15/2011
Totals
Elementa 3285 3348
Middle 1698 1704
Hi h 2222 2283
7205 7335 +130
Mode Pro'ection is
T 7332 L5
OCP 7326 L9
10C 7322 L13
5C 7359 H24
3C 7369 H34
AVG 7342 H6
H means High L means ~ow
25
Sect~on II Attachment II.B.3
(page 2 of 4)
Orange County School District
School Membership 2011-2012 School Year (November 15, 2011)
Statistical Findinqs
PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS
`TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C)
ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C)
3-YEAR COHORT 3C
Elementary School Level
Projections were primarily high, ranging from 5 students low to 31 students high. The
average of the projections was 14 students higher than actual student membership.
• The membership actually increased by 63 students between November 15, 2010 and
November 15, 2011.
Middle School Level
• Projections were primarily high, ranging from 6 students low to 25 students high. On
average, the projections were 12 students higher than the actual membership.
• The membership actually increased by 6 students between November 15, 2010 and
November 15, 2011.
High School Level
• Projections were entirely low ranging from being low by 7 students to 34 students. On
average, the projections were 20 students lower than the actual membership.
• The membership actually increased by 61 students between November 15, 2010 and
November 15, 2011.
TOTAL
The totals of all school level projections were mixed low and high, ranging from 13 below
actua( membership to 34 above actual membership. On average, the projections were
high by 6 students.
• The membership increased in total by 130 students, which is the sum of +63 at
Elementary, + 6 at Middle and +61 at High.
26
Section II
Attachment II.n.~
(page 3 of 4)
Chapel Hi11/Carrboro School District
Schooi Membership 2011-2012 School Year (November 15, 2011)
11/15/10
Actual
2010-11 2011 Report
Projection for
2011-12 11/15/11
Actual
2011-12
Change between actual
Nov 2010- Nov 2011
Elementa 5296 5464 +168
Model Pro'ection is
T 5389 L75
OCP 5407 L57
10C 5419 L45
5C 5395 L69
3C 5380 L84
AVG 5398 L66
11/15/2011
Middle 2722 2753 +31
Model Pro'ection is
T 2770 H17
OCP 2733 L20
10C 2764 H11
5C 2742 L11
3C 2734 L19
AVG 2749 L4
11/15/2011
Hi h 3640 3617 +74
Model Pro'ection is
T 3704 L10
OCP 3743 H29.
10C 3679 L35
5C 3665 L49
3C 3645 L69
AVG 3687 L27
Totals 11 /15/2011
Elementa 5296 5464
Middle 2722 2753
Hi h 3640 3714
11658 11931 +273
Model Pro'ection is
T 11863 L68
OCP 11883 L48
10C 11862 L69
5C 11802 L129
3C 11759 L172
AVG 11834 L97
H means High
L means Low
27
Attachment II.B.3
Section II
(page 4 of 4)
Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District
School Membership 2011-2012 School Year (November 15, 2011)
Statistical Findinqs
PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS
`TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C)
ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C)
3-YEAR COHORT 3C
Elementary School Level
Projections were all low, ranging from 45 students to 84 students lower than the actual
November 15, 2011 membership numbers. On average, the projections were 66
students lower than the actual membership.
• The actual membership increased by 168 students between November 15, 2010 and
November 15, 2011.
Middle School Level
• Projections were primarily low, ranging from 20 students low to 17 students higher than
the actual membership. On average, the projections were 4 students lower than the
actual membership.
The actual membership increased by 31 students between November 15, 2010 and
November 15, 2011.
High School Level
Projections were primarily low, ranging from 69 students below to 29 students higher
than the actual membership. On average, the projections were 27 students lower than
the actual membership.
The actual membership increased by 74 students between November 15, 2010 and
November 15, 2011.
TOTAL
• The total of all school level projections were low, ranging from 48 to 172 students below.
On average the projections were low by 97 students.
• The membership increased in total by 273 students, which is the sum of +168 at
Elementary, +31 at Middle, and +74 at High.
28
Section II
C. Student Projections
Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change - The updating of this section will be
conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory
Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report certifications.
Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC
prior to certification.
Deftnition - The result of the average of the five student projection models represented
by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level (Elementary, Middle, and
High) for each school district (Chapel HilUCarrboro School District and Orange County
2.
School District).
Standard for:
3.
Standard for:
Chapel Hill Carrboro School District
The 5 model average discussed in Section II.B
(Student Projection Methodology)
See Attachment II.C.4
Orange County School District
The 5 model average discussed in Section II.B
(Student Projection Methodology)
See Attachment II.C.3
4. Analysis of Existing Conditions
The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show continued
growth in both systems. Variability by school level and between the School Districts is
also noted. Year-by-year percent growth is shown on the attached table as well as the
projected LOS. The projections models were updated using current (November 15)
memberships. Ten years of student membership were projected thereafter.
29
Section II
Chapel Hill Carrboro School District
Elementary
The previous year (2010-11) projections for November 2011 at this level were underestimated by
66 students. The actual change was an increase of 168 siudents. Over the previous ten years,
this level has shown varying increases in growth. From 2001 unti12003, growth steadily
increased; however, in 2004, the increase suddenly fell to an increase of only 3 additional
students. In yeaxs 2005-06 through 2008-09 student membership increased by over 100 students
per year. In 2009-10 there was a drop in membership, most likely due to the shorter enrollment
period caused by the institution of the new date rising kindergarteners must be five years old.
Following that dip, membership numbers are again increasing, with a significant jump (168
students) this year. The projections show the need for Elementary School #11 in 2012-13, versus
2013-14 as projected last year. A site has been acquired for Elementary School #11 and work
on-site has commenced. The school is scheduled to open in the fall of 2013. However, if the
2012 membership numbers (to be reported November 15, 2012) and/or CAPS issued /requested
meet or exceed the Elementary level capacity, the issuance of further CAPS may be impacted
until Elementary School #11 is opened and additional Elementary level capacity is added.
Although not included in SAPFO school capacity or membership numbers, Pre-K programs
continue to impact operations at District elementary schools where Pre-K programs exist.
Middle
The previous year (2010-11) projections for November 2011 for this level were underestimated
by 4 students. The actual membership increased by 31. Over the previous ten years, growth
decreased precipitously from 214 to 68 to 4, to -52 and then has seen modest increases of +12,
+20, +30, +75, + 1 l, +14 and +31 since 2004. The projections show a need for Middle School
#5 in 2017-18, which is one year earlier than projected last yeax.
High School
The previous year (2010-11) projections for November 2011 for this level were underestimated
by 27 students. The actual membership increased by 74 students. Over the previous ten years,
change has varied from a high of 199 students to the 2009-10 school year loss of 24 students.
Membership has increased the past two years with +34 in 2010-11 and+'74 this year. This year's
30
Section II
projections show that additional capacity is needed in 2020-21, whereas last year's projections
did not show a need in the 10-year projection time frame. Additional High School capacity is
expected to be achieved by expanding Carrboro High School from 800 students to 1,200
students, which was included in the construction plans for the high school.
Orange County School District
Elementary
The previous year (2010-11) projections for November 2011 at this level were overestimated by
14 students. 'The actual membership increased by 63 students. Over the previous ten years, this
level has experienced erratic enrollment which changed from -185 to +8 to +44 to +71 to -10 to
+66 to +86 to +7, +46, +74, and +64 students a yeax. This created a historical base of negative
growth which was captured by the various mathematical models to produce moderate growth
projections. However, the membership numbers have shown steady increase in recent years. In
the Orange County school system, historic growth is more closely related to new residential
development than in the Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District, which has a sizeable number of
new families in older, existing housing stock. Projections show the need for an additional
Elementary School in 2020-21.
Although not included in SAPFO school capacity or membership numbers, Pre-K programs
continue to impact operations at District elementary schools where Pre-K programs exist.
Middle
The previous year (2010-11) projections for November 2011 for this level were overestimated by
12 students. The actual membership increased by 6. Over the previous ten years, growth has
varied widely and included an unexpected decrease of 78 students in 2004-OS with smaller
decreases each year unti12007-08 and then increasing the past three years. The district's third
Middle School, Gravelly Hill Middle School, opened in October 2006. The need for an
additional Middle School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. However, staff is
closely monitoring new sizeable residential projects in the Orange County portion of Mebane
and Hillsborough.
31
Section II
x~gn s~~ooi
'The previous year (2010-11) projections for November 2011 for this level were underestimated
by 20 students. The actual membership increased by 61. Over the previous ten years, growth
was relatively constant. However, there was a decrease in enrollment in 2009-10 and only
modest increase of +5 students last year. Membership increased by +61 this school year. Even
though historic growth at the high school level is moderate and recognizable, future projections
are more moderate because of the fluctuations at the elementary and middle school levels. The
need for an additional High School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. However,
Orange County Schools has requested the N.C. Departrnent of Public Instruction (DPI) re-
examine the capacity rating of Orange High School. This assessment could result in a significant
decrease in capacity at the high school level. Any capacity modifications approved by DPI prior
to the November 15, 2012 reporting date would become effective with the approval of the 2012-
13 membership and capacity numbers.
Additional Information for Orange County School District
The City of Mebane lies partially within Orange County and students within the Orange County
portion of Mebane attend Orange County schools. However, the City of Mebane is not a party to
the SAPFO agreement and therefore does not issue CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public
Schools). In previous years, development activity and platting of new subdivisions increased
within the Orange County portion of Mebane. However, changing economic conditions may
curb this activity.
Increased coordination with the City of Mebane regarding development issues may be necessary
in the future. OCS currently has capacity to serve additional growth, but it is possible that
development in the Orange County portion of Mebane could quickly encumber available
capacity.
5. Recommendation -
Use statistics as noted in 3 above
32
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Section II
D. Student Growth Rate
1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be
conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, Technical Advisory
Committee (SAPFOTAC) each year and referred to the BOCC for annual report
certification.
Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC
prior to certification.
2. Definition —The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections resulting
from the average of the five models represented by 10 year numerical membership
projections by school level for each school district. This does not represent the year-by-
year growth rate that may be positive or negative but rather the average of the annual
growth rates over ten(10)years.
3. Standard for: Standard for:
Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District
See Attachment ILD.2 See Attachment II.D.2
4. Analysis of Existing Conditions Analysis of Existing Conditions
The membership figures and percentage The membership figures and percentage
growth on the attachments show continued growth on the attachments show continued
growth at each school level within the growth at each school level within the
system. system.
Average Annual Growth Rate over ten years: Average Annual Growth Rate over ten years:
Year Projection Year Projection
Made: 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Made: 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-112011-12
Elementary 1.85% 1.5% 1.72% 1.44% 1.59% Elementary 1.84% 1.16% 1.34% 1.57% 1.6%
Middle 2.58% 2.03% 1.93% 1.67% 1.94% Middle 1.78% 1.44% 1.53% 1.84% 2.01%
High 2.31% 1 2.21% 1.8% 1.57% 1 1.73% High 1.49% 1.0% 1.38% 1.59% 1.61%
S. Recommendation Recommendation
Use statistics as noted. Use statistics as noted
37
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:Ls� ..t�t2s..f. 3tt y_ ,�t,{. Q:l t�::l-.J�2 �
. �2U 1(tl� 3Vi..2F),.. ..ti:,�-uU<< s,.-s�a._ vx�-_v:� ,.0#b-_iif .�ir_ t, r I
JCt�4ut�.'i:Bl' '. �.. C � . � � ', i
.a r aE; � � � � ��
I ue�nba�sliin � � � 3 � 2.?9"0 � 2,880 '� %.930 r.949 2,987 � 3.069 �, 3,18'� I 26C � "29$ � 3,336 �
.�,vz�� e�'�'ncrease � �.56% �22% ' '�.52°10 J.E5% 129% I 2.75% � 3.05% i 8% J^:7% � 1.1�% I
I
wiah Schccl
SC6t341 Ye&F 3I}Y�-24�! Zff3?._... v�,..�3:Tw �i=�,�t_ �?_+_,�� ��6S£?f3`." .,_,.-�J�8 "�:5 y6., .R.T.1-2tk?6 � ?�3�r-iu?3 � 'GZ:-20:s2 �
aetuai i
i ivtembcrsltii �,714' 3.783 � 3,8% t,863 3.93? 4,C18 ^,093 =,10. T 4.208�----�S45 =-.408
.Avera�2°,bt�Crease 'i.86% " 0°/ 1.1% -- �.92% 2.Oo% 8!% !.1% I 1.�9% =..�51% �.33%
Saurze�.3,U,udcl G<;mpilatioa from PSTAC mtmbcrs:u d t rr n:av;caRC based on�o�mbcr i 5,2U 1 I mc:�b:rsl q.n.� ���.,�nd I i� �c�1 data
^ a
-l?range C°ou�ty�lmir� ,and L-.pc�:ons i7 p m^rit Ex��,.�uca�:Ts� -i Cr th.�Kal^6-v�rcn,g2s � W
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Section II
E. Student / Mousing Generation Rate
1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be
conducted by Planning Directors, School Representatives, Technical Advisory
Committee(SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for certification.
Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the BOCC
prior to certification.
2. Definition —A projected number of students that are generated from four different types
of housing, "single-family detached", "single-family attached", "multifamily", and
"manufactured homes", as defined in Appendix C to the 2007 TischlerBise School
Impact Fee Report.
3. Standard for: Standard for:
Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District
See Attachment II.E.1 See Attachment II.E.1
40
Section II
4. Analysis of Existing Conditions
On October 6,2009,the Orange County Board of Commissioners approved the updated
Student Generation Rates as recommended by the SAPFOTAC. The newly adopted
Student Generation Rates became effective the 2010-11 school year with the November
15, 2010 CAPS system update. The current standards are shown in Attachment II.E.1.
Even though the Student Generation Rates were recently adopted for SAPFO, both
Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools have recognized a larger
increase in students generated from developments in both districts,particularly the multi-
family housing. The SAPFOTAC discussed the increased number of students generated
in both districts. While this may be a short term trend caused by the current economic
climate or other factors,the SAPFOTAC recommends further evaluation of the adopted
Student Generation Rates.
Also, it should be noted that students are generated from new housing as well as from
existing housing where new families have moved in. The CAPS system estimates new
development impacts and associated student generation but it is important to understand
that student increases are a composite of both of these factors. This effect can be
dramatic and can vary greatly between areas and districts where either new housing is
dominant or new families move into a large inventory of existing housing stock.
5. Recommendation —No Change
The SAPFOTAC does not recommend a change at this time. However, the SAPFOTAC
recommends further evaluation of the Student Generation Rates to determine whether a
change is warranted.
41
. �
�
�
�.
0
�
�
TischierBise Student Generation Rates - 2007 I�I
Cha el HEit-Carrboro Schools II
p
Elementary Middie High Ait Grades
Single-Family Detached 0.263 0.143 0.197 0.603
Singls-�amily Attached 0.158 0.077 0.115 0.350
Ntultifamily 0.038 0.015 0.017 Q.070
Manufactured Homes 0.141 0.066 0.061 0.268
All Housing Types 0.149 0.078 0.105 0.332
I
Orange Count� Schools
Elementary Middle High Ail Grades
Single-Fami(y Detached 0.168 0.090 0.126 0.384 �'
Single-Family Attached/ p,066 0.422 0.034 0.122
Multifamity
a
Manufactured Homes OA96 0.041 0.049 0.186 �
Alt Housing Types 0.145 0.074 0.102 U.321 �
�
�
�
i�
�
�
N � • Source: School Impact Fees-Orange County Schools,TischlerBise,Aecember 3 i,2007�
Section III
III. FLOWCHART OF SCHOOLS ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES
ORDINANCE PROCESS
Abstract: The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance process has two distinct
components:
A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (Process 1)
Timeframe: In November of each year, Student Membership and Building Capacity is
transmitted from the school districts to the Orange County Board of Commissioners for
consideration and approval and used in the following years CIP (e.g. November 15, 2004
membership numbers used to develop a CIP to be considered for adoption in June, 2005).
Process Framework
1. SAPFOTAC projects future student membership from historical data, current
membership and hypothetical growth rates from established methodologies.
2. School Districts and BOCC compare projections to existing capacity and
proposed Capital Investment Plan.
3. SAPFOTAC forwards data and projections to all Schools APFO partners.
4. School Districts develop Capital Investment Plan Needs Assessment during this
process
5. The Capital Investment Plan work sessions and Public Hearings are conducted by
the BOCC in the spring of each year.
6. The adoption of CIP that sets forth monies and timeframe for school construction
(future capacity) by BOCC.
43
Section III
School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance
Process 1 - Capital Investment Planning (CIP)
CIP CAPS
Proj ection Method Approval System2
(Historical Membershipl � (Proposed New Construction � (Certificate of
plus Hypothetical Growth Rate i.e. School Capacity Adequate Public
Added b number seats & ear) Schools
T ,�
Actual Adjustments � �� � � �
(Current Year Actual Replaces Past Year
Membership Projection) ,
1Historical Membership is a product of students generated from: (1)pre-existing/approved undeveloped lots where new housing is built,(2) —
existing housing stock with new families/children,and(3)newly approved housing development(in the future this component will be known as �
CAPS approved development) �,
ZThe only part of the CAPS System(i.e., computer spreadsheet subdivision tracking)that receives data from the Process 1 CIP includes the actual �
membership(November 15 of preceding CIP year)and new school capacity amount(seats)in a specific year pursuant to the CIP. 9
�
44
Section III
B. Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance
Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS)
Update (Process 2)
Timeframe: The CAPS system is updated approximately November 15 of each year when the
school districts report actual membership and `pre-certified' capacity, whether it is CIP
associated or prior `joint action' agreement. `Joint action' determinations of changes in capacity
due to State rules or other non-construction related items are anticipated to be done prior to the
November 15 capacity and membership reporting date. This update may reflect the Board of
County Commissioners action on the earlier year Capital Investment Plan(CIP)as it affects
capacity and addition of new actual fall membership. The Schools Adequate Public Facilities
Ordinance Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) stays in effect until the following year
—(e.g.:November 15, 2005 to November 14, 2006).
New development is originally logged for a certain year. As the CAPS system is updated,each
CAPS projection year is `absorbed' by the actual estimate of a given year. Later year CAPS
projections of the same development remain in the future year CAPS system accordingly. For
example, if a 50-lot subdivision is issued a CAPS, 15 lots may be assigned to "Year 1," 10 lots to
"Year 2," 10 lots to"Year 3," 10 lots to"Year 4,"and 5 lots to "Year 5." When"Year 1"is
updated,the students generated from the 15 lots are absorbed by the actual estimate. The
students generated in"Years 2, 3,4, and 5"are held in the CAPS system and added to the
appropriate year when the CAPS system is updated.
As was discussed in Section II.C, The City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO and does not
issue CAPS. However,residential development within the Orange County portion of Mebane
has increased dramatically in the last two years and over 1,000 residential lots are currently
undeveloped. Increasing development within this area of the county has the potential to
encumber a significant portion of the available capacity within the Orange County School
District.
45
Section III
Please note that the two processes (CIP and CAPS) are on separate but parallel tracks. However,
the CIP does create a crossover of capacity information between the two processes. For
example,the Schools APFO system for both school districts that will be established/initiated/
certified each year in November and is based on prior year created and/or planned CIP capacity
and current school year membership. The SAPFOTAC report including new current year
membership and projections are to be used for upcoming CIP development as noted in Process 1.
CIP Process 1 (for CIP 2009—2019)
November 2008—June 2009(using 2009 SAPFOTAC Report)
Schools APFO CAPS Process 2 (for Schools APFO System 2009—2010)
November 2009 -November 2010
46
_ I
Section Ill '
School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance !
Process 2 - Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) Allocation
2008 CAPS system is effective November 15, 2007 through November 14, 2008.
The system is updated with new membership, CIP capacity changes, and any other BOCC/School District joint
action approved capacity prior to November 15, 2007. This information is received within 5 days of November 15
and posted within the next 15 days. This CAPS system recalibration is retroactive to November 15, 2007.
CAPS Allocation System CAPS System
1. Certified Capacity AC2=S C2 - (ADM2+ND 12+ND22+o . .)
2 LOS Capacity
3. Actual Membership
4. Year Start Available Capacity
5. Ongoing Current Available Capacity(includes available
capacity decreases from approved CAPS development by
ye�� AC>_0 - Issue CAPS
6. CAPS approved development
a. Tot�units AC<0 - Defer CAPS to later date
b. Single Familyl
c. Other Housingl
'Student Generation Rates from CAPS housing type create future membership estimate. Please note that this CAPS membership future estimate is
different than the pro'ec� tion based on historical data and projection models used in the CIP process l. This estimate only captures new
development impact,which is the component that the SAPFO can regulate. �
��
ZAC- Available Capacity- Starts at Annual Update Capacity and reduces as CAPS approved development is entered into the system. �
SC- Certified School Level Capacity �*
�
ADM-Average Daily Membership �
ND - New Development;ND1 means first approved CAPS approved development �' ,
�
47